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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 228, 00-11-27Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 228, 27 November 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT AMENDS ELECTION LEGISLATIONFollowing a two-day debate, deputies voted by 95 to five to adopt in the first reading an amendment to the election law that increases from 56 to 94 the number of seats in the 131-person legislature allocated under the party- list system, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 22 November. It is unclear, however, when the amendment will take effect: while several minority factions argue that the amendment should take effect immediately, the majority Miasnutiun faction wants its implementation delayed until 2003, when the present parliament's mandate expires. LF[02] AZERBAIJANI AUTHORITIES BAN PLANNED OPPOSITION RALLYThe Baku municipal administration on 23 November withdrew oral permission given earlier to the Union of Azerbaijani Forces, which unites the Vahdat, Namus, and Social-Democratic Parties, to stage a rally in the city on 25 November to protest the falsification of the outcome of the 5 November parliamentary election, Turan reported. Representatives of the Democratic, Liberal, and Azerbaijan National Independence Parties and of the reformist wing of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (AHCP) had also planned to attend that protest. On 22 November, Azerbaijan's Constitutional Court approved the election results for 88 of the 99 single-mandate constituencies but ordered new elections in the remaining 11, Interfax reported. According to Turan, 79 of the 88 deputies elected figured on the list made public by Social Justice Party leader Matlab Mutallimli in October (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 October 2000). LF[03] TWO AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTIES SIGN COOPERATION AGREEMENTThe leaders of the Azerbaijan National Independence Party and the reformist wing of the AHCP, Etibar Mamedov and Ali Kerimov, have signed a five-point cooperation agreement, Turan reported on 24 November. That agreement is aimed at having the election results canceled and new elections called. It also specifies the unification of opposition forces as a goal. LF[04] AZERBAIJAN'S PARLIAMENTARY CHAIRMAN RE-ELECTEDMurtuz Alesqerov was re-elected speaker of Azerbaijan's parliament by a vote of 100 to one when the new legislature met for its first session on 24 November, Turan and Reuters reported. Analysts had anticipated that President Heidar Aliev's son Ilham would be named speaker. Opposition deputies boycotted the session, with the exception of Musavat party member Vahid Samedoglu, who told Turan that his responsibility to those who voted for him did not permit him to comply with the opposition's call for a boycott. An emergency session of Musavat's steering committee expelled Samedoglu from the party later the same day. LF[05] EARTHQUAKE IN AZERBAIJAN CLAIMS 26 LIVESAt least 26 people died and almost 300 were injured when an earthquake hit Azerbaijan late on 25 November. Most of the casualties were in Baku. President Aliev criticized the country's seismological service the following day for failing to respond fast enough to the emergency. He said the quake caused no "large-scale destruction." LF[06] ITERA BEGINS GAS DELIVERIES TO AZERBAIJANThe gas export corporation ITERA began supplying natural gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan on 23 November, Turan and ITAR-TASS reported. Deliveries should have begun in early November but were delayed because Russia's Customs Committee had not issued the permit required for transit across the Russian Federation (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 November 2000). LF[07] GEORGIA REJECTS RUSSIAN CONDITIONS FOR DROPPING VISA REQUIREMENT...Georgian Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili told the Georgian parliament on 25 November that during his talks with Russian officials in Moscow earlier in the week the latter had spelled out the conditions under which Moscow is prepared to drop its insistence on a visa regime for travel between the two countries, Caucasus Press reported. The Russian demands are that Georgia adopt a "neutral" position in the Chechen conflict, accede to the Eurasian Economic Community created last month on the basis of the CIS Customs Union, moderate its negotiating position on the closure of the Russian military bases in Georgia, and take into consideration Russia's interests in the export of Caspian oil and gas. It is not clear whether the latter requirement means that Russia wants Georgia to pull out of the Baku- Ceyhan oil export pipeline project. Menagharishvili told deputies that while Tbilisi is interested in "constructive dialogue" with Russia, it will never agree to such demands. LF[08] ...AS DEPUTIES PROPOSE THAT GEORGIA SHOULD QUIT CISReacting to Menagharishvili's remarks, several deputies proposed on 24 November that Georgia should withdraw from the CIS, Caucasus Press reported. That proposal was supported by Union of Traditionalists leader Akaki Asatiani, National Democratic Party leader Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia, and majority Union of Citizens of Georgia (SMK) faction member Irakli Gogava. Revaz Adamia, who heads the SMK faction, said he would not rule out the possibility of Georgia's quitting the CIS. But Menagharishvili told journalists the following day that doing so is not in Georgia's interest. LF[09] FIRST DEPUTY PREMIER DISMISSED IN KAZAKHSTANInterfax on 23 November quoted the presidential press service as saying that President Nursultan Nazarbaev had fired Aleksandr Pavlov from the post of first deputy prime minister in connection with another, unspecified appointment. Pavlov, who is 47, had occupied that post since September 1996; he had also served as finance minister from 1994-1998, according to Reuters. On 22 November, government press secretary Rasul Zhumaly told RFE/RL's Kazakh Service that Pavlov is on vacation and will not return to work before the end of November. The Kazakh press had reported several days earlier that Pavlov had fled to Russia after Prime Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev rejected his voluntary resignation. According to a second, as yet unconfirmed report, Pavlov has been appointed director of the giant KazakhMys copper smelter. LF[10] AUTHOR OF BOOK ON CORRUPTION IN KAZAKHSTAN BROUGHT TO TRIALThe trial of Temirtas Tleulesov, author of a book detailing official corruption in that city, opened in Shymkent on 23 November, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. Tleulesov is accused of propagating "false materials." His son was arrested earlier last week on charges of illegal timber- felling. LF[11] JOURNALISTS IN KAZAKHSTAN DISCUSS AMENDMENTS TO MEDIA LAWSeveral hundred representatives of electronic media met in Almaty on 23 November to assess the probable impact of new restrictions on broadcasting foreign programming, RFE/RL's bureau in the former capital reported. Amendments to the existing law proposed by the cabinet earlier this month reduce to 20 percent the proportion of all air time that may be devoted to the retransmission of foreign programs. Independent radio and television stations that rely heavily on rebroadcasting Russian-language materials may be forced to reduce their air time. Qaraghandy journalist Aleksandr Zharkov complained to the meeting that it is "almost impossible" to find professional journalists who are fluent in Kazakh. LF[12] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION LEADER'S SENTENCE CUTThe Bishkek City Court on 24 November slashed the prison terms it handed down in September to eight men found guilty of plotting to assassinate President Askar Akaev, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 September 2000). Topchubek Turgunaliev, who was found guilty of masterminding the alleged plot, had his sentence commuted from 16 to six years, while his codefendants' sentences were reduced from 16-17 years to 4- 5 years. But the court upheld its original ruling on the confiscation of all the defendants' property. The eight men intend to appeal the court ruling and demand their acquittal. LF[13] KYRGYZ AUTHORITIES PLAN NEW ROUND TABLE WITH OPPOSITIONPresidential administration official Arslan Anarbaev told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service on 24 November that the country's leadership plans to hold another roundtable discussion on the political situation in late December. The Kyrgyz authorities, the opposition, the media and NGOs will each send 21 representatives to that forum. The OSCE office in Bishkek will also send a representative. Opposition parties and NGOs boycotted an earlier roundtable in June after the authorities increased the number of participants at the last minute (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 and 9 June 2000). LF[14] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT FAILS TO LIFT MORATORIUM ON LAND OWNERSHIPThe People's Assembly--the upper house of the Kyrgyz parliament--twice failed on 23 November to abrogate the five-year moratorium on the private ownership of land imposed after the electorate voted in favor of that measure in a referendum in late 1998, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Deputies began debating the issue on 22 November, but both votes the following day were invalid. Interfax on 23 November quoted Communist Party leader Absamat Masaliev as claiming that the Kyrgyz government is under pressure from the IMF to abrogate the moratorium. LF[15] AFGHAN REFUGEES KILLED IN FIGHTING ON AFGHAN-TAJIK BORDERAn unknown number of Afghans fleeing the fighting in northern Afghanistan were killed by artillery fire in southern Tajikistan during the night of 26- 27 November, Reuters reported. In related news, Kazakhstan's Foreign Minister Erlan Idrisov on 23 November denied that Kazakhstan has offered the U.S. the use of bases on its territory to launch air strikes against Afghanistan, Interfax reported. Also on 23 November, Interfax reported that Turkmen presidential envoy and former Foreign Minister Boris Shikhmuradov was to travel to Beijing for talks on the situation in Afghanistan. LF[16] TURKMEN OFFICIALS SACKED FOR POOR COTTON HARVESTTouring the eastern provinces of Mary and Lebap on 22-23 November, President Saparmurat Niyazov fired dozens of local officials for failing to meet the planned cotton harvest targets, Reuters and Interfax reported. The country's total yield this year was 1.03 million tons, short of the 1.3 million target (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 November 2000). Niyazov also criticized leaders in Mary for deploying women and children to help harvest the cotton crop. LF[17] TURKMENISTAN TO INCREASE GAS SALES TO IRANThe co-chairmen of the Turkmen-Iranian bilateral commission for economic cooperation, Turkmen Deputy Premier Khudaikuly Khalykov and Iranian Transport Minister Mahmoud Hojjati, initialed an agreement in Ashgabat on 25 November on supplies of Turkmen gas to the Iranian border town of Daragaz, ITAR-TASS reported. Speaking two days earlier at the commission's fifth session, Hojjati also expressed interest in increasing transit transportation between the two countries. Bilateral trade turnover for the first nine months of this year totaled $214 million, compared with $229 million for the whole of 1999. LF[18] UZBEK PRESIDENT VISITS ITALYOn a two-day official visit to Rome and Venice on 22-23 November, Islam Karimov met with his Italian counterpart, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, and had a short audience with Pope John Paul II, Interfax reported. Six inter- governmental agreements were signed during the visit, including one by Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov and his Italian counterpart, Lamberto Dini, on cooperation in combating terrorism and organized crime. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[19] ETHNIC ALBANIANS FLEE SERBIA FOR KOSOVASome 1,200 ethnic Albanians fled the Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac region of southwestern Serbia for Kosova on 26 November, according to the UNHCR office in Prishtina, London's "The Guardian" reported. Several hundred ethnic Albanians had left Serbia for Kosova in previous days. Refugees said that they fled following a recent buildup of Serbian police and army forces in the area. They added that many more Albanians wanted to leave but were prevented from doing so by Serbian forces. On 27 November, one Albanian was killed and several injured when their tractor hit a land mine in the Presevo area, Reuters reported. PM[20] SECURITY COUNCIL WARNS ALBANIAN MILITANTSTensions have grown in southwestern Serbia following the recent killing of three Serbian policemen by members of the ethnic Albanian Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac (UCPMB) (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 November 2000). On 23 November, the UN Security Council condemned the killings and called for a thorough investigation and for the killers to be punished, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The UCPMB regards itself as the defender of the region's ethnic Albanian population. It declared a unilateral cease-fire over the weekend. The Serbian view is that the UCPMB is an illegal organization of "terrorists and separatists." PM[21] SERBIA GIVES NATO DEADLINESerbian Democratic Opposition leader Zoran Djindjic said in Belgrade on 23 November that the tense situation on the border between Serbia and Kosova could lead to a "real war," the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. In Zagreb the following day, Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica called Kosova "the biggest problem in Europe," "Vesti" reported. The Serbian Interior Ministry said in a statement that NATO must stop "terrorists" from entering Serbia from Kosova by the evening of 27 November, AP reported. If the infiltration and attacks continue, Serbian police will enter the 5- kilometer buffer zone along the border with Kosova "with the means that are available," Bozo Prelevic said. He is one of three interior ministers in the transitional Serbian government. On 27 November, however, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic said near Bujanovac that the deadline is "simply postponed" indefinitely to give diplomacy a chance. AP reported, however, that a military buildup is under way on either side. NATO has called on the two sides to show restraint. PM[22] YUGOSLAV LEADER CALLS FOR TALKS...Kostunica said in Belgrade on 25 November that "solutions imposed from the outside will bring nothing good to Kosovo or Serbia or Yugoslavia or the Balkans. That is why I think it is necessary to start a dialogue. I am convinced that a solution can be found," AP reported. He called on moderate ethnic Albanian leader Ibrahim Rugova to open talks on the future of Kosova. Kostunica wants Kosova to remain part of Serbia, while all ethnic Albanian parties seek independence. The next day in Mitrovica, local Serbian leader Oliver Ivanovic endorsed the idea of Serbian-Albanian talks. He stressed, however, that Albanian leaders should first discuss the situation in the Presevo region with officials of the international community, the EU, NATO, and the U.S., RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[23] ...EXPRESSES CONCERN FOR STABILITYKostunica said in Belgrade on 26 November that it is necessary for Serbian officials to preserve human life in the Presevo region and to avoid provocations, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He stressed that Serbia must observe its international obligations and engage in dialogue with the international community, KFOR, and the UN administration in Kosova, as well as with what he called those people among the Kosova Albanians who are ready to talk. The next day in Vienna, he said that the current tensions could "set the region ablaze," Reuters reported. He added that "it is crystal clear that KFOR and UNMIK (the UN administration in Kosovo) have failed to do their part of the job properly." Observers suggest that the Presevo tensions could undermine Kostunica's political position at home and abroad in the run-up to the 23 December Serbian parliamentary elections. Such difficulties for Kostunica could, in turn, benefit former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and his Socialists. PM[24] MODERATE POLITICIAN KILLED IN KOSOVAAn unknown gunman or gunmen killed Xhemail Mustafa in Prishtina on 23 November, a UN spokesman said. Mustafa was a well-known journalist and aide to Rugova, AP reported. PM[25] SERBIAN LEADER CALLS FOR COURT CASE AGAINST MILOSEVICZoran Zivkovic, who is a vice president of Djindjic's Democratic Party and Yugoslav interior minister, said in Belgrade on 26 November that legal charges should be brought against Milosevic for "spreading false news and for slander," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Zivkovic argued that Milosevic's description of the current Yugoslav leadership as "traitors and mercenaries" at his Socialist congress the previous day constituted grounds for a lawsuit. The congress elected Milosevic party president (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 November 2000). Officials of the Hague-based war crimes tribunal and the U.S. government subsequently criticized the public appearance of Milosevic, who is an indicted war criminal, and called for his arrest. PM[26] CROATIAN PRESIDENT HAILS BALKAN SUMMITPresident Stipe Mesic said in Zagreb on 24 November that the one-day summit between the EU and western Balkan leaders showed that "Europe is our destiny" and that "this common Europe is going to rule out war as a political approach," AP reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 November 2000). He stressed, however, that "it is an illusion even to talk about normalizing relations [with Belgrade]...as long as there is no full cooperation with the UN [war crimes] tribunal." Mesic described protests against the summit by several hundred right-wing opponents of the government as "hiccups." The protesters had expected several thousand demonstrators to join them. PM[27] EU SAYS DOOR IS OPEN TO NEW MEMBERSLeaders of the EU signed a "stabilization and association agreement" with Macedonian officials at the 24 November Zagreb summit (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " 21 November 2000). The EU representatives also told representatives of all the countries of the region that the door to EU membership is open to them. Brussels will make $4 billion in economic aid available to the region and admit some 95 percent of its agricultural and industrial products duty free. French President Jacques Chirac said, however, that "we expect something in return," AP reported. Javier Solana, who is the EU's chief spokesman for foreign and security affairs, said that what Brussels wants is "good neighborliness, demilitarization of the region, development of regional infrastructure, economic cooperation, [as well as] cooperation against transnational challenges--illegal immigration, organized crime, [and] money laundering." PM[28] YUGOSLAV LEADER CLAIMS SPECIAL ROLE WITH EUKostunica told participants in the 24 November Zagreb summit that "Europe" must take the lead in Balkan affairs and not yield the main role there to an unnamed "outside power," as it did in the 1999 Kosova crisis, the BBC reported. He added that "we are now on the threshold of a lasting peace among member states of the former Yugoslavia, and this offers my country and the EU an opportunity to rise to the task of envisaging a future of true peace in Europe," AP reported. After returning to Belgrade, Kostunica told reporters that Yugoslavia currently "is closer to the EU than is any other country of the region," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He did not elaborate. The next day, he and Romano Prodi, who heads the EU Commission, signed an agreement in Belgrade paving the way for talks leading toward a stabilization and association agreement between Yugoslavia and the EU. PM[29] MANY QUESTIONS STILL OPEN AFTER BALKAN SUMMITChirac told the 24 November Balkan summit that "it is in the interest of everybody that [those who committed war] crimes be tried and punished," AP reported. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said, however, that Belgrade "must be given time to achieve political stability" before the EU calls on it to bring war criminals to justice. Bernard Kouchner, who is the UN's chief civilian administrator in Kosova, said that EU leaders no longer support his proposal for general elections in the province in the spring, Reuters reported. He stressed that the failure to hold elections will serve to alienate Kosova's ethnic Albanian majority, whose political leaders demand that the province's political status be settled soon. Kouchner also accused unnamed EU leaders of "ignoring" UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which provides the legal basis for his administration, and of seeking a new, unspecified regional agreement. PM[30] MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT CALLS FOR REFERENDUMMilo Djukanovic told the Zagreb summit on 24 November that for all practical purposes, Montenegro is now an independent country, Hina reported. He added that he expects his government to hold a referendum on independence within the first six months of 2001. Djukanovic argued that it is a fiction to maintain that a united Yugoslav state exists. He called instead for Belgrade and Podgorica to redefine their relationship proceeding from the "fact" that they are two independent states, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[31] NO RECOUNTS NECESSARY IN REPUBLIKA SRPSKABosnian Serb President-elect Mirko Sarovic said in Moscow on 24 November that he supports the Dayton agreements, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 November 2000). But Sarovic, who won the presidency outright in the first round, added that he believes that some "finishing touches" are needed for the agreements, particularly regarding the right of refugees to return to their pre-1992 homes and reclaim their property. PM[32] EARLY ELECTIONS FOR MACEDONIA?Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski said in Skopje on 26 November that he does not rule out early elections following the recent threat by Deputy Prime Minister Vasil Tupurkovski to leave the governing coalition, Reuters reported. Georgievski called for parliament to meet on 28 November to replace the five cabinet members of Tupurkovski's Democratic Alternative. PM[33] ROMANIANS VOTE FOR THE PAST AND FOR EXTREMISTSPreliminary results of the 26 November presidential and parliamentary elections confirm pollsters' predictions and several exit polls suggesting that former President Ion Iliescu will face extremist Greater Romania Party (PRM) leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor in a runoff. With more than 39 percent of the votes counted, Iliescu has a 36.5 percent lead over Tudor's 29 percent. Iliescu's Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) appears set to become the largest party in the new parliament (37 percent), followed by the PRM (20-21 percent). The Democratic Party came third with 7.5 percent, according to the preliminary results, but exit polls indicated that the PNL (6.9-7.3) will occupy that position. The Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR) received 6 percent support, while the Democratic Convention of Romania 2000 has been ousted from the legislature. MS[34] LIST OF SECURITATE INFORMERS PRODUCES SURPRISESThe National Council for the Study of the Former Securitate Archives on 22 November released a partial list of parliamentary candidates who were informers of the communist-era secret police. The council said it has not yet completed screening the candidates of the Democratic Party and the PRM and that only candidates of those parties with the best electoral chances have been examined. Among those mentioned as an informer is PNL leader Mircea Ionescu-Quintus, who has rejected that accusation and said he will appeal the council's decision. Fourteen Democratic Convention of Romania 2000 candidates, nine candidates from the PDSR, four from the UDMR, three from the PNL, two each from the Democratic Party, the Alliance for Romania and from the PRM, and one from the National Alliance were said to have been either active informers, "informers whose activity cannot be proved by documentation," or members of the Securitate. MS[35] TWO TO COMPETE IN MOLDOVAN PRESIDENTIAL BALLOTParty of Moldovan Communists (PCM) leader Vladimir Voronin and Constitutional Court chairman Pavel Barbalat will compete in the Moldovan presidential elections on 1 December, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. Voronin was chosen by his party on 23 November. He can count on the backing of 40 PCM deputies, but in order to be elected, Voronin must receive the endorsement of 61 lawmakers. Barbalat's candidacy was proposed by a coalition formed by the Democratic Party, the Democratic Convention of Moldova, and the Popular Party Christian Democratic and was endorsed by several independent deputies close to President Petru Lucinschi. Barbalat is estimated to have the support of between 50 and 60 deputies. If the parliament fails to elect a president after two rounds, Lucinschi can dissolve that body and call new elections. MS[36] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT REPLACES FOREIGN, EDUCATION MINISTERSPresident Petru Lucinschi on 22 November dismissed Nicolae Tabacaru as foreign minister in connection with the latter's appointment to another, unspecified post and appointed Nicolae Cernomaz to replace him, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. Cernomaz, who is close to Lucinschi, has been ambassador to Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Meanwhile, former Education Minister Ion Gutu will return to his position at the Moldovan Pedagogical University. He is to be replaced by Ilie Vancea, a PCM member. MS[37] BULGARIAN PREMIER ENVISAGES EARLY SOLUTION TO EU VISA DISPUTEPrime Minister Ivan Kostov told the parliament on 23 November that he hopes the European Assembly will decide in March 2001 to lift visa restrictions on Bulgarians, Reuters reported. Kostov said he has received assurances in Brussels that Bulgaria's progress toward EU membership will not be judged by the success of "regional initiatives," nor would his country be "grouped with other countries in the Balkans"--an allusion to Romania. On 26 November, some 3,000 people demonstrated in Sofia against the visa requirement, AP reported. MS[C] END NOTE[38] REPORT WARNS OF MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN EASTERN EUROPEBy Breffni O'RourkeEarlier this month, an international conference in The Netherlands devoted to climate change could hardly have asked for more dramatic scenes to underscore the impact on mankind of unstable weather. In the run-up to the summit in the Dutch city of The Hague, gales raced in from the Atlantic, bringing mountainous seas and tearing at Europe's western fringes. Flood waters engulfed wide areas of central and southern England, driving people from their homes. Meanwhile, other areas of the Continent enjoyed unseasonable mildness. Not that this sequence of events is unique: November has always brought gales and rains, and sometimes sunshine. Rather, it is the changing combination of these phenomena in record or near-record doses that suggests the degree of climatic instability we are facing. Although there is no direct proof that any single weather disaster is the result of man-made global warming, the scientific community is increasingly convinced by indirect evidence of a linkage. A new report, issued by British-led scientists and funded by the EU, suggests global warming will affect Central and Eastern Europe in a number of ways starting around 2020. It says experimental models predict that temperatures in Europe will warm at a rate between 0.1 degree Celsius per decade and 0.4 degree per decade. This trend will be most marked in the northeast, including Western Russia and Finland, and in the Mediterranean region. This means the north and center of the Continent, including the Baltic states, will experience milder winters and warmer though possibly wetter summers. This means northern plant and animal communities will come under increasing pressure as habitat conditions change. And agriculture will have to make adjustments. One of the scientists contributing to the report, Helsinki-based Tim Carter, told RFE/RL that "it's quite possible that different types of crops could be grown in northern regions than are grown at present...and there may also be over the longer term a shift in tree distribution, broad leaf trees replacing the current evergreens that are grown in northern parts towards the Arctic Circle. On the other hand, one might also expect new pests and diseases of these species also to move northwards, so it is not all positive." Such rapid change would bring with it a need for the re-education of farmers and foresters, as well as much experimentation, some of it likely to be painful. And there might be other drawbacks. "Some of the crops that are grown in the northern and central regions of Eastern Europe, as the temperatures rise..., might actually experience a drop in crop yield," Carter said. "This is because crops such as wheat and barley will mature more rapidly, under a climate warming, which is detrimental to yield." In the far south and southeast of Europe, the developments because of climate change are projected to be almost entirely negative. The report estimates that hotter summers will be more frequent, resulting in increased air pollution in cities. Water will be scarcer as rainfall decreases, while forest fires will be worse. And because of the excessive heat, seashores may lose much of their recreational appeal. Diseases could increase significantly, and agriculture could be severely affected. "Certainly the prospect of drying in the summer half of the year is likely to worsen the problems of soil impoverishment, desertification, salinization, particularly where irrigation is used," according to Carter. It's not clear from the climate models used to compile the report just how severe these impacts would be on states north of the Mediterranean rim, such as Bulgaria. They, too, can be expected to suffer more extreme heat waves and consequently extra soil dehydration and associated problems. But some models indicate rainfall in the region may increase instead of decrease. Therefore it would seem that Romania, which lies still further north, could have a more moderate mix of extra summer heat and rainfall. In any event, the editor of the British-organized report, Professor Martin Parry, says it's essential for the EU to start incorporating estimates of climate change impacts into its regional and environmental policies, including agricultural policies. The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Prague. 27-11-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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