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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 229, 00-11-28Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 229, 28 November 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN CABINET CUTS DRAFT BUDGETMeeting in emergency session on 27 November, the cabinet slashed expenditures in the draft budget for 2001, originally set at 297 billion drams ($540 million), by 17.5 percent, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Vartan Khachatrian, who was named as finance minister two weeks ago (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 November 2000), argued that the original targets, which would have resulted in the highest-ever budget deficit, are not realistic. The revisions will reduce the anticipated deficit from 92 to 50 billion drams, or 4.5 percent of GDP. LF[02] RUSSIAN FSB DIRECTOR VISITS AZERBAIJANAzerbaijan's President Heidar Aliev assured visiting Russian Federal Security Service Director Nikolai Patrushev in Baku on 27 November that "we would like to establish cooperation with Russia in all spheres, including security," Turan reported. Aliev added that Azerbaijan is ready to cooperate with Russia in resolving unspecified problems in the North Caucasus. Patrushev also met with Azerbaijan's National Security Minister Namig Abbasov, with whom he discussed efforts to combat terrorism and organized crime and signed a protocol on air transport safety. LF[03] RUSSIA DENIES INTRODUCTION OF GEORGIAN VISA REGIME WILL BE POSTPONEDIn a statement issued on 27 November, the Russian Foreign Ministry denied that the planned imposition of a visa requirement for people entering Russia from Georgia has been postponed for three months, ITAR-TASS reported. Moscow had earlier announced that the requirement would take effect on 5 December. But Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze said on 27 November in his traditional weekly radio broadcast that the two countries' foreign ministries have agreed to postpone the visa requirement until 1 March 2001, according to Caucasus Press. The cost of a Russian entry visa for Georgian citizens will be $10. Also on 27 November, a Georgian Foreign Ministry official told Caucasus Press that the EU Council on 23 November adopted a statement expressing concern at the Russian decision to exempt from the visa requirement residents of the breakaway Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The EU said that move contradicts the principle of Georgia's territorial integrity. LF[04] KAZAKHSTAN REGISTERS INCREASE IN DRUG ADDICTIONSpeaking in Almaty on 27 November, Kazakh National Security Department official Rakhat Aliev said the number of drug addicts in Kazakhstan has increased 300 percent over the past five years, Interfax reported. The number of women addicts grew by 500 percent, while that of child addicts soared by 900 percent over that period. LF[05] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY DEMANDS ACQUITTAL OF JAILED LEADERThe opposition Erkindik (Liberty) party issued a statement in Bishkek on 27 November demanding the acquittal and release of its leader, Topchubek Turgunaliev, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Turgunaliev was found guilty in September of masterminding a plot to assassinate President Askar Akaev and was sentenced to 16 years' imprisonment; a Bishkek court on 24 November cut that term to six years (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 November 2000). The statement said that the court failed to prove Turgunaliev's involvement in the alleged plot. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[06] NATO SEEKS PEACEFUL SOLUTION IN SOUTHWEST SERBIANATO officials in Kosova have "pressured Yugoslav authorities and ethnic Albanian militants to keep talking in hopes of defusing a crisis that began when rebels killed four Serbian policemen" recently in the Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac region of Serbia, AP reported on 27 November (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 November 2000). A KFOR spokesman said in Prishtina that "we are encouraged by the restraint of both sides." RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported that KFOR and Serbian troops have built up their respective forces just outside the 5 kilometer-wide demilitarized zone along the Serbian border with Kosova. In Vienna, Yugoslav Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic told his U.S. counterpart, Madeleine Albright, that Belgrade wants KFOR to seal off the zone on the Kosova side of the frontier but does not want NATO to enter the zone itself, Reuters reported. In Washington, a State Department spokesman called on Serbs and ethnic Albanians to refrain from violence. PM[07] SOUTHWEST SERBIA REMAINS TENSEIn Prishtina, officials of the ethnic Albanian Liberation Front of Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac (UCPMB) said on 27 November that they have extended their unilateral cease-fire until 1 December. A UCPMB spokesman added, however, that Serbian forces have "brought in tanks all over the place [near the demilitarized zone]. We are dealing with a very tense situation," AP reported. Serbian forces in the area include the SAJ anti-terrorist unit as well as five armored brigades, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. General Nebojsa Pavkovic, who heads the Yugoslav General Staff and commanded Serbian forces in Kosova during the 1999 conflict, said in Bujanovac that "if there isn't good will in the international community to solve the problem peacefully, Yugoslavia will decide to clean all Albanian terrorist forces out of the entire zone." "Danas" reported on 28 November that "the police and army are ready to intervene at once." PM[08] WHO OR WHAT IS BEHIND TENSIONS IN SOUTHWEST SERBIA?General Pavkovic said in Bujanovac on 27 November that the recent developments in the area were "not at all spontaneous. We think it's a well- organized provocation by the ethnic Albanian terrorist forces, which are trying to destabilize this part of our country and unite it with Kosovo," AP reported. In Prishtina, an RFE/RL correspondent noted that "political observers [there] say it is not clear whether the UCPMB is the sole instigator of the recent clashes or whether Serbian forces loyal to former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic are instigating trouble in a bid to discredit and destabilize the new leadership of Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica [in the runup to the 23 December Serbian parliamentary elections]. Although UCPMB continues to smuggle weapons across the boundary from Kosova, observers in Prishtina say it appears the insurgents are also purchasing weapons in Serbia." PM[09] SERBIAN LEADERS CALL FOR PEACEFUL SOLUTIONSerbian Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic said in Belgrade on 27 November that KFOR has "demanded that we not use the language of deadlines and ultimatums, but that of diplomacy and agreements," AP reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 November 2000). Speaking in Bujanovac later that day, Kostunica told hundreds of anxious local Serbs that "there will not be a war because we are fighting for peace... We have shown that we are for peace because we respect all international documents on Kosovo." Kostunica stressed that "you have the army and the police but this time [in contrast to 1999] you also have the world on your side. We do not have anyone, particularly not the great powers, against us right now," Reuters reported. Kostunica was accompanied by General Pavkovic and Serbian security chief Rade Markovic, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Both men have long been regarded as Milosevic loyalists. PM[10] REFUGEES CONTINUE TO FLEE SOUTHWESTERN SERBIASome 800 people passed through one crossing point between Kosova and southwestern Serbia on 27 November alone, a spokeswoman for the UNHCR said in Prishtina (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 November 2000). The next day, the UNHCR issued a statement saying that some 3,000 ethnic Albanians fled to Kosova over the previous four days, Reuters reported. Macedonian border authorities said in a statement on 27 November that some 500 ethnic Albanians fled the area into Macedonia during that same period. PM[11] YUGOSLAV LEADER HAS NO TIME FOR ALBRIGHTOn behalf of the OSCE, Austrian Foreign Minister Benita Ferrero-Waldner welcomed Belgrade back into that organization in Vienna on 27 November (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 October 2000). Yugoslav officials said that Kostunica had "scheduling problems" that prevented him from meeting with Albright, the "International Herald Tribune" reported. The two nonetheless met briefly and shook hands. Many Serbs dislike Albright because of her role in the 1999 conflict and because strong, assertive women do not fit easily into the Balkan macho political culture. Unnamed U.S. officials said that Kostunica is "being unnecessarily rude" to her in view of Washington's pledge of $100 million in aid to Belgrade, the daily added. Kostunica met with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov (see also Part I), "Vesti" reported. In addition, Kostunica attended a lunch in his honor hosted by Austrian President Thomas Klestil. Among the guests was Austrian far-right leader Joerg Haider, AP reported. PM[12] SERBIAN OPPOSITION COALITION AGREEMENT SIGNEDRepresentatives of the 18 parties in the Democratic Opposition of Serbia coalition signed an agreement in Belgrade on 28 November. They reaffirmed that they will remain united for the December elections. PM[13] MONTENEGRIN GOVERNING PARTY SEEKS INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITIONPresident Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists has said its chief goal is working for international recognition of Montenegro, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported from Podgorica on 27 November. In related news, several pro-independence leaders in Montenegro criticized Serbian Orthodox Metropolitan Amfilohije for wanting to make 26 November a national holiday. On that date in 1918, an assembly in Podgorica voted to abolish Montenegrin statehood and unite with Serbia. PM[14] CROATIAN LEADER CALLS ON KOSTUNICA TO SEND MILOSEVIC TO HAGUEPresident Stipe Mesic called on his Yugoslav counterpart to extradite Milosevic to the Hague-based war crimes tribunal once the 23 December elections are over, "Jutarnji list" reported from Zagreb on 28 November. PM[15] CROATIA OFFERING 'PEANUTS' TO MOSTAR?The Croatian government has approved a payment of less than $5,000 to the city of Mostar to help rebuild the famous Ottoman stone bridge that Herzegovinian Croat gunners destroyed in 1993. The Rijeka daily "Novi List" wrote on 28 November that the sum is "peanuts" in view of the role played by ethnic Croatian forces in the destruction of Mostar during their 1993- 1994 conflict with Muslim forces. PM[16] SLOVENIAN POLICE ARREST HUMAN TRAFFIC GANGSTERPolice arrested Josip Loncaric near Ljubljana on 27 November, "Jutarnji list" reported. The Zagreb daily described him as the "biggest dealer in human traffic in Central Europe." He holds dual Croatian and Slovenian citizenship. PM[17] ROMANIAN POLLSTER PREDICTS TUDOR VICTORY IN PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFFAlin Teodorescu, head of the Institute for Marketing and Research (IMAS), told Reuters on 27 November that he "will be very surprised" if Corneliu Vadim Tudor, leader of the extremist Greater Romania Party, does not win the runoff against Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) chairman Ion Iliescu. He said IMAS's latest polls show Tudor defeating Iliescu by 54 percent to 46 percent. The final results of the 26 November parliamentary and presidential contests are expected on 28 November, but with more than 96 percent of votes counted, no significant changes were reported to the results released one day earlier (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 November 2000). MS[18] NATIONAL PEASANT PARTY LEADERSHIP RESIGNS OVER ELECTION RESULTS...The entire leadership of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD), headed by chairman Ion Diaconescu and first deputy chairman Ioan Muresan, resigned on 27 November, assuming responsibility for the party's failure to gain parliamentary representation. The PNTCD ran as the main formation of the Democratic Convention of Romania 2000 alliance. A provisional PNTCD team is to be elected over the coming weekend to act as caretaker until a PNTCD congress scheduled for January 2001 elects a new leadership, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[19] ...AS OTHER PARTIES CONSIDER THEIR OPTIONSPDSR spokesman Ioan Mircea Pascu on 27 November said his party might opt to form a minority government that would rule with the support of other parties, "depending on the issue at stake." Pascu explained that forming a coalition with the National Liberal Party (PNL) may be good for the country's "image abroad" but bad for the government's "domestic image." The Democratic Party, he said, "ruled itself out" as a coalition partner after launching an offensive against the PDSR on the eve of the elections. PRM First Deputy Chairman Cornel Ciontu said his party could "form a powerful team" with the PDSR but would not be ready to do so "at any price." PNL First Deputy Chairman Valeriu Stoica and Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania leader Bela Marko said they believe their parties will be in opposition. MS[20] ROMANIAN ELECTORAL OUTCOME TO IMPACT ON MOLDOVAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS?Moldovan deputy Ilie Ilascu, who has been imprisoned since 1992 in Tiraspol, has been elected a senator on the lists of the PRM but cannot take up his seat before he renounces his seat in the Moldovan legislature, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. Valeriu Matei, leader of the Party of Democratic Forces (PFD), on whose lists Ilascu was elected a Moldovan deputy in 1998, said the PFD "will do nothing" to influence Ilascu, who must himself decide whether he resigns from the parliament in Chisinau. Mediafax said that if Ilascu resigns from the Moldovan legislature, he will be succeeded by the next PFD candidate. This might facilitate the election of Pavel Barbalat as Petru Lucinschi's successor on 1 December. Presidential spokesman Anatol Golea said Lucinschi is "concerned" about the success of "extremists" in the Romanian elections, which might "negatively impact the process of European integration and bilateral relations." MS[21] BULGARIAN PATRIARCH REFUSES TO INVITE PONTIFFBulgarian Orthodox Patriarch Maxim is refusing "on canonical grounds" to extend an invitation to Pope John Paul II to visit Bulgaria, AP reported on 27 November, quoting Metropolitan Gelasy, the head of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church's Holy Synod. Gelasy participated in a meeting between Patriarch Maxim and Vatican envoy Cardinal Edward Cassidy on 25 November. The cabinet headed by Ivan Kostov has repeatedly invited the pope to Bulgaria, but the pontiff said he will accept the invitation only if Maxim invites him as well. The government believes that a papal visit could amount to recognition that Bulgaria was not involved in the 1981 attempt on John Paul II's life. Two Bulgarian citizens were acquitted of complicity in that attempt owing to "lack of evidence." MS[22] BELGIUM SEEKS TO CUT NUMBER OF BULGARIAN ASYLUM SEEKERSVisiting Belgian Interior Minister Antoine Duquesne told journalists on 27 November that his country is "very concerned" about the high number of asylum-seekers from Bulgaria and is considering steps to curb illegal immigration. The declaration comes when Bulgaria is seeking to have the EU abolish visa requirements for its citizens, Reuters reported. Duquesne said Bulgarians are not eligible for asylum because their country is a democratic state. Some 1,700 Bulgarians are currently applying for asylum in that country. MS[C] END NOTE[23] FAR EAST CRISIS SHOWS LIMITS OF PUTIN'S CENTRALIZATION REFORMSBy Sophie LambroschiniThe energy reductions and salary arrears now crippling parts of Primore Krai in Russia's Far East have left tens of thousands cold, hungry, and angry. While the federal government is looking to offload responsibility for the crisis, local authorities claim the situation has been blown out of proportion by Moscow in order to discredit them. Energy crises in Primore have become chronic over the past several years. This time, however, the energy shortage also poses a direct challenge to the Kremlin, which has insisted that centralization of power is the only way to fight local mismanagement and lawlessness. Primore is governed by Yevgenii Nazdratenko, who is notorious for his misrule. At first glance, the region seems a prime candidate for Kremlin intervention to exercise direct authority. But many Russian analysts say that in the case of Nazdratenko, the president has few effective weapons to use in enforcing his promised reforms. Those analysts agree that a combination of recent factors--such as insufficient fuel reserves and energy cuts due to accumulated regional debts and broken-down equipment--have contributed to the energy cuts in Primore. But they also point to more fundamental reasons, such as embezzlement, insufficient regional revenues not compensated by federal subsidies, shady energy deals, and severe rises in fuel prices. At the same time, many analysts hold Nazdratenko, who has been accused of mismanagement and election-tampering, largely responsible for the region's chaos. Nonetheless, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin has announced that Moscow will provide the region with additional financing. Petr Kozma, editor of the East West Institute's weekly regional news bulletin, says the Primore crisis makes clear that the Kremlin's new centralization policy provides no defense against autocratic regional governors such as Nazdratenko. "Actually, the situation there is in a deadlock. I don't know how the central leadership can solve it. Strong tactics won't work," Kozma said. Over the past few months, Putin has promised to put an end to regional fiefdoms such as Primore, where courts, businesses, and the police are all directly subordinated to the governor. Earlier this year, the Kremlin pushed through the State Duma legislation intended to put governors under Moscow's control. Seven presidential representatives, whose powers are substantial and may yet be extended, are out searching for violations in the regions. But in Nazdratenko's case, the Kremlin did not go much further than a reprimand. The presidential representative for the Far East district, Konstantin Pulikovskii, criticized Nazdratenko for allowing the crises over energy shortages and teachers' wages to occur. Pulikovskii also ordered law- enforcement agencies to determine where the money for the salaries has gone and why people in the region have insufficient heat. According to Kozma, the Kremlin could push to get a relatively docile Federation Council--the parliament's upper house, made up of regional leaders--to lift Nazdratenko's parliamentary immunity. But, Kozma adds, Primore represents a no-win situation for the Kremlin because Nazdratenko has simply become too powerful. For now, he says, there is no one who could realistically replace a man who has total control of the region, "If the local power is replaced [in the krai], there will be a situation where the economic infrastructure cannot be controlled because it was set up under the authority of only one person-- Nazdratenko. If someone else comes in, he will be sabotaged, and everything will fall to pieces," Kozma argues. Moscow is better off taking a pragmatic approach and seeking to negotiate a compromise with Nazdratenko, according to Kozma. Primore State Duma deputy Viktor Cherepkov, a former mayor of Vladivostok and a long-time Nazdratenko opponent, goes even further. He says that the crisis in Primore reveals Moscow's weakness. The recently passed centralization reform legislation, he points out, includes a law that allows Putin to suspend a governor if a criminal investigation is opened against that regional leader. He says that many governors criticized the law as a potential instrument of blackmail. But in Cherepkov's view, it is in fact useless for the time being since it can be implemented only when a governor leaves his seat in the Federation Council, which could be as late as 2002. Cherepkov also warns that other local bosses may learn from Nazdratenko's example. "This lack of determination [in Moscow] creates two difficulties for the president," he says. "[First,] it discredits him. And, second, it can create in other regions the same malign phenomena as exist today in Primore." For that reason, Cherepkov urges even more radical centralization. But Carnegie regional analyst Aleksei Titkov points out that the on-going energy crisis in Primore, already in its fourth year, has as much to do with rusting pipes and rises in energy price as with regional mismanagement. Titkov says the Primore crisis shows the limits of present federal policies in a country where local rulers have had years to establish their power. It also proves, he says, that relations between Moscow, the regions, and powerful energy producers are extremely complex and cannot be solved by a few new laws on centralization. The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Moscow. 28-11-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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