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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 227, 00-11-22Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 227, 22 November 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SAYS GREECE ARMENIA'S 'NATURAL ALLY'On his arrival for a two-day state visit to Greece, Armenian President Robert Kocharian said on Greek Television that Greece is "Armenia's natural ally in the region," ITAR-TASS reported on 21 November. In other comments, Kocharian said that Yerevan is "interested in having a peaceful relationship with Turkey" but that the initiative for improving ties must come from Ankara. PG[02] ARMENIA'S TRADE WITH IRAN JUMPS 10 PERCENTAram Vardanian, the president of the Union of Manufactures and Businessmen of Armenia, told Noyan Tapan on 21 November that trade between Armenia and Iran will total $110 million in 2000, up 10 percent from last year. PG[03] ARMENIA'S KURDS RALLY FOR OCALANIn advance of a 25 November hearing at the European Court of Human Rights, the Kurds of Armenia staged a rally in Yerevan in support of Kurdistan Workers' Party leader Abdullah Ocalan, the Snark news agency reported on 21 November. Speakers condemned what they called "the unfair and criminal decision of the Turkish court" in Ocalan's case and expressed the hope that the European Court will annul that decision. PG[04] ARMENIAN GROUP TO PROTECT ARMENIANS OF GEORGIAThe action group of the Armenian Resistance has released a statement saying that it will "struggle to ensure the safety" of ethnic Armenians living in Georgia's Javakheti region, Noyan Tapan and Caucasus Press reported on 21 November. The Resistance, which includes public figures in Armenia and in the Armenian diaspora, did not say what it will do in order to achieve that goal. PG[05] PROTESTS CONTINUE IN AZERBAIJAN, AS REVOLUTION SAID IMMINENTProtests continued on 21 November on a variety of fronts. Some Azerbaijanis chose the French embassy to protest Paris's decision to recognize the 1915 events as genocide, Turan reported. A rally in Baku's Mashtaga settlement called for new elections. And a demonstration took place in Baku's Sabunchi region to protest energy shortages. Meanwhile, "Bilik Dunyasi" released a poll showing that 59 percent of the population supports calls for new elections. Against the background of those reports, opposition leaders predicted that things will only get worse. National Independence Party leader Etibar Mamedov said the population is increasingly unhappy, Interfax reported on 21 November. Musavat leader Isa Gamar told Turan that efforts by authorities to rein in the population will only prompt the opposition to take more radical steps. And Democratic Party of Azerbaijan chief Sardar Jalaloglu told "525 gazet" that "the counterrevolution of the authorities is causing this revolution." PG[06] AZERBAIJANI COURT REJECTS OPPOSITION SUITThe Azerbaijani Court of Appeal rejected on 20 November a suit by the National Independence Party to cancel the results of the elections, Turan reported the next day. Lawyers for the party said they will appeal. Meanwhile, the Musavat party has filed a similar suit, the Azerbaijani news agency reported. PG[07] AZERBAIJANI AUTHORITIES SAID MOVING TO CONTAIN UNRESTThe Baku newspaper "Sharg" on 21 November said that officials at the office of President Heidar Aliev have directed its departments to curb the activities of political parties. The same day, the "Bilik Dunyasi" news agency reported that the authorities threatened to use assault rifles at a rally in Nardaran, on the outskirts of Baku. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's ANS TV station reported that an opposition leader has been beaten and that masked men detained people in Sheki, the site of a major anti-government demonstration on 18 November. PG[08] ILHAM ALIEV DENIES PLANS FOR AZERBAIJANI 'HEREDITARY MONARCHY'Ilham Aliev, the son of President Aliev and one of the leaders of the Yeni Azerbaijan Party, told "Moscow News" on 21 November that any talk of "a hereditary monarchy" in Azerbaijan is "stupidity." He denied reports that he will become parliamentary speaker and thus be first in line to succeed his father. "The rumors about my future destiny are incorrect and do not reflect my personal wishes," he said. In response to a question about Azerbaijani-Russian relations, Ilham Aliev said that the two countries have every reason "to treat each other as old friends and economic partners." He predicted success in this area "if we do away with artificially created barriers and forget the period of 'senior and junior brothers.'" PG[09] GEORGIAN OFFICIAL SAYS MOSCOW'S VISA POLICY IS ATTEMPTED ANNEXATIONRevaz Adamia, the leader of the Citizen's Union faction, told NATO's Parliamentary Assembly that Russia's decision to treat Abkhazia and South Ossetia differently from the rest of Georgia with regard to visa requirements represents an effort by Moscow to annex those territories, Kavkasia-Press reported on 21 November. Other countries at the meeting, except for Russia, supported the Georgian position, the press service said. Meanwhile, a senior Georgian security official told Interfax that Russian suggestions that Chechen commanders are hiding in Georgia are baseless and intended only to justify a new visa regime between the two countries. PG[10] SHEVARDNADZE TO ATTEND CIS SUMMITPresident Eduard Shevardnadze will attend the 1 December Minsk CIS summit, despite disagreements between Tbilisi and Moscow over Russian intentions to introduce a visa regime between the two countries, CIS Executive Secretary Yurii Yarov said in Tbilisi, Georgian Television reported on 21 November. Yarov expressed the hope that the two sides can reach agreement and said that there is no need for Georgia to consider leaving the CIS even if the visa regime is put in place. Meanwhile, the two governments appear to have agreed that talks on the future of Russian military bases in Georgia will be postponed from 11-12 December to 21-23 December, Interfax reported. PG[11] GEORGIAN PRISONERS BEAT MAN WITH MINISTER'S NAMEPrisoners in the Sagarejo penal colony beat up a cellmate with the same name as new Justice Minister Mikhail Saakashvili, who has introduced a new tougher regime at that facility, Caucasus Press reported on 21 November. PG[12] KAZAKH SECURITY CHIEF SAYS MORE VIOLENCE LIKELY IN CENTRAL ASIAKazakhstan Security Council Secretary Marat Tazhin told Interfax on 21 November that both extremist groups and drug traffickers are likely to provoke more violence in Central Asia in 2001. He added that the armed forces in this region will likely have to respond as they did earlier this year. PG[13] KAZAKH BORDER GUARD CADETS EXPELLED FOR MUTINYKazakhstan's commercial television reported on 20 November that more than 10 cadets have been expelled from the Military Institute of the country's National Security Committee for taking part in a September protest after their commanders reduced their stipends for toothpaste and soap. An additional, unspecified number of the 200 future border guards received lesser punishments, the television service said. PG[14] KAZAKHSTAN SUFFERS WATER SHORTAGEPrime Minister Ksymzhomart Tokaev said on 21 November that Kazakhstan is suffering from "a constant deficit of water" as a result of natural causes, Interfax reported. But he said that the problem cab be addressed jointly only through talks with neighboring countries. PG[15] KAZAKHSTAN SUSPENDS OPPOSITION NEWSPAPERRamazan Esergepov, the editor of "Nachnem s Ponedelnika," told RFE/RL's Kazakh Service on 21 November that a court has suspended the operation of his newspaper for three months. He said that the court said it was forced to take this action because Esergepov has changed his address so often, but Esergepov responded that he had to do so to avoid official harassment. PG[16] KYRGYZSTAN TO INCREASE DEFENSE BUDGETThe draft state budget approved in the first reading on 20 November calls for increasing the country's defense budget by 2.5 times to a total of 860 million soms ($18 million), Interfax reported on 21 November. Actual defense spending in 1999, however, was 900 million soms because of expenses incurred during fighting in the country's southern regions. PG[17] RATS ATTACK KYRGYZ CHILDRENRats have attacked sleeping children in a northeastern Kyrgyzstan town, Kyrgyz-Press International News Agency reported on 20 November. The service said that in Kyrgyzstan no one pays any attention to rats or seeks to exterminate them. PG[18] RUSSIAN GUARDS ON ALERT ON TAJIK-AFGHAN BORDERResponding to increased military activity by the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, Colonel General Nikolai Reznichenko, the chief of staff of the Russian border guards, and Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov agreed to put the border troops on high alert to prevent any spillover of the violence into Tajikistan, AP reported. Meanwhile, Ekho Moskvy reported that Tajik officials have arrested another 14 members of the banned Liberation party. PG[19] U.S. TO SEND GRAIN TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN TAJIKISTANThe U.S. Agency for International Development will send some 13 million tons of grain to drought-stricken regions in Tajikistan, ITAR-TASS reported on 21 November. This assistance is the U.S. portion of a drought assistance package developed by the UN World Food Program. PG[20] TURKMENISTAN WANTS OEC TO ASSIST PETROLEUM EXPORTSTurkmen President Sapurmurat Niyazov has asked the Organization for Economic Cooperation to help develop projects allowing countries that, like his own, have a surplus of oil and gas to export to countries that need those resources, Interfax-Central Asia reported on 21 November. His request came during a meeting with visiting OEC Secretary-General Abdulrakhim Gavkhi. PG[21] UZBEKISTAN TO REORGANIZE MINISTRIESUzbek officials told Interfax-Central Asia on 21 November that Tashkent plans to reorganize the agriculture and water ministries in the near future and will then reorganize other ministries, including social services. PG[22] UZBEK OPPOSITION FIGURE DENOUNCES VERDICTMuhammad Solih, the exiled chairman of the Erk Democratic Party, told the Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran radio from Mashhad on 20 November that the court's verdict against him and other democratic activists is completely illegal. He was among those tried in absentia for their alleged role in the February 2000 bomb blasts in Tashkent. PG[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[23] DEL PONTE WANTS YUGOSLAV LEADER TO MAKE MILOSEVIC EXTRADITION HIS PRIORITYCarla Del Ponte, who is the chief prosecutor of the Hague-based war crimes tribunal, told the UN Security Council on 21 November that "it would be inconceivable to allow [former Yugoslav President Slobodan] Milosevic to walk away from the consequences of his actions. Milosevic must be brought to trial before the international tribunal. There simply is no alternative, " AP reported. Del Ponte added that "the world has embraced President [Vojislav] Kostunica despite the fact that he has repeatedly said that cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia 'is not a priority' for him. Whatever President Kostunica may say, the surrender of Milosevic is a priority. It is a priority for him; it is a priority for me; and it should, in my submission, also be a priority for the Security Council of the United Nations." PM[24] CROATIAN PRESIDENT CALLS ON SERBS TO ADMIT WAR GUILT...In Zagreb, Croatian President Stipe Mesic said that he will pay an official visit to Belgrade only if Milosevic first goes to The Hague, "Jutarnji list" reported on 22 November. He told AP that Kostunica should apologize for Milosevic's aggressive policies and bring those responsible for war crimes to justice. Mesic stressed that the new Belgrade leaders will be judged by deeds and not just words. He repeated his earlier call for Serbia to "go through a catharsis. It must give up Milosevic's imperialistic policy, which claimed that all Serbs must live in one state [and that] therefore they're allowed to seize other people's territories." PM[25] ...WARNS SUMMIT PROTESTERSMesic said in Zagreb on 21 November that most Croats want the upcoming EU summit in the Croatian capital to be a success, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 November 2000). He added, however, that some unnamed individuals are interested in disrupting the event in order to undermine the stability and reputation of their country. Elsewhere, the Interior Ministry banned demonstrations during the conference. For its part, the Croatian Helsinki Committee (HHO) said in a statement that it believes that anyone who wants to demonstrate should have the right to do so, even though the HHO does not agree with their aims. Most of the calls for demonstrations have come from veterans' and other organizations close to the former government of the late President Franjo Tudjman. PM[26] DJUKANOVIC SEES FEW TIES BETWEEN MONTENEGRO, SERBIACzech President Vaclav Havel told visiting Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic in Prague on 21 November that he hopes Yugoslavia will soon simultaneously resolve the issues "of all three entities: Serbia, Montenegro, and Kosovo," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Djukanovic replied that he envisions that Serbia and Montenegro will become independent states. He added that they will have an open border without visa or passport requirements for their respective citizens. Djukanovic told the Podgorica daily "Vijesti" of 22 November that Montenegro has achieved much in the past three to four years and has no intention of giving up any of its newly-won sovereignty. He added that he sees no reason why Serbia and Montenegro cannot easily redefine their mutual relations as two internationally recognized states with an open border and the free movement of "people, goods, and capital." PM[27] BOMB RIPS HOME OF BELGRADE'S ENVOY IN KOSOVAA bomb explosion severely damaged the home of Stanimir Vukicevic in Prishtina in the early hours of 22 November. Vukicevic, who represents the Belgrade authorities in Kosova, was not hurt. The explosion nonetheless killed his driver and injured a security guard, AP reported. Bernard Kouchner, who heads the UN's civilian administration in Kosova, said that the attack was "well prepared and very carefully executed." He added that unnamed "extremists are now ready to step up their targeting of the Serbian community" but did not elaborate. Meanwhile in the Presevo valley area of Serbia bordering Kosova, three Serbian police are missing following a clash with "Albanian extremists," the Beta news agency reported. PM[28] BELGRADE TO AMNESTY KOSOVAR PRISONERS?Yugoslav Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic said in Athens on 21 November that he expects the 800 Kosovars being held in Serbian prisons to be released soon as part of a general amnesty, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[29] SERBIAN PROSECUTOR INVESTIGATES STAMBOLIC CASEThe Serbian state prosecutor's office has launched an investigation into the disappearance in August of former Serbian leader Ivan Stambolic, "Politika" reported on 22 November (see RFE/RL Newsline," 20 October 2000). The prosecutor's office is also investigating the killing of independent journalist Slavko Curuvija in 1999 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 April 2000). Both crimes are widely believed to be the work of forces close to Milosevic. PM[30] U.S. FLAG RAISED OVER EMBASSY IN YUGOSLAVIAThe building of the U.S. embassy in Belgrade has been cleaned of the anti- American graffiti that appeared during the 1999 Kosova conflict and the U.S. flag has been hoisted over the building, "Danas" reported on 22 November. The Yugoslav authorities recently decided to restore ties to Washington, Berlin, Paris, and London, which were broken during the Kosova conflict (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 November 2000). PM[31] MILOSEVIC WROTE SERBIAN PARTY PROGRAMThe principal document that will be adopted at the upcoming congress of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) is the work of Milosevic himself, "Danas" reported on 22 November (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 November 2000). The SPS will not consider an alternative proposal drafted by nationalist political philosopher Mihajlo Markovic (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 November 2000). Milosevic will be the sole candidate for party president at the congress, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[32] MACEDONIA, BOSNIA TO CLAIM EQUAL PARTS OF YUGOSLAV ASSETSBosnian and Macedonian officials discussed their respective plans in Skopje for the upcoming talks in Brussels aimed at dividing the assets and properties of the former Yugoslavia, "Danas" reported on 22 November. Officials of the two relatively poor republics agreed that they will each seek to claim one-fifth of the former state's assets and properties and to coordinate their strategies in doing so. Relatively wealthy Slovenia and Croatia are likely to argue that each successor state should receive assets and properties proportional to what it paid into the former joint Yugoslav budget. Sir Arthur Watts, who is the international community's representative for questions involving succession rights to the former Yugoslavia, has called for a meeting in the Belgian capital in December. PM[33] TURKISH BUSINESSES LEAVE BOSNIA FOR SERBIATurkish Ambassador to Bosnia Ahmet Erozan told "Dnevni avaz" of 22 November that 15 Turkish companies plan to transfer their offices from Sarajevo to Belgrade. The ambassador added that he has told Turkish businessmen that they must be guided by economic considerations and not by any "sentimentality toward Bosnia" stemming from historical and cultural ties between the two countries. He added that Turkey pursues its business interests independently of political or emotional considerations, noting that Ankara's most important trade partner in the Balkans is Athens. Meanwhile in Split, "Slobodna Dalmacija" reported that Athens and Rome are interested in obtaining EU membership for Belgrade at the earliest possible opportunity. Both Greece and Italy have considerable business interests in Serbia and supported the 1999 NATO intervention against Belgrade only reluctantly. PM[34] OSCE ISSUES FINAL PRELIMINARY BOSNIAN VOTE COUNTOSCE officials released figures in Sarajevo on 21 November for the recent Bosnian elections (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 November 2000). In the vote for the joint Bosnian parliament, the non-nationalist but largely Muslim Social Democrats won 27.3 percent of the votes, followed by Muslim leader Alija Izetbegovic's Party of Democratic Action (SDA) with 27.1 percent. The Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) took 19.3 percent, while the mainly Muslim Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina of Haris Silajdzic won 15.6 percent. Among the Serbs, Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party led with 39.5 percent, followed by the Party of Democratic Progress of Mladen Ivanic with 15.3 percent. The coalition of Independent Social Democrats of Milorad Dodik won 10.7 percent. In the race for the legislature in the mainly Muslim and Croatian federation, the SDA took 26.8 percent followed by the Social Democrats with 26.1 percent. The HDZ has 17.5 percent, while Silajdzic took 14.9 percent. PM[35] SECOND ROUND NECESSARY FOR BOSNIAN SERB PRESIDENTIAL VOTE?Mirko Sarovic, who is the SDS candidate for the presidency of the Republika Srpska, missed winning that office outright in the first round of voting by only some 600 votes, "Vesti" reported on 22 November. Sarovic won 49.8 percent of the vote, which is just short of the 50 percent required for an outright first-round victory. Counters will now tally second-preference votes, which could still give him the victory without having to enter a second round. In the count of first-preference votes, Dodik came in second with 25.8 percent. Ivanic took third place with 8.6 percent. The second- preference votes must be tallied by 1 December. PM[36] WAS ILIESCU A SECURITATE COLLABORATOR?The National Committee for the Study of the Securitate Archives on 21 November rejected the Democratic Convention of Romania 2000's (CDR 2000) appeal against an earlier ruling that Party of Social Democracy in Romania chairman Ion Iliescu did not collaborate with the communist secret police. CDR 2000 launched the appeal on the grounds that as a former Communist Party first secretary in Iasi County, Iliescu was in charge of coordinating the activities of the Securitate in that region. Committee chairman Gheorghe Onisoru said nobody can be suspected of collaboration with the Securitate without "proper documentation" proving such was the case. Onisoru added that an inquiry into the activities of the Securitate in Iasi County between 1974 and 1979, when Iliescu was first secretary there, would require "a huge effort," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[37] ROMANIAN EXTREMIST LEADER VIEWS HIMSELF AS LOCAL 'GEORGE W'Greater Romanian Party leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor said on 21 November that in his campaign for the presidency, his message to the country is the same as that of U.S. Republican Party presidential candidate George W. Bush, namely "law and order." "Like myself, Bush is a practicing Christian and a fighter against gangland-style crime, which has smothered the U.S., as it has swept over Romania," he said, Tudor, who is expected to face Iliescu in a runoff, told Reuters, that Bush "jokes about bringing the electric chair into the White House... My message is [also] that of a nationalist and a that of a guardian of justice." MS[38] ROMANIA CLOSES ONLY ONE CHAPTER IN EU TALKSOnly one chapter out of the four opened has been closed in Romania's accession talks with the EU, Mediafax reported on 21 November, citing chief- negotiator Aurel Ciobanu-Dordea. The closed chapter is the one on statistical data. Romania lags behind all other aspiring candidates, all of which have closed more chapters out of the 29 included in the aquis communautaire. MS[39] BULGARIAN PREMIER DISAPPOINTED WITH EU OVER VISA REQUIREMENTSAfter talks in Brussels on 21 November, Prime Minister Ivan Kostov expressed disappointment about the EU delay on lifting visa requirements for Bulgarian citizens, AP reported. "I have to admit that the government's goal of having the requirement lifted by 30 November will not be achieved," Kostov said, adding that "it remains to be seen if in future Bulgaria will be able to devote as much effort as in the past to regional initiatives and European integration." EU Commission President Romano Prodi said he hopes the visa problem can be solved "within the next six months" but this will require "a strong effort" from Bulgaria. French European Affairs Minister Pierre Moscovici, who met with his Bulgarian counterpart, Nadezhda Mihailova, said it is necessary to "avoid getting hysterical" over the issue. "We have a real problem, and we want to solve it quickly," Moscovici said. MS[C] END NOTE[40] THE SCHENGEN LIST IMPACTS ON BULGARIA'S ELECTIONSBy Margarita AssenovaAlthough the date for Bulgaria's parliamentary elections, due by the summer of 2001, has not yet been set, the major political parties have already launched their election campaigns. The ruling democratic coalition has initiated a campaign demanding that the EU lift visa restrictions for Bulgarian citizens, while the Socialist Party rallied its supporters in Sofia to protest against the government's domestic policies. These two events have demarcated the battle lines along which the two election campaigns will be fought. The Democrats will emphasize the pro-European policies they have been pursuing for several years and underscore Bulgaria's progress toward Euro- Atlantic integration. They will attempt to convince voters, who are frustrated with low living standards, that joining a democratic and prosperous Europe is worth the high price Bulgarian citizens are paying under the current economic reforms. The Socialists are planning to exploit voter's dissatisfaction with the negative impact of the reforms and thereby build a campaign around the slogan "Enough is enough!" Bulgaria's democratic government urgently needs to prove to voters that the country has received some EU recognition for its achievements since 1997. The start of accession negotiations with the EU at the beginning of this year raised hopes for the struggling Bulgarian people, but prospects for a brighter future seem to be receding. Although Bulgaria and Romania are candidate countries for the EU, they remain on the Schengen blacklist. The EU Justice and Home Commission is expected to make a decision on the issue on 30 November, but some European leaders are pessimistic about the chances of abolishing visa regime. In response, the Bulgarian government has started an intensive campaign involving all state institutions. The national parliament adopted a declaration on 10 November demanding that the EU ends its visa regime. Prime Minister Ivan Kostov declared that "Bulgaria must defend its national interest by preparing for an active and strong foreign-policy response in case visa restrictions are not lifted." Earlier the parliamentary foreign- policy commission chairman Asen Agov suggested that Bulgaria leave the Southeast European Stability Pact if visa restrictions are not waived. Such developments suggest that Bulgaria's ruling coalition is becoming desperate several months before the scheduled parliamentary elections. Popular support for the ruling United Democratic Forces (UDF) has dropped to 24.7 percent, only four percentage points higher than support for the Socialist Party, which had steered Bulgaria toward an economic catastrophe in 1997. Although the UDF has achieved more than any previous leadership in Sofia, Bulgarian citizens are disappointed by the slow pace of reforms, low incomes, rising unemployment, and corruption scandals. In this atmosphere, voters are unlikely to consider that the country enjoys financial stability, low inflation, GDP growth of some 5 percent this year, and a 70 percent rate of enterprise privatization. Rather, they are more likely to remember that there is some 17 percent unemployment, the average monthly salary remains as low as $110, poverty affects mostly women and minorities, and 60 percent of single mothers suffer from malnutrition because they are giving most of their food purchases to their children, according to the "Twenty First Century" Foundation. The recently released annual report of the EU commission points out that Bulgaria still lacks a functioning market economy, which would help curb poverty and stimulate the development of viable small and medium-sized enterprises. It also underscores that corruption remains a widespread An opinion poll conducted recently among magistrates, tax inspectors, municipal councilors, and customs officers from the Veliko Turnovo region found that every fourth person admitted to taking a bribe during the previous 12 months. More than 80 percent of the 195 staffers surveyed by the regional EU Information Center accept bribe-taking as normal. The main goal of the UDF before the upcoming elections is the restoration of public trust, but this is obviously a difficult task, especially during the winter period. The Socialist Party will use the UDF's weaknesses to its advantage. At a recent rally in Sofia, Socialist leader Georgi Parvanov said the ruling UDF has brought only "poverty, unemployment, and corruption and managed to secure well-being only for a tiny circle of people close to the UDF elite." When two bomb explosions killed three people in Sofia last week, the Socialist Party blamed the government of being incapable of cracking down on organized crime. Such a strategy may prove successful, given the dire economic situation of large sectors of the population. Although it is unlikely to bring the Socialists back to power, it could prevent the UDF from gaining a majority in the new parliament. This, in turn, could lead to a weak, broad-based coalition government and further endanger economic reforms. The World Bank has said that fighting poverty and corruption are among the most important issues in Bulgaria, but its new program targeting these problems will start only after the elections. The ruling coalition is desperately counting on Europe's giving moral support by lifting the visa restrictions. Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to Sofia Richard Miles, for his part, has announced that Washington will loosen its visa regime with Bulgaria. The author is a consultant with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. (assenova@mindspring.com) 22-11-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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