RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 22, 00-02-01

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 22, 1 February 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIA, RUSSIA TO ATTEND GUUAM DEFENSE MINISTERS' MEETING?

[02] ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS DISCUSS MUTUAL

[03] ENERGY CRISIS FORCES AZERBAIJAN TO IMPORT CRUDE

[04] UN EXTENDS MANDATE OF OBSERVERS IN ABKHAZIA...

[05] ...AS GEORGIA SEEKS TO AVOID NEW HOSTILITIES

[06] PROTESTING PENSIONERS FINED IN KAZAKHSTAN

[07] TAJIKISTAN DENIES SIGNING COOPERATION AGREEMENT WITH TALEBAN

[08] EU DEPLORES EXECUTIONS IN UZBEKISTAN

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] CROATIAN PARTIES AGREE ON COMMITTEE ASSIGNMENTS

[10] GERMANY TO PROMOTE TIES TO CROATIA

[11] MESIC CALLS FOR INVESTIGATION OF CAMPAIGN FUNDING

[12] CROATIAN EX-MINISTER IN PRE-TRIAL DETENTION

[13] U.S. WARNS MILOSEVIC ON MONTENEGRO

[14] MONTENEGRINS STILL SPLIT ON INDEPENDENCE

[15] SERBIAN POLICE TRY TO PREVENT NEWSPAPER FROM PUBLISHING

[16] STRIKES IN SERBIA

[17] NOVI SAD DEFIES MILOSEVIC

[18] MORE EU FUEL ARRIVES IN SERBIA

[19] SERBIA'S ALBANIANS WANT INTERNATIONAL MONITORS

[20] KOSOVAR SHADOW-STATE PARLIAMENT MISSES DEADLINE TO DISSOLVE

[21] EX-GUERRILLAS QUIT KOSOVA PROTECTION CORPS

[22] ROMANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN FRANCE

[23] ROMANIAN LIBERALS DEMAND EQUALITY WITHIN ALLIANCE

[24] MOLDOVAN PARTY CALLS FOR UNION WITH ROMANIA

[25] EU SAYS MOLDOVA IS NOT CANDIDATE FOR MEMBERSHIP

[26] BULGARIA TRIES TO SWAP FOREIGN DEBT

[C] END NOTE

[27] TRIAL BALLOON IN YEREVAN

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIA, RUSSIA TO ATTEND GUUAM DEFENSE MINISTERS' MEETING?

been invited to attend the meeting of defense ministers of

GUUAM member states, which has now been rescheduled for

March, Armenpress reported on 28 January (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 24 January 2000). ITAR-TASS on 30 January quoted

Deputy Georgian Defense Minister Aleko Mchedlishvili as

saying that the defense ministers of the five GUUAM member

states (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and

Moldova) will discuss at that meeting in Tbilisi broader

cooperation, including the protection of oil export

pipelines. LF

[02] ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS DISCUSS MUTUAL

During their talks in Davos on the sidelines

of the World Economic Forum, Robert Kocharian and Heidar

Aliev discussed the possibility of unspecified "reciprocal

concessions" aimed at "normalizing" bilateral relations,

Aliev told journalists on his return to Baku on 30 January.

ITAR-TASS quoted the Azerbaijani president as describing his

talks with Kocharian as "positive." LF

[03] ENERGY CRISIS FORCES AZERBAIJAN TO IMPORT CRUDE

who is president of Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR,

told journalists in Baku that Azerbaijan may have to import

crude oil to refine into fuel oil for use in oil-fired power

stations, Interfax reported on 31 January. He added that it

is not possible to purchase fuel oil abroad because of a

shortage on world markets. Turkmenistan, which had been

viewed as a possible source of fuel oil, has halted

production in favor of exporting crude oil. Azerbaijan last

week introduced formal electricity rationing in response to

the energy sector's inability to generate sufficient power

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 and 28 January 2000). LF

[04] UN EXTENDS MANDATE OF OBSERVERS IN ABKHAZIA...

Security Council on 31 January extended for another six

months (until 31 July) the mandate of the UN Observer Force

in western Georgia, Reuters and Caucasus Press reported. The

Security Council resolution noted that the situation in the

south of Georgia's breakaway Republic of Abkhazia remains

"rather unstable," and it termed "inadmissible" the lack of

progress toward a political settlement of the deadlocked

conflict between Abkhazia and the central Georgian

government. The resolution also called on both sides to

demonstrate their renewed commitment to the peace process.

Speaking in Moscow on 29 January, UN Secretary-General Kofi

Annan expressed regret that greater progress toward

reconciliation has been made in Tajikistan than in Abkhazia.

LF

[05] ...AS GEORGIA SEEKS TO AVOID NEW HOSTILITIES

Minister of State Vazha Lortkipanidze told journalists that

he is ready to travel to Sukhumi for talks with the Abkhaz

authorities in an attempt to prevent a further escalation of

tensions on the border between Abkhazia and the rest of

Georgia, Caucasus Press reported on 1 February. Last week

three Abkhaz were shot dead in a clash at the border, and two

more Abkhaz men were apprehended by Georgian forces (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 26 and 27 January 2000). The Abkhaz

authorities have proposed releasing seven Georgians recently

taken hostage in the region in exchange for the two wounded

men and the bodies of their comrades. Lortkipanidze denied

rumors that Georgia is preparing a new invasion of Abkhazia.

LF

[06] PROTESTING PENSIONERS FINED IN KAZAKHSTAN

participants in demonstrations by pensioners on 30 January in

Almaty and seven other cities in Kazakhstan have received

court summonses, and two of them have been fined 4,000 tenges

(about $20) for participating in an unsanctioned public

gathering, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported on 1 February.

Two men were detained in Qaraghandy, while in Qostanay, more

than 1,500 took part in the protest. Pensioners stage such

protests regularly on the 30th day of the month to demand an

improvement in living standards. LF

[07] TAJIKISTAN DENIES SIGNING COOPERATION AGREEMENT WITH TALEBAN

official statement rejecting as untrue a report published in

"Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 29 January, Asia Plus-Blitz reported

on 1 February. That report claimed that the Tajik government

and the Taleban signed an agreement on 21 January whereby

Tajikistan would undertake to modernize Afghanistan's energy

sector. The Tajik Foreign Ministry statement made it clear

that the agreement referred to was concluded between the

Tajik state company Barqi Tojik and the charge d'affaires in

Dushanbe of the government of President Burhanuddin Rabbani.

LF

[08] EU DEPLORES EXECUTIONS IN UZBEKISTAN

issued a statement condemning the executions in Uzbekistan of

six men found guilty of participating in the terrorist

bombings in Tashkent last February, Reuters reported. The

statement called on Tashkent to introduce a moratorium on

executions as a first step toward abolishing the death

penalty. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] CROATIAN PARTIES AGREE ON COMMITTEE ASSIGNMENTS

the largest parties and coalitions represented in the

parliament agreed in Zagreb on 31 January on the division of

top committee assignments. Deputies from the main two-party

coalition will chair 10 committees and hold the deputy chair

of another 10. Legislators from the smaller four-party

coalition will chair four committees and hold the deputy

position on another three. Deputies belonging to the

opposition Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) will chair

five committees and hold the deputy chair of an additional

six. Legislators belonging to the two governing coalitions

will have a two-thirds majority on all committees, RFE/RL's

South Slavic Service reported. PM

[10] GERMANY TO PROMOTE TIES TO CROATIA

is state secretary in the German Foreign Ministry, said in

Zagreb on 31 January that Berlin wants to help Croatia carry

out democratic reforms and improve relations with the West.

He invited Prime Minister Ivica Racan to visit Germany on 16

February, AP reported. Germany played a key role in obtaining

international support for Croatia after the latter declared

independence in 1991. Relations subsequently cooled because

of the ruling HDZ's persistent refusal to democratize

according to European standards. Romano Prodi, who heads the

European Commission, recently visited Zagreb to encourage

reform. U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will make

a brief stopover in Croatia on 2 February. PM

[11] MESIC CALLS FOR INVESTIGATION OF CAMPAIGN FUNDING

Mesic, who is the four-party coalition's candidate for the

Croatian presidency in the 7 February runoff election, told

reporters in Zagreb on 31 January that he will investigate

the financing of all previous presidential elections if he

wins. He said that the investigation will include the 1992

campaign of Drazen Budisa, who is Mesic's rival in the

current race. PM

[12] CROATIAN EX-MINISTER IN PRE-TRIAL DETENTION

ruled on 31 January that former HDZ Minister of Tourism Ivan

Herak must remain in detention for one-month pending his

trial for embezzlement (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 January

2000). The judge added that Herak is not allowed any visitors

lest he attempt to "influence witnesses," RFE/RL's South

Slavic Service reported. PM

[13] U.S. WARNS MILOSEVIC ON MONTENEGRO

January, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Thomas

Pickering warned Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic not to

intervene militarily in Montenegro. Pickering said that "any

further conflict in the region should be avoided," Reuters

reported. He stressed that "we are prepared to stand firm

against any military actions of Milosevic's in the region."

In related news, U.S. officials in Washington promised

visiting Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic a

considerable aid package aimed at promoting democratic

reforms and shoring up the economy. PM

[14] MONTENEGRINS STILL SPLIT ON INDEPENDENCE

January, pro-Milosevic members of traditional clans staged a

protest "so that the entire international community can see

whom the people of Montenegro really support," RFE/RL's South

Slavic Service reported. In Belgrade, Predrag Bulatovic, who

is a leader of pro-Milosevic Montenegrins, called the

independence-oriented Montengrin Orthodox Church "a sect." A

recent poll, however, suggests that some 42 percent of

Montenegrins want independence, while 40 percent oppose it,

"Danas" noted. The number of supporters of independence has

increased in recent months. PM

[15] SERBIAN POLICE TRY TO PREVENT NEWSPAPER FROM PUBLISHING

16 police entered the Belgrade offices of the independent

daily "Glas Javnosti" on 31 January to prevent staff from

printing that day's edition, Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 31 January 2000). Undeterred, staff used a back-up

press in a different part of the building to print the

newspaper, which subsequently appeared on the streets. PM

[16] STRIKES IN SERBIA

"collapse in transportation" in the Serbian capital on 31

January, the Belgrade daily "Danas" reported. The city bus

company was unable to meet the demand of additional

passengers prompted by the non-appearance of 500 private

buses. The private drivers want government approval to

increase fares by almost 200 percent. Meanwhile in

communities throughout Serbia, the majority of teachers in

elementary and secondary schools staged a strike to demand

back wages. The Education Ministry promised to pay the money

immediately, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM

[17] NOVI SAD DEFIES MILOSEVIC

are slated to launch work on reconstructing a bridge across

the Danube on 1 February, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported. Belgrade opposes the move and denied visas to 27

foreign journalists, who wanted to cover the story (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 12 January 2000). The city council

protested the decision not to issue visas, "Vesti" reported.

PM

[18] MORE EU FUEL ARRIVES IN SERBIA

arrived in the southern city of Pirot on 30 January as part

of the EU's Energy for Democracy program. A spokesman for the

city government told AP that he expects the oil to continue

to arrive until "the heating season" ends in the spring. PM

[19] SERBIA'S ALBANIANS WANT INTERNATIONAL MONITORS

the Party for Democratic Activity (PDD), which represents

some 100,000 ethnic Albanians in areas of southern Serbia

bordering Kosova, said on 31 January in Presevo that they

want UN and OSCE monitors to come to that town and to

Bujanovac and Medvedja. The PDD charged that Serbian special

police have sought to intimidate local Albanians and have

created tensions in the region. The party wants the police to

leave the area, "Danas" reported. PM

[20] KOSOVAR SHADOW-STATE PARLIAMENT MISSES DEADLINE TO DISSOLVE

dissolve their assembly on 31 January in Prishtina, as the

UN-led civilian administration had expected. Some deputies

said that they want more time to consider a possible future

for that body and to discuss what to do with the funds

collected by the shadow-state. A UN spokeswoman said that

there is no great urgency for local leaders to work out the

details of the dissolution of their institutions. She added,

however, that the UN expects them to do so as soon as

possible. Observers note that the UN wants its administration

to be the only one in the province. PM

[21] EX-GUERRILLAS QUIT KOSOVA PROTECTION CORPS

number of former members of the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK)

in Podujeva have given up membership in the UN-sponsored

civilian Kosova Protection Corps (KPC), "Danas" reported on 1

February. The men said that the corps is not living up to

"the expectations of the UCK regarding how to defend Kosova."

Observers note that the differences reflect the contrast

between the UN view of the KPC as a civilian work force and

the UCK's hope that it will form the core of a new army. PM

[22] ROMANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN FRANCE

French counterpart, Hubert Vedrine, and European Affairs

Minister Pierre Moscovici on 31 January to discuss Romania's

quest to join the EU and secure full French backing for that

bid, an RFE/RL correspondent in Paris reported. Addressing a

student forum earlier that day, Roman said Romania needs to

make a "gigantic effort" to qualify for EU membership and,

according to the "most optimistic evaluation," will not gain

membership before 2007. At a joint press conference with

Vedrine, Roman backed the French position on the Austrian

coalition talks, saying that nationalist leader Joerg Haider

is "offering demagogic and populist solutions" that can bring

"nothing to Austria's citizens." MS

[23] ROMANIAN LIBERALS DEMAND EQUALITY WITHIN ALLIANCE

interview with the daily "Adevarul" on 31 January, National

Liberal Party (PNL) deputy chairman Puiu Hasoti said the PNL

"might change its strategy" on its alliance with the National

Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) if a new protocol

on the Democratic Convention of Romania (CDR) is not signed

very soon. Hasoti said the liberals are demanding "equality

within the alliance," which he added must have two joint

chairmen, one from each of those parties. Also on 31 January,

Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) Chairman Ion

Iliescu said the emerging Popular Party, which is headed by

former Premier Radu Vasile, might be a partner for the PDSR

since its pragmatic positions differ from the

"fundamentalism" of the PNTCD and of Victor Ciorbea's

Christian Democratic National Alliance. MS

[24] MOLDOVAN PARTY CALLS FOR UNION WITH ROMANIA

parliamentary National Liberal Party (PNL) on 30 January

launched an initiative for a Romanian-Moldovan inter-state

union modeled on the Russian-Belarus union, Flux reported the

next day. Spokesmen for the PNL said at a conference in

Chisinau of the party's local branch that there was a growing

need for the union, given that Romania will likely join the

EU. The conference voted in favor of the Chisinau branch of

the Party of Democratic Forces (PFD) joining the PNL; the

members of that chapter recently resigned from the PFD.

Parliamentary deputy Gheorghe Straisteanu, who quit the PFD,

accused that party and its leader, Valeriu Matei, of "power

abuse and involvement in dubious businesses." Straisteanu

also said that parliamentary chairman Dumitru Diacov, former

Premier Ion Sturza and Deputy Premier Nicolae Andronic have

all been involved in, or have condoned, corruption. MS

[25] EU SAYS MOLDOVA IS NOT CANDIDATE FOR MEMBERSHIP

Commission President Romano Prodi, in a letter to Vasile

Nedelciuc, chairman of the Moldovan parliament's Foreign

Affairs Commission, says it would be "premature" to consider

Moldova a candidate for membership in the EU, Romanian Radio

reported on 31 January, citing the BBC. Prodi says Moldova

has not yet "fully implemented" the partnership and

cooperation agreement signed two years ago with the union. MS

[26] BULGARIA TRIES TO SWAP FOREIGN DEBT

Radev said on 31 January that Bulgaria will try to "swap

parts of its [foreign] debt to members of the Paris Club" of

creditors, AP reported. Radev, who was speaking at a joint

press conference with members of an IMF delegation, did not

specify which countries would be involved in such a deal or

how much of the debt would be covered. Bulgaria's foreign

debt totals $ 9.5 billion, of which $ 5.8 billion are owed to

private creditors and $ 3.7 billion to governments and

international financial institutions. Sofia owes $910 million

to the Paris Club. Yuha Kahkonen, head of the IMF delegation,

praised Bulgaria's "sound economic policy" and said the

country is now "well positioned for a solid recovery in

2000." MS

[C] END NOTE

[27] TRIAL BALLOON IN YEREVAN

Speaking at a press conference in Yerevan on 19 January,

National Democratic Union (AZhM) Chairman Vazgen Manukian

proposed that President Robert Kocharian voluntarily resign

to allow new presidential elections to be held. Manukian

characterized the political situation in Armenia three months

after the murder of Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian and

parliamentary speaker Karen Demirchian as anarchy and claimed

that Kocharian is no longer in control. Allowing the current

situation to continue indefinitely, Manukian said, would only

cause further damage to the country.

Manukian's remarks represent a shift from his earlier

position. In mid-November, he had argued that new

presidential and/or parliamentary elections should be held

only after the political situation in Armenia has stabilized.

Asked why he now advocates new elections, Manukian said that

the situation "is swiftly deteriorating" and that a solution

is urgently needed.

But leaders of other parties represented in parliament

responded either ambivalently or negatively to Manukian's

proposal. The two parties that are most closely linked with

the current president--the Armenian Revolutionary Federation

(Dashnaktsutiun), which backed his successful presidential

bid in 1998 and Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law), which is

reportedly partly financed by the head of Kocharian's

National Security Council, former Interior and National

Security Minister Serzh Sarkisian--rejected the idea of

holding new elections.

Orinats Yerkir leader Artur Baghdasarian said that

"there are no legal or political grounds" for the president's

resignation, nor is there any guarantee that a new poll would

be free and fair. Both Orinats Yerkir and the ARFD made the

point that measures to improve the social and economic

situation in Armenia would contribute more to stabilization

than would new elections.

But the majority Miasnutiun parliamentary faction, which

despite both sides' repeated disclaimers is widely perceived

as mistrustful of Kocharian, did not endorse Manukian's call

for a new poll either. Miasnutiun faction head Andranik

Markarian told RFE/RL that the president's resignation should

be treated as an option only if "there are serious political

grounds." The only other political party leader to advocate a

pre-term presidential poll is the new Communist Party First

Secretary Vladimir Darbinian, who told journalists in mid-

January that such a vote would contribute to stability.

There are, however, credible explanations both for

Manukian's proposal to hold new presidential elections and

for other politicians' ambivalent response. Manukian may be

proceeding on the assumption that if a new poll were held

within the next few months, he would stand a good chance of

recapturing the "protest" vote against the economic status

quo. That vote had almost propelled him to the presidency in

1996, but two years, in the 1998 presidential poll later, he

had forfeited it to former Armenian Communist Party First

Secretary Karen Demirchian. By contrast, Miasnutiun would be

hard put at present to field a candidate who could compete

with Manukian in a fair poll. Its two charismatic leaders,

Demirchian and former Premier Vazgen Sargsian, were both

victims of the 27 October parliament shootings, and new

Premier Aram Sargsian (Vazgen's brother) has not yet proven

to be either a strong personality or a decisive and competent

economic manager.

In addition, delaying the new poll would give Miasnutiun

time to draft and submit to a nationwide referendum in May

its planned amendments to the present constitution

significantly curtailing the president's sweeping powers.

Delaying a new presidential poll until after the planned

referendum could also result in significant changes in the

present alignment of political forces. Veteran political

commentator David Petrosian defines that alignment as

follows: 1) the pro-Kocharian camp, which includes the ARFD,

Orinats Yerkir, "Right and Accord," the Ramkavar-Azatakan

Party, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and Arkadii

Ghukasian, president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh

Republic; 2) Prime Minister Aram Sargsian, Minister for

Industrial Infrastructures Vahan Shirkhanian, the Yerkrapah

Union of veterans of the Karabakh war, some senior Defense

and Interior Ministry officials, and the Miasnutiun

parliament faction (Communist Party leader Vladimir Darpinian

recently hinted that he might align with Miasnutiun); 3)

supporters of former president Levon Ter-Petrossian,

including the upper echelons of the Armenian Pan National

Movement and the 21st Century Party, led by Ter-Petrossian's

former National Security adviser David Shahnazarian; and 4)

the army, together with Defense Minister Vagharshak

Harutiunian and Interior Minister Hayk Harutiunian.

Petrosian observes that the third group is trying to

coopt the second, which he characterizes as lacking

intellectual potential. He also notes that the first three

groups are vying for the support of the army. If the second

and third groups were to field separate presidential

candidates, Vahan Shirkhanian and Karen Demirchian's son

Stepan might emerge as possible candidates from the premier's

entourage. On 21 January, Stepan Demirchian was elected

acting chairman of the People's Party of Armenia, which his

father founded.

If, however, those two groups join forces, one candidate

who might prove acceptable to both is Armen Sarkisian, who

served briefly as premier in 1996-1997 before resigning on

health grounds and who is currently Armenian ambassador to

the U.K. Petrosian has suggested that the primary purpose of

Prime Minister Sargsian's visit to London earlier this month

was to ascertain whether Armen Sarkisian would be willing to

run for the presidency.

01-02-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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