RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 23, 00-02-02

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 23, 2 February 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIA'S FOREIGN DEBT RISES

[02] LUKOIL HEAD TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN?

[03] TWO AZERBAIJANI SERVICEMEN APPREHENDED AFTER KILLING

[04] FORMER HEADS OF AZERBAIJAN'S STATE GOLD COMPANY FACE CRIMINAL

[05] AZERBAIJANI WAR VETERANS, POLICE CLASH IN BAKU

[06] TENSIONS RISING ON ABKHAZ-GEORGIAN BORDER

[07] SUPPORT FOR KAZAKHSTAN'S PRO-PRESIDENTIAL PARTY WANING

[08] THREE MEN DETAINED IN KAZAKHSTAN TRYING TO SELL URANIUM

[09] KAZAKHSTAN TIGHTENS VISA REQUIREMENTS...

[10] ...AS KYRGYZSTAN PREPARES TO RELAX THEM

[11] KYRGYZSTAN SEEKS MEMBERSHIP OF AFGHAN MEDIATION GROUP

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[12] IS MILOSEVIC ARMING HIS MONTENEGRIN BACKERS?

[13] MONTENEGRIN AUTHORITIES COOL ON SERBIAN OPPOSITION

[14] KOSOVA COUNCIL MEETING ENDS IN ACRIMONY

[15] KFOR ARRESTS TWO SERBS

[16] SERBIAN AUTHORITIES FIRE WORKERS AT INDEPENDENT PUBLISHER

[17] MESIC LEADS IN CROATIAN POLLS

[18] TUDJMAN'S 'KNIGHTS' COME UNDER SCRUTINY...

[19] ...WHILE HIS ADVISERS ARE SACKED

[20] ROMANIAN SENATE ELECTS NEW CHAIRMAN

[21] ROMANIA ACCUSES BULGARIA OF 'BRIDGE OBSESSION'

[22] ROMANIA BANS MEAT IMPORTS FROM MOLDOVA

[23] UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL CONFIDENT RUSSIA WILL WITHDRAW

[24] BULGARIAN PREMIER ASKS EXPATRIATES FOR HELP IN EU

[C] END NOTE

[25] GOOD FENCES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIA'S FOREIGN DEBT RISES

debt grew by 13 percent in 1999 and now stands at $876

million, slightly less than half of GDP, RFE/RL's Yerevan

bureau reported on 1 February, citing official statistical

data. The authorities estimate that the figure will rise to

$938 million by the end of this year. The Armenian government

and Central Bank will spend a total of $78 million on

external debt servicing in 2000. That figure is roughly one

fifth of projected government revenues. Last year, a total of

$61.6 million was spent on external debt servicing. LF

[02] LUKOIL HEAD TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN?

Alekperov is considering a bid for the presidency of

Azerbaijan, "Novye izvestiya" reported on 1 February, citing

sources close to Ilham Aliev, who is the son of Azerbaijan's

incumbent president and vice president of Azerbaijan's state

oil company SOCAR. The newspaper claims that Heidar Aliev

suggested to Alekperov in 1998 that he should run for

president in the absence of a qualified alternative

candidate, but Alekperov declined and Aliev was subsequently

re-elected for a second term in the October 1998 presidential

poll. Azerbaijani observers consider that Alekperov, who was

born in Baku and graduated from Azerbaijan's Oil and Chemical

Institute, has missed his chance and that Heidar Aliev is now

grooming his son to succeed him (see "RFE/RL Caucasus

Report," Vol. 2, No. 51, 24 December 1999). Meanwhile a group

of Azerbaijanis residing in Russia has proposed businessman

Ismail Tagizade as a candidate in the 26 March Russian

presidential poll, Turan reported on 1 February, citing "525-

gazeti." LF

[03] TWO AZERBAIJANI SERVICEMEN APPREHENDED AFTER KILLING

Two Azerbaijani conscripts who deserted their unit

in Geranboi on 30 January after shooting two officers and two

fellow servicemen were detained on 1 February in their homes

in Baku and Sumgait, Reuters and ITAR-TASS reported. An

investigation has begun into the motives for the shootings.

LF

[04] FORMER HEADS OF AZERBAIJAN'S STATE GOLD COMPANY FACE CRIMINAL

The president and vice president of Azergyzyl, the

state gold company liquidated by a presidential decree 10

days ago (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 January 2000), have been

charged with divulging state secrets, Interfax reported on 1

February. The two officials reportedly passed to a British

and a Pakistani company documents detailing the size of

Azerbaijan's gold reserves and the location of its gold

fields. LF

[05] AZERBAIJANI WAR VETERANS, POLICE CLASH IN BAKU

veterans of the Karabakh war and an unspecified number of

police were injured in a clash on 31 January in Baku, the

chairman of the Karabakh War Invalids' Society, Etimad

Asadov, told Turan on 1 February. The police were attempting

to demolish a tea house that the veterans had built in a Baku

square without official permission. The tea house provided

the veterans' sole source of income. LF

[06] TENSIONS RISING ON ABKHAZ-GEORGIAN BORDER

Abkhaz have gathered at the bridge over the Inguri River,

which marks the border between Abkhazia and the rest of

Georgia, Caucasus Press reported on 2 February, quoting a

member of the staff of the CIS peacekeeping force deployed

there. The Abkhaz are demanding the release of two Abkhaz

customs officers injured in a shootout last week and the

handing over of the bodies of three officers killed in that

clash. A group of Georgians has formed on the opposite side

of the bridge to demand the release of several Georgians

taken hostage by the unidentified Abkhaz (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 1 February 2000). LF

[07] SUPPORT FOR KAZAKHSTAN'S PRO-PRESIDENTIAL PARTY WANING

October 1999 parliamentary elections, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau

reported on 2 February, citing a recent poll of 2,000 people

conducted by the Almaty Sociologists and Politologists

Center. According to that survey, the Communist Party, which

has more than 30 percent support, is the most popular

political party in Kazakhstan, followed by the Civic Party.

OTAN, which was founded in January 1999 to support President

Nursultan Nazarbaev, is in third place with 20 percent

support. LF

[08] THREE MEN DETAINED IN KAZAKHSTAN TRYING TO SELL URANIUM

detained three men in Almaty who were in possession of

uranium that they had offered for sale, Interfax reported on

1 February, quoting Kazakhstan security officials. Interfax

said the quantity of uranium was 530 grams, while RFE/RL's

Almaty bureau put the figure at 3 grams. Specialists from

Kazakhstan's Nuclear Institute told RFE/RL that the uranium

was probably stolen from the Ulba metallurgical plant in

eastern Kazakhstan. LF

[09] KAZAKHSTAN TIGHTENS VISA REQUIREMENTS...

Kazakhstan no longer recognizes transit visas issued to

foreign nationals by other CIS member states, Reuters and

ITAR-TASS reported. A Kazakhstan Foreign Ministry spokesman

explained that "criminal elements" have taken advantage of

the "transparency" of Kazakhstan's borders, turning the

country into a transit corridor for weapons and drugs. This,

he continued, has adversely affected the security situation

throughout the country. LF

[10] ...AS KYRGYZSTAN PREPARES TO RELAX THEM

Ministry has drafted measures for the gradual introduction of

a visa-free regime for citizens of countries that belong to

the World Trade Organization, Interfax reported on 1

February. U.S. and Japanese citizens can already enter

Kyrgyzstan without a visa, and that regime will be extended

to Denmark, France, Italy, Germany, and Spain by the end of

this year. LF

[11] KYRGYZSTAN SEEKS MEMBERSHIP OF AFGHAN MEDIATION GROUP

Kofi Annan the possibility of Kyrgyzstan's joining the so-

called Six Plus Two group of countries, which are currently

engaged in trying to mediate a settlement of the civil war in

Afghanistan, Interfax reported on 1 February. The group

comprises Russia, the U.S., China, Iran, Pakistan,

Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Also, Akaev

repeated Kyrgyzstan's offer, first made in 1997, to host an

Afghan peace conference (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 31 May 1999).

LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[12] IS MILOSEVIC ARMING HIS MONTENEGRIN BACKERS?

who is a top official of the governing Democratic Party of

Socialists, said in Podgorica on 1 February that Montenegrin

backers of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic recently

increased the size of a paramilitary unit within the Yugoslav

forces stationed in Montenegro. The unit is called the

Seventh Battalion of the military police and includes an

unspecified number of followers of Yugoslav Prime Minister

Momir Bulatovic, who heads the pro-Milosevic faction in

Montenegro, AP reported. The Montenegrin authorities have

often charged that Milosevic is arming his followers in that

mountainous republic. He similarly armed his backers in

Croatia and Bosnia before launching wars there in 1991 and

1992, respectively. PM

[13] MONTENEGRIN AUTHORITIES COOL ON SERBIAN OPPOSITION

Minister Filip Vujanovic said in Podgorica that Milosevic has

caused many of the problems in relations between Montenegro

and Serbia. The prime minister added, however, that many

other difficulties will continue to exist regardless of who

is in power in Serbia. He stressed that future relations must

be based on full equality "and not depend on what kind of

regime there is [at the moment] in Belgrade," "Danas"

reported on 2 February. Elsewhere, Deputy Prime Minister

Novak Kilibarda criticized the Serbian opposition for

speaking too little in public about the program the

Montenegrin authorities published in 1999 as a basis for

redefining relations between the two republics. Observers

note that the Montenegrin authorities have provided the

Serbian opposition with moral support and a place to meet

without harassment by Milosevic's police, but ties between

Podgorica and the opposition do not go much beyond that. PM

[14] KOSOVA COUNCIL MEETING ENDS IN ACRIMONY

Prishtina adjourned the first meeting of the Interim

Administrative Council (IAC) on 1 February before any

agreement was reached on setting up new administrative

structures. The UN's Jock Covey said that he ended the

session because the followers of Ibrahim Rugova had failed to

dissolve their shadow-state institutions prior to the meeting

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 February 2000). The UN wants all

unofficial administrative structures disbanded lest they

impede the functioning of the IAC and the administrative

bodies subordinated to it. PM

[15] KFOR ARRESTS TWO SERBS

near Rahovec on 1 February. The men are suspected of

involvement in atrocities in a nearby village last year. PM

[16] SERBIAN AUTHORITIES FIRE WORKERS AT INDEPENDENT PUBLISHER

Belgrade on 1 February, Serbian authorities fired some 284

workers at the publishing house that prints the independent

daily "Glas Javnosti" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 February

2000). Union leaders called the move "illegal," AP reported.

One of several young men, whom the authorities sent to the

publishing house as "guards," fired a shot into the air.

Police are investigating the incident. PM

[17] MESIC LEADS IN CROATIAN POLLS

"Jutarnji list" and "Nacional" on 2 February give Stipe Mesic

of the four-party coalition some 45 percent of the votes and

Drazen Budisa of the two-party coalition 40 percent ahead of

the 7 February runoff presidential election. A third poll,

which appeared in "Globus," showed Mesic with 45 percent and

Budisa trailing with 31 percent, Reuters reported. Budisa has

won the support of many conservative voters who backed other

candidates in the first round. Herzegovinian voters, in

particular, favor Budisa. Mesic, however, appears to have

attracted the largest number of votes that previously went to

other candidates. There are few issues that separate Mesic

from Budisa, and the campaign has frequently centered on

personal insults instead. Mesic recently said in a newspaper

interview that if Budisa "hits low, I can hit even lower." PM

[18] TUDJMAN'S 'KNIGHTS' COME UNDER SCRUTINY...

months after his death, the press and opposition politicians

have begun making public the results of their investigations

into some practices of the late President Franjo Tudjman.

"Slobodna Dalmacija" on 2 February wrote that the fate of

perhaps billions of dollars donated by the diaspora to fund

the war of 1991-1995 remains unaccounted for. One program was

called the President's Knights' Fund, which required a

donation of $5,000-$10,000 for a knighthood. Tudjman

maintained great secrecy regarding the various fund-raising

programs, and only such trusted aides as Gojko Susak and

Hrvoje Sarinic had any detailed knowledge of them, the Split-

based daily added. PM

[19] ...WHILE HIS ADVISERS ARE SACKED

acting president Vlatko Pavletic "released from duty" some 20

employees of the president's office who had been advisers to

Tudjman. Many are top politicians belonging to Tudjman's

Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), including Ivic Pasalic,

Zlatko Canjuga, and Ivan Jarnjak, RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported. Elsewhere, officials of the HDZ decided

that the party's two deputy speakers in the parliament will

be Pavletic and Pasalic. Vladimir Seks will continue as HDZ

faction leader. PM

[20] ROMANIAN SENATE ELECTS NEW CHAIRMAN

leader Mircea Ionescu-Quintus was elected on 1 February as

Senate chairman, replacing Foreign Minister Petre Roman.

Ionescu-Quintus received 72 votes, compared with the 38

cast for Democratic Party candidate Dan Vasiliu. National

Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) candidate Ulm

Spineanu withdrew from the ballot, saying he wants the

Democratic Convention of Romania to vote for a single

candidate. Spineanu, who last week failed in his bid to be

elected PNTCD deputy chairman, also lost his post as PNTCD

parliamentary group leader and was replaced by George

Achim, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported on 1 February.

Following the defection from the PNTCD of former Premier

Radu Vasile's supporters, the ruling coalition is one vote

short in the Senate of the necessary majority to pass

special "organic" laws. MS

[21] ROMANIA ACCUSES BULGARIA OF 'BRIDGE OBSESSION'

Transportation Minister Traian Basescu told journalists on

1 February that the Bulgarian authorities "show a passion

for generating problems with us." Instead of dealing with

the whole complex of economic problems between the two

countries, Sofia "always raises the issue of a second

bridge over the [River] Danube," Mediafax quoted him as

saying. Basescu spoke after inconclusive talks last week in

Sofia between experts from the two governments. Among other

issues, he mentioned Bucharest's demands that transit fees

for Russian gas transported to Bulgaria through Romania be

raised and that it be allowed to export electricity to

Turkey and Greece via Bulgaria for low transit tariffs as

well as the issue of transiting nuclear waste from Bulgaria

to Russia. Basescu said further disagreements could

jeopardize the two countries' chances in their accession

talks with the EU. MS

[22] ROMANIA BANS MEAT IMPORTS FROM MOLDOVA

February banned meat imports from Moldova because of the

suspicion that Moldova is re-exporting meat and meat

products tainted with the "mad cow disease", AP reported,

quoting an Agricultural Ministry spokeswoman in Bucharest.

MS

[23] UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL CONFIDENT RUSSIA WILL WITHDRAW

Visiting Ukrainian Deputy Foreign

Minister Dmitro Tkaci said on 1 February that Ukraine is

confident Russia will honor its obligation to withdraw its

arsenal from the Transdniester by 2002, RFE/RL's Chisinau

bureau reported. He said the arsenal is worrying to his

country not only because of Ukraine's capacity as a

guarantor of agreements on the separatist region's future

but also because "no country wants 42 tons of munitions

stationed at its borders." Tkaci met with President Petru

Lucinschi and Prime Minister Dumitru Barghis to discuss

bilateral relations and the implementation of various

agreements. He said he is confident that the Ukrainian

parliament will ratify the Ukrainian- Moldovan border

treaty. Tkaci is traveling to Tiraspol on 2 February to

meet with separatist leaders to discuss "giving a new

impetus" to the talks on the conflict's resolution. MS

[24] BULGARIAN PREMIER ASKS EXPATRIATES FOR HELP IN EU

Ivan Kostov on 1 February said he is

sending invitations to 4,000 Bulgarian citizens who live

abroad to travel to Bulgaria in April to discuss with him

how they might contribute to the country's bid to join the

EU. Kostov said he plans to call on international air lines

to transport the expatriates home free of charge. During

their stay, they will be offered accommodation at the

government's expense, AP reported. MS

[C] END NOTE

[25] GOOD FENCES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS

An intensifying border dispute between Kazakhstan and

Uzbekistan calls attention to the obstacles all the countries

in Central Asia still face in coping with the challenge of

building state sovereignty.

The current dispute has been simmering for some time.

But it gained new prominence earlier this month when

Uzbekistan officials placed border post signs in the

Saryagach region of South Kazakhstan province, despite the

absence of any border agreement between the two countries.

The media in Kazakhstan immediately denounced the move as a

land and power grab by Tashkent.

The dispute escalated still further last week when

Kazakhstan's Foreign Minister Erlan Idrisov criticized

Uzbek officials for what he said was a totally illegitimate

action. Saying that "we have informed the Uzbek side in

strong terms that its steps are inadmissible," Idrisov said

that Kazakhstan "will not give up an inch of land."

Because this conflict has not resulted in violence,

many observers have been inclined to play down its

importance and to suggest that last week's exchange will

quickly lead to talks on the situation. That may happen,

but even if it does, the dispute shows that Central Asian

states have a long way to go to solidify their statehood.

All five have secured international recognition and

have projected power over most of the territory they claim

as their own. But they have not yet met the third criterion

of independent statehood as defined in the current

international environment: the establishment of

internationally recognized and uncontested borders.

The absence of such borders, the historical record

suggests, not only threatens relations among states but can

also undermine the ability of the respective governments to

maintain their control over their own populations and

territories. And these in turn can generate a spiral of

instability that can sweep away all other achievements of

the states involved.

There are three basic reasons why these countries have

not yet succeeded in establishing carefully delimited and

internationally recognized borders almost a decade after

the collapse of the Soviet Union led to their new status as

independent states.

First, like all other former Soviet republics, the

countries of Central Asia must contend with the always

difficult task of converting internal administrative borders

into internationally recognized state boundaries, a task all

the more problematic because of the way in which these

borders were drawn in the first place.

When they became independent, these countries had to

take what had been internal administrative lines over which

their governments had little control and turn them into

state borders with all the attributes of such frontiers--

checkpoints, customs facilities, and border patrols.

That challenge, which would have been difficult and

expensive in the best of circumstances, was complicated by

Soviet history. Moscow drew the current borders in Central

Asia for its own convenience, to heighten and

institutionalize ethnic conflicts as well as to integrate

these republics in a way that would help block any moves

toward independence.

Thus, Moscow worked to ensure that each Central Asian

republic had sizeable ethnic minorities from the titular

nationality of its neighbors, and it worked to structure

the transport and economic infrastructure in such a way

that none of them could exist easily except in the closest

commerce with the others.

That arrangement limited their chances of independence

in the past and creates the basis for irridentist

challenges and economic conflicts now.

Second, the post-Soviet states have been forced to

develop this aspect of their sovereignty even as Moscow and

the international community calls on them to yield some of

their state authority in order to participate in expanded

international commerce.

Since 1991, Moscow and the West, each for its own

reasons, have urged that the countries of this region not

move to create the kind of borders that in the past were

typical of the international system but rather set up

border arrangements more typical of the integration

patterns of Western Europe.

The Russian authorities see this as a means of

promoting Moscow's influence through the Commonwealth of

Independent States, and the West views such a commitment to

integration as a test of the worthiness of these states for

inclusion in broader international organizations.

And third, the Central Asian republics are forced to

take this step while dealing with population pressures,

water shortages, and widespread political instability.

Because of population growth, each of the Central

Asian countries is interested in gaining as much territory

as it can to produce food. Because of water shortages in

the region, each wants to have as much of the watershed as

possible. And because of widespread political instability,

each is concerned about setting up buffer zones around its

core area.

These three factors help to explain why the border

conflict between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan may prove to be

far more important than a quick glance might suggest. And

they also underscore the basic truth of American poet Robert

Frost's observation that "good fences make good neighbors."

02-02-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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