RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 21, 00-01-31

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 21, 31 January 2000 Report," Vol. 3, No. 1, 6 January 2000 and

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] U.S. REGISTERS PROGRESS IN KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS

[02] AZERBAIJAN PROTESTS SWISS INVESTMENT IN KARABAKH

[03] TWO GEORGIAN WARLORDS DISCUSS JOINING FORCES

[04] THREE MORE GEORGIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES APPLY FOR

[05] KAZAKHSTAN, CHINA SEEK TO RESOLVE OIL COMPANY DISPUTE

[06] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARLIAMENT CANDIDATES PROTEST MEDIA POLICY

[07] KYRGYZSTAN POSTS MODEST GDP GROWTH IN 1999 BUT FAILS TO PAY

[08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT ACCUSES DEPUTY PREMIER OF CORRUPTION...

[09] ...APPOINTS NEW AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA

[10] UZBEK POLICE CONFISCATE COUNTERFEIT DOLLARS

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] CROATIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN ENTERS FINAL WEEK...

[12] ...AS BUDISA, MESIC COMPETE FOR HDZ VOTES

[13] NEW CROATIAN AGENDA FOR BOSNIA

[14] BOSNIAN SERB GOVERNMENT COALITION BREAKING UP?

[15] MONTENEGRO SAYS SERBIA USING 'RACKET' AGAINST IT

[16] SERBIAN PUBLISHING HOUSE SHUT DOWN

[17] BELGRADE, BAGHDAD TO PROMOTE TRADE

[18] CONCERN IN ALBANIA OVER REPATRIATION AGREEMENT

[19] ROMANIAN FORMER PREMIER MOVES TO FORM NEW PARTY

[20] ROMANIA'S MAIN RULING PARTY SUPPORTS PRESIDENT

[21] REPUBLICA MOVEMENT OFFICIALLY SUPPORTS MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT

[22] BULGARIAN PREMIER MEETS WITH KOSOVA ALBANIAN LEADER

[23] BULGARIAN ETHNIC TURKISH LEADER WANTS TO CHANGE CONSTITUTION

[24] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT EXPLAINS VETOES

[C] END NOTE

[25] CROATIA TURNS ITS BACK ON TUDJMAN LEGACY

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] U.S. REGISTERS PROGRESS IN KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS

U.S. State Department official said in Davos on 28 January

that "there is clearly movement" in the Karabakh peace

process, AP and Reuters reported. "We are further ahead than

before," he added. Armenian President Robert Kocharian and

his Azerbaijani counterpart, Heidar Aliev, met for talks the

previous day on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in

Davos, and on 29 January held separate meetings with U.S.

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. No details of those

talks were revealed. Kocharian and Aliev, together with

Kyrgyzstan's President Askar Akaev, Kazakhstan's Prime

Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev, and the Turkish and Iranian

foreign ministers, also participated in a 28 January

roundtable during which participants unanimously agreed that

the Silk Road Project to revive east-west trade routes will

have a positive impact on the situation in the region. LF

[02] AZERBAIJAN PROTESTS SWISS INVESTMENT IN KARABAKH

official protest with its Swiss counterpart in connection

with the stated intention of two Swiss companies to begin the

production of clocks and jewelry in the unrecognized Nagorno-

Karabakh Republic and to embark on banking and agricultural

projects there, Armenian news agencies reported on 29 January

quoting the enclave's Foreign Minister Naira Melkumian. The

Azerbaijani statement termed the Swiss companies' plans an

encroachment on Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and

appealed to the Swiss government to prevent their

implementation. Representatives of Switzerland's Frank Muller

company visited Nagorno-Karabakh in July 1999. Armenian

President Robert Kocharian met in Davos on 29 January with

the head of the second Swiss company planning to begin

operations in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Armenian

Television reported. LF

[03] TWO GEORGIAN WARLORDS DISCUSS JOINING FORCES

Defense Minister Tengiz Kitovani and Colonel Akaki Eliava,

meeting in the west Georgian town of Senaki on 29 January,

agreed that Georgia can regain control of the unrecognized

Republic of Abkhazia only by means of a military operation in

which Georgia's armed forces participate, Caucasus Press

reported. Kitovani was jailed in 1995 for organizing a

spontaneous military campaign to reconquer Abkhazia. Eliava

has been in hiding in western Georgia since he led an

unsuccessful coup attempt in the fall of 1998 (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 19 and 20 October 1998). The two men told

journalists after their talks that their interests, including

winning back Abkhazia, coincide but that it is too early to

talks of joint actions. LF

[04] THREE MORE GEORGIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES APPLY FOR

The number of persons who wish to contest the 9

April presidential poll has risen to six, Caucasus Press

reported on 29 January, citing the Central Electoral

Commission. In addition to the incumbent, Eduard

Shevardnadze, and two political unknowns who last week

announced their intention to run (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26

January 2000), National Ideology Party chairman Zurab

Gagnidze, former Finance Minister Guram Absandze and Davit

Aghmashenebeli Party chairman Roin Liparteliani have applied

to the commission to register as candidates. Absandze is

implicated in the February 1998 attempt to assassinate

Shevardnadze. Liparteliani was barred from registering as a

candidate in the 1991 presidential election, and polled only

0.2 percent of the vote in the 1995 presidential poll. LF

[05] KAZAKHSTAN, CHINA SEEK TO RESOLVE OIL COMPANY DISPUTE

Chinese Vice Premier Wu Bangguo to discuss Kazakhstan's

Aktobemunaigaz company in which the Chinese National

Petroleum Company (CNPC) purchased a 60 percent stake in the

fall of 1997, Interfax reported. One year later, the CNPC

dismissed 2,000 employees of the company, but to date has

neither paid them compensation nor offered them alternative

employment. Toqaev said this failure risks compounding social

tensions in Aktobe Oblast. The two ministers also discussed

the planned construction of a gas export pipeline from

Kazakhstan to China. Agreement on that project was reached in

late 1997, but the agreed feasibility study for the project

has not yet been undertaken. Kazakh officials last summer

cast doubts on that project's economic viability (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 17 and 18 August 1999). LF

[06] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARLIAMENT CANDIDATES PROTEST MEDIA POLICY

leadership protesting that pro-government candidates for the

20 February parliamentary elections have greater access to

the media than do opposition candidates, RFE/RL's Bishkek

bureau reported. Also on 28 January, opposition El (Bei

Bechara) Party chairman Daniyar Usmenov, who is being held

under arrest in a Bishkek hospital, told RFE/RL that he is

not allowed to receive visits from prospective voters. The

reason given for that ban is the flu epidemic currently

sweeping the city. LF

[07] KYRGYZSTAN POSTS MODEST GDP GROWTH IN 1999 BUT FAILS TO PAY

Kyrgyzstan's Deputy Finance Minister Kubat

Kanimetov told a cabinet meeting in Bishkek on 28 January

that GDP grew by 3 percent and agricultural output by 8.7

percent last year, RFE/RL's bureau in the Kyrgyz capital

reported. But industrial production fell by 1.7 percent and

annual inflation totaled 39.9 percent. In addition, Kanimetov

warned that Kyrgyzstan's foreign debt now equals GDP, which

is $1.4 billion. He added that Kyrgyzstan failed last year to

repay $33 million owed to Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan and

must pay $87 million in foreign debts in 2000, which is equal

to 44 percent of total budget expenditure. Prime Minister

Amangeldi Muraliev said that in conjunction with the National

Bank and the World Bank, the government must draft a program

for repaying the country's external debt. LF

[08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT ACCUSES DEPUTY PREMIER OF CORRUPTION...

Niyazov accused 66-year-old Deputy Prime Minister and

Minister of Energy and Industry Saparmurat Nuryev of abusing

his official position for personal gain, Interfax and ITAR-

TASS reported. Niyazov claimed that Nuryev has "practically

privatized the energy sector" and appointed relatives to jobs

in the energy sector and machine-building and chemical

industries, for which he is responsible. Nuryev has been

dismissed as deputy premier but will retain his ministerial

post until an investigation into his alleged malpractice is

completed. LF

[09] ...APPOINTS NEW AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA

Niyazov appointed Khalnazar Agakhanov, Turkmenistan's

ambassador to Kazakhstan, to serve as ambassador to Moscow,

ITAR-TASS reported. Agakhanov was born in 1952 and served

from 1991-1999 as minister for trade and economic relations.

He replaces Nury Orazmukhammamedov, who will take up the post

of ambassador to Moldova. LF

[10] UZBEK POLICE CONFISCATE COUNTERFEIT DOLLARS

28 January arrested four men from whom they had confiscated a

total of 388,000 forged dollars, AP reported. The four men

said they purchased the counterfeit currency in the

neighboring Kazakh city of Shymkent from a native of the

Caucasus. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] CROATIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN ENTERS FINAL WEEK...

presidential contender Stipe Mesic on 30 January urged voters

to cast their ballots for him to prevent the large two-party

governing coalition from "having a monopoly on power." Drazen

Budisa, his opponent, accused Mesic of engaging in "populist

demagogy" typical of the defeated Croatian Democratic

Community (HDZ), RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported from

Zagreb. The following day, "Slobodna Dalmacija" published a

poll giving Mesic 43.5 percent of the vote and Budisa 34.4

percent. Some 22.1 percent remain undecided. PM

[12] ...AS BUDISA, MESIC COMPETE FOR HDZ VOTES

if elected president, he will ask defeated presidential

candidates Mate Granic and Slaven Letica to be his foreign

and domestic policy advisers, respectively. Budisa added that

he would like former General Antun Tus or sociologist Ozren

Zuneca to advise him on military matters, "Jutarnji list"

reported on 31 January. Letica and Zuneca told the daily that

Budisa did not mention the offer to either of them prior to

his public statement. They added that they would not like to

comment on that statement. Granic told the daily that he

appreciates the offer but that he prefers to concentrate on

his duties as a member of the parliament. Mesic, for his

part, said that he would like Granic to become ambassador to

the UN. Observers note that conservative voters who cast

their ballots for Granic in the first round of voting on 24

January are likely to decide the contest between Mesic and

Budisa (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 January 2000). PM

[13] NEW CROATIAN AGENDA FOR BOSNIA

Picula told "Slobodna Dalmacija" of 31 January that the new

Croatian government will carry out its obligations toward

Bosnia under the 1995 Dayton peace agreement "even if there

are certain [unspecified] political realities that we do not

like." Picula stressed that Zagreb will try to better the lot

of the Croats in the neighboring state but not by calling for

a revision of the Dayton agreement, as did the HDZ. Picula

added that he hopes a new election law in Bosnia will put an

end to ethnic polarization in voting patterns there. He

called upon Serbian and Muslim leaders to help end such

polarization. The Croatian government will continue to

provide financial assistance to the ethnic Croats in the

neighboring state but will do so in a completely transparent

manner. Picula also said that it is time to put an end to the

"political manipulation" of the Herzegovinian Croats.

Observers note that this is an apparent reference to the

close links between Croatian nationalists in Herzegovina and

hard-line HDZ factions in Croatia. PM

[14] BOSNIAN SERB GOVERNMENT COALITION BREAKING UP?

of the Republika Srpska voted on 29 January to support Prime

Minister Milorad Dodik's decision to sack Deputy Prime

Minister Tihomir Gligoric, whose Socialist Party belongs to

the governing coalition. Zivko Radisic, who is the ethnic

Serbian member of the Bosnian joint presidency and a member

of the Socialist Party, said Dodik should stop accusing the

Socialists of making trouble and "admit" that he himself will

be to blame if the coalition splits. Dodik, who supports the

opposition in Serbia, has recently been at odds with the

Socialists, whose party is linked to Milosevic's Socialist

Party (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 25 January 2000). PM

[15] MONTENEGRO SAYS SERBIA USING 'RACKET' AGAINST IT

Economics Minister Vojin Djukanovic said in Podgorica that

the Serbian authorities engage in a "racket" to extort money

from Montenegrin businesses. Montenegrin companies buying

goods in Serbia are forced to pay fees to the Serbian

authorities that are the equivalent in German marks of up to

$3,500 per truckload of goods. Djukanovic charged that

Belgrade uses the money from the Montenegrin companies to

"wage a political campaign against the authorities in

Podgorica," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 30

January. Meanwhile in Belgrade, Montenegrin Justice Minister

Dragan Soc said Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has

"used up" Kosova as a political issue and is now seeking to

make trouble with Montenegro. PM

[16] SERBIAN PUBLISHING HOUSE SHUT DOWN

January ordered closed the premises of the independent ABC

printing company, AP reported. The court made the move as

part of a bankruptcy procedure against the firm. ABC general

manager Slavoljub Kacarevic said, however, that the company

has reached agreements with its creditors. He charged that

the court wants to shut down his company because it publishes

the independent daily "Glas javnosti" and other anti-

Milosevic publications. PM

[17] BELGRADE, BAGHDAD TO PROMOTE TRADE

Borislav Vukovic agreed in Baghdad on 30 January with Iraqi

Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan to promote bilateral

trade. Ramadan said that Baghdad wants to "confront the

aggressive American policy against Iraq and Yugoslavia,"

Reuters reported. Vukovic replied that "Iraq has great

economic potential and [has successfully confronted] arrogant

U.S. policy." In November 1999, the two countries concluded a

trade agreement in conjunction with Iraq's oil-for-food

agreement with the UN. PM

[18] CONCERN IN ALBANIA OVER REPATRIATION AGREEMENT

Tirana dailies wrote on 30 January that Albania will have

difficulty carrying out its recent agreement with Germany to

help repatriate 100,000 refugees from Germany to Kosova.

"Gazeta Shqiptare" argued that the Albanian police do not

have the manpower to protect the convoys of refugees from

probable attacks by armed bandit gangs, dpa reported.

Elsewhere, an Albanian Defense Ministry spokesman said that

Germany has sent $3.5 million worth of military equipment to

Albania "in recent years." Observers note that much of it

comes from stocks of the former East German army. PM

[19] ROMANIAN FORMER PREMIER MOVES TO FORM NEW PARTY

on 28 January announced that he and 10 members of the

National Peasants' Party Christian Democratic (PNT-CD) will

leave that group and form their own political party. The

group of defectors includes PNTC-CD Vice President Sorin

Lepsa, who told a gathering of the party's top leadership on

28 January that he is "ashamed" of the way the party has

performed in government. The defectors also accused the PNT-

CD leadership of cronyism and adopting "dictatorial" stances.

PNT-CD President Ion Diaconescu said at the meeting that

Vasile has "proved his incapacity" as prime minister.

Delegates elected Agriculture Minister Ioan Muresan as PNT-CD

vice president and Remus Opris as secretary-general, Rompres

reported. VG

[20] ROMANIA'S MAIN RULING PARTY SUPPORTS PRESIDENT

announced on 30 January that it will support President Emil

Constantinescu for a second term in office, AP reported.

Constantinescu, who was present at the party's meeting on 30

January, thanked the delegates. But he added that the PNT-CD

must clarify allegations by some party members of corruption

within the PNT-CD. He also said the alleged "profiteers"

should "leave now." In other news, the former leader of the

Democratic Agrarian Party, Victor Surdu, has announced his

membership in the Party of Social Democracy in Romania,

Mediafax reported on 28 January. And the previous day, the

Federation of Rail Unions signed a protocol with the national

railway company management whereby wage increases are tied to

the company's monthly revenues. VG

[21] REPUBLICA MOVEMENT OFFICIALLY SUPPORTS MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT

assembly on 29 January that it supports President Petru

Lucinschi's intention to modify the country's constitution,

BASA-Press reported. Republica submitted to the president

lists containing some 500,000 signatures in support of the

president's aims. Former Interior Minister Mihai Plamadeala,

who was elected chairman of the Republica Presidium at the

general assembly, said the organization wants all political

forces in the country to sign a "pact of social consensus."

In addition to calling for a "tightening" of executive power,

Plamadeala called for revoking parliamentary deputies'

immunity, the establishment of a national anti-corruption

program, and an increase in local authorities' powers.

Lucinschi, who attended the meeting, said Republica's ideas

"perfectly coincide" with his own. In other news, Romanian

President Constantinescu on 28 January granted Lucinschi The

Star of Romania award for his contribution to "fraternal

relations" between their two countries and also in

recognition of the Moldovan leader's 60th birthday, Infotag

reported. VG

[22] BULGARIAN PREMIER MEETS WITH KOSOVA ALBANIAN LEADER

Thaci, the head of the former Kosova Liberation Army, on 29

January said he is confident Kosova will eventually gain its

independence from Serbia through a referendum, Reuters

reported. Thaci, who heads the Democratic Progress Party of

Kosova, made his comments after meeting with Bulgarian Prime

Minister Ivan Kostov in Sofia. Thaci said he believes that

"Bulgaria under Kostov will continue to be a stabilizing

factor in the Balkans." Arben Xhaferi, the leader of the

Democratic Party of Albanians in Macedonia, said "we need the

support of important external factors like Bulgaria and

Kosova for the stabilization of Macedonia." Both ethnic

Albanian leaders stressed that they want closer ties with

Bulgaria but added that such ties should not be based on what

Thaci described as "anti-Serbian feelings." VG

[23] BULGARIAN ETHNIC TURKISH LEADER WANTS TO CHANGE CONSTITUTION

Freedoms (MRF), Ahmed Dogan, on 30 January repeated his

recent call for the Bulgarian Constitution to be changed to

recognize ethnic minorities (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25

January 2000). Dogan made the comment after being re-elected

leader of the MRF at a party congress on 30 January. Thaci

and Xhaferi attended that meeting. In other news, Bulgarian

parliamentary deputies on 28 January approved agreements with

NATO on Bulgaria's participation in KFOR, BTA reported (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 26 January 2000). VG

[24] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT EXPLAINS VETOES

January explained his decision to veto recent amendments to

the Penal Code dealing with punishments for violating libel

laws and committing crimes under the influence of drugs, BTA

reported. Stoyanov said that while he agrees with the

parliament's decision to abolish prison sentences for libel

and defamation, he believes the fines that have been imposed

instead are too high. He added that amendments dealing with

the punishment of crimes committed under the influence of

drugs are not consistent with the trend of liberalization in

Bulgaria. VG

[C] END NOTE

[25] CROATIA TURNS ITS BACK ON TUDJMAN LEGACY

The ruling Croatian Democratic Community's (HDZ)

resounding defeat in the recent parliamentary and

presidential elections signals a turning point for Croatia.

The country's citizens flocked to the polls to vote out the

HDZ with the same sense of urgency and enthusiasm they had in

1990, when they ousted the communist regime and supported

Croatian independence. Only a few weeks have passed since the

death of President Franjo Tudjman, but the citizens of

Croatia have already turned their backs on his legacy with

breathtaking speed.

It is telling that the candidate who gained the

most votes in the first round of the presidential elections,

Stipe Mesic, was also the most uncompromising in his

criticism of Tudjman's regime. In fact, the three leading

candidates--including the HDZ's Mate Granic--all promised to

reduce the extensive powers of the presidency, cut aid to the

Herzegovinian Croats, and support the return of Serbian

refugees who fled Croatia during the war. Tudjman would have

regarded such policies as treason.

Even Granic sought to distance himself from

Tudjman's legacy. When speaking about Tudjman during the

campaign, he sought to emphasize the role he himself had

played as foreign minister in moderating the late president's

nationalism and anti-Western policies. Meanwhile, the HDZ has

been paralyzed by Tudjman's failure to organize an orderly

succession. Instead, the party shows every sign of rapid

fragmentation and may not last as a unified party much

longer.

Tudjman was very much a nationalist of the old school

and an authoritarian at heart. He believed in the sanctity of

the nation and nation-state. He regarded the continuation of

HDZ rule and his grandiose project to annex a piece of

Bosnia-Herzegovina for Croatia to be matters of national

survival. And he also surrounded himself with a motley crew

of radical emigres (many of whom had ties to the fascist

World War II Croatian regime), mediocre nationalist writers,

regime journalists, as well as other opportunists and "yes-

men" whose loyalty to him was unquestioning. For years, this

new elite was able to bully and manipulate the public into

backing Tudjman's policies and voting for the HDZ. Any figure

of any prominence who opposed these goals was labeled a

traitor and could expect to be hounded by the loyalist state

press or spied on by the secret police.

Ten years ago, Croatia voted in Tudjman and the HDZ

on a wave of nationalistic euphoria. Most Croats

wholeheartedly backed Tudjman's drive for Croatian

independence and even accepted his xenophobic and paranoid

statements about foreign anti-Croatian conspiracies during

the 1991-1995 war. Such statements were welcomed by those who

were frustrated with the West's unwillingness to intervene

against Serbian aggression.

Yet Tudjman's nationalist message began to lose its

appeal in peace time. Citizens became dissatisfied with his

autocratic and arrogant style of rule. They were also angered

by the financial scandals that dogged the new ruling elite,

including Tudjman's own family. But despite the system's

increasing public unpopularity and the growth of support for

the opposition Social Democrats, the system continued to

function as long as the "old man" was still alive but came

crashing down like a house of cards when the main player--the

man whom it was all designed to serve--left the political

scene.

In retrospect, it is probable that Tudjman's system

of values was never really accepted by a majority of Croatian

citizens. The hopes and dreams of most of Croatia's citizens

focus on economic prosperity and acceptance as a normal

European country. In the end, voters realized that Tudjman's

regime could not offer them anything more than economic

misery, corruption, and international isolation.

The international community now has high hopes for

Croatia. The country is the first of the big three (Bosnia

and Serbia being the other two) that were involved in the

wars of the Yugoslav succession to vote out its nationalist

regime. Both the EU and the U.S. hope that democratic and

economic reforms in Croatia will provide a shining example

for Serbia, Bosnia, and other countries in the region that

have lagged behind in the reform process.

The road ahead will be difficult. The HDZ has left

behind a myriad of social and economic problems. The new

government will have to maintain its unity and stick to its

course if it wants to solve these problems and keep the

confidence of its citizens. If it falters, however, Tudjman's

political successors may benefit from a public backlash.

Nevertheless, there will be no going back. The arrogant and

intractable policies that proved an obstacle to the country's

democratic development seem to have been laid to rest with

the late president.

The author is a Zagreb-based writer (akrickovic@aol.com)

31-01-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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