RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 213, 99-11-02

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 213, 2 November 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT ASKS PRESIDENT TO CONVENE EMERGENCY

[02] ARMENIAN NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER TENDERS RESIGNATION

[03] KARABAKH LEADERSHIP DENIES LINK WITH GUNMAN

[04] AZERBAIJAN'S PRESIDENT RECEIVES ATATURK PRIZE

[05] GEORGIA AGAIN DENIES PERMITTING TRANSIT OF ARMS TO CHECHNYA

[06] JAPAN SUSPENDS GOLD-MINING IN KYRGYZSTAN

[07] TAJIK PRESIDENT, OPPOSITION LEADER MEET

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[08] CROATIAN PRESIDENT UNDERGOES EMERGENCY SURGERY

[09] KOSOVA SERB POLITICIAN SHOT

[10] OSCE POINTS TO KOSOVA COURT CRISIS

[11] U.S. TO SUPPORT HEATING OIL AID TO YUGOSLAVIA

[12] BRITISH JOURNALIST SENTENCED TO JAIL IN YUGOSLAVIA

[13] YUGOSLAV CHIEF OF STAFF CONDUCTS TROOP INSPECTION NEAR

[14] DRASKOVIC TESTIFIES THAT POLICE TRIED TO ASSASSINATE HIM

[15] PETRITSCH NOTES WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE AMONG BOSNIAN SERBS

[16] ARRAIGNMENT OF DOSEN DELAYED

[17] EUROPEAN ANALYSTS CRITICIZE INTERNATIONAL HANDLING OF BOSNIA

[18] PETKOVSKI LEADS MACEDONIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE WITH ONE-THIRD

[19] ...WHILE BOTH LEADING CANDIDATES NOT HAPPY WITH RECOGNITION

[20] ROMANIAN PREMIER ACCEPTS EU COMMISSIONER PROPOSAL

[21] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT IN GREECE

[22] BULGARIAN PREMIER WANTS COMPENSATION FOR KOZLODUY CLOSURE

[C] END NOTE

[23] THE AFTERMATH OF A BLOODBATH IN PARLIAMENT

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT ASKS PRESIDENT TO CONVENE EMERGENCY

At a 1 November meeting of the Armenian parliament's

unofficial "coordinating council," leaders of all factions

asked President Robert Kocharian to convene an emergency

parliamentary session the following day, RFE/RL's Yerevan

bureau reported. That session is to elect a new speaker and

two deputy speakers to succeed the three officials gunned

down in the parliament on 27 October. Republican Party leader

Andranik Markarian, who is regarded as the most likely choice

for the post of parliament speaker, told Interfax on 1

November that the parliament will not diverge from the

political course set by the murdered leaders of the majority

Miasnutiun (Unity) faction, speaker Karen Demirchian and

Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian (see also "End Note" below).

LF

[02] ARMENIAN NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER TENDERS RESIGNATION

Kocharian on 1 November, Interfax reported, citing the

presidential press service. On 28 October, the Defense

Ministry had demanded the resignation of Sarkisian, the

interior minister, and the prosecutor-general for failing to

prevent the killings the previous day or to resolve two

earlier murders of military officials (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"

29 October 1999). Kocharian has not yet accepted the

resignation of either Sarkisian or Interior Minister Suren

Abrahamian, arguing that the present cabinet should remain in

office until the naming of a new premier. LF

[03] KARABAKH LEADERSHIP DENIES LINK WITH GUNMAN

press service of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic

on 1 November issued a statement rejecting as "a deliberate

and immoral provocation" allegations in an article in

"Segodnya," MEDIAMAX reported. The Russian daily had

suggested that Nairi Unanian, the leader of the five Armenian

parliament gunmen, had established links to the enclave's

present prime minister, Anushavan Danielian, when the two men

were working in Crimea in the early 1990s. The newspaper also

hypothesized that the Karabakh leadership could have

commissioned the 27 October shootings in order to thwart the

signing of a Karabakh peace agreement, the terms of which it

considered unacceptable. LF

[04] AZERBAIJAN'S PRESIDENT RECEIVES ATATURK PRIZE

who arrived in Ankara on a two-day official visit on 31

October, was presented with the Ataturk Peace Prize by

Turkish President Suleyman Demirel the following day, AP

reported. Aliev was to have traveled to Turkey in June to

receive that award but was prevented by poor health from

doing so. At the presentation ceremony, Demirel praised

Aliev's "key role in the transformation of Azerbaijan to a

free-market system, and his work for the welfare of his

people." Demirel also said that Azerbaijan's interests should

be protected during the search for a solution to the Karabakh

conflict, Reuters reported. LF

[05] GEORGIA AGAIN DENIES PERMITTING TRANSIT OF ARMS TO CHECHNYA

Shevardnadze again affirmed that Georgia is capable of

guarding its 80 kilometer frontier with Chechnya in order to

prevent the transport to that republic of arms and

mercenaries, Interfax reported. Russian officials have

repeatedly claimed that arms are being transported to

Chechnya across the unguarded border. Federal Security

Service spokesman Aleksandr Zdanovich repeated those charges

in Moscow on 1 November, adding that a French journalist

taken hostage last month had been seized by Chechen militants

on Georgian territory and taken across the border into

Chechnya. Georgian Frontier Guards commander Valerii

Chkheidze is to meet in Moscow on 2 November with his Russian

counterpart, Konstantin Totskii, to discuss how to prevent

Chechen guerrillas using mountain paths that cross the

border. LF

[06] JAPAN SUSPENDS GOLD-MINING IN KYRGYZSTAN

government agency engaged in the joint exploitation of the

Altyn-Jylga gold mine in southern Kyrgyzstan has suspended

operations there following the abduction in August of four

Japanese geologists, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 1

November, quoting Sheishenaly Murzagaziev, director of the

Kyrgyz State Agency for Geology and Mineral resources. The

Japanese, who were employed at the mine, were released late

last month following negotiations between Kyrgyz security

officials, Tajikistan's Minister for Emergency Situations

Mirzo Zieev, and representatives of the Uzbek Muslim

guerillas who seized the hostages. According to Tajik

sources, Japan paid a $5 million ransom for the four men, but

the Kyrgyz government denies this. Murzagaziev said that

Japan is willing to invest $4 million in developing gold

deposits in northern Kyrgyzstan. LF

[07] TAJIK PRESIDENT, OPPOSITION LEADER MEET

and United Tajik Opposition leader Said Abdullo Nuri met for

eight hours in Dushanbe on 1 November in an attempt to

resolve the tensions arising from the UTO's decision to

suspend participation in the Commission for National

Reconciliation. That decision is to protest restrictions on

the registration of opposition candidates wishing to contest

the 6 November presidential elections, Russian agencies

reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 October 1999). No details

of those talks have been released. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[08] CROATIAN PRESIDENT UNDERGOES EMERGENCY SURGERY

Tudjman was rushed to a Zagreb hospital for surgery on 1

November to repair a perforation in his large intestine.

Doctors declared the operation a success and said the

president is "feeling well," AP reported. Tudjman, 77, was

rushed to hospital after complaining of stomach pains. He had

canceled several meetings with Roman Catholic officials and

Croats living abroad during his recent visit to the Vatican.

In 1996, Tudjman underwent surgery in Washington for what

U.S. sources said was stomach cancer. However, he denied at

the time that he was suffering from cancer. VG

[09] KOSOVA SERB POLITICIAN SHOT

Momcilo Trajkovic was shot in the leg on 31 October by an

unidentified assailant. Trajkovic said he was shot outside

his home in Prishtina by two men who spoke Albanian. KFOR

commander Klaus Reinhardt denounced the attack as a

"terrorist" act and said it was "absolutely intolerable."

Reinhardt said Trajkovic, who is usually under KFOR

protection, had asked for the guard to be temporarily removed

on 31 October for "personal reasons." Bernard Kouchner, a top

UN official in Kosova, said Trajkovic is one of the UN's top

allies in building a "multi-ethnic Kosova." VG

[10] OSCE POINTS TO KOSOVA COURT CRISIS

OSCE mission in Prishtina, said the Kosova court system is in

crisis and that international jurists are required to resolve

it, Reuters reported. Describing the situation as a "massive

problem," Everts said not a single court case has been

brought to trial in Kosova since the arrival of KFOR troops

in June. He said a number of factors are responsible for the

crisis, including the insufficient number of judges, low pay,

inadequate court facilities, and uncertainty about what laws

should apply in Kosova. VG

[11] U.S. TO SUPPORT HEATING OIL AID TO YUGOSLAVIA

support an EU program to send millions of dollars worth of

heating oil to Yugoslavia, "The New York Times" reported on 2

November. The oil will be sent to Nis and Pirot, where the

local governments are opposed to Yugoslav President Slobodan

Milosevic. U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin

announced that Washington will support any humanitarian

initiatives that do not prop up the Milosevic regime. VG

[12] BRITISH JOURNALIST SENTENCED TO JAIL IN YUGOSLAVIA

Yugoslav judge has sentenced a British journalist to 10 days

in jail and expulsion. Dessa Trevisan, a Belgrade

correspondent for London's "The Times," was found guilty of

travelling through Serbia without an entry stamp in her

passport. Trevisan's lawyer, Djordje Mamula, blamed the

police for not stamping the journalist's passport at the

border, Beta reported. He said Trevisan will appeal the

decision. VG

[13] YUGOSLAV CHIEF OF STAFF CONDUCTS TROOP INSPECTION NEAR

Dragoljub Ojdanic on 1 November began what was

described as a "regular" inspection of Yugoslav troops

responsible for Montenegro, Reuters reported. The inspection

comes amid statements by Montenegrin officials that they are

preparing to introduce their own monetary system (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 1 November 1999). Ojdanic began his tour in the

Serbian town of Uzice, where he also met with local

authorities and businessmen. Tanjug reported that he is

reviewing the housing situation of troops that were withdrawn

from Kosova in June. He is scheduled to visit naval units in

Montenegro later this week. VG

[14] DRASKOVIC TESTIFIES THAT POLICE TRIED TO ASSASSINATE HIM

Draskovic, chairman of the opposition Serbian Renewal

Movement, testified in a court on 1 November that he was the

victim of an assassination attempt in early October, Beta

reported. After the hearing, Draskovic accused the Yugoslav

secret police of having staged a 4 October road accident in

which a truck swerved into a convoy of cars in which he was

travelling (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 October 1999). VG

[15] PETRITSCH NOTES WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE AMONG BOSNIAN SERBS

November that the Bosnian Serb leadership has indicated a

willingness to start cooperating with the tribunal, AP

reported. Earlier, Petritsch met with the international war

crimes tribunal's chief prosecutor, Carla del Ponte, in

Sarajevo. Radio B2-92 reported the same day that top

officials in the Bosnian Serb government are drawing up a law

on cooperation with the international war crimes tribunal.

The proposed law would reportedly envisage the arrest and

trial of war crimes suspects on Bosnian Serb territory in the

presence of international monitors. Petritsch also said the

international community is determined to arrest former

Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, Reuters reported. VG

[16] ARRAIGNMENT OF DOSEN DELAYED

war crimes suspect Damir Dosen was postponed on 1 November

after he injured himself playing volleyball, AP reported. VG

[17] EUROPEAN ANALYSTS CRITICIZE INTERNATIONAL HANDLING OF BOSNIA

in Bosnia-Herzegovina have released a report criticizing the

international community's peace and restoration efforts in

Bosnia, the "Frankfurter Rundschau" reported. The report,

issued by the European Stability Initiative (ESI), concludes

that efforts to establish a lasting peace process in the

country since the 1995 Dayton agreement have failed. The

group argues that the governing institutions set up by the

West in Bosnia-Herzegovina "exercise no effective power" in

the country. At the same time, the report notes that war-

related power structures and the communist command economy

have remained largely unchallenged. The ESI was set up last

year by Christian Schwarz-Schilling, a former international

arbitrator in Bosnia. VG

[18] PETKOVSKI LEADS MACEDONIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE WITH ONE-THIRD

With the vote tallied in 74 of Macedonia's 85

constituencies, Social Democratic candidate Tito Petkovski

had won about 33 percent of the vote in Macedonia's 31

October presidential election, Reuters reported the next day.

Deputy Prime Minister Boris Trajkovski was in second place

with 21 percent. The two candidates will face each other in a

run-off on 14 November. VG

[19] ...WHILE BOTH LEADING CANDIDATES NOT HAPPY WITH RECOGNITION

Both Petkovski and Trajkovski told Reuters on 30

October that they are unhappy about Macedonia's diplomatic

recognition of Taiwan. They said China is blocking every

resolution related to Macedonia in the UN Security Council in

retaliation for the recognition. Petkovski added that he will

support closer ties with China if elected. Democratic

Alliance presidential candidate Vasil Tupurkovski, who

finished third in the vote, said the restoration of economic

ties with China would be a disaster for Macedonia. Macedonia

has received foreign investment from Taiwan as a result of

the recognition. Tupurkovski said he will call on his voters

to back the candidate who promises to maintain diplomatic

relations with Taiwan. VG

[20] ROMANIAN PREMIER ACCEPTS EU COMMISSIONER PROPOSAL

Vasile has approved EU commissioner for enlargement Guenter

Verheugen's proposal to set up a working group of experts

from Romania, the European Commission, the IMF, and the World

Bank to draw up a plan for Romania's economic reforms and

oversee their implementation (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1

November 1999). Vasile said he has accepted the proposal

because radical economic reform cannot succeed without

"massive external financing." The group is to set short-term

targets as well as medium-range ones up to 2006, RFE/RL's

Bucharest bureau reported. MS

[21] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT IN GREECE

Lucinschi and his Greek host, Konstantinos Stephanopoulos,

have signed agreements on economic, technological, and

agricultural cooperation, AP reported on 1 November.

Stephanopoulos said Greece will support Moldova in its

efforts to integrate into European structures. Lucinschi

invited Greek businessmen to increase their investments in

Moldova. He also met with Prime Minister Konstantinos

Simitis, with whom he discussed, among other things,

bilateral relations, regional affairs, and the activities of

the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization. MS

[22] BULGARIAN PREMIER WANTS COMPENSATION FOR KOZLODUY CLOSURE

Party parliamentary group leader, Ivan Kostov said in the

parliament on 29 October that Bulgaria "will not budge" from

its present energy strategy if the EU does not offer it

compensation for the early closure of the controversial

Kozloduy nuclear plant. The government asked the legislature

for another mandate to conduct negotiations with the EU on

the early closure of the plant's first and second units and

the future of the newer third and fourth units, BTA reported.

The current energy strategy approved by the parliament

stipulates that the older reactors will be shut down in 2003

and 2005 and the newer ones in 2008 and 2010. The agency

reported on 1 November that parliamentary representatives say

they are ready to grant the government's request for another

mandate. MS

[C] END NOTE

[23] THE AFTERMATH OF A BLOODBATH IN PARLIAMENT

The recent killings of the Armenian prime minister,

parliamentary speaker, and other officials have raised

concerns over the fate of Armenian democracy and political

stability. While the tragedy of the murders cannot be

overstated, it should be noted that the loss of these

political leaders does not necessarily constitute a fatal

blow to Armenian democracy. No political figure or figures

are more vital to the strength of democracy than are the

institutions of democracy themselves. Although democracy in

Armenia is still significantly vulnerable as it continues

strengthening the rule of law and consolidating the

institutions crucial to the democratic process, the isolated

murders committed in the Armenian parliament do not pose a

potentially dangerous challenge to the political stability

and democracy of Armenia. This tragic event is not so much

the beginning of a downward spiral into national chaos and

instability as an aberration of Armenian politics.

Although the fragility of Armenia's emerging democracy

is evident, there is no threat to the foundations of the

country's rule of law and national stability. Even the

gunmen's inarticulate message vowing to punish the ruling

political elite for the socio-economic suffering of the

people is rooted in the genuine concerns of the growing

social disparity, marked by a sharp divide between the very

rich and the very poor, and the legacy of economic isolation

as a result of the Azerbaijani-imposed blockade of the

country. The gunmen's actions only reinforce the need for the

Armenian government to continue strengthening the rule of

law, ensuring greater transparency in politics, and

accelerating the fight against corruption in all levels of

society. Armenian President Robert Kocharian, meanwhile, is

faced with the challenge of returning to normal governance,

including forming a new cabinet to reassure a shocked nation.

Compounding the internal situation is the challenge of

the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process under the sponsorship of

OSCE. With the recent Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential and

ministerial meetings seeking to forge a settlement before the

OSCE Istanbul summit later this month, the peace process

combines elements of "promise and pressure"--that is,

promising regional economic development and pressuring the

parties to negotiate. For Azerbaijan, a significant factor is

the condition of 76-year-old President Heidar Aliev, who is

still recovering from heart surgery. Aliev is determined to

establish his own legacy for Azerbaijan but is faced with an

urgent need to secure some degree of political victory.

The path toward settlement is strewn with geopolitical

considerations centered on the "pipeline politics" of the

region and by the Russian military effort to reassert its

influence in the Caucasus. Other factors are internal

dissension in Azerbaijan, as seen by the departure of that

country's foreign minister and long-serving presidential

foreign policy adviser. For Azerbaijan, the Karabakh

conflict, which is deadlocked both by the failure to settle

the conflict militarily and Baku's inability to coerce an

Armenian capitulation despite the blockade it imposed (with

Turkish help) on Armenia and Karabakh, has frustrated many of

Aliev's efforts to improve Azerbaijan's image and standing in

the international community.

Even more frustrating is the continued geopolitical

maneuvering over the oil pipeline essential to allow

Azerbaijan to fully profit from its Caspian energy reserves.

Regional and world powers, each with an eye on their own

interests, have exploited Azerbaijan's vulnerability stemming

from its reliance on a pipeline route to export its oil. And

with such reliance on only one sector of its struggling

economy, Aliev's leadership has dangerously ignored the

growing social needs of its population, as demonstrated by

the critical situation of its neglected displaced persons and

refugees.

This internal frustration has led Aliev to increased

political repression, intimidation, and consolidation of

personal power, all of which is made possible by a stunted

political apparatus that includes an ineffective parliament

under the president's control, and a marginalized and

disenfranchised political opposition, and a government marked

by corruption and "cronyism" flourishing on the basis of

petro-dollar graft. Moreover, Aliev has long been grooming

his son to replace him as leader and has simultaneously

sought to prevent any rivals from emerging as potential

leaders. Such moves have thwarted the development of any

class of true leadership and will likely deprive the country

of any promise of real political stability in the post-Aliev

period. These internal pressures, given their increasingly

powerful effect on the president, may lead the Azerbaijani

government to a new, more flexible stand on Karabakh.

Combined with the external pressure, they may also induce

Aliev to enter into substantive negotiations on Karabakh for

the first time.

The coming weeks present perhaps the most serious

challenge to the Kocharian government. The OSCE Istanbul

summit will focus on the draft "common state" proposal, a

vague and as yet undefined concept of new "horizontal"

relations between Karabakh and Azerbaijan as well as a

possible means of launching final status talks, provided that

Karabakh's security concerns are addressed. Although this

"common state" proposal is the fairest and most realistic of

all OSCE plans to date, the real test of its viability lies

in the details.

The author is editor of the monthly "Transcaucasus: A

Chronology."

02-11-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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