RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 160, 99-08-18

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 160, 18 August 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] SOUTH CAUCASUS STATES OFFER EARTHQUAKE AID TO TURKEY

[02] ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN KARABAKH

[03] PROTESTS IN AZERBAIJANI EXCLAVE CONTINUE

[04] DAGHESTAN CONFLICT WILL NOT AFFECT AZERBAIJAN OIL EXPORT

[05] RUSSIA TO APOLOGIZE FOR BOMBING GEORGIAN VILLAGE

[06] KAZAKH EX-PREMIER'S SUPPORT BASE CRUMBLING?

[07] KAZAKHSTAN EXPORT PIPELINE LIKELY TO BE SHELVED

[08] KYRGYZ OFFICIAL ACCUSES BATKEN GUERILLAS OF PLANNING 'ISLAMIC

[09] TURKMENISTAN POSTS SOLID INCREASE IN FOREIGN TRADE

[10] UZBEKISTAN CLARIFIES CIRCUMSTANCES OF BOMBING RAIDS

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] SERBIAN GENERAL THREATENS CRACKDOWN

[12] BELGRADE REGIME WARNS OPPONENTS...

[13] ...TAKES MEASURES AGAINST THEM

[14] BELGRADE DEMONSTRATION LOSING SUPPORT?

[15] YUGOSLAV PARLIAMENT CUTS IMPORT DUTIES

[16] SERBIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BACKS MONTENEGRIN PLAN

[17] EU PREPARING TO END SANCTIONS AGAINST KOSOVA, MONTENEGRO

[18] LOCAL SERBIAN LEADER DENIES BREAKTHROUGH IN MITROVICA

[19] ANOTHER GRENADE ATTACK AGAINST SERBS IN GJILAN

[20] TORTURE CHAMBER DISCOVERED IN PRISHTINA'S GRAND HOTEL

[21] UN LAUNCHES PRISHTINA CLEAN-UP CAMPAIGN

[22] MAJKO WANTS 'PAN-ALBANIAN EDUCATION SYSTEM'

[23] IZETBEGOVIC SLAMS FRAUD CHARGE

[24] SACKED CROATIAN MINISTER BLAMES TOP LEADERS

[25] DEMOCRATIC PARTY LEADER TO RUN FOR ROMANIAN PRESIDENCY

[26] ROMANIA'S HUNGARIAN CHURCH TO SET UP PRIVATE UNIVERSITY

[27] MOLDOVAN COMMISSION RECOMMENDS CHANGING DESIGNATION OF

[28] BULGARIA'S KOZLODUY REACTOR SHUT DOWN

[C] END NOTE

[29] SERBIAN PROTESTS: WILL THIS TIME BE DIFFERENT?

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] SOUTH CAUCASUS STATES OFFER EARTHQUAKE AID TO TURKEY

message to Turkish President Suleyman Demirel expressing

condolences over the earthquake that struck the west

Anatolian city of Izmit earlier that day, Turan reported.

Azerbaijan has sent 30 doctors and 30 aid workers to

participate in relief work. Armenian President Robert

Kocharian similarly expressed condolences in a telegram to

Demirel, according to Noyan Tapan. An Armenian government

source told the agency that Armenia is prepared to send

rescue groups to Turkey if asked to do so. In Tbilisi,

Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili expressed condolences

to his Turkish counterpart, Ismail Cem, Interfax reported. A

group of 10 Georgian rescue workers left for Turkey on 18

August. LF

[02] ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN KARABAKH

Stepanakert on 17 August with Arkadii Ghukasian, president of

the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, to discuss

"organizational issues" connected with a major conference to

be held in Armenia next month on relations between that

country and the diaspora, RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent

reported. Oskanian later told deputies to the enclave's

parliament that the conference will explore "the need to

establish a pan-Armenian umbrella structure" as well as

discuss the economic development of Armenia and Nagorno-

Karabakh and the creation of a "single Armenia-Karabakh-

diaspora information space." With regard to the ongoing

search for a political solution to the Karabakh conflict,

Oskanian said "the Armenian side is now in a better

diplomatic position than ever before." Also on 17 August,

Karabakh Foreign Minister Naira Melkumian met with Andrzej

Kasprczik, who is the permanent representative of the OSCE

chairman-in-office, to discuss preparations for the latter's

visit to Stepanakert next month, according to Noyan Tapan. LF

[03] PROTESTS IN AZERBAIJANI EXCLAVE CONTINUE

have again picketed the local government building to protest

the authorities' handling of the 12 July clash involving

local residents and employees of the Sadarak customs post,

Turan reported on 17 August. Local residents have staged

periodic protests for the past five weeks to demand the

firing of the head of the customs post, whom they blame for a

clash in which one person was killed and four injured (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 14 July 1999). The participants in the 17

August picket also demanded a meeting with Nakhichevan

parliamentary chairman Vasif Talibov to discuss their

demands. LF

[04] DAGHESTAN CONFLICT WILL NOT AFFECT AZERBAIJAN OIL EXPORT

Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR as denying that the

hostilities in Daghestan constitute a serious threat to the

continued export of Azerbaijani oil via the Russian

Federation. But he admitted that the present system for

exporting crude by rail from Makhachkala to Tikhoretsk allows

Baku to export just over half the planned amount of 120,000

metric tons per month. He rejected as untrue claims by

Russia's pipeline monopoly Transneft that SOCAR exported 1.5

million tons of oil via the Baku-Grozny-Novorossiisk pipeline

during the first six months of this year. LF

[05] RUSSIA TO APOLOGIZE FOR BOMBING GEORGIAN VILLAGE

air force will official apologize to the Georgian leadership

in the name of the Russian Defense Ministry for the 9 August

incident in which two Russian aircraft bombed the village of

Zemo Omalo in northeastern Georgia, Interfax and

"Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported. According to an unnamed

Defense Ministry source, the commission created to

investigate the incident concluded that the pilots dropped

mines on the village by accident, their intended target being

Botlikh Raion in neighboring Daghestan. In related news,

ITAR-TASS reported on 17 August that Russian Foreign Minister

Igor Ivanov will visit Tbilisi on 3-4 September. LF

[06] KAZAKH EX-PREMIER'S SUPPORT BASE CRUMBLING?

Akezhan Kazhegeldin's Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan

addressed an open letter to Kazhegeldin on 17 August

announcing that they are quitting the party, Interfax

reported. The six accused the party's deputy chairman, Gaziz

Aldamzharov, of being unable to overcome divisions within the

party. They noted that they had warned Kazhegeldin earlier of

an imminent split in the party's ranks but he had ignored

such warnings. Kazhegeldin left Kazakhstan in December 1998,

shortly after the party's founding congress. The six also

announced their intention to create a new party in the near

future that will "unite all sane opposition forces." It is

unclear whether they consider it feasible to do so before the

10 October elections to the lower chamber of the parliament.

LF

[07] KAZAKHSTAN EXPORT PIPELINE LIKELY TO BE SHELVED

17 August quoted an unnamed Kazakh gas sector official as

predicting that Astana may abandon plans for an oil export

pipeline to China. The official said that the Kazakh

government will probably reject the feasibility study on that

project, which is expected to be completed shortly (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 17 August 1999). The Kazakh official said

that Chinese engineers who participated in the feasibility

study agree that the 2,900-kilometer pipeline "is too long."

In late 1997, China and Kazakhstan signed a general agreement

on construction of the pipeline at an estimated cost of $2.7

billion. LF

[08] KYRGYZ OFFICIAL ACCUSES BATKEN GUERILLAS OF PLANNING 'ISLAMIC

In a telephone interview with RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau

on 17 August, Kyrgyz National Security Ministry spokesman

Talant Razzakov claimed that the ethnic Uzbek guerrilla band

headed by Juma Namangani aims to create an Islamic state in

the Fergana Valley that would include the Andijan, Fergana,

and Namangan Oblasts of Uzbekistan and the Leninabad Oblast

of Tajikistan. Razzakov estimated the guerrillas' total

strength at more than 1,000, and claimed that some of them

were trained in Afghanistan. Kyrgyz forces are continuing

military action against 21 of Namangani's men who took four

Kyrgyz officials hostage in southern Kyrgyzstan on 6 August.

The hostages were released on 13 August. LF

[09] TURKMENISTAN POSTS SOLID INCREASE IN FOREIGN TRADE

$1.22 billion during the first half of 1999, compared with

the same period last year, Interfax reported on 17 August

quoting the National Statistics Institute. The trade surplus

as of 30 June 1999 was $112.1 million, compared with a

deficit of $259.4 million the previous year. Also during the

first six months of 1999, industrial output rose by 19

percent, primarily as a result of a 160 percent increase in

gas production and a 60 percent increase in the output of the

cotton industry. LF

[10] UZBEKISTAN CLARIFIES CIRCUMSTANCES OF BOMBING RAIDS

August that at the request of the Kyrgyz government, Uzbek

combat jets dropped bombs two days earlier on the district of

southern Kyrgyzstan in which ethnic Uzbek guerrillas from

Tajikistan are entrenched, Interfax reported. Kamilov and

Uzbek Security Council Secretary Morakbar Rakhmonkulov said

those strikes were justified as the guerrillas had planned to

cross into Uzbekistan and stage attacks there. Kamilov

admitted that the Uzbek aircraft may have inadvertently

dropped bombs on the territory of neighboring Tajikistan,

noting that the guerrillas are very close to the frontier

between the two countries. Tajikistan on 16 August delivered

an official protest to Tashkent over the attack (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 17 August 1999). LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] SERBIAN GENERAL THREATENS CRACKDOWN

Pavkovic, who commands the Nis-based Third Army, told

Belgrade's "Glas javnosti" of 17 August that the army must

intervene to separate opposing groups if that is necessary

"to prevent civil war." He stressed that the army will not

allow anyone to seize power "illegally." Pavkovic noted that

the army's crackdown in March 1991 led to "human losses and

destruction." But he stressed that the death and destruction

would have been far worse had the army not intervened to put

down demonstrations against Serbian leader Slobodan

Milosevic. Observers suggest that Pavkovic's remarks are a

warning that the army may intervene again if there is

politically-inspired violence in conjunction with the

Yugoslavia-Croatia soccer match on 18 August or the

opposition rally the following day. Both events are to take

place in Belgrade. PM

[12] BELGRADE REGIME WARNS OPPONENTS...

Momir Bulatovic told the parliament on 17 August that an

unspecified "powerful, illegal, international movement" seeks

to overthrow the "legally elected Yugoslav government."

Telecommunications Minister Ivan Markovic of the hard-line

United Yugoslav Left said that "the agents of terrorism in

Serbia are not just the members of the so-called Kosova

Liberation Army (UCK), but those gathered in the Alliance for

Change." The alliance is one of the main sponsors of the 19

August demonstration. Elsewhere, the state-run daily

"Politika" called unnamed members of the opposition

"political midgets and losers." PM

[13] ...TAKES MEASURES AGAINST THEM

arrested artist Bogoljub Arsenijevic on 17 August in front of

the Belgrade offices of former General Momcilo Perisic's

Movement for Democratic Serbia. A spokesman for the movement

criticized the police action and promised that "our lawyers

will launch proper legal action" on Arsenijevic's behalf. The

artist attracted public attention in July when he led a

violent take-over of the town hall in Valjevo (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 13 July 1999). In Pancevo, the local Prosecutor's

Office began an investigation into opposition leader Vesna

Pesic's remarks at a recent rally in Vrsac, RFE/RL's South

Slavic Service reported on 17 August. Pesic told the

protesters that the Serbian people might get rid of Milosevic

by using the "Romanian method" unless he goes voluntarily.

Her remarks were an allusion to the violent overthrow of

Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in December 1989. Top

Serbian officials subsequently accused her of encouraging

"terrorism" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 August 1999). PM

[14] BELGRADE DEMONSTRATION LOSING SUPPORT?

Movement leader Vuk Draskovic said in Belgrade on 17 August

that he will not attend the Belgrade demonstration but will

be represented by his deputy instead. Draskovic did not give

a clear reason for reversing his earlier decision to attend.

He said only that he cannot "accept many many stupid ideas of

[unspecified] irresponsible people," Reuters reported. He

also suggested that he fears that the rally could turn

violent, AP noted. Observers said that Draskovic is piqued

because he was slated to speak only second. Shortly after

Draskovic announced his decision not to attend, Alliance for

Change leader Vladan Batic said that he will not address the

gathering, the Frankfurt-based Serbian daily "Vesti"

reported. It is unclear why, nor is it clear whether he plans

to attend at all. PM

[15] YUGOSLAV PARLIAMENT CUTS IMPORT DUTIES

legislature on 17 August approved significant cuts in the

import taxes for cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, and used

cars, "Danas" reported. At that same parliamentary session,

Sports Minister Velizar Djeric denied rumors that his

ministry bought up 22,000 out of a total of 70,000 tickets to

the Yugoslavia-Croatia match. Critics had charged that the

ministry sought to pack the stadium with Milosevic

supporters. PM

[16] SERBIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BACKS MONTENEGRIN PLAN

Democratic leader Vuk Obradovic said that the Serbian

opposition finds Montenegro's proposal for redefining

relations between the two republics "basically acceptable"

(see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 10 August 1999). He added,

however, that Montenegrin officials would be "wasting their

time" if they tried to negotiate the plan with Milosevic,

RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported from Podgorica on 17

August. Obradovic stressed that this is the view of most

opposition parties in Serbia. PM

[17] EU PREPARING TO END SANCTIONS AGAINST KOSOVA, MONTENEGRO

spokesman for the EU Presidency, which is currently held by

Finland, said in Brussels on 17 August that EU officials will

lift economic sanctions against Kosova and Montenegro "soon."

He added that experts are studying ways to make sure that

Milosevic and the Serbian authorities do not benefit from the

move, Reuters reported. One key problem is preventing

Montenegrin oil imports from reaching Serbia. Another is

ensuring that Serbia's JAT airlines does not profit from the

reopening of flights from EU countries to Montenegro's two

airports. PM

[18] LOCAL SERBIAN LEADER DENIES BREAKTHROUGH IN MITROVICA

Ivanovic, who is the leader of Mitrovica's Serbs on the

city's UN-chaired interim council, denied on 17 August that

Serbs and Albanians in the city have agreed on a plan to end

the division of the city, AP reported. The previous day,

Bajram Rexhepi, who is Ivanovic's counterpart in the

Albanian-dominated south of the city, reported that both

sides agreed on the return of 25 Albanian families per day to

the north. Ivanovic, however, stressed that "relentless

Albanian onslaughts on the Ibar River bridge [which divides

the two parts of the city] are very dangerous." He referred

to several recent incidents in which local Albanians seeking

to return to their homes in the north clashed with French

troops who were blocking the bridge. FS

[19] ANOTHER GRENADE ATTACK AGAINST SERBS IN GJILAN

17 August, AP reported. It was the second grenade attack

against the Serbian community in that region within two

days (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 August 1999). The same

day, Russia charged Western countries with "turning a

blind eye" to attacks against Serbs (see Part I). FS

[20] TORTURE CHAMBER DISCOVERED IN PRISHTINA'S GRAND HOTEL

that the staff of the Grand Hotel has discovered two

prison cells and a torture chamber in an underground

building belonging to the hotel. The daily added that

the employees found women's clothes and lists containing

the names of unspecified students, an RFE/RL South

Slavic Service correspondent reported. During the recent

conflict, journalists reported that Serbian

paramilitaries used the building as their command

center. Many foreign journalists stayed at the hotel,

which also housed the regime's media center.

International war crimes investigators have started

investigations. FS

[21] UN LAUNCHES PRISHTINA CLEAN-UP CAMPAIGN

Representative Bernard Kouchner launched a municipal

clean-up campaign in Prishtina on 17 August, Reuters

reported. Kouchner said that since the war "all over the

place in the city garbage was...disposed [of in a way

that poses a] real danger for public health." He added,

however: "We are confident that through this project,

we'll be able to make Prishtina a clean and beautiful

city." The initiative, called "I love my city

Prishtina," is the beginning of a larger cleanup project

for the whole of Kosova, which is jointly financed by

the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the UN Development

Program. It receives substantial technical support from

KFOR and employs 330 locals. FS

[22] MAJKO WANTS 'PAN-ALBANIAN EDUCATION SYSTEM'

Minister Pandeli Majko has urged Education Minister Ethem

Ruka to draw up plans to unify education in Albanian language

in Albania, Kosova, and Macedonia and intensify cooperation

between the universities of Tirana and Prishtina, Reuters

reported on 17 August. He said that "it is time to talk about

[creating] a unified strategy for education in Albanian

wherever Albanians live in the Balkans." Majko stressed that

"this is...a turning point to make the biggest investment for

the future of the Albanian community in the Balkans," adding

that first steps should include an exchange of teachers and

professors. Majko argued that "Albanians should read the same

history because we are part of the same history. Now it is

time for us Albanians in the Balkans to make history." FS

[23] IZETBEGOVIC SLAMS FRAUD CHARGE

Izetbegovic called a "New York Times" report on massive fraud

in his republic "lies." He charged that the article

constitutes an attempt to discredit his government and deter

foreigners from investing in Bosnia, "Oslobodjenje" reported

on 18 August (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 August 1999).

Izetbegovic issued a statement rebutting several specific

charges of fraud cited in the article. In Washington, a State

Department spokesman noted that "U.S. government assistance

has not been misused or abused to the best of our knowledge."

VOA's Croatian Service reported that the embezzled funds

amount to 20 percent of all public money in Bosnia. In

Sarajevo, a spokeswoman for the office of the international

community's high representative said the "lost" money

probably totals more than $1 billion. PM

[24] SACKED CROATIAN MINISTER BLAMES TOP LEADERS

whom President Franjo Tudjman recently fired as minister of

transportation, maritime affairs, and communications, has

blamed several top officials for his demise (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 5 August 1999). Luzavec singled out Ivic Pasalic,

who is Tudjman's top adviser, as well as Deputy Prime

Minister Ljerka Mintas-Hodak and Reconstruction Minister Jure

Radic, "Novi List" reported on 18 August. Luzavec charged he

was the victim of a "palace coup" aimed at covering up

evidence of mismanagement of the bankrupt shipping company

Croatia Line (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 17 August 1999). PM

[25] DEMOCRATIC PARTY LEADER TO RUN FOR ROMANIAN PRESIDENCY

Party in Targu Mures that he will run for president in

2000, an RFE/RL correspondent in the Transylvanian town

reported. Roman, who is leader of the party, said the

Democrats will not participate in any election alliances

formed for the 2000 parliamentary elections, adding that

after the ballot they will agree to participate in a

government coalition only if it is set up on the basis of a

"clear joint program" and not for "the sake of power

alone." One day earlier, Roman said the Democrats are ready

for "a dialogue" with the opposition Party of Social

Democracy in Romania (PDSR), provided the PDSR "seriously

reforms its political philosophy." PDSR deputy chairwoman

Hildegard Puwak on 17 August responded that her party

welcomes a dialogue but rejects Roman's conditions. MS

[26] ROMANIA'S HUNGARIAN CHURCH TO SET UP PRIVATE UNIVERSITY

chairman Bishop Laszlo Tokes, addressing a forum of the Ady

Endre Academy in Debrecen, Hungary, on 16 August, said that

a Hungarian-language high school in Oradea will be

transformed in September into a private ecclesiastic

university for the Hungarian minority, Romanian Radio

reported the next day. Tokes said that in 2000 the new

university, to be called the Partium Christian University,

will set up branches "in all of Transylvania." MS

[27] MOLDOVAN COMMISSION RECOMMENDS CHANGING DESIGNATION OF

The Republican Commission overseeing the

implementation of the law on the official state language

has recommended that the official designation of that

language be changed from "Moldovan" to "Romanian," RFE/RL's

Chisinau bureau reported on 17 August. The recommendation

will be submitted to the government and later to the

parliament. The commission said that the 1994 decision to

opt for "Moldovan" was prompted by " political

considerations that ignored the opinion of experts from

Moldova and abroad." The mentioning of "Moldovan" in the

country's constitution must be changed accordingly, the

commission says. MS

[28] BULGARIA'S KOZLODUY REACTOR SHUT DOWN

aging nuclear power plant at Kozloduy was shut down on 16

August following a non-radioactive water leak, Reuters

reported. A spokeswoman for the plant said the leak did not

affect the plant's safety and that the unit will be shut

down until 27 August for repairs. MS

[C] END NOTE

[29] SERBIAN PROTESTS: WILL THIS TIME BE DIFFERENT?

The mass protest scheduled to take place on 19 August in

Belgrade will be the third in a series of demonstration waves

that the Serbian opposition has staged since the beginning of

this decade. On the two previous occasions--in 1991 and in

the winter of 1996-1997--ordinary Serbs took to the streets

to vent their frustrations with the miserable state of

affairs in their country.

But to date, each protest wave has fallen short, with

the opposition unable to achieve the crucial precondition for

setting Serbia's reform process in motion: Yugoslav President

Slobodan Milosevic's removal from power.

The earlier protest campaigns failed owing to a variety

of reasons, including a fragmented opposition, a passive,

exhausted Serbian population, deft political maneuvering by

Milosevic, and the manipulation of Serbs through tight

control over state-run media.

In addition, Milosevic has been the beneficiary of

short-sighted Western policies that have allowed him, among

other things, to convince his electorate that the West--and

the U.S. in particular--is the villain and Serbia the victim.

Thus while it is encouraging that the opposition is once

again working to muster an organized effort against the

status quo, its ability to effect a leadership change in

Belgrade is questionable.

In the two months since the cessation of hostilities

between Serbian forces and those of NATO and the Kosova

Liberation Army, there have been small, spontaneous pockets

of protests throughout Serbia. The round of demonstrations

scheduled to begin on 19 August will be the first broad,

organized effort to pressure the Milosevic regime since the

winter of 1996-1997.

At that time, tens of thousands of Serbs marched to

protest the annulment of the results of municipal elections

that Milosevic's Socialist Party had lost. While Milosevic's

extralegal action served as a catalyst for the

demonstrations, a host of other chronic problems in Serbian

society--including a very sick economy-- kept protesters on

the streets every day over three months. Ultimately,

Milosevic reversed the annulment but otherwise paid only lip

service to the key opposition demands for reform.

As was the case in the earlier rounds of protests, the

planned demonstrations starting this week will feature the

participation of two main opposition figures: Democratic

Party leader Zoran Djindjic and Vuk Draskovic, the

controversial head of the Serbian Reform Movement, who served

in Milosevic's government until his dismissal during the

conflict with NATO.

Both Djindjic and Draskovic are calling for a

transitional government but have not agreed on a blueprint

for achieving this goal. While Djindjic is seeking

Milosevic's unconditional departure from power, Draskovic has

indicated he prefers some sort of power-sharing arrangement

with the Yugoslav leader. Whether the two opposition leaders

will be able to work together to mount a successful challenge

to Milosevic and then orient Serbia's policies toward the

West is an open question.

The challenge for the opposition has always been

formidable, but post-Kosova politics in Serbia may make the

task even more difficult. During the two previous rounds of

major protest activity, the opposition was able to associate

itself with the values of the West, including calls for

deeper integration into and cooperation with Western

institutions. As a variation on the "divide and conquer

tactic" so often used by Milosevic, Serbian advocates of

cooperation with the West face the prospect of being branded

as "traitors against Serbia" or "lackeys for NATO."

Democratic Party leader Djindjic, who fled to Montenegro

during the Kosova conflict, is the best known of those

labeled an agent of Western interests.

As a result, proposing closer ties to the West as an

important part of any prospective reform program may not be a

winning message with many Serbs. The shift from pre-Kosova

discourse, in which it was normal to view the West as a

desired partner, to the more ambiguous post-Kosova climate,

raises questions about the direction Serbian politics will

take in the post-Milosevic era, whenever it arrives.

Other key institutions in Serbia have not made their

intentions fully clear with respect to the country's

leadership. The Serbian armed forces, considered by the rest

of the world to have suffered overwhelming losses during its

conflict with NATO, seem to have weathered the storm by

having resourcefully squirreled away much of their crucial

weaponry during the conflict. Despite some rumblings in the

immediate aftermath of the war, the military--a conservative

institution not easily disposed to changing the existing

order--has not made any bid to alter the current leadership.

The Serbian Orthodox Church, for its part, has sent

mixed signals. While it has decided not to take part in the

opposition-led demonstration this week, Church leaders have

publicly appealed for the resignation of Milosevic and

Serbian President Milan Milutinovic, both of whom are

indicted war criminals.

For Serbia--as well as the rest of the world--there is

no more to be learned or gained from Milosevic's leadership.

If 12 years ago someone had scripted a worst-case scenario

for his rule, it would have been difficult to imagine one as

tragic as today's reality.

The latest cycle of protest in Serbia will be viewed as

a success only if it achieves the goal of removing Milosevic,

thereby distinguishing itself from previous efforts.

The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in East

European affairs (intrel@aol.com).

18-08-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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