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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 161, 99-08-19Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 161, 19 August 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT COMMITTEE DISCUSSES PROPOSED BUDGET CUTSPrime Minister Vazgen Sargsian on 18 August urged theparliament's economic committee to endorse his proposed measures to overcome the 31 billion dram ($58 million) budget shortfall, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Those measures include tax hikes, cuts in "non-essential" expenditures in the social, education, and health sectors, and increased excise duties on gasoline and cigarettes (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 July 1999). At the same time, under pressure from the IMF and World Bank, the government must find 17 billion drams to compensate for consumers' unpaid debts to the energy sector. The parliament is expected to convene an emergency session on 23 August to discuss the proposed measures. LF [02] U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY VISITS AZERBAIJAN...Bill Richardsonheld talks with Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliev, Prime Minister Artur Rasi-zade and with Natik Aliev, president of the state oil company SOCAR, in Baku on 18 August, Turan reported. Richardson defined the purpose of his visit as strengthening and stabilizing bilateral relations, noting that the U.S. wants to cooperate with Azerbaijan on issues "going beyond the Caspian region." He reaffirmed Washington's support for the proposed Baku-Ceyhan oil export pipeline, adding that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan should also use that facility. Turkish and Azerbaijani government working groups are due to meet in Washington on 22-23 August with U.S. and international financial institutions in an attempt to finalize funding for that project, the estimated cost of which is at least $2.7 billion. The Azerbaijan International Operating Company, the largest international oil consortium operating in Azerbaijan, is reluctant to contribute to the Baku-Ceyhan project and would prefer to expand the existing export pipeline to Supsa on Georgia's Black Sea coast. LF [03] ...AND TURKMENISTANMeeting with Turkmen PresidentSaparmurat Niyazov on 19 August in Ashgabat, Richardson affirmed his support for the planned Trans-Caspian pipeline to transport Turkmenistan's natural gas to Turkey via Azerbaijan, RFE/RL's correspondent in the Turkmen capital reported. Noting that Shell has recently joined the consortium to build that pipeline as the upstream partner (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 August 1999), Richardson said that negotiations have begun on the financing and route of the pipeline. Richardson expressed the hope, as he had done the previous day in Baku, that the Trans-Caspian pipeline will promote cooperation, not rivalry, between the countries of the region. John Wolf, who is adviser on Caspian issues to the U.S. president and secretary of state, had said in Baku on 18 August that the Trans-Caspian pipeline is not intended as competition with Russia's "Blue Stream" project (see above). LF [04] AZERBAIJAN CREATES WORKING GROUP ON GAS EXPORTPresidentAliev has decreed the creation of a working group composed of senior Azerbaijani officials and representatives of international oil companies engaged in Azerbaijan to determine the choice of route for and the construction of gas pipelines to transport gas from the Shah Deniz offshore Caspian field to world markets, Turan reported on 18 August. The creation of such a group suggests that Azerbaijan will be able to use the planned Trans-Caspian pipeline to export only part of its gas. LF [05] GEORGIA SATISFIED WITH RUSSIAN APOLOGY FOR BOMBINGStateMinister Vazha Lortkipanidze told journalists in Tbilisi on 18 August that the Georgian leadership has no reason to doubt the sincerity of the official apology received earlier that day from Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov for the 9 August incident in which Russian planes dropped mines on the village of Zemo Omalo, close to the Georgian border with Daghestan, Interfax reported. Parliamentary speaker Zurab Zhvania similarly commented that Moscow's acknowledgment of responsibility indicates a desire for "new neighborly and civilized relations with Georgia," according to Caucasus Press. A bilateral commission will be established to estimate the extent of the damages caused by the bombing, in which four people were injured and several homes destroyed. Moscow has expressed its readiness to pay compensation for the damage. LF [06] KAZAKH OPPOSITION PARTY OUTLINES ELECTION PROGRAMMeeting inAlmaty on 18 August, the People's Republican Party of Kazakhstan selected 10 candidates to contest the part list seats in the 10 October election to the lower chamber of the parliament, RFE/RL's bureau in the former capital reported. Party chairman and former Premier Akezhan Kazhgeldin heads the list. Another 20 candidates will run in single-candidate constituencies, according to Interfax. Party Deputy Chairman Gazis Aldamzharov said the party believes that improvements in social and economic conditions will be possible only if the country's leadership structure is radically changed. He therefore advocated a referendum on amending the constitution in order to remove President Nursultan Nazarbaev from office. The powers of the government and parliament would then be strengthened at the expense of the president. Aldamzharov also said his party wants to annul the 1998 border agreement under which Kazakhstan ceded part of its territory to China. LF [07] HOSTAGE-TAKERS BELIEVED TO HAVE LEFT KYRGYZSTANAn anonymousOsh Oblast administration official told RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau on 18 August that the 21 guerrillas who held four Kyrgyz officials hostage in southern Kyrgyzstan earlier this month have probably already left the country. He said that Kyrgyz troops have combed the mountains where the guerrillas were entrenched but have failed to locate them. The Kyrgyz authorities have released no new information on the hunt for the guerrillas for two days. LF [08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT CHAIRS CABINET SESSIONSaparmurat Niyazovchaired a cabinet session to discuss agriculture and the development of the textile industry on 18 August, Interfax reported. The previous day, Niyazov was scheduled to undergo a medical checkup by the German cardiologist who performed heart bypass surgery on him two years ago. Also on 18 August, Niyazov announced that Turkmenistan will donate $100,000 to victims of the Turkish earthquake and is prepared to send a team of doctors to the devastated area, according to Interfax. LF [09] UZBEK COURT SENTENCES ANOTHER SIX IN CONNECTION WITH TASHKENTBOMBINGA provincial town court on 18 August handed down sentences ranging from eight to 15 years imprisonment on six men accused of participating in the 16 February bomb attacks in Tashkent, RFE/RL's bureau in the Uzbek capital reported. Two of the accused are brothers of Mohammed Solih, one of the leaders of the banned Erk opposition party, whom Uzbek President Islam Karimov has accused of masterminding the bomb attacks. Western journalists and diplomats and OSCE representatives were barred from the trial, but Reuters quoted an OSCE representative as saying that some of the accused pleaded guilty to charges of insulting the president and organizing criminal groups. Amnesty International and other human rights organizations had expressed concern that at least one of the defendants, prominent writer Mamadali Mahmudov, was systematically tortured during the pretrial investigation. Six men were sentenced to death in June for their alleged role in the bombings (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 June 1999). LF [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[10] KEY BOSNIAN TOWN TO REMAIN UNDER JOINT CONTROLInternationalmediators have decided that Brcko will remain permanently under the joint administration of the Republika Srpska and the mainly Muslim and Croatian federation, AP reported on 19 August. The decision makes permanent an interim ruling in March. The Serbs want to keep control of the town, which is a key transportation link between the eastern and western halves of the Republika Srpska. The Muslims and Croats also want access to Brcko's rail and river port facilities. The Muslims and Croats stress that they constituted the majority in the town before the 1992-1995 war and that to assign it to the Serbs would make permanent the results of wartime ethnic cleansing. Brcko was the one territorial issue so thorny that negotiators could not resolve it at the 1995 Dayton peace conference. PM [11] HIGH TURNOUT AT SERBIAN OPPOSITION RALLYSome 25,000 peopleattended a protest meeting in Nis against Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic on 18 August, Reuters reported. This was the largest turnout at any of the recent opposition rallies in Serbia. Zoran Zivkovic, who is the mayor of that city, told the crowd: "We cannot keep suffering any longer." Social Democratic leader Vuk Obradovic said unidentified persons tried to force his car off the road while he was en route to Nis. Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic appealed to those present to attend the major opposition rally slated for 19 August in Belgrade. He added that Kosovar Serb leaders Momcilo Trajkovic and Bishop Artemije will be there. The news agency reported that cheap gasoline and basic foodstuffs have "suddenly reappeared" in Nis after months of shortages. PM [12] U.S. CALLS ON SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO UNITEState Departmentspokesman James Rubin said in Washington on 18 August that "the more unified [the Serbian opposition] acts, the quicker the chances are that Milosevic will leave the scene, and the quicker therefore the chances are that the people of Yugoslavia and Serbia will be able to live the life they deserve to.... We are under the impression that the vast majority of the Serbian people believe that President Milosevic must go and that the time has come for him to go," Rubin added. Observers note that the Serbian opposition is highly fractious and that one of the key problems is personal rivalries between prominent leaders. PM [13] WARNINGS OF 'PROVOCATIONS' AT SERBIAN OPPOSITION RALLYNebojsa Covic, who heads the Democratic Alternative party,said in Belgrade on 18 August that the regime is preparing to stage "provocations and incidents" at the rally slated for the following day, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Elsewhere, a spokesman for Belgrade police said that police arrested an unidentified man "with a highly explosive device." The spokesman warned of possible bomb attacks at unspecified "mass public gatherings," AP reported. PM [14] SERBIAN REGIME TO OFFER EARLY ELECTIONS?Ivica Dacic, who isa spokesman for Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia, said in Belgrade on 18 August that the government is willing to hold early elections "if that's what the opposition wants." Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj added: "Whenever [the opposition] want, we can discuss the terms and the date" of the vote. It is unclear what offices would be voted on in the elections. A recent poll suggests that Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) would get 18 percent of the vote and the opposition umbrella group Alliance for Change 15 percent. Milosevic's backers would take 14 percent and Seselj's party 8 percent, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM [15] WHAT IS DRASKOVIC'S ROLE?A spokesman for Draskovic told theBBC on 19 August that a report by the private Beta news agency that Draskovic recently met with Milosevic to plan early elections is "a joke." Observers note that early elections would benefit Draskovic's party more than most other opposition groups, many of which are smaller and less well organized than the SPO. Early elections would also give Milosevic an opportunity to divide the opposition by playing the parties off against each other. And they would benefit the regime by distracting attention from opposition calls for Milosevic to resign. Most opposition parties insist that Milosevic must go before new elections can be held. The opposition also wants a new election law, fair access to the media for all parties, and a large-scale presence of foreign election monitors. PM [16] ANTI-MILOSEVIC CHANTS AT KEY SOCCER MATCHElectric floodlights went out for 45 minutes at a Belgrade stadium on 18 August during the Yugoslavia-Croatia match of the Euro 2000 qualifiers. Crowds began to chant "Slobo go" and "you sold out" Kosova. They also voiced anti-Croatian slogans, including "kill Ustashe," which is a Serbian pejorative for Croats. The BBC reported that the players were aware of the potentially politically explosive nature of the match between the sportsmen from the two rival countries "and played to an uninspired 0-0 draw." PM [17] VALJEVO PROTEST LEADER BADLY BEATENSerbia's HelsinkiCommittee for Human Rights said in a statement on 18 August that it is "deeply concerned" over the recent arrest and beating of Bogoljub Arsenijevic by Belgrade police (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 August 1999). Arsenijevic is in a prison hospital in Valjevo with a broken jaw and shoulder. PM [18] PESIC FLEES TO MONTENEGROVeteran Serbian opposition leaderVesna Pesic, who arrived in Podgorica on 18 August, said she wants to "remove [herself] from what is happening in Serbia." Pesic denied recent charges by several prominent Milosevic supporters and the Pancevo public prosecutor's office that she has called for the violent overthrow of the regime (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 August 1999). She added that she has largely withdrawn from active participation in politics in recent months. In Pancevo, a spokesman for the prosecutor's office said that he is not sure if that office will press charges against Pesic, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. If convicted, she could face up to 20 years in prison, AP noted. PM [19] NGOS SAY MILOSEVIC REGIME BLOCKS AID TO SERBIAN REFUGEESOfficials of Yugoslav Action, which includes theconfederation of independent trade unions and some 50 NGOs, said in Belgrade on 19 August that the authorities are preventing aid collected abroad from reaching Serbian refugees from Kosova. One spokeswoman said that the regime does this to force the refugees to go home. She noted that the authorities followed a similar policy in regard to Serbian refugees from Croatia. PM [20] UNHCR ESTIMATES THAT 180,000 SERBS HAVE LEFT KOSOVAUNHCRspokesman Ron Redmond told Reuters in Prishtina on 18 August that so far around 180,000 Serbs have fled Kosova. He added that attacks on those who remain are still commonplace. And he estimated that fewer than 50,000 Serbs have stayed in the province. "We have no intention of conducting any large-scale evacuations. Sometimes, however, we have little or no choice but to take some vulnerable individuals to safety and we will continue to do so when necessary," he said (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 August 1999). FS [21] ITALIAN PEACEKEEPERS WOUNDED WHILE GUARDING CHURCHUnidentified attackers shot and wounded two Italian soldiersguarding a Serbian Orthodox church building in Gjakova, a KFOR official told AP on 19 August. The previous day, KFOR soldiers seized 50 rifles and ammunition in two separate raids in Gjakova and Prizren. FS [22] UNMIK, KFOR URGE ALBANIANS TO COOPERATEUN SpecialRepresentative Bernard Kouchner and KFOR commander General Sir Mike Jackson issued a joint statement on 18 August in Prishtina calling on ethnic Albanians to cooperate with the peacekeepers and the civilian UN Mission in Kosova (UNMIK). The statement condemned "the illegal and threatening activities that have been taking place," referring to crimes committed by ethnic Albanian thugs against ethnic minorities. It stressed that "we will...only succeed in generating a secure environment with the full cooperation of the local population." Jackson and Kouchner expressed understanding for the fear of many Kosovar Serbs and Roma. The two men stressed: "We are dealing with the situation.... We are providing extensive protection for Serb and other minority communities and individuals." FS [23] ALBANIA, CROATIA PLEDGE TO INCREASE COOPERATIONCroatianForeign Minister Mate Granic and his Albanian counterpart, Paskal Milo, agreed in Tirana on 18 August to increase bilateral cooperation in the fields of agriculture, transport, telecommunications, tourism, and education, an RFE/RL South Slavic Service correspondent reported. Albanian Prime Minister Pandeli Majko also met with Granic and proposed a meeting between the two countries' leaders and those of Montenegro to draw up joint projects within the framework of the Balkan stability pact. FS [24] BELGRADE RECRUITING 'FEDERAL POLICE' IN MONTENEGROUnidentified people sought to recruit Montenegrins in BijeloPolje for an unspecified Yugoslav "federal police force," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 18 August. The new recruits are almost all supporters of Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic, who is Milosevic's chief backer in Montenegro. Observers note that police functions are a republican and not a federal prerogative. The Montenegrin police are generally loyal to President Milo Djukanovic, who is Bulatovic's arch-rival. PM [25] ROMANIA, RUSSIA AGREE ON DEBT SETTLEMENTReturning fromMoscow on 18 August, Finance Ministry State Secretary Gheorghe Banu said he and his Russian counterpart, Alexei Kutrin, have signed an agreement on settling Russia's $21.7 million debt to Romania, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Under the agreement, Russia will deliver machinery by 31 December 2000. Banu noted, however, that no agreement has been reached on the dispute concerning Romanian investments in Ukraine's Kryvyy Rih mineral extraction complex. Bucharest says it invested some 93.4 million transferable rubles before the breakup of the former Soviet Union. The Russian side insists on tripartite negotiations involving Ukraine. According to Banu, a trilateral meeting might take place by the end of next month. MS [26] ROMANIAN NATIONALIST PARTY TO SUE PRESIDENTParty ofRomanian National Unity (PUNR) chairman Valeriu Tabara said on 18 August that his formation will sue President Emil Constantinescu for calumny, Mediafax reported. Tabara was responding to Constantinescu's interview with CNN earlier this month, in which he said "extremist parties" such as the PUNR are unlikely to pass the electoral hurdle in the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2000. Tabara said he expects the PUNR to win at least 10 percent in those elections. He also announced he accepts his party's nomination as its presidential candidate in the 2000 ballot. MS [27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT APPEALS TO CONSTITUTIONAL COURTPresident Petru Lucinschi has asked the ConstitutionalCourt to rule that the parliament's 2 July decision to amend the election law was unconstitutional, Infotag reported on 18 August. Under the amendment, the president's right to call a referendum was curtailed to three times during his four-year mandate. Lucinschi is also challenging the provision that the parliament must approve holding a plebiscite and that the Central Electoral commission must declare a plebiscite invalid if less than three-fifths of registered voters participate. MS [28] GERMANY EXTRADITES BULGARIAN AIRLINE OFFICIALVesselinKalaydzhiev, manager of the Balkan Airlines Berlin office, has been extradited from Germany at the request of the Bulgarian Prosecutor-General's office, BTA reported on 17 August. Kalaydzhiev has been charged with embezzlement and use of falsified documents. MS [C] END NOTE[29] WHO GETS WHAT, WHEN, AND HOWBy Michael ShafirWhen voters in a Prague electoral district go to the polls later this month to elect a replacement for the late Vaclav Benda, a lot more will be at stake than just another by-election. Benda represented the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) in the upper house. Should the mandate go to one of the minor parties represented in the house, the ODS and the Social Democratic Party (CSSD) may be unable to secure the constitutional changes they agreed to pursue when they concluded the so-called "opposition pact," whereby the minority cabinet of the CSSD rules in exchange for the ODS's control over the chairmanships of the two parliamentary houses. To ensure passage of the constitutional amendments, a three-fifths majority is required in each house. The combined CSSD-ODS forces command that majority in the Chamber of Deputies (137 out of 200 deputies), but should Benda's mandate be lost to any formation outside the "opposition pact," the CSSD-ODS will not have the 49 (out of 81) senatorial votes necessary to implement those changes. Safeguarding Benda's seat, however, is only the first hurdle that the two political rivals-turned-partners have to overcome. A considerably higher hurdle is agreeing on the scope of those constitutional changes. The first objective is to limit the presidential prerogatives, making it impossible for Vaclav Havel or any of his successors to repeat the 1997 appointment of a non-party figure as premier. Rather, the president would be obliged to appoint as premier the head of the strongest party that can garner a parliamentary majority. But while Prime Minister Milos Zeman and ODS chairman Vaclav Klaus still see eye to eye on this goal--as well as on curtailing other presidential prerogatives--they have disagreed over the second objective, namely reducing the parliamentary representation of smaller political formations. A joint commission of the two parties set up after the 1998 elections has been unable to come up with a formula satisfying both sides, and a new commission embarked upon that task earlier this month. The ODS and the CSSD are determined to change the existing Hagen-Bischoff system of the proportional distribution of seats, which is one of the systems more friendly toward small parties, though not the friendliest. The ODS wanted to introduce a majority system, but in the face of CSSD opposition, it agreed to maintain the proportional system. To reduce the parliamentary weight of minor parties, the CSSD and the ODS agreed to implement what political scientists call "reducing district magnitude"--in other words, increasing the number of electoral districts while cutting the number of representatives elected from each of these districts. That change would obviously put larger parties at an advantage. While it has been agreed that 35-36 districts are to replace the existing eight, disagreement emerged over the system to replace the Hagen-Bischoff one, as well as over when the change would go into effect. The ODS wants the Hagen-Bischoff formula replaced by the "Imperial system." The latter is rarely encountered in post- World War II democracies--for a very good reason: the system gives a kind of bonus to the large parties, producing parliamentary majorities where they do not exist in the electorate. Of all systems, the Imperial most resembles what Douglas W. Rae termed the "manufactured majority." Moreover, the system encourages political corruption, as the case of pre-1938 Romania demonstrates. In that country, as one observer put it, it was not electorates that changed governments, but governments that changed electorates. Why the ODS would prefer that system is obvious: while enjoying around 30 percent of support at present, the ODS would benefit under an Imperial system in that it would not only be the strongest party in the parliament but, given the bonus, would be sufficiently strong to form a government by itself. Precisely for this reason, the CSSD--aware that its popularity is at low ebb and that its chances of emerging as the strongest formation in the next elections are slim--would prefer to replace the Hagen-Bischoff system with the d'Hondt system of proportional distribution. Considerably more widespread than the Imperial, the d'Hondt favors larger parties but distorts electoral support less than does the Imperial and provides for the reduced representation of small parties. Czech political scientist Rudolf Kucera calculated that under the d'Hondt system, the CSSD last year would have gained 90 (instead of 74) mandates in the Chamber of Deputies and the ODS 74 (instead of 63). The small Christian Democratic Party and the Freedom Union would have had 10 (instead of 20) and five (instead of 19) mandates, respectively. In other words, even if the CSSD does not emerge as the strongest party in 2002, it could still hope to form a coalition with one of the minor parties. The disagreement over the timing of implementing the change of system again reflects opposing calculations. The ODS wants the new election law, which necessitates amending the constitution, to go into effect one year after its approval. The CSSD, on the other hand, fears that this would terminate the "opposition agreement" and the ODS would opt for early elections. It therefore wants the changed electoral law to become effective only as of 1 January 2002. That is hardly surprising, particularly when one bears in mind Harold Laswell's definition of politics as "who gets what, when, and how." 19-08-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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