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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 159, 99-08-17Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 159, 17 August 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ROW OVER AZERBAIJAN'S MUNICIPAL ELECTION LAW CONTINUESAt ameeting in Baku on 16 August, members of Azerbaijan's Central Electoral Commission said that the amendments to the law on municipal elections proposed by the U.S. National Democratic Institute and the Azerbaijani opposition Movement for Electoral Reform and Democratic Elections (MERDE) constitute "a premeditated insult" and interference into the country's internal affairs, Turan reported. They also condemned accusations that commission chairman Djafar Veliev is ready to falsify the results of the poll. Veliev presided over the parliamentary elections in November 1995 and the October 1998 presidential poll, both of which were described by international observers as undemocratic and marred by widespread fraud. Meanwhile, two opposition representatives of MERDE told Turan on 16 August that they do not regard presidential administration official Ali Hasanov's criticism of the proposed amendments as valid (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 August 1999). LF [02] TYPHOID OUTBREAK IN AZERBAIJANI ARMYAzerbaijan's DefenseMinistry reported on 16 August that two servicemen died of typhoid on 4 August and another 100 are suffering from the disease, Interfax reported. Turan on 16 August cited "Yeni Musavat" as reporting that the victims were serving at the Geranboy and Gilazi military camps and that a quarantine has been imposed. LF [03] GEORGIAN OFFICIAL SAYS DAGHESTAN FIGHTING COULD DELAY POPE'SVISITA spokeswoman for the Georgian Orthodox Church told Reuters in Tbilisi on 16 August that it may be appropriate to delay Pope John Paul II's trip to Georgia until 2001 because of the unstable situation resulting from the fighting in Daghestan. Vatican envoy Giovanni Battista Re announced in Tbilisi on 15 August after talks with Georgian Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili and the head of the Georgian Orthodox church, Catholicos Ilia II, that the pontiff will visit Georgia at an unspecified date this fall (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 August 1999). Caucasus Press on 13 August cited "Dilis gazeti" as reporting that members of the Islamic Shura of Daghestan, which last week proclaimed an independent Islamic republic, have sent an e-mail to Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze assuring him of their desire to establish friendly relations with Georgia once they take power in Daghestan. LF [04] KAZAKH ELECTION OFFICIAL CASTS DOUBT ON FORMER PREMIER'SELIGIBILITY...Zaghipa Balieva told journalists in Almaty on 16 August that former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin may not, after all, be eligible to contend the 10 October elections to Kazakhstan's lower chamber of parliament, Interfax reported. Balieva had said at a press conference last week that the administrative offense Kazhegeldin committed in 1998 by participating in an unregistered public movement does not constitute an impediment to him taking part in the October ballot (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 August 1999). But on 16 August Balieva said that she was unaware that Kazhegeldin had also been found guilty of contempt of court. LF [05] ...AS DEADLINE PASSES FOR REGISTRATION OF CANDIDATES TOSENATEBalieva also said on 16 August that a total of 33 candidates have registered to contend the 16 seats in the upper chamber of parliament, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported. She said that the OSCE has prepared special television programming to inform the electorate about the ballot. Also on 16 August, Petr Svoik, one of the leaders of the opposition Azamat Party, was refused registration in an Almaty district as a candidate for a lower house seat. The next day, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported that for the first time in Kazakhstan, new computer technology will be used to record the identity of every citizen who casts a vote and thus preclude multiple voting during the upcoming parliamentary elections. LF [06] KAZAKH JOURNALIST FOUND DEADArmial Tasymbekov was founddead in his apartment in Almaty last weekend, his relatives told RFE/RL's bureau in the former capital on 17 August. No further details of the circumstances of his death are available. Tasymbekov was briefly incarcerated in a psychiatric hospital earlier this year on suspicion of involvement in daubing slogans on buildings in Astana that denigrated President Nursultan Nazarbaev and extolled former Prime Minister Kazhegeldin (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 and 6 May 1999). LF [07] BP REVERSES DECISION TO QUIT KAZAKH OIL PROJECTBP Amoco hasgone back on its decision to sell its 9.5 percent stake in the Offshore Kazakhstan International Operating Company (OKIOC) for an asking price of $440 million, Interfax reported on 16 August, quoting an unnamed OKIOC official. BP had announced in July that it planned to sell its share in the consortium, regardless of whether the first test well yielded hydrocarbons (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 July 1999). On 13 August, ITAR-TASS reported that Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Nurlan Balghymbaev had set in motion the drilling machine to bore OKIOC's first offshore test well. LF [08] KAZAKHSTAN MAY SOON DECIDE ON SECOND OIL EXPORT PIPELINESpeaking at a news conference in Atyrau after the OKIOCceremony, Balghymbaev said the choice of a second Caspian export pipeline (in addition to the one from Tengiz to Novorossiisk, which is scheduled to go into operation in mid- 2001) will be contingent on the results of the test well, which, he said, should be available in three to four months, Interfax reported. Balghymbaev hinted that the route via Turkmenistan to Iran is the most likely option, noting that the feasibility study for the alternative pipeline to China will not be completed for another two months. LF [09] KYRGYZSTAN ADMITS RANSOMING HOSTAGESMinistry of NationalSecurity spokesman Talant Razzakov told an RFE/RL correspondent in Bishkek on 16 August that the Kyrgyz authorities paid $50,000 in cash to obtain the 13 August release of four local guerrillas from Uzbekistan took hostage one week earlier in the southern district of Batken (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 and 16 August 1999). The kidnappers had originally demanded a $1 million payment. Razzakov also said that Defense Ministry forces have begun a military operation with the aim of neutralizing the guerrillas. Razzakov confirmed that Uzbek planes bombed some mountainous areas in Batken on 15 August as well as Tajikistan's neighboring Djirgatal district in an attempt to hit the guerillas. He did not elaborate. According to "Vechernii Bishkek" of 16 August, the Uzbek bombing raid was coordinated with the Kyrgyz leadership. LF [10] DATE SET FOR KYRGYZSTAN'S LOCAL ELECTIONSCentral ElectoralCommission chairman Sulaiman Imanbaev announced in Bishkek on 16 August that President Askar Akayev has signed a decree scheduling local elections for 17 October, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. LF [11] UZBEKISTAN DENIES ITS PLANES BOMBED TAJIK TERRITORYTajikistan's Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov on 16 Augustlodged an official complaint with Uzbekistan's ambassador in Dushanbe, Bakhtiar Urdashev, following an incident the previous day in which four jets approaching from Kyrgyz airspace dropped eight bombs on Tajikistan's Djirgatal district, Russian agencies reported. Buildings were destroyed and some 100 sheep and cattle killed, but there were no human casualties. Djirgatal is close to the border with Kyrgyzstan's Osh Oblast, where guerrillas from Tajikistan, some of them reportedly ethnic Uzbeks, took four Kyrgyz officials hostage last week (see above). The Uzbek Foreign Ministry denied any knowledge of the bombing. LF [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[12] TWO SERBS KILLED IN MORTAR ATTACKUnknown persons fired ninemortar shells at the village of Klokot in the U.S. sector of Kosova on 16 August. Two Serbian teenagers were killed and five other Serbs wounded. It was one of the most serious incidents of apparently ethnically motivated violence since the fighting ended in June, AP reported. In a separate incident, unknown persons shot and wounded an ethnic Albanian boy in Petrovce, which is also in the U.S. sector. PM [13] PLIGHT OF KOSOVAR SERBS WORSENSUNHCR special envoy DennisMcNamara told BBC Television on 16 August that the UNHCR recently helped an unspecified number of Serbs to leave Kosova. He added that Serbs are increasingly faced with the danger of revenge attacks by ethnic Albanians and that the "pressures [on Serbs] seem to be mounting on a daily basis." His agency may evacuate more Serbs soon, McNamara noted, pointing out that it is not the policy of the UNHCR to encourage people to leave but rather to assist them if they choose to do so. He said that some people who had wanted to be evacuated but whom his agency did not evacuate subsequently lost their lives. On 17 August, Reuters reported that in Prishtina, armed ethnic Albanians locked an elderly Serbian woman in her kitchen and robbed, beat, and attempted to rape her daughter-in-law. The women and their Serbian neighbors later fled for safety. British peacekeepers said it was the third such incident in 24 hours. PM [14] MILOSEVIC DEMANDS RETURN OF SERBIAN TROOPS TO KOSOVAYugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic said in a statement on16 August that KFOR has "tolerated the rampage of bandit groups" in Kosova. He added that "the gravest crimes against Serbs have been committed [as well as] the ethnic cleansing of non-Albanians" since Serbian forces left under the terms of the June peace agreement. Milosevic demanded that KFOR speed up the disarmament of Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) fighters and expel "hordes of criminals and robbers" who have recently arrived from Albania. He also repeated the recent call by several other top Serbian officials that the UN allow Serbian forces to return to the province (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 August 1999). PM [15] SERBIAN RAILWAY MEN RETURN TO WORKSome 200 ethnic Serbianrailway workers in Fushe Kosova returned to work on 16 August. A UN spokesman told BBC Television that the men's experience will be a big help in arranging for the efficient transportation of supplies for the coming winter. The men will not work with their ethnic Albanian former colleagues. PM [16] KOUCHNER SUSPENDS 'APARTHEID' LAWS...UN spokeswomanNadia Younes told an RFE/RL South Slavic Service correspondent in Prishtina on 16 August that UN Special Representative Bernard Kouchner has suspended "apartheid" legislation discriminating against individuals on ethnic or religious grounds. Kouchner issued the ruling at a 15 August meeting with some 50 judges and prosecutors from throughout Kosova. He also appointed a 19-member working group, co-chaired by the ethnic Albanian Professor of Law Blerim Reka and UN legal experts, to review the existing laws. One of those laws likely to be abolished is that prohibiting Albanians from buying real estate from Serbs. FS [17] ...AFTER CRITICISM FROM KOSOVAR JUDGESReka told anRFE/RL South Slavic Service correspondent on 16 August that Kouchner suspended the discriminatory laws after several ethnic Albanian judges had criticized them. The professor noted that "there is confusion about which laws will be applied in Kosova," pointing out that "the first decree that Bernard Kouchner signed says explicitly that those laws will be used in Kosova that were in force until 24 March of this year. These were the laws of the Yugoslav occupiers." Reka added that most ethnic Albanians believe that "one cannot apply the laws of a regime that committed genocide on the territory of and toward the people who were the victims of that genocide." FS [18] SERBS, ALBANIANS NEGOTIATE COMPROMISE IN MITROVICA...Bajram Rexhepi, who is the UCK-appointed mayor ofMitrovica, asked a group of ethnic Albanian protesters there on 16 August to disperse peacefully. He told them that Serbian and Albanian representatives found a compromise earlier that day--under UN mediation--to allow the return of ethnic Albanian displaced persons to the northern, Serb-dominated part of town. Rexhepi told an RFE/RL South Slavic Service correspondent that "according to the agreement, 25 families will return to their homes in the north every day. It also provides for free access by students to the metallurgic faculty in the north.... We also agreed on the creation of a joint board of directors for the Trepca mines." FS [19] ...BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER IMPLEMENTATIONRexhepi addedthat "we will try to implement that agreement in the coming days. If it brings concrete results it is fine, but if not the population will try to find other ways to end the [partition] of the city." An unidentified Western official, however, told Reuters that neither side has signed any agreement. He suggested that Rexhepi is misrepresenting the state of affairs by presenting his side's bargaining points as a done deal. FS [20] SHPAK SAYS UCK DEMILITARIZATION BEHIND SCHEDULEColonel-General Georgii Shpak, who is commander of the Russian paratrooper units, told Interfax on 16 August that the UCK is behind schedule with its demilitarization plan. He added that unidentified attackers have "often" fired shots near Russian checkpoints, but he added that there have been no direct attacks on the paratroopers. FS [21] SERBIA'S DINKIC CALLS DEMO 'LAST CHANCE FOR PEACEFULCHANGE'...Mladjan Dinkic of the G-17 group of independent economists told Vienna's "Die Presse" of 16 August that the opposition demonstration slated for 19 August in Belgrade will prove decisive for Serbia's political future. He called it "the last chance for a peaceful transition of power and the last chance for the opposition to unite." He stressed that Milosevic must leave office before winter sets in. The alternative could be a violent revolution on the model of Romania in 1989, Dinkic warned. He expressed understanding that Serbian Orthodox Patriarch Pavle will not take part in the demonstration. Dinkic noted that Pavle must represent all Serbs, "including those on the other side." The opposition leader added, however, that many clerics will march in the protest and that the Orthodox Church has called for Milosevic to go. PM [22] ...OUTLINES PROGRAM FOR SERBIA'S FUTUREDinkic also told"Die Presse" of 16 August that the G-17's "Stability Pact for Serbia" calls for a one-year transitional government to organize free and fair elections and to draft plans for economic reform (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 July 1999). Dinkic stressed that Serbia must quickly reach a "reasonable understanding" with Montenegro over the future of their relationship. He noted that Serbia also must join the international stabilization project for southeastern Europe and make its markets attractive for foreign investors. If Milosevic does not step down or is not overthrown soon, Serbia is likely to "remain a black hole in Europe for the next 10 years," Dinkic warned. PM [23] CONFUSION PERSISTS OVER BELGRADE RALLY'S LIST OFPARTICIPANTSDinkic did not mention that generals-turned- politicians Vuk Obradovic and Momcilo Perisic do not plan to attend the demonstration. Kosovar Serb leader Momcilo Trajkovic, moreover, said that no one from the opposition has invited him or anyone from his Serbian Resistance Movement, "Danas" reported on 16 August. Alliance for Change leader Vladan Batic told Reuters that his group will attend the rally, but "we don't know who else will turn up." The main problem involves the sequence and number of speakers. The clash of egos among opposition leaders has long been the major obstacle to unity within the opposition. PM [24] LEADING BUSINESSMAN LEAVES MILOSEVIC GOVERNMENTBogoljubKaric has resigned his position as minister-without-portfolio in the Serbian government, AP reported on 16 August. Karic said that his "government obligations have inflicted severe damage to my business." He is one of 308 top Yugoslav officials whom Western countries have withheld visas. PM [25] UP TO $1 BILLION LOST IN BOSNIAN FRAUD"The New York Times"of 17 August reported that U.S.-led anti-fraud investigators have found that Muslim, Serbian, and Croatian nationalist leaders have stolen up to $1 billion from public funds or international aid projects since the Dayton peace agreement was signed in 1995. The report, which exceeds 400 pages and was compiled for the office of the international community's high representative, details widespread corruption. In one incident, a Bosnian bank "lost" $20 million belonging to 10 foreign embassies or aid agencies. In Tuzla, $200 million "disappeared" from the 1999 budget. Tuzla officials had the local schools painted four times in 1998, at a cost several times the going-rate, even though international aid organizations also had them rebuilt and painted. The schools have no heating. Few corrupt officials have ever been brought to justice, the report added. Observers note that Bosnia requires massive investments and a vigorous expansion of the private sector to combat rampant unemployment and poverty. PM [26] CROATIAN OPPOSTION COALITION TOTTERSOfficials of theopposition Istrian Democratic League and the Liberal Party said in Rovinj on 16 August that their parties do not approve of the recent "strategic alliance" struck between the Social Democrats and Social Liberals. In Zagreb, an official of the People's Party said that the emergence of the two-member alliance threatens to destroy the six-party electoral coalition that seeks to win a majority in the parliamentary elections due by the end of 1999. The Social Democrats and Social Liberals are the two largest parties within the six- member coalition. Opinion polls suggest that the coalition seems likely to defeat the governing Croatian Democratic Community. PM [27] ROMANIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY SENDS 'MESSAGE TO TRANSYLVANIA'Democratic Party leader Petre Roman revealed in Targu Mureson 16 August his party's "Message to Transylvania," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Roman said that his party does not want the Romanian majority to "merely coexist" with the Hungarian minority because "coexistence [means] separate development." The Democrats, Roman said, want the region to build on its historical traditions and spearhead cooperation among all Romanians on the country's progress toward integration into European structures. Addressing the region's Hungarian ethnic minority, Roman said "we respect and back your fidelity toward your national cultural values and we expect to receive from you a political pledge of fidelity toward the Romanian national unitary state." MS [28] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER PROTESTS FRENCH-SWISS TVPRODUCTIONParty of Social Democracy in Romania leader Ion Iliescu, in an open letter addressed to Romanian political leaders and journalists, demanded that a protest be launched against the French television channel TV 5's showing of what he called "a profoundly anti-Romanian" movie, Romanian media report. The movie, which was aired on 12-13 August, depicts the ordeals of an ethnic Hungarian who returns to Romania after 1989 and finds out that his brother has been killed by the Ceausescu secret police. Iliescu said that the film is based on "falsehood and myth, ignorance of historical reality [and] fabricated lies." A spokesman for the channel told AFP that the movie was "fiction, which by definition cannot be guided by the same criteria of objectivity as a report." MS [29] MENINGITIS EPIDEMIC SPREADS TO MOLDOVAN CAPITALThemeningitis epidemic has spread from Romania--where more than 2,000 cases have been recorded so far--to Chisinau, Infotag reported on 16 August, citing an official from the National Center of Preventive Medicine. The official told the agency that 67 cases were registered in July and another 67 in the first 10 days of this month. He said no information is available on the spread of the disease to other parts of Moldova. MS [30] BULGARIA TO DEMOLISH DIMITROV MAUSOLEUMA spokeswoman forthe Ministry of Construction said on 16 August that the Georgi Dimitrov mausoleum will be demolished by 8 September because "experts agree that it does not match Sofia's overall architectural image," Reuters reported. Dimitrov's body was removed from the mausoleum and cremated in 1990. The opposition Socialist Party said that the decision is "politically motivated" and linked to the October local elections. It added that it wants the building to be turned into a memorial for Bulgarian soldiers. MS [31] BULGARIAN EURO-LEFT NOMINATES CANDIDATE IN SOFIA MAYORELECTIONSNikolai Kamov of the Euro-Left Party will run for the Sofia mayoralty in the fall local elections. Kamov's candidacy has also been endorsed by the Bulgarian Social Democratic Party (BSDP) and the United Labor Bloc, BSDP honorary chairman Petar Dertliev told BTA on 13 August. Kamov was originally expected to be the candidate of the entire leftist opposition, but the Bulgarian Socialist Party has nominated former minister Rumen Ovcharov to run for the post. MS [C] END NOTE[32] ONE YEAR AFTER THE MELTDOWN: FEARS WANE, SHADOW LINGERSBy Floriana FossatoMany analysts assessing the state of the Russian economy one year after the August 1998 financial meltdown note that their worst fears have not come true. Some even feel that it was a healthy development for Russia. Former Economics Minister Yevgenii Yasin, for example, recently told RFE/RL that last August's meltdown was a "moment of truth" for Russia. "We found out that it is impossible to live on debts and impossible to live with an inflated ruble exchange rate," he said. "The market has brought everything back to normal. Now we stand on a more realistic footing. We can like it or not, but it is better to dance to this music than to live on illusions." A year ago today, the government of then Prime Minister Sergei Kirienko in effect devalued the ruble and defaulted on some domestic debt. Within three weeks, the ruble plummeted from six to 16 to the dollar, banks refused to return clients their savings, most business activities suffered huge losses, and foreign investment dried up. As a result, many people lost their jobs, and most of those who managed to keep them saw their salaries reduced or delayed. When the crisis peaked last summer, Russians emptied shop shelves and started stocking up on goods, preparing for the worst. They once again showed their endless capacity for enduring cataclysms. And, significantly, there was no major social unrest. A new left-leaning government led by Yevgenii Primakov talked much about implementing measures that could have led to hyperinflation. But in the end it avoided a full economic crash by enforcing a policy that some observers called "positive inaction." As a result, the ruble continued its fall, but finally found firmer ground at a rate of about 24 to the dollar. Following the ruble devaluation, imports fell drastically--by 46 percent in the first half of this year-- helping boost domestic production. Demand has increased for a wide range of domestically produced goods, which now are cheaper owing to the devaluation. Those goods range from food products to construction materials. Another reason for Russia's improving trade balance is the upward trend of world prices for oil and other raw materials. A barrel of Russian oil was worth only 8.58 dollars in February, but the price had risen to 19.34 dollars by July. Yasin, however, notes that the current positive trend had a high price and that currently Russians are poorer than a year ago. "The positive trends we notice now in industry and in several other sectors--the increase in exports, the [domestic] production growth to replace imports, the improved budget situation--has been paid for by the people. The population's standard of living has decreased by 25 to 30 percent." Official figures released in July say that the number of Russians living in poverty increased from 33 million last year to 55 million this year. This means that nearly four out of every 10 people live below the official subsistence level, defined as a monthly income not exceeding 829 rubles (some $34). The average monthly wage now equals about $50, having fallen from some $200 before last August. The average pension now equals only about $17 a month. Some economic analysts argue that government policies have contributed little to the current positive trends. Denis Rodionov, an analyst with Brunswick Warburg, told RFE/RL that "deeper reforms--structural and institutional--are still not there." He said that the main policy needs continue to be the reform of monopolies, the introduction of bankruptcy legislation, the reduction of barter practices, the improvement of tax collection, and the restructuring of the banking system. Others argue that another huge problem is persisting corruption and the inefficiency of both the authorities and state and private businesses. The government and central bank program outlining economic policy for this year states that the Russian authorities are committed to further structural reform. The program was submitted to the IMF ahead of the fund's long- awaited decision late last month to issue $4.5 billion in new loans over the next 18 months. The money is intended to help refinance previous loans that are coming due. The IMF decision has been of critical importance for Russia. Not only has it unlocked additional funds from the World Bank and Japan's Eximbank. It has also made possible an agreement with the Paris Club of foreign debtors on postponing payment of some Soviet-era debts. But the IMF's new loan was accompanied by unusually strong words from fund officials. Citing an audit that found Russia's central bank had falsified the size of its reserves in 1996 by secretly channeling funds through the offshore company FIMACO, the IMF's first deputy managing director, Stanley Fischer, said the fund has "made clear to the highest levels of Russian government" that what happened was "unacceptable". Peter Westin, an economist at the Moscow-based European Center for Economic Policy, wrote recently in the English- language "Moscow Times" that the IMF decision "was mainly political." He said it "reconfirms the suspicion that creditors view Russia as too big to fail." One year after the meltdown, most analysts seem to agree that the shadow of August 1998 lingers. The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Moscow. 17-08-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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