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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 78, 01-04-23Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 78, 23 April 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN ENERGY NETWORK PRIVATIZATION FAILSThe two-year process of privatizing four Armenian state-owned energy distribution networks ended in failure on 21 April when neither of the two foreign companies still participating in the tender submitted a bid, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Neither of the two companies, Spain's Union Fenosa and the U.S. AES Silk Road, offered an explanation as to why they had pulled out of the tender. Two other international companies, selected last year from a total of 15, withdrew earlier from the bidding. Announcement of the results of the tender have been repeatedly postponed, while left-wing opposition groups in recent months launched an energetic campaign to prevent the sell-off (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 March 2001). Energy Minister Karen Galustian admitted to journalists on 21 April that those protests were one of the factors that had deterred potential Western investors. It is not clear how the collapse of the bidding will affect Armenia's relations with the World Bank, which had pegged the release of a key loan worth some $50 million to the successful completion of the sell- off (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 February 2001). LF[02] ARMENIAN MAJORITY COALITION MAINTAINS COHESIONPrime Minister Andranik Markarian on 21 April again rejected renewed media speculation that his Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) is considering ending its alliance with its partner in the majority Miasnutiun parliament bloc, the People's Party of Armenia (HZhK), RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Following the defection in February of a number of its most prominent members (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 February 2001), the HHK currently has only 25 deputies in the 131-seat legislature. LF[03] ANOTHER SPLINTER GROUP LEAVES ARMENIAN OPPOSITION PARTYArshak Sadoyan, hitherto a leading member of the center-right opposition National Democratic Union (AZhM), told journalists in Yerevan on 20 April that he and his supporters will quit the AZhM later this month to establish a new political party, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. He said the aim of this new party will be to bring about a "radical change" in the present division of powers to reduce the powers of the president. Another of the AZhM's leading members, Shavarsh Kocharian, left the party following its most recent congress in February to found a new National Democratic Party (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 February 2001). Sadoyan said at that juncture that he would not quit the AZhM in order not to weaken it any further. LF[04] AZERBAIJANI POLICE DISPERSE OPPOSITION PROTESTPolice in Baku forcibly dispersed an unsanctioned rally on 21 April by a few hundred supporters of Democratic Party of Azerbaijan Chairman Rasul Guliev, Reuters and Turan reported. The participants called for the release of political prisoners. Some 20 participants in the protest were detained. A police spokesman said 17 police were injured in clashes with demonstrators, and five required hospital treatment. LF[05] GEORGIA TO RESTORE POST OF PREMIERA closed session of the board of the majority Union of Citizens of Georgia (SMK) parliament faction on 20 April agreed that fundamental changes should be made to the country's constitution to amend the balance of power between the president, the legislature, and the executive, Caucasus Press reported. Those changes will include reintroducing the post of premier, which was abolished in 1995. At present the cabinet is headed by the president. In his traditional weekly radio address, President Eduard Shevardnadze said on 23 April that the upgraded government will have "broad authorities and wide responsibilities," he said. The parliament will acquire the right to propose a no-confidence vote in the government, and the president will be empowered to dissolve parliament. LF[06] ABKHAZ DEMONSTRATE FOR RELEASE OF HOSTAGESThousands of Abkhaz participated in demonstrations in the towns of Gulripshi, Ochamchira and Tkvarcheli last week to protest the abduction by Georgian guerrillas of five conscripts, Caucasus Press reported on 20 April. Also on 20 April, UN special envoy for the Abkhaz conflict Dieter Boden met in Sukhum with Abkhaz Premier Vyacheslav Tsugba and Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba to discuss the hostage crisis. The Tbilisi-based Abkhaz Security Ministry in exile claimed the same day that Abkhaz fighters snatched three more Georgians in Gali Raion on 19 April, bringing the total number of Georgians held in Abkhazia to 11. The ministry also claimed that the Abkhaz security forces have deployed an additional 100 police in Gali. Neither of those reports has been independently confirmed. LF[07] GEORGIAN OFFICIAL LAUDS EUROPEAN INPUT IN RECONSTRUCTION IN SOUTH OSSETIAIrakli Machavariani, who heads the joint Georgian-South Ossetian commission on resolving the South Ossetian conflict, expressed appreciation on 22 April for the European Commission's willingness to help fund a program for restoration of the South Ossetian economy, ITAR-TASS reported (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 4, No. 4, 25 January 2001). On 20 April, the EU released a statement in Brussels condemning as "not helpful" the referendum conducted on 8 April on amendments to the constitution of the unrecognized breakaway Republic of South Ossetia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 April 2001). LF[08] RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARY VISITS GEORGIAVisiting Georgia on 20-21 April, Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo discussed with his Georgian counterpart Nugzar Sadzhaya and with President Shevardnadze the new framework treaty to be signed by Russia and Georgia and cooperation in the struggle against terrorism, Caucasus Press reported. Rushailo told journalists after his talks with Shevardnadze that both Russia and Georgia are concerned at the situation in Georgia's Pankisi gorge, where hundreds of Chechen fighters are believed to have taken refuge. LF[09] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT ANALYZES POLITICAL SPECTRUM...Speaking in Almaty on 20 April at the third congress of the Otan party created in 1999 to support him, President Nursultan Nazarbaev said that Kazakhstan lacks a full-fledged system of political parties, given that those parties which do exist are "scattered and separated," Interfax reported. Nazarbaev divided those parties into four categories: those which support the government and are backed by business circles; public organizations that promote the interests of specific social groups such as pensioners or the handicapped; centers to preserve the culture of specific ethnic groups; and opposition political parties financed from abroad. He suggested that the latter category is illegal in the light of legislation prohibiting the use of foreign capital to finance public organizations. LF[10] ...CALLS ON PRO-PRESIDENTIAL PARTY TO SERVE AS CONSOLIDATING FACTORNazarbaev criticized the Otan party for what he termed its "inertia," and called on its members to strengthen discipline within the party's parliament faction and to act as a "consolidating force" within society, Reuters reported. He suggested that Otan, which has some 300,000 members, most of them state employees, should in future aim to become the ruling party in Kazakhstan. LF[11] WESTERN OIL CONSORTIUM IN KAZAKHSTAN ORDERED TO SUSPEND DRILLINGThe Kazakh government on 20 April ordered the OKIOC consortium to halt drilling at its Sunkar offshore rig following an oil spill three days earlier, Interfax reported. A government commission that inspected the site at the request of Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev determined that OKIOC is violating the terms of a production-sharing agreement it signed with Kazakhstan by testing a well at the West Kashagan field before receiving permission to do so. LF[12] JAILED OFFICIAL'S RELATIVES LEAVE KYRGYZSTANThe wife, two daughters and brother of jailed former Kyrgyz Vice President Feliks Kulov have left Kyrgyzstan for an unspecified destination in Europe, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 20 April, quoting Kulov's lawyer Lyubov Ivanova. Kulov's brother Marsel said in late January that he and other family members hoped to receive political asylum abroad (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 February 2001). Feliks Kulov was sentenced in January to seven years imprisonment on charges of abuse of power (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 January 2001). LF[13] KYRGYZ MUFTI FAILS TO MEET WITH RADICAL ISLAMISTSA planned meeting in southern Kyrgyzstan between Mufti Kimsanbai-hadji Abdrakhmanov and members of the banned Hizb-ut-Tahrir party at the invitation of the latter failed to take place, RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service reported on 21 April. Hizb-ut-Tahrir activists had pasted leaflets in the town of Djalalabad on 17 April inviting Abdrakhmanov and Jolbors Jorobekov, who heads Kyrgyzstan's government Commission on Religious Affairs, to attend a meeting the party planned to convene in the town of Kara-Suu on 20 April. Abdrakhmanov said the Hizb-ut-Tahrir activists failed to show up at the appointed time and place. LF[14] PUTIN CONSULTS WITH PRESIDENTS OF TAJIKISTAN...Beginning a two day working visit to Moscow on 22 April, Tajikistan's President Imomali Rakhmonov met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation on the Afghan-Tajik border, the implementation of bilateral agreements, cooperation within the framework of the CIS Collective Security treaty and military and scientific cooperation, Russian agencies reported. LF[15] ...AND UZBEKISTANPresident Putin on 20 April telephoned with Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov to discuss the latter's planned visit to Moscow in early May, Russian agencies reported. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[16] NARROW VICTORY FOR DJUKANOVIC IN MONTENEGRIN ELECTIONPreliminary results suggest that President Milo Djukanovic and his Victory for Montenegro coalition won the 22 April parliamentary elections that are widely seen as a first step toward a referendum on independence (see "RFE/RL Newsline," "End Note," 20 April 2001). His margin of victory is smaller than had been widely expected, however, and he lacks an overall majority. He said that he will form a coalition government with the Liberal Alliance and with ethnic Albanian leaders. Djukanovic told supporters in Podgorica: "We will start as soon as tomorrow on making the necessary arrangements to create a government committed to an independent, democratic, and pro-European Montenegro," Reuters reported. PM[17] PRO-BELGRADE FORCES ENCOURAGED BY MONTENEGRIN VOTEDjukanovic's pro-Belgrade opponents said in Podgorica on 22 April that they are buoyed by their showing, which was stronger than opinion polls had predicted. Yugoslav Interior Minister Zoran Zivkovic said that the vote shows that Montenegro's population is almost equally split over the question of the republic's political future, Reuters reported. Pro-Belgrade leader Predrag Bulatovic said that any "referendum on independence is now an illusion (see End Note below). We can only now discuss how the future federation will be organized." Final results are expected later on 23 April. PM[18] GERMANY CALLS ON BELGRADE, PODGORICA TO BEGIN TALKSForeign Minister Joschka Fischer said in a statement in Berlin on 23 April that "the German government welcomes the peaceful and seamless conduct of yesterday's parliamentary elections in Montenegro," Reuters reported. He stressed that "Belgrade and Podgorica are now called on to begin serious talks about their joint future immediately, with the goal of renewing relations based on democratic principles in accordance with the existing constitutional order and heeding regional stability. Unilateral steps would run contrary to this goal." By "unilateral steps," he presumably means a referendum without prior agreement with Belgrade. The "Financial Times" quoted an unnamed EU diplomat as saying that "we really should be as neutral as possible. We cannot afford to have the results of this election fan separatist claims in the region. It is now up to [Yugoslav President Vojislav] Kostunica to choose which cards he will play." PM[19] BELGRADE, UN TO DISCUSS TAX-COLLECTION POINTSSerbian officials and representatives of the UN civilian administration in Kosova will hold talks on 24 April about the UN's tax collection checkpoints on its side of the Serbian-Kosova frontier, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 21 April (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 April 2001). Hans Haekkerup, who heads the UN mission in Kosova, said that the UN must collect taxes to finance Kosova's budget. Items subject to tax include alcohol, cigarettes, and fuel. Serbia set up customs posts on its side of the border in February. Meanwhile, in Prishtina, international police arrested an unidentified person on 21 April in connection with the recent bombing in the center of that city. No details are available. PM[20] MACEDONIAN OPPOSITION WANTS INTERIOR MINISTER SACKED"There will be no further talks on forming a broad coalition government unless Interior Minister Dosta Dimovska steps down," a spokesman for the opposition Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) said at a press conference on 19 April (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 April 2001). Several newspapers have reported that the Social Democrats accuse Dimovska of being responsible for the alleged falsification of the results of the most recent presidential and local elections as well as for a bugging scandal that came to light earlier this year (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 February 2001). The main opposition party also threatens to stage street protests if the ruling coalition does not yield to SDSM's demands. "Our tolerance has limits," the spokesman said. UB[21] WHAT DID MACEDONIAN GOVERNMENT KNOW ABOUT GUERRILLAS LAST SUMMER?Macedonian Defense Minister Ljuben Paunovski said on 20 April that the government knew about the activities of armed Albanians on the country's northern border as early as August 2000, the Skopje daily "Dnevnik" reported on 21 April. Paunovski also revealed that due to a number of unspecified mistakes the army was very badly equipped with food supplies, medicine, and uniforms before the outbreak of violence earlier this year. "It was my fault that I did not immediately sack the officials in the ministry [who were] responsible for this situation." It is widely believed that Paunovski's problems as a minister stem at least partly from an internal party struggle between him and Dimovska. UB[22] BOMB FOUND IN MACEDONIAN CAPITALOn 20 April, passersby discovered an explosive device on the Skopje-Veles railroad track in the Skopje suburb of Kisela Voda. As the Skopje daily "Vest" reported on 21 April, antiterror units were able to defuse the bomb, which consisted of two hand grenades, before it could explode. It is not clear who is behind the intended attack. UB[23] HERZEGOVINIAN CROATS SEEKING WAY OUT OF IMPASSE?The Croatian National Assembly, which the international community considers a private body, agreed in Mostar on 21 April to rescind its earlier call for "Croatian self-administration" on the condition that the Bosnian Constitutional Court's ruling on the equality of Croats, Muslims, and Serbs throughout Bosnia be implemented. The assembly also stated in a declaration that it never sought to secede from Bosnia and join Croatia, Hina reported. "Oslobodjenje" reported that hard-line Croat leader Ante Jelavic is negotiating with representatives of the international community for a return of his supporters to the government and for his own withdrawal from politics. PM[24] CROATIAN PRIME MINISTER WARNS HERZEGOVINIANSThe international community's high representative for Bosnia, Wolfgang Petritsch, said in Zagreb on 20 April that the Herzegovinian imbroglio is "not so much about national rights. It is more about criminal activities, illegal activities that the international community must not and cannot accept," AP reported. Croatian Prime Minister Ivica Racan said he fears that the "conflict could escalate" and warned Herzegovinian leaders that they "bear enormous responsibility for the situation." He stressed that the Croats of Bosnia-Herzegovina must seek a peaceful solution to their problems through political institutions. PM[25] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT IN LONDON...Ion Iliescu was to address the annual meeting of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on 23 April, which also marked the 10th anniversary of the bank's formation, Romanian Radio reported. On 22 April, Iliescu met with EBRD President Jean Lemierre to discuss preparations for the upcoming 2002 EBRD annual meeting that will take place in Bucharest. He also met with Prince Philip, with whom he mainly discussed preparations for an ecological summit of southeast European countries that is scheduled to be held in the Romanian capital at the end of this month. In addition, he spoke with businessmen interested in possible investments in Romania. MS[26] ...BELIEVES ROMANIAN SOCIETY 'IMMUNE' TO INTERETHNIC HATRED...Addressing a forum on inter-regional relations in the Balkans on 20 April in Bucharest, Iliescu said Romanian society has "developed an immunity system against interethnic hatred, intolerance, xenophobia, extremism, anti- Semitism, and racism," Mediafax reported. He said Romanians are now "firmly convinced that the existence of national minorities on their territory "is an advantage contributing to the enrichment and diversification of the national cultural and scientific heritage." MS[27] ...AND IS REFUTED BY PRMCorneliu Vadim Tudor, leader of the extremist Greater Romania Party (PRM), said on Romanian Radio on 20 April that if Iliescu promulgates the Local Public Administration Law, the PRM will start impeachment procedures against him on grounds of "high treason." Tudor also accused Iliescu of having influenced the decision of the Constitutional Court to validate the law, calling that decision "shameful." Tudor said his party has asked the Prosecutor-General's Office to launch investigations against Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania Chairman Bela Marko for having participated in Budapest in consultations on the so-called "Status Law," which grants special rights to ethnic Hungarians living in neighboring countries. Also on 20 April, PRM Secretary-General and Cluj Mayor Gheorghe Funar said he will not apply the provisions of the Local Public Administration Law in Cluj, claiming that "only between 11-12 percent" of Cluj inhabitants are Hungarian, and that the January 1992 census data showing over 20 percent was "forged." MS[28] PRM LEADER BACK TO OLD SELFOn 20 April, Tudor also published a list of politicians who, he claimed, withdrew their deposits from the collapsed National Investment Fund because they had inside knowledge. He said the list was given to him by "Romanian Intelligence Service sources." Among those listed are National Liberal Party Chairman Valeriu Stoica, Bucharest Mayor Traian Basescu, former Finance Minister Decebal Traian Remes, former Interior Minister Constantin Dudu Ionescu, and former Privatization Fund chief Radu Sarbu. On the same day, the Bucharest Court of Appeals heeded Tudor's appeal against a Bucharest Tribunal sentence obliging him to pay high compensation damages to Stoica for slander. Tudor had accused Stoica of involvement in the international trafficking of adopted children, and the Court of Appeals ruled that Stoica may have influenced the ruling in his former capacity as justice minister and ordered a retrial, Mediafax reported. MS[29] ROMANIAN SUPREME DEFENSE COUNCIL DECIDES AGAINST 'INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY'The Supreme Council of National Defense (CSAT) decided on 20 April that the National Defense Law currently being examined by the council will not include any reference to an umbrella body of intelligence services previously referred to as "the intelligence community," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 April 2001). Presidential counselor on national defense and security Ioan Talpes told journalists after a CSAT meeting that both Iliescu and Prime Minister Adrian Nastase are opposed to a "single command" of the intelligence services and that other modalities of coordinating the work of those services will be examined. Nastase on 21 April said there "will be no single coordinator" of those services. MS.[30] VORONIN RE-ELECTED MOLDOVAN COMMUNIST LEADER...President Vladimir Voronin was re-elected chairman of the Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) on 22 April, the second and last day of the PCM's Fourth Congress, ITAR-TASS reported. Addressing the gathering on that day, Voronin said the PCM is not promoting a monopoly in "either ideology or the political system." He said that "the syndrome the Communist Party of the Soviet Union has become obsolete, and the PCM regards as its priorities human rights, the freedom of speech and of religion, pluralism, and other democratic principles." Addressing the forum one day earlier, Voronin said the PCM will "pursue a modern socialist ideology" and will lead Moldova into a "strategic change of its political course." Later on 22 April, speaking at a ceremony held at a statue of Lenin in Chisinau, Voronin said Moldova must "resist in face of Europe just as Cuba resists in face of the U.S.," Romanian Radio reported. MS[31] ...IN ZYUGANOV'S PRESENCEGennadii Zyuganov, leader of Russia's Communist Party, told the gathering that the "return to power" of the Communists in Moldova will "restore the ruined country." He stressed that "the time has come when the peoples of the former Soviet republics begin to realize that we were separated from each other artificially and we can no longer wait on the sidelines of the globalization process." Zyuganov supported the idea of Moldova's joining of the Russia-Belarus Union and urged Chisinau to follow Belarus's example of establishing direct ties with Russian regions. He called for a "democratic and fair integration" of Moldova and Russia, "without encroachments on cultural, linguistic, and traditional differences," ITAR-TASS reported. MS[32] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT RATIFIES MILITARY TREATY WITH RUSSIAThe parliament on 20 April ratified a military cooperation agreement with Russia that was signed in 1997, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The former parliament, dominated by center-right forces, had refused to ratify the agreement, which calls for military cooperation in navigation, supplies, transportation, intelligence, and training. The five-year treaty will be automatically extended unless one of the sides refuses to do so. The ratification was supported by deputies representing the PCM and the Braghis Alliance and opposed by the Popular Party Christian Democratic (PPCD). PPCD parliamentary group leader Vlad Cubreacov said the treaty included a provision obliging the sides to safeguard military secrets "even if the information refers to actions and plans that could endanger European and world peace and stability." MS[33] BULGARIAN COURT DELAYS REGISTRATION OF SIMEON II MOVEMENTThe Sofia City Court on 20 April delayed registering the movement founded by former King Simeon II, "Monitor" and Reuters reported. The court accepted the documents for the movement's registration but refused to instantly rule on its legality. Reports say that, if the delay is prolonged, the movement might miss the 2 May deadline for registering with the Central Electoral Commission ahead of the elections scheduled for 17 June. The ruling could take as long as 30 days and will come into force only after its publication in Bulgaria's official "State Gazette," which could take an additional 7 days, in order to complete the process by which the commission can register the new party. MS[34] BULGARIA SEEKS MEAT, CHEESE CONCESSIONS FROM EUAn Agriculture Ministry official told Reuters on 20 April that Bulgaria will not start new trade negotiations with the EU until the EU "reviews and eases its current tough licensing regime for our meat and cheese exporters." The official said that Bulgaria is unable to fulfill even 10 percent of the duty-free quotas granted by the EU because its meat and cheese exporters are refused licenses. The EU has not licensed any of the 570 Bulgarian meat-producing farms and licensed only four of Bulgaria's 280 dairy farms. In 2000, Bulgaria scrapped import duties for 470 farm products originating from EU countries in return for reciprocal steps. It also shut down 311 meat-producing and processing farms and 230 dairy farms that failed to meet EU standards. MS[C] END NOTE[35] THE BALL IS IN BELGRADE'S COURTBy Patrick MooreThe Montenegrin parliamentary elections of 22 April indicate that the ethnic Montenegrin electorate is split almost evenly between those favoring independence and those wanting to maintain links with Belgrade. Since President Milo Djukanovic failed to get the ringing endorsement for independence that he wanted, attention now centers on what inducements the Belgrade leadership will offer Montenegro to maintain the joint state. The parliamentary elections have given Djukanovic's Victory for Montenegro coalition a less than two-point lead over its rival, Together for Yugoslavia. Djukanovic will be able to form a majority government only with the help of the often strong-willed, pro-independence Liberal Alliance and of ethnic Albanian deputies. One item on the new parliament's agenda will be to call a referendum on independence and set the rules for such a ballot. But Djukanovic may now be in no hurry to press ahead on that issue. Given that polls had suggested that he would do much better in the parliamentary election than in any referendum, the chance for success of a referendum now seems less likely than it did before the 22 April vote. Another thing that the polls suggested about a referendum was that the wording and options it contains will be crucial to its success or failure. What kind of options Montenegro now faces -- with or without a referendum -- now largely depend on what Belgrade is or is not prepared to offer. The crux of the problem has been that, to maintain a joint state, Djukanovic has insisted on the full equality of what would be two independent states, which would agree on setting up certain joint institutions. But no Serbian politician can agree to full equality, given that Serbs outnumber Montenegrins by something like 10-to-one. Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic recently said, moreover, that if Montenegro wants independence, then it must take independence and not expect to negotiate any special links with Serbia. Indeed, Djukanovic has not always been clear about what arrangements he would be prepared to accept with Belgrade, if any, to maintain a joint state. (In fact, in recent months he has increasingly stressed the need for independence.) At times the Montenegrin leadership has said it would agree to a joint foreign policy, but Podgorica also insists that both Serbia and Montenegro receive international diplomatic recognition and have their own seats in the UN. Djindjic and others have called this unacceptable. Podgorica has spoken of the possibility of a joint army with Belgrade, but has attached a series of conditions such that in practice it would have its own national army under Montenegrin command. And as to finances, there can be no serious talk of any joint financial arrangements so long as Serbia uses the dinar and Montenegro has the German mark as its currency. With the Montenegrin electorate evenly split over its age-old dilemma regarding their mountainous republic's relationship to Serbia, the time seems to have arrived for creative, statesmanlike offers from Belgrade aimed at tipping the balance. Many politicians in the Serbian capital have been telling visitors that regional stability and Serbia's prosperity require the unity of Serbia and Montenegro. Well, now a situation seems to have arisen that calls for Serbian leaders to show what they can offer Montenegrin voters in order to carry the day. The circumstances call for a positive and conciliatory approach. Attempts to humiliate Djukanovic could prove counterproductive for Belgrade in the eyes of the Montenegrin electorate. The same could be said about attempts to create a climate of fear, as Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica did in recent weeks in his frequent suggestions that Montenegrin independence would lead to a wave of perhaps violent attempts to set up new, small states across the region. Those remarks were aimed primarily at winning the sympathy and political support of the international community, which seems to have developed something of a phobia about the emergence of new states in the region. This is despite the fact that Montenegro has a very old tradition of statehood and that, as a federal republic of the still disintegrating former Yugoslavia, it has just as much a right to independence as Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and Macedonia -- or Serbia. And this is also despite the fact that, regardless of what may or may not happen in Montenegro, the overwhelming majority of Kosovars have already made it clear that they want nothing more to do with Belgrade. Immediately after the 22 April Montenegrin elections, some observers began suggesting that the time has come for the international community to drop its recent talk about using "leverage" on the Montenegrin leadership not to make "hasty" moves toward independence and instead stress bringing Belgrade and Podgorica around to serious talks about the future. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said that "Belgrade and Podgorica are now called on to begin serious talks about their joint future immediately, with the goal of renewing relations based on democratic principles in accordance with the existing constitutional order and heeding regional stability." London's "Financial Times" quoted an unnamed EU diplomat as saying that "we really should be as neutral as possible. We cannot afford to have the results of this election fan separatist claims in the region. It is now up to Kostunica to choose which cards he will play." 23-04-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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