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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 77, 01-04-20Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 77, 20 April 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT BRIEFS POLITICAL PARTIES ON KEY WEST TALKS...Robert Kocharian met on 19 April with the heads of parliamentary factions and groups to brief them on the OSCE-mediated Karabakh peace talks held in Key West in early April, Noyan Tapan and RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Kocharian did not touch on the possible participation of representatives of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) in future talks. Orinats Yerkir faction leader Artur Baghdasarian told journalists after the meeting that he did not receive the impression from Kocharian that "there are now alarming developments for the Armenian side." A second participant who asked not to be identified similarly quoted the president as saying that Armenia and the NKR are in a "favorable position" at the present stage of negotiations and will not be pressured to make unacceptable concessions to Azerbaijan. LF[02] ...HAILS ECONOMIC UPSWINGPresident Kocharian told a cabinet session on 19 April that Armenia's GDP grew by 12 percent during the first three months of 2001, the largest quarterly increase in a decade, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Industrial output increased by 20 percent in January-March, while exports grew by 30 percent. Describing the data as "encouraging," Kocharian predicted that this year may prove "decisive" for the country's economy. He went on to praise the government's macroeconomic policies, adding that he sees "no need" at present for sweeping personnel changes within the government. LF[03] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION AGAIN DEMANDS HALT TO ENERGY PRIVATIZATIONUp to 8,000 people attended a rally convened in Yerevan on 19 April by some 30 left-wing parties and NGOs to protest the imminent announcement of the results of the tender to privatize four state-owned energy distribution systems, Noyan Tapan and RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Leaders of the parties in question accused the Armenian government of jeopardizing the country's energy security and ignoring the socio-economic concerns of the population, who will have to pay higher prices for electricity in the wake of the sell-off. The outcome of the tender is to be announced on 21 April. LF[04] AZERBAIJANI GOVERNMENT STREAMLINING GETS UNDERWAYAzerbaijan's president, Heidar Aliev, on 19 April signed decrees abolishing three state committees, including those on land and interethnic relations, and creating a new Fuel and Energy Ministry, Interfax and Turan reported. Those moves marked the beginning of a government streamlining that he had announced three months earlier (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 January 2001). Aliev named Madjid Kerimov to head the new ministry, which Deputy Prime Minister Oktai Akhverdiev said will coordinate work with foreign investors in the oil and gas sector, according to AP. LF[05] ABKHAZ PARLIAMENT, GOVERNMENT IN EXILE CRITICIZE AUTHORITIES OVER HOSTAGE IMPASSEThe Abkhaz government and parliament in exile, which are composed of Georgian officials who fled Abkhazia in 1993, released a statement in Tbilisi on 20 April in which they criticized the Georgian leadership for failing to act more resolutely to secure the release of three Georgian guerrillas taken hostage in Abkhazia's Gali Raion on 8 April, Caucasus Press reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 and 17 April 2001). Warning of a possible resumption of hostilities in southern Abkhazia, the exile parliament and legislature said that Georgian displaced persons from Abkhazia will stage mass protests if the Georgian government fails to take steps to secure the guerrillas' release. Relatives and friends of the three guerrillas similarly staged a protest in Tbilisi on 20 April to demand the release of the three men. LF[06] GEORGIA, BULGARIA SIGN MILITARY COOPERATION AGREEMENTThe Georgian and visiting Bulgarian chiefs of army general staff, Djoni Pirtskhalaishvili and Miho Mihov, signed an agreement in Tbilisi on 19 April on bilateral military cooperation in 2001, Caucasus Press reported. The agreement envisages technical cooperation and joint training. Mihov also visited Tbilisi Aerospace Manufacturing to discuss the possibility that the plant could modernize two Bulgarian squadrons of Soviet-made SU-25 aircraft. Pirtskhalaishvili told journalists on 19 April that Bulgaria will shortly give Georgia two airborne landing craft that meet NATO standards. LF[07] GEORGIAN SECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS ABDUCTORS OF SPANISH BUSINESSMEN IDENTIFIEDSecurity Minister Vakhtang Kutateladze has said that the circle of suspects in the 30 November kidnapping east of Tbilisi of two Spanish businessman has been narrowed to a handful of individuals, "Dilis gazeti" reported on 20 April (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 2000). He added that the Georgian police have not established contact with the kidnappers and no ransom has been demanded for the hostages' release. In January, Georgian Interior Minister Kakha Targamadze complained that the two men's relatives had embarked on negotiations with the abductors, thereby complicating efforts to secure the release of the two men (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 January 2001). LF[08] CRIME RATE ON THE RISE IN KAZAKHSTANKazakhstan's crime rate grew by 9.7 percent during the first three months of 2001 compared with the corresponding period last year, Interior Minister Bolat Iskakov told journalists in Astana on 19 April, according to Interfax. The number of serious crimes committed during that period rose by 24.4 percent, and 1,200 criminal cases were brought against drug dealers. LF[09] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT REJECTS DEPUTY SPEAKER'S RESIGNATIONOnly 30 of the 60 deputies in the Legislative Assembly, the lower house of Kyrgyzstan's bicameral legislature, voted on 19 April to accept the resignation of deputy speaker Omurbek Tekebaev, which he had submitted on 12 April for the second time (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 April 2001). A minimum of 31 votes were required in favor of Tekebaev's resignation. Interfax quoted Tekebaev as vowing to continue in that post; he noted that he is the sole remaining representative of the opposition to occupy a senior position within the country's leadership. LF[10] TAJIK PRESIDENT CALLS FOR GREATER EUROPEAN INPUT IN MEDIATING END TO AFGHAN CONFLICTMeeting in Dushanbe on 19 April with a group of visiting European military attaches, Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov said that the OSCE and the EU should play a more prominent role, alongside the Six Plus Two Group, Interfax reported. That latter group aligns Afghanistan's immediate neighbors -- China, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan -- together with Russia and the U.S. Rakhmonov argued that the Afghan problem is a European, and not just an Asian one, adding that Tajikistan's southern border with Afghanistan is also the southern gateway to the OSCE. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[11] YUGOSLAV ARMY ADMITS KOSOVA WAR CRIMESBelgrade's private B92 radio quoted army spokesman Svetozar Radisic as saying there were 24 cases in which soldiers committed war crimes during the 1998-1999 crackdown in Kosova, Reuters reported on 19 April. He added that the army has tried the individuals concerned and that some have already been punished. He did not elaborate. This is believed to be the first public admission by the army that some of its soldiers are guilty of having committed war crimes. PM[12] BRITAIN, SECURITY COUNCIL CONDEMN PRISHTINA BOMBINGIn a statement in London on 18 April, British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook condemned a bombing in Prishtina the previous day that left one man dead and four people wounded, Reuters reported. The bomb went off outside a building that contained several offices, including those of the Belgrade authorities. Cook said: "Although the precise circumstances of the incident are not yet clear, it seems likely that this is yet another ethnically motivated attack on Kosovo Serbs. I call on Kosovo's leaders to condemn this senseless act, and to do all they can to stop similar incidents recurring in the future. They should be in no doubt that Kosovo has little real hope of moving forwards until extremist violence of this kind becomes a thing of the past." The next day, the UN Security Council, which is chaired by Britain, condemned the bombing at Belgrade's request. The council called the blast an act of "cowardly terrorism." PM[13] KOSTUNICA PRESSURES UN OVER KOSOVAYugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica said in a letter to UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan on 19 April that the bomb blast "is just further proof of the extremely bad security situation in Kosovo, particularly for the few remaining non-Albanians," Reuters reported. Kostunica added that "it is no longer enough just to call for peace and respect of law and order; [violence] should be resolutely halted and everything should be done to eradicate terrorism." Under both former President Slobodan Milosevic and the current authorities, Belgrade has used violent incidents against Serbs to argue that KFOR is not doing its job. Belgrade says that it wants some of its forces to return to Kosova, but KFOR notes that it has received no formal request to that effect. In December, one of Kostunica's advisers published two articles in the weekly magazine "NIN," arguing that Belgrade should work with the international community to facilitate a "return to Kosovo." Several ethnic Albanian leaders have warned that any return of Serbian forces would lead to renewed violence. PM[14] MONTENEGRO PREPARES TO VOTECampaigning for the 22 April parliamentary elections ended officially at midnight on 19 April, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "End Note, " below). President Milo Djukanovic called on all citizens and political parties to maintain a peaceful atmosphere for the vote. PM[15] SOLANA SEEKS PROGRESS IN MACEDONIAJavier Solana, the EU's chief security policy official, said in Skopje on 19 April that he hopes for progress by June in the dialogue between the country's main political parties (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 6 April 2001). He added: "I'm pleased that all the main political parties are determined...to have a country that is politically stable, democratically organized, and that has the ambition to become a member of the European Union," Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 April 2001). Ethnic Albanian political leader Arben Xhaferi said that 15 June is Solana's target date for reaching an agreement among Macedonia's political parties, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[16] MACEDONIAN POLICE CHIEF DENIES GUERRILLA LINKSFormer Tetovo police chief Rauf Ramadani said on 19 April that media reports that he was sacked because of sympathies with the ethnic Albanian guerrillas are false (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 April, 2001). Ramadani added that he chose to leave office and asked the authorities to pick a replacement from his own political party, AP reported from Skopje. The new police chief is Shaib Bilali. Ramadani stressed that he was exhausted: "Everything that happened was just too much. Psychologically and physically I could no longer handle my post." PM[17] DAILY: MACEDONIA TO END RELATIONS WITH TAIWANThe Skopje daily "Dnevnik" of 20 April cited unnamed sources as saying that the government is planning to end diplomatic relations with the Republic of China and re-establish them with the People's Republic of China. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Skopje and Taipei in 1999 led Beijing in the UN Security Council to block the prolongation of the mandate of the UN peacekeeping mission to Macedonia. Taiwanese enterprises did not invest in the Macedonian economy as much as many had hoped, which prompted some parties to call for an end to the "Taiwan adventure." The decision to recognize Taiwan was the pet project of former Deputy Prime Minister Vasil Tupurkovski (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 and 11 December 2000 and 13 March 2001). UB[18] ALBANIAN MINISTER QUITS AFTER ROAD DEATHTransportation Minister Sokol Nano resigned late on 19 April after running over a woman, who later died on the way to the hospital. He said in a statement that he quit in order not to prejudice the official investigation of the accident, which took place as he was driving to inspect work on the highway linking Tirana and Durres, Reuters reported. Driving safety standards in Albania are notoriously bad. PM[19] AUSTRIA PLEDGES TO HELP SLOVENIAAustrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel told his Slovenian counterpart Janez Drnovsek at a conference in Graz that Austria will provide "support and expertise" for Slovenia in its quest to join the EU. Schuessel added, however, that there is still noticeable mistrust on both sides, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on 20 April. Vienna's "Die Presse" wrote of "Vienna's arrogance and Slovenia's inferiority complex." Drnovsek stressed that Slovenia wants to join the EU by 2004. He referred in his remarks to "the Slovenian minority in Austria" but did not address his hosts' concerns regarding the deportation without compensation of German-speakers from Slovenia in the wake of World War II. PM[20] CROATIAN POLICE FIRE ON ITALIAN TRAWLERAn Italian Foreign Ministry spokesman said in Rome on 19 April that an Italian fishing boat came under fire from Croatian police off the Istrian coast, Reuters reported. He added that the ministry is investigating reports that a Croatian naval vessel was also involved. In Zagreb, the Croatian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the Italian captain ignored repeated verbal warnings and flares to signal that he was in Croatian waters, and that the crew continued to fish despite the warnings. The ministry added: "In line with his authority, the police commander then fired several short bursts from a 7.62 mm machine gun above the Italian boat, and subsequently also aimed at its masts and radar aerials." The Italian ship then entered Italian waters. No one was injured. PM[21] CROATIAN PRESIDENT WANTS CONSENSUS ON SECURITYStipe Mesic said in Zagreb on 19 April that the authorities need to work out a national strategic concept and then enact legislation in keeping with that overview. He stressed that it is important to clarify matters quickly and put an end to feuding between various officials and departments in the government and defense community, "Jutarnji list" reported. PM[22] BOSNIA WANTS TO TRY 'BABO'The Bosnian authorities have sent documents to Zagreb in a bid to secure the extradition from Rijeka of Fikret Abdic, the former kingpin of northwest Bosnia's Bihac region, "Novi List" reported on 20 April. The colorful Abdic, who is known to his followers as "Babo," or daddy, is regarded by the Sarajevo authorities as a war criminal. PM[23] BOSNIAN CROAT EX-MINISTER DENIES TAKING DOCUMENTSFormer federal Defense Minister Miroslav Prce told a press conference in Mostar on 19 April that the documents his successor, Mijo Anic, claims that Prce took with him never left Croatian military offices in the Herzegovinian capital, "Oslobodjenje" reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 April 2001). PM[24] BOSNIAN SERBS DENY ARMS SALES STORYRepublika Srpska Defense Minister Slobodan Bilic told Deutsche Welle's Bosnian Service in Banja Luka on 19 April that the Bosnian Serb army is not engaged in illegal arms sales, as Spain's El Mundo TV recently reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 April 2001). PM[25] FORMER ROMANIAN SECURITATE OFFICER RESIGNS PARLIAMENTARY POSITIONDeputy Ristea Priboi on 19 April announced that "at his own initiative" he is resigning from the position of chairman of the parliamentary commission overseeing the activities of the Foreign Intelligence Service, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Priboi said the campaign against him was the outcome of an "internal political game" and added that he is resigning because he is aware that "the following months will be extremely important for a favorable decision [concerning Romania's access] at the NATO summit and I do not want to be an obstacle." He again denied having been involved in any way in the attacks directed between 1980 and 1983 against RFE/RL staff in Munich, saying that at that time he was involved in other intelligence activities and that only in 1988-89 did he work in "the group that monitored foreign stations broadcasting in Romanian." President Ion Iliescu called Priboi's decision "wise." MS[26] ILIESCU OPPOSES SETTING UP INTELLIGENCE UMBRELLA BODY...Speaking to journalists during a visit to Giurgiu County on 19 April, President Iliescu said he is opposed to the proposed establishment of an umbrella organization that would coordinate the activities of all intelligence services, Romanian television reported. The Supreme Council of National Defense (CSAT) is soon to debate two draft laws on national security, and both drafts provide for the setting up of an "intelligence community" subordinate to the CSAT and the president. Iliescu said such structures do exist in several democratic countries, but the setting up of the intelligence community might "create the impression the former Securitate, which was in charge of all such activities, is about to be revived." Iliescu again denied any conflict between himself and Premier Adrian Nastase on this or other matters. MS[27] ...CRITICIZES EUROPEAN COMMUNITY OVER SCHENGEN AGREEMENT...Iliescu also said during the visit that the "most serious danger to world instability" stems from "the huge discrepancy between the rich and the poor." He said that prior to 1989, the countries that now are signatories to the Schengen Agreement were "harshly criticizing the antidemocratic measures in the countries of the former Soviet space," and were "calling for the freedom of movement in Europe." Nowadays, the very same countries "hinder the freedom of movement themselves." There are no obstacles from the authorities hindering Romanians' free travel, but "the rich world does not want them," he commented. MS[28] ...WARNS AGAINST ANTI-ROMANIAN WESTERN 'CAMPAIGN' OVER ROMA SITUATIONIliescu also said that after the international campaign conducted against Romania because of its homeless children problem, a new campaign is about to be launched, this time focusing on the Romany problem. He said Swedish Ambassador Nils Revelius "taught me a lesson on Roma integration" at their last encounter, and the problem was also raised by the Swedish authorities during Nastase's recent visit to that country. Sweden currently holds the EU chair. Iliescu said the local authorities in the Buzescu village, Teleorman County, should invite the Swedish ambassador to visit and witness that "Gypsies do not live only in hovels, some of them have palaces like in Thailand." MS[29] ROMANIAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT REJECTS APPEAL AGAINST LOCAL ADMINISTRATION LAWThe Constitutional Court unanimously rejected an appeal on 19 April against the constitutionality of the recently passed Local Public Administration Law. The appeal was launched by 73 deputies representing the Greater Romania Party (PRM) and one deputy from the ruling Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR). The court said the rights granted by the law to national minorities do not affect the status of Romanian as the country's official language. The PRM called the decision "scandalous" and called on President Iliescu to refrain from promulgating the law, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[30] ROMANIA SETS UP COMMISSION TO EXAMINE PENDING HUNGARIAN BILLThe Romanian authorities have decided to set up an ad hoc commission to examine the possible effects of Hungary's pending bill on the status of Hungarian minorities living beyond Hungary's borders. The Hungarian parliament (see above) on 19 April began debating the bill and Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR) Chairman Bela Marko, who is attending the debates in Budapest, denied that the legislation will result in discrimination in Romania itself. Marko said Romania is also helping Romanians abroad preserve their national identity. A Romanian Foreign Ministry delegation will travel to Budapest to receive clarifications regarding the bill, which was dubbed by the PRM leadership as "extremely dangerous" and "amounting to interference in the affairs of the states on whose territories live members of the Hungarian minority." MS[31] ROMANIAN RULING PARTY LEADS IN POLLA public opinion poll conducted by the Center for Urban and Rural Sociology (CURS) in late March shows the PDSR leading by a large margin in party preferences, with a backing of 56 percent, Mediafax reported. The ruling party is followed by the PRM (15 percent), the National Liberal Party (11 percent), and by the Democratic Party and the UDMR, each with 6 percent. CURS polling expert Sebastian Lazaroiu said the results reflect "customary electoral cycles," pointing out that parties that win parliamentary elections usually lead in opinion polls for some time after their victory until they eventually suffer from "governmental erosion." MS[32] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES TARLEV CABINETThe parliament voted confidence in the new cabinet headed by Vasile Tarlev on 19 April, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The government was endorsed by 75 deputies representing the Party of Moldovan Communists and most Braghis Alliance lawmakers. The 11 Popular Party Christian Democratic deputies voted against the cabinet. The new government includes six members of the former cabinet headed by Dumitru Braghis, among whom are Deputy Premier and Economics Minister Andrei Cucu and Foreign Minister Nicolae Cernomaz. Braghis said his party can not "really object" to the new government, as 11 out of the 17 members of the new government were either ministers or deputy ministers in his own cabinet. MS[33] RUSSIAN OFFICIAL ENDS MOLDOVA VISIT...Yevgenii Primakov, chairman of the Russian State Commission for the settlement of the Transdniester conflict, on 18 April told journalists after talks in Chisinau and Tiraspol that "favorable conditions" exist at present for solving the long-standing dispute, Infotag reported on the next day. He said that following the Moldovan parliamentary and presidential elections, the two sides "are now much closer" than before. Primakov said he disagrees with the opinion that "pro-Russian forces" have come to power in Moldova and added that Moscow continues to be ready to "render assistance in achieving a mutually acceptable compromise." He said the solution must safeguard Moldova's territorial integrity while offering "maximum protection" to Transdniester interests. The only solution Russia will not support, Primakov said, is that of "extremism" that either ignores Tiraspol's "special status" or alternatively calls for "two equal-rights subjects that establish contract-based relations." MS[34] ...RULING OUT RUSSIAN BASES ON MOLDOVAN TERRITORYPrimakov also said he can "state with confidence" that the Russian troops stationed in the Transdniester will "sooner or later" be withdrawn from that region. He said he "rules out" the possibility of transforming the Russian contingent there into "a Russian base on Moldovan territory." At the same time, Primakov said he cannot "speak about timing, because a withdrawal cannot take place in conditions of an unsolved conflict" since that could "upset the fragile equilibrium that exists between the sides." MS[35] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT SAYS HE AGREED WITH SMIRNOV ON LIBERATION OF ILASCU GROUPVladimir Voronin told journalists on 19 April in Chisinau that in accordance with an agreement he reached on 9 April with separatist leader Igor Smirnov, the four members of the "Ilascu group" detained in the Transdniester were to be set free on 13 April. President Voronin said "something unpredictable" had hindered the liberation and mentioned the refusal of the four to address pardon requests to Smirnov (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 April 2001). Voronin added that he nonetheless hopes that "in the near future" the four members of the group will be set free, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. MS[36] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT DISSOLVED AHEAD OF ELECTIONSThe parliament dissolved itself on 19 April ahead of the general elections scheduled for 17 June, BTA and international agencies reported. This is the first legislature since the end of communism in 1989 to complete its four- year term. Addressing its final session, Prime Minister Ivan Kostov said this parliament "will remain in Bulgaria's history for having successfully implemented economic, banking, and monetary reform," as well as "changing the structure of ownership, introducing budgetary and monetary discipline, and achieving a lasting economic stabilization of the country." President Petar Stoyanov, alluding to the recently established National Movement for Simeon II, told the outgoing legislature that "no one in Bulgaria can doubt the role and the necessity of the parliament in the process of democratization" and cited the constitutional article that stipulates that "Bulgaria is a republic with parliamentary rule ...[and] no party, institution or individual can expropriate its national sovereignty." MS[37] BULGARIA FEARS CAPITAL PUNISHMENT IN LIBYAN TRIALForeign Ministry officials are worried that the six Bulgarian citizens on trial in Libya for allegedly willfully infecting children with the HIV virus will be sentenced to death, the "Monitor" daily reported, citing media reports. Bulgaria's ambassador to Tripoli, Ludmil Spasov, has been urgently summoned to Sofia for instructions, the daily "24 Chasa" reported on 19 April. The trial has been adjourned 10 times and is expected to be resumed on 28 April. MS[C] END NOTE[38] MONTENEGRO AT A CROSSROADSBy Patrick MooreMontenegrin voters go to the polls on 22 April in early parliamentary elections. The issue is whether Montenegro will remain in a joint state with Serbia or reclaim the independence it gave up in 1918. At the bottom of the dilemma facing the voters is the fact that there has never been a broad consensus in Montenegrin society as to whether Montenegrins are a distinct people or a special branch of the Serbian nation. The dispute between these two political camps has dominated Montenegrin politics for most of the past 200 years. The more recent impetus for seeking a resolution to the dispute is the growing disenchantment of much of the Montenegrin political elite with the leadership in Belgrade. Most of the Podgorica leaders around President Milo Djukanovic supported former Serbian and Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic during his rise to power in the late 1980s and in the Croatian and Bosnian wars that began in 1991 and 1992, respectively. Many observers suggest that Djukanovic and the rest of the Montenegrin leadership profited handsomely from illegal sanctions-busting transactions in gasoline and cigarettes at the time. But by the mid-1990s, Djukanovic and his allies concluded that they and Montenegro had more to gain by breaking with a Belgrade regime that had become an international pariah. They accordingly parted ways with then- Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic, who went on to become Milosevic's prime minister in Belgrade after Djukanovic won the Montenegrin presidency in 1997. After winning Montenegro's top office, Djukanovic increasingly struck out on a path that seemed destined to lead to full independence from Belgrade, while still holding out at least some hope that negotiations could lead to a redefinition of relations with Serbia. So long as Milosevic was in power, Djukanovic could count on political and economic support from the international community, which regarded his Montenegro as a less-than- perfect democracy but a democracy nonetheless. Matters changed abruptly with the victory of the Serbian opposition in two sets of elections at the end of 2000. The international community became increasingly critical of Montenegrin aspirations toward independence and urged Djukanovic to work for "a democratic Montenegro in a democratic Yugoslavia," as Washington and Brussels often put it. But for Djukanovic, there was no turning back. Whether or not he would have been amenable to a generous deal from a sympathetic leadership in Belgrade is open to dispute. In the event, he has often complained that Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica is as disrespectful toward Montenegro and its interests as Milosevic had been, and that independence is the only alternative for Montenegro. The 22 April ballot is the first electoral test for Djukanovic and his Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) since the ouster of Milosevic. Polls suggest that Djukanovic's Victory for Montenegro coalition is likely to win the largest bloc of seats in the new legislature. The opposing Together for Yugoslavia coalition of Predrag Bulatovic and his Socialist People's Party (SNP) trails by at least several percentage points in most polls. The much smaller, pro-independence Liberal Alliance can probably be counted on to support Djukanovic on key votes. The Muslim, Croatian, and Albanian minorities favor independence and could provide the decisive votes to tip the balance in favor of Djukanovic, as many observers think they did in the 1997 election. Ham-fisted efforts by the pro-Belgrade camp to exclude Albanians and Muslims from an eventual referendum on independence have only made those minorities more determined to support Djukanovic and his allies. And independence is what the 22 April vote is really about. Should the Victory for Montenegro coalition win, Djukanovic has pledged to call a referendum on independence, probably in June. Polls suggest that more important than the timing of a referendum will be its wording. Sentiment among ethnic Montenegrins on maintaining ties with Belgrade continues to be roughly evenly divided, although polls indicate that the pro-independence camp is growing, particularly among young people. The Belgrade leadership has not been silent during what is ostensibly a Montenegrin election campaign. Kostunica has bluntly reminded Podgorica that Montenegro is a tiny country and that tens of thousands of Montenegrins live in Serbia. He is willing to negotiate with Montenegro about redefining the legal basis of the federation, but not on terms that Podgorica can accept. Djukanovic wants Serbia and Montenegro to set up a new relationship as independent states, but this is unacceptable to Kostunica. And in remarks intended perhaps for the international community, Kostunica has suggested that Montenegrin independence could lead to moves by "extremists" and others in the region to "redraw the map of the Balkans" by declaring independence for their respective areas, such as western Macedonia. Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic has been less outspoken than Kostunica, but he has made it clear that there can be no "special relationship" between Belgrade and Podgorica if Montenegro opts for independence. Whatever the case may be, neither Djindjic nor any other Serbian politician can agree to Djukanovic's demand for full equality between the two republics, because Serbia's population is roughly ten times that of Montenegro. But Djindjic may be less opposed to Montenegrin self-determination than Kostunica. This is because Djindjic's power base is in the Serbian government, while Kostunica will be out of a job if Montenegro leaves Yugoslavia, and Yugoslavia ceases to exist. In any event, Djindjic took refuge from Milosevic's police in Montenegro in 1999 and is likely to know conditions and leaders there better than many others in Belgrade do. Should the Victory for Montenegro coalition win the parliamentary elections and announce a referendum, the international community will have to consider its options. Russia, which traditionally enjoys prestige and influence in Montenegro, may have painted itself into a corner politically by unambiguously backing Kostunica and Together for Yugoslavia. The EU and U.S. have let it be known that they want Montenegro and Serbia to remain together, but have usually qualified their remarks to that effect by adding that they will respect the will of the Montenegrin voters. 20-04-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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