RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 146, 00-08-01

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 146, 1 August 2000 Report," Vol. 2, No. 16, 26 April 2000). LF

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] IS AZERBAIJAN SETTLING CHECHENS ALONG 'LINE OF CONTACT'?

[02] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT HINTS AT RUSSIAN OBSTRUCTION OF ABKHAZ

[03] GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER DENIES DELAYING VISA REGIME WITH

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[04] ALBRIGHT TO SOUND OUT MONTENEGRIN LEADER ON ELECTIONS...

[05] ...CALLS ON SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO UNITE

[06] UN: KOSOVA RESIDENTS TO VOTE IN YUGOSLAV ELECTIONS

[07] YUGOSLAV COMMANDER: MONTENEGRO 'UNDERMINING' ARMY

[08] 'SILLY SEASON' COMES TO SERBIA...

[09] ...WHILE DUTCH REMAIN BAFFLED BY SERBIAN CHARGES

[10] SLOVENIAN PRIME MINISTER SET TO LAUNCH PARTY

[11] SLOVENIAN NATIONAL BANK CHIEF TO STAY OUT OF POLITICS

[12] CROATS BACK EU MEMBERSHIP

[13] NATO NAMES NEW BOSNIAN COMMANDER

[14] BOSNIAN SERB HARD-LINE PARTY PICKS CANDIDATE

[15] ROMANIA'S LIBERALS, PEASANTISTS, EXCHANGE MUTUAL

[16] ...WHILE NEW RIGHTIST ALLIANCE STILL FACES PROBLEMS

[17] UKRAINE TO RESUME GAS DELIVERIES TO BULGARIA

[C] END NOTE

[18] STRANGE BEDFELLOWS IN LITHUANIA

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] IS AZERBAIJAN SETTLING CHECHENS ALONG 'LINE OF CONTACT'?

Azerbaijani leadership has begun settling Chechen guerrillas

in abandoned former Azerbaijani-populated villages in

Shaumyan Raion, which borders on the unrecognized Armenian-

populated Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, "Nezavisimaya gazeta"

reported on 1 August, without citing sources. The Chechens in

question are officially said to be refugees, but the

newspaper reasoned that refugees from the war in Chechnya

would be unwilling to take up residence close to the Line of

Contact, which separates Karabakh Armenian and Azerbaijani

forces. The Moscow daily speculates that the Azerbaijani

rationale is to co-opt the Chechen fighters to launch a new

military campaign to bring Karabakh back under Azerbaijani

control. LF

[02] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT HINTS AT RUSSIAN OBSTRUCTION OF ABKHAZ

In his weekly radio broadcast on 31 July,

Eduard Shevardnadze said he doubts that the resolution on

Abkhazia adopted last week by the UN Security Council will

lead to a breakthrough in resolving the conflict, Interfax

reported. Shevardnadze expressed regret that the Russian

delegation failed to endorse the UN-drafted document intended

as a basis for a settlement; that document defines Abkhazia's

envisaged future status within Georgia. The Russians

reportedly claimed that they have no instructions from Moscow

to approve the document. Also on 31 July, the Russian Foreign

Ministry issued a communique affirming Moscow's intention to

continue its efforts to reconcile the Georgian and Abkhaz

positions and reach a mutually acceptable solution to the

conflict. LF

[03] GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER DENIES DELAYING VISA REGIME WITH

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[04] ALBRIGHT TO SOUND OUT MONTENEGRIN LEADER ON ELECTIONS...

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will ask Montenegrin

President Milo Djukanovic in Rome on 1 August to "think

carefully" about whether to participate in the 24 September

federal elections, Reuters reported. An unnamed "senior State

Department official" told the news agency that "even if

[Yugoslav President Slobodan] Milosevic is going to try to

manipulate the whole process, [the election is] a chance for

people to show what they think." Speaking to reporters en

route to Rome, Albright said: "We're generally concerned

about what Milosevic may be up to. The fact that he

rejiggered the constitution in order to be able to have a

more concentrated authoritarian power in what could be a

phony election process, which affects Montenegro." Several

Montenegrin leaders have made it clear that the governing

coalition will not take part in the vote under Milosevic's

new electoral legislation (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 31 July

2000). PM

[05] ...CALLS ON SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO UNITE

Rome on 1 August that "it is very important for the

democratic opposition in Serbia to unite, to present a single

slate, and to participate in the elections. They need to

unite on a single candidate. That is a solution," Reuters

reported. She did not elaborate. Observers note that Albright

is not popular in Serbia and that she may refrain from making

specific recommendations in public lest they have an

unintended effect in Serbia. PM

[06] UN: KOSOVA RESIDENTS TO VOTE IN YUGOSLAV ELECTIONS

spokeswoman Susan Manuel told a news conference in Prishtina

on 31 July that "this remains Yugoslavia and you have the

right to participate in elections. We are working out a

policy on Kosovo's possible participation in elections." But

Oliver Ivanovic, who is a Serbian leader from northern

Mitrovica, argued that "we need more security and returns [of

Serbian refugees and displaced persons], but not elections,"

AP reported. Ivanovic was in Prishtina to discuss ways of

speeding up the return of Serbs to Kosova with UN and KFOR

officials. Ivanovic stressed that "this is a crucial moment.

We have to coordinate all things [connected with the returns]

with the United Nations Mission in Kosovo, NATO, and perhaps

the Albanian community." Ivanovic has generally shunned UN-

and NATO-sponsored meetings in Prishtina. PM

[07] YUGOSLAV COMMANDER: MONTENEGRO 'UNDERMINING' ARMY

Nebojsa Pavkovic, who heads the army General Staff, said that

the army is ready to return to Kosova and "settle scores

with" all paramilitary and "terrorist" organizations there,

"Vesti" reported on 1 August. He added that "following NATO's

aggression against Yugoslavia..., the world policeman...must

now contend with [unspecified] significant changes [to NATO's

disadvantage] in world and regional affairs and within the

international community." Pavkovic also said that the

Montenegrin leadership has repeatedly "undermined the

national defense system...and most energetically attacked the

Yugoslav Army," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 25 July 2000). PM

[08] 'SILLY SEASON' COMES TO SERBIA...

Minister Goran Matic said in Belgrade on 31 July that "our

police are capable of protecting our state" and to that end

four Dutch males were recently arrested, London's "Financial

Times" reported. Matic, who is known for his outspoken anti-

Western remarks, claimed that the four are "members of the

NATO military-intelligence community" who were sent into

Serbia via Montenegro to deliver a "Serbian head" to U.S.

President Bill Clinton at the recent Okinawa summit, London's

"The Guardian" reported. Matic showed reporters a video of

the men "confessing" that they are bounty-hunters who wanted

to "put [Milosevic] in a ski box and drive him out of the

country." Matic added that the British SAS "is training

Montenegrin special units," Reuters reported. Observers note

that the Belgrade regime periodically announces that it has

"uncovered" alleged foreign-based conspiracies (see "RFE/RL

Balkan Report," 8 February 2000). PM

[09] ...WHILE DUTCH REMAIN BAFFLED BY SERBIAN CHARGES

embassy spokesman said in Belgrade on 31 July that the

Serbian authorities have not informed the embassy about the

four men, Reuters reported. In The Hague, a Foreign Ministry

spokesman denied any firm knowledge of the case, "The

Guardian" added. An unidentified Dutch "government source"

told the London daily that the four could be tourists whom

the Belgrade authorities have decided to exploit for

propaganda purposes. PM

[10] SLOVENIAN PRIME MINISTER SET TO LAUNCH PARTY

Andrej Bajuk told a press conference in Ljubljana that his

New Slovenia/NSI/People's Christian Party will hold its

founding meeting on 11 August, "Delo" reported on 1 August

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 July 2000). Foreign Minister Lojze

Peterle will also be a founding member of New Slovenia. Bajuk

stressed that the country needs a new moderate party that is

credible and reliable, "Dnevnik" reported. Bajuk decided to

found the center-right party after differences emerged

recently between him and his People's Party (SLS/SKD) over a

new election law. Parliamentary elections will take place on

15 October. New Slovenia, the People's Party, the

conservative Social Democrats, and the small National Party

are led primarily by people with family roots in the anti-

communist Domobranci (Home Guards) of World War II, including

Bajuk, Peterle, and Social Democratic leader Janez Jansa. The

center-left parties are led primarily by people from the

former communist nomenklatura. PM

[11] SLOVENIAN NATIONAL BANK CHIEF TO STAY OUT OF POLITICS

Arhar, who is governor of the National Bank, has turned down

an offer from the People's Party for an unspecified top

position in that party, "Delo" reported on 1 August. Arhar

said that he is "grateful" for the offer but will stay with

the National Bank. PM

[12] CROATS BACK EU MEMBERSHIP

Integration has published the results of a poll indicating

that more than 80 percent of respondents have a positive view

of the EU and that 77 percent favor Croatia's joining that

body, AP reported. PM

[13] NATO NAMES NEW BOSNIAN COMMANDER

General Michael L. Dodson to replace General Ronald E. Adams

in command of SFOR troops in Bosnia, AP reported from

Brussels on 1 August. PM

[14] BOSNIAN SERB HARD-LINE PARTY PICKS CANDIDATE

committee of Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party

voted in Bijeljina on 31 July to nominate Republika Srpska

Vice President Mirko Sarovic for the presidency of the

Bosnian Serb entity, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported.

PM

[15] ROMANIA'S LIBERALS, PEASANTISTS, EXCHANGE MUTUAL

"The National Liberal Party (PNL) has

placed itself outside the ranks of the Democratic

Convention of Romania (CDR)," National Peasant Party

Christian Democratic (PNTCD) Chairman Ion Diaconescu told

journalists after meeting with PNL negotiators on 31 July.

Diaconescu said the PNTCD will "no longer bear" PNL insults

directed against it. Diaconescu and the leaders of the two

ecologist parties in the CDR announced they are starting

negotiations with the Union of Rightist Forces (UFD) and

the Christian Democratic National Alliance over enlarging

the CDR. But PNL First Deputy Chairman Valeriu Stoica said

it is the PNTCD that has "placed itself outside the CDR,"

and he warned that if a decision is taken on the CDR's

future without the agreement of the PNL, that move can be

contested in court. Stoica said the three parties "are

free" to set up another alliance but such a grouping will

have to run under another name. MS

[16] ...WHILE NEW RIGHTIST ALLIANCE STILL FACES PROBLEMS

Weber, leader of the Ecologist Party (PER), said after the

31 July meeting that his formation refuses to merge with

the Ecologist Federation, Mediafax reported. The PNTCD has

been urging such a move to reduce the electoral hurdle that

the alliance will have to pass to gain parliamentary

representation. Weber said, however, that the PER cannot

merge "with a party of former [secret police] informers."

Meanwhile, UFD co-chairman Adrian Iorgulescu and Diaconescu

have concluded a "protocol of cooperation" to set up a new

rightist alliance, but Iorgulescu said the agreement

necessitates the "restructuring" of the CDR. He said the

UFD will "by no means return to the same CDR it has left,"

and he suggested that the new alliance change its name to

either the Coalition of the Romanian Right or the Coalition

of the Romanian Center-Right, both of which would allow it

to keep the CDR acronym. MS

[17] UKRAINE TO RESUME GAS DELIVERIES TO BULGARIA

Ukrainian Premier Viktor Yushchenko and his Bulgarian

counterpart, Ivan Kostov, told journalists in Sofia on 28

July that Ukraine will deliver to Bulgaria 578 million

cubic meters of natural gas in exchange for Bulgaria's part

in laying pipelines in the 1970s, AP reported. Deliveries

of natural gas started in 1998 but were interrupted earlier

this year after Russia objected to Ukraine's re-exporting

of those supplies. Reuters had earlier quoted Yushchenko as

saying the differences with Moscow over the matter have

been settled and the supplies will be resumed in August.

Yushchenko also met President Petar Stoyanov, who told

journalists that Ukraine and Bulgaria are "not competitors"

but "partners" who "share the same Euro-Atlantic

integration objectives." MS

[C] END NOTE

[18] STRANGE BEDFELLOWS IN LITHUANIA

An unusual electoral arrangement between Lithuania's

largest left-of-center party and a small one on the far right

raises questions about what the former group intends to do if

it wins the election later this fall and what the latter

hopes to achieve.

This move appears likely to raise the specter both in

Lithuania and abroad that the coalition of forces operating

in one Lithuanian city, which are often thought to be far

apart, may now spread to the country as a whole, a

development that could fundamentally change Lithuania's

domestic arrangements and reorient its foreign policy goals.

Arturas Paulauskas, the leader of the leftist New Union-

Social Liberal Party which is widely expected to win the

October parliamentary elections, announced last week that his

party will not field a candidate in a district in Kaunas

where that city's mayor and leader of the radical populist

Freedom Union Party Vytautas Sustauskas is running.

This is the second time that Paulauskas, who lost to

Valdas Adamkus in the presidential race two years ago, has

allied himself with Sustauskas, a man whose xenophobic views

and authoritarian approach would appear to put him completely

at odds with the left-of-center politics Paulauskas himself

has publicly espoused.

In April, Sustauskas became mayor of Kaunas when the

eight city council members from Paulauskas's party voted for

him. That arrangement struck many people at the time as

evidence of the possible emergence of an unusual coalition in

Lithuania's second-largest city which some have described as

red-brown: red because of Paulauskas' ties to the old

communist and security elites, and brown because of

Sustauskas' nationalist populism and the anti-Semitism of

some of his allies.

Such fears were fueled when the Kaunas city police

controlled by Sustauskas did nothing to stop a group of

rowdies widely believed to have ties to the mayor from

beating up student demonstrators against his rise to power

there, an action that has chilled political life in the pre-

war capital so thoroughly that there have been no marches or

demonstrations since that time.

But because Paulauskas continued to maintain his ties

with a number of centrist parties in the Lithuanian

parliament and because he continued to support Lithuanian

efforts to reintegrate into the West through eventual

membership in NATO and the EU, suspicions about the actions

of his party colleagues in Kaunas have receded into the

background.

Now, however, such suspicions appear certain to

increase, thus affecting Lithuanian politics both during the

campaign and afterward.

By making the deal with Sustauskas, Paulauskas has

effectively broken with the centrist parties with which he

had been allied. They are thus likely to be ever less certain

as to what he believes and thus ever less willing to

cooperate with him in the future. And at least some are

likely to ask why Paulauskas would be giving respectability

to someone like Sustauskas, whom they have shunned.

Several centrist political figures already have pointed

out the fact that Paulauskas could have helped their

candidates in the same way he is helping Sustauskas. Others

are now asking why the leadership of Paulauskas' party

includes some who worked against Lithuania's drive to recover

its independence. One of these--a failed candidate for the

Vilnius city council--was even given a prison sentence for

his role in the January 1991 events.

Such questions could further poison the upcoming

election campaign and, more serious, make the formation of a

new coalition government far more difficult after the votes

are counted. Indeed, it could force Paulauskas, whose party

leads the polls but is not expected to gain a clear majority

in the 141-seat national legislature, to seek the support of

or even build a coalition with right-wing groups like those

of Sustauskas.

In addition to giving Sustauskas a greater opportunity

to spread his views, any such arrangements could mean that

his opposition to foreign investment in Lithuania, to

spending the money that NATO membership will require, and to

the respect for civil rights that democracy requires would

affect Lithuanian policy and especially its relations with

the West.

That possibility is all the greater because Paulauskas

himself already took the lead in organizing opposition to a

major U.S. investment project in Lithuania and has raised

questions about defense spending.

For all these reasons, at least some in Lithuania and in

the West may conclude that Lithuania may be about to follow

the path of several other post-communist countries where

populists of the left and the right have linked up. They may

thus decide that Paulauskas and Sustauskas, as different as

they appear at first glance, are not really strange political

bedfellows after all.

01-08-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article