RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 145, 00-07-31

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 145, 31 July 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] NATO OFFICIAL WRAPS UP ARMENIA VISIT

[02] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES ENERGY NETWORK PRIVATIZATION

[03] LAWYER OF FORMER KARABAKH DEFENSE MINISTER THREATENED

[04] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION ADOPTS NEW ELECTION STATEMENT

[05] AZERBAIJAN RELEASES LAST ARMENIAN POWS

[06] RUSSIA, GEORGIA HOLD MORE TALKS ON CLOSURE OF BASES

[07] UN RENEWS MANDATE OF OBSERVERS IN GEORGIA

[08] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ PRESIDENTS DISCUSS POSSIBLE MEETING

[09] DESTRUCTION OF NUCLEAR TESTING RANGE IN KAZAKHSTAN COMPLETED

[10] CHINESE VICE PRESIDENT VISITS KAZAKHSTAN

[11] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT CONTINUES RUSSIAN VISIT

[12] TAJIK PRESIDENT AGAIN HIGHLIGHTS AFGHAN THREAT

[13] TURKMENISTAN'S PRESIDENT FIRES FOREIGN MINISTER

[14] UZBEKISTAN SOLICITS RUSSIAN AID TO EXTINGUISH CHEMICAL PLANT

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[15] KFOR BOOSTS SECURITY ON KOSOVA-PRESEVO BORDER

[16] PRESEVO ALBANIANS TO MIGRATE?

[17] SERBIAN OPPOSITION APPEALS TO MONTENEGRO

[18] MONTNEGRIN AUTHORITIES FIRM ON BOYCOTT

[19] MILOSEVIC'S PARTY GEARS UP FOR YUGOSLAV CAMPAIGN

[20] YUGOSLAV AIRFORCE LOOKING FOR 'SURGICAL STRIKE' CAPACITY?

[21] MONTENEGRO WARNS YUGOSLAV NAVY TRYING TO CREATE INCIDENT

[22] SYDNEY OLYMPICS TO BE YUGOSLAVIA'S LAST?

[23] CROATIAN PREMIER PLEDGES HELP FOR MOSTAR

[24] CROATIA'S IMPORTANT TOURIST INDUSTRY ON THE MEND

[25] HERZEGOVINIAN HDZ TO PRESS FOR 'NEW STATE STRUCTURE'

[26] BOSNIAN MUSLIMS DEMAND RIGHT TO GO HOME

[27] PETRITSCH SACKS TWO BOSNIAN MUSLIM OFFICIALS

[28] ALBANIA TO VOTE ON 1 OCTOBER

[29] ROMANIA'S LIBERALS SAY STOLOJAN AGREES TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

[30] HUNGARIAN PREMIER DROPS 'HEAVY HINTS' TO ROMANIA

[31] ROMANIAN NUCLEAR PLANT SWITCHED OFF OWING TO TECHNICAL

[32] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT MEETS PUTIN

[33] BULGARIAN PROSECUTOR-GENERAL'S APARTMENT BUGGED

[C] END NOTE

[34] A DIPLOMATIC SIGNAL

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] NATO OFFICIAL WRAPS UP ARMENIA VISIT

General for Political Issues Klaus Peter Kleiber held talks

in Yerevan on 28 July after talks with President Robert

Kocharian and Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, Armenian

agencies reported. Kleiber told journalists later that NATO

intends to strengthen its ties and cooperation with Armenia.

He said he discussed with Sarkisian plans for creating groups

of Armenian troops to participate in international

peacekeeping operations, according to Noyan Tapan. Kleiber

also said "there is some optimism" that a settlement of the

Karabakh conflict may soon be reached, adding that he

understands that Armenia "is doing its best to establish

peace" in the South Caucasus. LF

[02] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES ENERGY NETWORK PRIVATIZATION

Deputies voted late on 28 July in the

second and final reading to approve the government-proposed

bill on the privatization of four energy networks, RFE/RL's

Yerevan bureau reported. Last-minute efforts by the

opposition to block the bill proved fruitless. The number of

deputies voting for and against the bill was virtually the

same as in the first reading two days earlier (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 27 July 2000). LF

[03] LAWYER OF FORMER KARABAKH DEFENSE MINISTER THREATENED

have begun round-the-clock surveillance of the Yerevan

apartment of Zhudeks Shakarian, the lawyer of former Karabakh

Defense Minister Samvel Babayan, after an anonymous telephone

caller threatened violence against his daughter and

grandchild, Noyan Tapan and "Hayastani Hanrapetutiun"

reported on 29 July. The criminal case against Babayan, who

is accused of masterminding the 22 March attempt to

assassinate Arkadii Ghukasian, president of the unrecognized

Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, is to be submitted to the court on

31 July. LF

[04] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION ADOPTS NEW ELECTION STATEMENT

point statement in Baku on 28 July, Turan reported. They

pledged to continue their efforts to persuade the authorities

to amend the existing election legislation in line with OSCE

recommendations; to boycott the 5 November parliamentary poll

if such amendments are not made; and to cooperate more

closely with electoral commissions to preclude falsification

of the poll outcome. Also on 28 July, one of the six

opposition representatives on the 18-member Central Electoral

Commission told Turan they he and his colleagues will abandon

their boycott of the commission's work in order 'to avoid

possible legislative violations." The same day, 16 opposition

parties proposed convening a joint rally on 5 August to

pressure the authorities to ensure the poll is fair and to

annul that article of the law that excludes parties not

formally registered six months before the announcement of the

poll date, AP reported. LF

[05] AZERBAIJAN RELEASES LAST ARMENIAN POWS

Security Ministry said on 28 July that the last two Armenian

prisoners of war being held in Azerbaijan have been released,

Turan and Reuters reported. Armenia has freed nine

Azerbaijani prisoners in recent weeks (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"

19 and 24 July 2000). LF

[06] RUSSIA, GEORGIA HOLD MORE TALKS ON CLOSURE OF BASES

third round of inter-governmental talks in Moscow on 29 July,

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov pledged that

Russia will begin withdrawing troops and military hardware

from its base at Vaziani, near Tbilisi, on 1 August in

compliance with an agreement signed in Istanbul last year,

Reuters and ITAR-TASS reported. The withdrawal will leave a

maximum of 153 tanks, 241 armored vehicles, and 140 artillery

systems in Georgia by the end of the year. Klebanov also said

that the two sides also discussed the possible transformation

of the Russian military base in Gudauta, Abkhazia, into a

training and rehabilitation center for peacekeeping troops. A

decision on that issue will be made by 1 July 2001, Klebanov

said. LF

[07] UN RENEWS MANDATE OF OBSERVERS IN GEORGIA

Council on 28 July unanimously voted to extend for six

months, until 31 January 2001, the mandate of the 102-strong

UN observer force deployed in western Georgia, Reuters

reported. But at the same time, Security Council members

expressed concern at the lack of progress toward a political

settlement of the Abkhaz conflict. LF

[08] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ PRESIDENTS DISCUSS POSSIBLE MEETING

President Vladislav Ardzinba told journalists in Sukhum on 28

July that he has discussed by telephone with Georgian

President Eduard Shevardnadze the possibility of a face-to-

face meeting, but he did not say when such a meeting might

take place, AP reported. Shevardnadze had said on 24 July

that he is prepared to meet with Ardzinba (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 24 July 2000). The two men last met in 1997, when

Ardzinba travelled to Tbilisi with then Russian Foreign

Minister Yevgenii Primakov. Since the fall of that year,

Shevardnadze has consistently said that he would meet with

Ardzinba only to sign documents regulating specific aspects

of the Abkhaz conflict, LF

[09] DESTRUCTION OF NUCLEAR TESTING RANGE IN KAZAKHSTAN COMPLETED

Semipalatinsk nuclear testing range in eastern Kazakhstan

were blow up on 29 July, Reuters and Interfax reported. The

destruction marks the completion of a five-year U.S.-Kazakh

program, which was funded by the U.S., to destroy

Kazakhstan's nuclear testing potential after the country

acceded to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. Some

500 test explosions were conducted at Semipalatinsk between

1949 and 1989, leading to high levels of radiation and a

concomitant increase in the incidence of cancer and

congenital deformities among the local population. LF

[10] CHINESE VICE PRESIDENT VISITS KAZAKHSTAN

Astana on 28 July with Kazakhstan's Prime Minister

Qasymzhomart Toqaev to discuss economic cooperation and

combating terrorism and religious extremism, Reuters

reported. Kazakhstan offered to begin exporting electricity

to China and extended an invitation to Kazakhs in China to

settle in Kazakhstan. Toqaev told journalists both sides

positively assessed bilateral relations. He stressed the

importance to Kazakhstan's security of continued cooperation

with China. Meeting later that day in Astana, Hu and

Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbaev reaffirmed their

shared commitment to plans to build a 3,000-kilometer

pipeline to export oil from western Kazakhstan to China,

Reuters quoted Foreign Minister Yerlan Idrisov as saying (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 20 July 2000). LF

[11] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT CONTINUES RUSSIAN VISIT

July bestowed Kyrgyzstan's highest award on Russian Defense

Minister Igor Sergeev in acknowledgement of the Russian

military's assistance in expelling Islamist militants from

Kyrgyzstan last fall, ITAR-TASS reported. Akaev professed his

satisfaction with military cooperation with Russia both at

the bilateral level and within the framework of the CIS

Collective Security Treaty. Akaev also met the same day with

Russian Atomic Energy Minister Yevgenii Adamov to discuss the

possible production by enterprises subordinate to that

ministry of equipment to protect Kyrgyzstan's borders (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 23 June 2000). Akaev then flew to

Yekaterinburg for talks with Sverdlovsk Governor Eduard

Rossel on expanding bilateral trade and economic relations.

He also opened a Kyrgyz consulate in that Russian city. LF

[12] TAJIK PRESIDENT AGAIN HIGHLIGHTS AFGHAN THREAT

interview with "Narodnaya gazeta" on 28 July, Imomali

Rakhmonov warned that "as long as the conflict in Afghanistan

is not resolved, there can be no stable system of security in

Central Asia." Rakhmonov also stressed the importance to his

country of its "strategic partnership" with Russia, adding

that the two countries' political and economic interests

coincide in Central Asia and throughout the former USSR. LF

[13] TURKMENISTAN'S PRESIDENT FIRES FOREIGN MINISTER

Niyazov on 28 July dismissed Boris Shikhmuradov from his post

as foreign minister for "shortcomings and mismanagement,"

RFE/RL's Turkmen Service reported. Shikhmuradov's successor

is his first deputy, Batyr Berdyev, who had held that post

for less than one month. Shikhmuradov, whom one exiled former

Turkmen official has characterized as one of a very few

intelligent and capable Turkmen government officials, has

been appointed head of the Turkmen Institute of Sport and

Tourism and ambassador-at-large, according to Reuters (see

also "End Note" below). LF

[14] UZBEKISTAN SOLICITS RUSSIAN AID TO EXTINGUISH CHEMICAL PLANT

The Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations sent

fire-fighting equipment to Uzbekistan on 28 July in response

to a request from Tashkent to help douse a fire caused by the

ignition of gas tanks following an explosion at a chemical

plant in Karshi, southwest of Samarkand, the previous day,

dpa and ITAR-TASS reported. No details of casualties have

been released. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[15] KFOR BOOSTS SECURITY ON KOSOVA-PRESEVO BORDER

peacekeepers in Kosova have increased security along the

border between Kosova and southwestern Serbia "because of a

rise in violence in Serbia's Presevo Valley," Reuters

reported on 31 July. U.S. Captain Tom Hairgrove said that the

ethnic Albanian Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac Liberation

Army (UCPMB) has recently "been carrying out an increased

amount of patrolling" and taking mortars across the border

into Serbia. There has been "a general overall increase in

military operations in the area, all on [the Serbian] side of

the provincial boundary," he said. Hairgrove noted that he

can hear "gunfire on the other side of the ridge [in Serbia

and] explosions on the other side of the ridge. It would all

be a guess to what it was," he added. Serbian state-run media

have recently reported an increase in violence in the Presevo

valley. There is little information available from

independent sources on developments in the region. PM

[16] PRESEVO ALBANIANS TO MIGRATE?

Albanians from Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac said in a

statement in Prishtina on 29 July that repressive measures by

Serbian police and troops are increasing in the run-up to the

Yugoslav elections, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported.

The council warned that the Albanians may soon be left with

the choice of having either "to confront police violence and

abuse" or else to leave. The council did not specify where

the Albanians would go, but presumably it meant Kosova. The

council called for the "direct engagement of the

international community" to end tensions in the area. Reuters

reported on 31 July that local residents say they "would have

to flee" if the UCPMB were not present to protect them from

Serbian forces. PM

[17] SERBIAN OPPOSITION APPEALS TO MONTENEGRO

all leading Serbian opposition groups--except Vuk Draskovic's

Serbian Renewal Movement--agreed in Belgrade on 29 July that

they will take part in the 24 September elections on a joint

slate, including a joint candidate for president. It is not

yet clear who that person will be, but most media reports

suggest it will be the Democratic Party of Serbia's Vojislav

Kostunica, whom a recent poll suggested would win 42 percent

of the vote, compared with 28 percent for Yugoslav President

Slobodan Milosevic, Reuters reported. Kostunica stressed that

the opposition can win "only with a massive turnout by all

citizens," AP reported. Vladan Batic of the Alliance for

Change appealed to the Montenegrin leadership to give up

their plans to boycott the vote. "If we stay together, that

will be [Milosevic's] end. By toppling Milosevic, the entire

power structure will come down," he said in a message to

Podgorica. PM

[18] MONTNEGRIN AUTHORITIES FIRM ON BOYCOTT

Branko Lukovac has said the Montenegrin authorities will not

take part in the elections "under the existing conditions"

resulting from Milosevic's new electoral legislation,

Montena-fax reported on 30 July (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28

July 2000). In Podgorica the previous day, representatives of

Montenegro's two leading ethnic Albanian political parties--

the Democratic League and the Democratic Union of Albanians--

said in a statement that they will also boycott the

elections. But the pro-Milosevic Socialist People's Party

(SNP) of Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic said that it

will take part in the vote. The SNP endorsed the presidential

candidacy of Milosevic, whom the Socialist Party of Serbia

(SPS) nominated on 28 July. Representatives of the SNP and

the governing Democratic Party of Socialists will discuss the

elections in mid-August, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported on 31 July. PM

[19] MILOSEVIC'S PARTY GEARS UP FOR YUGOSLAV CAMPAIGN

Kikinda on 29 July, SPS General-Secretary Gorica Gajevic

called the Serbian opposition people "who ran away from the

defense of the country" during the 1999 conflict, when NATO

intervened to stop the crackdown in Kosova. The party accused

the opposition of trying to justify NATO's "crimes," RFE/RL's

South Slavic Service reported. She said that the elections

will be a "popular referendum for the defense of freedom and

national independence." PM

[20] YUGOSLAV AIRFORCE LOOKING FOR 'SURGICAL STRIKE' CAPACITY?

novosti" of 30 July that one lesson of the 1999 conflict may

be that Belgrade needs to upgrade its airforce so that it can

carry out "micro-surgical precision strikes against important

targets in neighboring countries." Such a capability by the

Yugoslav airforce would help deter the country's neighbors

from making their airspace and military facilities available

to NATO, according to Lazanski. PM

[21] MONTENEGRO WARNS YUGOSLAV NAVY TRYING TO CREATE INCIDENT

Montenegrin Interior Ministry said in a statement on 31 July

that a Yugoslav navy ship tried recently to "provoke an

incident at the sea" with an Italian craft and put the blame

for it on a Montenegrin police patrol boat, Montena-fax

reported. The previous day, the Yugoslav Navy said in a

statement that only the navy has the right to deal with

traffic across international borders at sea. PM

[22] SYDNEY OLYMPICS TO BE YUGOSLAVIA'S LAST?

heads the Montenegrin Olympic Committee, said in Podgorica on

30 July that Montenegro will soon seek approval from the

International Olympic Committee to participate in all games

after the 2000 Olympics as a separate team under its own flag

and not as part of a Yugoslav team, RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported. PM

[23] CROATIAN PREMIER PLEDGES HELP FOR MOSTAR

Muslim and Croatian communities in Mostar on 28 July. He

pledged that Croatia will work with the World Bank to help

restore the historical Mostar bridge, which Croatian gunners

destroyed in 1993. Racan also pledged help in cleaning up the

Neretva River, which flows through Herzegovina into Croatia

and the Adriatic. PM

[24] CROATIA'S IMPORTANT TOURIST INDUSTRY ON THE MEND

million tourists have visited Croatia so far during the 2000

tourist season, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 29

July. This is double the number reported in 1999, when the

conflict in Kosova prompted many foreign visitors to stay

away from the region. PM

[25] HERZEGOVINIAN HDZ TO PRESS FOR 'NEW STATE STRUCTURE'

Jelavic, who heads the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) in

Bosnia-Herzegovina, said in Mostar on 29 July that his party

considers the 1995 Dayton peace agreement outdated, RFE/RL's

South Slavic Service reported. He added that the HDZ will

work to "restructure" the state based on the recent

Constitutional Court ruling that Muslims, Serbs, and Croats

must be fully equal throughout the country. Observers note

that the HDZ has long sought to redivide Bosnia into separate

Muslim, Serbian, and Croatian entities. The international

community has made it clear repeatedly that it supports the

continuation of the Croatian-Muslim federation. PM

[26] BOSNIAN MUSLIMS DEMAND RIGHT TO GO HOME

displaced persons demonstrated in Tuzla on 29 July to be able

to go back to their homes in the Republika Srpska. Some of

the protesters told AP that they may use force in order to do

so. PM

[27] PETRITSCH SACKS TWO BOSNIAN MUSLIM OFFICIALS

international community's High Representative Wolfgang

Petritsch has sacked Bosnian Federal Agriculture Minister

Ahmed Smajic and tax administration chief Ramiz Dzaferovic

for "impeding reforms" in the economy. PM

[28] ALBANIA TO VOTE ON 1 OCTOBER

announced on 28 July that local elections will take place on

1 October. The ballot is widely seen as a barometer in the

run-up to the legislative and presidential elections expected

in 2001. PM

[29] ROMANIA'S LIBERALS SAY STOLOJAN AGREES TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

told the weekly "Ziarul financiar" on 30 July that former

Premier Theodor Stolojan has agreed to be the PNL's candidate

in the presidential elections. The next day, Romanian Radio

quoted Ionescu-Quintus as saying the PNL will participate in

a meeting scheduled for 31 July with the National Peasant

Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) but will "set a number of

conditions" for their cooperation, including the PNTCD's

ceasing to back incumbent Premier Mugur Isarescu for the

presidency. On 28 July, Senator Constantin Ticu Dumitrescu

said the political parties of the Democratic Convention of

Romania (CDR) can expect "quite a few surprises" if they do

not reach an agreement that satisfy the civic organizations

represented in the CDR. MS

[30] HUNGARIAN PREMIER DROPS 'HEAVY HINTS' TO ROMANIA

Hungary is backing Romania's accession to NATO, the further

expansion of the alliance "is not on the agenda" of the

organization at present, Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban told

the annual Balvanyos summer university at Baile Tusnad on 30

July. Only countries that are NATO members can convince other

members that the organization's expansion is important, Orban

said. He also said the 1996 elections in Romania marked a

"turning point" because after that date the "anti-Hungarian

atmosphere in Romania no longer originated from the

government itself." Orban said Hungary continues to regard

the Hungarian minority's demand for a state-financed

university offering Hungarian-language instruction as

legitimate. Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi, who also

attended the Balvanyos meeting, held informal talks on 28

July with his Romanian counterpart, Petre Roman in Sfintu

Gheorghe. MS

[31] ROMANIAN NUCLEAR PLANT SWITCHED OFF OWING TO TECHNICAL

The Cernavoda nuclear plant was switched off on 30

July to a "technical failure in the nuclear fuel loading

system," Romanian Television reported. Authorities said the

failure posed no danger to the population and that repairs

will last about one week. MS

[32] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT MEETS PUTIN

in Moscow on 28 July for an "informal meeting" with Russian

President Vladimir Putin, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported,

citing the Moldovan presidential office. At that meeting,

Lucinschi proposed that Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, and the

Council of Europe draw up a joint plan for the coordination

of the Russian troop withdrawal from the Transdniester.

Before his departure from Chisinau, Lucinschi had set up a

Commission for Coordinating State Policies in the

Transdniester. That body is headed by Vasile Sturza,

presidential representative to the negotiations with the

separatists, and includes several deputy ministers. The

decision to set up the commission comes on the heels of the

recent setting up of state committees in Russia and Ukraine

for advancing the Transdniester negotiations. MS

[33] BULGARIAN PROSECUTOR-GENERAL'S APARTMENT BUGGED

devices were discovered in the apartment of Nikola Filichev

on 28 July, BTA reported, citing the prosecutor-general's

press office. The office said that the devices were planted

by the Interior Ministry's Criminal Intelligence Service and

that the service's former chief, Colonel Svetozar Spasov, has

been detained, together with retired Colonel Plamen Arsov.

Spasov was deputy director of the National Service for

Organized Crime since he left the Criminal Intelligence

Service. However, Interior Minister Emanuil Yordanov was

cited on 29 July by AP as saying that the devices may have

been planted by the communist secret police before 1990. Four

other apartments in the same building, which houses mainly

foreign diplomats, were also found to be bugged, including

one now rented to a Socialist Party deputy and one to another

prosecutor. An investigation has been launched. MS

[C] END NOTE

[34] A DIPLOMATIC SIGNAL

Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov's decision to

dismiss his long-time foreign minister suggests that Ashgabat

may have decided to turn away from the West and back toward

Moscow.

Niyazov on 28 July fired Boris Shikhmuradov, who had

been his foreign minister since 1993. The Turkmen president

gave no reason for the firing, although a few days earlier he

had criticized Shikhmuradov, who is half Armenian, for a weak

knowledge of the country's national language.

But few observers believe that Shikhmuradov's linguistic

competence dictated his fate, and instead many see his

departure as a diplomatic signal of a fundamental shift in

Turkmenistan's foreign policy rather than a simple change of

leadership in the country's Foreign Ministry.

There are three reasons for drawing that conclusion.

First, Shikhmuradov himself had been a survivor. In a

government marked by frequent and often inexplicable changes

in ministerial portfolios, he had retained his position

longer than anyone else. His ability to survive for so long

in a regime where envy and suspicion play such an enormous

role among the entourage of Niyazov suggests he was removed

less for personal or domestic policy reasons than for foreign

policy ones.

Second, Shikhmuradov's successor is almost as different

a diplomat as could be imagined. Shikhmuradov, 50, is an

urbane English speaker who has extensive ties to Europe and

the U.S. and has promoted the idea of a trans-Caspian

pipeline to export Turkmenistan's natural gas to the West.

His replacement, on the other hand, is a career diplomat with

much closer ties to Moscow and to Tehran and to the pro-Iran

faction within the Turkmen political elite. Indeed, despite

his position as first deputy to Shikhmuradov, Batyr Berdyev

has played only a marginal role in pipeline talks.

Consequently, Berdyev's appointment gives Niyazov even

greater freedom of movement in the coming months, allowing

him to blame Shikhmuradov for past policies and offering the

chance to present a new face in talks with governments that

viewed Shikhmuradov as too pro-Western.

Third, Shikhmuradov's departure comes at a time when

Niyazov has appeared ever less happy with Western countries

and ever more interested in pursuing ties with Moscow,

Tehran, and Beijing. Niyazov has been increasingly upset by

U.S. and European criticism of Turkmenistan's human rights

record and his own dictatorial rule. He has indicated that he

expected greater Western "understanding" of his approach

because of Islamist threats and because of his country's

enormous gas reserves.

And he has been even more upset about what he sees as

the West's failure to deliver on pipeline plans. Earlier this

year, Niyazov rejected proposals by the Western consortium

created to undertake that project, one of whose members

subsequently quit. Other Western firms are now also leaving

Ashgabat.

At the same time, Niyazov has found a greater

understanding for his less than democratic approach from

governments in Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing and a greater

willingness in all three places to purchase Turkmenistan's

natural gas and thus provide him with the earnings he needs

to keep his government in place.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Central

Asia a few weeks ago, for example, he expressed his

understanding of what he said was the tough approach the

Central Asian regimes had taken to combat Islamic

fundamentalism and terrorism.

Other Central Asian leaders quickly indicated their

support for Putin's approach, thus tilting away from the West

and toward Moscow. Now, Turkmenistan has done the same thing,

not only sacking a pro-Western official but restarting gas

deliveries to the Russian Federation as well. Moreover, in

recent months, Ashgabat has stepped up its diplomatic and

economic contacts with Iran and China in yet another

indication of Niyazov's unhappiness with the West and his

willingness to cooperate with regimes that his earlier

foreign policy approach had precluded.

That shift in Ashgabat appears to have cost Shikhmuradov

his job. But because his dismissal is part of a broader sea

change across the Central Asian region, it may also be a

diplomatic signal pointing to changes far beyond the borders

of Turkmenistan.

31-07-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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