RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 91, 00-05-11

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 91, 11 May 2000 Caucasus Report," Vol. 3, No. 16, 21 April

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT MAJORITY AT ODDS OVER CANDIDATE FOR

[02] ...WHILE WAR VETERANS DISAGREE OVER IMPEACHMENT

[03] COUNTERWEIGHT TO ARMENIAN VETERANS' UNION FORMED

[04] AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA, TURKEY SIGN KEY PIPELINE AGREEMENT

[05] AZERBAIJANI WOMEN ARRESTED IN BAKU PROTEST DEMO

[06] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT ENDORSES MINISTER OF STATE

[07] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT PROPOSES CREATING NEW GOVERNMENT POST...

[08] ...AND INCREASED GOVERNMENT LIAISON WITH MEDIA

[09] KAZAKHSTAN OFFSHORE OIL-FILED CONTAINS 'MAJOR RESERVES'

[10] TAJIKISTAN REGISTERS INCREASE IN DRUG-TRAFFICKING

[11] U.S. WARNS TURKMENISTAN OVER PLANNED GAS PIPELINE

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[12] KOSOVARS SET TO POSTPONE INDEPENDENCE?

[13] THACI SEEMS TO SAY 'YES'

[14] WHAT ROLE FOR SERBS?

[15] KOUCHNER HAILS 'HISTORIC AGREEMENT'

[16] SERBS, ALBANIANS STAGE PROTESTS

[17] OPPOSITION RALLIES IN SERBIA

[18] MORE TROUBLE IN THE OFFING IN SERBIA?

[19] REGIME STEPS UP PRESSURE IN MONTENEGRO

[20] CROATIA JOINS PARTNERSHIP FOR PEACE

[21] RIGHTISTS DEMONSTRATE IN SPLIT

[22] JOINT EDUCATION PACT FOR BOSNIA

[23] ROMANIAN MONEY-LAUNDERING INVESTIGATION PROMPTS

[24] ...AS FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER LIKELY TO BE DRAWN IN

[25] MOLDOVAN PARTIES BACK EU INTEGRATION PROCESS

[26] BULGARIAN COURT POSTPONES HEARING ON BALKAN AIR STRIKE

[C] END NOTE

[27] ARMENIA'S GROWING PAINS OF DEMOCRACY

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT MAJORITY AT ODDS OVER CANDIDATE FOR

Ongoing consultations between the Republican Party

of Armenia (HHK) and the People's Party of Armenia (HZhK),

which together form the Miasnutiun majority parliamentary

faction, have not yet yielded an agreement on the bloc's

candidate to head the new government, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau

reported on 10 May. The HZhK reportedly objects to the HHK's

proposed candidate, its chairman Andranik Markarian. But

parliamentary speaker Armen Khachatrian denied on 10 May that

Miasnutiun is on the verge of splitting, according to

Armenpress. He told journalists that both the HZhK and the

HHK agree that Miasnutiun should nominate the new premier. LF

[02] ...WHILE WAR VETERANS DISAGREE OVER IMPEACHMENT

Yerkrapah Union of Veterans of the Karabakh war, which is

aligned with the HHK, is divided over whether to push for

President Robert Kocharian's impeachment, Noyan Tapan and

RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 10 May. Angered by

Kocharian's 2 May dismissal of Premier Aram Sargsian, some

Yerkrapah members still reject any participation in

discussions with the president on the composition of the new

cabinet and have called for Kocharian's impeachment.

Yerkrapah leader General Manvel Grigorian, however, whom

Kocharian promoted in March to deputy defense minister, is

said to oppose any "drastic steps" (see also "End Note"

below). LF

[03] COUNTERWEIGHT TO ARMENIAN VETERANS' UNION FORMED

organization representing Karabakh war veterans was

established on 9 May, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau and Noyan Tapan

reported on 10 and 11 May. Named Veterans of the Liberation

Struggle, the new body is headed by General Arkadii Ter-

Tadevossian, one of the commanders of Armenian forces during

the Karabakh war, and includes several former militias who

participated in that fighting. Ter-Tadevossian on 9 May

condemned as inappropriate Yerkrapah's involvement in

Armenian domestic politics. But at the same time he stressed

that the new union is not an opponent of Yerkrapah, whose

members he referred to as "our brothers." Prominent Yerkrapah

member Ruben Gevorgian on 10 May condemned the new union,

saying that Ter-Tadevossian created it on orders from the

president. LF

[04] AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA, TURKEY SIGN KEY PIPELINE AGREEMENT

and Turkey signed an agreement in Istanbul late on 9 May on

Azerbaijan's legal obligations as one of the countries that

the planned Baku-Ceyhan oil export pipeline will transit,

according to a Cambridge Energy Research Associates press

release circulated by Groong. That agreement, which

participants at the signing ceremony termed "historic,"

completes the legal framework for the project and thus paves

the way for creation of a "sponsors' group" that will seek

funding for its implementation. The total cost of the 1730

kilometer pipeline is estimated at $2.4-3 billion.

Construction is planned to be completed in 2004-2005.

Speaking in Istanbul on 10 May, U.S. presidential adviser for

the Caspian John Wolf, who attended the 9 May signing

ceremony, said the U.S. would welcome Russian participation

in the Baku-Ceyhan project, ITAR-TASS reported. LF

[05] AZERBAIJANI WOMEN ARRESTED IN BAKU PROTEST DEMO

women staged an unsanctioned march through Baku on 10 May,

banging saucepans to underscore their demand for greater

employment opportunities for women and an increase in family

allowances. They also demanded the resignation of President

Heidar Aliev, whom they accused of suppressing dissent. The

protest was timed to coincide with Aliev's 77th birthday.

Police detained some 35 demonstrators outside the parliament

building but later released all but nine or 10 of them. LF

[06] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT ENDORSES MINISTER OF STATE

156 to nine, deputies on 11 May approved the candidacy of Gia

Arsenishvili for the post of minister of state in the next

government, Caucasus Press reported. Most members of the

second-largest Revival faction abstained from the vote.

Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze had proposed the

candidacy of Arsenishvili, a former mathematics professor and

governor of Kakheti (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 May 2000). LF

[07] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT PROPOSES CREATING NEW GOVERNMENT POST...

amended to include the new post of minister-commissioner,

Caucasus Press reported on 10 May. That minister would be

charged by the president with special duties and would

initially focus on the search for a solution to the conflicts

in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Observers have identified as

possible candidates for that position Georgia's ambassador to

the UN, Petre Chkheidze, and outgoing Minister of State Vazha

Lortkipanidze. On 11 May the parliament is to consider

Shevardnadze's proposal to reduce the number of ministries

from 22 to 19 by amalgamating the Ministries of Transport and

Communications as well as the Ministries of Trade and

Economy. The Ministry of Foreign Economic relations will be

abolished and its functions divided between the Foreign

Ministry and the new Ministry for Trade and the Economy. The

streamlining is intended to reduce the size of the state

bureaucracy. LF

[08] ...AND INCREASED GOVERNMENT LIAISON WITH MEDIA

has also proposed that each ministry introduce the post of

deputy minister with responsibility for liaising with the

media, Caucasus Press reported on 10 May, citing "Rezonansi."

LF

[09] KAZAKHSTAN OFFSHORE OIL-FILED CONTAINS 'MAJOR RESERVES'

May in the western port of Atyrau that the first test well

drilled by the Offshore Kazakhstan International Operating

Company (OKIOC) at the East Kashagan off-shore Caspian oil

field indicates that structure contains "big deposits of

oil," Reuters reported. Toqaev said it is "too early" to

mention a specific figure. But experts believe East Kashagan,

which lies in shallow waters close to the northern shore of

the Caspian, may contain up to 4 billion tons of crude. LF

[10] TAJIKISTAN REGISTERS INCREASE IN DRUG-TRAFFICKING

drug smugglers were intercepted and apprehended in Tajikistan

in 1998, an increase of one-third over the previous year,

ITAR-TASS reported on 10 May. citing a report compiled by the

national agency for drug control. The number of women engaged

in drug-trafficking is also rising: women accounted for one-

fifth of those convicted for peddling drugs in 1999. That

report also registered an increase in drug addition,

especially among young people. Seventy-five percent of

registered addicts in Tajikistan are under 30, according to

"Nezavisimaya gazeta" of 6 May. LF

[11] U.S. WARNS TURKMENISTAN OVER PLANNED GAS PIPELINE

presidential adviser for the Caspian John Wolf warned that

Turkmenistan may lose the Turkish gas market unless it makes

a swift and firm commitment to the proposed Trans-Caspian gas

pipeline, the "Wall Street Journal" reported on 11 May.

Turkmenistan's President Saparmurat Niyazov has delayed doing

so because of disagreements with the consortium created to

manage that project and with Azerbaijan over the amount of

Azerbaijani gas that would be exported to Turkey via that

pipeline (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 and 23 March 2000). LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[12] KOSOVARS SET TO POSTPONE INDEPENDENCE?

the OSCE's chief Balkan envoy, told Reuters in Vienna on 10

May that Kosova's ethnic Albanian political leaders

understand that the international community will not agree to

their demand for independence at this time. He added that the

Kosovars also recognize the need for an interim political

settlement to be worked out soon in order to reduce tensions

in the province. Rohan stressed that the Albanians have made

an "important concession" in agreeing to "postpone their

desire for a swift, final settlement" (see "RFE/RL South

Slavic Report," 27 April and 4 May 2000). PM

[13] THACI SEEMS TO SAY 'YES'

the former Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) and is now one of the

province's top politicians, told Vienna's "Die Presse" of 11

May that an "independent Kosova is important for the

stability of the Balkans." He added, however, that the time

for independence has not yet arrived: "Independence will come

once the Kosovars have decided on it and we have convinced

the world" of the need for it. For now, he said, his priority

is that Kosova remains at peace and that free local elections

will take place, probably in the fall. He urged local Serbs

to take part in the registration process leading up to the

elections, saying that they will not have a voice in the

province's future if they do not. Thaci dismissed as

unfounded Serbian fears that many illegal immigrants from

Albania will try to vote in the elections. The former UCK

leader said that he is more worried that Yugoslav President

Slobodan Milosevic will send hard-liners and agents into

Kosova to disrupt the ballot. PM

[14] WHAT ROLE FOR SERBS?

that representatives of the Serbian minority will join talks

on an interim settlement once they realize that they will

"have no say in the matter" if they boycott the talks. The

negotiations will involve regional and international experts

and take place in Kosova. Rohan stressed that he does not

envisage "another Rambouillet." By this, he presumably means

that he does not want a media spectacle with political

grandstanding by some of the participants, as was the case

with the 1999 Rambouillet talks. PM

[15] KOUCHNER HAILS 'HISTORIC AGREEMENT'

heads the UN's civilian administration in Kosova, said in

Prishtina on 10 May that Albanian and Serbian members of his

interim council issued a "historic" statement condemning

crimes committed against the other ethnic group and appealing

to all people to shun violence. He called the session "the

most important meeting we have had" since the council was

formed several months ago, Reuters reported. The council

called for the release of the perhaps 1,200 ethnic Albanians

being held in Serbian jails. Its statement did not include an

appeal to ethnic Albanians to help clarify the fate of the

perhaps 900 Serbs and other non-Albanians classified as

missing, Reuters added. PM

[16] SERBS, ALBANIANS STAGE PROTESTS

missing Kosova Serbs demonstrated in Belgrade on 10 May to

demand that the international community and the Serbian

authorities help clarify the fate of their loved ones. Ranko

Djinovic, who heads the organization Families of the

Kidnapped, said that a "conspiracy of silence" by the

foreigners and Serbian authorities alike has prevented the

relatives from finding out the truth. Meanwhile in the

Kosovar town of Istog, some 2,000 ethnic Albanians

demonstrated against plans by Kosova Serbs and the

international community to return Serbian refugees to the

province (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 2000). Spokesmen said

that the Serbs will not be welcome until all ethnic Albanians

are freed from Serbian jails and until additional,

unspecified conditions are met, Reuters reported. PM

[17] OPPOSITION RALLIES IN SERBIA

of Milosevic gathered in Kragujevac and an additional 2,000

in Cacak to protest the regime's recent moves to block a

major protest in Pozarevac (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 May

2000). Opposition leaders have called a rally in Belgrade for

15 May. Zoran Djindjic and other opposition leaders noted

that the regime was able to draw only about 150 supporters

for its own rally in Pozarevac, which is the home town of the

Milosevic family, Reuters reported. Several opposition

leaders condemned recent remarks by Milosevic referring to

the opposition as "traitors, lackeys, and blood-covered

collaborators of the [NATO] occupiers" of Kosova. PM

[18] MORE TROUBLE IN THE OFFING IN SERBIA?

coordinator of the G-17 group of economists, said in

Kragujevac that he fears that the regime is preparing to

declare a state of emergency, "Danas" reported on 11 May. He

called "unprecedented" the combination of repressive means

used to prevent the demonstration in Pozarevac. Meanwhile in

Belgrade, a lawyer for non-regime journalist Miroslav

Filipovic said on 10 May that his client has been arrested

and may have to appear before a military court in Nis on

charges of "criminal espionage" and "undermining the national

defense system," Reuters reported. PM

[19] REGIME STEPS UP PRESSURE IN MONTENEGRO

command in Montenegro issued a statement in Podgorica on 10

May calling on the government to "react" to a recent report

in the London-based daily "Independent" to the effect that

the government has trained an elite unit of snipers to

"liquidate army officers," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported. Elsewhere, the pro-Milosevic Socialist People's

Party filed legal charges against Prime Minister Filip

Vujanovic and two cabinet ministers for abuse of office,

"Danas" reported. PM

[20] CROATIA JOINS PARTNERSHIP FOR PEACE

Lord Robertson and Croatian Prime Minister Ivica Racan

announced in Brussels on 10 May that Croatia will officially

join NATO's Partnership for Peace program in Florence later

in May. Robertson said that Croatia's recent elections showed

that the country is ready to take "its place in the Euro-

Atlantic family," Reuters reported. Racan emphasized that

joining the NATO program will increase the chances that his

country will receive additional foreign investments. Anton

Tus, who is a retired Croatian air force general and a well-

known military affairs commentator, told "Jutarnji list" of

11 May that the Croatian military has nearly met NATO

requirements for membership as far as its personnel are

concerned but that its equipment is far from up to the task.

Tus predicted that Croatia will join the alliance in 2005. PM

[21] RIGHTISTS DEMONSTRATE IN SPLIT

1990-1995 conflict demonstrated in Split on 10 May to protest

the government's plans to cooperate with the Hague-based war

crimes tribunal, "Jutarnji list" reported. PM

[22] JOINT EDUCATION PACT FOR BOSNIA

Republika Srpska and the mainly Croatian and Muslim

federation signed an agreement in Sarajevo on 10 May to

provide for a unified educational policy throughout Bosnia.

Textbooks will teach a common heritage for all Bosnians and

use both the Latin and Cyrillic alphabets, "Oslobodjenje"

reported. The two sides worked out the program under the

sponsorship of the international community's chief

representative's office and of the Council of Europe. PM

[23] ROMANIAN MONEY-LAUNDERING INVESTIGATION PROMPTS

As French investigators began

questioning witnesses in Bucharest, the ongoing money-

laundering scandal in Romania (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 and

9 May 2000) has prompted contradictory statements from

former officials, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. At

the center of the affair is a French-Romanian citizen.

Party of Social Democracy (PDSR) in Romania Chairman Ion

Iliescu denied that Adrian Costea had been issued a

diplomatic passport on the orders of the presidential

office at the time Iliescu was president. Iliescu added

that Costea had "never had an official status" in the

presidential office, either. He stressed that the scandal

was a "diversion" aimed at "keeping people away from the

ballot" in next month's local elections. Also on 10 May,

Alliance for Romania (APR) Chairman Teodor Melescanu said

Costea had been issued the passport on the orders of the

presidential office . On 9 May the Foreign Ministry ordered

the withdrawal of the diplomatic passport and fired the

official currently in charge of issuing such documents. MS

[24] ...AS FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER LIKELY TO BE DRAWN IN

spokesman Marian Enache on 10 May said Melescanu has "so

far" received no summons to testify in the investigation.

Enache avoided answering questions on whether Costea had

been one of the party's main financial sponsors in 1997.

The allegation was made by former APR Secretary-General

Mircea Osache, but Enache said the APR "has no documents"

to confirm such had been the case. Paul Dobrescu, who is

now APR secretary-general, said "it cannot be ruled out"

that Costea was "among the APR sponsors" in 1997. At that

time, he added, the formation was witnessing "a wave of

sympathy." MS

[25] MOLDOVAN PARTIES BACK EU INTEGRATION PROCESS

Moldova's 28 registered political parties have signed a

declaration in support of the country's integration into

the EU, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported on 10 May. The

declaration defines EU integration as "a fundamental

national strategic objective." The parties pledged to

cooperate in harmonizing legislation with that of the union

and called for starting negotiations on obtaining the

status of an associate member. On 1 July 1998 Moldova

signed an agreement of "partnership and cooperation" with

the union. The signatories also call on the EU to assist

Moldova in obtaining full membership in the Southeast

European Stability Pact. MS

[26] BULGARIAN COURT POSTPONES HEARING ON BALKAN AIR STRIKE

court in Sofia on 10 May postponed hearings on the labor

dispute that involves striking pilots from the Balkan

Airlines national carrier and the company's management. The

court accepted the pilots' request to delay the debate till

22 May. Prime Minster Ivan Kostov the same day threatened to

declare Balkan Airlines insolvent if the labor conflict is

not resolved, Reuters and AP reported. MS

[C] END NOTE

[27] ARMENIA'S GROWING PAINS OF DEMOCRACY

The political tensions brewing in Armenia over the past

few months between President Robert Kocharian and his

parliamentary opponents culminated in the 2 May dismissal of

Prime Minister Aram Sargsian and Defense Minister Vagharshak

Harutiunian. The president is now moving to reassert control

over a divided parliament as he faces the challenges of

negotiating an end to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and

overcoming corruption and economic malaise.

Having ended the constant bickering with a politically

immature prime minister whose sole claim to political office

was his appeal as the brother of slain Premier Vazgen

Sargsian, Kocharian is now exploiting growing splits within

the parliamentary Unity bloc and co-opting the Yerkrapah

Union of Karabakh veterans. Assuming the post of premier in

the wake of the 27 October attack on the parliament, Sargsian

became embroiled in a series of political assaults on the

presidency, ranging from calls for impeachment to the

suspension of the government's privatization of the energy

distribution network. The six-month tenure of Prime Minister

Sargsian was most notable for its failure to address growing

wage and pension arrears and its legacy of outstanding socio-

economic problems to the next premier, who will be the

country's 10th since independence.

The president's parliamentary opponents are grouped

under a tenuous cooperative umbrella featuring the Unity

bloc, which has the largest group of deputies, and its

somewhat hesitant ally, the second-largest group in the

parliament, Stability (Kayunutiun). But there is neither

unity nor stability in the parliament. Seemingly influenced

by the partisanship of U.S. politics, Unity last month raised

the possibility of the president's impeachment, going as far

as to circulate an anonymous document listing a series of

alleged "offenses" committed by the president. While securing

the newspaper headlines of the day, this confrontational

tactic proved devoid of any substantive or even coherent

criticism of President Kocharian or his policies. Indeed,

this lack of substance is also fostering frustration with the

Unity leadership within Stability, which, as a collection of

independent and unaffiliated deputies, is looking for strong

political direction and clear strategy.

President Kocharian has taken sufficient measures to

preempt any serious threat from the "uniformed politicians"

of the Yerkrapah Union of Karabakh veterans, a potentially

pivotal combination of military thinking and politics founded

by slain leader Vazgen Sargsian. By appointing Yerkrapah

leader General Manvel Grigorian as deputy defense minister

and promoting a number of senior Yerkrapah figures, Kocharian

has in effect co-opted the union and prevented it from

assuming any threatening role. In a similar move in Nagorno

Karabakh, the unrecognized enclave's leader, Arkadii

Ghukasian, marginalized the organization there and

transformed it from a power base of the former Karabakh army

chief Samvel Babayan into a bastion of pro-government

support.

But this posturing of political elites has obscured a

much more significant development that threatens to mortgage

the country's future by ignoring its national interests.

Ironically, the Unity bloc, which was elected to lead the

country out of its economic crisis, was able to pass a

moratorium on the government's privatization effort--a key

precondition to the disbursement of a World Bank loan tranche

to be used in financing the budget deficit. The increasingly

common tendency to sacrifice prudent policy to the

requirements of partisan politics is a dangerous development

for a small landlocked country situated in an already

unstable region.

A second important factor obscured by political

infighting is the need for "good governance," specifically

political accountability and greater transparency. Its

absence is highlighted by the powerful former interior

minister, Vano Siradeghian, a fugitive facing charges ranging

from political assassinations and intimidation to corruption

and abuse of power. After the parliament lifted his immunity

for the second time, Siradeghian fled a trial that had

consistently come under pressure from various powerful

figures united by their fear of his testimony. The

Siradeghian case is more than a criminal case with political

implications. The prosecution of the former Ter-Petrossian

government minister is an important step in securing a

judicial system both viable and independent enough to

withstand any outside pressure.

Today's main political question is whether the president

will feel compelled to dissolve the parliament once he

becomes empowered to do so on 30 May, one year after it was

elected. Kocharian can either seek to maneuver between

divided political alliances, most notably between the Unity

bloc and Stability, or opt to dissolve the parliament and

call new elections. Regardless of his decision, however, an

inherent danger lies in the strengthening of the executive at

the expense of the legislature. The excesses of the Ter-

Petrossian administration that derived from this fundamental

imbalance may lead to the transformation of a country

experiencing the "growing pains" of democracy into one

suffering the "premature death" of democracy.

The author compiles the monthly newsletter "TransCaucasus: A

Chronology."

11-05-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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