RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 90, 00-05-10

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 90, 10 May 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] TASK FORCE ASSESSES U.S. AID TO ARMENIA

[02] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT MEETS U.S. KARABAKH MEDIATOR

[03] AZERBAIJANI TAX POLICE TARGET OPPOSITION JOURNAL

[04] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT PROPOSES 'NEUTRAL' CANDIDATE FOR STATE

[05] GEORGIAN CUSTOMS DENIES AFGHAN MISSILES STORED IN TBILISI

[06] KAZAKH OFFICIALS ASSESS THREAT FROM TALIBAN...

[07] ...AND FROM LOCUSTS

[08] TAJIKISTAN SEEK WAYS TO ALLEVIATE POVERTY

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] CROATIA TO JOIN KFOR

[10] RACAN SETS PRIORITIES

[11] ZAGREB POLICE ARREST RIGHTISTS AT ANTI-FASCIST RALLY

[12] PETRITSCH CALLS FOR END TO BOSNIA'S COMMUNIST-STYLE ECONOMY

[13] KLEIN CALLS FOR BOSNIA'S ADMISSION TO COUNCIL OF EUROPE

[14] SLOVENIA TO PRESS AHEAD WITH EU AGENDA

[15] SERBIAN OPPOSITION FORMS 'CRISIS COMMITTEE'

[16] KOSOVA GRENADE ATTACK WOUNDS SIX SERBS

[17] BULGARIA FINDS NO PROOF OF ANGOLA SANCTIONS INFRINGEMENT

[18] BULGARIA DISMISSES TOP ORGANIZED CRIME FIGHTER

[19] ISRAELI OWNER SUES STRIKING BULGARIAN PILOTS

[C] END NOTE

[20] WILL ALBANIA'S DEMOCRATS RETURN TO POWER?

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] TASK FORCE ASSESSES U.S. AID TO ARMENIA

task force created in January to improve the effectiveness of

U.S. economic aid to Armenia held its first meeting in

Yerevan on 8-9 May, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. U.S.

coordinator Bill Taylor and Armenian Finance and Economy

Minister Levon Barkhudarian both assessed the talks as

positive. Taylor told journalists that the two sides are

aware of the problems that need to be resolved, including

improving Armenia's investment climate and amending

restrictive tax and customs regulations. Taylor also said

that Armenia's "place and role" in the regional energy system

was discussed, but he gave no details. On 5 May, the head of

Armenia's Medzamor nuclear power station, Suren Azatian, told

Snark that Russia and Armenia intend to intensify their

cooperation in the sphere of nuclear energy, according to

Groong. LF

[02] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT MEETS U.S. KARABAKH MEDIATOR

Cavanaugh, the U.S. co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group,

which is mediating a solution of the Karabakh conflict, told

Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliev in Baku on 9 May that

ways of resolving that conflict will be among the topics

discussed during U.S. President Bill Clinton's visit to

Moscow next month, Reuters reported. Cavanaugh expressed the

hope that "real results in strengthening peace" can be

achieved in the next few months. Meeting on 8 May with

Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiev, Cavanaugh stressed

the need, which he said the Armenian government also

recognizes, for measures to strengthen the cease-fire along

the Line of Contact, which separates Armenian and Azerbaijani

forces, Turan reported. LF

[03] AZERBAIJANI TAX POLICE TARGET OPPOSITION JOURNAL

officials on 8 May sealed the Baku offices of the "Monitor

Weekly," accusing its editor of failing to present financial

data for the first three months of the year, AP and Interfax

reported. The journal's editor, Elmar Huseinov, said that

accusation was unfair as he has not yet received the required

audit from the tax directorate. He attributed the move to

official displeasure with the weekly's criticism of the

president. "Monitor Weekly" began publication one year ago.

Its predecessor, "Monitor," ceased publication in the summer

of 1998 after a Baku court fined it for insulting senior

officials. LF

[04] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT PROPOSES 'NEUTRAL' CANDIDATE FOR STATE

Eduard Shevardnadze has proposed Kakheti Governor

Gia Arsenishvili as minister of state, Caucasus Press

reported. Arsenishvili, 58, is a former mathematics

professor. whom observers consider a "compromise" candidate

selected in order to avoid having to choose between outgoing

State Minister Vazha Lortkipanidze and parliamentary speaker

Zurab Zhvania, who were considered rivals for the post (see

"RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 3, No. 17, 28 April 2000).

Mikhail Saakashvili, who heads the majority Union of Citizens

of Georgia parliamentary faction, characterized Arsenishvili

as "uncorrupted," adding that "he has all the preconditions

for conducting an independent economic policy." But

Saakashvili noted that Georgian "oligarchs" oppose

Arsenishvili and are lobbying for their own candidate, whom

he did not identify. LF

[05] GEORGIAN CUSTOMS DENIES AFGHAN MISSILES STORED IN TBILISI

media reports that S-3 and S-8 missiles supplied by the

Taliban to the Chechens are being stored at a customs

terminal in Tbilisi, ITAR-TASS and Caucasus Press reported on

9 May. The department says it fully controls all military

cargo transiting Georgia. LF

[06] KAZAKH OFFICIALS ASSESS THREAT FROM TALIBAN...

Bakhytzhan Ertaev, who is commander-in-chief of Kazakhstan's

armed forces, told RFE/RL's Kazakh Service on 10 May that the

Taliban pose a serious threat to Central Asia, including

Kazakhstan. But he added that Kazakhstan's armed forces are

able to repel any offensive from that quarter. Late last

month "Nezavisimaya gazeta" quoted Kazakhstan's Premier and

former Foreign Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev as saying that

"we are not saying that there is a direct threat to

Kazakhstan, but our geo-political situation is such that we

have to think about our army." Ertaev said that a reform of

the armed forces is under way. LF

[07] ...AND FROM LOCUSTS

Kazakhstan's Deputy Premier Daniyal Akhmetov warned that the

Agriculture Ministry currently has sufficient anti-locust

pesticides to protect only 4 million of the total 7 million

hectares of wheat fields threatened by a recurrence of last

summer's plague of locusts, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported

on 10 May. He said that the National Security Ministry is

investigating why most of the anti-locust pesticides

purchased are not suitable for use with Kazakh farm

machinery. Reuters on 13 April reported that the Kazakh

government had spent $18 million on such chemicals. LF

[08] TAJIKISTAN SEEK WAYS TO ALLEVIATE POVERTY

arrived in Dushanbe on 8 May to advise the Tajik government

on the drafting of a long-term program "On the strategy of

poverty alleviation and economic growth," Asia Plus-Blitz

reported. According to a report on poverty in Tajikistan

prepared by the World Bank and cited by "Nezavisimaya gazeta"

on 6 May, 96 percent of Tajikistan's population live below

the subsistence minimum, 80 percent in poverty, and one-third

in extreme poverty. State sector employees receive an average

monthly salary of $3-5, but some 20 percent of the population

are paid less than $1.075 a month. Most people blame the

catastrophic economic situation on government incompetence

and corruption. Almost 80 percent of the foreign credits

Tajikistan has received have been used to shore up the

country's balance of payments. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] CROATIA TO JOIN KFOR

weekly "Globus" that Croatian troops will soon join NATO

peacekeepers in Kosova, dpa reported from Zagreb on 10 May.

Racan is in Brussels negotiating Croatia's admission to the

Atlantic alliance's Partnership for Peace program. "Jutarnji

list" reported that Croatia's joining the program is expected

to be announced shortly (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 May 2000).

PM

[10] RACAN SETS PRIORITIES

Tribune" of 10 May that Croatia plans to apply for full NATO

membership as soon as it is accepted into Partnership for

Peace. Among his other priorities, he listed membership in

the EU, creation of an independent central bank, establishing

a safe environment for investment, and speeding up

transparent privatization. These tasks will be difficult to

achieve because the previous government left Croatia

internationally isolated and lagging behind other countries

in the transformation process. The prime minister warned that

Milosevic regime is in "its last stages, although I am unsure

it can end without conflict. [Milosevic] fought for a greater

Serbia; now he is fighting for survival.... There is the

danger of further conflict," Racan added. He feels that

"independence is likely for Montenegro. If this is what

people want, their wishes must be respected. If [Montenegro]

leaves [the Yugoslav federation], that will be the logical

end to the process of disintegration [of the former]

Yugoslavia." PM

[11] ZAGREB POLICE ARREST RIGHTISTS AT ANTI-FASCIST RALLY

detained seven persons on 9 May for attempting to provoke a

clash between large groups of anti-fascist demonstrators and

rightists who had come to heckle them. The size of the crowd

was about 2,000, AP reported. The anti-fascists staged their

annual protest to demand that the Square of Croatian Heroes

receive back its communist-era name, which was Square of the

Victims of Fascism. Since the victory of the center-left

coalition in January 2000, rightists have increasingly been

on the defensive (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 May 2000). PM

[12] PETRITSCH CALLS FOR END TO BOSNIA'S COMMUNIST-STYLE ECONOMY

chief representative in Bosnia, told the UN Security Council

in New York on 9 May that Bosnia's economy remains little

changed since communist times. He stressed that nationalist

parties run major industries for their own benefit, which is

"completely out of step with the market requirement of the

new millennium," Reuters reported. Petritsch noted that the

"payment bureau," through which all commercial and public

bank transfers must pass, is "a cash cow for nationalist

parties who exploit the system remorselessly." He added that

"such arrangements must not be tolerated. We have to start

protecting the economic sphere from this kind of old-style

intrusion." Petritsch nonetheless concluded that the

nationalist parties' grip on power is slowly weakening. Some

300,000 Bosnian citizens still remain abroad as refugees,

however, and an additional 800,000 are displaced persons

within Bosnia, he noted. PM

[13] KLEIN CALLS FOR BOSNIA'S ADMISSION TO COUNCIL OF EUROPE

Bosnia, said in Sarajevo on 9 May that the Council of Europe

should admit that republic to membership as soon as possible,

RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Klein warned that

Bosnia's continuing international isolation will only play

into the hands of extremists and nationalists. PM

[14] SLOVENIA TO PRESS AHEAD WITH EU AGENDA

Minister Igor Bavcar told a press conference in Ljubljana on

9 May that the country will stay on schedule for implementing

legislation aimed at speeding its admission to the EU despite

the change of government (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 14

April 2000). "We have established enough security mechanisms

to give the whole process [its own momentum]...which politics

cannot change," Reuters reported. PM

[15] SERBIAN OPPOSITION FORMS 'CRISIS COMMITTEE'

several opposition parties and the Otpor (Resistance) student

movement told AP in Belgrade on 10 May that they have agreed

to form a "crisis committee" to pool resources and form a

network of lawyers and activists. This task force will

organize protests and otherwise react swiftly against "every

harassment of pro-democracy forces," the officials added. The

Social Democrats' Slobodan Orlic argued that "all parties of

Serbia's united opposition have approved the formation of the

crisis committee. We should have done this a long time ago."

The move comes one day after the opposition's and Otpor's

decision to cancel a protest meeting in Pozarevac, which is

Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's home town and known

in opposition circles as "the forbidden city" (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 9 May 2000). Opposition leader Milan Protic said

that the rally organizers "did not want to put people in

danger," Reuters reported. Some opposition activists

nonetheless blocked the Belgrade-Pozarevac highway for one

hour, "Danas" reported. PM

[16] KOSOVA GRENADE ATTACK WOUNDS SIX SERBS

hurled a grenade into a Serbian-owned shop in Cernica in the

U.S. sector of eastern Kosova on 9 May, injuring six Serbs,

Reuters reported. Earlier that day, KFOR troops prevented a

clash between an unspecified number of Serbs in northern

Mitrovica and a group of 30 Albanians, who attempted to cross

into that area from the south, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported. PM

[17] BULGARIA FINDS NO PROOF OF ANGOLA SANCTIONS INFRINGEMENT

that a government commission has "come to the conclusion that

Bulgaria cannot be charged with violating the UN embargo" on

arms supply to Angola, Reuters reported. A UN report by

independent experts released in March accused two incumbent

African presidents and a dozen countries, among them

Bulgaria, of helping UNITA rebels smuggle diamonds to buy

arms and oil for their forces. The report said Bulgaria had

supplied arms to UNITA since 1997 and that UNITA personnel

masquerading as Congolese were trained in Bulgaria in how to

use the weapons. Deputy Foreign Minister Vasili Takev said

the government intends to increase control over arms exports

by requiring exporters to confirm delivery of each arms

shipment, in addition to presenting the end-user certificate

required at present. MS

[18] BULGARIA DISMISSES TOP ORGANIZED CRIME FIGHTER

government on 9 May approved Interior Minister Emanuil

Yordanov's proposal that General Kiril Radev be dismissed as

head of the National Service for Fighting Organized Crime,

Reuters reported. He is to be replaced by Rumen Milanov, who

until now headed the Gendarmerie. A ministry spokesman said

that under Radev, the National Service has "significantly

lagged behind in countering economic crime," which is "one of

the ministry's priorities." The local media links Radev's

dismissal to the row between Prime Minister Ivan Kostov and

former Interior Minister Bogomil Bonev, whom Kostov sacked in

December 1999. Radev was appointed by Bonev. MS

[19] ISRAELI OWNER SUES STRIKING BULGARIAN PILOTS

owner of a 75 percent share in Balkan Airlines, said in Sofia

on 9 May that he is taking legal action against the carrier's

striking pilots. Zeevi urged the government to help end the

week-long strike and threatened to pull out of the investment

if the cabinet fails to do so. A spokesman for the strikers

said 76 of the 250 pilots have received summons in a civil

suit. Earlier on 9 May, the pilots rejected a proposal by

Zeevi that they share one-tenth of any future profits. MS

[C] END NOTE

[20] WILL ALBANIA'S DEMOCRATS RETURN TO POWER?

Three years after mass riots and widespread anarchy

toppled the Democratic Party (PD) government of President

Sali Berisha, some analysts in Tirana suggest that the party

may have a good chance of winning this fall's local ballot

and general elections due by June 2001.

The Tirana-based analyst Armand Shkullaku argued in the

weekly "Klan" of 23 April that "the Socialists have failed to

fulfill their promises to the electorate. They have failed to

prove the accusations they put forward against Berisha--that

he is a thief and a killer--and they have shown the inability

to govern."

Shkullaku argues that just one year ago, most people

would have ruled out the possibility of Berisha returning to

government. "Now you better think twice before you speak," he

says. "In the last three years of the left-wing government,

very few things have changed, people have forgotten many

events of the past, and [the Socialists] have not kept many

of their promises. For the PD of Sali Berisha, current

Albanian political reality offers also significant

opportunities, despite the huge problems the party has had so

far."

The first factor playing into the hands of the PD is

voter behavior: "We should not forget that the Albanians, who

have generally been betrayed [by the politicians], have

learned to vote against [rather than for a particular

political option]," Shkullaku says.

Thus the main reason why people may vote for the PD can

be found within the governing coalition. In the course of

three years, the Socialist-led coalition has conducted four

government reshuffles. Two were under Prime Minister Fatos

Nano, one saw the appointment of Prime Minister Pandeli

Majko, and the last brought in current Prime Minister Ilir

Meta.

These reshuffles took place even though the Socialist

Party has an absolute parliamentary majority and the

coalition has over two-thirds of the seats. Shkullaku points

out that none of these governments has been able to clear

itself of all corruption and smuggling allegations.

He also argues that recent governments have lost

credibility when they claim great success at international

donors' conferences and through their participation in the

EU's Stability Pact for Southeastern Europe. In fact, they

have been unable to provide enough electricity in the winter,

drinking water in the summer, or properly maintained roads.

Many people are dissatisfied with the coalition's failure to

solve these day-to-day problems and have lost their trust in

its ability to govern.

Second, the Socialists have lost the moral high ground

in competing with Berisha. A lack of transparency and the

slow process of investigating the whereabouts of the money

that people lost in fraudulent pyramid investment schemes in

1997--as well as the failure to indict some of the suspects--

have played into the hands of the Democrats.

One of Berisha's strongest moral arguments during recent

opposition rallies is that the investigating authorities have

been unable to prove charges against him of participation in

the pyramids. The Socialists in 1997 used these accusations

in overthrowing his government.

The investigators have also been unable to substantiate

charges of corruption against the previous PD administration

or prove the Socialists' accusations against the PD

government that the Democrats sought to use military force

against rebel southern cities during the unrest. Courts have

closed all cases based on that charge for lack of evidence.

Furthermore, a trial dealing with riots in the capital after

the killing of PD legislator Azem Hajdari on 14 September

1998 did not result in sentences against prominent PD

leaders. The Socialists earlier accused the Democrats of

having attempted a coup d'etat.

Third, Berisha has been running an aggressive public

relations campaign, holding rallies in all major cities

throughout the country. The Socialists would need to match

Berisha's campaign in order to reach the rural population,

but they have shied away from public rallies, arguing that

they do not need to give Berisha a dose of his own medicine.

In any case, Shkullaku remains skeptical about what the

Socialists will have to offer to the electorate: "The

Socialists' difficulties in presenting themselves to the

people show that the governing party will not have an easy

time in facing its rival during the election campaign."

Berisha's campaign, however, appeals more to those

unsatisfied with the current government than to those who are

looking for specific alternative political options and better

government.

While the Socialists have the problem of presenting

results to the electorate, Berisha will have difficulties

putting his words into action. The voters still remember his

authoritarian way of governing during the first years of

post-communism, and he has done little or nothing to change

that image. His attempt at the start of the year to exclude

the reformist wing around Genc Pollo from the PD shows that

Berisha has not changed his style of leadership within the

party.

In addition, the relationship between Berisha and the

international community has deteriorated considerably since

the mid-1990s. This is due to the lack of democracy within

the PD and to the party's continuing refusal to negotiate

compromises with the government under the umbrella of the

OSCE. This was the case surrounding recent roundtable

negotiations about a new electoral code.

Indeed, many voters who fear international isolation

should Berisha return may turn their back on both the PD and

the Socialists. Nonetheless, a recent poll suggests that no

"third force" is capable of capitalizing on public

disillusionment with the two parties. The result is likely to

be low voter turnout.

10-05-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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