RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 142, 99-07-23

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 142, 23 July 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] RUSSIAN JEWS CONVERTED TO ARMENIAN CHURCH TO AVOID POGROMS

[02] AZERBAIJAN TO SEND PEACEKEEPERS TO KOSOVA

[03] AZERBAIJAN'S ALIEV PURSUES TWO-TRACK PEACE PROCESS

[04] NEW SLANDER TRIAL MARS AZERBAIJAN'S PRESS DAY

[05] ABKHAZ ELECTION PLANS DRAW GEORGIAN CRITICISM

[06] FORMER GEORGIAN SECURITY CHIEF BLAMED FOR COUP

[07] KAZEHGELDIN TO RUN FOR KAZAKHSTAN PARLIAMENT

[08] RUSSIAN SMUGGLING NUCLEAR MATERIALS DETAINED AT KAZAKHSTAN

[09] CLARIFICATION:

[10] RUSSIA TO OPEN MILITARY BASE IN TAJIKISTAN

[11] RUSSIAN-KYRGYZ JOINT VENTURE STEALS MEDICAL AID

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[12] HOMBACH: AID FOR SERBIA ONLY WITHOUT MILOSEVIC

[13] NATO: NO MORE UCK IN TWO MONTHS

[14] AGREEMENT ON MITROVICA REACHED

[15] OJDANIC STRESSES ARMY'S LOYALTY TO MILOSEVIC

[16] RESERVISTS RESUME PROTESTS IN NIS

[17] OPPOSITION: MILOSEVIC MUST GO BY FALL

[18] PODGORICA REJECTS BELGRADE AID REQUEST

[19] MONTENEGRO TAKES CONTROL OF AIRPORTS

[20] MONTENEGRIN DELGATION IN SARAJEVO

[21] ALBANIAN PRIME MINISTER SEEKS WESTERN AID

[22] ALBANIA'S DEMOCRATS RETURN TO PARLIAMENT

[23] UNCERTAINTY OVER APPROVAL OF IMF LOAN TO ROMANIA

[24] MAVERICK SERB LEADER IN ROMANIA

[25] YUGOSLAV VLACHS REQUEST ROMANIAN HELP

[26] FATE OF MOLDOVAN, ROMANIAN DEBT-SETTLING DEAL UNCERTAIN

[27] BULGARIA'S NATIONAL BANK OPENS UP COMMUNIST ARCHIVES

[C] END NOTE

[28] CZECH 'PSYCHOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS' AND 'VELVET REVOLUTIONS'

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] RUSSIAN JEWS CONVERTED TO ARMENIAN CHURCH TO AVOID POGROMS

According to a new book published

this week in Yerevan, thousands of Russian Jews sought to

join the Armenian Apostolic Church before World War I in

order to escape growing Russian anti-Semitic attacks at that

time, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reports. The book, by

Armenian Academician Vardges Mikaeelian, is based on archival

sources, but the author acknowledges that "it is difficult to

say how many Jews in fact adopted the Armenian Apostolic

faith." PG

[02] AZERBAIJAN TO SEND PEACEKEEPERS TO KOSOVA

General Javier Solana has invited Baku to send 30

peacekeepers to Kosova, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofik

Zulfugarov told ITAR-TASS on 22 July. Turkey had participated

in consultations with NATO that led to this agreement. PG

[03] AZERBAIJAN'S ALIEV PURSUES TWO-TRACK PEACE PROCESS

Heidar Aliev told visiting French Senate chairman Christian

Poncelet that Baku will seek to settle the Armenian-

Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh "both within the

framework of the OSCE Minsk Group and by direct talks between

heads of state," ITAR-TASS reported. Poncelet welcomed this

move, invited Baku to participate in Caucasus-wide talks in

Paris later this year, and called for the establishment of a

common market in the southern Caucasus. PG

[04] NEW SLANDER TRIAL MARS AZERBAIJAN'S PRESS DAY

journalist accused of slandering the brother of President

Aliev opened in Baku on 22 July, thus casting a shadow over

the country's National Press Day, AP reported. Speaking on

Azerbaijani television ANS, Aliev said that the country's

mass media is strong and "operating freely." Meanwhile, the

Trend news agency reported that the country's Russian-

language press on 21 July created a new association to help

resolve problems that Russian publications face in

Azerbaijan. PG

[05] ABKHAZ ELECTION PLANS DRAW GEORGIAN CRITICISM

region of Abkhazia will hold a presidential election on 3

October, Abkhazpress reported on 22 July. Georgian President

Eduard Shevardnadze denounced the move on 19 July, saying

"this is an illegal election. A region from which three-

quarters of the population has been evicted.... What kind of

legality can we speak of in these conditions?" PG

[06] FORMER GEORGIAN SECURITY CHIEF BLAMED FOR COUP

Kutateladze, Georgia's minister of state security, has

identified former Georgian security chief Igor Giorgadze as

the organizer of a recent coup plot against President

Shevardnadze, Prime News reported on 22 July. Kutateladze

said that Giorgadze wanted to subvert Georgian independence

by leading it into the Russia-Belarus union not as a single

country but rather as a set of regions. PG

[07] KAZEHGELDIN TO RUN FOR KAZAKHSTAN PARLIAMENT

Kazakhstan Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin, the leader of

the opposition Republican People's Party, will run for the

parliament, even though he and his party doubt the vote will

be democratic, Interfax-Kazakhstan reported on 22 July. But

there was one positive step with regard to that vote:

RFE/RL's Kazakh service reported on 22 July that the

Kazakhstan authorities have registered the Republican

People's Party, thereby making it fully eligible to

participate in the election. PG

[08] RUSSIAN SMUGGLING NUCLEAR MATERIALS DETAINED AT KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan customs officials detained a Russian

officer who was attempting to take radioactive materials into

Uzbekistan, ITAR-TASS reported on 22 July. The materials,

used as a power source for nuclear reactors, came from the

Baikonur space center. PG

[09] CLARIFICATION:

there is a hunger strike at Kazakhstan's Ekibastuz Power

Station. There are in fact two power stations there. The

strike is taking place at GRES-2, which remains state-owned,

not at GRES-1, which has been privatized.

[10] RUSSIA TO OPEN MILITARY BASE IN TAJIKISTAN

Minister Talbak Nazarov told Interfax on 22 July that Russia

plans to establish a military base in Tajikistan. He added

that Tajikistan "maintains balanced relations with all

countries but views Russia as a strategically important

partner." PG

[11] RUSSIAN-KYRGYZ JOINT VENTURE STEALS MEDICAL AID

Kyrgyz joint venture that was to deliver humanitarian aid

totaling $1.6 million to Kyrgyzstan in fact delivered only

$47,000 worth, the Kyrgyz National Security Ministry told

Interfax on 22 July. PG

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[12] HOMBACH: AID FOR SERBIA ONLY WITHOUT MILOSEVIC

representatives of European socialist and social democratic

parties gathered in Vienna on 22 July for a two-day

conference to discuss the political, social, legal, and

economic development of the Balkans, RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported. Participants include the presidents of

Slovenia and Montenegro and the prime ministers of Germany,

Austria, Greece, Albania, and the Republika Srpska. Several

Serbian opposition leaders are also present. Bodo Hombach,

who is the EU's chief aid coordinator for the Balkans, said

reconstruction aid will be available for Serbia once "the

Serbs oust [Yugoslav President Slobodan] Milosevic," whom he

called "the main problem" for the region. PM

[13] NATO: NO MORE UCK IN TWO MONTHS

Atlantic alliance told "The Daily Telegraph" of 23 July that

the disarmament of the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) is

proceeding successfully. The official added that "in two

months there will be no more [UCK]. There will be only one

military force in [Kosova], and that will be NATO."

Elsewhere, KFOR commander General Sir Mike Jackson postponed

a meeting with UCK General Agim Ceku from 23 to 24 July to

enable the UCK to "check its tallies" of armaments before

Jackson officially confirms that the guerrillas have met

their disarmament obligations to NATO (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"

21 July 1999). PM

[14] AGREEMENT ON MITROVICA REACHED

Albanians and Serbs in Mitrovica concluded an agreement on 22

July to guarantee freedom of movement across the Ibri River,

which divides Mitrovica into Serbian and Albanian sides.

Leaders from both communities will sign the agreement on 24

July. PM

[15] OJDANIC STRESSES ARMY'S LOYALTY TO MILOSEVIC

Dragoljub Ojdanic, who is the army's chief of staff and a

firm supporter of Milosevic, said during the president's

visit to the General Staff's headquarters on 21 July that the

army is "ready to carry out all tasks in keeping with the

constitution." It was his second public declaration of the

army's support for Milosevic in as many days (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 22 July 1999). PM

[16] RESERVISTS RESUME PROTESTS IN NIS

resumed blocking traffic in southern Serbia's largest city

after a break of three days (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 July

1999). They demanded immediate payment of back wages for the

time they served in Kosova. Enthusiastic crowds cheered the

reservists. The reservists taunted the well-paid paramilitary

police by chanting "You got yours, now let us get ours." In

Kragujevac, about 1,000 anti-Milosevic protesters chanted

"Off you go to The Hague." Several hundred anti-government

demonstrators gathered in Leskovac and in Valjevo, RFE/RL's

South Slavic Service reported. PM

[17] OPPOSITION: MILOSEVIC MUST GO BY FALL

the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, told reporters

at the Vienna conference on 23 July that several opposition

leaders have "agreed to coordinate our street

demonstrations." He added that he believes "that the last

bloody dictatorship of this century could be destroyed by the

autumn. If [Milosevic] remains any longer [than then], he

will [regain control of the situation], and all our efforts

will be useless. In November, the one who will have a loaf of

bread and a finger on electricity will rule Serbia," Reuters

reported. PM

[18] PODGORICA REJECTS BELGRADE AID REQUEST

Dragan Soc said in Podgorica on 22 July that the Montenegrin

government rejects a request by the Socialist People's Party

of Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic that the

government "send 1 percent of all income in Montenegro" to

Serbia to help repair the damage caused by NATO air strikes,

dpa reported. Soc stressed that the Montenegrin government

will not help the government of Milosevic but that it will

find ways of helping the Serbian people. The Montenegrin

authorities do not recognize the government of Bulatovic, who

is the arch-rival of Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic.

PM

[19] MONTENEGRO TAKES CONTROL OF AIRPORTS

Ministry spokesman said in Podgorica on 22 July that

Montenegro Airports, which is a new public company, has taken

over control of the republic's four airports from JAT, which

is the Belgrade-based Yugoslav national airline. The

spokesman added that the airports are now "property of

Montenegro" and that JAT staff who wish to retain their jobs

at the airports may do so. The U.S. and EU have banned JAT

from landing on their territory. The ban does not apply to

Montenegro Airlines. Podgorica is anxious to revive

Montenegro's tourist industry. Most tourists arrive at the

Podgorica or Tivat airports. PM

[20] MONTENEGRIN DELGATION IN SARAJEVO

Vujanovic, Deputy Prime Minister Novak Kilibarda, and the

ministers of foreign affairs, trade, and finance arrived in

Sarajevo on 22 July. The discussed economic cooperation with

Muslim leaders Alija Izetbegovic, Haris Silajdzic, and Edhem

Bicakcic. The Montenegrin and Muslim leaders also called for

political change in Serbia, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported. This is the first top-level official meeting

between officials from Podgorica and Sarajevo since the

collapse of the former Yugoslavia in 1991. PM

[21] ALBANIAN PRIME MINISTER SEEKS WESTERN AID

Vienna, Pandeli Majko told "Zeri i Popullit" of 22 July that

"Albania carried a heavy burden during the [Kosova] crisis

and we hope that we shall be rewarded for that." Foreign

Minister Paskal Milo said before leaving Tirana for an aid

donors' conference in Brussels that "we have made great

progress since the total dissolution of the state in Albania

in 1997, but the crisis in Kosova has hampered our efforts

for even better results." He appealed to the donors--known as

Friends of Albania--to "continue their assistance."

Elsewhere, the "Washington Post" reported that the Albanian

authorities have "a blunt message for the Western powers:

show me the money." PM

[22] ALBANIA'S DEMOCRATS RETURN TO PARLIAMENT

Albania's largest opposition party took part in a legislative

session on 22 July for the first time in more than 10 months

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 July 1999). Genc Pollo, who is one

of the Democrats' top leaders, told Reuters: "Returning to

parliament is an attempt by the Democratic Party to restore

the normality the country needs. The main responsibilities

[for the political polarization] lie with the Socialist

government. In due time we believe the Socialist gentlemen

will not be afraid of new elections." The Democrats launched

a parliamentary boycott after the killing of Democratic

legislator Azem Hajdari in September 1998. The party charged

the Socialist-led government with being behind the murder. PM

[23] UNCERTAINTY OVER APPROVAL OF IMF LOAN TO ROMANIA

the IMF's representative in Romania, told Romanian Radio on

22 July that the fund's executive board has not yet scheduled

its meeting to approve the $500 million stand-by loan agreed

with an IMF delegation in Bucharest last April. Hill said

Romania "still has to meet some conditions." Finance Minister

Decebal Train Remes the same day said that Credit Swiss First

Boston has now inquired about the progress made in meeting

the funds' conditions. Earlier, it said it is ready to

approve a $200 million credit. In an interview with state

radio, former Premier Theodor Stolojan explained that the

fund's new loan policy is to make approval conditional on

borrowing on international financial markets as well.

Observers say Romania may find itself in a vicious circle

where each creditor makes loaning conditional on progress

made with other creditors. MS

[24] MAVERICK SERB LEADER IN ROMANIA

Serbian Renewal Movement, told journalists on 22 July after

talks with President Emil Constantinescu that "Slobodan

Milosevic's most powerful backers are the U.S. and the EU,"

both of which contribute to Milosevic's popularity in Serbia

by condoning "the infringement of Serb rights...with KFOR

troops acquiescence" in Kosova. He added that KFOR troops

have "practically done away with the border between Kosova

and Albania" and the province has "became part of Greater

Albania." Constantinescu did not attend Draskovic's press

conference, and the Serbian opposition leader's statement was

described by Romanian Radio as "somewhat surprising." Prime

Minster Radu Vasile said after meeting with Draskovic that he

agrees with his view that "Serbia must not be isolated." He

added that he supports Draskovic's demand for a transitional

government in Serbia headed by a Montenegrin politician. MS

[25] YUGOSLAV VLACHS REQUEST ROMANIAN HELP

Constantinescu on 22 July received a delegation of the

Movement of Romanian Vlachs of Yugoslavia, Mediafax reported.

Dimitrie Craciunovic, chairman of the movement, requested

Romania to intervene with the Yugoslav authorities in order

for the community to be "officially recognized as a national

minority and granted collective rights." Craciunovic said the

authorities have been procrastinating for eight years on

answering the demand. He added that official statistics in

Yugoslavia put the number of Romanian Vlachs at 32,000 at

most, whereas unofficial statistics show that "no less than

800,000 Romanians live in eastern Serbia." And he said that

Constantinescu "promised to help more than in the past." MS

[26] FATE OF MOLDOVAN, ROMANIAN DEBT-SETTLING DEAL UNCERTAIN

fate of the deal envisaging a Romanian consortium's takeover

of a 51 percent stake in the Tirex-Petrol company in exchange

for writing off Moldova's $5 million debt to Romania for

electricity deliveries is uncertain, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau

reported on 22 July. The Moldovan government asked the

parliament to amend the law on the deal, which specifically

mentioned Romania. The amended law is to state that the stake

goes to "the highest bidder." Parliamentary chairman Dumitru

Diacov said the amendment is necessary to avoid infringing on

Moldovan privatization laws. Eugen Garla, chairman of the

Economy, Industry, and Privatization Commission, said it

paves the way for "money-laundering by phantom companies from

Germany or Greece" and accused Diacov of acting "in league

with the Communists" to exclude Romania from the deal (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 19 July 1999). MS

[27] BULGARIA'S NATIONAL BANK OPENS UP COMMUNIST ARCHIVES

National Bank is the first state institution that will open

its secret files from the communist-era, board member Rumen

Avramov told journalists on 22 July. He said that the bank's

archive comprising 80,000 pages will be made available to the

public as of 1 September. The archives cover Bulgarian

financial and economic history from 1945 to 1989, Reuters

reported. Avramov said that the records will offer

information on the accumulation of the country's foreign

debt, the debt crises, and the siphoning off of money through

the National Bank in the 1980s. MS

[C] END NOTE

[28] CZECH 'PSYCHOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS' AND 'VELVET REVOLUTIONS'

Political markets have many vendors. As in the economic

sphere, those vendors tries to promote their merchandise to

the best of their ability. But the political stock market is

more fuzzy than the stock market proper because "shares" are

difficult to trade and cash in, except at election time.

The closest thing to a stock exchange that politics can

offer in-between balloting are public opinion polls. Sky-

rocketing share prices (a boost in polling results) create

euphoria that may be dangerous if not reflecting political

reality. Likewise, a drop in prices may result in panic-

selling and that panic, in turn, acts to increase the prices

of competitors' shares. One may even speak of "psychological

thresholds" functioning as political milestones, just as such

thresholds (which usually are more or less fictitious) are

encountered in the realm of the economy proper.

The results of a public opinion survey conducted by the

Czech STEM polling institute and released last weekend might

have been expected to lead to the creation of a

"psychological threshold." The poll shows that for the first

time since the "velvet revolution" of 1989, the Communist

Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) is the second-strongest

political force in the Czech Republic, enjoying 17.8 percent

backing. In the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in June

1998, the KSCM polled 11 percent, making it the third-

strongest parliamentary group in the chamber. Opinion polls

have consistently shown in the last few months that the

party's popularity is rising. What is more, in recent local

by-elections held in 19 districts and in the municipality of

Ceske Budejovice, the KSCM finished second behind the Civic

Democratic Party (ODS). This is precisely what the STEM poll

of July 1999 suggests would be the result of parliamentary

elections were such a ballot to be held now.

While the ODS is leading the field--it received 23.4

percent of the vote in the STEM poll--it is questionable

whether this is good news for party leader and former Premier

Vaclav Klaus, given that in the 1998 general elections the

ODS scored 27.7 percent. More dramatic is the drop in support

for the ruling Social Democratic Party (CSSD), which,

according to the poll, would fall from the first place it

secured in the June 1998 elections, with 32.2 percent of the

vote, to a worrisome third place, losing nearly half of its

former strength (16.8 percent).

This may explain the panic displayed by the democratic

forces of various political persuasions in the face of the

survey's results. Perhaps the daily "Pravo" best summed up

that panic when it wrote on 19 July that the "self-appointed

best pupil" in the post-communist school for democracy, that

is the Czech Republic, has proved some 10 years after the

school was opened that it is ready to give the "unreformed

and un-reformable Communists" their strongest-backing

registered among the 1989 "graduates" (obviously "Pravo" was

leaving out the East Germans).

Panic notwithstanding, mutual bickering among

democratic forces intensified, rather than diminished, as a

result of the poll. President Vaclav Havel, a known opponent

of the "opposition agreement" that enabled the CSSD to rule

as a minority government in exchange for prominent

parliamentary posts for the ODS, blamed the poll's results on

that agreement. Havel is forgetting that it is only natural

for dissatisfied voters to flock to the opposition and that

the ODS cannot be counted in that category because of its

"unholy alliance" with the CSSD. Indeed, the Freedom Union,

which in June 1998 scored 8.6 percent in the elections to the

Chamber of Deputies, is now backed by 12.7 percent--in other

words, its support has increased more than 50 percent. The

third force that is not part of the CSSD-ODS agreement,

namely the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), are also doing

better than in the 1998 elections, but only slightly so

(compared with 10.4 percent, 9 percent).

The STEM poll might have been expected to encourage the

forces on the right to overcome their differences. A

coalition of the ODS, the Freedom Union, and the KDU-CSL

would command a majority of 115 in the 200-seats chamber, and

increase political stability, to the likely dissatisfaction

of the Communists. Freedom Union leader Jan Ruml and KDU-CSL

deputy chairman Karel Kuehnl did call for such a coalition,

but both seemed more preoccupied with pointing a finger at

the ODS for its alliance with the CSSD than with putting the

center-right's post-1998 relations on a new footing

In turn, the ODS (through its deputy parliamentary group

leader Vlastimil Tlusty) rushed to identify the KDU-CSL and

the union as the main culprits for having rejected the ODS's

overtures to form a coalition after the 1998 elections. The

CSSD, while admitting that the alliance with the ODS might be

one of the reasons for the growth in communist support, noted

(through Deputy Premier Vladimir Spidla) that this was no

reason to halt the constitutional changes currently being

examined by a joint CSSD-ODS commission. Those changes also

provide for curtailing the president's powers.

In other words, machinations to undermine adversaries

(and Havel is perceived as an adversary by both the CSSD and

the ODS) are more important than the looming prospect of an

eventual communist election victory. Some "psychological

thresholds," it seems, are more difficult to overcome than

others. And for some people, this may recall the days

preceding the February 1948 communist takeover--except that

the Communists no longer have militias to lean on. Is,

however, a "velvet counter-revolution" inconceivable?

23-07-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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