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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 141, 99-07-22Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 141, 22 July 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PREMIER MEETS RUSSIAN GENERAL 'BEHIND CLOSED DOORS'Vazgen Sarkisian met with the chief of the Russian GeneralStaff, Anatolii Kvashnin, "behind closed doors" on 21 July to discuss military cooperation between Moscow and Yerevan, ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported. Neither side provided additional details about the meeting, except to say they were of a "businesslike character." PG [02] DETAILS EMERGE ON ALIEV-KOCHARIAN TALKSVafa Guluzade,President Heidar Aliev's chief foreign policy adviser, told the Turan news agency on 21 July that Aliev met with Armenian President Robert Kocharian on 16 July "without the participation of a third person." Guluzade suggested that such a "face-to-face" meeting was essential for beginning to resolve the Karabakh dispute. Moreover, he said, such direct contacts allowed the two leaders to explore a variety of issues in a more open way. But the paucity of information about the talks has led to criticism in the Azerbaijani press, with "Azadlyg" suggesting on 20 July that Aliev is pursuing a policy that will lead to the loss of Karabakh and with "Yewni Musavat" saying on 21 July that Aliev's failure to provide details suggests Baku rather than Yerevan suffered a defeat in the talks. However, international praise for the meeting continued to come in, with the EU adding its approval on 21 July, ITAR-TASS reported. PG [03] RUSSIA STILL PREPARED TO TRANSPORT AZERBAIJANI OILTheRussian Fuel and Energy Ministry told Interfax on 21 July that Moscow is still prepared to transport oil from Azerbaijan to the West, despite tensions between the two countries. But the Russian ministry underscored that it will keep its part of the bargain only if Azerbaijan does the same and ships 180,000 tons of oil each month. PG [04] SHEVARDNADZE URGES UN SECURITY COUNCIL TO FOCUS ON ABKHAZIAPresident Eduard Shevardnadze has sent a letter to the chiefsof states who are members of the UN Security Council urging them to step up their efforts to resolve the Abkhaz dispute, Caucasus Press reported on 21 July. Vazha Lortkipanidze, the Georgian state minister who also signed the appeal, said Tbilisi hopes that the international community will eventually recognize that the Abkhaz have been guilty of ethnic cleansing and genocide against the Georgian people. Meanwhile, refugees from Abkhazia on 21 July attempted to storm the Arts Academy building in Tbilisi both to find shelter and to protest the way in which they have been treated. And the Abkhaz parliament extended the state of emergency for another three months, Prime News reported on 21 July. PG [05] UZBEKS, KYRGYZ, TURKS AMONG MUSLIMS ARRESTED IN KAZAKHSTANKazakhstan's Internal Affairs Minister Kairbek Suleymenovtold Khabar TV on 21 July that there were citizens of Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan among those arrested in the Zhabul region last weekend for supposedly illegal religious activities (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 July 1999). He said that most of them were not carrying documents at the time, that 54 remain in detention, but that all the children have been released. PG [06] NAZARBAEV STEPS UP ANTI-CORRUPTION DRIVEIn order toincrease the fight against corruption, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbaev said on 21 July that all anti-corruption agencies will now report directly to him, Interfax-Kazakhstan reported. PG [07] HUNGER STRIKE CONTINUES AT EKIBASTUZ POWER STATIONSome 75people are continuing their three-week hunger strike at the Ekibastuz Power Station to demand the payment of back wages, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported on 21 July. Some of the strikers have already been hospitalized. Local officials and the central government have promised to pay them as soon as possible, but the strikers say they do not trust such promises. PG [08] ANTHRAX OUTBREAK IN KYRGYZSTANThree people have contractedanthrax in Kyrgyzstan, Interfax reported on 21 July. And another four are showing symptoms. All were among 700 workers who butchered cattle infected with the disease. PG [09] TAJIKS BACK RAKHMONOV FOR RE-ELECTION AS PRESIDENTMore than70 percent of the Tajik population currently backs the re- election of President Imomali Rakhmonov at a November 1999 poll, according to data reported by Interfax on 21 July. PG [10] TAJIKISTAN COMPLETES REGISTRATION OF REBELS FOR ARMY SERVICETajik officials told Interfax on 21 July that Dushanbe hascompleted the registration of 5,377 rebel fighters who are to be integrated into the national army. Many of these were in Afghanistan or in hiding and will now be included within the standing military of that country. PG [11] TAJIK, UZBEK PRESIDENTS DISCUSS AFGHANISTANTajik PresidentRakhmonov and his Uzbek counterpart, Islam Karimov, discussed by telephone the results of this week's "Six Plus Two" Meetings on Afghanistan and repeated their common view that "there is no military solution to the Afghan crisis," ITAR- TASS reported. Rakhmonov thanked Karimov for his efforts in holding the talks. Earlier that day in Tashkent, Karimov received Afghan opposition leader Ahmad Shah Masood, who was invited to the earlier talks but did not show up until after they were over. PG [12] TURKEY STRESSES SUPPORT FOR TRANSCASPIAN PIPELINEIn amessage to Turkmen President Saparmurad Niyazov, Turkish President Suleyman Demirel urged that the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline be completed earlier than scheduled and said Turkey "will offer Turkmenistan all possible assistance to make that a reality." PG [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[13] OJDANIC SAYS ARMY MAY INTERVENE AGAINST PROTESTS...GeneralDragoljub Ojdanic, who is chief of the General Staff and a staunch supporter of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, told a meeting of the government in Belgrade on 21 July that the military will "support the state" and its "elected leadership" in peacetime as well as in war, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM [14] ...AS PERISIC SLAMS HIMGeneral Momcilo Perisic, who wasOjdanic's predecessor as chief of staff, told the Belgrade- based weekly "NIN" that the government seriously mismanaged the crisis in Kosova. He charged that the army leadership is now openly politicized on the side of Milosevic and Mira Markovic, who is the president's wife. Perisic added that all democratic forces in Serbia must unite if they want to get rid of Milosevic, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 22 July. Milosevic fired Perisic and replaced him with Ojdanic in November 1998 following public criticism by Perisic of Milosevic's policies in Kosova (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 November 1998). PM [15] SERBIAN RESERVISTS SET DEADLINE FOR PAYMENTSSeveral hundredreservists blocked a road outside Kragujevac to demand that the army give them their back pay within 48 hours. They also demanded that the authorities pay the reservists' water and electricity bills and provide benefits for the families of dead or disabled soldiers in the Kosova conflict, Reuters reported. A spokesman for the reservists said they will march on Belgrade if the authorities do not meet the deadline. Earlier the same day, Defense Minister Pavle Bulatovic said the army will pay back wages totaling $90 million in six monthly installments. Serbian economists noted that the average monthly salary there is about $40 and that a rapid influx of freshly printed money into the economy could trigger rampant inflation, AP reported. PM [16] MILOSEVIC GOVERNMENT CALLS OPPONENTS 'TRAITORS'SerbianPrime Minister Mirko Marjanovic said in Novi Pazar on 21 July that unnamed opponents of Milosevic "were visiting our enemies and requesting them to keep bombing while we were defending our country," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He was referring to Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic, whom a court has summoned to a hearing on 28 July over charges that he failed to respond to a military call-up notice during the Kosova conflict. The Democratic Party said in a statement that the authorities are "trying to settle accounts with democratic forces...[and prevent] inevitable changes." In Novi Pazar, the opposition Sandzak Coalition said in a statement that Marjanovic's visit was an example of "bad taste and cheap political propaganda." PM [17] ADDITIONAL JAIL SENTENCE FOR NOVKOVIC?Protests continued inLeskovac on 21 July for the 17th straight day to demand the release from jail of television broadcaster Ivan Novkovic, who had appealed on the air for anti-Milosevic protests (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 July 1999). The broadcaster is serving a 30-day sentence. On 22 July, a local judge ruled that Novkovic faces a criminal charge of "misusing an official position" in connection with the same televised appeal. If found guilty, Novkovic could face up to five years in prison, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM [18] BELGRADE FINES RADIO PANCEVOThe authorities sent a $35,000bill to the independent Radio Pancevo "for use of state-owned frequencies," AP reported on 21 July. A spokeswoman for the station said the government "does not consider us patriotic" and is trying to bankrupt the station to force it off the air. She stressed that Radio Pancevo does not have the money to pay the bill. PM [19] STUDENTS DEMONSTRATE IN NISSeveral hundred secondary schooland university students demonstrated in southern Serbia's principal city on 21 July to demand that Milosevic resign. A spokesman told Reuters that "Serbia, headed [sic.] by its students, must change because this is not life, this is a twilight zone." Another student added that protests will become much bigger in September and October after the summer holidays. Observers noted that the march in Nis was the first large student anti-Milosevic protest in several years. During the Kosova crisis, students often wore anti-NATO badges and turned out for public rock concerts organized by the authorities. Elsewhere, representatives of the Independent Farmers' Union called for protests and a general strike on 2 August, AP reported from Belgrade. PM [20] KFOR FREES SERBIAN POLICEInternational peacekeepers havereturned to the Serbian authorities four Serbian police whom KFOR troops recently arrested in northern Kosova, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 21 July (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 July 1999). The four said they did nothing wrong and mistakenly entered Kosova because they "misread their map." PM [21] UNHCR OUTLINES KOSOVA RECONSTRUCTION COSTS...A spokesman forthe UNHCR said in Prishtina on 21 July that approximately 25 percent of the buildings in the province's 29 largest cities and towns were "heavily damaged" during the recent crisis. He estimated that reconstruction costs for the rest of 1999 at $333 million. PM [22] ...AS DOES WORLD BANKWorld Bank President James Wolfensohnsaid in Prishtina on 21 July that "water, power, fire services, and, most important, police [must be restored]. The fabric of civil [sic.] government needs to be put together, because it does not exist today. [We also need] a basis for re-establishing commerce, including banking and the provision of micro-credit to get [the economy] moving forward," Reuters reported. Wolfensohn stressed that "it's important to rebuild confidence, establish a normal way of life." He noted that law and order are a prerequisite for attracting foreign investment. Wolfensohn estimated reconstruction costs "for the next two months" at approximately $50 million. PM [23] PRODI WARNS AGAINST 'BUREAUCRACY'Incoming EuropeanCommission President Romano Prodi said in Strasbourg on 21 July that the EU "will be the first to contribute [to the Kosova reconstruction effort], but there is a danger that the impact of its support will get buried in a complex web of competing structures. We desperately need to simplify things." He warned that money must be directed primarily to projects in Kosova and not to salaries of EU officials. Critics of the EU effort have charged that officials dealing with the program should be working in Kosova and not in Thessaloniki or Brussels, where EU aid coordinator Bodo Hombach reportedly plans to have a large office. PM [24] BOSNIANS BLAST EU OVER SUMMIT PLANNINGEdhem Bicakcic, whois prime minister of the mainly Muslim and Croatian Bosnian federation and the head of Bosnia's organizing committee for the 30 July Balkan reconstruction summit in Sarajevo, said on 21 July that the EU "has put the summit into question...by its lack of understanding of the need for timely preparation" of the meeting. The EU approved a budget of $1.6 million for the summit only on 19 July. The Bosnian authorities expected an unspecified, larger sum at an earlier date. PM [25] BOSNIAN PARLIAMENT FAILS TO ADOPT TV LAWThe legislature ofthe mainly Muslim and Croatian federation ended a session on 21 July without passing proposed legislation to regulate television in the federation. The international community's Carlos Westendorp had given the parliament a deadline of midnight that day to pass the law. He is likely to enact the legislation by decree on 22 July, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported from Sarajevo. PM [26] ARE THERE SPIES IN THE HAGUE?The Dutch intelligence servicesaid in its annual report on 21 July that members of unnamed "Balkan secret services" have sought to infiltrate the Hague- based war crimes tribunal, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The agents allegedly sought to influence the court's work and to obtain information about the identity of witnesses who have testified in confidence to the tribunal. The report did not elaborate. PM [27] WORLD BANK TO HELP MACEDONIAWolfensohn said in Skopje on 20July that the World Bank "will do all we can along with the G-7 and other European countries to ensure that the financing, which is needed to reach the level of the assessed damage [resulting from the Kosova conflict], can be put together in the coming months" He did not specify a figure. During his visit, he signed agreements for several projects totaling more than $50 million, Reuters reported. Wolfensohn stressed that Macedonia must reform its legal, banking, justice, and financial systems. Only by instituting key reforms, he continued, can Macedonia "be organized to face the future." PM [28] ROMANIAN SENATE CHAIRMAN JOINS CRITICS OF GENERALS'SENTENCINGPetre Roman on 21 July said he fully agrees with Defense Minister Victor Babiuc's criticism of the sentence passed last week on Generals Victor Stanculescu and Mihai Chitac. Roman, who heads the Democratic Party, to which Babiuc also belongs, said the sentence is "discrediting the army as a whole," adding that it is "strange" that shortly after a former head of the Securitate, General Mihai Pacepa, was rehabilitated, the judicial system sentences two generals who participated in the 1989 revolution, treating them "as if they were war criminals," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS [29] ROMANIAN NATIONALISTS CRITICIZE CONSTITUTIONAL COURTTheParty of Romanian National Unity (PUNR) on 21 July said a recent ruling by the Constitutional Court is likely to have "baleful consequences" for the country. The previous day, the court ruled that the amended Education Law passed by the parliament last month does not violate the constitution. It also ruled that when the parliament is in recess, the cabinet is entitled to ratify by government regulation the European Charter on Minority and Regional Languages. Twenty-five senators and 61 deputies from the PUNR and the Party of Social Democracy in Romania had urged the court to rule that both the law and the charter contradict the provisions stipulating that Romania is a "unitary and national state" and that the country's only official language is Romanian. The group also argued that only the parliament can ratify the charter. MS [30] MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS DENY TURKISH INVOLVEMENT IN KURDISHREBEL'S CAPTUREThe Moldovan Interior and Security Ministries on 21 July denied any knowledge of the capture in Moldova of a Kurdish rebel, the RFE/RL Chisinau bureau reported. Turkish Premier Bulent Ecevit had said earlier the same day that Cevat Sosyal was arrested in a secret Turkish operation and brought to Turkey. Xemgin Abdulah of the Kurdistan Association of Moldova told journalists that Sosyal was arrested in Chisinau on 13 July by the Security Ministry and later extradited to Turkey. Reports from Turkey said Sosyal is the second-ranking Kurdish rebel leader after Abdullah Ocalan, who was recently condemned to death in Turkey. The Kurdistan National Liberation Front, which is the political wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), said in a written statement that Sosyal was a rebel activist, but not a senior PKK leader. MS [31] BULGARIAN PREMIER IN GREECEIvan Kostov told journalists inAthens on 21 July that "Greece is Bulgaria's most important partner among EU states" and that his government is interested in further Greek investments in Bulgaria. Greek Prime Minister Kostas Simitis said Athens wants its EU partners to agree at the Helsinki summit in December to start membership negotiations with Bulgaria, and he expressed support for Bulgaria's NATO accession bid. Simitis added that his government remains committed to participating in the construction of a highway linking Bulgaria to northern Greece but that the project is being delayed by "environmental considerations." Kostov said officials from the two countries and from Russia will meet at the end of this month to discuss a possible pipeline linking Bulgaria's Black Sea port of Burgas with Alexandroupolis, on the Aegean Sea. The project has been delayed by disputes among the countries involved and doubts about its efficiency. MS [C] END NOTE[32] EFFECTS OF RUSSIAN CRISIS CATCH UP WITH LITHUANIAby Michael WyzanIn the first few months after the Russian economic crisis erupted in August 1998, Lithuania seemed less affected by that development than the other two Baltic states. GDP rose by 5.1 percent in Lithuania in 1998, compared with 4 percent in Estonia and 3.6 percent in Latvia. The Lithuanian economy's apparent ability to withstand the crisis better than those of the neighboring countries was surprising in view of its greater dependence on trade with Russia. By far Lithuania's largest partner, Russia accounted for 22 percent of Lithuanian exports and 23 percent of its imports in 1998. Russia's weight in Estonia's trade last year was 13 percent for exports (third place) and 11 percent for imports (second), while for Latvia the comparable figures were 12 percent for exports (third) and 12 percent for imports (second). Despite the strong GDP growth for 1998 as a whole, Lithuania's economy was performing weakly by the fourth quarter. GDP growth was only 0.2 percent in that quarter, compared with the same period in 1997. Much of the blame for the slowdown in growth can be attributed to the foreign sector: total exports were 22 percent lower than during the final quarter of 1997. Most indicators point to a deterioration in economic performance in early 1999. GDP fell by 5.7 percent during the first quarter, compared with the same period in 1997. From January-May, sales of industrial production were down by 8.5 percent, compared with one year earlier. Nonetheless, the worst may well be over. During the first two months of the year, industrial sales were down by 12.2 percent. Moreover, the official unemployment rate, after rising from 6.9 percent at the end of 1998 to a record 8.5 percent in March, has since subsided to 7.8 percent in May. A large decline in trade with Russia, similar to that experienced by both Estonia and Latvia in 1998, has finally hit Lithuania this year, especially with regard to exports. From January through April, Russia purchased only 7 percent of Lithuanian exports, putting it in fourth place. However, with regard to Lithuanian imports, Russia remained the most important partner, accounting for 20 percent of the total. Thus, Lithuania remains more vulnerable to economic developments in Russia than Estonia or Latvia. That vulnerability is even greater than the figures suggest because much of Lithuania's imports from Russia consists of crude oil for the Mazeikiai refinery, whose supplies have been cut off twice this year (in late January and in late May, on both occasions for several days). Since Mazeikiai accounts for about 10 percent of GDP, these shutdowns have a significant impact on the economy. The weakness of the economy this year has had predictable fiscal consequences. The government of former Prime Minister Gediminas Vagnorius, who was replaced on 19 May by Rolandas Paksas, had targeted a balanced budget for 1999. However, that goal was predicated on 5.5 percent GDP growth and 5 percent inflation. Given the unrealistic targeted GDP growth, the current government is considering expenditure cuts of varying sizes, with the IMF supporting a reduction of $104 million. There is, however, one silver lining for Lithuania's economy this year--namely that the current account deficit, which had reached an alarming 12.1 percent of GDP in 1998, fell to 9.6 percent of GDP during the first quarter. In line with the slowing economy, imports contracted by 20.2 percent from January through April over the same period in 1998. Such a decline kept the trade deficit from growing excessively in the face of a 23.5 percent fall in exports over this period. Large current account deficits have not yet undermined Lithuania's commitment to maintaining the fixed exchange rate under the currency board introduced in April 1994, although there is debate about how and when to switch from pegging to the dollar to fixing to the euro. Moreover, foreign direct investment of $920 million in 1998, largely on the strength of the sale in July to Swedish and Finnish interests of the telecommunications monopoly for $510 million, was sufficiently large that the foreign reserves grew by $397 million, despite the big current account imbalance. Projections for Lithuania's GDP growth this year vary, with the IMF projecting 2.5 percent and other observers predicting a decline of 1-2 percent. Exports to Russia are likely to remain far below their past levels, so that reorienting foreign trade toward the EU must be given a high priority if sustained economic growth is to be achieved in the coming years. The author is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. 22-07-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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