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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 230, 98-12-02Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 230, 2 December 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] RUSSIA CALLS FOR STRICTER CONTROLS ON BORDER WITH AZERBAIJANMajor-General Sergei Bondarev, deputy commander of the North Caucasus department of the Russian Federal Border Service, told colleagues on 30 November that controls on the Russian- Azerbaijani border will be intensified in the near future, Turan reported. Bondarev cited the anticipated sharp price hikes for food and other consumer goods in Dagestan, which, he said, might impel the local population to travel to neighboring Azerbaijan, where prices are cheaper. Residents of villages on the Dagestani side of the border crossed into Azerbaijan last week and tried to disarm Azerbaijani border guards. They were frustrated about not being allowed to cross the border at will (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 1, No. 40, 1 December 1998). LF[02] U.S. EXPRESSES CONCERN AT MEDIA CRACKDOWN IN AZERBAIJANU.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin said on 1 December that the sentencing of Azerbaijani opposition journalist Fuad Gakhramanly over an unpublished article constitutes part of the Azerbaijani government's broader campaign to "harass the opposition and restrict freedom of thought and expression," AP reported. Rubin called on the Azerbaijani leadership "to engage in dialogue with, not harassment of, political opponents." Meanwhile, some 20 independent newspaper editors have ended a hunger strike begun in mid-November, but their deputies and the entire editorial staff of the newspaper "Cumhurriyet" have begun fasting in their place, Turan reported on 1 December. Meeting last week in Baku with OSCE Chairman-in- Office Bronislaw Geremek, Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev rejected the latter's argument that the libel suits brought against opposition newspapers are at odds with the principle of free speech, according to the "Neue Zuercher Zeitung" on 1 December. LF[03] AZERBAIJANI PARLIAMENT RATIFIES ANOTHER OIL CONTRACTParliamentary deputies on 1 December voted by 88 to three with two abstentions to ratify the $2 billion contract concluded in London in July 1998 to develop the Inam Caspian oil field, which has estimated reserves of 100 million metric tons, Turan reported. The Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR has a 50 percent stake, Amoco 25 percent, and the British Monument Oil and Gas and the Central Fuel Company of Russia 12. 5 percent each. In November, the parliament ratified the production-sharing agreements on exploiting the Shemakha-Gobustan and Muradkhanly fields. LF[04] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT CRITICIZES PREVIOUS REGIMEIn an interview with three leading Armenian television channels on 30 November, Robert Kocharian condemned the approach of his predecessor, Levon Ter-Petrossian, toward privatizing state enterprises, resolving the Karabakh conflict, and campaigning for international recognition of the 1915 genocide, Noyan Tapan reported. He described the previous regime's Karabakh policy as "conciliatory" and as implying that Armenia did not support Karabakh Armenians' aspiration to independent status. But Kocharian refrained from explicitly condemning Ter-Petrossian's administration, as demanded by opposition parties over the past several weeks. LF[05] TAJIK NATIONAL BANK OFFICIAL KIDNAPPEDFour armed men in camouflage outfits stopped the car of Tajik National Bank deputy chairman Nawruz Valiyev and kidnapped him on 2 December, ITAR- TASS and Reuters reported. On 26 November, the Russian news agency reported that the incidence of kidnapping in Tajikistan has doubled in the first nine months of this year, compared with same period in 1997. Moreover, there are currently 2,068 wanted criminals at large, although some of them may no longer be in Tajikistan. BP[06] KAZAKH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HOLDS PRESS CONFERENCESerikbolsyn Abdildin, the presidential candidate from the Communist Party, held a press conference in Almaty on 1 December to outline his political program, RFE/RL correspondents reported. Abdildin said Kazakhstan needs an "equal society" and a diversified economy that includes elements of both central planning and a free market. He also said Kazakhstan should seek closer ties with Russia, specifically by concluding a joint defense treaty. Abdildin noted that poverty must be tackled immediately as about 80 percent of the population can be considered "poor." BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] U.S. SHIFTING POLICY ON SERBIA?State Department spokesman James Rubin said on 30 November that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is the root of "the problem" in the former Yugoslavia and cannot be a source of stability in the region, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Rubin added that Washington favors the democratization of Serbia and applauds the moves by the Montenegrin government aimed at promoting democracy. The following day, Rubin noted that the U.S. will not "lose any sleep if [Milosevic] passes from the scene." The spokesman declined to comment on unspecified press reports that Bill Clinton's administration is actively seeking Milosevic's overthrow in order to expedite an interim political solution in Kosova. Rubin added that the recent agreement between Milosevic and U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke shows that Washington must "balance principle and pragmatism in a very complicated situation." On 29 November, London's "The Observer" wrote that the Clinton administration recently decided to work for Milosevic's downfall. PM[08] BELGRADE SLAMS INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS VIS-A-VIS UCKThe Yugoslav government sent a strongly worded statement to the OSCE on 1 December blasting international efforts to draw the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) into the peace process as "legalizing the terrorists." The text said that the UCK is involved in "insolent, criminal activity and provocative actions, [which] present an obstacle to the peace process.... The aim of the terrorists and separatists is not a political solution...but terror, violence, and an attempt to change borders." The Yugoslav authorities warned against maintaining "contacts...with terrorists, killers, kidnappers, bandits and other criminals that call themselves" the UCK. The statement concluded that Belgrade "will not allow [the UCK to continue its attacks] no matter what the price." PM[09] DEMACI SAYS UCK STILL SEEKS INDEPENDENCEAdem Demaci, who is the UCK's political spokesman, said in Prishtina on 1 December that the guerrillas have not given up their goal of independence, even though they are willing to accept the status of a republic within Yugoslavia as part of an interim political settlement. He also denied unspecified press reports that the UCK has ties to internationally wanted terrorist Osama Bin Laden (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 November 1998). PM[10] NEW COINS ARRIVE IN BOSNIAA shipment of some 9 million coins arrived from the U.K.'s Royal Mint in Sarajevo on 1 December. The coins are in the denominations of 10, 20, and 50 fenigs and will replace the candies and chocolate bars that have been used as small change until now. This summer, the international community introduced the "convertible mark," which is pegged to the German mark at the rate of one-to-one, as the all-Bosnian currency. The Croatian kuna is also used in Croat-controlled parts of Bosnia, and the Yugoslav dinar is legal tender in the Republika Srpska. The German mark is the most widely accepted currency throughout the former Yugoslavia. Meanwhile in Banja Luka, the Bosnian Serb government revoked its earlier decision to devalue the Yugoslav dinar. The latest move is aimed at restoring normal business links with Serbia and Montenegro, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 November 1998). PM[11] SARAJEVO SERBS CHARGE DISCRIMINATIONDusan Sehovac, who chairs the Democratic Initiative of Sarajevo Serbs, said on 1 December that Serbs are subjected to "quiet, subtle, and very effective" discrimination in the school system of the mainly Croatian and Muslim federation. Sehovac noted that text books show pictures of mosques and of Roman Catholic churches but not of Orthodox churches, "Oslobodjenje" reported. Political organizations representing Sarajevo Serbs, many of whom remained in the besieged city throughout the war or fought in Bosnian army ranks, seek full legal equality within the federation. PM[12] CONTROVERSY CONTINUES OVER ALBANIAN MURDER INVESTIGATIONOSCE Ambassador to Albania Daan Everts has proposed that an unnamed Norwegian prosecutor take part in the investigation of the September murder of Democratic Party legislator Azem Hajdari, "Shekulli" reported on 2 December. The authorities have accepted the offer. Ongoing investigations have not produced any results, but Democratic leaders have repeatedly charged that the controversial Hajdari was the victim of a political murder orchestrated by the government. Parliamentary deputy speaker Jozefina Topalli (of the Democratic Party) said on 1 December that the Norwegian official should report to the Council of Europe or to the OSCE rather than to the Albanian government if he comes to help with the case. She added that if the prosecutor "comes as an adviser to the iron-fisted Albanian state [who is] against the opposition..., the opposition will consider his mission worthless and boding ill for the future rule of law." FS[13] ALBANIA HEADED FOR AIDS EXPLOSION?Albanian Health Minister Leonard Solis told ATA news agency in Tirana on 1 December that a highly mobile labor force and widespread prostitution could lead to an AIDS explosion in Albania." He noted that there are only 38 registered AIDS cases but that health officials suspect the real number of those infected with HIV is as high as 3,000. Solis added that the authorities lack the facilities and experience to monitor the spread of the disease, and he commented that the population is poorly informed about how to prevent the disease and about the need to test for AIDS. Some 85 percent of the known cases involved transmission of the virus through sexual contact, while the remaining 15 percent contracted HIV through transfusions of contaminated blood or through sharing hypodermic needles. PM[14] ROMANIA MARKS NATIONAL DAYRomanian President Emil Constantinescu said in a speech marking the 80th anniversary of the return of Transylvania to Romania that "there is nothing more important for a people than its unity, independence, and sovereignty," Rompres reported on 1 December. An estimated 20,000 people watched a military parade in Bucharest. Some officials criticized the cost of the festivities--$900,000--at a time when the country is in such dire economic straits. Constantinescu added that "regional cooperation, seen as the central element for stability, is the country's pillar on which its present and future policies rest." PB[15] DROP IN MOLDOVAN FOREIGN TRADEIn the first 10 months of this year, Moldova's foreign trade declined by 11.4 percent compared with the same period last year, BASA-press reported on 30 November. The Ministry of Economy and Reform said the total value of the country's foreign trade through October was $1.43 billion. Exports declined by 19.3 percent, while imports dropped by 5.7 percent. The bulk of the decline occurred in September and October as a result of the Russian financial crisis and Romania's imposition of a 6 percent tax on imports. In other news, Mark Horton, IMF permanent representative to Moldova, said on 30 November that the IMF and the World Bank will indefinitely postpone renewing loans to Moldova if the parliament procrastinates passing the 1999 budget. MS[16] BULGARIAN OFFICIALS CONGRATULATE MACEDONIAN COUNTERPARTSBulgarian Prime Minister Ivan Kostov and Foreign Minister Nadezhda Mikhaylova said they hope the election of a new government in Macedonia will "open a new chapter" in bilateral relations, Bulgarian Radio reported on 1 December. Kostov said in a telegram to newly confirmed Macedonian Premier Lyubco Georgievski that he is "filled with confidence...that an atmosphere of mutual respect and understanding" will develop between Bulgaria and Macedonia. Mikhaylova also congratulated her Macedonian counterpart, Aleksandar Dimitrov, by telegram. PB[17] BULGARIAN NUCLEAR PLANT GETS FAVORABLE RATINGAn international team of nuclear reactor specialists said on 1 December that the safety standards at the controversial Kozloduy nuclear power station are "good," an RFE/RL correspondent in Sofia reported. The inspectors--from France, Switzerland, and Russia--inspected the two oldest reactors at the station from 23-27 November. The EU has pressured the Bulgarian government to close the reactors, despite millions of dollars in upgrades and some positive inspections of the plant by Western officials. PB[C] END NOTE[18] FIGURING RUSSIA'S FOREIGN DEBTby Robert LyleAn official of Germany's Deutsche Bank laughs when asked the size of Russia's total external debt. "The overall figures vary so much I don't want to get involved in that," he says. Deutsche Bank, one of the world's largest, with commercial loan and investment exposure of more than $1 billion in Russia, uses the figure of $182.8 billion as its best-guess-estimate of what Russia, publicly and privately, owes the rest of the world. United Financial Group and the daily "Moscow Times" put the total outstanding debt even higher, at $195 billion--$150 billion in state debt and $45 billion in commercial debt. If the United Financial figures are correct, Russia borrowed $70 billion in 1997 and the first six months of 1998. The global organization of commercial financial firms, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), says Russia borrowed $22 billion in the first half of 1998 alone. The IMF will not release the figures it is using, although in a report before Moscow's splurge of borrowing and this year's financial crisis, it put Russia's external debt at the end of 1996 at $125 billion. That included Soviet debt Moscow assumed on the break-up of the USSR and then rescheduled as well as $15.4 billion still owed to its old partners in the communist economic and trade group COMECON. Russia has not issued an official accounting of all of its external debt, but Deutsche Bank estimates that the largest portion--$152.8 billion--is owed by the Russian federation government. It estimates that local and regional governments owe another $1.5 billion and banks and corporations $28.5 billion. The United Financial Group and the "Moscow Times" put debt due in 1999 at $32.5 billion--$17.5 billion in state debt and $15 billion in commercial debt. The IIF, however, says the $17.5 billion government figure does NOT include whatever Russia will pay on treasury bills now being rescheduled. Deutsche Bank includes the interest as well in its estimates that public and private borrowers in Russia are supposed to pay foreign creditors a total of $49 billion in 1999. Meanwhile, Deputy Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has said Moscow will be able to pay back less than $10 billion of the $17.5 billion owed through 1999. The overall situation is confusing because negotiations on dealing with each part of the debt are conducted with different creditors under different circumstances. For example, Russia's official debt to commercial bankers is being dealt with in at least two sets of talks under the so- called London Club, a grouping of about 600 commercial banks worldwide. The most pressing talks are over part of the rescheduled Soviet Union debt--instruments called PRINS--which is due on 2 December but has a 15-day grace period. Under the rescheduling agreement worked out in 1997, half of what is due on 2 December was to be paid in cash and half in bonds to be called Interest Arrears Notes (IANs). Instead, Russia has now proposed to pay the entire $724 million with new IANs said to be worth only about 13 percent of their face value. Russian officials in Moscow have been quoted as saying there would be an additional $216 million cash interest payment. The "Moscow Times" reports that Russia feels an obligation to honor this paper, but the banks involved in the London talks said they have seen nothing on that. A Deutsche Bank spokesman says this issue may be taken up this week by negotiators from the banks but that most of their attention is still focused on the agreement in principle announced two weeks ago on the Russian government treasury notes, known as GKOs. The spokesman said a number of subcommittees of commercial bankers are still working on the Russian offer of a complicated mix of instruments to handle the approximately $10 billion owed on the GKOs to foreign commercial creditors. There continue to be disagreements among the Western banks involved. One group--those with continuing active business involvement in Russia--are willing to take more ruble-denominated securities that could be used only for transactions within Russia. A second group wants to get hard currency out as quickly as possible. Russian official government debt to other countries--handled through the so- called Paris Club of official creditors -- amounted to more than $50.4 billion at the end of 1996. But that is nearly covered by the more than $47 billion other countries owe Russia. Most are Soviet-era debts owed by poor, developing countries. Russia's other big foreign debt is what it owes the IMF, the World Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, totaling more than $25.5 billion. Russian officials last week suggested they might ask the IMF to "reschedule" what Moscow is due to repay the fund in 1999, but IMF officials have underscored that the fund does not and will not reschedule debt owed by member countries. IMF officials will not say exactly how much Russia is due to repay in 1999-- it has kept up its repayments so far on a total debt of $19.58 billion-- but United Financial estimates that $4.8 billion is due next year. IMF officials point out that the repayment schedule is heavier in later years because of grace periods in some of the loans. The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Washington. Floriana Fossato, a Moscow-based RFE/RL correspondent, contributed to this article. 02-12-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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