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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 230, 98-12-01Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 230, 1 December 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] AZERBAIJANI OIL CONSORTIUM TERMINATES OPERATIONSCipco, the second international consortium to be established to exploit Azerbaijan's offshore oil reserves, announced on 30 November that it is terminating operations in Azerbaijan following the failure of three trial wells to yield the hoped-for reserves of oil, according to the Dow Jones News Service. The consortium was set up in November 1995 by Pennzoil, Agip, LUKoil and Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR to develop the Karabakh field. All three trial wells drilled in that field this year have yielded gas condensate but only the third well produced oil, though not in commercially viable quantities. LF[02] GEORGIA ON TRACK FOR ADMISSION TO COUNCIL OF EUROPEThe Political Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has drafted a proposal recommending Georgia's acceptance as a full member of that body, Reuters and ITAR-TASS reported on 30 November. The proposal characterizes Georgia as a pluralistic, democratic state but sets conditions for full membership, including ratifying the European Human Rights Convention and the framework convention on national minorities, and taking measures to safeguard the freedom of the press and improve the work of local authorities. Georgian press reports had suggested that Georgia's full membership might be contingent on measures to expedite the repatriation of Meskhetians deported from southern Georgia in 1944. LF[03] ARMENIAN PARTIES CONTINUE DISCUSSIONS OF ELECTION LAWAt its 18th congress on 26 November, the Self-Determination Union unanimously condemned as undemocratic the election law passed by the parliament on 16 November, Noyan Tapan reported. But congress delegates also approved measures aimed at amending that law, including an appeal to the Yerkrapah parliamentary group that drafted it and an alliance with other opposition groups. Parliamentary deputy speaker Albert Bazeyan (Yerkrapah) rejected charges by the former majority Hanrapetutiun faction that the vote on the law was undemocratic. Bazeyan added that Yerkrapah is currently holding talks with representatives of 16 parties, including the Communist Party of Armenia, that have proposed amendments to the law. LF[04] UZBEK PRESIDENT DENIES ANY ROLE IN TAJIK REBELLION...At a press conference in Tashkent on 30 November, Uzbek President Islam Karimov denied his country had any role in the rebellion in northern Tajikistan early last month (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 November 1998), ITAR- TASS and Interfax reported. Karimov said the fighting in Tajikistan's Leninabad Oblast was the result of an inter-clan struggle for power. He noted that while "there is no alternative" to the peace agreement signed in Moscow in June 1997, which, he pointed out, provides for "dividing portfolios between the Kulyab clan [in southern Tajikistan] led by [President Imomali] Rakhmonov and the United Tajik Opposition." Karimov said implicating his country in Tajikistan's problems is "an attempt to steer toward inter-ethnic and inter-state confrontation." He added "it's very convenient to find an outside enemy." BP[05] ...CRITICIZES TAJIK GOVERNMENT, RUSSIA'S FSBKarimov also said that drug-trafficking is conducted on a large scale in Tajikistan and that tons of narcotics are detained at the Uzbek and Kyrgyz borders with that country. "Both governing and law-enforcement bodies are involved in the drug business," he argued, warning that the "Uzbek-Tajik frontier will be strengthened and a visa regime introduced if necessary." The Uzbek president then implicated Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in the attempted rebellion, saying "certain Russian special services" are seeking to estrange Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Karimov identified the FSB's Colonel Rizo Tursunov as coordinating measures to escalate tensions between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. And he also claimed he had all the evidence necessary to prove Tursunov's role. The FSB released a statement later the same day expressing surprise at Karimov's comments and rejecting all accusations. BP[06] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT VISITS TASHKENTAskar Akayev paid a one-day visit to the Uzbek capital on 30 November to meet with his Uzbek counterpart, Islam Karimov, RFE/RL correspondents reported. The main aim of his visit was reportedly to seek to ensure uninterrupted supplies of Uzbek gas. Kyrgyzstan owes $3.3 million for supplies, and Uzbekistan has threatened to stop all deliveries on 1 December. The two sides reached an agreement whereby Kyrgyzstan will pay 70 percent of its gas debt by means of goods and hydro-electric power. BP[07] KAZAKH PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN BEGINSFollowing the close of registering for the 10 January presidential elections and with the field narrowed to four candidates (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 November 1998), incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev told a group of foreign diplomats the elections will be "just and democratic," Interfax reported on 30 November. Nazarbayev said he is "pained" by U.S. criticism of the election process, specifically the court decision barring former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin from participating because of a minor offense. But he added that the U.S. statement "mixes two separate problems--one is [related to] specific election legislation, the second is the practical implementation of the laws of a country," ITAR-TASS reported. Pensioner Karishal Assanov, told RFE/RL correspondents on 29 November that he was withdrawing his candidacy for the elections as he did not wish to take part in the "farce" being organized in Kazakhstan. BP[08] TAJIKISTAN UNPREPARED FOR WINTERITAR-TASS reported on 29 November that there is a critical shortage in Tajikistan of supplies necessary for the winter. Compared with 1997, Tajikistan's coal supplies are down by half and domestic heating oil by 21 percent. Industries purchased less than half the oil they did in 1997, when there were also shortages. The government cannot afford to purchase additional supplies. Consumer goods are also reported to be in short supply, but 98 percent of those goods are dealt with by the private sector. Also, the government has already rationed electricity supplies to homes and industries. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] U.S. GIVES 'ARMORED ESCORT' TO SERBIAN POLICEReuters on 1 December quoted unnamed U.S. diplomats as saying that "U.S. observers have agreed to give an armored escort to Serb police patrols that run through hostile territory to [Malisheva] and keep the [Serbian paramilitary] police base [there] provisioned." The agency also reported that an unnamed senior U.S. official said "the escorts make the Serbs feel more comfortable as they haven't been attacked while we've been accompanying them." U.S. diplomat William Walker, who heads the OSCE verification mission in Kosova, recently urged Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to withdraw the local police garrison, which was not stationed in Malisheva before the current conflict. Milosevic said he will consider pulling the garrison out but stressed the need to prevent the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) from retaking the area. U.S. diplomats reportedly decided to escort the police to prevent the UCK from regaining the upper hand. PM[10] WALKER EXPECTS MONITORS IN PLACE BY JANUARYWalker told a press conference in Prishtina on 30 November that he expects all 2,000 unarmed OSCE "verifiers" to have arrived in Kosova by 1 January. He added that "bringing in 2,000 people from 54 countries is not an easy function. We will be up and operational in a very robust fashion within the next few weeks." Walker also noted that a political settlement must be in place before the monitors can begin one of their most important tasks, namely organizing elections for offices to be determined in the political settlement. U.S. envoy Chris Hill has put forward a draft plan that would give Kosova a high degree of autonomy at the provincial level, but a Serbian draft concentrates autonomy at the local level and gives all ethnic groups an equal political voice, regardless of their respective sizes. In recent days, at least three top Serbian officials have publicly said that Hill's plan is unacceptable, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[11] ALBANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER PRAISES UCK'S FLEXIBILITYPaskal Milo told Reuters in Copenhagen on 30 November that "it is important for the Albanians in Kosova to play a part in their own future. The UCK is going to be seen now as a political factor, not as military one." He was referring to a statement by UCK political representative Adem Demaci that his group is ready to "temporarily" renounce demands for full independence in exchange for an "interim" status as a federal Yugoslav republic (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 November 1998). Milo stressed that "all the main [ethnic Albanian] parties and [politicians] are working...to convince [the UCK] that it is not the time to ask for independence." He added that the UCK must become "much more realistic, moderate..., [and willing to seek] compromises.... We do not have any other solution than...through dialogue." FS[12] CROATIAN POLICE INTERCEPT KOSOVA-BOUND ARMSA police spokesman in Sibenik said on 30 November that police have discovered arms and ammunition worth $1 million in warehouses near the harbor. The goods had arrived from Bosnia and were awaiting shipment to the Albanian port of Durres and then on to Kosova. Police arrested four Bosnians and a Croat in conjunction with the incident, but five other suspects, including at least one Kosovar, remain at large. Interior Minister Ivan Penic said in Zagreb that it was the largest weapons- smuggling operation yet uncovered in Croatia and that the operation was the work of organized criminal groups. PM[13] TUDJMAN TO MEET WITH OPPOSITION?Vladimir Seks, who is the parliamentary faction leader for the governing Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), said in Zagreb on 30 November that President Franjo Tudjman will soon meet with representatives of the opposition coalition of six parties. Seks added that opposition demands for changes in the electoral law and for a parliamentary investigation of the secret services will be on the agenda. He added that Tudjman will meet separately with representatives of other opposition parties, which are mainly tiny, right-wing groups. On 28 November, opposition coalition leader Vlado Gotovac said that the leaders of the six parties want to meet with Tudjman in his capacity as head of the HDZ and not as head of state. He added that they do not want members of the right-wing groups to be present. "Novi List" wrote on 30 November that the HDZ and opposition alike are playing "tactical games" in the runup to the talks, which, the Rijeka daily noted, may never take place. PM[14] CROATIA, SLOVENIA MOVING TOWARD SETTLEMENTCroatian Foreign Minister Mate Granic and his Slovenian counterpart Boris Frlec told a press conference near Ljubljana on 30 November that their one-day meeting succeeded in clearing up all but one of the outstanding questions involving the demarcation of their common land border. They did not specify which issue remains, but Frlec noted that the two solved the dispute over the Sveta Gera mountain peak, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The two sides hope to have a solution by Christmas to their most important border problem, namely the maritime frontier in the Gulf of Piran, "Novi List" quoted Granic as saying. An agreement will probably be signed soon on the ownership and use of the Krsko nuclear power plant, which is in Slovenia but was built partly with Croatian funding. Granic added, however, that the dispute over Croatian accounts in a Slovenian bank will most likely go to international arbitration. PM[15] DEADLOCK CONTINUES IN BANJA LUKAHard-line deputy Dragan Kalinic, whom Republika Srpska President Nikola Poplasen has asked to form a government, said in Banja Luka on 30 November that he has not yet succeeded in putting together his cabinet. Spokesmen for the Social Democrats called on Kalinic to let someone else try to form a government because the hard-liners lack a majority in the assembly, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Bosnian Serb capital. The office of the international community's Carlos Westendorp wants a government led by moderate Serbs with the backing of Muslim and Croatian deputies. PM[16] DISPUTE OVER HUMAN REMAINS IN SARAJEVOA dispute continues between Muslim and Serbian forensic experts over the identification of 55 sets of remains exhumed recently in two cemeteries in the Bosnian capital, Reuters reported on 29 November. Bosnian Serb officials charge that the persons were Serbian civilians who were killed by Muslims during the 1992-1995 Serbian siege of Sarajevo, according to "Vesti." Muslim spokesmen argue that the identity of the dead has not been determined and that they were most likely killed by renegade Bosnian army units commanded by Musan Topalovic "Caco." PM[17] ALBANIAN POLICE SHOOT SMUGGLER COLLEAGUESpecial police forces killed a local policeman in a shoot-out near Shkodra on 29 November, AP reported. The local policeman and two of his colleagues had taken a customs official hostage and begun shooting at the special police units. Those police forces had seized three trucks loaded with 60 tons of corn and coffee smuggled into the country from Montenegro. The dead policeman's brother was wounded in the shoot-out. FS[18] ROMANIA DENIES MILITARY CONTACT WITH IRAQSpokesman for both the Foreign and Defense Ministries on 30 November denied any knowledge that Iraqi officials visited Bucharest in May in a bid to purchase ballistic- missile guidance systems from the Romanian Aerofina company. In a statement released to the press, Aerofina said a CNN report on 29 November was "erroneous." According to that report, the negotiations lasted a week before ending in failure and were monitored by the intelligence services of the U.S., Romania, and Israel. Romanian Ambassador to the U.S. Mircea Geoana has confirmed the report, telling CNN that Aerofina negotiated with Iraq in 1995 and that those responsible for those negotiations had been "rapidly and severely reprimanded." Geoana said that last May, Iraq tried to renew those contacts. Former Premier Nicolae Vacaroiu and former Defense Minister Gheorghe Tinca have both denied that in 1995 Romania broke the embargo against Iraq. MS[19] IRON GUARD PLANS COMEBACK IN ROMANIAThe Legionary Movement, also known as the Iron Guard, plans to register as a political party in June 1999, Mediafax reported on 29 November, quoting Nicador Zelea Codreanu, a nephew of the fascist movement's interwar "Captain," Corneliu Zelea Codreanu. Nicador Zelea Codreanu said the new party will be called the National Union for Christian Rebirth because the authorities would not allow the movement to register under its old name. A crowd of very old and very young "Guardists" gathered in a forest at Tancabesti, near Bucharest, on 29 November to mark the 60the anniversary of the assassination of Corneliu Zelea Codreanu there on the orders of King Carol II. MS[20] MOLDOVAN AGRARIANS ELECT NEW CHAIRMANAn extraordinary congress of the Democratic Agrarian Party of Moldova (PDAM) elected Anatol Popusoi as its new chairman on 27 November, Infotag reported. Popusoi is considered to belong to the PDAM's conservative wing. He replaces Dumitru Motpan, who resigned after taking responsibility for the party's disastrous performance in the May 1998 elections. Formerly the largest parliamentary group, the PDAM failed to win representation in the new legislature. MS[21] BULGARIAN GOVERNMENT APPROVES SLASHING THREE ZEROES FROM CURRENCYThe government on 30 November approved a draft law that would remove three zeroes from the national currency, the lev, as of 1 July, Reuters reported. The draft law implements a decision taken in August by the cabinet and the Currency Board (see "RFE/RL Newsline, 10 August 1998). Finance Minister Muravei Radev said the government does not expect inflation to rise because of the re-denomination. MS[C] END NOTE[22] REALIST LUZHKOV VERSUS POPULIST LUZHKOVby Floriana FossatoThe Moscow city government's budget meeting last week was dominated by two issues: how to maintain services amid the deep economic turmoil in the country and where to get the necessary funds to guarantee existing city programs. For the populist mayor of Moscow, Yurii Luzhkov, the realization that the Moscow city government's once-bottomless coffers are running dry poses several important challenges. The first of those challenges is economic. Until recently, Moscow was considered an island of relative prosperity in a sea of economic disarray. But as Russia's economic crisis deepens, both the image of the Moscow miracle and Luzhkov's reputation as one of the few Russian political bosses who can get things done are rapidly coming under threat. Political analysts say that to preserve his image, Luzhkov the populist has to transform himself into Luzhkov the realist. At the meeting of the Moscow city government on 24 November, deputy mayor Yurii Razlyak said that projected budget revenues in 1999 will be the same or even less than this year. Other city officials said the situation is made worse by the fact that tax collection is shrinking dramatically. And in order to service some $1.5 billion in foreign debt, Moscow will have to pay $120 million in 1999, which, according to city officials, is equal to 45 percent of the city's hard-currency reserves. One of Luzhkov's most persistent critics, Aleksei Ulyukaev, deputy director of the Institute for the Economy in Transition, told RFE/RL that "Moscow's budget situation is very serious," adding that "the real base of the budget is shrinking." Luzhkov's second challenge stems from the dilemma over how to introduce unpopular measures without damaging his position as one of the main contenders for the Russian presidency. Political analysts say that Luzhkov's launching in mid-November of a political movement, Otechestvo [Fatherland], represents the opening of his presidential campaign. Having decided to abandon a short and largely unproductive flirtation with the Communists, Luzhkov said his movement will "absorb everything that is logical from the left and everything that is logical from the right" but will "avoid all radicalism either of the right or the left." Acutely aware of the need to maintain social services despite Moscow's economic troubles, Luzhkov told city officials at the 24 November city government meeting that social programs, including plans to build new schools and medical clinics in Moscow, should continue. Financial officials replied that funds to make up for the shortfall in tax revenues could come from new Western credits, from increased revenue earned by government- controlled alcohol sales, or from the introduction of a new sales tax and other unpopular fiscal measures. Saying that fresh Western credits should be avoided, Luzhkov was forced to approve some unpopular moves. Among those moves is an increase by one-third of monthly Moscow city travel cards beginning in January. Moscow apartment rents and utilities will rise by 30-50 percent over the next few months. And the cost of water will increase 45 percent in December, while rents will go up another 50 percent next April and heat and electricity by 30 percent next July. According to Ulyukaev, unpopular measures have been taken but "without too much publicity." He added that Luzhkov's social program for Moscow is unrealistic and "financing it will be difficult, but [for political reasons] it must continue until the presidential elections." At the city government meeting, Luzhkov also introduced a new colleague, President Boris Yeltsin's former spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhembskii, who was abruptly fired in mid-September. Following much speculation, Yastrzhembskii was appointed Luzhkov's deputy in charge of public relations and regional and international affairs. Yastrzhembskii, for his part, has not denied Russian media reports that he was fired by Yeltsin for promoting the Moscow mayor as a candidate for prime minister over Yevgenii Primakov. (Other former Yeltsin aides, including ex- Security Council chief Andrei Kokoshin and former Interior Minister Anatolii Kulikov have also joined forces with Luzhkov.) Russian media had suggested that Yastrzhembskii would be brought into the Moscow government to promote Luzhkov in his presidential bid. In the past, the former presidential spokesman was widely credited with giving a smooth, professional face to the Kremlin press service and frequently rescuing Yeltsin from his own words and actions. Attending his first city hall meeting last week, Yastrzhembskii did not rule out the possibility of assuming the role of Luzhkov's new image maker. He warned journalists that the race for the presidency has not yet officially started but said that if he were asked to help Luzhkov, he would certainly do so. "If the electoral trumpet sounds, I think I will take part in this campaign," he commented. The author is a Moscow-based RFE/RL correspondent. 01-12-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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