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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 61, 98-03-30
CONTENTS
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[01] SITUATION REMAINS TENSE IN CENTRAL TAJIKISTAN
[02] UZBEK PRESIDENT ON CENTRAL ASIAN UNION
[03] KAZAKH COUNCIL ASKED TO REVIEW FREQUENCY AUCTION
[04] ARMENIA VOTES FOR PRESIDENT
[05] ABKHAZIA AGAINST GEORGIAN APPEAL TO CIS
[06] AZERBAIJAN, RUSSIA ANNOUNCE SHIFTS ON CASPIAN
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[07] UCK OFFERS SERBS CHOICE
[08] THIRD ETHNIC ALBANIAN DIES FOLLOWING LATEST FIGHTING
[09] BELGRADE RAPS FOREIGN MEDIA
[10] BULGARIA WARNS ABOUT SITUATION IN KOSOVO
[11] MONTENEGRO SLAMS MILOSEVIC...
[12] ...AS DOES ALBANIA
[13] NATO SENDS EXPERTS TO ALBANIA
[14] ALBANIAN PRIME MINISTER TO STREAMLINE GOVERNMENT
[15] CROATIAN SERBS WARN TUDJMAN
[16] CIORBEA'S DEPARTURE--NOT IF, BUT WHEN
[17] LIBERALS APPROVE DEMAND FOR CIORBEA'S REPLACEMENT
[18] INDEPENDENT CABINET MINISTERS WARN AGAINST LINGERING CRISIS
[19] MOLDOVA'S DEMOCRATIC FORCES LEADER RULES OUT COALITION WITH COMMUNISTS
[C] END NOTE
[20] 'BLANK SPOTS' AND 'GRAY ZONES'
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[01] SITUATION REMAINS TENSE IN CENTRAL TAJIKISTAN
Opposition fighters led by field commander Pir Muhammad has released 16
government soldiers whom they were holding in the Kofarnikhon region, ITAR-
TASS and Reuters reported on 29 March. Two other field commanders
continue to hold more than 60 government troops captive, having released
some 40 on 30 March. A tentative cease- fire agreement was reached the
previous day between the fields commanders and a team of representatives of
the government and United Tajik Opposition. That accord provided for the
withdrawal of all armed forces from the Kofarnikhon region. But ITAR-TASS
reports that fighting broke out again on the evening of 29 March and
continued the next day. BP
[02] UZBEK PRESIDENT ON CENTRAL ASIAN UNION
Following a meeting of the presidents of Central Asian Union in Tashkent on
27 March, Islam Karimov said Tajikistan had made "a historic decision" in
joining the union, whose founding members are Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and
Kyrgyzstan, Interfax reported. Karimov added that he hopes Turkmenistan
will soon join the organization so that "the Central Asian region will be
completely represented." With regard to Russia, which has observer status
in the union, Karimov commented that Central Asia "cannot do without Russia,
just as Russia cannot do without Central Asia." BP
[03] KAZAKH COUNCIL ASKED TO REVIEW FREQUENCY AUCTION
The Kazakh International Bureau on Human Rights has called on the country's
Constitutional Council to examine the 1997 auction for frequencies, AFP
reported on 27 March. Jemis Turmagambetova, the deputy director of
the bureau, said the auction failed to "correspond to the spirit and letter
of Kazakhstan's constitution." Turmagambetova also commented that the state
"abuses its monopolist rights to own the broadcasting spectrum" in
order to regulate the "broadcasting opportunities of certain television and
broadcasting companies." Three television and radio stations recently
appealed their failed bids at the 1997 auction. BP
[04] ARMENIA VOTES FOR PRESIDENT
Armenians go to the polls on 30 March to choose between acting President
and Prime Minister Robert Kocharian and former Soviet-era Communist Party
leader Karen Demirchyan in a run-off election for president. The campaign
ended on 29 March with each of the candidates accusing the other of
dishonest behavior and election fraud, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported.
Kocharian also lashed out at the international community for its criticism
of the Armenian elections: "We are electing a president for ourselves...,
not for the international community," he said. In final campaign
appearances, Kocharyan announced he would create a special political
council of the heads of Armenia's leading political parties to help guide
the country, while Demirchyan said he would devote all his energies to
improving the country's economy. Public opinion polls suggest the race may
be extremely close. Final results are not expected until 31 March at the
earliest. PG
[05] ABKHAZIA AGAINST GEORGIAN APPEAL TO CIS
An Abkhaz Foreign Ministry official told ITAR-TASS on 28 March that any CIS
decision on that breakaway republic that did not take Sukhumi's views into
account would have serious consequences. Georgian President Eduard
Shevardnadze earlier asked that the CIS presidents seek to come up with a
plan for resolving the Abkhaz conflict. Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign
Ministry issued a statement on 28 March noting that tensions between
Georgia and Abkhazia are growing, Interfax reported. The statement
placed most of the blame on Georgia, which has recently introduced
additional military equipment into border areas. PG
[06] AZERBAIJAN, RUSSIA ANNOUNCE SHIFTS ON CASPIAN
Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev on 27 March called for the
demilitarization of the Caspian, ITAR-TASS reported. On a visit to Baku the
next day, Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Pastukhov said Moscow
now backs the division of the Caspian into sectors, a shift Azerbaijani
officials welcomed. But Russian press reports that the two sides have
signed a protocol on this point are premature, an RFE/RL correspondent in
Moscow reported 29 March. And Pastukhov said Moscow is also prepared to
increase the annual capacity of the Baku-Novorossiisk oil pipeline to 17
million tons in the near future, which would allow Azerbaijani oil to flow
westward sooner than via Georgia. Both these developments are part of an
effort by Moscow to warm relations with Baku, Interfax reported on 28
March. PG
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[07] UCK OFFERS SERBS CHOICE
A spokesman for the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) told Reuters on 30 March
that a peaceful solution is still possible to the Kosovo question
provided that Serbian forces leave the province immediately and the Serbian
authorities launch talks with the Kosovars. The spokesman added: "We have
always favored independence through negotiation but in recent years we
started to fight because nothing was changing in our situation and there
were no meaningful talks. It's up to the Serbs whether we fight or talk. If
they want to negotiate they must first withdraw their police and other
forces. We won't walk away from negotiations, but we won't lay down our
weapons either." The spokesman stressed that the Serbs "have already lost
the war" because the UCK's morale is higher than that of the Serbian
paramilitary police. PM
[08] THIRD ETHNIC ALBANIAN DIES FOLLOWING LATEST FIGHTING
Spokesmen for the leading Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) said in
Pristina on 29 March that a third ethnic Albanian has died of wounds he
received in last week's fighting in the Djakovica-Decani area. The
authorities said on 24 March that one Serbian policeman died as well (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 25 March 1998). PM
[09] BELGRADE RAPS FOREIGN MEDIA
Yugoslav Information Minister Goran Matic said in Belgrade on 29 March that
the VOA, CNN, the BBC, Deutsche Welle, "and others" have "massacred the
truth in Kosovo" through their reporting on the ongoing Serbian crackdown.
He said that domestic Yugoslav radio stations that rebroadcast the foreign
stations' reports are guilty of "subversion" and of being "a Fifth Column."
Referring to unnamed foreign journalists who have reported on the UCK,
Matic added that "our state must establish a clear relationship [with]
certain foreign journalists that are in contact with Albanian armed
terrorist groups." In Washington, the VOA's Croatian Service denied the
charges in its morning broadcast on 30 March. The VOA said it is committed
to accurate and objective reporting. PM
[10] BULGARIA WARNS ABOUT SITUATION IN KOSOVO
Foreign Minister Nadezhda Mihailova said in Belgrade on 28 March that
Kosovo cannot be considered a purely internal affair of Yugoslavia, as the
Yugoslav authorities maintain. She stressed that a large number of
countries have become involved in finding a solution to the Kosovo
question. Mihailova added that Yugoslavia's neighbors fear that events in
Kosovo could lead to problems in their own countries and that consequently
"Kosovo could become an internal affair of the neighboring countries,"
RFE/RL reported. PM
[11] MONTENEGRO SLAMS MILOSEVIC...
Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic said in Podgorica on 29 March
that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic had been both rude and
politically unwise in refusing to meet with U.S. special envoy Robert
Gelbard two days earlier (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 March 1998). Vujanovic
stated: "If you want to talk to the international community, you don't
refuse to receive the emissary of the president of the United States.... We
must respect the emissaries of those who have the political and economic
power. It is an elementary obligation toward citizens and the economy whose
fate depends on what emerges from dialogue with these envoys, and above all
it's a question of elementary political decency." PM
[12] ...AS DOES ALBANIA
Prime Minister Fatos Nano told a cabinet meeting on 28 March that through
his handling of the Kosovo question, Milosevic "has lost a chance to join
the civilized world." Nano added that he is optimistic that the efforts of
the international community will prevent Kosovo from experiencing the open
warfare that Bosnia did. Earlier in Bonn, the prime minister told "Nasa
Borba" of 30 March that Kosovo should have the same rights within
the Yugoslav federation as Montenegro does. Nano stressed that Kosovo
should not have the right to secede from Yugoslavia but that it should be
able to "open up to and integrate with countries in the region." PM
[13] NATO SENDS EXPERTS TO ALBANIA
A NATO spokesman said in Brussels on 27 March that the alliance will send
eight teams of border monitoring experts to Albania over the next two
months. The decision follows a recent request by the Albanian government
for NATO support in guarding its border with Kosovo (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
12 March 1998). Each team will consist of seven people, including
both civilian and military personnel. The first team is scheduled to arrive
this week. The official added that NATO will "consider additional
activities in the next months to help Albania." NATO has ruled out sending
ground troops to help patrol the border. FS
[14] ALBANIAN PRIME MINISTER TO STREAMLINE GOVERNMENT
Fatos Nano told a government meeting on 28 March said that he will soon
announce measures to streamline the government. Pandeli Majko, the leader
of the Socialist Party's parliamentary faction, recently requested such a
move. Nano called on the current coalition parties to take part in
negotiations on the composition of a new, smaller cabinet, "Gazeta
Shqiptare" reported. FS
[15] CROATIAN SERBS WARN TUDJMAN
Speaking in Zagreb on 30 March, Deputy Prime Minister Ljerka Mintas-Hodak
said countries that want Croatia to expedite the return of Serbian refugees
should help pay for it. She argued that it is unfair for donor countries to
make aid dependent on the successful return of refugees. She asked that aid
be given outright, before the returns are completed. Speaking in Vukovar on
29 March, Gelbard warned Croatia that it must enable more Serbs to return
in safety if it expects economic and political support from the
international community. And in Zagreb, ethnic Serbian leaders Milorad
Pupovac and Vladimir Stanimirovic said they will withdraw from the joint
commission aimed at confidence-building if President Franjo Tudjman does
not take concrete measures by 15 March to ensure the return of more Serbian
refugees, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Croatian capital. PM
[16] CIORBEA'S DEPARTURE--NOT IF, BUT WHEN
The Bureau of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD)
on 27 March empowered PNTCD leader Ion Diaconescu to start "immediate
negotiations" with "all coalition partners" to find a solution to the
ongoing political crisis. PNTCD Secretary-General Radu Vasile said the
search for a solution does not exclude" forming a new government." But
also on 27 March, the Democratic Convention of Romania (CDR), said it wants
the draft 1998 budget to be submitted to the parliament by Victor Ciorbea's
cabinet. The CDR decided that if the National Liberal Party (PNL) congress
approves the resolution demanding the premier's replacement, such a move
would be viewed as a "PNL proposal to be discussed by the CDR." Following
that anouncement, Ciorbea withdrew his demand that the PNL ministers
resign. MS
[17] LIBERALS APPROVE DEMAND FOR CIORBEA'S REPLACEMENT
A PNL congress on 28 March approved the resolution adopted by the party's
bureau demanding that the cabinet be replaced before the budget is
submitted to the parliament. The congress also approved the merger of
the PNL with the Party of Civic Alliance (PAC) and elected former PAC
chairman Nicolae Manolescu as chairman of the PNL National Council. The
following day, the Democratic Party welcomed the PNL's decision, and the
Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania's Executive Council said
coalition members must begin negotiations on forming a new cabinet
immediately rather than waiting for the passage of the 1998 budget. MS
[18] INDEPENDENT CABINET MINISTERS WARN AGAINST LINGERING CRISIS
In an open letter to Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea on 28 March, the three
non-party affiliated ministers in his cabinet warned that the ongoing
political crisis threatens to have "irreparable results." Finance
Minister Daniel Daianu, Reforms Minister Ilie Serbanescu, and Foreign
Minister Andrei Plesu said that structural problems are at the root of the
crisis, rather than "personalities, programs, or ideologies." They added
that there are "neither providential individuals nor miraculous recipes" to
solve the crisis, arguing that a solution requires "firm and consistent
measures" rather than the "populism, demagogy, and electoral incitement"
characterizing the current political discourse. MS
[19] MOLDOVA'S DEMOCRATIC FORCES LEADER RULES OUT COALITION WITH COMMUNISTS
Valeriu Matei on 27 March said the "ideological and political barriers"
that are dividing his Party of Democratic Forces (PFD) and the Party
of Moldovan Communists (PCM) are "insurmountable" and that no coalition
involving both those formation is feasible. Matei was responding to PCM
leader Vladimir Voronin's statement the previous day that a coalition could
be formed by the PCM, the pro-presidential For a Democratic and Prosperous
Moldova (PMPD) Bloc, and "possibly the PFD." Matei said his party continues
to opt for a coalition with the PMPD and the Democratic Convention of
Moldova , RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. MS
[C] END NOTE
[20] 'BLANK SPOTS' AND 'GRAY ZONES'
by Paul Goble Boris Yeltsin's claim that he and the leaders of France
and Germany are in complete agreement about the future of Europe has sent
shock waves through the countries situated in the zone between those three
great powers. Following an informal summit outside Moscow with French
President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl on 26 March,
Yeltsin said the three leaders had "agreed on all points. There are no
'blank spots.'" While Yeltsin suggested that this accord pointed the way
toward a multipolar world--one in which no country would suffer--
many states lying between NATO and the EU in the West and Russia in the
East drew a different conclusion. The countries of this zone--sometimes
called "gray" because of its lack of a clear geopolitical definition--have
suffered when Russia and the West have disagreed. But they have also
suffered when Russia and the West have agreed--especially if the agreement
is about them. This last kind of agreement appeared very much in
evidence at the so-called "troika" summit outside Moscow. Following
Yeltsin's claim of complete unanimity, Kohl took the occasion to adopt a
very hard line toward Latvia, a country with which Moscow has been having
difficulties. Condemning a recent march by veterans of the World
War II-era Latvian Waffen SS Legion, Kohl noted that the EU would evaluate
applicant countries according to their human rights record and also
according to their relations with their neighbors. The Russian news agency
ITAR-TASS, which gave extensive coverage to Kohl's remarks, quoted
the French president that he fully agrees with the German chancellor on
this point. No one could fault any of the three leaders for being
concerned about the human rights records of countries seeking to join
Western institutions, but there are three reasons why their comments at the
Troika summit have troubled some East Europeans. First, despite Yeltsin's
claims, Kohl's comments, and Chirac's apparent agreement, most
international agencies and observers have found Latvia to be in compliance
with the generally accepted human rights norms. Russian claims to the
contrary, including Moscow Mayor Yurii Luzhkov's recent suggestion that the
Russian government should use all means "short of force" to defend the
rights of ethnic Russians in Latvia, are one thing. But German and French
acquiescence with these Russian claims are quite another. Not surprisingly,
the stance of Kohl and Chirac is troubling to governments and peoples who
remember occasions in the past when Western leaders have deferred to
Russian demands with respect to their fate. Second, Kohl's assertion that
the EU will evaluate applicant countries in terms of the quality of their
relations with their neighbors enhances Moscow's ability to influence not
only Eastern Europe but Western Europe as well. On the one hand, Moscow can
use its power to define the nature of these relationships as a threat to
extract concessions from its neighbors. If those countries do not
do what Russia wants, Moscow will say that relations are bad and will limit
their chances of entering the West. On the other hand, by accepting this
Russian claim, West European countries like Germany and France are in
effect accepting the notion that Russia should have an effective veto over
just how far east Western institutions should be allowed to move.
And third, Kohl's remarks and Chirac's agreement quickly led to reports
that the three summit participants have agreed that the Baltic States, as
well as perhaps other East European countries, should not be allowed to
join NATO. So widespread were such reports that ITAR- TASS even queried
Paris on them. An anonymous senior official in the French President's
Office said Chirac had not taken a position on Baltic membership in NATO in
Moscow because those countries are not yet candidates. But if his words on
that point were likely to be reassuring to the Balts, another remark by
this unnamed French official seems likely to have an opposite and
broader effect. The official suggested that the Moscow meeting demonstrated
Paris has dropped its historical policy of using "Russia as a counterweight
against Germany and vice versa." A belief that France was still pursuing
that approach has animated the foreign policies of many countries in
Eastern Europe, some of which assumed that their best course is to play off
France against Germany and both of those countries against Russia. But if
this latest statement from Paris is correct, then their hopes in this
regard have been misplaced. And they may now have to reassess their
relations not only with these three powers but with others as well.
To the extent that happens, the "troika" summit may prove to be a turning
point, one in which the absence of "blank spots" may lead to the darkening
of a "gray zone."
30-03-98
Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org
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