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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 60, 98-03-27Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 60, 27 March 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PREMIER COMMENTS ON ELECTION VIOLATIONS...Prime Minister and acting President Robert Kocharyan told journalists in Yerevan on 26 March that he has documentary evidence that supporters of rival candidates committed procedural violations during the16 March presidential vote. He said, however, that he will not make that evidence public, Noyan Tapan reported. Kocharyan said he has dismissed the prosecutor of Yerevan's Mashtots Raion for failing to open criminal proceedings into cases of such violations. And he denied he intends to introduce "a militarized state" in Armenia. Also on 26 March, the Armenian Communist Party issued a statement saying it will endorse neither Kocharyan nor former Communist Party First Secretary Karen Demirchyan in the 30 March runoff because their programs do not take into account the "interests of the working people," RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. LF[02] ...PREDICTS ROBUST ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 1998Kocharyan also said on 26 March that the economic outlook for Armenia for 1998 is positive and that economic growth is expected to reach 8-10 percent, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. He said the presence of leftist political groups in his electoral coalition will not affect his determination to continue with economic reform if he is elected president. Kocharyan drew parallels with some European countries where the Left is currently in power. "There is no alternative to a market economy," he said. He also remarked that the country's new prime minister should be a politician whose duties are not confined to managing the economy, but he declined to say whom he might appoint to that post. LF[03] ARMENIA "CANNOT AFFORD" PROFESSIONAL ARMYAddressing students in Yerevan on 25 March, Armenian Defense Minister Vazgen Sargsyan said the country cannot afford to maintain a professional army. But he denied rumors that the call-up period is to be extended from two to three years, Noyan Tapan reported. Sargsyan said Armenia is currently militarily stronger than Azerbaijan and is likely to remain so for 2-3 years, although the two countries have equal amounts of armaments. But he warned that "if some day Azerbaijan feels it is stronger than we are, it will resume hostilities regardless of opportunities to find a political settlement to the Karabakh conflict." LF[04] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION SUBJECT TO THREATS, VIOLENCEThe Azerbaijani Ministry of Justice has issued a statement warning that legal action will be taken against people "who do not observe law as well as [against] parties and public movements not registered at the Ministry of Justice and engaged in illegal activities," Turan reported on 26 March. The statement charges that the Brotherhood, Evolution, and Modern Turan parties are engaged in illegal activities. The ministry also considers that the Democratic Congress, the Round Table, the Azerbaijan National Committee of the Helsinki Civil Assembly, the Youth Organization Turan, and the Society for Protection of Oilmen's Rights are illegal. Meanwhile, Sardar Jalaloglu, secretary-general of the Azerbaijan Democratic Party, was hospitalized after he and two other ADP members were severely beaten near the party's headquarters the previous day by unidentified assailants. LF[05] CONFUSION OVER AZERBAIJANI AMBASSADOR TO IRAN CONTINUESAlirza Bikdeli, Tehran's ambassador in Baku, has denied that the car of Aliyar Safarli, the Azerbaijan's ambassador to Iran, was stopped and searched at the Astara check point on 20 March, Turan reported. He also denied that Tehran had demanded that Safarli be recalled, saying the matter was "an internal affair of Azerbaijan." Iranian press reports claim that Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mortez Sarmadi and Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev agreed to recall Safarli during talks in Baku on 17 March. LF[06] WHO KILLED ZVIAD GAMSAKHURDIA?Manana Archvadze-Gamsakhurdia, widow of the former Georgian president, has accused former Georgian Finance Minister Guram Absandze of instigating her husband's murder, Interfax reported. Absandze was extradited from Moscow to Tbilisi last week on suspicion of having financed the 9 February attempt to assassinate current Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze. Archvadze- Gamsakhurdia originally claimed that her husband committed suicide. She later said that members of his bodyguard team had shot him on orders from Bessarion Gugushvili, who was premier under Gamsakhurdia in late 1991. LF[07] GEORGIA CLAIMS OWNERSHIP OF RUSSIAN WINERIESGeorgian Deputy State Property Minister Zurab Bakhtadze told journalists on 26 March that Tbilisi is claiming ownership of seven wineries and distilleries in Russian cities, ITAR-TASS reported. Moscow, for its part, has laid claim to 70 Georgian facilities, mostly at health resorts on the Black Sea coast. LF[08] TAJIKISTAN ENTERS CENTRAL ASIAN CUSTOMS UNIONTajikistan has been accepted as a member of the Central Asian Customs Union, whose founding members are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, RFE/RL correspondents reported. Meeting in the Uzbek capital on 26 March, the presidents of the four countries also agreed to form an international hydroelectric consortium and reached accord on common principles for creating a securities market. Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov said Tajikistan's entry into the union makes it eligible for "concrete assistance" from the other three members. Kazakhstan's Nursultan Nazarbayev commented that integration of the Central Asian states "does not distance those countries from the CIS." BP[09] KARIMOV LASHES OUT AT PAKISTAN, WAHHABIS AGAINSpeaking to journalists in Tashkent on 26 March, the Uzbek president repeated his claim that Wahhabi militants are training in Pakistan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 February 1998), Interfax reported. Karimov also blasted human rights organizations for complaining about the treatment of those arrested in Namangan for their alleged role in violence there late last year. Those arrested had "killed people by cutting off their heads," Karimov said. He argued that human rights activists are "defending for the sake of defending." And he said that the trial of those arrested will be attended by journalists and observers from various countries. BP[10] TURKMEN PRESIDENT READY TO RELINQUISH SOME POWERSaparmurat Niyazov told the parliament on 26 March that he is prepared to give up some of his powers following the 1999 elections to the legislature, Interfax reported. He noted that there would be changes in the cabinet over the next two years but gave no details. Interfax cites observers as saying this means the post of prime minister will be reinstated. Currently, Niyazov heads the government. Also on 26 March, the parliament approved the draft of a new civil code. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[11] ALBANIA SAYS MILOSEVIC TRYING TO PROVOKE BACKLASHAlbanian Foreign Minister Paskal Milo said in Stockholm on 26 March that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic hopes the current crackdown in Kosovo will provoke a strong reaction from the Kosovars, which, Milo said, would enable Milosevic to justify an even more massive military intervention in the province. The minister added that Albania is preparing to defend itself from possible attacks by the Yugoslav military. Milo also urged the six- member international Contact Group to agree on tougher measures against Belgrade than it has to date in order to increase pressure on Milosevic. PM[12] MILOSEVIC SNUBS GELBARDMilosevic declined to meet on 27 March with Robert Gelbard, who is the U.S. special envoy to the former Yugoslavia. Gelbard told reporters in Belgrade that "if there is a failure to meet with us, that will tell us a great deal about [Milosevic's] position and his government's position." The previous day, Gelbard told Yugoslav Foreign Minister Zivadin Jovanovic and Serbian President Milan Milutinovic that the major powers are concerned over the lack of progress in solving the Kosovo problem and that they want the Serbs and Albanians to begin talks. Gelbard urged the 15-member Kosovar negotiating team in Pristina to begin negotiations with the Serbian authorities as soon as possible (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 March 1998). For several years, the Kosovars have been asking Belgrade for internationally mediated talks on the province's future. PM[13] COHEN CALLS RUSSIAN ARMS FOR SERBIA "COUNTERPRODUCTIVE"U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen said in Washington on 26 March that he hopes that recent media reports of a major Russian arms sale to Yugoslavia are not true (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 March 1998). Cohen added that any increase in the number of weapons in the region would be "counterproductive" and that the Dayton agreement bars Yugoslavia from significantly improving its military capabilities. PM[14] MONTENEGRINS SAY KOSOVO IS SERBIANMembers of a Montenegrin parliamentary delegation told a press conference in Washington on 26 March that Kosovo is historically Serbian and should remain so, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the U.S. capital. The U.S. Congress invited parliamentary speaker Svetozar Marovic and his delegation as part of Washington's efforts to promote reform in Yugoslavia. PM[15] CROATIA ACCUSES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY OF DOUBLE STANDARDSA spokesman for Carlos Westendorp, who is the international community's chief representative in Bosnia, said in Sarajevo on 26 March that Croatia has not observed its agreement to allow ethnic Serbs currently living in Banja Luka to visit their former homes in Croatia. Meanwhile in Zagreb, Prime Minister Zlatko Matesa told a delegation from the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe that the international community has not done enough to enable Croatian refugees to return to their homes in eastern Slavonia. Matesa added that the international community applies different criteria to the return of Croatian refugees than it does to refugees of other nationalities. PM[16] JOURNALISTS SENTENCED IN CROATIAA court in Zagreb on 26 March sentenced Vlado Vurusic, who is a journalist for the independent weekly "Globus," to two months in prison and his former editor-in-chief Davor Butkovic to four months for slander. Vurusic wrote in an article in the fall of 1997 that an indicted Bosnian Croat war criminal was living openly in Split and working for the Croatian Defense Ministry. PM[17] TURKEY, ALBANIA SIGN NAVAL BASE AGREEMENTOfficials from the Turkish and Albanian Defense Ministries signed an agreement on 25 March in Ankara providing for the reconstruction of the southern Albanian naval base of Pashaliman (see "RFE/RL Newsline" 23 January 1998). Turkey will contribute $7 million to the upgrading of training facilities and modernization of the Albanian navy, "Gazeta Shqiptare" reported. Pashaliman was the Ottoman Empire's main port on the Adriatic and the former USSR's only base on that sea during the early stages of the Cold War. FS[18] ITALIAN POLICE ARREST ALBANIAN ARMS GANGPolice in Bari on 25 March arrested 36 suspected arms smugglers, most of whom were Albanians, "Koha Jone" reported. Italian investigators found an arms cache containing hundreds of Kalashnikov machine guns. Police spokesmen said the gang had sold arms to four Italian Mafia organizations over the previous eight months. FS[19] ROMANIAN PREMIER WAGES WAR ON ALL FRONTSIn a televised address to the nation on 26 March, Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea demanded that ministers who are members of the National Liberal Party's (PNL) Executive Bureau either resign from that body or leave the government. Ciorbea was responding to a resolution, proposed by Justice Minister Valeriu Stoica and approved by the bureau, saying Ciorbea must be replaced to solve the current political crisis. The premier said the ministers must resign by 28 March, when a PNL congress is scheduled to take place. He added that if the Democratic Party votes against the draft budget, all its representatives at local government level and at the head of state government structures such as the State Property Fund will be dismissed. MS[20] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT MARKS UNIFICATION WITH BESSARABIAA special joint session of Romania's bicameral parliament on 26 March marked the 80th anniversary of the Bessarabian parliament's decision to unify the province (present-day Moldova) with Romania. Greater Romania Party leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor said his formation would like to use the occasion to pay "particular homage" to wartime leader Marshal Ion Antonescu. Tudor remarked that "those who condemned him to death" in 1946 do not let him rest in peace even now. And he argued that Romania must not hurry to sign the basic treaties with Moldova and Russia. Speaking for the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania, Dezideriu Garda said that what happened in "Russified Moldova" demonstrates that "no nation can be de- nationalized." MS[21] MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS COURT PRESIDENTIAL PARTYVladimir Voronin, the leader of the Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM), said on 26 March that his party is ready to set up a coalition with the pro- presidential For a Democratic and Prosperous Moldova Bloc (PMDP). He added that the Party of Democratic Forces (PFD) could also join such an alliance but noted such a development was "unlikely." Voronin said the only possibility the PCM rules out is a coalition with the Democratic Convention of Moldova. And he noted that his party would agree to have the PMDP appoint the premier in exchange for the chairmanship of the parliament. He also reminded the PMDP that the PCM supported President Petru Lucinschi in the late 1996 presidential race, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. MS[22] CONFUSION OVER ODESSA MEETINGIgor Smirnov, leader of the Transdniestrian separatists, claims that at the 20 March meeting in Odessa, Moldova, the Transdniester, Russia, and Ukraine reached an understanding on how to solve the conflict between Chisinau and Tiraspol, RFE/RL's bureau in the Moldovan capital reported on 26 March. None of the other participants in the 20 March meeting has made public reference to such an understanding. Smirnov also said that the dismissal of Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin-- who represented Moscow at the meeting-- "must not be dramatized." But he said that if the documents "signed at the four-side meeting are revoked," Tiraspol will not hesitate "to start afresh" its drive for recognition of Transdniester independence. MS[C] END NOTE[23] ECONOMIC DIVERSITY OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLICSby Michael WyzanA popular joke in the former Yugoslavia asks, if one returned to Europe at some distant point in the future, how many countries would one find? The answer: nine, namely, the EU and the eight regions of the former Yugoslavia. So far, only five new states have emerged from socialist Yugoslavia. But Kosovo and Montenegro are increasingly restive, and some Vojvodina politicians are demanding that the province receive as much autonomy as Belgrade grants Kosovo (although Kosovo's autonomy may in itself be negligible). Despite similarities stemming from their shared inheritance, the four escapees and Federal Yugoslavia have little in common economically. Each bears a certain resemblance to one or more transition economies elsewhere. Their analogs run the gamut from the most developed Central European countries to the poorest, most strife-ridden, and least reform-friendly lands of Central Asia. Slovenia is a stable and prosperous Visegrad country and member of the Central European Free Trade Area. Even so, its economic policy and performance are distinct from its Central European neighbors. External imbalances are modest and declining: the trade deficit reached $767 million in January-November 1997 (less than 4 percent of GDP and down from $1.04 billion in January-November 1996) and the current account surplus $70.1 million in 1997. A manageable external account distinguishes Slovenia from the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia and makes it compare to Hungary in this respect. However, unlike Hungary in 1995 and the Czech Republic in 1997, independent Slovenia has never experienced an economic crisis. Also, unlike most other Visegrad lands, Slovenia has not attracted significant amounts of foreign investment (less than $1 billion through October 1997), although its attractiveness for investors is increasing. Slovenia will probably maintain its slow but steady economic growth and cautious economic policy. It lacks Poland's or Hungary's dynamism but at the same time has eschewed Czech Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus's propensity for ideologically-inspired policy mistakes and the Czech Republic's fundamental disagreements over policy among political parties. Political factors have isolated Croatia from the EU. Despite its relatively advanced and reformed economy, it is not even considered a candidate for accession, a distinction it shares only with the Federal Yugoslavia. Like Slovakia, it is isolated from Europe for political reasons. And it also has in common with that country a rapid GDP growth (5.5 percent in Croatia and 5.9 percent in Slovakia last year) and worrying external imbalances (projected at about 11-12 percent of GDP in both in 1997). Another similarity is privatization methods that favor enterprise insiders and those connected to ruling political elites. However, Croatia has a more diversified economy than Slovakia's, with more world-class firms, such as drug- maker Pliva, which in April 1996 became the first company in the region to be listed on the London Stock Exchange. Croatia's economy is inextricably tied to Europe, while Slovakia's tendency to drift eastward in its economic relations is hardly possible in a country never part of the Soviet trading bloc. The other three former Yugoslav republics have features in common with certain former Soviet republics. Macedonia, like Moldova, has generally exhibited sound macroeconomic policies and has taken unusually long to resume economic growth. Macedonian social product increased by 1.4 percent in 1997, following 0.7 percent growth in 1996 (the first year it registered a positive figure). Moldova's GDP rose last year for the first time, by 1.3 percent. On the other hand, Macedonia remains in the good graces of international financial institutions--unlike Moldova, whose parliament voted in December to double the budget deficit over that agreed with the IMF. Federal Yugoslavia's anti-reform orientation can be compared only to that of Belarus (and perhaps Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), while its isolation from international institutions is unsurpassed. It shares with Belarus respectable economic growth from a low base: Federal Yugoslavia's GDP rose by about 6 percent and Belarus's by 10 percent in 1997. Like Russia, Federal Yugoslavia has regions where federal institutions are irrelevant for day-to-day life (Chechnya and Kosovo) and often displays hostility toward secessionist republics that colors its economic policies. It quarrels over border demarcation and succession questions, while Russia hassles its neighbors over their treatment of ethnic Russians, pipeline routes, shares of oil deals, and customs issues. Bosnia bears some similarities to similarly civil-war- ravaged Tajikistan. Both states, along with Albania, have received funding from the IMF's Emergency Post Conflict Assistance. Bosnia's economic recovery has been under way longer than Tajikistan's and appears stronger; the former's GDP grew by 50 percent in 1996 and about 30 percent last year, while the latter's first positive figure was in 1997 (1.7 percent). Bosnia's dependence on the world community is unrivaled in recent world history; the IMF has even gone so far as to appoint foreigners to head its central bank. The author is an economist living in Austria. 27-03-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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