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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 144, 97-10-22Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 144, 22 October 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENTARY DEPUTIES WANT KARABAKH HEARINGSThe parliamentary faction Social State has demanded that the legislature hold hearings on the current state of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 21 October. Gegham Gharibjanyan, the group's leader and chairman of the parliamentary committee on social affairs, said deputies must not be excluded from the decision-making process on resolving the conflict. He urged the parliament to take a clear stance on the latest peace plan proposed by the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group, which sponsors the negotiations.[02] TEN DEPUTIES QUIT RULING ARMENIAN PARLIAMENTARY BLOCTen deputies have left the majority Hanrapetutyun parliament bloc to join with four other deputies in a new faction called Yerkrapahner, according to RFE/RL and Noyan Tapan on 21 October. The new group will represent the pro- government yerkrapah volunteer militia that is loyal to Defense minister Vazgen Sargsian. The group's leader, Albert Bazeyan, told the parliament his faction will seek to support Armenia's armed forces. In an interview with "Iravunk" on 10 October, Bazeyan said the faction will insist that a just solution to the Karabakh conflict be based on the Karabakh Armenians' right of self-determination." He rejected the proposed withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied Azerbaijani territories between Karabakh and Armenia. The defection of the 10 deputies leaves Hanrapetutyun with 96 mandates in the 189-seat parliament.[03] CHARGES AGAINST GEORGIAN PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER SUBSTANTIATEDDjemal Gogitidze, the chairman of the Aghordzineba faction within the parliament, has corroborated former Batumi Mayor Tamaz Kharazi's allegations against parliamentary speaker Zurab Zhvania, according to Caucasus Press on 22 October. Kharazi told Adjar Television three days earlier that Zhvania had tried to enlist his support in ousting Aslan Abashidze, the chairman of the Adjar Supreme Soviet (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October 1997). The Aghordzineba faction originally numbered 31 deputies from Abashidze's All-Georgian Union of Revival and was the third largest within the Georgian parliament until nine deputies left the faction earlier this year.[04] KAZAKH PROTEST MARCHERS BEGIN HUNGER STRIKEPolice are still preventing 2,000 workers from the Achisay Polymetal Plant from continuing with their 900 kilometer protest march to Almaty, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported on 22 October. The workers, who began their protest in early October, are demanding the payment of wage arrears. They were halted by police at a bridge over the Aryz irrigation canal, near the southern city of Turkestan (see "RFE/RL Newsline", 16 October 1997). Some 150 workers have gone on a hunger strike.[05] KAZAKH TOP BRASS IMPLICATED IN EMBEZZLEMENT SCANDALThe military prosecutor-general is considering whether to open criminal proceedings against two senior military officials, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported on 22 October. Major-General Alihan Jarbolov, the chief of the Kazakh Defense Forces General Staff, and Lieutenant-General Fedor Shcherbakov, the commander of the Kazakh armyÔs ground forces, are accused of embezzling funds from the state treasury. Jarbolov is reported to have used $60,000 from state funds to purchase a house in Almaty, while Shcherbakov allegedly bought an apartment in Almaty for his daughter.[06] FIRST KAZAKH OIL EXPORTED TO CHINAA shipment of 1,700 metric tons of Kazakh crude has been exported by rail to China's Xinjiang Autonomous Province, where it will be refined, AFP and ITAR-TASS reported on 21 October. A state-owned Chinese oil and gas company signed an agreement with the Kazakh government in September on exploiting oil fields in Aktyubinsk Oblast that have estimated reserves of 130 million metric tons. Kazakhstan and China also signed an agreement on construction of a 3,000 kilometer export pipeline from Kazakhstan to Xinjiang.[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] POLITICAL TENSIONS MOUNT IN MONTENEGROThe State Election Commission in Podgorica on 21 October announced that Milo Djukanovic won the presidential election by 5,600 votes. An OSCE spokesman said the tally accurately "reflects the will of the electorate." But supporters of outgoing President Momir Bulatovic charged fraud and claimed that 20,000 votes were stolen from their candidate. Some 2,000 Bulatovic backers staged a protest, and Djukanovic charged that Bulatovic is trying to incite violence. Bulatovic's supporters called for daily demonstrations until the election results are overturned, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Montenegrin capital. A Bulatovic spokesman that his side expects "expert help from Yugoslav federal institutions to help verify the election results."[08] SERBIA TO VOTE ON 7 DECEMBERParliamentary President Dragan Tomic announced in Belgrade on 21 October that presidential elections will take place on 7 December. A previous vote took place on 21 September, but the authorities declared it invalid because less than 50 percent of the electorate turned out following the opposition's call for a boycott. The September elections pitted Socialist candidate Zoran Lilic, who is a protege of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, against the Radical Party's Vojislav Seselj, who led paramilitary forces in the Croatian and Bosnian conflicts. The opposition says it will take part in the December vote only if the authorities guarantee fair elections and equal access to the media. Spokesmen for the large Albanian minority say Albanians will boycott the vote unless one of the Serbian parties takes a stand on Kosovo that the Albanians can support.[09] TRAINS TO RUN BETWEEN SERBIA, CROATIARepresentatives of Croatian and Yugoslav Railways agreed in Zagreb on 21 October that train services between the two countries will resume on 11 November. One line will link Vinkovci in Croatia with Serbia's Bogojevo to the northeast, and another will connect Vinkovci to Sid in the southeast. Major international trains linking Belgrade to Munich and Zurich via Zagreb will begin running in 1998, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Croatian capital. A Croatian spokesman said talks will begin soon on resuming air and river traffic between the Serbia and Croatia. Meanwhile in Belgrade, more than 5,000 people walked in silence through Belgrade for the funeral of Dusan Jovanovic, a Romani teenager killed by skinheads (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October 1997).[10] WESTENDORP BLASTS CORRUPTION IN BOSNIACarlos Westendorp, the international community's chief representative in Bosnia, released a report on 21 October saying rampant corruption is undermining the peace process. Graft is especially widespread in the collection of taxes and customs revenues as well in the distribution of international aid. Money is siphoned off to support criminal structures that often overlap with official ones among Croats, Serbs, and Muslims alike. Meanwhile in Mostar, international election officials announced that a recount of the votes in the recent local elections gives the multi-ethnic Coalition for a United and Democratic Bosnia and Herzegovina 15 out of 24 seats, or one more than the coalition got in the first count. The Croatian Democratic Community, which demanded the recount, took only nine seats. In New York, Bosnian co-Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic urged NATO to use force to implement the Dayton agreements.[11] CROATIAN OPPOSITION PARTIES WANT OWN TV CHANNELRepresentatives of the Croatian Social and Liberal Party, the Croatian Peasants' Party, the Croatian People's Party, and the Istrian Democratic Assembly introduced a bill in the parliament on 21 October giving the opposition control over the second channel of Croatian Radio and Television (HRT). Liberal leader Vlado Gotovac said the opposition wants to establish an "objective" news and information channel. HRT is controlled by the governing Croatian Democratic Community, and the opposition regards HRT's political coverage as heavily biased. Television is the primary source of news for most Croats. And in Moscow, a military spokesman said Russia has begun withdrawing 500 of its 700 paratroopers based in eastern Slavonia. The evacuation of the 500 men and their equipment, including 75 armored personnel carriers, will end on 15 November.[12] ALBANIA'S BERISHA CALLS FOR NEW ELECTIONSDelegates to a two-day congress of the opposition Democratic Party have re- elected Sali Berisha as party leader and adopted new party statutes, "Rilindja Demokratike" reported on 22 October. Berisha urged that new elections be held soon, saying that the Democrats would win them, Berisha was re-elected party leader over Peter Arbnori, a senior party member who was imprisoned during communism. His victory by 791 to 115 votes suggests opposition to him within the party is limited, even though some party leaders called for Berisha to be replaced following the Democrats' massive losses in the June elections. "Republika" of the conservative Republican Party pointed out that by keeping Berisha as leader, the Democrats have missed an opportunity to elect a leader who could form a coalition with other right-of-center parties and challenge the Socialists.[13] FIRST CORPSES REMOVED FROM ALBANIAN REFUGEE SHIPAuthorities in Brindisi have removed 11 bodies from an Albanian ship sunk by an Italian vessel on 28 March but recently raised by Italian engineers (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 October 1997). The Italian authorities believe that at least 70 more corpses are still below deck. Sabri Godo, the head of the Albanian parliamentary commission on foreign relations, asked for Albanian participation in the Italian investigation into the cause of the accident. Italy maintains that the sinking was accidental, but many Albanian survivors charge the Italian vessel deliberately rammed the Albanian one.[14] HUNGARIAN UNIVERSITY TO BE OPENED IN ROMANIAVisiting Prime Minister Gyula Horn and his Romanian counterpart, Victor Ciorbea, have agreed to finance a Hungarian-language university in Transylvania. The plan to set up separate Hungarian- and Romanian-language sections at Cluj University will be dropped, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported on 21 October. Addressing journalists, Horn said ethnic Hungarians told him the previous day that their situation has "greatly improved" in the last months. He added that they are "better qualified" to judge that situation than any one in Budapest. The two premiers agreed that experts will start working on plans for a Budapest-Bucharest highway. New border- crossing points and Hungarian-Romanian bank are also to be set up.[15] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER SLAMS GOVERNMENTAt a press conference on 21 October, former President Ion Iliescu read aloud a "Letter to the Nation" calling upon the government to honor its electoral promises or "leave the political scene, making room for others, who are more diligent and more loyal to the interests of the country and its population," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Iliescu said a protest meeting organized by several opposition parties on 22 October is "just the beginning" of joint action aimed at forcing early elections. Premier Ciorbea said the rally is an "attempt by the opposition to overturn the government by force" and that the government "is ready to meet any challenge." Police announced on 22 October that the meeting will be moved to a square different from that originally authorized, where the "revolutionaries" are on hunger strike.[16] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT ASSUMES CONTROL OVER FOREIGN INTELLIGENCEThe Chamber of Deputies on 21 October passed a bill placing the Foreign Intelligence Agency (SIE) under the supervision of a special parliamentary commission, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The bill, which has already been approved by the Senate, still has to be promulgated by President Emil Constantinescu. It stipulates that the director of SIE be appointed by the country's president and that the Supreme Defense Council supervise the organization's day-to-day activities.[17] LUCINSCHI ON RELATIONS WITH RUSSIAMoldovan President Petru Lucinschi says relations between Chisinau and Moscow are "strongly hindered" by the still unresolved conflict with the Transdniester separatists In an interview with Interfax on 21 October, Lucinschi pointed out that although Russia recognizes Moldova's territorial integrity, the Russian State Duma has not ratified "even a single agreement" between the two countries. This, he said, shows Duma's deputies "disdain for the bulk of Moldova's population." He also noted that the separatists control more than "12 percent of Moldova's population and much of the territory with a strong industrial potential." This affects trade relations with Moscow because exports to Russia have to overcome "barriers" set up by the separatists, he said. Lucinschi stressed he does not expect a "final solution" to emerge from the upcoming CIS summit in Chisinau.[18] BULGARIAN PREMIER APPEALS TO FOREIGN INVESTORSIvan Kostov told a conference of foreign investors in Sofia on 21 October that there will be "no going back" in the country's economic reforms program. Kostov stressed that the currency board set up in July has ensured the country has sufficient foreign-currency reserves to make all foreign- debt payments. He pointed out that the parliament on 17 October adopted a law halving the profits tax for investments of more than $ 5 million and for investments creating at least 100 jobs, AFP reported. In other news, trading began on the Bulgarian stock exchange for the first time since its closure in 1947, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported on 21 October. During the next two weeks, trading will be limited to shares acquired by privatization funds through voucher privatization.[C] END NOTE[19] ENCOURAGING GROWTH, WORRYING IMBALANCES IN CROATIAN ECONOMYby Michael WyzanCroatia is in an unusual position among transition economies. It has a developed and stable economy, successful tourism, and considerable trade dependence on the EU. Yet it is the only country boasting such an economy with which the EU has not signed a Europe Agreement, much less invited to accession talks. That situation results from foreign-policy considerations, especially the view of the Western powers that the government has not done enough to promote the Dayton peace process. Until recently, the IMF had been refusing under U.S. pressure to release two $40 million loan tranches, and the World Bank did the same with a $30 million loan. The U.S. pointed to Zagreb's failure to hand over 10 alleged war criminals to the war crimes tribunal in the Hague and to meet other requirements of the Dayton agreement. The war criminals left for The Netherlands on 6 October, and the IMF approved releasing the tranches four days later. In some respects, Croatia's economy is a star performer. Growth of gross domestic product (GDP) was a healthy 4.2 percent in 1996 (previous years had seen either decline or slow growth). This year, GDP rose by 3.3 percent in the first quarter and 4 percent in the second. However, there are some concerns about capital flight after the delays in releasing the IMF and World Bank funds; as a result, growth may slow later in the year. The economy is diversified. This year's growth has been buoyed both by industry (industrial production was up 5.2 percent from January to July over the same period last year) and by positive trends in tourism. Tourist arrivals in July and August were up by 34 percent over those months in 1996, with foreigners accounting for 80 percent of tourist nights. A striking feature of Croatia's economy under transition has been low inflation. Following the introduction of a stabilization program in October 1993, retail prices fell by 3 percent in 1994. While inflation has returned since then, annual rates are very low: 3.7 percent in 1995, 3.4 percent in 1996, and 3.5 percent in the 12 months to August 1997. This is the lowest average inflation among transition economies over the last three-and-a-half years. High dollar wages and substantial unemployment have characterized Croatia's labor market. The official unemployment rate has been above 15 percent since late 1995, while monthly wages have been just shy of $400 since mid- 1996. Both the high dollar wages and the low inflation reflect a peculiarity of former Yugoslav republics: namely, currencies whose values are closer to those in the EU than is the case of conventional formerly planned economies. Croatia has a price level similar to Austria's but wages like those in the Czech Republic. One of the ramifications of that situation is popular disgruntlement with the standard of living. There are also persistent worries about the competitiveness of the country's manufactured exports and about the trade and current account balances, especially when imports are growing rapidly, as is the case at present. From January to July, the trade deficit was $2.4 billion, compared with $1.7 billion during the same period last year. Zagrebacka banka, the country's leading commercial bank, forecasts a $4.4 billion trade deficit (compared with $3.3 billion in 1996) and a $2 billion current account deficit ($1.5 billion last year) for 1997 as a whole. Another growing imbalance is the government budget deficit, which the bank forecasts will be 2.5 percent of GDP this year (0.1 percent in 1996). The growing foreign imbalances suggest the economy may be overheating, as imports are increasing faster than exports. Unlike in other transition countries, however, that is not because the currency, the kuna, is failing to depreciate fast enough to take into account higher inflation than in the country's trading partners. In fact, the kuna has been depreciating this year in such terms. Both the successes and problems of Croatian stabilization are similar to those of the Visegrad and Baltic economies. A vote of confidence in Croatia's stabilization efforts came with investment-grade ratings from three ratings agencies in January. Those ratings helped make the government's launching of a Eurobond issue successful. On structural issues, Croatia is less of a star performer. Privatization has been proceeding, but in a way that favors enterprise managers and the administration's political cronies and actually increases the share of state ownership. That increase occurred because the government decided to clarify many enterprises' ownership status by making them explicitly state property, rather than leaving them in the vague category of "social ownership" inherited from the communist period. Meanwhile, the parliament has been resisting privatizing the post and telecommunications monopoly. However, observers praise Croatia's bank restructuring and privatization efforts. And the economy has model companies, such as pharmaceutical firm Pliva, which in 1996 became the first company in the region to place shares on the London Stock Exchange. The author is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. 22-10-97 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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