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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 140, 97-10-16Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 140, 16 October 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ATTACK ON TAJIK PRESIDENTIAL GUARD LEAVES FOURTEEN DEADSome 80 gunmen attacked the Dushanbe headquarters of the presidential guard during the early morning of 16 October, killing up to 14 servicemen, including five officers. Four of the gunmen were also killed. Presidential guard commander Gafur Mirzoyev said the identity and affiliation of the attackers are unknown. President Imomali Rakhmonov will personally monitor the Interior Ministry investigation into the attack. At a meeting on 14 October in Dushanbe, the opposition field commanders who control Lenin and Kofarnikhon Raions, east of Dushanbe, had agreed to comply with United Tajik Opposition leader Said Abdullo Nuri's orders for tougher discipline and a halt to looting and unauthorized attacks. They had also agreed to cooperate with government forces in the fight against crime and unauthorized military formations, according to "Nezavisimaya gazeta" and Interfax on 16 October.[02] IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN DUSHANBEKamal Kharrazi met in Dushanbe on 15 October with President Rakhmonov to discuss bilateral relations, the implementation of the peace accord, and the situation in Afghanistan. Kharrazi also met with Prime Minister Yakhya Azimov with whom he discussed the possibility of increased Iranian investment in prospecting for oil and gas in Tajikistan and of creating a quadrilateral commission for trade and economic cooperation in Central Asia, according to ITAR-TASS. At a meeting with Nuri, the UTO leader expressed his gratitude to the Iranian leadership for its role as a guarantor of the peace process. In Tehran, however, Minister of Culture Ataollah Mohajerani issued a statement on 15 October protesting the removal of signs in Farsi from shop fronts and other public places in Dushanbe as well as the closure of a Farsi-language bookstore in the Tajik capital.[03] SUPPORT GROWS FOR KAZAKH PROTEST MARCHERSA member of the lower chamber of the parliament has called on the government to do everything in its power to expedite the payment of wage arrears to the 2,000 workers from the Achisay Polymetal Plant, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported on 16 October. The workers and their families began a protest march to Almaty earlier this month but were intercepted by police near the city of Turkestan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 and 15 October 1997). Meanwhile the marchers released a statement to Kazakh and foreign journalists appealing to all political parties and movements for their backing. Miners in the eastern city of Leninogorsk have organized a support group, which has begun to collect food and money to be sent to the marchers.[04] UKRAINE, KYRGYZSTAN PLEDGE TO INCREASE TRADEMeeting in Bishkek on 15 October, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev said their countries will increase the volume of bilateral trade at least tenfold in 1998, ITAR-TASS reported. Total turnover between the two countries so far this year is less than $6 million.[05] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT PROPOSES AMNESTY FOR DESERTERSHeidar Aliev has submitted to the parliament a draft law calling for an amnesty for those serving prison sentences for desertion and other military crimes, Turan and Interfax reported on 15 October. The amnesty covers not only servicemen who participated in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but also invalids and people whose close relatives or underage children died in the war. In a swipe at the Azerbaijan Popular Front government, Aliev said it is unjust that people should serve prison terms for military crimes committed during a period of "havoc and anarchy" in the armed forces. This anarchy, Aliev continued, resulted from the "absence of a regular army, discipline, and military command."[06] ARMENIAN, FRENCH PRESIDENTS MEETCommenting on his talks in Paris with his French counterpart, Jacques Chirac, Levon Ter-Petrossyan expressed satisfaction that France gives a high priority to relations with Armenia, Noyan Tapan reported. Chirac termed bilateral relations "favorable." Both presidents were cautiously optimistic about the prospects for resolving the Karabakh conflict, but Ter- Petrossyan later made it clear that Armenia will attend the Moscow summit on Karabakh proposed by Chirac and Russian President Boris Yeltsin only if representatives from Nagorno-Karabakh are also invited. No date has yet been set for that meeting. Ter-Petrossyan rejected suggestions that discord exists between Armenia and Karabakh over the peace process. Ter-Petrossyan also appealed to Chirac to release former ASALA activist Varouzhan Karapetian, currently serving life imprisonment in France for his role in the 1983 Orly airport bombing, in which seven people were killed.[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] U.S. PLEDGES AID TO PLAVSICAmbassador to Bosnia Richard Kauzlarich and Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic signed an agreement in Banja Luka on 15 October that makes $1 million available for restoring roads, railroads, and houses on Bosnian Serb territory. Kauzlarich said work will begin immediately on rebuilding a major bridge in Banja Luka, which, he added, is evidence of Washington's willingness to help Bosnian Serbs who respect the Dayton agreements. Meanwhile, Plavsic told Banja Luka Television that her recent electoral agreement with her rival Momcilo Krajisnik covered only parliamentary elections and that a presidential vote was "not mentioned" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 October 1997). Krajisnik told Pale media on 13 October that elections will take place later this year for the Republika Srpska presidency and for the Serbian seat on the Bosnian joint presidency.[08] UN POLICE SAY KARADZIC HAS ILLEGAL BODYGUARDA UN police spokesman said in Sarajevo on 15 October that a special police formation guards the home of indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic in Pale. The spokesman added that the heavily armed police formation is illegal under the Dayton agreements. Meanwhile in Prague, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights John Shattuck told RFE/RL that indicted war criminals "should not have a good night's sleep until they are in The Hague," where the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia is based. Shattuck added that it is "very likely" that Karadzic will be arrested soon and sent to the Dutch city for trial. And in Washington, CBS Television charged that a prominent indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal is living openly in Foca, where he committed his alleged crimes, and that NATO troops present there are unwilling to arrest him.[09] HAGUE COURT SUBPOENAS BOSNIAN WITNESSESThe Hague-based tribunal announced on 15 October that it has issued a subpoena demanding that six witnesses living on Bosnian government- controlled territory appear next week to testify in the case of three Muslims and a Croat. The four are charged with having committed atrocities against Serbs in 1992 at the Celebici prison camp. Only one of the witnesses, General Jovan Divjak, has agreed to testify, RFE/RL reported on 16 October. Divjak is a Serb who held a Bosnian army command throughout the war. After the Dayton agreements were signed, he and many other Serbian or Croatian officers were purged by the Muslim authorities and replaced with Muslims.[10] UN ALLOWS SERBIAN FLAG IN VUKOVARRepresentatives of the UN, which is administering eastern Slavonia in its transition from Serbian to Croatian control, ruled in Vukovar on 15 October that the Serbian flag can be displayed at official functions if the Serbian minority wants it. Croatian members of the Vukovar City Council had objected to having the Serbian flag displayed at council meetings. The UN said, however, that Croatian law guarantees any minority the right to use its national flag alongside the Croatian one. Meanwhile in Belgrade, a UN spokeswoman said no one knows yet when exactly Croatia will take full control of eastern Slavonia. She added that Secretary General Kofi Annan is not satisfied with the overall state of affairs there, and that the Serbian population remains disquieted about the possible return of Croatian control.[11] MONTENEGRIN POLICE ARREST ALLEGED SERBIAN AGENTSPolice authorities in Podgorica announced on 16 October that they arrested 11 men from Belgrade and Novi Sad allegedly sent by the Serbian authorities to carry out unspecified tasks in conjunction with the 19 October Montenegrin presidential election. The vote pits Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who favors more autonomy for Montenegro, against President Momir Bulatovic, a supporter of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. The police said the arrested men had a telephone number of a member of Bulatovic's security team who was to tell them exactly what to do. Most are unemployed and were promised a large amount of money should Bulatovic win. The police added that all of those arrested have a criminal record and that some of them were paramilitaries in Croatia or Bosnia.[12] MONTENEGRO UPDATES VOTING LISTSMontenegrin Supreme Court President Ratko Vukotic said in Podgorica on 16 October that 9,000 people have asked that their names be added to voter registration lists in time for the upcoming election. Western monitors present during the first round of presidential voting in September charged that many eligible voters, primarily Djukanovic supporters, had been left off the lists. In Belgrade, "Danas" reported on 15 October that communist politicians close to Mirjana Markovic, who is also Milosevic's wife, have given $2 million to Bulatovic's campaign.[13] KOSOVARS CHARGE BELGRADE WITH CRACKDOWNSpokesmen for the Democratic League of Kosovo, the leading ethnic Albanian political organization in Serbia's southern province, said in Pristina on 15 October that Serbian police have staged a crackdown in three ethnic Albanian villages near Djakovica. The spokesmen added that police mistreated some 100 Albanians in the raids, which were made in response to an armed attack on a Serbian police station two days earlier (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 October 1997). On 16 October, Radio Pristina reported that one person was killed in an attack on a police station in Klicina. Meanwhile in Pristina, ethnic Albanian student spokesman Bujar Dugoli said the students will continue their street protests unless the Serbian authorities implement a 1996 agreement with the Albanians on restoring Albanian-language education in Kosovo. On 1 October, the police broke up the first major demonstration in years in Pristina.[14] ALBANIA SETS TERMS FOR BETTER RELATIONS WITH BELGRADEAlbanian Foreign Minister Paskal Milo said in Tirana on 15 October that Yugoslavia must fulfill some basic conditions before Tirana can consider holding what he called top-level bilateral talks, BETA news agency reported. Milo said Belgrade must first implement the 1996 education agreement and end what he called police repression of the Kosovars. Belgrade, he continued, must also conclude agreements with Tirana on border and consular affairs, as well as on economic relations and trade.[15] GREECE PLEDGES MORE AID TO ALBANIAGreek Prime Minister Kostas Simitis said in Tirana on 15 October that the "development of Albania benefits Greece. Better cooperation with Greece benefits Albania." He told his Albanian counterpart, Fatos Nano, that Greece will provide a $72 million loan to Albania and that Greece will continue its efforts to help rebuild Albania's police force. The prime ministers signed agreements on fighting crime and illegal immigration, promoting military cooperation, and cooperating on infrastructure projects. They also agreed to open a Greek consulate in Korca and to set up three new crossing points along their border. Simitis said Greece will take steps to give legal status to many Albanian migrants illegally staying in that country. Nano pledged to make Greek-language schooling more readily available to Albania's Greek minority.[16] ROMANIAN PREMIER ACCUSES 'REVOLUTIONARIES' OF BLACKMAILVictor Ciorbea on 15 October said the "revolutionaries" staging a hunger strike in Bucharest are "blackmailing" the government. Earlier, the premier had said the joint commission tasked with examining whether "revolutionaries" qualify for special privileges will include experts from the Ministry of Interior and the Prosecutor-General's Office, members of the parliament's two chambers, and representatives of the "revolutionaries," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. A protocol on setting up the commission was signed with "revolutionaries" representatives. But Dan Iosif, one of the leaders of the hunger strikers, said the "revolutionaries" are demanding that the government withdraw the draft amendment to the law, instead of simply postponing the debate on the legislation. He added that the hunger strike will continue.[17] POLITICAL UPROAR OVER 'REVOLUTIONARIES' STRIKEAlso on 15 October, former President Ion Iliescu again visited the striking "revolutionaries" and encouraged them to persist in their demands, prompting Ciorbea to comment that he hopes the strikers are not being manipulated. Culture Minister Ion Caramitru on 15 October threatened to resign over the government's decision to postpone the debate on the amendment. The next day, Iosif accused Iliescu, Ciorbea, and other leaders of seeking to make political capital out of the strikers. He added that the protesters intend to "ask for political asylum in the U.S." The Party of Social Democracy in Romania faction walked out of the Senate debates after National Peasant Party Christian Democratic Senator Serban Sandulescu accused Iliescu and Iosif of "destabilizing the country." And Sandulescu resigned from the commission overseeing the law's implementation to protest President Emil Constantinescu's position on the strikers, Radio Bucharest and Mediafax reported.[18] CHISINAU, TIRASPOL AGREE ON CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURESMoldovan Defense Minister Valeriu Pasat and his Transdniestrian counterpart, Stanislav Hajeev, have agreed on a number of "confidence-building" measures, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported on 15 October. The agreement provides for exchange visits to military units situated in the security zone and on military maneuvers. Nikolai Lepihov, Hajeev's deputy, said Pasat handed Transdniestrian leader Igor Smirnov a message from President Petru Lucinschi. Sources close to Smirnov said the message deals with the preparations for the CIS summit scheduled to take place in Chisinau on 22- 23 October. Lucinschi asked Smirnov to "intensify control" over the so- called "voluntary organizations" of Transdniestrian paramilitary "in order to avoid any provocations" during the summit.[19] MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS APPEAL TO CONSTITUTIONAL COURTVladimir Voronin, the leader of the Party of Moldovan Communists, told journalists in Chisinau on 15 October that his party will appeal to the Constitutional Court against the parliament's rejection of the proposed plebiscite on the law on land sale and purchase (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 October 1997). Voronin said the parliament's decision to disregard the 245, 000 signatures supporting the referendum "once again demonstrates the anti- people, destructive nature" of the legislature, BASA-press and Infotag reported.[20] GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN SOFIAKlaus Kinkel, on a one-day visit to Sofia on 15 October, told a news conference that the "decision on Bulgaria's admission to the EU and NATO has already been taken and the only question is when and how." After talks with President Petar Stoyanov, Prime Minister Ivan Kostov, and Foreign Minister Nadezhda Mihailova, Kinkel pledged that Germany will remain a "reliable partner" in Bulgarian efforts to join the Euro-Atlantic organizations, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported.[C] END NOTE[21] IS YELTSIN'S PROPOSED KARABAKH SUMMIT A NON-STARTER?Emil Danielyan and Liz FullerRecent developments may either give new impetus to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process or deadlock it once again. Over a 10-course gourmet dinner in Strasbourg on the eve of the 10-11 October Council of Europe summit, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his French counterpart, Jacques Chirac, decided to invite the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Levon Ter-Petrossyan and Heidar Aliev, to Moscow for talks under the auspices of the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group, which since 1992 has been engaged in mediating a settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Russia and France, together with the U.S,. are the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group, and Yeltsin said that U.S. participation would be welcome. He did not, however, indicate whether Arkadii Ghukasyan, the president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, would also be invited. Ter- Petrossyan and Aliev on 10 October issued a joint statement calling for talks within the framework of the Minsk Group that would include all three parties to the conflict. Their statement also described as "encouraging" the most recent draft peace plan proposed by the Minsk Group. That plan envisages a "step-by-step" approach to resolving the conflict whereby a decision on Nagorno-Karabakh's status is to be preceded by the withdrawal of Armenian forces from six occupied raions in Azerbaijan, the lifting of Azerbaijan's blockade of Armenia, the repatriation of displaced persons and refugees, and other confidence- building measures. Azerbaijan gave its written consent to those proposals on 8 October. The following day, Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesman Arsen Gasparyan said that Yerevan has officially accepted the plan "as a basis for further negotiations" but has unspecified serious reservations about it. The Karabakh Armenian leadership, for its part, has consistently advocated a "package" solution to the conflict that would resolve all contentious issues within a single framework document. The Karabakh Armenians argue that a phased solution is dangerous because it obliges them to withdraw from the Azerbaijani territory under their control--their main bargaining chip--but gives no guarantee that Baku will not attack Nagorno-Karabakh after the first stage of the peace process. Having regained its lost territories, they reason, oil-rich Azerbaijan may be tempted to solve the dispute by force. Naira Melkumyan, Nagorno-Karabakh's permanent representative in Yerevan, announced on 11 October that Stepanakert has formally rejected the "step-by- step" peace plan. She said a withdrawal from occupied Azerbaijani territory is possible only if there are international guarantees of Nagorno- Karabakh's "security and future status." She also proposed that Armenia and a number of foreign countries, including Iran, act as guarantors of Karabakh's security. Ghukasyan has similarly proposed a role for Iran in the peace process. The U.S., however, will reject such a proposal out of hand, and Azerbaijan and Turkey (which is a Minsk Group member) are likely to express reservations. Moreover, Iran is not a member of the OSCE, which Armenia and Azerbaijan have just termed the most appropriate forum for talks on resolving the conflict. Diverging views within the Armenian leadership could pose a further obstacle to the peace process. Speaking at a press conference on 26 September, Ter-Petrossyan affirmed that "unilateral demands" for Nagorno- Karabakh's secession from Azerbaijan are unrealistic and will not be tolerated by the international community. Ter-Petrossyan said Armenia must be ready to make "serious concessions" if it is to become a "normal country" and if it is not to lose more in the long run. He drew a parallel with the Croatian Serbs, who lost their self-proclaimed republic in 1995. Predictably, Ter-Petrossyan's statements were condemned by the Armenian opposition as "capitulation and surrender." But some influential members of the Armenian leadership--including Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan, Interior and National Security Minister Serzh Sarkisyan (both former war- time leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh) and hard-line Defense Minister Vazgen Sarkisyan--are likewise believed to harbor objections. Some Armenian observers have speculated that Ter-Petrossyan's 26 September statements were a diplomatic ruse aimed at preempting international pressure over the Armenians' refusal to recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. By blaming the Karabakh Armenians for that refusal, those observers argue, Ter-Petrossyan wanted to create the image of a "realist" leader having to deal with "intransigent nationalists." But Ghukasyan's repeated offer to cede part of Karabakh's de facto independence and conclude an accord creating a confederation with Baku that would preserve Azerbaijan's territorial integrity in effect renders such an argument irrelevant, if not invalid. At the same time, Baku will appear obdurate if it refuses--as it almost certainly will-- to discuss the "confederation" option for Nagorno-Karabakh. Paradoxically, while Ter-Petrossyan's and Ghukasyan's expressed willingness to compromise over Karabakh's future status could expedite a breakthrough in the peace process, disagreement over long-term security guarantees for the Karabakh population could just as easily deadlock it--unless, that is, the OSCE agrees to provide those security guarantees for Karabakh in order to exclude Iran. In fact, this may be precisely what Ter-Petrossyan, a consummate strategic thinker, has in mind. Emil Danielyan is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Yerevan. 16-10-97 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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