Voice of America, 98-07-01

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] GREEK VIEW OF THE KOSOVO CRISIS BY JUDITH LATHAM (WASHINGTON)

[02] NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY (L-ONLY) BY ANDRE DE NESNERA (LONDON)

[03] NORTHERN IRELAND MOVES AHEAD TOWARD PEACE BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[04] EURO STOCKS (S ONLY) BY JACK HUIZENGA (LONDON)

[05] N-Y ECON WRAP (S & L) BY BRECK ARDERY (NEW YORK)

[06] WEDNESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[07] IRAQ / KURDS (L-ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

[08] U-S/KOSOVO (L ONLY) BY GIL BUTLER (STATE DEPARTMENT)

[01] GREEK VIEW OF THE KOSOVO CRISIS BY JUDITH LATHAM (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: BALKAN ANALYSTS OFTEN WARN THAT THE VIOLENCE IN KOSOVO MAY SPILL OVER INTO NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES AND ULTIMATELY

TEXT: NIKOLAOS STAVROU [STAH-VROO], PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AT HOWARD UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, D-C, IS A SPECIALIST IN BALKAN AFFAIRS AND IS THE EDITOR OF "MEDITERRANEAN QUARTERLY." PROFESSOR STAVROU SAYS THE OFFICIAL GREEK POSITION IS THAT KOSOVO IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF YUGOSLAVIA, BUT IT BELIEVES THAT THE HUMAN RIGHTS OF THE ALBANIAN MINORITY SHOULD BE PROTECTED. PROFESSOR STAVROU SAYS GREECE IS CONCERNED WITH PRESERVATION OF THE EXISTING BORDERS IN THE BALKANS.

TAPE: CUT ONE -- STAVROU (0:45) "UNFORTUNATELY, WESTERN POLICY THUS FAR ASSURES EXPANSION OF THE CONFLICT IN KOSOVO AND INEVITABLY ALTERATION OF THE BORDERS. WHENEVER A RESISTANCE GROUP -- IN THIS CASE THE SO-CALLED KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY -- PERCEIVES THE OUTSIDE WORLD AS BEING ON ITS SIDE, IT WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT UNTIL OUTSIDE FORCES COME TO ITS ASSISTANCE. I WAS REALLY SHOCKED TO SEE MR. HOLBROOKE MEETING WITH THE LEADER OF THE LIBERATION ARMY. THIS BY ANY MEASURE IS A TERRORIST ORGANIZATION, AND I CANNOT SEE HOW SUCH A MEETING WILL FACILITATE A NEGOTIATION BETWEEN MODERATE ALBANIANS AND THE BELGRADE AUTHORITIES."

TEXT: PROFESSOR STAVROU SAYS THAT GREECE SUPPORTS CULTURAL AUTONOMY FOR THE KOSOVAR ALBANIANS, BUT NOT POLITICAL AUTONOMY. THAT MEANS, HE ADDS, A RETURN TO THE LIMITED AUTONOMY EXISTING BETWEEN 1963 AND '74, NOT WHAT HE CALLS THE "STATUS OF A FULL REPUBLIC" THAT HAPPENED BETWEEN 1974 AND '89. IF THE KOSOVAR ALBANIANS SUCCEED IN FORMING A REPUBLIC, THE RESULTS COULD BE UNFORTUNATE, SAYS NIKOLAOS STAVROU.

TAPE: CUT TWO -- STAVROU (1:07) "WHAT THE ALBANIANS WANT IS A REPUBLIC STATUS AND, AS YOU KNOW, REPUBLICS HAVE THE RIGHT TO SECEDE. AND THE NEXT STEP FOR THEM IS SECESSION AND UNION WITH ALBANIA. (OPT) IN SHORT, THE DREAM OF GREATER ALBANIA HAS BEEN KEPT ALIVE SINCE 1912. THEY ARE VERY CLOSE TO ACHIEVING THAT NOW. BUT, IF THEY DO, HERE IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE BALKANS. WE'LL HAVE A TRUNCATED SERBIA, WE'LL HAVE A GREATER ALBANIA, WE'LL HAVE PROBABLY A GREATER BULGARIA, AND FOR SURE, NO MACEDONIA. THE ALBANIANS OF MACEDONIA WILL PIGGY-BACK ON THE KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY EFFORT TO UNITE WITH ALBANIA. (END OPT) WITH THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDING AND, IN MY OPINION, IT IS QUITE A REALISTIC ONE, GREECE HAS TO REASSESS ITS OWN POSITION VIS-A-VIS THE [GREEK] ETHNIC MINORITY IN SOUTHERN ALBANIA. NOW, IF THE ALBANIANS WANT A SPECIAL STATUS IN KOSOVO, GREECE WILL EXPECT THE SAME STATUS FOR THE ETHNIC MINORITY IN SOUTHERN ALBANIA. SO GREECE WILL BE INVOLVED. WITH GREECE BEING INVOLVED, YOU CAN BET THAT TURKEY WILL CERTAINLY BE INVOLVED IN SUPPORT OF THEIR 'MUSLIM BRETHREN' IN THE BALKANS."

TEXT: AN EXPANDED BALKAN CONFLICT, PROFESSOR STAVROU SAYS, WOULD AGGRAVATE THE ALBANIAN REFUGEE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WHICH IS A MAJOR FEAR FOR GREECE.

TAPE: CUT THREE -- STAVROU (0:35) "GREECE CANNOT AFFORD TO ABSORB ANOTHER HALF A MILLION REFUGEES. THERE ARE ALREADY 1.2 MILLION FOREIGN WORKERS IN GREECE -- CLOSE TO 400,000 OF THEM ALBANIANS. THE CRIME RATE IN GREECE HAS GONE UP 380 PERCENT, AND 90 PERCENT OF THE INCREASE ORIGINATED WITH ALBANIAN REFUGEES -- IMMIGRANT WORKERS, ILLEGALS. GREECE HAS NOT MANY OPTIONS -- KEEP THEM OUT, STOP THEM AT THE BORDER WHICH WOULD BE PRETTY MESSY, [OR] RECEIVE [ACCEPT] THEM. ALL OF THESE OPTIONS ARE NOT GOOD. THAT IS PRECISELY WHY THE POLICY OF GREECE HAS BEEN THE CORRECT ONE -- KEEP THE PRESENT BORDERS."

TEXT: PROFESSOR STAVROU SAYS GREECE VIEWS WITH ALARM RECENT STATEMENTS BY U-S OFFICIALS THAT NATO IS ACCELERATING ITS PLANNING, SHOULD IT BE CALLED UPON TO STOP THE VIOLENCE IN KOSOVO.

TAPE: CUT FOUR -- STAVROU (0:24) "NATO WAS NOT CREATED TO BE A POLICE FORCE OR A MEALS-ON-WHEELS [HUMANITARIAN RELIEF] ORGANIZATION. IT'S A DEFENSE ALLIANCE, AND AS FAR AS I CAN TELL, NO ONE THREATENS ANY OF THE [NATO] MEMBERS' TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY. SO, NATO APPEARING TO BE AVAILABLE EACH AND EVERY TIME SOMEBODY PICKS UP ARMS AND CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND CHALLENGES AN EXISTING SOVEREIGN AUTHORITY, THERE IS NO END TO HOW MANY CONFLICTS IT WILL BE INVOLVED."

TEXT: THE ALBANIAN COMMUNITY IN GREECE NOW NUMBERS NEARLY HALF A MILLION, ACCORDING TO PROFESSOR STAVROU. IF THOSE NUMBERS WERE TO BE SWELLED BY A LARGE INFLUX OF REFUGEES, HE ADDS, THEY MIGHT DEMAND THE SAME RIGHTS WITHIN GREECE AS WITHIN KOSOVO. AND THIS PROSPECT REPRESENTS WHAT HE CALLS A "LONG-TERM SOCIOLOGICAL CONCERN" FOR GREECE. (OPT) PART TWO OF THIS SERIES WILL EXAMINE THE TURKISH PERSPECTIVE ON THE KOSOVO CRISIS. (END OPT)
01-Jul-98 3:22 PM EDT (1922 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY (L-ONLY) BY ANDRE DE NESNERA (LONDON)

INTRO: NORTHERN IRELAND'S NEW ASSEMBLY HAS SPENT ITS FIRST DAY ELECTING ITS SENIOR OFFICIALS. BUT AS V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA REPORTS FROM LONDON, THE PROCEEDINGS WERE OVERSHADOWED BY CONTINUED TENSIONS OVER A CONTENTIOUS PROTESTANT MARCH NEXT SUNDAY.

TEXT: THE CONVENING OF NORTHERN IRELAND'S 108-MEMBER ASSEMBLY REPRESENTS ANOTHER IMPORTANT STEP IN THE BRITISH PROVINCE'S SEARCH FOR A LASTING PEACE.

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN 25 YEARS, POLITICAL REPRESENTATIVES FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE SECTARIAN DIVIDE WILL RUN NORTHERN IRELAND'S AFFAIRS AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUCH ISSUES AS AGRICULTURE, EDUCATION, AND HEALTH.

THE FIRST DAY WAS DEVOTED TO THE ELECTION OF THE ASSEMBLY'S FIRST MINISTER -- IN ESSENCE, NORTHERN IRELAND'S PRIME MINISTER. TO NO-ONE'S SURPRISE, THAT POST WENT TO DAVID TRIMBLE, THE LEADER OF THE PRO-BRITISH "ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY" WHICH HAS THE LARGEST NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE ASSEMBLY.

THE POSITION OF DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER WENT TO SEAMUS MALLON, THE DEPUTY LEADER OF THE PRO-IRISH NATIONALIST "SOCIAL, DEMOCRATIC AND LABOUR PARTY" WHICH RECEIVED THE SECOND LARGEST NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE RECENT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS.

WHETHER YOU ARE A NATIONALIST OR A UNIONIST IN NORTHERN IRELAND, THE SITUATION IS THAT FOR 26 YEARS HERE, THE PEOPLE OF NORTHERN IRELAND HAVE NOT REALLY HAD AN INPUT INTO THE CRUCIAL DECISIONS THAT AFFECT THE PROVINCE. WE HAVE SEEN THE AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY HERE ALMOST DECIMATED BECAUSE KEY DECISIONS WERE TAKEN IN LONDON THAT DID NOT FAVOR NORTHERN IRELAND FARMERS -- AND THEY ARE A BIG LOBBY BOTH ON THE NATIONALIST AND THE UNIONIST SIDE. WE HAVE SEEN OTHER MEASURES TAKEN WHICH WERE NOT TO THE BENEFIT OF BUSINESS AND COMMERCE AND NORMAL LIFE IN NORTHERN IRELAND. SO THE ASSEMBLY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE THE INITIATIVE ON THESE ISSUES AND TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR IMPORTANT THINGS THAT JUST DO AFFECT PEOPLE IN THEIR EVERY DAY LIVES.

THE FIRST OFFICIAL DAY OF THE NEW NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY WAS OVERSHADOWED BY TENSIONS SURROUNDING A SUNDAY MARCH BY THE PROTESTANT 'ORANGE ORDER' IN THE SMALL TOWN OF PORTADOWN, SOUTHWEST OF BELFAST. THE OFFICIAL PARADES COMMISSION BANNED THE MARCH FROM A CATHOLIC AREA -- BUT THE ORGANIZERS SAY THEY WILL GO AHEAD REGARDLESS.

NOEL DORAN -- DEPUTY EDITOR OF THE PRO-NATIONALIST BELFAST "IRISH NEWS" -- BELIEVES THE PORTADOWN MARCH MUST BE STOPPED.

IT IS CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE A CONSIDERABLE CAMPAIGN OF AGITATION IN THE DAYS AHEAD -- AND IT IS JUST A QUESTION WHETHER THE AUTHORITIES WILL STICK TO THEIR DECISIONS OR AS IN PREVIOUS YEARS, THEY WILL PERFORM SOMETHING OF A U-TURN AND ALLOW THE UNIONISTS OF THE 'ORANGE ORDER' TO GO THROUGH AFTER ALL. SO IT IS GOING TO BE A VERY HECTIC FEW DAYS. THIS PARADE IS DUE TO TAKE PLACE NEXT SUNDAY AND IT IS GOING TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AGENDA IN NORTHERN IRELAND UNTIL THAT PERIOD AND POSSIBLY WELL BEYOND THAT.

[03] NORTHERN IRELAND MOVES AHEAD TOWARD PEACE BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

REISSUING TO REFLECT VOTE TODAY IN THE NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY --- CONTENT=

INTRO: PEOPLE IN THE BRITISH ISLES, AND AROUND THE WORLD, WHO WANT PEACE TO BREAK OUT AND THRIVE IN NORTHERN IRELAND, ARE HOLDING THEIR BREATH THIS WEEK, AS THE TROUBLED PROVINCE'S NEW LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY MEETS FOR THE FIRST TIME. THE BODY, PROVIDED FOR IN THE CELEBRATED GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT, FACES A HOSTILE CLIMATE IMMEDIATELY.

THAT IS BECAUSE THE FIRST AND LARGEST OF THIS YEAR'S PROTESTANT MARCHES, CELEBRATING A LONG AGO VICTORY OVER CATHOLICS, IS SCHEDULED TO GO THROUGH THE TOWN OF PORTADOWN ON JULY 5TH, AND THERE IS GROWING TENSION FOLLOWING AN ORDER FROM AUTHORITIES THAT MARCHERS MUST AVOID A CATHOLIC NEIGHBORHOOD TRADITIONALLY ON THEIR ROUTE.

ALL OF THIS IS DRAWING THE ATTENTION OF U-S DAILIES, WATCHING IT WITH ONE EDITORIAL EYE, WHILE KEEPING NOTE OF PRESIDENT CLINTON'S TRAVELS IN CHINA. WE GET A SAMPLING OF COMMENT ON NORTHERN IRELAND NOW FROM ______________________ WHO JOINS US WITH A QUOTE OR TWO IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.

TEXT: AS THIS WAS WRITTEN, THE NEWLY-ELECTED ASSEMBLY WAS MEETING FOR THE FIRST TIME AND TENSIONS OVER THE PLANNED SUNDAY MARCH ARE RISING. THE ASSEMBLY'S FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WAS THE ELECTION OF A CHIEF MINISTER, IN EFFECT A PRIME MINISTER FOR THE PROVINCE. THE OFFICE WENT TO THE LEADER OF THE PRO-BRITISH ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY, DAVID TRIMBLE.

HIS DEPUTY WILL BE SEAMUS MALLON, A MODERATE IRISH NATIONALIST. HOWEVER VOA NEWS IS REPORTING THE OPENING ASSEMBLY SESSION IN BELFAST IS BEING OVERSHADOWED BY PROSPECTS FOR VIOLENCE DURING THE PROTESTANT MARCHING SEASON. THE PROTESTANT "ORANGE ORDER" HAS SAID IT WILL IGNORE AN OFFICIAL BAN AND PARADE THROUGH A CATHOLIC AREA OF THE MAINLY PROTESTANT TOWN, PORTADOWN, ON SUNDAY.

THE U-S DAILY THAT HAS EDITORIALIZED PERHAPS MORE THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR PAPER ON THIS ISSUE, "THE [CLEVELAND, OHIO] PLAIN DEALER," HAS THESE THOUGHTS ON THE DAWN OF A NEW ERA IN ULSTER.

VOICE: THE DECISION [TO BAN THE PARADE THROUGH THE CATHOLIC AREA] .....ENSURED THAT THE PROVINCE'S NEWLY ELECTED ASSEMBLY WILL MEET TODAY [7/1] AMID ORANGE THREATS TO DEFY THE BAN AND CATHOLIC TALK OF SELF-DEFENSE. TO THOSE NOT ENVELOPED IN THE HEATED ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDING THE PROVINCE'S TRIBAL RITUALS, THE REROUTING OF SUNDAY'S ANNUAL WALK TO DRUMCREE CHURCH SIMPLY MEANS THAT MARCHERS WILL HAVE TO LEAVE A SERVICE THE SAME WAY THEY ARRIVE INSTEAD OF THROUGH A CATHOLIC NEIGHBORHOOD THAT DOES NOT WANT THEM. BUT PROTESTANTS ARE TAKING THE REROUTING AS A SIGN THAT NATIONALISTS COMMITTED TO THE REUNIFICATION OF IRELAND NOW CALL THE SHOTS [ARE IN CONTROL] IN THE NORTH, WHERE PROTESTANTS ARE IN THE MAJORITY. HOWEVER DISTORTED, SUCH A PERCEPTION WILL INCREASE THE DIFFICULTIES OF MAINSTREAM UNIONIST LEADER DAVID TRIMBLE ...... AS HE TRIES TO PRESERVE HIS SLIM MAJORITY OF UNIONISTS COMMITTED TO THE TERMS OF THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT. ..... BUT EVEN WITHOUT THE DRUMCREE [PARADE] CONTROVERSY, NO ONE WOULD HAVE PREDICTED A SMOOTH PATH FOR THE NEW LEGISLATIVE BODY. ....... NORTHERN IRELAND'S BEST HOPE FOR CHANGE LIES WITH THOSE WHO ARE PREPARED TO SUBORDINATE DIFFERENCES TO THE AIM OF FORGING A NEW SOCIETY.

TEXT: AS FOR "THE NEW YORK TIMES," THE BIG, INFLUENTIAL DAILY SAYS THE COMING PAIR OF EVENTS WILL EACH BE A HARBINGER OF WHAT LIES AHEAD, POSITIVELY OR NEGATIVELY.

VOICE: WHILE THE PARADE SEASON LOOKS DISHEARTENINGLY FAMILIAR, THE OPENING OF THE NEW ASSEMBLY SHOWS THAT THINGS ARE CHANGING IN NORTHERN IRELAND. THE 108 MEMBERS ELECTED LAST WEEK ..... CAN WORK ONLY IF POLITICIANS BREAK OUT OF THEIR SECTARIAN THINKING. ..... THE HARD-LINERS OPPOSE THE PEACE AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE ASSEMBLY WILL GET NO POWERS UNTIL A BODY LINKING ITS MEMBERS WITH IRISH LEGISLATORS IS IN PLACE. THEY HAVE NEARLY ENOUGH MEMBERS TO SABOTAGE THE ASSEMBLY ON KEY VOTES, SO A FEW DEFECTIONS FROM MR. TRIMBLE'S PARTY WOULD BE FATAL. .... SINN FEIN'S PRESIDENT, GERRY ADAMS, LIKE MR. TRIMBLE, FACES A PARADOX. HE BADLY NEEDS TO PREVENT THOSE ULSTER UNIONISTS FROM DEFECTING. HE COULD HELP BY JOINING MR. TRIMBLE IN PRESSING THE I-R-A TO BEGIN GIVING UP ITS ARMS.

TEXT: AN AMERICAN WRITER, LIONEL SHRIVER, WHO HAS LIVED IN BELFAST SINCE 1987, WRITING ON THE OP-ED PAGE OF WEDNESDAY'S [7/1] "WALL STREET JOURNAL" SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL POLITICIANS, BOTH ROMAN CATHOLIC AND PROTESTANT, DEPRIVED OF THE OPPORTUNITY TO GOVERN FOR A QUARTER CENTURY, MAY SIMPLY NOT BE CAPABLE OF IT. AND HE MAKES THIS PROPOSITION.

VOICE: WERE IT TO FALL APART, DAILY LIFE FOR MOST NORTHERNERS WOULD PROCEED AS USUAL. ULSTER FOLK ARE ACCUSTOMED TO THEIR INSTITUTIONS IMPLODING AND, IF RECENT HISTORY IS ANYTHING TO GO BY, THEY WOULD CONTINUE TO VOTE FOR THE SAME OLD CANDIDATES, WHETHER OR NOT THESE REPRESENTATIVES BROUGHT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT. AFTER TWO GENERATIONS MANY REGARD TERRORISM AS A FACT OF LIFE, LIKE THE ISLAND'S BAD WEATHER. (IN A RECENT B-B-C SURVEY, OVER HALF OF THOSE POLLED DID NOT BELIEVE 'THE WAR IS OVER.')

..... BY AND LARGE, NORTHERN IRELAND HAS BEEN A PLEASANT PLACE TO LIVE DURING 'DIRECT RULE' FROM LONDON, AN ERA THE NEW LOCAL ASSEMBLY IS INTENDED TO CONCLUDE. SHOULD THAT ASSEMBLY COLLAPSE LIKE ITS ANTECEDENT 25 YEARS AGO, FULL-SCALE CIVIL UNREST IS IMPROBABLE, CIVIL BREAKDOWN ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE. ..... IN SUM, [SUMMARY] WHILE ULSTER'S CITIZENRY MIGHT PREFER A PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT, THEY CAN LIVE WITHOUT IT. FEW WOULD RELISH CONTINUED DIRECT RULE, BUT VIRTUALLY NO ONE WOULD DREAD IT. AS A KNOWN QUANTITY, DIRECT RULE IS COMFORTABLE. BY CONTRAST, LOCAL GOVERNMENT BY HISTRIONIC POLITICIANS WHO HAVE NOT BEEN ENTRUSTED WITH REAL POWER FOR 25 YEARS SEEMS FAR MORE FRIGHTENING. ..... DIRECT RULE [BY THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT FROM LONDON] HAS HAD ITS DOWNSIDE. BUT IT'S [IT HAS] WORKED.

TEXT: "NEWSDAY", ON LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK, IS STILL HOPEFUL DESPITE THE OBVIOUS PROBLEMS.

VOICE: TO MENTION OPTIMISM IN THE SAME SENTENCE AS NORTHERN IRELAND IS TO RISK AN OXYMORIN. BUT THIS TIME THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE. THE ELECTION OF A NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ACTUALLY MAY RESULT IN THE FIRST SUBSTANTIVE MOVE TOWARD NORMALCY FOR THE STRIFE-WRACKED REGION.

TEXT: "THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR" ALSO MUSES OVER THE STILL SIMMERING HATRED THAT THREATENS THE PEACE.

VOICE: THOSE WHO HAVE WORKED AND PRAYED TO SEE THE CANDLE OF PEACE GLOW BRIGHTLY IN NORTHERN IRELAND MUST CONTINUE TO CIRCLE ROUND TO PROTECT IT FROM THE STILL-WHIRLING WINDS OF SECTARIAN HATRED. /// OPT /// DESPITE A CEASE-FIRE BY THE IRISH REPUBLICAN ARMY, SCATTERED BOMBINGS HAVE CONTINUED......(AND).........UNIONISTS ARE PREPARING FOR THEIR ANNUAL DRUMCREE PARADE JULY 5TH, IN WHICH.......MARCHERS CELEBRATE A PROTESTANT MILITARY VICTORY IN 1690....(BY PARADING)......THROUGH A CATHOLIC NEIGHBORHOOD......EXTREME ELEMENTS ON BOTH SIDES WOULD RATHER ABANDON LOGIC FOR BLIND LOYALTY TO AN OUTGROWN PAST. THE FUTURE LIES ELSEWHERE, IN A NEW ASSEMBLY, WHICH MEETS FOR THE FIRST TIME JULY FIRST. /// END OPT

THE DECISION BY THE U-S CENTRAL BANK TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED WAS EXPECTED ON WALL STREET AND HAD NO EFFECT ON STOCK PRICES.

THE STOCK OF THE ADVANCED FIBRE COMMUNICATIONS COMPANY LOST MORE THAN HALF ITS VALUE AFTER THE MAKER OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORK SYSTEMS SAID ITS EARNINGS WILL BE FAR SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS.

THE CONSOLIDATION MOVEMENT IN THE AMERICAN BANKING INDUSTRY CONTINUES. THE STAR BANC CORPORATION WILL MERGE WITH THE FIRSTAR COMPANY IN A DEAL WORTH SIX POINT SEVEN BILLION DOLLARS. THE COMBINED BANK WILL BE THE NATION'S 21ST LARGEST, PRIMARILY SERVING CUSTOMERS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES.

GENERAL MOTORS SAYS THE STRIKES AND PLANT SHUTDOWNS OF RECENT WEEKS HAVE ALREADY COST IT ALMOST ONE POINT TWO BILLION DOLLARS. THAT IS ALMOST ALL OF WHAT G-M WAS EXPECTED TO EARN IN THE SECOND QUARTER.

GERMAN AUTOMAKER VOLKSWAGEN IS REPORTEDLY IN TALKS FOR AN ALLIANCE WITH VOLVO OF SWEDEN. ANALYSTS SAY A DEAL MIGHT HELP VOLKSWAGEN ENTER THE MARKET FOR HEAVY TRUCKS IN WHICH VOLVO IS WELL ESTABLISHED.

THE AMOCO OIL COMPANY OF THE UNITED STATES WILL SPEND ALMOST HALF A BILLION DOLLARS TO DEVELOP NATURAL GAS FIELDS IN EGYPT. AMOCO IS ALREADY THE LARGEST INTERNATIONAL INVESTOR IN EGYPT.(SIGNED) NEB/NY/BA/LSF/PT
01-Jul-98 5:25 PM EDT (2125 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] WEDNESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: THE NEW, PARTIALLY SELF-GOVERNING LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY IN NORTHERN IRELAND CONVENES TODAY, AND U-S NEWSPAPERS ARE COMMENTING ON THIS LATEST DEVELOPMENT TOWARD PEACE. OTHER TOPICS UNDER EDITORIAL SCRUTINY THIS FIRST DAY OF JULY INCLUDE: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S CHINA TRIP; JAPAN'S ECONOMIC REMEDIES FOR ITS DECLINING ECONOMY; AND FIGHTING AIDS. NOW, JOINING US AT THE MICROPHONE IS ______________________ WITH A SAMPLING OF THESE COMMENTARIES IN TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL EDITORIALS THE PAST FEW DAYS CONCERNING THE LATEST PEACE MOVES IN NORTHERN IRELAND, AS THAT AREA'S NEW LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY [PREPARES TO MEET] [MET] FOR THE FIRST TIME WEDNESDAY. TODAY, "NEWSDAY" WEIGHS IN WITH THESE THOUGHTS:

VOICE: TO MENTION OPTIMISM IN THE SAME SENTENCE AS NORTHERN IRELAND IS TO RISK AN OXYMORON, BUT THIS TIME THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE. THE ELECTION OF A NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ACTUALLY MAY RESULT IN THE FIRST SUBSTANTIVE MOVE TOWARD NORMALCY FOR THE STRIFE-RACKED REGION. /// OPT /// BACKERS OF THE GOOD FRIDAY PEACE PLAN WON A DECISIVE CONTROLLING MAJORITY IN THE 108-MEMBER LEGISLATIVE BODY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HARD-LINE PROTESTANT OPPONENTS GETTING JUST 28 SEATS - - TWO SHORT OF THE 30 REQUIRED TO BLOCK ACTION OR SUSTAIN A FILIBUSTER. /// END OPT /// ..... SERIOUS OBSTACLES [TO PEACE] WILL CROP UP. THE BRITISH ORDER TO RE-ROUTE THE MOST PROVOCATIVE OF THE PROTESTANT MARCHES OF THE SEASON, CELEBRATING PROTESTANT VICTORIES OVER CATHOLICS THREE CENTURIES AGO, IS A GOOD STEP, BUT IT MAY CAUSE A VIOLENT REACTION. STILL, THE MOMENTUM TOWARD PEACE APPEARS TO BE BUILDING. THAT JUSTIFIES A MEASURE OF CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM.

TEXT: IN BOSTON, "THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR" WRITES ABOUT THE STILL SIMMERING HATRED THAT THREATENS ALL THE PEACE MOVES.

VOICE: THOSE WHO HAVE WORKED AND PRAYED TO SEE THE CANDLE OF PEACE GLOW BRIGHTLY IN NORTHERN IRELAND MUST CONTINUE TO CIRCLE ROUND TO PROTECT IT FROM THE STILL-WHIRLING WINDS OF SECTARIAN HATRED. /// OPT /// DESPITE A CEASE-FIRE BY THE IRISH REPUBLICAN ARMY, SCATTERED BOMBINGS HAVE CONTINUED .....[AND] .... UNIONISTS ARE PREPARING FOR THEIR ANNUAL DRUMCREE PARADE JULY 5TH, IN WHICH ..... MARCHERS CELEBRATE A PROTESTANT MILITARY VICTORY IN 1690 ... [BY PARADING] .. THROUGH A CATHOLIC NEIGHBORHOOD .... EXTREME ELEMENTS ON BOTH SIDES WOULD RATHER ABANDON LOGIC FOR BLIND LOYALTY TO AN OUTGROWN PAST. THE FUTURE LIES ELSEWHERE, IN A NEW ASSEMBLY, WHICH MEETS FOR THE FIRST TIME JULY FIRST. /// END OPT ///

TEXT: HALF A WORLD AWAY, PRESIDENT CLINTON CONTINUES HIS VISIT TO CHINA, WHILE PAPERS HERE ASSESS THE CHANGES IN THAT VAST COUNTRY. "THE NEW YORK TIMES" IS SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGED BY SOME DEVELOPMENTS.

VOICE: /// OPT /// PRESIDENT CLINTON'S TRIP TO CHINA HAS GIVEN AMERICANS AN EXTENDED LOOK AT POLITICAL LIFE IN THAT COMPLEX AND CHANGING COUNTRY. SOME OF WHAT THEY HAVE WITNESSED WAS PREDICTABLE, INCLUDING THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORT TO CLEAR OUTSPOKEN DISSIDENTS FROM MR. CLINTON'S PATH. BUT A GOOD DEAL WAS NOT, LIKE THE UNCENSORED BROADCAST .... OF MR. CLINTON'S NEWS CONFERENCE WITH PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN. /// END OPT /// THE SIGNS OF UNEXPECTED OPENNESS MAY BE THE MOST ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLINTON VISIT. WHETHER THE CHANGE IS A TEMPORARY RELAXATION OR A HARBINGER OF GREATER FREEDOM IS NOT CLEAR. ..... [BUT] AS CHINA CONTINUES TO MODERNIZE ITS ECONOMY, IT WILL FACE NEW PRESSURES FROM WITHIN AND WITHOUT TO OPEN UP ITS POLITICAL SYSTEM AS WELL. //// OPT /// MR. CLINTON HAS REPEATEDLY USED HIS PUBLIC APPEARANCES ON THIS TRIP TO POINT OUT THE CONNECTION BETWEEN ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FREEDOM. MISSIONS OF CHINESE HAVE BEEN LISTENING ATTENTIVELY. /// END OPT ///

TEXT: "USA TODAY" RUNS A LONG EDITORIAL ABOUT HOW THE PROBLEMS OF THE JAPANESE ECONOMY ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT U-S FIRMS. THE BIG, NATIONAL DAILY ALSO RAISES MORE DOUBTS ABOUT TOKYO'S TRUE COMMITMENT TO MAKE THE NECESSARY, BUT HARD, ECONOMIC CHANGES.

VOICE: CAN JAPAN GET ITS ECONOMIC ACT TOGETHER TO SAVE ITSELF BEFORE ITS STUMBLING ECONOMY DRAGS DOWN U-S AND OTHER ECONOMIES? ... UNDER PRESSURE FROM TRADING PARTNERS AND WITH ELECTIONS LOOMING JULY 12TH, JAPAN'S PRIME MINISTER .... HASHIMOTO IS PUTTING OUT A LONG OVERDUE PLAN TO CLEAN UP HIS COUNTRY'S HUGE BANKING MESS. /// OPT /// AMONG STEPS PROMISED ..... A BRIDGE BANK MODELED ON THE U-S RESOLUTION TRUST CORPORATION THAT CLOSED INSOLVENT SAVINGS AND LOANS HERE IN THE 1980S. THAT'S AN ESSENTIAL STEP THAT JAPAN HAS RESISTED ....... BUT CREATING THE AGENCY IS NOT THE SAME AS MAKING IT WORK, AND JAPAN HAS YET TO PROVE ... IT CAN FREE ITSELF OF A BUREAUCRACY THAT HAS SO FAR REFUSED TO CHANGE ITS WAYS, RENDERING PAST REFORMS INEFFECTIVE. /// END OPT /// ..... TIME IS RUNNING OUT. JAPAN NEEDS TO FIX ITS BANKS QUICKLY AND REVIVE ITS ECONOMY BEFORE ITS MISERY SPREADS. BUT DON'T BET IT WILL.

TEXT: THE EFFECT OF THE GLOBAL AIDS EPIDEMIC ON AFRICA CONTINUES TO RAISE CONCERNS IN SEVERAL PAPERS, AS THE 12TH WORLD CONFERENCE ON AIDS CONTINUES IN GENEVA, SWITZERLAND. "THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION" REFLECTS ABOUT THE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE INDUSTRALIZED AND DEVELOPING NATIONS IN TERMS OF TREATMENT.

VOICE: OF THE SIX-HUNDRED-THOUSAND INFANTS A YEAR WHO COME INTO THE WORLD ALREADY INFECTED, 90 PERCENT ARE BORN IN AFRICA. AFRICA REMAINS THE HARDEST-HIT CONTINENT. /// OPT /// IN SOME AREAS, 70 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION IS INFECTED. ..... [AND] EVEN THOUGH AIDS' MOST TRAGIC TOLL IS TAKEN IN POOR COUNTRIES, THE DISEASE INFECTS MORE PEOPLE AND TAKES MORE LIVES THAN IT SHOULD IN THE RICHEST NATION IN THE WORLD, THE UNITED STATES. /// END OPT /// ..... UNLIKE MANY NATIONS .... WE HAVE THE RESOURCES TO FIGHT AIDS. ANY FAILURE TO DO SO BECAUSE WE LACK WILL AND COMPASSION IS SHAMEFUL.

TEXT: LASTLY, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES" IS SALUTING A RECENT TRADE CONFERENCE BETWEEN BUSINESSMEN AND WOMEN FROM EL SALVADOR AND THEIR COUNTRYMEN WHO NOW LIVE AND WORK IN CALIFORNIA. IT WAS A CONFERENCE DESIGNED TO STIMULATE TRADE BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS.

VOICE: NO OTHER CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRY WAS DAMAGED AS BADLY IN THE WARS OF THE 1980S AS THEIRS. LEFTIST GUERRILLAS AND A U-S-BACKED MILITARY REGIME ENGAGED IN A STRUGGLE THAT PRODUCED LITTLE BUT DEATH AND ASHES. HERE IN LOS ANGELES, SALVADORAN EMIGRES SOUGHT TO BURY THE BLOODY PAST. NOW THEY SEEK TO SPARK A REVIVAL OF THE SALVADORAN ECONOMY, WHICH LIKE THOSE OF ALL OTHER CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES IS MINUSCULE IN COMPARISON WITH AMERICA'S . ....... WITH A KICK START FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE PLAYERS WILL MAKE SOME MONEY AND THE DARK CHAPTER OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN WARS WILL FADE A BIT FURTHER.

TEXT: THAT CONCLUDES THIS SAMPLING OF COMMENTARIES FROM WEDNESDAY'S DAILY PAPERS.
NEB/ANG/GE
01-Jul-98 10:49 AM EDT (1449 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] IRAQ / KURDS (L-ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

INTRO: TALKS AIMED AT RECONCILING THE MAIN KURDISH FACTIONS IN NORTHERN IRAQ ARE CONTINUING ON A WEEKLY BASIS. OFFICIALS FROM MASSOUD BARZANI'S KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY, K-D-P, AND JALAL TALABANI'S PATRIOTIC UNION OF KURDISTAN, P-U-K, SAY SOME PROGRESS HAS BEEN ACHIEVED. BUT AS AMBERIN ZAMAN REPORTS FROM ANKARA, OBSTACLES STILL REMAIN.

TEXT: EVERY THURSDAY, SENIOR OFFICIALS FROM THE P-U-K AND THE K-D-P GET TOGETHER TO DISCUSS WAYS TO RESUME THEIR POWER-SHARING AGREEMENT WHICH COLLAPSED MORE THAN FOUR YEARS AGO.

THE TWO FACTIONS WENT TO WAR IN MAY, 1994, AFTER NEARLY TWO YEARS OF JOINTLY ADMINISTERING NORTHERN IRAQ. SINCE THE END OF THE 1991 GULF WAR, THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER ALLIED MILITARY PROTECTION.

THE CONFLICT BETWEEN THE TWO KURDISH FACTIONS WAS TRIGGERED BY A LAND DISPUTE BETWEEN A FAMILY WITH P-U-K TIES AND A K-D-P OFFICIAL WHO WAS ALLEGEDLY SHOT DEAD BY P-U-K FIGHTERS. BUT ANALYSTS SAY THE REAL CAUSE OF THE WAR IS THAT BOTH MR. TALABANI OF THE PATRIOTIC UNION AND MR. BARZANI OF THE KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY EACH CONSIDERS HIMSELF THE ONLY LEGITIMATE LEADER OF THE ESTIMATED THREE MILLION KURDS IN IRAQ.

A U-S LED MEDIATION EFFORT, KNOWN AS THE ANKARA PEACE PROCESS, WAS SUSPENDED LATE LAST YEAR AFTER TURKEY -- ONE OF THE CO- SPONSORS OF THAT PROCESS -- ACCUSED THE PATRIOTIC UNION OF PROVIDING ARMS AND BASES FOR ANOTHER FACTION, THE KURDISTAN WORKERS PARTY, P-K-K.

SHAZAD SAIB -- THE ANKARA REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PATRIOTIC UNION DENIES THAT HIS PARTY SUPPORTS THE P-K-K.

THERE ARE NO P-K-K MILITARY ELEMENTS IN OUR REGION AT ALL, AND SO THERE IS NO ANY REASON TO ACCUSE US OF THAT.

THE P-K-K -- A KURD REBEL GROUP THAT HAS BASES IN TURKEY AND NORTHERN IRAQ -- HAS BEEN WAGING A 14-YEAR CAMPAIGN FOR SELF RULE IN SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY. BUT SUPPORT FOR THE P-K-K REBELS HAS DWINDLED IN RECENT YEARS BECAUSE OF ITS POLICY OF MURDERING KURDISH CIVILIANS WHO REFUSE TO HELP ITS FIGHTERS IN TURKEY OR NORTHERN IRAQ. LAST YEAR, TURKISH WARPLANES BOMBED P-K-K TARGETS IN NORTHERN IRAQ. P-U-K OFFICIALS CHARGED THEIR POSITIONS WERE TARGETED AS WELL. ANKARA DENIES THE ACCUSATIONS.

DESPITE SUCH SETBACKS, A U-S-BROKERED CEASEFIRE BETWEEN THE KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THE PATRIOTIC UNION OF KURDISTAN HAS BEEN HOLDING FOR EIGHT MONTHS NOW. OFFICIALS ON BOTH SIDES SAY THIS IS A VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS HELPED REBUILD CONFIDENCE AND COULD PAVE THE WAY FOR A SOLID PEACE.

THE PROPOSALS THAT WERE MADE BY THE K-D-P TO THE P-U-K TO HAVE A PEACE PLAN IN THREE PHASES -- PHASE ONE BEING CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES WHICH ARE UNDERWAY, AND WE HAVE COVERED A LOT OF GROUND INCLUDING RELEASE OF DETAINEES. SECOND PHASE BEING THE FORMATION OF AN INTERIM GOVERNMENT BASED ON THE OUTCOME OF ELECTIONS OF 1992, WHEREBY THE K-D-P HAD A SLIGHT MAJORITY LEADING TO A FINAL PHASE--PHASE THREE -- AN ELECTION IN THE REGION.

THE P-U-K'S SHAZAD SAIB AGREES THE ONGOING TALKS HAVE PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN RESOLVING DAY-TO-DAY PROBLEMS, BUT HE SAYS CRUCIAL ISSUES, SUCH AS THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INTERIM GOVERNMENT AND THE HOLDING OF ELECTIONS, HAVE YET TO BE DECIDED.

IN FACT THE RESULT OF THOSE WEEKLY TALKS (HAS ONLY BEEN TO SOLVE) TECHNICAL MATTERS CONCERNING ELECTRICITY, CIVIL SERVICE, TRADE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN BOTH SIDES, AND HEALTH AND EDUCATION -- BUT UNFORTUNATELY TILL NOW THEY DIDN'T SOLVE THE MAIN QUESTIONS WHICH (WILL LEAD TO) REAL RECONCILIATION, WHICH IS HOW WE WILL CREATE OR ESTABLISH A NEW TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT THAT WILL LEAD THE REGION TO A NEW ELECTION.

THE K-D-P'S PROPOSAL THAT THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT BE BASED ON THE RESULTS OF THE FIRST EVER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS HELD BY THE IRAQI KURDS IN MAY, 1992, HAS BEEN REJECTED BY THE PATRIOTIC UNION. SOME P-U-K OFFICIALS CHARGE THAT THE NARROW MAJORITY WON BY THE KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY WAS A RESULT OF BALLOT RIGGING. THEY SAY THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT SHOULD DRAW ONE THIRD OF ITS MEMBERS FROM THE KDP, ONE THIRD FROM THE PUK AND THE REMAINING THIRD FROM OTHER PARTIES IN THE REGION.

A SOLID GUARANTEE, A GUARANTEE COMING FROM THE WESTERN ALLIES -- NAMELY U-S-A, BRITAIN AND REGIONAL POWER TURKEY --WILL CERTAINLY HELP THE PROCESS TO GO THROUGH SMOOTHLY. AS FAR AS WE ARE CONCERNED THE LOCAL INITIATIVE IS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE ANKARA [PEACE] PROCESS AND IT IS NOT AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE ANKARA PROCESS.

SOURCES CLOSE TO THE PEACE TALKS SAY A HIGH LEVEL U-S-LED DELEGATION, WHICH WILL ALSO INCLUDE TURKISH AND BRITISH OFFICIALS, IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL TO NORTHERN IRAQ THIS MONTH. IT WILL BE THE FIRST VISIT IN OVER A YEAR BY SENIOR U-S OFFICIALS TO NORTHERN IRAQ -- A SIGN, SOME ANALYSTS SAY, THAT THE ANKARA PEACE PROCESS HAS GAINED A NEW IMPETUS. (SIGNED)
NEB/AZ/KL/MMK
01-Jul-98 8:48 AM EDT (1248 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] U-S/KOSOVO (L ONLY) BY GIL BUTLER (STATE DEPARTMENT)

INTRO: THE STATE DEPARTMENT SAYS THE UNITED STATES IS ENGAGED IN INTENSIFIED DIPLOMACY TO TRY TO GET A CEASE FIRE IN YUGOSLAVIA'S KOSOVO PROVINCE. CORRESPONDENT GIL BUTLER REPORTS A CEASE FIRE IS SEEN AS NECESSARY TO GET THE WITHDRAWAL OF SERBIAN SECURITY FORCES WHO HAVE BEEN FIGHTING INDEPENDENCE MINDED ETHNIC ALBANIANS IN THE PROVINCE.

TEXT: THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE MADE FOUR DEMANDS OF YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC: HUMANITARIAN ACCESS IN KOSOVO, WITHDRAWAL OF SERBIAN FORCES THERE, ALLOWING INTERNATIONAL MONITORING TEAMS, AND NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE ETHNIC ALBANIANS IN THE PRESENCE OF INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS. HUMANITARIAN ACCESS HAS BEEN ALLOWED, AND AN INTERNATIONAL MONITORING TEAM IS NOW BEING PREPARED TO OBSERVE THE SITUATION IN KOSOVO.

BUT AT THE STATE DEPARTMENT, SPOKESMAN JAMES RUBIN ACKNOWLEDGED THAT AS A PRACTICAL MATTER, PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC IS UNLIKELY TO ORDER A PULL-BACK WITHOUT A CEASE FIRE BETWEEN THE REBEL KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY AND THE SERBIAN FORCES.

ALL I AM SAYING IS THAT AS A PRACTICAL MATTER, WE DON'T EXPECT TO SEE THAT KIND OF PULL-BACK IN THE ABSENCE OF A CEASE FIRE. THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE WOULDN'T PREFER TO SEE IT WITHOUT A CEASE FIRE. BUT AS A PRACTICAL MATTER, THAT IS GOING TO BE, IN OUR VIEW, THE MOST LIKELY SEQUENCE. AND IF HE WANTS TO CHANGE THE BLAME THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS PLACED ON HIS SHOULDERS, HE SHOULD TAKE ALL FOUR OF THOSE STEPS.

MR. RUBIN DESCRIBED THE AMERICAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORT USING THE BASKETBALL TERM, A "FULL COURT PRESS", MEANING AN INTENSIVE EFFORT. U-S AMBASSADOR CHRISTOPHER HILL HAS BEEN HOLDING TALKS IN THE BALKANS, SPECIAL ENVOY ROBERT GELBARD IS HEADING BACK TO THE REGION IN A FEW DAYS AND THE INTERNATIONAL CONTACT GROUP ON KOSOVO WILL MEET IN BONN NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE EFFORT HAS ALSO INCLUDED TALKS WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF THE KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY BUT THE STATE DEPARTMENT EMPHASIZED IT STILL CONSIDERS IBRIHIM RUGOVA THE CENTRAL FIGURE ON THE ETHNIC ALBANIAN SIDE. (SIGNED)
NEB/MGB/MMK
01-Jul-98 3:54 PM EDT (1954 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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