Voice of America, 97-06-07

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] ALBANIA REACT (S ONLY) BY VICTOR BEATTIE (WASHINGTON)

[02] CENTRAL EUROPE/MEETING BY STEFAN BOS (BUDAPEST)

[03] IRISH ELECTION (L) BY DAVID WEBER (LONDON)

[04] NATO MOVES EAST, RUSSIA MOVES WEST BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

[01] ALBANIA REACT (S ONLY) BY VICTOR BEATTIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: AN AMERICAN ANALYST ON ALBANIAN POLITICS SAYS HE IS NOT SURPRISED THE GOVERNMENT IN TIRANA WILL LIKELY ASK FOR AN EXTENTION OF THE MANDATE OF THE ITALIAN-LED MULTI-NATIONAL FORCE. V-O-A'S VICTOR BEATTIE REPORTS JAMES CROSS OF HEIDELBERG COLLEGE IN OHIO ALSO SAYS HIS SOURCES IN ALBANIA ARE EXPRESSING PESSIMISM ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF MARKET REFORMS:

TEXT: MR. CROSS SAYS ALBANIANS STILL ARE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF CIVIL UNREST SPARKED BY THE COLLAPSE OF FAILED INVESTMENT SCHEMES. AND HE SAYS IT IS IMPORTANT THAT AN EXTERNAL PRESENCE BE MAINTAINED FOR THE TIME BEING:

WHEN THE WHOLE COUNTRY STARTED SLIDING DOWN THE SLOPE INTO ANARCHY AND THE MILITARY DEPOTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MUCH EMTIED OF ALL THEIR WEAPONS AND ARE STILL IN THE HANDS OF MANY CIVILIANS, IF THE COUNTRY WERE TO ONCE AGAIN GO INTO SOME DEGREE OF CHAOS WITHOUT AN INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE THERE WOULD BE MANY MORE LIVES LOST.

THE SIX-THOUSAND PERSON FORCE, MADE UP OF EUROPEAN TROOPS, ARRIVED IN MARCH TO SECURE PORTS AND AIRPORTS AND PROTECT HUMANITARIAN AID. IT IS DUE TO DEPART LATER THIS MONTH. A FORCE SPOKESMAN SAYS THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL IS EXPECTED TO BE ASKED TO EXTEND ITS MANDATE THREE MONTHS TO SEPTEMBER. MEANWHILE, MR. CROSS SAYS HIS SOURCES TELL HIM CORRUPTION INVOLVING THE RULING DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS DISCOURAGING MARKET AND POLITICAL REFORMS. HE SAYS MANY ALBANIANS HAVE BEEN FORCED TO SEEK ASYLUM OR GO INTO HIDING. (SIGNED)
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07-Jun-97 6:01 PM EDT (2201 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] CENTRAL EUROPE/MEETING BY STEFAN BOS (BUDAPEST)

INTRO: THE PRESIDENTS OF EIGHT CENTRAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ON SATURDAY BACKED THE INTEGRATION OF EX COMMUNIST STATES INTO NATO AND THE EUROPEAN UNION. BUT, AFTER TWO DAYS OF TALKS IN SLOVENIA, SOME HEADS OF STATE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT NOT ALL COUNTRIES BE ALLOWED TO JOIN THE ORGANIZATIONS.

TEXT: SLOVENIAN PRESIDENT MILAN KUCAN, WHO HOSTED THE LEADERS AT A MEETING OF THE EIGHT STATES, URGED WESTERN LEADERS NOT TO LIMIT NATO AND EUROPEAN UNION EXPANSION. SO FAR, ONLY HUNGARY, POLAND AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC ARE ALMOST GUARANTEED ON THE LIST TO JOIN THE NATO ALLIANCE. THE THREE FORMER WARSAW PACT NATIONS ARE ALSO CANDIDATES FOR A FRESH ROUND OF EUROPEAN UNITY ENLARGEMENT. THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH THE SIGNING OF A TREATY IN AMSTERDAM LATER THIS MONTH.

MR. KUCAN SAID FURTHER INTEGRATION IS CRUCIAL AND DESIRABLE ALTHOUGH HE STRESSED COUNTRIES MUST NOT LOSE THEIR OWN IDENTITY.

PRESIDENT MICHAL KOVAC OF SLOVAKIA, WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO JOIN NATO OR THE EUROPEAN UNITY IN A FIRST ROUND, WARNED WESTERN LEADERS NOT TO LEAVE COUNTRIES ON TJHE SIDELINES. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, HE AN OTHER PRESIDENTS SEEM TO AGREE THAT EUROPEAN INTEGRATION IS NOT A PANACEA WHICH WILL SOLVE ALL ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.

AUSTRIA WARNED THE NEED FOR SINGLE EUROPEAN CURRENCY MAY BE HARD TO EXPLAIN TO THOSE SUFFERING MOST UNDER TOUGH ECONOMIC MEASURES. (SIGNED)
NEB/SB/SD
07-Jun-97 6:54 PM EDT (2254 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] IRISH ELECTION (L) BY DAVID WEBER (LONDON)

INTRO: THE LONG AND COMPLICATED COUNTING OF VOTES BEGAN SATURDAY IN IRELAND'S ELECTION OF A NEW PARLIAMENT. FROM LONDON, DAVID WEBER REPORTS THAT EXIT POLLS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER-RIGHT FIANNA FAIL PARTY HAS RECEIVED THE MOST VOTES -- BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR OUTRIGHT RULE.

TEXT: THE EXIT POLL CONDUCTED BY THE IRISH TIMES NEWSPAPER GIVES 44 PERCENT OF THE VOTE TO FIANNA FAIL, MEANING THAT PARTY LEADER BERTIE AHERN IS LIKELY TO BE IRELAND'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER.

HE GAINS ANOTHER FOUR PERCENTAGE POINTS FROM HIS POLITICAL ALLY, THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT PARTY, ACCORDING TO THE TIMES' SURVEY. THIS WOULD GIVE MR. AHERN JUST UNDER HALF OF THE 166 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT.

ANOTHER EXIT POLL, BY IRISH RADIO, PREDICTS THAT IRELAND WILL HAVE A HUNG PARLIAMENT, WITH NEITHER OF THE MAIN POLITICAL GROUPINGS ABLE TO MUSTER A PARLIAMENT MAJORITY WITHOUT HELP FROM ONE OF THE SMALLER PARTIES.

THIS IS JUST THE KIND OF INCONCLUSIVE RESULT THAT DUBLIN'S FINANCIAL COMMUNITY HAS BEEN FEARING. THEY SAY A PERIOD OF POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY COULD SLOW DOWN IRELAND'S ECONOMIC BOOM. AFTER YEARS OF STAGNATION, THE IRISH ECONOMY HAS BECOME ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL IN THE EUROPEAN UNION.

THE TIMES' EXIT POLL GIVES THE THREE-PARTY COALITION OF THE PRESENT IRISH PRIME MINISTER, JOHN BRUTON, ONLY 38 PER CENT OF THE VOTE. IF THE POLL IS CONFIRMED, IRELAND WILL CONTINUE A 30-YEAR-TREND. DURING THAT TIME, NO SITTING GOVERNMENT HAS EVER BEEN ELECTED FOR A SECOND TERM.

IRELAND HAS A PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATIVE SYSTEM IN WHICH VOTERS LIST ALL LOCAL CANDIDATES FOR PARLIAMENT IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE. SINCE THERE CAN BE AS MANY AS FOUR OR FIVE CANDIDATES FROM SOME CONSTITUENCIES, THIS GREATLY COMPLICATES THE COUNTING PROCESS. IT WILL BE SUNDAY BEFORE ENOUGH BALLOTS ARE COUNTED TO TELL WHICH FACTION -- IF ANY -- WILL HOLD THE BALANCE OF POWER NEXT IN IRELAND. (SIGNED)
NEB/DW/KL
07-Jun-97 12:44 PM EDT (1644 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] NATO MOVES EAST, RUSSIA MOVES WEST BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: IN RESPONSE TO NATO'S PROPOSED EASTWARD EXPANSION, RUSSIA IS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD A CLOSER UNION WITH BELARUS AND PERHAPS BEYOND TO A REVITALIZED KALININGRAD, THE RUSSIAN ENCLAVE BETWEEN POLAND AND LITHUANIA ON THE BALTIC SEA. A FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO BELARUS SAYS THE COUNTRY IS NOT GETTING THE ATTENTION IT DESERVES AS A KEY STRATEGIC AREA BETWEEN EAST AND WEST. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS.

TEXT: DAVID SWARTZ, THE FIRST U-S AMBASSADOR TO BELARUS, RESIGNED IN PROTEST OVER WASHINGTON'S FAILURE, IN HIS OPINION, TO PAY SUFFICIENT ATTENTION TO THE NEWLY INDEPENDENT COUNTRY ON RUSSIA'S WESTERN BORDER. HE BELIEVES THAT IN CONCENTRATING SO MUCH ON RUSSIA, THE UNITED STATES NEGLECTED OTHER COUNTRIES SHAKILY EMERGING FROM THE SOVIET ERA. TODAY, ONCE AGAIN, HE THINKS THE EMPHASIS ON NATO EXPANSION IGNORES THE IMPACT ON BELARUS, A VITAL STRATEGIC AREA BETWEEN EAST AND WEST:

IT WAS THROUGH BELARUS THAT NAPOLEONIC ARMIES CAME AND WENT AND SWEDISH ARMIES AND MONGOL HORDES AND WHAT NOT OVER THE YEARS. IT IS ALSO THROUGH BELARUS THAT THE KEY OIL AND GAS PIPLELINES TO WESTERN EUROPE, RAIL LINES, ROAD LINES, ETC., PASS. AND IT IS ALSO BELARUS WHICH IS, FOR WANT OF A BETTER WORD, THE BUFFER BETWEEN THE PROBABLE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF NATO; THAT IS TO SAY THE POLISH-BELARUS BORDER AND RUSSIA.

MR. SWARTZ SAYS CLOSER RUSSIAN TIES TO BELALARUS LEAD, IN TURN, TO A GREATER ROLE FOR KALININGRAD, THE MILITARIZED RUSSIAN ENCLAVE ON THE BALTIC SEA BETWEEN LITHUANIA AND POLAND:

RUSSIA HAS A REAL BIG PROBLEM AS NATO EXPANDS. ITS KALININGRAD ENCLAVE BECOMES EVER MORE ISOLATED. ONE RESULT OF THE NATO EXPANSION IS CERTAIN TO BRING GREATER PRESSURE BY RUSSIA ON LITHUANIA FOR ACCESS TO KALININGRAD. BELARUS IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS IN RUSSIA'S POCKET IN THAT REGARD. SO I WOULD SAY THAT RUSSIA WOULD WANT TO USE BELARUS TO GO THROUGH LITHUANIA TO KALININGRAD.

MR. SWARTZ SAYS MOSCOW HAS SPOKEN QUITE OPENLY OF ESTABLISHING A CORRIDOR FROM BELARUS THROUGH LITHUANIA TO KALININGRAD. BELARUS PRESIDENT ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO HAS RECENTLY MADE AGREEMENTS WITH KALININGRAD FOR INCREASED TRADE AND COMMUNICATIONS.

MR. SWARTZ SAYS THESE DEVELOPMENTS PUT MORE PRESSURE ON UKRAINE, WHICH FEARS BEING DRAWN INTO THE NEW SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS.

BUT IF BELARUS CAN BE A STRATEGIC GAIN FOR MOSCOW, IT COULD ALSO BE AN ECONOMIC BURDEN. THAT IS THE OPINION OF DAVID MARPLES, PROFESSOR OF HISTORY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA IN CANADA, WHO HAS RECENTLY RETURNED FROM BELARUS:

RUSSIA HAS DEFINITELY MOVED FORWARD IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC CHANGE. BELARUS HAS NOT. WHAT CAN BELARUS REALLY BRING TO RUSSIA IN TERMS OF ANY TANGIBLE BENEFIT OTHER THAN EXPANDING THE BORDER WESTWARD? THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH. AND THIS WHY FOR SOME TIME I HAVE BEEN RATHER SKEPTICAL OF RUSSIA'S ATTITUDE TOWARD THE UNION AND HAVE NOT REALLY FELT THEY WERE ALTOGETHER SERIOUS.

PROFESSOR MARPLES NOTES THAT WHEN PRESIDENT LUKASHENKO DREW UP THE ORIGINAL AGREEMENT WITH RUSSIA, IT WAS EIGHTEEN PAGES LONG. BY THE TIME THE RUSSIANS HAD FINISHED WITH IT, THE DOCUMENT WAS REDUCED TO THREE VERY NONCOMMITTAL CLAUSES. (SIGNED)
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06-Jun-97 8:43 PM EDT (0043 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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