Voice of America, 96-09-16

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] MONDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[02] BOSNIAN SERBS ELECTIONS BY PAM TAYLOR (BANJA LUKA)

[03] BOSNIA / ELECTION (L) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

[04] BOSNIA / REFUGEE VOTE (L-O) BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (SARAJEVO)

[05] BOSNIA / SARAJEVO (L) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

[06] BOSNIA CERTIFICATION (S) BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (SARAJEVO)

[07] PERRY / TURKEY (L ONLY) BY EDWARD DE MARCO (ISTANBUL)

[08] YUGOSLAVIA'S SAGGING ECONOMY BY BARRY WOOD (BELGRADE)

[01] MONDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: AMERICAN EDITORIAL WRITERS ARE BEGINNING THE WEEK WITH COMMENTS ABOUT THE BOSNIA ELECTION AT THE TOP OF MANY COLUMNS. OTHER TOPICS UNDER DISCUSSION INCLUDE: THE APPARENTLY STUMBLING DOLE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN; THE LEADERSHIP VACUUM IN RUSSIA; THE SENATE'S REJECTION OF A GAY MARRIAGE BILL; AND THE GROWING PROBLEM OF TEENAGE ILLEGAL DRUG USE. NOW, HERE IS ____________ WITH A CLOSER LOOK AND TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: THE RELATIVELY PEACEFUL BOSNIAN ELECTION OVER THE WEEKEND DRAWS THE ATTENTION OF SEVERAL EDITORIAL WRITERS, INCLUDING THE NEW YORK TIMES, WHICH LEADS WITH IT.

VOICE: "MEASURED AGAINST THE DESTRUCTIVE MILITARY CONFLICT STILL RAGING LESS THAN A YEAR AGO, SATURDAY'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS IN BOSNIA MARKED A CLEAR ADVANCE. BUT MEASURED AGAINST THE PROMISES OF RECONCILIATION AND DEMOCRACY CONTAINED IN THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT, THE ELECTIONS WERE DISAPPOINTINGLY DEFICIENT. ..... FEW VIOLENT INCIDENTS MARRED THE VOTING, IN PART BECAUSE FEW VOTERS DARED TO BOARD THE NATO-PROTECTED BUSES THAT WOULD HAVE CARRIED THEM ACROSS ETHNIC DIVIDING LINES TO VOTE IN THEIR FORMER HOMETOWNS."

[BEGIN OPT]

TEXT: IN THE NATIONALLY-DISTRIBUTED USA TODAY, THERE ARE THESE THOUGHTS:

VOICE: "BOSNIA HAS DEMONSTRATED THAT, WITH NURTURING, PROGRESS TOWARDS PEACE CAN BE MADE. THE LAST NINE MONTHS STAND AS COMPELLING EVIDENCE. BUT THIS HARD-WON CALM REMAINS EGGSHELL FRAGILE. AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-IGNITED WAR IN THE HEART OF EUROPE STILL LURKS. ..... IT TOOK U-S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, AND AN ACCOMPANYING COMMITMENT OF AMERICAN MILITARY FORCES, TO BRING BOSNIA THIS FAR DOWN THE PATH TO PEACE. BOTH WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS PEACE IS TO HAVE A FIGHTING CHANCE."

TEXT: WHILE THE BALTIMORE SUN WRITES THIS ABOUT THE BOSNIA VOTE:

VOICE: "IN BOSNIA, SUCCESS HAS TO BE MEASURED IN NEGATIVES. ..... NO VIOLENCE WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE FLAWED ELECTIONS HELD SATURDAY. NO BREAKUP AND NO BREAKDOWN OF THE NATIONAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS ESTABLISHED THROUGH U-S-SPONSORED DIPLOMACY MUST NOW BE THE GOAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY."

TEXT: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, HOWEVER, WAS NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE VOTING, NOTING:

VOICE: "THE 'CONDITIONS' FOR ELECTIONS SET DOWN IN DAYTON WERE CASUALLY WAVED OFF IN THE NAME OF POLITICAL EXPEDIENCE (NAMELY, PRESIDENT CLINTON'S OWN ELECTION TIMETABLE.) [BEGIN OPT] AND NOT ONLY WERE INDICTED WAR CRIMINALS RATKO MLADIC AND RADOVAN KARADZIC STILL FREE ON ELECTION DAY, CITIZEN KARADZIC ACTUALLY CAST HIS BALLOT IN PLAIN SIGHT. [END OPT] .... THE LAZY MANNER IN WHICH THE ELECTORAL PROCESS WAS ITSELF CONDUCTED HAS SHOWN THE [U-S] ADMINISTRATION'S DISREGARD FOR THE MEANS BY WHICH ITS POLITICAL 'GOALS' ARE ATTAINED."

TEXT: [BEGIN OPT] TODAY'S WASHINGTON POST TAKES ON A SOMEWHAT RELATED, BUT EVEN BROADER TOPIC: CONTINUED U-S INVOLVEMENT IN NATO, ASKING:

VOICE: "SHOULD THE UNITED STATES REMAIN ENGAGED IN EUROPE? THAT IS THE QUESTION EMBEDDED IN ALL THE STARCHY-SOUNDING [DIPLOMATICALLY FORMAL] TALKS ABOUT PRESERVING AND ENLARGING NATO. ....... RELIABLE STUDIES SUGGEST THAT U-S MILITARY COSTS WOULD RISE A TOTAL OF ABOUT FIVE BILLION TO 19 BILLION BETWEEN NOW AND 2010 TO PAY FOR [THE NATO] EXPANSION. ARE CONGRESS AND THE PUBLIC PREPARED TO BEAR THESE COSTS?" [END OPT]

TEXT: TURNING TO DOMESTIC POLITICS, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR LAMENTS THE UNLUCKY TIMING BOB DOLE IS ENCOUNTERING IN HIS PRESIDENTIAL BID, COMPETING AS HE MUST COMPETE WITH HEADLINES ON HURRICANES, IRAQ AND THE BOSNIAN ELECTION.

VOICE: "TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, [MR.] DOLE FACES A CLINTON [CAMPAIGN] ORGANIZATION THAT EVEN ITS OPPONENTS ADMIRE FOR ITS SMOOTH OPERATION AND RAPID RESPONSE."

[BEGIN OPT]

TEXT: NEWSDAY CRITICIZES MR. DOLE FOR HIS OPPOSITION TO THE FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE ACT PASSED EARLIER THIS YEAR IN CONGRESS.

VOICE: "[MR.] DOLE SAYS HE BELIEVES LEAVE POLICIES SHOULD BE SET BY STATES, COUNTIES, INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES OR EVEN WORKERS THEMSELVES AND THAT HE'D PERSONALLY FAVOR 'COMPASSIONATE' LEAVE. BUT IT IS JUST SUCH VAGUENESS AND UNEVEN TREATMENT OF WORKERS THAT LED TO ENACTMENT OF THIS WORKABLE LAW. [MR.] DOLE SHOULD CHECK HIS FACTS AND CHANGE HIS TUNE."

TEXT: OVERSEAS AGAIN, AS NEWSDAY, ON LONG ISLAND, WONDERS IN ITS LEAD EDITORIAL, WHO'S IN CHARGE IN THE KREMLIN BECAUSE PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN'S IS IN A MOSCOW HOSPITAL UNDERGOING TESTS PRIOR TO HEART SURGERY.

VOICE: "THE ORDERLY TRANSFER OF POWER FROM THE INCAPACITATED LEADER OF A COUNTRY AS LARGE, AS SIGNIFICANT AND - - WITH ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL - - POTENTIALLY AS DANGEROUS AS RUSSIA IS OF MORE THAN PASSING INTEREST AMONG FOREIGN POLICY MAKERS FROM WASHINGTON TO BEIJING. ..... A POLITICAL CRISIS COULD ERUPT IF [MR.] YELTSIN'S RECUPERATION DOES NOT PERMIT HIM TO RETURN TO OFFICE QUICKLY. ..... IT DOESN'T HELP THAT NEITHER THE CONSTITUTION NOR ANY PLAN BY [PRESIDENT] YELTSIN LISTS ANY SORT OF PROCEDURE TO DETERMINE WHEN A PRESIDENT IS INCAPACITATED....."

TEXT: [BEGIN OPT IN WASHINGTON, THE SENATE'S STRONG REJECTION OF A BILL FORCING STATES TO RECOGNIZE EACH OTHER'S GAY MARRIAGES DRAWS THIS RESPONSE FROM THE MIAMI HERALD.

VOICE: "THIS RUSH TO WORRY ABOUT MARRIAGE LEAVES OPEN THE HUGE QUESTION OF WHAT RECOGNITION SOCIETY SHOULD GIVE TO STRONG, PERMANENT RELATIONSHIPS OF PEOPLE OF THE SAME SEX. SURELY FEW WOULD ARGUE THAT SUCH RELATIONSHIPS AREN'T BETTER BOTH FOR INDIVIDUALS AND FOR SOCIETY ITSELF THAN LIFETIMES OF FLEETING CONTACTS OR LONELINESS. ..... A WISE SOCIETY WOULD LEGALIZE DOMESTIC PARTNERSHIPS, WHETHER BETWEEN GAY PEOPLE OR A WIDOW AND WIDOWER WHO SIMPLY WANT TO LIVE TOGETHER AS COMPANIONS AND LET THE SURVIVOR INHERIT THE OTHER'S ESTATE." [END OPT]

TEXT: AND LASTLY, ON THE SUBJECT OF AN INCREASE IN THE USE OF ILLEGAL DRUGS BY TEENAGERS, THE ORLANDO SENTINEL SAYS IN THE SECOND OF A LENGTHY TWO-PART EDITORIAL ON THE SUBJECT:

VOICE: "THE MAIN BULLY PULPIT [INFLUENTIAL SPEAKERS ROLE] ON THIS ISSUE, THOUGH, SHOULD BE PROVIDED BY THE PRESIDENT. ENTHUSIASTIC PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP WOULD HELP INSPIRE AMERICANS WHO ARE CONCERNED ABOUT DRUGS TO WAGE THEIR INDIVIDUAL BATTLES. ..... MR. CLINTON AND MR. DOLE WOULD DO THE NATION - - AND FLORIDA - - A BIG FAVOR IF THEY WOULD CONCENTRATE ON COMPARING AND CONTRASTING THEIR STRATEGIES TO MAKE PROGRESS IN THE WAR ON DRUGS."

TEXT: THAT CONCLUDES THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF SOME OF MONDAY'S EDITORIALS FROM THE U-S PRESS.
NEB/ANG/GE
16-Sep-96 10:56 AM EDT (1456 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] BOSNIAN SERBS ELECTIONS BY PAM TAYLOR (BANJA LUKA)

INTRO: INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OFFICIALS IN THE SELF-PROCLAIMED SERB REPUBLIC WITHIN BOSNIA ARE CALLING SATURDAY'S FEDERAL ELECTION A SUCCESS, DESPITE THE FACT THAT FEWER THAN EXPECTED CROSSED ETHNIC BOUNDARY LINES TO VOTE, AND DESPITE REPORTS OF WIDESPREAD IRREGULARITIES. BOSNIAN SERB VOTERS FEAR THE IRREGULARITIES ARE DESIGNED TO THWART THEIR DREAM OF ACHIEVING A SEPARATE SERB STATE, AS VOA'S PAMELA TAYLOR REPORTS FROM BANJA LUKA IN THE BOSNIAN SERB REPUBLIC.

TEXT: VOTE COUNTING IS GOING SLOWLY IN REPUBLIKA SRPSKA, AND THE ONLY THING ELECTION OFFICIALS HERE ARE SAYING AT THIS POINT IS THAT IT APPEARS AT LEAST 70 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION VOTED. OFFICIAL RESULTS ARE NOT EXPECTED BEFORE WEDNESDAY.

THE ORGANIZATION IN CHARGE OF THE ELECTION PROCESS -- THE O-S-C-E (ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE) -- SAYS IT HAS NOT YET RECEIVED A FORMAL COMPLAINT FROM THE RULING MUSLIM S-D-A PARTY IN SARAJEVO, ALLEGING ELECTION FRAUD IN REPUBLIKA SRPSKA. BUT A SPOKESMAN FOR THE INTERNATIONAL POLICE TASK FORCE, ALLYN ROBERTS, SAYS THERE HAVE BEEN SIMILAR COMPLAINTS ON ALL SIDES.

WE ALSO HAD THE THE SAME COMPLAINTS FROM PEOPLE ON THE FEDERATION SIDE WHEN THEY CAME TO VOTE -- THEIR NAMES ALSO WERE NOT ON THE LISTS -- SOME PLACES EIGHT TO 10 PERCENT OF PEOPLE WHO WERE TALKING TO U-N CIVIL AFFAIRS AS THEY CAME OUT OF THE VOTING STATIONS. SO SOMETHING WAS NOT QUITE RIGHT ON BOTH SIDES WITH REGARD TO THIS QUESTION.

MR. ROBERTS SAYS THE INTERNATIONAL ELECTION MONITORS AT THIS POINT ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE IRREGULARITIES ARE MORE A RESULT OF INADEQUATE VOTER LIST PREPARATION, RATHER THAN ANY MANIPULATION BY LOCAL POLITICIANS.

THIS MAY NOT, HOWEVER, SATISFY VOTERS IN THE SERB REPUBLIC, MANY OF WHOM BELIEVE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS TRYING TO FORCE THEM TO LIVE AGAIN WITH CROATS AND MUSLIMS, DENYING THEM THEIR OWN STATE.

ONE YOUNG MAN WHO FOUGHT THE MUSLIMS IN WESTERN BOSNIA, GORAN MESIC, SAID HE ALSO COULD NEVER AGAIN LIVE WITH MUSLIMS, EVEN THOUGH SOME OF HIS BEST FRIENDS BEFORE THE WAR WERE MUSLIMS.

MR. MESIC SAID THERE WERE GOOD AND BAD PEOPLE ON ALL SIDES, AMONG CROATS AND MUSLIMS AS WELL. IT WAS A SENTIMENT HEARD OFTEN IN THE SERB ENTITY. MOST PEOPLE SAY THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEIR FORMER NEIGHBORS AND FRIENDS AGAIN, BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AWFUL CRIMES OF THE WAR. BUT THEY MAKE A DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE MUSLIMS AND CROATS THEY KNEW PERSONALLY AND THE MASS OF MUSLIMS IN THE FEDERATION WHOM THEY BELIEVE ARE RADICAL FUNDAMENTALISTS.

ONLY A HANDFUL OF CROATS AND MUSLIMS REMAIN IN BANJA LUKA. ONE WELL-KNOWN MUSLIM IS MUHAREM INSANIC, A MUSIC TEACHER AND CONDUCTOR OF THE CITY'S SYMPHONY ORCHESTRA. INTERVIEWED IN THE MEAT SHOP HE TOOK OVER WHEN HIS BROTHERS FLED THE CITY, MR. INSANIC, WHO IS MARRIED TO A SERB, SAYS HE BELIEVES THERE IS NO REASON SERBS, MUSLIMS AND CROATS CANNOT LIVE TOGETHER AGAIN -- EVEN IN BANJA LUKA.

MR. INSANIC SAYS ALL BOSNIANS HAVE A CHOICE -- TO BE UNITED IN THEIR COMMON POVERTY AND ISOLATION FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD, OR TO RESUME THEIR TIES WITH EACH OTHER -- WHETHER POLITICAL, CULTURAL OR ECONOMIC. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT/PCF/MMK
16-Sep-96 3:51 PM EDT (1951 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] BOSNIA / ELECTION (L) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

INTRO: ELECTION OFFICIALS IN BOSNIA HAVE BEGUN TO ANNOUNCE INITIAL RESULTS FROM SATURDAY'S ELECTION. SO FAR, FEWER THAN TWO PERCENT OF MUNICIPALITIES HAVE REPORTED RESULTS FOR THE FIRST RACE TO BE COUNTED, THAT OF THE THREE-MEMBER PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNTRY. DAVID FOLEY IN SARAJEVO REPORTS IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER A MUSLIM OR SERB WILL WIN THE POST OF CHAIRMAN OF THE PRESIDENCY COUNCIL. THE ELECTIONS WERE ORGANIZED BY THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE (OSCE).

TEXT: WITH ONLY A SMALL FRACTION OF THE 151 VOTE COUNTING CENTERS REPORTING RESULTS, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY WINNERS.

JEFF FISCHER, THE HEAD OF ELECTIONS FOR THE ELECTION ORGANIZERS, THE O-S-C-E, SAYS HE FEELS GENERALLY POSITIVE ABOUT THE COUNTING PROCESS SO FAR.

I THINK I CAN CHARACTERIZE THE PROCESS AS BEING A SLOW ONE, AT LEAST AT THE OUTSET. I BELIEVE WE WILL FIND THAT THE COUNTING COMMITTEES EXPERIENCE A LEARNING CURVE AND WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE PROCESS AS THEY GO THROUGH THE EXPERIENCE.

THE VOTES COUNTED SO FAR ARE FOR THE THREE MEMBER PRESIDENCY OF BOSNIA. THERE WILL BE ONE MUSLIM, ONE CROAT, AND ONE SERB MEMBER OF THE PRESIDENCY.

NO SURPRISES ARE EXPECTED ABOUT WHO WILL REPRESENT EACH ETHNIC GROUP, BUT WHICHEVER CANDIDATE GETS THE MOST VOTES WILL BECOME "THE CHAIRMAN" OF THE PRESIDENCY COUNCIL. WHILE THIS TITLE IS ONLY SYMBOLIC, IT IS A POTENT SYMBOL.

BECAUSE THERE ARE MORE MUSLIM VOTERS THAN EITHER SERBS OR CROATS, THE CURRENT BOSNIAN PRESIDENT, ALIA IZETBEGOVIC, SHOULD EASILY WIN, EXCEPT HE FACED STRONG OPPOSITION FROM HARIS SILAJDZIC, A MULSIM AND THE FORMER BOSNIAN PRIME MINISTER.

OBSERVERS SAY MR. SILAJDZIC MAY TAKE ENOUGH MUSLIM VOTES FROM MR. IZETBEGOVIC FOR THE SERB CANDIDATE, MOMCILO KRAJISNIK, TO WIN THE CHAIRMANSHIP. NEITHER THE SERB NOR CROAT CANDIDATES ARE EXPECTED TO LOSE MANY VOTES TO THEIR OPPOSITION.

MR. SILAJDZIC SHOULD WIN MORE SUPPORT IN URBAN AREAS, AND AMONG MORE EDUCATED VOTERS WHO OFTEN SUPPORT BOTH HIS CALLS FOR A MULTI-ETHNIC BOSNIA AND HIS WARNINGS AGAINST THE GROWING ISLAMIC TONE OF MR. IZETBEGOVIC'S RULING S-D-A PARTY.

MR. KRAJISNIK IS THE LEADER OF THE BOSNIAN SERB PARLIAMENT, AND, AFTER FORMER PRESIDENT RADOVAN KARADZIC, IS GENERALLY HELD TO BE THE MOST POWERFUL MAN IN THE BOSNIAN SERB REPUBLIC. IF HE WINS THE CHAIRMANSHIP IT MAY HELP CONVINCE THE SERBS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE NEW JOINT POWER SHARING INSTITUTIONS WITH THE MUSLIMS AND CROATS. HOWEVER, CARL BILDT, THE SENIOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIATOR IN BOSNIA, IS WORRIED THAT SUCH AN OUTCOME MAY PROVE TO BE MORE OF A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR MUSLIMS, THAN IT IS A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR SERBS.

ELECTION ORGANIZERS SAY THEY HOPE TO HAVE RESULTS FROM ALL COUNTING CENTERS FOR THIS FIRST OF FOUR SEPARATE ELECTIONS BY LATER ON MONDAY EVENING. (SIGNED)
NEB/DF/JWH/CF
16-Sep-96 10:59 AM EDT (1459 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] BOSNIA / REFUGEE VOTE (L-O) BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (SARAJEVO)

INTRO: AS THE VOTE COUNTING CONTINUES IN BOSNIA, U-N OFFICIALS HAVE ISSUED REVISED FIGURES FOR THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES WHO CROSSED THE INTER-ENTITY BOUNDARY LINE TO CAST BALLOTS IN THEIR FORMER HOME-TOWNS AND VILLAGES. THE FIGURES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, STRENGTHENING THE IMPRESSION AMONG MANY ANALYSTS THE PROSPECTS FOR A RE-UNIFIED BOSNIA REMAIN BLEAK. V-O-A'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS REPORTS FROM SARAJEVO.

TEXT: BEFORE SATURDAY'S VOTE, U-N, O-S-C-E, AND OTHER OFFICIALS ESTIMATED AS MANY AS 200-THOUSAND BOSNIAN REFUGEES, MOSTLY MUSLIMS, MIGHT CROSS INTO THE BOSNIAN-SERB REPUBLIC ON POLLING DAY. BUT, ACCORDING TO A FINAL ESTIMATE FROM THE U-N POLICE TASK FORCE, FEWER THAN 14-THOUSAND MADE THE JOURNEY. ONLY ABOUT 12-HUNDRED SERBS CROSSED INTO THE MUSLIM-CROAT FEDERATION.

SPOKESMAN FOR THE U-N REFUGEE AGENCY, KRIS JANOWSKI, SAID MORE PEOPLE CROSSED THE BOUNDARY ON ELECTION DAY THAN AT ANY OTHER TIME SINCE THE WAR ERUPTED. BUT HE LEFT NO DOUBT ABOUT U-N-H-C-R'S DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THE FIGURES.

WITH ONLY 13-AND-ONE-HALF THOUSAND CROSSING, IT IS REALLY QUITE BAD, I WOULD SAY, AND THE REASON WAS MOSTLY FEAR, OR LACK OF INTEREST IN THE POLITICS IN THE OTHER ENTITY.

OFFICIALS SAY A VARIETY OF FACTORS CONTRIBUTED TO THE LOW NUMBER OF REFUGEES WHO CROSSED BOSNIA'S DIVIDING LINE. THEY SAY THE POSTPONEMENT OF THE MUNICIPAL COMPONENT OF THE ELECTIONS WAS ONE KEY REASON.

ANOTHER WAS THE FACT MUSLIMS CROSSING INTO SERB TERRITORY WERE EXPECTED TO CAST BALLOTS FOR THE SERB ASSEMBLY AND PRESIDENCY. WHICH MEANT, IN EFFECT, VOTING FOR SOME OF THE SAME PEOPLE WHO EXPELLED THEM FROM THEIR HOMES AND WHO REMAIN STAUNCHLY OPPOSED TO THE RE-UNIFICATION OF THE COUNTRY.

THE BOSNIAN-GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIVE ON THE PROVISIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION, KASIM BEGIC, ALSO OBJECTED TO PROCEDURES THAT OBLIGED MUSLIMS WHO CROSSED THE BOUNDARY TO TRAVEL IN ORGANIZED BUS CONVOYS.

U-N-H-C-R'S KRIS JANOWSKI SAID HIS AGENCY DOUBTS THE ELECTIONS WILL HELP REVERSE ETHNIC CLEANSING IN BOSNIA.

AND WE EXPRESSED THIS DOUBT A FEW WEEKS AGO IN A STATEMENT SAYING BASICALLY THE WAY THINGS WERE GOING, IT LOOKED LIKE NATIONALISTIC LEADERS WERE GOING TO BE ELECTED, AND ESSENTIALLY PURSUE THE POLICY WHICH THEY HAD PURSUED SO FAR. SAYING QUITE OPENLY IN PUBLIC STATEMENTS THAT THEY WERE NOT INTERESTED IN REVERSING ETHNIC CLEANSING. AND UNLESS MUCH MORE PRESSURE IS PUT ON THESE LEADERS, I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE.

THE SPOKESMAN FOR THE HIGH REPRESENTATIVE'S OFFICE IN SARAJEVO, MICHAEL MCCLAY, SAID HE SHARES THAT GRIM ASSESSMENT. HE SAID THE ELECTIONS ARE ONLY ONE PART OF THE DAYTON PLAN AIMED AT CONSOLIDATING BOSNIA'S PEACE AND RE-UNITING THE COUNTRY.

THE REALITY NOW IS PARTITION. THE QUESTION IS HOW WE CAN ERODE THAT AND SEW THIS COUNTRY TOGETHER AGAIN. IT IS NOT THAT THE ELECTIONS THEMSELVES ARE ACHIEVING PARTITION. THE ELECTIONS ARE THE WAY OF BEGINNING THE END OF THE PARTITION.

AS SOON AS THE FINAL VOTE TALLIES ARE ANNOUNCED, BOSNIA'S NEWLY ELECTED LEADERS WILL BE ASKED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO FORGE NEW COMMON INSTITUTIONS. BUT VIRTUALLY ALL ANALYSTS IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA ACKNOWLEDGE THAT PROCESS WILL BE FRAUGHT WITH POTENTIAL PIT-FALLS, AND FEW ARE WILLING TO PREDICT THE OUTCOME. (SIGNED) NEB/DBR/JWH/BD/RAE
16-Sep-96 11:26 AM EDT (1526 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] BOSNIA / SARAJEVO (L) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

INTRO: THE SENIOR INDEPENDENT ELECTION MONITOR IN BOSNIA SAYS THAT WHILE THERE WERE NO MAJOR IRREGULARITIES ON POLLING DAY, HE WILL NOT PRONOUNCE THE ELECTIONS "FREE AND FAIR." THE MONITOR SAYS FINAL CERTIFICATION OF ELECTION RESULTS SHOULD BE WITHHELD UNTIL THE BOSNIAN SERBS PROMISE, IN WRITING, TO END THEIR DRIVE TOWARD SECESSION. MEANWHILE, DAVID FOLEY REPORTS FROM SARAJEVO THE SLOW VOTE-COUNTING MEANS ELECTION RESULTS IN THE CONTEST FOR THE THREE MEMBER PRESIDENCY WILL NOT BE COMPLETED UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY.

TEXT: EDWARD VAN THIJN, THE COORDINATOR FOR THE OFFICIAL INTERNATIONAL ELECTION MONITORING EFFORT IN BOSNIA, HAS EARNED HIS REPUTATION FOR INDEPENDENCE DURING HIS TIME IN BOSNIA. HE WAS THE FIRST TO CALL ATTENTION TO THE WIDESPREAD VOTER REGISTRATION FRAUD BY THE BOSNIAN SERBS AND SERBIA. THAT FRAUD LED TO THE CANCELLING OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS THAT SHOULD HAVE TAKEN PLACE ON SATURDAY. IT IS HIS JOB TO ASSESS WHETHER SATURDAY'S (OVERALL) POLLING WAS FREE AND FAIR, AND MANY INTERNATIONAL OFFICIALS WERE HOLDING THEIR BREATH (ANXIOUS) AS THEY WAITED FOR HIS REPORT.

IN THE END, MR. VAN THIJN ISSUED A GENERALLY POSITIVE PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT. BUT WHILE HE SAYS THAT THERE WERE NO MAJOR IRREGULARITIES ON ELECTION DAY, HE WILL NOT SAY THE ELECTIONS, WHICH HE CALLS CONFLICT RESOLUTION ELECTIONS, WERE FREE AND FAIR.

SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF THE CLIMATE OF THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD MAY POINT TOWARD DISINTEGRATION AND AN UNSATISFACTORY RESOLUTION OF THE CONFLICT.

MR. VAN THIJN CAST DOUBT ON VERBAL PROMISES BY BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS THAT THEY WILL END THIER SECESSIONIST ACTIVITIES AND COOPERATE FULLY WITH POWER SHARING INSTITUTIONS TO BE SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE ELECTIONS. HE ISSUED A CLEAR CALL TO THE ELECTION ORGANIZERS, THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE, TO WITHHOLD FINAL CERTIFICATION OF THE RESULTS UNTIL SERB PROMISES WERE PUT IN WRITING.

MY RECOMMENDATION IS THAT THOSE WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR CERTIFICATION SHOULDN'T ACCEPT VERBAL ANNOUNCEMENT. THEY SHOULD ASK FOR A WRITTEN STATEMENT IN WHICH THE CHANGE OF THE CONSTITUTION AND A CHANGE OF THE PARTY PROGRAM IS ANNOUNCED.

THE HEAD OF THE O-S-C-E MISSION IN BOSNIA, AMBASSADOR ROBERT FROWICK SAYS THAT WHILE HE HAS NOT HAD TIME TO STUDY MR. VAN THIJN'S PROPOSAL'S IN DETAIL, HE THINKS A DEMAND FOR WRITTEN PROMISES, AS HE PUT IT, "SEEMS LIKE A RATHER GOOD IDEA." (SIGNED)
NEB/DF/MMK
16-Sep-96 3:37 PM EDT (1937 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] BOSNIA CERTIFICATION (S) BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (SARAJEVO)

INTRO: THE MAN CHARGED WITH CERTIFYING THE BOSNIAN ELECTIONS HAS GIVEN A CAUTIOUS PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF SATURDAY'S VOTE. EDUARD VAN THUYN, A FORMER DUTCH INTERIOR MINISTER, TOLD REPORTERS IN SARAJEVO SATURDAY'S ELECTIONS WERE FAR FROM PERFECT, BUT DID PROVIDE A CAUTIOUS FIRST STEP TOWARD DEMOCRACY IN THE COUNTRY. FROM THE BOSNIAN CAPITAL, VOA'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS REPORTS.

TEXT: MR. VAN THUYN DID NOT EVEN ATTEMPT TO ASSESS WHETHER THE ELECTIONS WERE FREE AND FAIR. THAT WAS NOT POSSIBLE IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES, HE SAID, ADDING THAT THE VOTING WAS FIRST AND FOREMOST AN INSTRUMENT OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION.

I BELIEVE THAT THESE ELECTIONS ARE, AT BEST, A FIRST STEP OUT OF THE PERIOD OF DEEP AND VIOLENT CONFLICT TOWARDS THE ASPIRATION OF A DEMOCRATIC FUTURE FOR BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA.

MR. VAN THUYN MADE TWO SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS. HE SAID BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS SHOULD BE ASKED FOR WRITTEN ASSURANCES THAT THEY WILL NOT PURSUE THEIR SECESSIONIST AMBITIONS. HE ALSO SAID THE PROCESS OF REGISTERING VOTERS FOR THE DELAYED MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS SHOULD BE REPEATED, TO CORRECT WIDESPREAD ABUSE AND IRREGULARITIES.

MR. VAN THUYN SAID THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST MAINTAIN A FIRM COMMITMENT TO THE PEACE PROCESS HERE TO HELP BOSNIA FACE WHAT HE CALLED THE DIFFICULT TIMES AND DECISIONS THAT STILL LIE AHEAD. (SIGNED)
NEB/DBR/PCF/LWM
16-Sep-96 3:36 PM EDT (1936 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] PERRY / TURKEY (L ONLY) BY EDWARD DE MARCO (ISTANBUL)

INTRO: U-S DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM PERRY STOPPED BRIEFLY IN TURKEY MONDAY DURING A REGIONAL TOUR DESIGNED TO WIN SUPPORT FOR THE TOUGH U-S STANCE AGAINST IRAQ. EDWARD DE MARCO REPORTS ON THE VISIT TO THE NATO ALLY THAT BORDERS IRAQ.

TEXT: THE UNITED STATES CALLED SECRETARY PERRY'S TALKS WITH TURKISH LEADERS IN ANKARA A "PRODUCTIVE EXCHANGE OF VIEWS" ON THE IRAQI CRISIS. BUT THERE WAS NO INDICATION THAT MR. PERRY PERSUADED TURKEY TO ALLOW THE UNITED STATES TO STAGE POSSIBLE AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQ FROM ITS SOIL. TURKEY DOES ALLOW U-S WARPLANES TO USE ITS INCIRLIK AIR BASE TO PATROL THE NO-FLY ZONE OVER NORTHERN IRAQ.

THE DEFENSE SECRETARY MET WITH TURKISH PRESIDENT SULEYMAN DEMIREL, FOREIGN MINISTER TANSU CILLER, AND TOP MILITARY OFFICIALS AFTER ARRIVNG FROM BAHRAIN. MR. PERRY HAD ASKED TO MEET WITH TURKISH PRIME MINISTER NECMETTIN ERBAKAN, BUT MR. ERBAKAN WAS OUT OF ANKARA AND RETURNED JUST AS MR. PERRY DEPARTED.

A MEETING WITH MR. PERRY WOULD HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST-LEVEL U-S CONTACT TO DATE WITH TURKEY'S NEW ISLAMIST LEADER, AND MR. ERBAKAN'S ABSENCE FROM TODAY'S TALKS MAY FUEL THE PERCEPTION THAT HE IS DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM THE U-S-IRAQI STANDOFF. PRIME MINISTER ERBAKAN IS SEEKING TO IMPROVE TIES WITH IRAQ. MEANWHILE, SECRETARY PERRY PRAISED TURKEY FOR HELPING EVACUATE 500 KURDS WHO WORKED FOR U-S AID GROUPS IN NORTHERN IRAQ BUT FLED IN FEAR OF REPRISALS BY SADDAM HUSSEIN'S ARMY. THE WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES -- ABOUT TWO-THOUSAND PEOPLE IN ALL -- WILL BE FLOWN TO GUAM FOR EVENTUAL RESETTLEMENT IN THE UNITED STATES. (SIGNED)
NEB/EDM/JWH/MMK
16-Sep-96 11:13 AM EDT (1513 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] YUGOSLAVIA'S SAGGING ECONOMY BY BARRY WOOD (BELGRADE)

INTRO: LIVING STANDARDS IN SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO CONTINUE TO DECLINE, EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE PUNISHING ECONOMIC SANCTIONS LEVIED AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA FOR ITS ROLE IN THE WAR IN BOSNIA HAVE BEEN LIFTED. V-O-A'S BARRY WOOD REPORTS FROM AN APPARENTLY DISPIRITED AND CYNICAL YUGOSLAV CAPITAL.

TEXT: CITIZENS OF BELGRADE REMAIN DEFIANT TO A WESTERN WORLD THEY REGARD AS HOSTILE TO THEM. BUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE ECONOMY, YUGOSLAVS ARE INCREASINGLY ASKING WHAT HAVE THEY OBTAINED FROM THEIR SOLIDARITY IN ENDURING FOUR YEARS OF SANCTIONS DURING WHICH LIVING STANDARDS FELL TO 40 PERCENT BELOW WHAT THEY WERE IN 1991.

AFTER THE BREAKUP OF THE OLD YUGOSLAVIA, SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO EXPERIENCED IN 1993 THE WORST HYPER-INFLATION SEEN ANYWHERE SINCE THE 1920S. PRICES WERE SO OUT OF CONTROL THAT THEY CHANGED DAILY, AND THE ZEROS WERE ADDED TO NEW BANKNOTES WITH ASTONISHING REGULARITY. IN 1994, AN ASTUTE ECONOMIST WHO HAD RETIRED FROM THE WORLD BANK IN WASHINGTON CAME BACK TO BELGRADE AND NOT ONLY STOPPED THE HYPER-INFLATION, BUT CREATED MONETARY STABILITY IN THE FACE OF THE OUTSIDE SANCTIONS.

DRAGOSLAV AVRAMOVIC IS NOW 78. HIS SUPER DINAR STILL CIRCULATES. BUT HE RAN AFOUL OF SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODON MILOSEVIC BACK IN MAY AND WAS DISMISSED FROM HIS JOB AS HEAD OF THE CENTRAL BANK. MR. AVRAMOVIC HAD COUNSELED THAT WHEN SANCTIONS WERE BEING LIFTED LAST NOVEMBER YUGOSLAVIA NEEDED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO PRIVATIZE AND OPEN ITS CLOSED ECONOMY TO FOREIGN INVESTMENT. THE FIRST STEP, HE SAID, WAS ACCEPTANCE OF WESTERN CONDITIONS FOR REJOINING INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS SO THAT NEEDED FOREIGN CAPITAL COULD BE ATTRACTED.

AT THE END HE MADE A MISTAKE. YOU SEE, IF HE WANTED TO IMPLEMENT HIS POLICY, WHICH WAS AND STILL IS VERY GOOD, HE COULDN'T DO THIS WITH THE PEOPLE HE APPROACHED. IT SEEMS HE WANTED TO DO THIS WITH THE OPPOSITION, BUT YOU SEE THE OPPOSITION IS WEAK, SO HE WAS FIRED BY THE RULING PARTY. YOU SEE IF HE WANTED TO IMPLEMENT HIS PROGRAM HE HAD TO FIND A COMPROMISE WITH THE RULING PARTY.

SUCH IS THE ATMOSPHERE IN BELGRADE THAT THE EDUCATED OLD MAN WALKS QUICKLY AWAY, RATHER THAN GIVE HIS NAME. // END OPT //

INFLATION CURRENTLY IS ABOUT 100 PERCENT ANNUALLY. THERE ARE EXPECTATIONS OF A CURRENCY DEVALUATION AFTER NOVEMBER ELECTIONS. THE PROMISED "PEACE DIVIDEND" FROM THE LIFTING OF SANCTIONS HAS NOT ARRIVED. AT THE GOVERNMENT'S INFORMATION MINISTRY ON WHAT IS STILL CALLED LENIN BOULEVARD, VLADIMIR ILICH LAMENTS THE ABSENCE OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT, AND ASSERTS THAT IF THERE HAD BEEN BIG INVESTMENTS IN THE OLD YUGOSLAVIA THERE WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN A WAR.

BECAUSE THE WORLD WOULD HAVE PREVENTED US FROM ANY KIND OF CONFLICT. NOT BECAUSE THEY LOVE OR LIKE US -- BUT TO SAVE THEIR MONEY. DON'T YOU THINK SWITZERLAND HAS A VERY GOOD DESTINY BECAUSE IT HAS A LOT OF MONEY? EVEN IN THE NAZI TIME, IT WAS SAVED FROM THE WAR, RIGHT? NOBODY ATTACKED THEM.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUND IN YUGOSLAVIA, BUT THEY DO NOT DISGUISE THE GRIM REALITY OF AN ECONOMY THAT IS STILL STATE-RUN AND A CRUMBLING INFRASTRUCTURE -- BUSES THAT DON'T WORK, TRAMS THAT SWAY DANGEROUSLY BECAUSE THE TRACKS HAVE NOT BEEN REPAIRED, WAGES THAT ARE PAID LATE AND AVERAGE ONLY 150 DOLLARS PER MONTH, A HUGE BACKLOG FOR GETTING TELEPHONES, AND LITTLE PROMISE OF EARLY IMPROVEMENT. (SIGNED)
NEB/BDW/PCF/MMK
16-Sep-96 3:16 PM EDT (1916 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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