Turkish Daily News, 96-06-22

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From: Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs <http://www.mfa.gov.tr>

TURKISH DAILY NEWS
22 June 1996

CONTENTS

[01] Ciller and Erbakan near government deal

[02] Jordan speaks up for Turkey, undermines Syrian accusations

[03] Turkey's presence in Florence is considered 'forward step'

[04] OECD says Turkey needs strategy to avert instability

[05] Turkish submarines in Malaysian waters

[01] Ciller and Erbakan near government deal

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Defying warnings from the country's divided political mainstream and risking a growing split in her own party, True Path Party (DYP) leader Tansu Ciller on Friday moved closer to a government partnership with the country's ascendant Islamists, but postponed the deal to Tuesday.

After two-hours of talks with pro-Iislamic Welfare Party (RP) leader Necmettin Erbakan, Ciller said she would make a final offer to Democratic Left Party (DSP) chief Bulent Ecevit for an alternative coalition before nailing the deal with the Islamists.Ecevit indicated earlier Monday that he was not warm to the proposal.

Ciller broke a center-right alliance with the Motherland Party (ANAP) of outgoing prime minister Mesut Yilmaz last month over his support to corruption probes against her.

Speaking after the DYP leader, Erbakan spoke confidently of a "RP-led government with this party or the other," saying it was inevitable after the mainstream rivals' inability to come together. He said Ciller's delay in making up her mind on his offer --made a week ago-- was normal. Erbakan also played down a spate of defections from the DYP, saying the projected coalition was assured of a confidence vote.

Although the leaders reserved the announcement of the accord to next week, sources close to both said the sides had by and large agreed on the terms of the partnership and had signed a 10-point protocol after chief aides met late Thursday.

Under the deal, the RP reportedlygot 18 of the 32 cabinet slots, including key interior, defense and justice portfolios as well as nine state ministries. The DYP reportedly held on to the foreign ministry although Emre Gonensay, currently holding the post, is expected to be replaced since he publicly came against a partnership with the RP on Thursday and said he would vote against it even if it causes his expulsion.

The RP-DYP accord opened the door to power for the Islamists just six months after Ciller and Yilmaz sheathed swords to form the ill-starred coalition to block their path although they emerged winners from the Dec. 24 elections, bagging 158 of the 550 Parliament seats.

But despite Erbakan's later efforts to modify RP's radical economic program and its anti-West stance in order to attract partners, a political conservatism shaped by 72 years of secularism portends trouble for the unconventional partnership.

The deal has already cost both leaders in terms of credibility. Ciller's approach to Erbakan contradicts her earlier vows not to do any business with the "fundamentalists" who, she said was a threat for Turkey and the world.

Erbakan, meanwhile, went back on his word when he persuaded his deputies to vote against a probe motion against Ciller over a slush funds scandal despite the RP's much-advertized stance against corruption.

Beside foreign minister Gonensay and diehard Ciller foes sworn to oppose the deal, six DYP deputies have already resigned, five of them defecting to ANAP. The exodus, which cut the DYP's Parliamentary strength to 129, is predicted to continue in the coming days to further sap the majority of the projected partnership although a seven-strong Grand Unity Party is expected to back it.

The RP-DYP dialogue followed earlier proposals by Ciller for alternative government formulas bringing together all or some of the center-right and left parties making up the political mainstream.

But both the Democratic Left Party (DSP) led by Bulent Ecevit --who backed the collapsed coalition-- and the rival leftist Republican People's Party of Deniz Baykal, Ciller's former government partner, have shunned the calls, saying DYP and ANAP had to credibly make up first.

[02] Jordan speaks up for Turkey, undermines Syrian accusations

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- The Arab summit to convene in Cairo today is turning into a diplomatic battleground between Syria, a participant in this gathering, and Turkey, which although not a participant will be a subject of discussion because of Arab anger over a military accord it signed with Israel.

But it appears that Syria may not have its way fully given that Jordan, a key player in the Middle East, also has complaints against Damascus which tally with Ankara's complaints.

There are also indications that other Arab countries are now pondering the wisdom of alienating a predominantly Sunni Muslim country like Turkey at a time of changing balances in the Middle East.

Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq al-Shara, speaking before today's summit of the Arab League in Cairo, accused Turkey on Friday of deliberately escalating the tension between the two countries.

Pointing out that while the situation in Israel after the election of arch-conservative Benjamin Netanyahu would be the main topic at the summit, al-Shara said "other issues would also be on the agenda."

"In the forefront of these come the Turkish troop concentrations on the Turkish border and the deliberate tension created by the Turkish authorities in northern Syria," he said while addressing reporters in Cairo.

Turkey has officially denied that there is such a troop buildup on its border with Syria and officials in Ankara have said that Damascus is the one that has been "deliberately" increasing the tension over the past weeks.

Ankara accuses Syria of supporting the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is waging a separatist war in Turkey and whose leader is known, despite Syrian denials, to live in Damascus.

"Syria wants the best possible relations with Turkey, it doesn't want this tension and this escalation and we believe this tension and escalation to be artificial," al-Shara said according to Reuters.

"We are working so that Turkey appreciates that Syrian-Turkish relations are important for all sides. Other agreements have been made with a state which still occupies Arab land and I don't think that is good for Arab-Turkish relations... It turns the area into a focus of tension," al-Shara added.

Diplomats in Ankara are bracing themselves for the possibility of a strong statement from today's Arab summit against Turkey on its recently concluded military accord with Israel and on the issue of the waters of the Euphrates.

Turkish Foreign Minister Emre Gonensay was reported earlier this week as sending letters to the Arab League secretary general and individual Arab countries, excepting Syria, asking them to refrain from an anti-Turkish statement at their weekend summit.

He repeated on Thursday that Turkey had asked Arab countries not to take Syria's side in its water dispute with Turkey.

"They (the Arab countries) are above all the ones who should feel concerned if they publish a declaration against Turkey at the summit," Gonensay told reporters after a ministry meeting.

A senior unnamed Jordanian official was quoted by the Anatolia news agency, reporting on Friday from Cairo, as saying that Turkey was justified in its complaint against Syria concerning the PKK.

Similar views were echoed by unnamed Jordanian officials quoted by Reuters who said that instead of attacking the Israeli-Turkish accord, Jordan wanted the summit's final statement to condemn "terrorism" instead.

This was taken as a reference to charges by Amman that Syria has helped saboteurs infiltrate Jordan.

"We have no problem with the (Turkish-Israeli) accord. It is a Syrian issue which they have exaggerated," a Jordanian official was quoted as saying in this context.

"Whatever we say and address to Turkey will be from a positive standpoint," Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa was quoted by Reuters as saying after the Arab League's ministerial meeting on Friday.

"We are very concerned that our relations with Turkey should not only be very good relations but strategic relations."

"Arab states have no interest in creating an atmosphere of enmity with a large Sunni Muslim country on their borders," Reuters quoted another senior summit delegate as saying.

[03] Turkey's presence in Florence is considered 'forward step'

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Turkey's participation on the sidelines of the European Union's Florence Summit today, despite a flurry of frantic last minute diplomatic activity by Athens to block such an eventuality, is being taken by Turkish officials as a 'forward step' in the direction of Ankara's eventual full integration into Europe.

Responding to outgoing EU term president Italy's invitation, Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz will be flying to Florence today to attend a working dinner to include the Union's Troika plus remaining members.

The Troika includes the EU's former term president Spain, current president Italy and next president Ireland.

Turkish Foreign Minister Emre Gonensay will be accompanying Prime Minister Yilmaz in Florence.

Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis wrote a letter to term president Italy earlier this week demanding that the invitation extended to Turkey be withdrawn but failed to have this demand honored.

Diplomats expect a new bout of recrimination in Athens after the Florence summit, as has been the case in the previous Madrid and Cannes summits, over what is expected to be seen as "Greece having been deserted by its partners once again over Turkey."

Athens has angered its EU allies over its determination to block credits earmarked to Turkey within the context of the customs union Ankara concluded with the Union.

This anger at Greece mounted when Athens decided to also block aid to Mediterranean countries because this also included aid to Turkey.

Diplomats say that despite official EU statements of support for Greece as an EU member, these are merely "pro-forma" and patience has in fact come close to drying up concerning the negative stance Athens has taken, not just on Turkey, but on a host of political issues of close concern to the EU.

In his talks with EU leaders today, expected to include French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Yilmaz is expected to push for the customs union accord Turkey signed to be honored fully by the European side.

This will mean, in effect, that Ankara will be asking for means to be found to overcome Greece's attempts at trying to block Turkey in this respect at every stage.

It is significant in this respect that Turkish President Suleyman Demirel had a phone conversation with President Chirac on Friday.

[04] OECD says Turkey needs strategy to avert instability

ANKARA- Turkey will face the threat of economic instability if it fails to develop a viable medium-term economic strategy, the OECD said on Thursday.

"Failure to establish a credible medium-term economic strategy and to restore fiscal stability could trigger a deterioration in confidence and economic instability," the OECD said in its latest economic outlook report.

Growth in Turkey's GDP is expected to slow in 1996 after a sharp rebound last year, in response to an assumed tightening of macro-economic policy, the report said.

It forecast GDP growth will ease to some 4.5 percent in 1996 from 7.3 percent a year earlier, based on an assumed restriction of the PSBR to eight to nine percent of GDP this year.

Fiscal tightening will help rein in inflation to around 70 percent in 1996 and 60 percent the following year compared with 81.6 percent in 1995, the report said.

This scenario would be consistent with a modest pickup in growth to around five percent growth in 1997 and a current account deficit of around two to three percent of GDP, the OECD said.

But it said the risks and uncertainties surrounding these projections are large. Political instability, heightened by the resignation of Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz earlier this month, has hindered economic reform, according to economists. "Some limited progress has been made in restructuring large loss-making state economic enterprises, and privatization, albeit making progress, has remained plagued by delays," the OECD said.

Further, legislation to reform the tax and pension systems has yet to be passed by parliament and tax revenue will be hit by the abolition of the Mass Housing Fund and other levies previously charged on imports, it said.

Further progress on fiscal consolidation and structural reform requires a greater degree of social cohesion and political resolve, the report said.

[05] Turkish submarines in Malaysian waters

ANKARA- Defense Minister Oltan Sungurlu left Turkey on Thursday to pay an official visit to Malaysia, the Anatolia news agency reported.

Sungurlu informed the press at Esenboga Airport before leaving Turkey that Malaysia was going to buy two made-in-Turkey submarines. He pointed out that Turkey was one of the three countries which sold arms to Malaysia. "Our aim is to improve the defense cooperation between the two countries," he said, noting that Turkish companies had investments in Malaysia and Indonesia.

"These two countries (Malaysia and Indonesia) are among those countries which purchase the greatest amount of arms. Turkey wants to increase its share in this market," he said, pointing out that the defense industry had improved greatly in these two countries in recent years and that they had become a major arms market.

Sungurlu will be staying in Malaysia for three days.

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