Turkish Daily News, 96-06-08

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From: Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs <http://www.mfa.gov.tr>

TURKISH DAILY NEWS
8 June 1996

CONTENTS

[01] Coalition puzzle no closer to solution

[02] US State Department strongly opposes Congress on aid to Turkey

[03] Arafat may miss Istanbul "summit"; Macedonia's name causes a fuss

[01] Coalition puzzle no closer to solution

ANKARA- The "government puzzle" tops Turkey's agenda midyear as it did on New Year's Eve. Once again, the effort to solve the puzzle begins by tackling first those proposals which seem to be the most farfetched of those available. The Welfare Party (RP), which has won more seats in Parliament than any other party, has been denied access to the government due to its "Islamist" views. That leaves the "minority governments" formula.

The True Path Party (DYP)-Motherland Party (ANAP) minority government formula has worn itself out in the past six months. Now another type of minority government, one even more out of the ordinary than the DYP-ANAP government, is being put on the agenda. That would be a minority government led by Democratic Left Party (DSP) leader Bulent Ecevit.

Ecevit, whose DSP has 75 seats in the 550-seat Parliament, has bolstered this expectation by saying his views concur fully with those of the president, and that minority governments were more beneficial than single-party governments from the standpoint of democratic participation.

The leader of another leftist party represented in the Parliament, the Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal, has also bolstered that expectation by saying that he does not favor a DYP-ANAP-CHP-DSP coalition, that is, the only majority government formula which does not include the RP.

When he emerged from his meeting with President Demirel, RP leader Erbakan seemed unhappy, and he publicly complained about Demirel's failure to ask him immediately to form the new government. The way Erbakan looked and talked is considered as being yet another sign indicating that the possibility of a DSP minority government is seriously being considered. Another sign of this is the fact that Demirel's meeting with DYP leader Tansu Ciller was very brief. Also, it was quickly announced that the four-party government formula she proposed would not be accepted by Ecevit or Yilmaz.

Who is going to form a government in partnership with which party? Here are the replies given to that question on the first day of the "second government crisis":

1- A DSP minority government: According to one argument, Bulent Ecevit would be the best prime minister to ensure that the wheels of the state do not come to a halt and the government crisis does not turn into a state crisis, considering Turkey's heavy agenda especially on matters related to external security.

Those who favor that solution say that Ecevit can be given seven or eight months at the end of which another early general election could be held. Ecevit would be expected to use that period as a prime minister whose functions would be limited to staging a census, drafting a new electoral bill, engineering the changes which must be made in the country's laws to make them compatible with the recently-amended Constitution, and conducting the foreign relations in a highly serious and responsible manner.

Also, Ecevit has always insisted that the proposed "Economic and Social Council" must be formed and it must actually operate. It is being claimed that the existence of such a council would give a DSP minority government a chance to overcome the disadvantage of not having an adequately broad popular base. Those who favor this formula recall that in 1978 Ecevit, then prime minister, had worked out a "social conciliation" model with the country's two biggest labor confederations, Turk-Is and DISK, and that this model may now shed light on the work on the proposed council.

Ecevit would have several disadvantages as the head of a minority government supported by ANAP, CHP, and some DYP deputies. For one thing, the RP, which commands a 158-member parliamentary majority, may block the government's path in Parliament. Despite its disadvantages, this formula, the most farfetched and the hardest to implement of all, has been put on the agenda because of the worry that the other party leaders may cause a state crisis with the way they bicker among themselves in a way lacking in seriousness when dealing with state affairs which require a sense of responsibility.

2- An ANAP government to be supported by DSP deserters: This too involves a quite out of the ordinary practice. ANAP leader Mesut Yilmaz may try to form a minority government by recruiting 30 deputies from the DYP. The DSP too may lend support for Yilmaz's government model. And the CHP too can be admitted into the government by giving it a few ministerial portfolios.

With such a government model, which Yilmaz may also use with the aim of "unifying the center-right," he may soon stage an early election. ANAP circles believe they would benefit from an election taking place as soon as possible when the popularity of their rival, DYP leader Tansu Ciller, is still at an ebb. There are reports to the effect that Yilmaz intends to insist on that model with the conviction that "in the next general election our rival will be the DYP rather than the RP. At this stage entering into an election struggle with the RP would not yield any result before it becomes apparent which is the bigger center-right party, the DYP or ANAP."

3- An RP-DYP government: While the above-mentioned extraordinary formulas seem to have priority, an RP-DYP government would be different from these in that it would be a majority government. That would be an election government. That government model would enable DYP leader Tansu Ciller to avoid being investigated regarding corruption charges. DYP circles seem to prefer this model to holding the election under a Yilmaz-led government. This formula would have a weak spot. It would draw objections from the DYP's secular- liberal wing, as well as the dissidents in the party who cannot expect Ciller to put them on the candidate lists in the next general election. In fact, a DYP-RP coalition may not even win a vote of confidence if the DYP dissidents voted against it, risking disciplinary action.

4- A national consensus government: If the parties fail to reach an agreement between them for any of these combinations, the answer may be a national unity government with the participation of all of them, leaving the party leaders themselves out. That formula is initially not popular. But towards the end of the 45-day constitutional period, deputies may suddenly decide to embrace it to avoid the spectre of an early election which may cost them their seats. That model would leave no room for party discipline. It would aim to remain in office at least two years to keep the state operating and to introduce certain lasting reforms. There would be certain obstacles on the path of that model. For one thing it would be difficult to overcome the decisive role of the party leaders. Also difficult would be to bring together for such a purpose deputies from a variety of political parties.

5- An election government is inevitable: If none of these farfetched ideas work, and if no other party proves willing to form a government with the RP, that will leave only one option. President Demirel will dissolve Parliament and order an election in 90 days which would be staged by a government led by a prime minister appointed by the president, a government in which political parties would have equal representation. For Demirel to be able to invoke the relevant constitutional clause, no new government should be able to be formed and to have won a vote of confidence in the 45 days which follow the resignation of the Yilmaz government. And this period would expire on July 20 at the earliest.

[02] US State Department strongly opposes Congress on aid to Turkey

By Ugur Akinci
Turkish Daily News

WASHINGTON- The U.S. administration expressed its opposition to the decision of the U.S. House of Representatives to attach pro-Armenian conditions to a $25 million Economic Support Fund (ESF) grant to Turkey in fiscal year '97. On Wednesday evening, Turkish Ambassador Nuzhet Kandemir sent a letter to Secretary of State Warren Christopher and House Speaker Newt Gingrich, expressing Turkey's decision not to accept the ESF with such conditions. The Turkish Parliament approved the decision on Thursday. Turkey will receive a $148 million loan for military assistance.

Foundation of US policy

State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said "we're strongly opposed" to the amendments proposed by the House. "We believe we ought to have a very supportive, very active relationship with Turkey, which befits the fact that in Southeast Europe, Turkey is one of the foundations of American policy in the region. We have an excellent relationship with the Turkish government. We want to continue that relationship."

No support

Burns went on to complain about a "larger problem" -- namely, that the administration has found (over the last couple of years) that we have not received adequate support from the Congress for our economic assistance programs -- and sometimes for our security assistance programs -- for friendly countries."

"Turkey is greatest'

To make sure that his message does not fall on deaf ears, Burns emphasized Turkey's special position in the region: "In this case, we're talking not about just a friendly country, but an allied country, a country that backed us up in every major conflict we've been in since the Korean War. There are few greater allies of the United States than Turkey." Burns said that it was too early for pessimism since the foreign aid bill still has to go through the U.S. Senate and -- most likely -- the Conference Committee to iron out the differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill.

Self-interest

Burns made it clear that U.S. self-interest required that "there ought to be an adequate level of American support for Turkey. Our sense of America's self-interest and of our foreign policy concerns would seem to dictate to us that we ought to have an active, supportive relationship with the government of Turkey, and we hope to convince members of Congress that they should join us in that stance."

Livingston: 'Embarrassing'

Not at all shy about expressing his disappointment with pro-Armenian House amendments, Republican Bob Livingston from Louisiana, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, characterized the House decision as "embarrassing." He made the comment on Thursday during a fund-raising address he delivered at the International Republican Institute. One of the amendments proposed to cut $3 million out of a $25 million ESF to Turkey unless Turkey recognizes the "Armenian genocide" which Armenians insist happened between 1915-1923.

Why didn't the United States attach a similar condition to the more than $500 million earmarked for Russia, for example, requiring that unless they apologize for the genocide committed under Stalin, no U.S. dollars would be delivered, Livingston argued. He said it was just plain "bad policy to single out a friendly ally like Turkey for tragic events that happened 80 years ago, under a different regime altogether."

Kandemir's complaint.

Ambassador Kandemir told the Turkish press on Thursday evening that he did not think the U.S. administration tried its very best to keep the House from adopting such anti-Turkish amendments. Sidestepping the diplomatic land mine, Burns said he had not seen Kandemir's statement and he "had not understood that he had said that."

But regardless of what Kandemir has said, "I can just tell ... you ... that we always do our best to work with the Congress to apprise them of our point of view, and certainly the Congress cannot be under any other understanding, other than that the United States government wants to go forward with Turkey," Burns said. "I think the Turkish people can be assured that we want to continue a very strong active relationship.

[03] Arafat may miss Istanbul "summit"; Macedonia's name causes a fuss

ISTANBUL- Random gleanings from a reporter's notebook at the Habitat II conference:

* U.N. Spokesman Ayman El-Amir provided at his daily press briefing Friday a list of countries whose heads of state or government are expected to attend next week's "high-level segment" of the U.N. Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) now under way in Istanbul.

Since Turkish Foreign Ministry Spokesman Semih Akbel had revealed a similar list the day before, the major surprises in El-Amir's list were the omissions: Palestine Authority President Yasser Arafat and Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin are notconfirmed. And Turkish President Suleyman Demirel, who as host-country chief of state was chosen as the conference's president when it opened last Monday, will return to Istanbul to participate in the high-level segment Wednesday-Friday.

Other heads of state are expected from Azerbaijan, Uganda, Macedonia, Poland, Kenya, Romania, Burkina-Fasso and Israel, El-Amir said, while heads of government are awaited from Pakistan, Iceland, Rwanda, Kyrgyzstan, Guinea-Bissau, Djibouti and Burundi.

In all, "about 80" countries have asked to speak during the high-level segment. Most will be represented by cabinet-level officials. Changes in the countries whose heads of state/government will come are probable until the high-level segment begins -- and perhaps even during it.

* What's in a name? A lot, if the name is "Macedonia" and you're from the country of that name or from Greece.

Yorgo Shundovski, the Macedonian minister for urbanization, delivered a typical speech to a plenary session during the "general exchange of views" (about all that's been going on in the plenaries this week). He talked about Macedonia's plans to improve urban suburbs and the need for "significant financial resources that cannot be acquired from domestic sources," as the U.N.'s news service summarized his statement.

Unexceptional, one might think -- except that he referred to his country as "the Republic of Macedonia." Greece argues that name creates the impression that the Macedonians have designs on the Greek region of Macedonia, so the delegate from Greece exercised his "right of reply": the U.N. Security Council, in admitting Macedonia to the U.N., decreed that it must be referred to as "the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" -- FYRM, for short. Responded the Macedonian (or FYRMian): a country's name is its internal affair. Not so, retorted the Greek: The UNSC resolution controls.

Both sides having made their points, the matter rested.

* Dr. Wally N'Dow, secretary general of the U.N. Center for Human Settlements in Nairobi, Kenya, as well as of the Habitat II conference, is an exceptionally articulate man with a fine touch for the right word or apt turn of phrase. Among his usages are "glocal" -- combining "global" and "local" to denote the all-encompassing approach which he urges to solve the urban crisis -- and "slow-motion civil war" -- the progression from festering civil unrest to sporadic conflict which can turn into full-blown civil war, as has happened in Burundi and Liberia.

* Former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau once described his country's relations with its larger southern neighbor (the United States) as "like sleeping with an elephant. One worries that it might roll over."

A Canadian "pro-life" (anti-abortion) lobby has accused Canada of being a "willing pawn of the U.S. ... operating in lockstep" at Habitat II. The lobby alleged the two countries have worked together in seeking to permit "abortion, sterilization and contraceptive" (sic) for "children of any age" and of favoring removal of references to "parental rights" from the "Habitat Agenda," the global plan of action currently being drafted.

"Its (sic) time that Canada's politics at the UN Conferences also be investigated," the lobby, REAL Women of Canada, said in a statement.

* Another pro-life lobby, the Caucus for Stable Communities (CSC), has accused the U.N. Population Fund and its executive director, Dr. Nafis Sadik, of being "hostile to the first human habitat" -- a woman's womb.

CSC charged that a fund-supported newsletter accused the caucus of ignoring "the fact that women want a life outside the home," and it accused Dr. Sadik of disparaging the caucus's desire to remove the phrase "reproductive health" from the Habitat Agenda. Seeking to "undermine national sovereignty by instructing delegates as to what the final document should contain" is not the function of "an appointed U.N. official like Dr. Sadik, who has an obvious vested interest in protecting and expanding her bureaucratic empire," the caucus's statement argued.

* Having declared it will block European Union initiatives because of unhappiness over the EU's blockade of British beef which came as a result of the "mad cow" disease, is the United Kingdom dragging its heels regarding the EU's participation in Habitat II? In no way, replied Paolo Coppini, the Italian diplomat who is coordinator of the Italian delegation who, (because Italy is president of the EU for the first half of 1996, spoke for the EU at a press briefing; the British are "participating actively."

Up to a point: The UK's position involves only "new decisions," and the EU's "negotiating positions are clear," Coppini explained; the EU will "not forsake our objectives" while reaching compromises on such matters as wording the Habitat Agenda.

* Coppini also criticized the "big" European media for providing "relatively little" coverage of the preparations for and activities of the conference: "It's not sufficiently well known how much the European Union is behind this conference and how much the conference means to the European Union."

Whereupon a reporter asked how many European leaders will attend next week's high-level segment, tacitly viewing that number as evidence of the EU's feelings toward Habitat II. "Not many," Coppini acknowledged, adding that the "political level" of most governments really wasn't seized with the urban crisis.

However, "we all will have our competent ministers here."

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