Turkish Daily News, 96-05-08

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From: Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs <http://www.mfa.gov.tr>

TURKISH DAILY NEWS
8 May 1996

CONTENTS

[01] Motherpath is considered 'finished'

[02] While hope fades on government, no immediate end is apparent

[03] Sungurlu: Turkey's role is crucial to European security

[04] Ambassador Unan blasts allegations of Turkish finger in Chechen war

[05] US endorses Turkish views on Europe and Syria/PKK

[06] Ankara rules out any revision on Montreux accord

[07] Yilmaz invites foreign textile investment

[01] Motherpath is considered 'finished'

By Kemal Balci
TDN Parliament Bureau

ANKARA- The two-month-old Motherpath coalition seems to be in a process of dissolution. At the head offices of the three leading parties, leaders are busy working on ways of tripping one another up. Convinced that the coalition cannot last any longer, each is making plans for the post-Motherpath era. It is not only the coalition partners that are trying to undermine each other's leaders, Welfare Party (RP) staffers are also pondering how to get in on the act.

This will obviously be a lengthy war of attrition. Among the three leaders, True Path Party (DYP) Chairwomen Tansu Ciller seems to be in the most dire straights. Ciller has seen that she can only fight a "limited, low-intensity war" against Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz. She now finds herself in a troubling position.

DYP tactics

There is no way Ciller could retaliate by accusing Yilmaz of irregularities and tabling similar motions against him. This is because Yilmaz heads the coalition government of which the DYP is a partner. The DYP cannot take that path because if the Parliament voted in favor of such a motion it would inevitably mean the entire collapse of the coalition government. DYP officials are taking care not to be seen as the side which ends the coalition.

DYP sources indicate that party staff assessed the situation at a series of meetings chaired by Ciller in the course of the past week. The idea that prevailed at these meetings was that the DYP should not withdraw from the government but that it should do everything to make Mesut Yilmaz suffer. Ciller has reportedly given her staff three instructions regarding the tactics to be employed:

- DYP officials will respond promptly to Prime Minister Yilmaz's every comment or move.

- To undermine the chances for ANAP-RP dialogue, the DYP circles will try to drive a wedge between them. For that purpose DYP deputies will table a motion against RP leader Necmettin Erbakan, in an effort to have Erbakan's personal assets investigated, and try to ensure that ANAP deputies vote in favor of that motion.

- Yilmaz will be prevented from making any move on any issue. The aim is to make Yilmaz look like a "prime minister who has failed." Bills brought to Parliament will be obstructed at the committee stage. Yilmaz will not be able to get any laws passed before the end of the year. This will wear out his nerves and encourage him to withdraw from the government.

Ciller is reportedly adamant to force Yilmaz to take the final step because she wants to elaborate on the "Mesut always runs away," theme, which she has harped on frequently in the past. She wants to portray Yilmaz as a person who flees in the face of difficulty. To sum up, the DYP tactics will be aimed at forcing Yilmaz to end the present coalition and at intimidating Erbakan with motions of inquiry against him.

ANAP's reasoning

Meanwhile, ANAP tactics are aimed at having the "Motherpath coalition" lead to a "Motherpath Party," that is, an ANAP-DYP merger. To do this they want to first get rid of Ciller, then lure to ANAP the "leaderless" DYP deputies. ANAP officials assume that the DYP would not be able to withstand for long the accusations of irregularities allegedly committed during Tansu Ciller's prime ministry. They believe that Ciller won't be reelected under such circumstances at the DYP Congress, scheduled to take place on July 21.

They reason that even if they could not prevent Ciller's reelection they could still prevent Ciller from taking over the prime ministry at the end of the current year. According to the Constitution, if Ciller is tried at the High Court on corruption charges, she would be barred from becoming prime minister at the end of the year, as the coalition protocol states. If DYP officials saw that Ciller would not be able to take over the prime ministry at the end of the year, they might be inclined to not risk destroying the party and decide "not to carry her along anymore."

ANAP officials are not only trying to draw this "fine line," separating the DYP from Tansu Ciller, but they are also trying to keep the road clear for an RP-ANAP coalition so that they could promptly form a government the moment the country is faced with a "government vacuum." Recalling that the initial ANAP attempt to form a government with the RP had drawn strong adverse reactions, they said that any new attempt will be different because this time an ANAP-RP coalition will be a necessity.

RP position

RP officials, meanwhile, believe that they can divide the DYP by wearing out Ciller with the parliamentary inquiries they have moved. According to leading RP figures, Ciller would not be able to remain leader if a minimum of 30 DYP deputies deserted her party. The officials assume that the RP would be able to form a coalition much more easily with a Ciller-less DYP. At the same time, they are trying to expand their room for maneuver by keeping ANAP under pressure as well. Their contention is that if Ciller is "ousted" as the DYP leader, ANAP would no longer be able to maintain its unity by rallying around Mesut Yilmaz. An RP source said, "ANAP is simmering. The Tansu Ciller problem serves to keep the problems inside the party hidden away from the eyes of the public. The moment the Tansu Ciller problem is solved, ANAP will be faced with great turmoil." The three parties' plans to "trap" the leaders of the rival parties are expected to bear fruit by the end of summer at the latest.

[02] While hope fades on government, no immediate end is apparent

By Ayla Ganioglu
Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- The vote in Parliament two weeks ago to initiate an inquiry into True Path Party (DYP) leader and former Prime Minister Tansu Ciller concerning corruption allegations also started the countdown for the two-month old coalition. As it was, the minority government coalition between the DYP and the Motherland Party (ANAP) had been formed only with the indirect support of Bulent Ecevit's Democratic Left Party (DSP).

The DSP, by abstaining during the vote of confidence in Parliament, had ensured that the ANAP-DYP coalition was endorsed by the necessary number of deputies. But what appears now to have sealed the fate of the coalition is the Welfare Party, which is still preserving its hope of coming to power and which effectively tightened the noose around the ANAP-DYP coalition's neck with its motions for inquiries into Ciller.

Since then the government can be said to be fighting for its life. DYP ministers have now fully raised the flag of rebellion against ANAP leader and Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz. So much so that the prime minister can only get his words across to ministers from his own party. DYP ministers are refusing to attend meetings on the economy even though Yilmaz calls them to these meetings. The same ministers boycott meetings of the Cabinet.

Industry Minister Yalim Erez, who is known as Ciller's right hand, is every day coming out with statements attacking Yilmaz that are more characteristic of an opposition leader than a cabinet minister. All of these factors are being taken as signs that the five-year plan announced in the coalition protocol with such great fanfare is now almost defunct.

Under this plan Yilmaz was to transfer the premiership to Ciller for two years at the end of this year. There were even rosy dreams of one of the two leaders becoming president and the other the leader of the center-right as a result of this "rotating Premiership" model. But no one is thinking of these any more. Now the question in everyone's mind is who will be the first to pull the trigger and officially put an end to this minority coalition government.

Another question is what the timing selected for the end of the government partnership will be. In the meantime the passing of the motion in Parliament for an inquiry into alleged links between former Prime Minister Ciller and contract irregularities at state- run electricity company TEDAS appears to have started the countdown to the end of the DYP leader's political life as well. Some political circles see the whole TEDAS affair as the start of the process aimed at ridding politics of Tansu Ciller.

This feeling is particularly prevalent given that even if she comes out of the TEDAS inquiry unharmed there are other inquiry motions waiting for her. The most notable of these, the file involving alleged irregularities in the privatization of state shares in carmaker TOFAS, will be put to the vote on Thursday. This motion, also submitted by the RP, is expected to be accepted by an even greater margin of votes than the TEDAS motion, with many ANAP deputies expected to vote for an inquiry. Following this motion is one in the pipeline concerning the manner in which the Ciller family accumulated the assets that it possesses today; this will also be submitted by the RP.

Ciller, who in the past has managed to free herself without bruises from such motions, will probably find it difficult to do so this time. Political analysts estimate that the prospect of Ciller becoming prime minister at the end of the year is more or less a dream at this stage. Perfectly aware of all this, Ciller now appears to be after securing satisfaction by making her party's coalition partner pay dearly for its support for these motions. DYP deputies have thus started a war of attrition against Yilmaz which is expected to intensify after Thursday's TOFAS vote.

Despite all this, the struggle between the coalition partners is not expected to finish off the government right away, simply because neither party at this stage wants to appear the one to have ended the coalition partnership. This in turn means that the government will continue in the short term, especially because both Yilmaz and Ciller are planning to escape this whole crisis with the minimum harm to themselves. Both leaders will also be involved in a race for their party's leadership this month. The DYP is expected to hold its big congress in the first half of July.

DYP sources say that for Ciller to enter this congress as prime minister will give her an advantage. Ciller's withdrawal from the government before the congress, on the other hand, is expected to give her rivals within the DYP an advantage. The ANAP congress is expected to be held in August unless a decision is taken to hold it earlier. Yilmaz too, if he can go to this congress as prime minister, will not have much problem being reelected as party leader. Some political analysts feel that it is overoptimistic to expect the ANAP-DYP coalition to survive until July or August and claim that ties will be severed between the parties before then.

Others, however, are aware that a factor tying the hands of the two parties is the fact that the only alternatives to their government are a government with the RP at the helm, or early elections, a prospect that neither are prepared to digest. Yet another scenario being brought to the fore by some analysts has the DYP being split, or Ciller being "deposed" from the leadership, and the center-right uniting under the leadership of Mesut Yilmaz.

But this scenario also has Yilmaz being deposed later and the center-right uniting under another leader.

[03] Sungurlu: Turkey's role is crucial to European security

By Orya Sultan Halisdemir
Turkish Daily News

BIRMINGHAM- Turkish Defense Minister Oltan Sungurlu said Tuesday that Turkey has a crucial role to play in Europe's security as it is a very important member of the NATO alliance. Speaking at a briefing for Turkish journalists at the Western European Union (WEU) council meeting held in this Midlands city, Sungurlu stated that it was necessary for Turkey to become a full member of the WEU. "Europe's security cannot be achieved without having Turkey as a full member of the WEU," he said. Sungurlu also said the future of the WEU should be clarified before Turkey's full membership. "We do not know what the Intergovernmental Conference will decide regarding the future of the WEU," he pointed out.

The defense minister added that the member states were in favor of cooperation between NATO and the WEU. When asked, Sungurlu said Turkey had once again voiced its reservations about the proposed full membership of Malta and Cyprus in the WEU. Meanwhile Greek Defense Minister Gerassimos Arsenis said in Birmingham that there was no possibility that Turkey would become a full member of the WEU. In a statement to the BBC's Greek service Arsenis said he rated the chances of such membership for Turkey as "zero" because WEU membership was restricted to membership in the European Union.

"We do not have to put up any fight in this respect. The case is a lost one for Turkey" Arsenis maintained.

[04] Ambassador Unan blasts allegations of Turkish finger in Chechen war

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Turkey's ambassador to Moscow, Bilgin Unan, has characterized certain reports in the Russian press concerning alleged involvement by Ankara in the Chechen crisis as "part of a dirty game."

Unan said, contrary to what was being alleged, that Turkey attaches great importance to the stability of Russia. Speaking to "Red Star," the publication of the Russian Ministry of Defence, Unan said the good ties between Ankara and Moscow today rested in this stability being preserved. Unan, whose remarks were carried by the Anatolian news agency on Tuesday, indicated that both Turkey and Russia were countries which faced major problems. But he said Turkey was well aware of the big potential that Russia carried as a successful country and added this was the reason why Ankara "believed in Russia's role in the world."

Indicating that Turkey and Russia were also going through a "historic phase" in their ties, Unan pointed to the five high level visits that have taken place between the two countries in the past month alone. He also highlighted the "rich relationship" between the two countries in terms of trade and tourism contacts. Touching on the crisis in Chechnya, Unan also underlined that Turkey respected Russia's territorial integrity and that it was also respectful of the principle on noninterference in the domestic affairs of other countries.

Referring to articles in the Russian press on Turkey's alleged role in the Chechen crisis, Unan said these were part of a "dirty game" and that some of the reports "exceeded the limits of imagination." He drew attention in this context to a recent report alleging that fighter jets taking off from Turkey had bombed civilian targets in Chechnya.

Unan also said that the cooperation between the intelligence units of both countries would become effective in the not so distant future.

[05] US endorses Turkish views on Europe and Syria/PKK

Turkish Daily News

WASHINGTON- The U.S. State Department has endorsed the views of two top Turkish officials regarding Turkish-European and Turkish-Syrian relations. And Undersecretary of State Lynn Davis has told a congressional committee: "It would be hard to overstate the importance of Turkey as a U.S. ally."

Asked at the department's daily press briefing Monday about Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz's call that morning for Syria to cease its support of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), spokesman Nicholas Burns reiterated U.S. support of "Turkey's wish that countries beyond Turkey give up their support of the PKK, specifically Syria.

Therefore what Prime Minister Yilmaz said this morning makes sense to us ... as part of our own policy." Said Burns flatly: "Syria ought to cease and desist from support for the PKK." Burns also was asked about Foreign Minister Emre Gonensay's statement that Turkey should become a full member of the Western European Union. "We have supported almost across the board Turkey's wish ... to become more closely linked to European institutions," the spokesman replied, citing the EU customs union as an example. However, he had nothing specific to offer on Turkey's possible membership of the Western European Union.

Another Turkey-related question at the press briefing involved the possibility of including Turkey in a regional strategic cooperation agreement built around the U.S.-Israel relationship. The question arose in the context of the planned meeting Wednesday between Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Israeli Foreign Minister Ehud Barak..

While Burns acknowledged recent efforts "to strengthen the U.S.-Israel relationship ... on a bilateral basis," he said he was "not aware of any efforts to create a multilateral effort ... That would include Turkey or anyone else." However, he expressed confidence that "we'll talk about those issues with Foreign Minister Barak and many others, as well."

Testifying last week in support of the Clinton administration's foreign aid request for next fiscal year, Davis noted that "America's vital security and economic interests are inextricably tied to Europe ... The potentially volatile situation in Europe's southeastern corner requires particular care.

"The U.S. is committed to advancing the negotiating process on Cyprus, reducing and ultimately eliminating tensions between Turkey and Greece, and strengthening Turkey's place in the Western economic and security system," Davis said before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations. "Failure here could unravel all our other European security efforts. As a result, the United States gives high priority not only to bilateral relations with these countries, but also to promoting ties between this region and Western Europe."

Regarding proposals for assistance to Greece and Turkey, Davis said the United States plans "to continue our support for two key NATO allies in recognition of their importance in maintaining stability in a region that is critical to U.S. interests. Our FY (fiscal year) 1997 request of $32 million for the subsidy cost of a total of $297 million in FMF (Foreign Military Financing) loans for Greece and Turkey will supports sustainment of U.S.-origin equipment. "We are also requesting $60 million in ESF (Economic Support Funds)," Davis stated, "to help Turkey address long-term structural reforms necessary to sustain growth, to ease the transition resulting from Turkish membership in the EU customs union, and to help offset the economic costs associated with enforcement of U.N. sanctions against Iraq." (Comparative figures for FY 1976 are $33.5 million for ESF and $320 million for FMF.) In justifying the aid to Turkey, Davis pointed to the difficulty of overstating "the importance of Turkey as a U.S. ally.

It is at the crossroads of almost every issue of importance to the United States on the Eurasian continent, including NATO, the Balkans, Cyprus, Iraq sanctions, Russia's relations with the NIS (New Independent States formed out of the former Soviet Union), Middle East peace, narcotics trafficking, and transit routes for Central Asian oil and gas." But Davis also noted that the Clinton administration "continues to stress to Turkish officials the necessity of improving its human rights record and strengthening its democracy. We are working with our European Allies at every opportunity to urge Turkey to continue the reforms it began last summer and fall." Continued Davis: "Turkey's new Prime Minister, Mesut Yilmaz, has indicated Turkey's willingness to: - engage in discussions to begin the process of a peaceful settlement with Greece; - start working to solve the Kurdish situation by a peaceful, rather than military, means; and - open a border gate with Armenia if Turkey sees clear signs of progress toward a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in their five-year war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. We are pleased by the new government's commitment to resolving these problems and we will work closely with them to implement these policies, especially the new approach to the Southeast."

[06] Ankara rules out any revision on Montreux accord

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Despite Foreign Minister Emre Gonensay's reference to new measures to prevent oil tankers using the straits, Ankara still has no intention of changing the Montreux Convention which governs the status of the straits. Gonensay said on Monday, on his way to Birmingham for a Western European Union (WEU) meeting, that the Foreign Ministry was working on a set of measures against the possibility of increased traffic of oil tankers through the Straits.

The foreign minister, who has been responsible for the Caspian oil pipeline projects via Turkey since his time as prime ministerial adviser, did not elaborate on the measures. Turkish diplomats, for their part, confirmed that there were indeed efforts in the relevant departments "to prevent the straits from becoming oil pipelines" -- a sarcastic reference to the frequent oil leaks that further threaten the already-polluted straits.

However, the same sources denied that the measures would be "any shock package" and said they would definitely fall short of revising the 1936 Montreux Convention that gives Turkey the right to regulate the traffic in the two straits -- Bosphorus and Dardanelles -- but gives perfect freedom of transit in peace time.

A diplomat firmly denied that Turkey was even considering the revision of the Montreux Convention. "This is not at all on the agenda of Turkey," he said. Asked about the "possible measures," he said that there would be "no magic formulas" but that Turkey would go on expressing its "safety concerns" for Istanbul, Turkey's largest city with a population of 12 million.According to diplomatic observers, Gonensay's statement did not mean a new initiative but signalled an accelerating Turkish drive to voice its environmental and safety concerns to international organizations, governments and also to the oil companies which are part of various consortia of Caspian oil. Turkey has put its position bluntly before Chevron, which has substantial shares in Kazakh oil. Gonensay's words were occasioned by the recently signed Russo-Kazakh accord to transport Kazakh oil to Novorossiysk, a Russian port in the Black Sea.

Turks fear that the accord, which would mean the building of a pipeline from Kazakhstan's Tenghiz fields to Novorossiysk, will lead to the transportation of Azeri oil through this route, rather than the Turkish-supported and as yet unbuilt route via Georgia. The 1.24 million barrels per day question is where the oil would be taken from there.

Turkey has already introduced new measures for "safety of passage" for the two straits. The rules have also received a partial international recognition by being approved by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) despite Russian protests. Gonensay indicated that there could be new measures, but it is difficult to predict how far Turkey can go with the limits imposed by Montreux.

According to legal experts, Turkey cannot introduce limitations of tonnage and quality of the cargo. Turkey has the right to "regulate passage," but not the right to prevent certain merchant ships from passing through the straits. Both the 1924 Lausanne Treaty and Montreux give commercial concerns the right of free passage from the straits during peacetime.

The right of fortification over the straits was given to Turkey with Montreux. Pilotage and towage will be optional. But it can make use of the "safety clause" in the convention which says Turkey has the right to regulate the right of passage to ensure the steady and safe flow of traffic through the straits.

[07] Yilmaz invites foreign textile investment

ISTANBUL- Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz invited foreign textile firms to invest in the Turkish textile and clothing sector in his opening speech of the 12th World Apparel Convention, saying they should take advantage of the fact that "Turkey has become a country of know-how transfer". Yilmaz pointed out that Turkey is among the very few self-sufficient countries in textile raw materials, saying behind the success of the Turkish clothing industry lies the large quantity of high quality cotton production.

The prime minister predicted that with the completion of the Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP), the Harran plateau will turn into "a second Cukurova", Turkey's major cotton producing area, and the textile sector will flourish in the provincial centers of the southeast such as Gaziantep and Diyarbakir. "We trust in our private sector's ability to transform this immense capacity into industrial goods and exports" Yilmaz told the gathering, emphasizing Turkey's ambition to expand its share of the world textile markets.

Yilmaz outlined recent changes in Turkey's economic direction, pointing out the new orientation of the Turkish economy to globalization leading to an open economy, shifting to an export orientation.One positive result of this shift, according to Yilmaz, is the fact that the Turkish economy continued growing during the world economy's recent bout with stagnation and recession.

Turkey's leading exports are textile and clothing products, Yilmaz noted, and stated that Turkey ranks the second in the European textile trade and fifth among textile- exporting countries of the world.

"All our expectations, however", Yilmaz continued, "are far from being realized."He underlined the contrast between the 62 million strong population of Turkey and her share of world trade, which is still 04.5%.Yilmaz compared this figures with those of the member countries of NAFTA, EU and APEC, which contain the 44% of world population while holding 85% of world trade. Yilmaz emphasized the importance of international cooperation in the textile industry, and marked the holding of the International Apparel Foundation's convention in Turkey as an important step towards developing the Turkish textile sector's international connections.

Yilmaz reminded the foreign participants that the 70% of the foreign investment in the Central Asian republics are realized by Turkish firms and invited the foreign textile industrialists to invest in machinery production in Turkey rather than trying to supply machinery for Turkish textile industry."Turkey has become a know- how transferring country", he suggested, and continued that Turkey is capable of bridging the western technology with the Asian potentials.

Reiterating the title of the convention, Yilmaz called Turkey the center of the "winds of enterprise" with a textile sector working in line with European standards. Yilmaz's brother Turgut Yilmaz attracted large media attention but he repeatedly reminded the journalists that he was there in capacity of representing the Textile Bank rather than as the prime minister's brother.

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