[01] Neo rekor gia to petrelaio

Sygkekrimena, h timh toy amerikanikoy elafroy argoy, symbolaioy Maioy, anhlqe shmera to apogeyma (18:40 wra Ellados) sta 73,30 dolaria to bareli, sta ychlotera epipeda apo thn enarjh ths diapragmateyshs toy symbolaioy sto xrhmatisthrio emporeymatwn ths N. Yorkhs (NYMEX), to 1983. Sto xrhmatisthrio emporeymatwn toy Londinoy, h timh toy petrelaioy typoy Mprent, symbolaioy Maioy, briskotan sta 73 dolaria to bareli, gia prwth fora apo ton Ioynio toy 1988 poy jekinhse na leitoyrgei h International Petroleum Exchange sto Londino.

Meta tis synexeis ayjhseis sthn timh toy petrelaioy arketoi oikonomologoi exoyn jekinhsei na anarwtioyntai an h ektinajh ths timhs toy ta teleytaia tessera xronia qa ayjhsei tis times panw apo ta oria anoxhs, qa enisxysei twn plhqwrismo kai qa periorisei thn epixeirhmatikh drasthriothta logw ths ayjhshs toy kostoys.

Symfwna me ton kaqhghth Oikonomikwn sto bretaniko panepisthmio Warwick, Antrioy Osbalnt, "h anqektikothta twn oikonomiwn ths Dyshs stis prosfates ayjhseis toy petrelaioy htan ajioshmeiwth, alla piqanws den mporei na diarkesei". Pantws, kanenas apo toys oikonomikoys analytes poy exoyn asxolhqei idiaitera me ton petrelaiko klado, den mporei na einai sigoyros gia to ti akribws qa symbei kai h empeiria apo tis prohgoymenes dekaeties isws apotelei ena ftwxo odhgo.

Oi times toy petrelaioy exoyn peripoy diplasiastei ta teleytaia dyo xronia kai sxedon triplasiastei apo to 2002. Omws o ryqmos ths oikonomikhs anaptyjhs se pagkosmio epipedo htan sto kalytero shmeio twn teleytaiwn 30 xronwn (5,1%) to 2004, para to oti h timh toy mprent ana bareli eixe ayjhqei kata 30% mono gia to etos ayto. Epishs, ta kerdh twn epixeirhsewn gia to etos 2005 htan ayjhmena kata 30% se xwres opws h Germania kai oi HPA, para to ayjhmeno energeiako kostos se o,ti afora thn paragwgh, enw oi epidoseis gia to prohgoymeno etos se polloys tomeis htan akoma kalyteres. Ta dedomena ayta apexoyn poly apo thn yfesh ths oikonomias poy akoloyqhse tis kriseis poy proklhqhkan apo to empargko petrelaioy poy eixan epibalei oi Arabes sta mesa ths dekaetias toy '70 kai apo thn Islamikh Epanastash sto Iran to 1979, kaqws kai apo ton polemo metajy toy Iran kai Irak poy akoloyqhse.

Apo thn pleyra toy, to Dieqnes Nomismatiko Tameio shmeiwse thn prohgoymenh ebdomada oti h ayjhsh ths timhs toy "mayroy xrysoy" eixe prokalesei paliotera th meiwsh toy AEP stis HPA kata 0,5% kata meso oro kai eixe symbalei sthn ayjhsh toy plhqwrismoy kata 0,75%, alla ayth th fora oi epiptwseis den htan toso shmantikes, ejaitias ths kalyterhs nomismatikhs politikhs kai twn xamhloterwn epitokiwn.

Opws anaferei kai o kaqhghths Oikonomikwn -eidikos stis diakymanseis toy oikonomikoy kykloy ejaitias tis timhs toy petrelaioy- sto panepisthmio ths Kalifornia, Tzeims Xamilton, "h pagkosmia oikonomia antimetwpise tis ayjhseis sthn timh toy petrelaioy to 2005 me mikroterh oikonomikh zhmia apo oti anemena. Ayto me kanei na pisteyw pws to stoixeio oti h timh toy petrelaioy exei ftasei ta 70 dolaria to bareli, den apotelei apo mono toy logo gia shmantikh anhsyxia sthn paroysa fash". Epishs, o kaqhghths Xamilton shmeiwne -toylaxiston mexri prosfata- oti oi petrelaikes kriseis toy parelqontos htan diaforetikes kai me megalyteres epiptwseis giati h ayjhsh ths timhs toy petrelaioy htan pio apotomes kai kyriws giati oi petrelaioparagwges xwres stamatoysan plhrws th roh petrelaioy stis dieqneis agores.

Symfwna me ayth th qewria, to problhma poy prokyptei twra, exei perissotero to xarakthra mias "krishs zhthshs" poy exei dhmioyrghqei apo th taxytath oikonomikh epektash se krath opws h Kina, h opoia einai h xwra me th megalyterh katanalwsh petrelaioy meta tis HPA. Pantws, h qewria ayth ginetai olo kai pio adynamh na ejhghsei to ti akribws symbainei meta th meiwsh ths paragwghs sth Nighria -logw ths epiqeshs aytonomistwn antartwn kata petrelaikwn stoxwn- kai propantos kaqws enteinetai h entash metajy twn HPA kai toy Iran (tetarths megalyterhs petrelaioparagwgoy xwras) gia to pyrhniko toy programma.

Opws shmeiwnei to ychlobaqmo stelexos ths ependytikhs trapezas Morgan Stanley, Erik Tsanei, "anhsyxw giati oi paragontes poy exoyn anebasei thn timh toy petrelaioy panw apo ta 50 dolaria to bareli kai twra panw apo ta 70 dolaria to bareli, einai olo kai perissotero gegonota h anhsyxies poy sxetizontai parapleyra me thn paroxh petrelaioy (Nighria, Iran klp)".

O OPEK, sth mhniaia ekqesh toy, shmeiwnei oti "h staqerh ayjhsh ths timhs ston energeiako tomea isws qesei ena risko thn anaptyjh, eidika se oikonomies opoy o proypologismoi twn katanalwtwn antimetwpizoyn piesh apo thn ayjhsh twn epitokiwn". Symfwna me ton Antam Posen apo to Institoyto Dieqnwn Oikonomikwn, to risko gia ta noikokyria einai megalytero stis HPA, ejaitias toy oti einai ligoteres oi dhmosies sygkoinwnies kai megalyteres oi apostaseis, kai bebaia sygkritika megalytero gia ta ftwxotera noikokyria".

Ejalloy, o gallos ypoyrgos Oikonomikwn, Tieri Mpreton, gnwrizontas poso eykolo einai na xasei kaneis chfoforoys ejaitias ths ychlhs timhs toy petrelaioy, dhlwse oti skopeyei na qesei to qema stis synomilies poy qa exoyn, to prosexes Sabbatokyriako sthn Oyasingkton, ta krath me th megalyterh biomhxanikh anaptyjh (G8).

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