European Business News (EBN), 97-10-08

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CONTENTS

[01] Greenspan takes stern view of long-term economy

[02] Bonn approves Eurofighter project

[03] Northern Telecom and Norweb unveil new Internet technology

[04] Thomson-CSF first half profit surges 39% to $93.3 million

[05] Commerzbank signals interest in buying part of BZW

[06] French strikers cause transport chaos

[07] WorldCom seeks pooling-of-interests with MCI

[08] Danish government forecasts faster than expected GDP growth

[09] Russian Duma says government failed to meet budget targets and worsened economy

[10] Stena Line turnaround will save $46 million a year

[11] De Beers expects downturn in Asian sales but expects US business to compensate

[12] Danone in advanced talks over sale of non-core units

[13] Boeing wins $1.3 billion order from Turkish Airlines

[14] Huels plans $1.1 billion Asian expansion

[15] Bouygues posts first half profit of $89.3 million

[16] Dexia announces first half profit of $355.4 million

[17] Thyssen, Krupp near deal on Thailand plant

[18] Corporate and Economic Briefs

[01] Greenspan takes stern view of long-term economy

'The end of the cold war has yielded a substantial peace dividend, and the best economic performance in decades has augmented tax revenues far beyond expectations while restraining counter-cyclically sensitive outlays,' Greenspan told the House Budget Committee. 'The payout of the peace dividend is coming to an end.'

The Fed chairman offered a fairly benign view of price pressures in the economy. But he also underscored some of the unusual developments in the economy and indicated concern that at some point in the future some of these factors may be significantly reduced.

He also said that he expects labour costs to rise, although he isn't sure of the timing. He added that current labour trends suggest that the economy is on an unsustainable track.

Those comments sent bond and stock markets skidding in both the US and Europe.

Greenspan noted that U.S. labor markets 'have tightened considerably without inflation emerging as it has in the past.' This has encouraged financial markets to price in 'an optimistic outlook,' Greenspan said.

This market outlook has been characterized by what Greenspan called 'a significant reduction in risk and an increasingly benevolent inflation process.'

The Fed chairman said that equity markets have been consistently revising upward longer-term corporate earnings expectations and that price/earnings ratios are being forecast at levels 'not often observed at this stage of an economic expansion.'

Greenspan also noted that over the next decade economic forecasting and key budget assumptions will be complicated by the prospects that the stock market won't be providing the type of capital gains tax receipts that have been seen in recent years. He told lawmakers that 'it clearly would be unrealistic to look for a continuation of stock market gains of anything like the magnitude of those recorded in the past couple of years.'

Greenspan's testimony was interspersed with various remarks on current economic conditions, including his view on how strong labor markets this year 'suggest that the economy has been on an unsustainable track.'

Greenspan also noted that job insecurity factors, which have helped to curb wage-related price pressures in the economy, 'may be fading.'

'To be sure, there is still little evidence in wage acceleration,' Greenspan said. But he added that it is likely that wage pressures will intensify at some point and to believe otherwise, 'strains credibility.'

'If labor demand continues to outpace sustainable increases in supply, the question is surely when, not whether labor costs will escalate more rapidly, ' he said.

[02] Bonn approves Eurofighter project

Chancellor Helmut Kohl's Cabinet decided it wants to buy the high-tech Eurofighter starting in 2002 to replace ageing air force planes. The proposal requires the approval of parliament, where scattered members of Kohl's three-party ruling coalition could withhold their support because of cost concerns.

Defence Minister Volker Ruehe has said, though, that he expects the plan to pass. Lawmakers are expected to vote next month on whether to start funding the plane.

German plans call for the purchase of 180 Eurofighters over 12 years for a total of more than 23 billion marks ($13 billion).

The other Eurofighter partners - Britain, Italy and Spain - have already put in orders for another 440 of the planes, designed as a challenge to US warplane makers.

Germany was delayed by wrangling between the finance and defence ministries and objections from the Free Democrats, an anti-tax party that is Kohl's junior coalition partner. Juergen Koppelin, the Free Democrats' budget expert, said last month that the plane still has technical problems and should get more testing.

Germany's Federal Accounting Office has urged the government to order only 90 of the planes because of its budget deficit. Ruehe argues the project secures some 18,000 German high-tech jobs. The Eurofighter was conceived during the Cold War in the 1980s but held up by technology problems, cost overruns and questions about whether it was still needed after the end of communism.

[03] Northern Telecom and Norweb unveil new Internet technology

The companies said access speed exceeds one megabit per second, which is some 10 times faster than ISDN access, the fastest available link for domestic users.

'As one of the first practical low cost answers to the problem of high speed access to the Internet this new technology will unleash the next wave of net growth,' said Nortel Vice-President Peter Dudley.

Recent trials on the Norweb Communications network in north-west England have been completed successfully and the technology is now ready to be deployed in volume, the companies said.

The technology, which enables electricity companies to convert their power infrastructures into information access networks, will be marketed in Europe and Asia Pacific.

The companies said the technology, under development for the past three years, will allow electricity companies to provide a service that solves the three major problems facing domestic Internet take-up: access to consumers' homes, data transmission rates and capital cost.

The system will offer permanent on-line connection with the potential for lower charges and uses a patented technology that screens the data from electrical interference on the host power line.

Investment costs for the electricity companies, the companies said, are low compared to those envisaged for other broadband data access systems. Due to the nature of this technology, it can be rolled out in targeted phases, they added.

[04] Thomson-CSF first half profit surges 39% to $93.3 million

Operating profit fell around 4.0% to 903 million francs on a slight decline in revenue to 16.41 billion francs from 16.44 billion francs in first-half 1996.

Thomson-CSF said good international sales helped compensate for shrinkage in domestic sales, while bottom line profitability was boosted by proceeds from its sale of its 17.2% stake in Franco-Italian memory-chip maker SGS- Thomson Microelectronics.

The company said the SGS-Thompson sale should free up 7 billion francs in financial resources and lead to a net capital gain of around 2.5 billion francs.

Thomson-CSG warned that efforts to boost its competitiveness, in face of contracting Western defence budgets and international rivalry, will prevent any cut in the average level of provisions it has to make for restructuring its operations.

The state-owned company is headed for privatization later this year, with French newspaper reports suggesting it will be at least a week before the Socialist government of Lionel Jospin makes its decision on how to dispose of its holding in the company.

The government had said it would make a decision by the end of the September.

[05] Commerzbank signals interest in buying part of BZW

According to people familiar with Commerzbank's plans, the bank has decided to take a look at BZW, the Barclays investment-banking unit whose equities and corporate advisory business was put up for sale last week. Several European and US banks are believed to have also indicated some interest in the BZW operations.

However, the same people also cautioned that an acquisition of this size might well be judged too large for Commerzbank to undertake. The main target, they said, would likely be BZW's corporate finance group, which could bolster Commerzbank's efforts to develop an effective investment- banking presence in Britain.

Commerzbank is in the midst of raising 1.56 billion marks ($887.2 million) via a rights issue. Some of the proceeds will be used to expand its investment-banking operations to catch up with its two larger German competitors, Deutsche Bank and Dresdner Bank, which both own London-based investment banks.

Rather than going for a big acquisition, Commerzbank has so far relied on a strategy of small acquisitions and hiring key players. In July, it appointed Mehmet Dalman, the former head of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell's East Asian operations in Tokyo, as head of global equities.

Other recent hires include four people from Deutsche Morgan Grenfell's proprietary trading desk in London, who started work at Commerzbank last week. Deutsche Morgan Grenfell is the investment-banking arm of Deutsche Bank.

In its latest move, Commerzbank officials said the bank hired insurance analyst Michael Drapper from Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. He will join Commerzbank in January.

In a telephone interview, Dalman said Commerzbank's board has already committed substantial sums for technology and other infrastructure. The bank, he said, is pressing ahead with a clearly defined program to create 'a global, fully integrated, high-technology, financial engineering-driven equities business.'

In that context, he said, Commerzbank is clearly 'on the lookout' for possible acquisitions. The test, however, would be 'to see if they fit in with the overall business that we want to create,' Dalman said.

[06] French strikers cause transport chaos

The state rail company SNCF reported only one out of three trains running in the Paris region, where about 9 million people depend on public transit daily. The Paris subway network also reported about 60% of normal service.

On longer routes, the SNCF said most ran a third of their scheduled trains. But two out of three trains were running in eastern France as well as on the Eurostar to London.

The walkout aimed to apply pressure on talks to begin Friday between the government, unions and business leaders on cutting the workweek - aimed at spreading jobs around to fight 12.5% unemployment.

Since the left defeated the governing conservatives in June parliamentary elections, the government of Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin has tempered its position on cutting the work week.

Officials continue to favour a 35-hour week but have hedged on how that would affect workers' paychecks, amid concern higher labor costs could hurt French businesses and crimp France's slow recovery.

On Friday, Jospin is to meet with 11 labour and employer organizations along with Labour Minister Martine Aubry, Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Budget Minister Christian Sautter.

[07] WorldCom seeks pooling-of-interests with MCI

WorldCom last week bid $30 billion for MCI and said it would use so-called purchase accounting to complete the transaction. However, in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, WorldCom said it wants 'to meet promptly with MCI and BT to achieve a negotiated transaction that WorldCom believes could be structured as a pooling.'

The appeal behind a pooling is the prospect of a stronger earnings kick to a blended WorldCom-MCI than under the purchase method. According to WorldCom's SEC filings, for the six months ended June 30, earnings at a combined WorldCom-MCI would have been 39 cents a share under a pooling transaction, 50% higher than the 26 cents a share it would have returned under purchase accounting.

WorldCom, in effect, wants the British company to swap its 20% stake in MCI for a 10% stake in WorldCom-MCI - or sell that stake on the open market, giving WorldCom an opportunity to acquire the shares. If BT balks and insists on keeping 20% of MCI, accounting rules would prevent WorldCom from using pooling-of-interest accounting to purchase MCI.

While Wall Street has applauded WorldCom's proposal, the company said in the SEC documents that earnings in a combined WorldCom-MCI would be substantially higher over the next few years in a pooling-of-interests transaction.

Joseph Howell, a senior vice president at WorldCom, yesterday said, 'We are viewing this as a purchase-accounting transaction, but if the three negotiated a settlement, if (it's) possible to do a pooling, it would be more attractive.'

Spokesmen for MCI and BT declined to comment.

[08] Danish government forecasts faster than expected GDP growth

The Danish economics ministry forecast a 3.3% rise in GDP on the year in 1997, up from an estimate in August of 3.1%. At the same time, it trimmed its estimate for 1998 GDP growth to 2.8% from a previously forecast 3.0%.

'The suggested tightening means that the Danish economy will remain on track,' said Marianne Jelved, Denmark's economics minister, in the ministry's October economic report.

The current account surplus forecast was drastically cut to 5.8 billion crowns this year from its previous forecast of 9.5 billion, but the estimate for next year was left virtually unchanged at 10.3 billion crowns.

Jelved said the government's new fiscal measures presented to parliament will reduce GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points in 1998. The measures, which include a mandatory pension scheme and spending cuts of 2 billion kroner ($298.9 million), are aimed at curbing soaring private consumption and preventing the economy from overheating.

The economics ministry boosted its estimate for 1997 growth in private consumption to 4.1% from a former forecast of only 2.9% in August. In 1998, after the new fiscal measures take effect, private consumption is seen increasing 2.5%, down from a former estimate of 2.8%. The economics ministry's forecasts reflect the initiation of the proposed fiscal tightening.

However, the ruling minority government will have to negotiate with opposition parties over the new measures along with the remainder of its 1998 draft budget.

[09] Russian Duma says government failed to meet budget targets and worsened economy

Despite calls by Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin for conciliation and dialogue, legislators voted 380-0 for the measure, which blasted the government for failing to fulfill the 1997 budget and worsening the country's economic situation.

Chernomyrdin denounced the call for a no-confidence motion, warning that it would destabilize the country and threaten hopes for economic recovery.

Communist leaders, who formally filed for the motion Tuesday, refused to give in, blasting the government's performance and calling for a radical change in economic policy. The no-confidence motion is expected to come before the Duma next Wednesday or Thursday.

The sharpening conflict between the Duma and the government bodes ill for the 1998 budget, up for debate Thursday.

No major faction in the Duma supports the plan, which is the centerpiece of the government's economic program. Cabinet officials have said they would be satisfied if the Duma voted to reject the draft but set up a special conference committee to draft changes.

Wednesday, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov rejected that option, calling for returning the budget to the government for a major overhaul.

Government officials have said this would draw out the budget process, meaning the plan wouldn't pass until next year.

But with opposition legislators pushing for a vote of no confidence, there was little sign that the Duma would compromise with the government.

Even if it passed next week, the no-confidence vote would be non-binding. Only if a second no-confidence motion were passed within three months would the constitution require the president either replace the Cabinet or call new parliamentary elections.

[10] Stena Line turnaround will save $46 million a year

The intention is to introduce an organization based on the Swedish shipping group's ferry routes, which will mean a greater focus on the profits and quality of the individual routes and a decentralization of commercial decisions to a local and regional level, Stena Line said.

The company will also integrate the various sales divisions and from 1998 will have one joint sales and marketing organization for the passenger operation and the freight services.

All freight and travel services will in the future be sold under the Stena Line name, while the Lion Ferry brand name will disappear.

In all, the group will take better advantage of the potential for economies of scale, apart from marketing and sales also in purchasing and administration.

Also, Stena Line will co-ordinate the routines for the procurement of yard capacity for docking, as well as for vessel operation and maintenance, both in Scandinavia and internationally.

[11] De Beers expects downturn in Asian sales but expects US business to compensate

'There is a concern that the (Asian) market is looking less good than what we had hoped it would be at this stage,' said Tim Capon, executive director at the Central Selling Organisation, De Beers' London-based marketing arm.

In an interview, Capon blamed the protracted turmoil in Southeast Asian currency markets and Japan's eroding economy for the company's strong expectations of a poorer sales performance in the region.

Asia, including Japan, represents roughly 26% of De Beers' global sales of polished gems.

Capon declined to reveal any preliminary estimates of the anticipated shortfall, saying it is 'a little early to get a precise reading of the situation.'

The downturn will almost certainly be worse than the half-year mark to June 30, when declining retail demand in Japan was De Beers' main concern in the region.

But De Beers' bleak Asian fortunes may be offset by continued sturdy buying growth from U.S. consumers, Capon said.

He described the U.S. market - which contributes roughly one-third of the company's global sales - as 'very strong.' But he cautioned a full picture would emerge only after the month-long sales period between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day, when De Beers typically gains 40% of its annual sales.

U.S. retail analysts are predicting an 'extremely strong Christmas' for diamond sales, Capon said.

Turning to De Beers' long-running attempt to secure a new diamond selling pact with Russia, Capon said he is hopeful that a signing deadline of Oct. 21 will be met.

A draft agreement is currently being 'fine-tuned', he said.

Achieving approval from various Russian government structures in the past few months, including the signed endorsement of President Boris Yeltsin, had cleared roadblocks to an eventually agreement, Capon said.

Its final acceptance has been held up numerous times by interference from Russian officials and legal challenges to the right of Almzy Rossii Sakha, the country's main diamond producer, to negotiate a pact with De Beers.

'I'm sufficiently cautious to know not to expect (a final agreement) until the document is in front of you,' Capon said. _Michael Wang, Dow Jones Newswires, London_

[12] Danone in advanced talks over sale of non-core units

An official for the company, confirming earlier newspaper reports, said several possible suitors for part of Danone's pasta, sauce and prepared meals operations are holding talks with the company. The official said she could give no more details because the negotiations are yet to be completed, but stressed there was more than one potential buyer for what would only be part of Danone's 'grocery' division.

She added that the sales talks are in line with Danone's strategy, announced earlier this year, of concentrating on developing its fresh food, biscuits and drinks business in France and abroad, and, in particular, in building Danone as an international brand. French newspapers have speculated this week that the industrial wing of France's Banque Paribas will acquire Danone's pasta, sauce and prepared meals business.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for Elite Industries, an Israeli confectioner, refused to amplify on other reports that his company and Danone plan to set up a joint candy-making subsidiary that will begin operating in January 1998.

He said Elite is negotiating with several large foreign concerns, including Danone, and will report new developments if they happen. The negotiations aren't necessarily about setting up a joint candy-making subsidiary, the spokesman said. A Danone spokesman wasn't immediately available for comment.

According to the Maariv newspaper, the two companies are working on a plan that would give Danone 20% of a joint company valued at $200 million, with an option to acquire up to 50%. Elite would control the company with 80% of its equity and an option to narrow its holdings to 50%, the report said. The company would be separate from the rest of Elite's activities, the newspaper said.

[13] Boeing wins $1.3 billion order from Turkish Airlines

The firm orders, which have a value of $1.33 billion, call for deliveries from 1998 through 2002, a Boeing spokesman said.

The contract has been hotly contested by rival Airbus Industrie. An Airbus spokesman declined to comment on Boeing's announcement.

Boeing's valuation of the order assumes an approximate $51 million price for each plane, Boeing said. And part of the transaction includes an approximately $384 million 'offset' transaction in which Turkish Aircraft Industries will build parts for the plane, a person familiar with the situation said.

But that figure 'is subject to further discussion,' he said. The 737-800 model is scheduled to make its maiden flight next year.

[14] Huels plans $1.1 billion Asian expansion

In 2001, Huels aims to make 20% of its sales in Asia, compared with last year's 11%, when sales in Asia reached 1.167 billion marks of a total 10.54 billion marks, said Alfred Oberholz, Huels' head of Asian strategic development. In 1996, sales in Asia were 11% of Huels' global sales of 10.3 billion marks, Oberholz said. He added that the investment figure represented 30% of the company's planned investments worldwide over the next five years.

Most of Huels' Asian sales come from its silicone wafer division which brought in revenue of 499 million marks last year, but the company expects to expand its sales of olefin-derivatives after 2000 as a result of planned production capacity in the region.

Oberholz expects Huels to sign a letter of intent by the end of 1997 with undisclosed suppliers and buyers for an oxo-alcohols and plasticizer plant in South Korea. The plant, which would have a capacity of 100,000-200,000 metric tons a year, would begin production in three to three-and-a-half years, he said.

He said its planned investments included wafer fabrication plants in Malaysia and Taiwan, a silicon plant in South Korea and chemical plants in Thailand, Singapore and South Korea. Outlining the new Huels group, which is undergoing a major restructuring, Oberholz said greater attention will be given to Asia in order to have a truly global presence.

MEMC has production facilities in China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia, and recently spent $200 million on a production line for 300- millimetre wafers in Japan and $300 million for another in Malaysia.

Turning to its chemical business, where Huels does not have any manufacturing facilities in Asia, several projects are on the drawing board. Oberholtz said a Huels unit, Olefinchemie, is close to signing a letter of intent with a South Korean company to build a plasticizer plant there.

[15] Bouygues posts first half profit of $89.3 million

Separately, the French construction company's highest officer was placed under formal examination on Monday in connection with an investigation into a system of false billing through which he and others allegedly had home repairs done cheaply.

Martin Bouygues, president and director-general of Bouygues' board of directors, was among 22 people placed under examination in the case, which authorities have been looking into since June last year. Patrick Leleu, head of the Bouygues Telecom unit, and Patrick Le Lay, who heads the television station TF1 were also among the 22 people subject to the inquiry.

Investigators allege the system of false billing was run through the firm Master Build, which carried out work at Bouygues' headquarters in Saint- Quentin-en-Yvelines, west of Paris.

The president of Master Build, Eric Jeiger, is a former Bouygues official. Between 1993 and January 1995, a number of Bouygues executives allegedly benefited from home repairs by Master Build subcontractors. Sources close to the investigation, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it appeared that Master Build overpriced bills for work at Bouygues headquarters to cover costs. The alleged false billing amounted to 14 million francs.

Judge Yves Madre placed Martin Bouygues under formal examination for abuse of public funds. Messrs. Le Lay and Leleu were placed under investigation for receiving public funds.

[16] Dexia announces first half profit of $355.4 million

The comparable figures for 1996 are pro-forma, as Dexia - which groups municipal lenders Credit Communale de Belgique and Credit Local de France - was only formed in October 1996. The group said the hike in profit 'immediately shows the added value' of the alliance.

Net banking income for the group jumped to 46.5 billion Belgium francs from 42.6 billion Belgium francs - or to 7.6 billion French francs from 7.1 billion French francs - in the year-ago period, boosted by, amongst other things, a jump in revenues, gains from stock market activities and increased income from financial operations.

Dexia co-Chief Executive Pierre Richard told a news conference in Paris that 'today's figures show that the Dexia group is in excellent health.' 'Taking into account the fundamental improvement in our activity and profitability we can bank on double-digit net profit growth for the full year,' Richard said.

But Richard declined to give an exact earnings forecast, saying that extraordinary gains had contributed to the good first half results, and there would be none in the second six months to boost earnings. Richard said Dexia plans to expand its profitable private banking business, and is on the lookout for acquisitions to that end.

'We are doing very well, our profitability is very good. However, we think we need to grow in size,' he added. 'There will have to be external growth (in private banking) if we want to expand,' he said.

'These results are very good,' said Gert de Mesure, analyst at Delen Bank in Antwerp. He said the market would be watching for concrete signs of further foreign expansion after Dexia made international expansion a key aim for 1997.

Net earnings per share at Dexia Belgium for the first half were 196.1 Belgium francs, while Dexia France's net EPS were 29.15 French francs, compared with 23.62 French francs in the year earlier period.

Dexia Belgium was only floated on the Brussels bourse last November.

[17] Thyssen, Krupp near deal on Thailand plant

A Thyssen spokeswoman said the details published in a report in today's edition of German newspaper Handelsblatt are correct.

However, she declined to elaborate on the newspaper story. 'The facts in the (Handelsblatt) report aren't wrong, but they didn't come from Thyssen or from Krupp...and a lot can still happen in two weeks,' she said.

Officials at Krupp weren't available to comment.

Krupp Uhde is a subsidiary of Krupp Hoesch-Krupp, and Thyssen Rheinstahl is a subsidiary of Thyssen.

The two units are scheduled to sign a letter of intent October 21 to build a petrochemical plant in Thailand, according to the newspaper report.

The two companies will build the plant for Songkhla Petroleum & Chemical Co., a unit of Thailand's Sukhothai Petroleum, the newspaper said.

[18] Corporate and Economic Briefs

Italy's government is preparing a new regional tax in a move to simplify the country's complex tax system and give regions more financial autonomy from Rome. The Imposta Regionale Sulle Attivita Produttive, if approved by the government on Friday, is meant to substitute six existing levies - with an overall rate of around 4.2%, according to press reports. Finance ministry officials declined to comment on the tax.

Russian Premier Viktor Chernomyrdin tried to calm a hostile parliament with talk of compromise, but lawmakers showed no signs of backing down from a threatened no-confidence vote in the government. Chernomyrdin's speech to parliament's lower house, or State Duma, was part of the government's effort to win support for key economic reforms that include new tax laws, expanded property ownership and the 1998 budget.

Czech 12-month consumer inflation broke through the 10% level in September to its highest point in two years, but analysts said there were positive signs in the data that bode well for the coming months. The Czech Statistical Bureau released data on showing monthly inflation in September was 0.6%, putting the year-on-year rate at 10.3%, the first time CPI has been above 10% since May 1995.

Swedish tobacco company Swedish Match said it has signed a joint venture agreement with Turkish match maker Kav Orman to develop the production of matches, lighters and tobacco in Turkey, Azerbejdzjan, Kirgisistan, and Turkmenistan. A new joint company will be set up in Turkey in which Swedish Match will have a 60% stake and Kav a 40% stake. Kav will transfer its match manufacturing operations to the new company.

Electricite de France, the French state-owned electric company, said that it had paid $79.75 million for a 55% stake in a previously government-owned electric company in Krakow, Poland, Elektrocieplownia Krakow. EDF said that this is the first privatization of an electricity company in Poland.

Seasonally adjusted August US wholesale sales fell 1.1% to $208.77 billion, as the sale of motor vehicles, automotive equipment, machinery and other durable goods declined, the Commerce Department said. August wholesale sales were 3.0% higher than a year earlier. The August decline in wholesale sales followed a revised 0.1% gain in July to $211.04 billion. That gain was previously reported as 0.5%. The last time sales dropped more than 1.1% on a month-on-month basis was in June 1993, when it fell 1.3%, Commerce said.

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