European Business News (EBN), 97-05-28

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From: The European Business News Server at <http://www.ebn.co.uk/>

Page last updated Wed, May 28 6:41 PM CET

CONTENTS

[01] French markets tumble on threat of Socialist victory

[02] Chirac warns of dangers of Socialist win

[03] Bonn orders Deutsche Telekom to offer direct access to its competitors by June 4th

[04] Daimler expects substantial profit and sales gains this year

[05] NEC in $1 billion Chinese joint venture

[06] Guinness defends its stake in joint ventures with LVMH

[07] U.S. and E.U. reach breakthrough pact on testing and inspection standards

[08] US April durable goods rise by 1.4%, slightly stronger than expected

[09] Russia predicts its inflation rate will slow to single-digit figures within 12 months

[10] Allianz sees double digit growth this year

[11] Thorn posts flat profit, plans $142 million buy-back

[12] Gazprom says its 1996 pretax profit was $7.8 billion

[13] Germany's trade surplus widens unexpectedly

[14] Ciba Specialty Chemicals first quarter sales rise 19%

[15] French manufacturing strong except in auto industry

[16] Fortis posts 30% rise in first quarter net profit

[17] Corporate and Economic Briefs

[18] World News Briefs

[01] French markets tumble on threat of Socialist victory

At its lowest point the CAC-40 index of most actively traded French stocks dropped 4.4%, trading at 2561.23 points.

The French exchange closed at 2583.17, down 97.17 points, or 3.6%, recovering slightly from its intraday low of 2561.23. The index is up 11.55% since the beginning of the year. Volume was very heavy with FF12.05 billion worth of shares traded.

The French stock market began its tumble shortly after three separate polls circulated through the market. Traders said the three polls showed the leftists taking between 318 and 336 seats in the final round of legislative elections.

Today's intraday low of 4.4% exceeded Monday's 3.9% fall. Monday's fall, following the first round of voting which put the combined left ahead of the ruling centre-right coalition, was the biggest drop in four years.

Analysts say the stock market fears a Socialist-led government that would make it harder for private companies to lay off staff and slow down France's privatisation programme.

Market watchers are predicting that the Paris Bourse could fall to 2,450-2, 500 points if the left win on Sunday.

French Treasury bonds and bond futures also fell on the poll reports, they also weighed slightly on the French franc, but pressure was limited.

A televised speech by President Jacques Chirac yesterday, in which he warned French people of the danger of returning to Socialism, failed to impress the market.

[02] Chirac warns of dangers of Socialist win

'France cannot change course at just any time without taking serious risks, ' Chirac said.

Meanwhile, Socialist leader Lionel Jospin has made it clear that if the left wins, further austerity measures will not be forthcoming should France fall short of the Maastricht budget deficit criteria. Jospin has also promised that the Socialists would conduct an audit of public finances if they win the election, in which the combined left took the lead on the first round last Sunday.

A runoff election this Sunday will decide the outcome. For the right, it's an uphill battle to persuade voters that free-market reforms and more austerity will help battle record 12.8% unemployment. Chirac was elected two years ago with joblessness his main issue.

Though French law bans the public release of opinion polls from a week before the elections begin, three French banks said their private polls predict the left will win.

The French stock market was down over 4% in midday trading on news of the polls and fears the left would slow down the conservatives' economic reforms and ambitious privatization campaign.

And while a left-wing victory is the greatest worry among analysts, there is also concern that a wafer-thin majority of the French centre-right, led by the newly converted EMU supporter Phillipe Seguin, would be less committed to a strict application of Maastricht critiera.

Therefore flexibility in the interpreation of Maastricht is likely to become all the rage, particularly given Bonn's own resort to fiscal gimmickry. It is still unclear whether Germany's plan, intended to slash its budget deficit by revaluing its gold reserves at market prices, will be allowed under European accounting rules. At a minimum, analysts say it has badly tarnished Germany's credibility and weakened its bargaining position over who will join the euro in 1999.

'Our German friends, who are so rigorous about the criteria, are looking to see if they can't fudge things,' Jospin told French radio. To qualify for the euro, France needs to cut its budget deficit from last year's 4.2% to 3% this year.

[03] Bonn orders Deutsche Telekom to offer direct access to its competitors by June 4th

Rivals of the German telecommunications company have lodged a complaint with regulatory authorities that Telekom - which still has a monopoly on telephone lines - was not offering them direct access to customers.

Telekom so far is offering competitors only a package deal for access to links between local switches and customers, but the competitors say they are being overcharged.

Post Minister Wolfgang Boetsch said he has told Telekom it must make an offer for access to the so-called 'last mile' lines by June 4.

Telekom rivals are gearing up for the liberalization of the German telecommunications market on Jan. 1, 1998.

Deutsche Telekom was partly privatized last November. The German government still holds a 75% stake, but plans to divest another tranche of shares this year.

Until then, Telekom will keep its monopoly on access to end customers in the fixed-line telephone network.

[04] Daimler expects substantial profit and sales gains this year

In 1996, group operating profit was 2.4 billion Deutsche marks ($1.4 billion). Chairman Jeurgen Schrempp said sales for the year as a whole should be significantly higher than last year's 106.34 billion marks ($62.5 billion). In the first four months of 1997, Daimler said group sales jumped 15% to 36.3 billion marks. All of Daimler's major divisions showed sales gains.

Schrempp also repeated his belief that Daimler will be able to achieve its goal of 12% return on capital employed within two years. To reach that goal, group operating profit will need to at least double from 1996's 2.4 billion marks.

'Daimler is now active in (business) areas where we can achieve healthy growth from within and which are marked by high earnings potential,' Schrempp said. He also said that the company's sweeping reorganisation should result in a 40% in management efficiency by the end of 1997.

Earlier this year Daimler legally ended its Mercedes-Benz AG car and truck division, bringing it into a group structure.

The move was designed to speed up decision-making and streamline what many analysts believed to be an unwieldy management structure.

Referring to the sales gains so far this year, Daimler said all of its major divisions showed gains.

Sales of Mercedes' passenger cars were up 14% , while Mercedes' commercial vehicle sales rose 15%.

The company cited 'positive developments' in truck sales in the North American Free Trade Agreement region and van sales in Europe. Daimler didn't mention whether sales of heavy trucks in Europe, which have been lower for the past couple of years, had improved.

Revenues at aerospace division DASA surged 39% due to rising sales of commercial and military aircraft, satellites and aerospace engines, Daimler said. The stronger dollar also helped lift revenues, the company said without being more specific.

At Debis, Daimler's financial services, computer software and telecommunications division, sales climbed 17% to 4.7 billion marks in the first four months.

[05] NEC in $1 billion Chinese joint venture

NEC and its Chinese partner, Shanghai Hua Hong, would form the joint venture company in July to design, manufacture and market semiconductors using NEC's latest chip technology, an NEC spokesman said.

The new company will be located in the Pudong district of Shanghai and is expected to see investment of around $1 billion and to be capitalized at $700 million. NEC and its affiliate, NEC (China) Co., will put up 27% of the capital, and Shanghai Hua Hong the rest.

The new company will have a maximum capacity of 20,000 eight-inch wafers a month and is scheduled to achieve full production in the first half of 1999.

[06] Guinness defends its stake in joint ventures with LVMH

The comments were in response to LVMH's previously reported announcement that it plans to buy out the Guinness stakes. LVMH said joint venture contracts between the two companies include clauses which allow LVMH to take control of the distribution collaborations at asset value if there are changes to the ownership structure of Guinness involving a competitor. LVMH currently holds a 14% stake in Guinness.

But Guinness counter-claimed that its rights and obligations under the companies' various joint venture agreements would be unaffected by the merger.

'Guinness will continue to explore opportunities for further cooperation with Moet Hennessy,' the firm said.

Earlier, LVMH reiterated its opposition to the merger, which would create GMG Brands, a food and drinks giant worth more than £20 billion ($32.6 billion). By buying Guinness' stakes in their joint ventures, the French drinks group said it would have the right under existing agreements to market and distribute Guinness brands in key markets such as China, Japan, France and the U.S. for at least 10 years.

Guinness and Grand Metropolitan shares moved lower on news of the plan, which could prove an obstacle to the merger between Guinness and GrandMet. Shares in Guinness are 18 pence lower at 578 pence and GrandMet shares are 15.5 pence lower at 581 pence. However, the trader thought market worries are overdone.

'The risk on Guinness/GrandMet seems to be on the upside. We think it's going to happen,' he said.

[07] U.S. and E.U. reach breakthrough pact on testing and inspection standards

While U.S. and European regulatory agencies will continue to have final word on what can be sold in their countries, the prospective accord could avoid double-testing on both sides of the Atlantic and consequently cut costs.

Overall, trade in five categories, valued at nearly $50 billion a year, will be affected by the accord, which still requires formal approval by the European governments and was not be signed along with other accords at today's U.S.-European Union session attended by President Clinton.

The five categories are telecommunications equipment, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, information technology and recreational equipment.

'The FDA has not given anything up. ... It can still do its own inspections, ' a senior U.S. official said in outlining the results of negotiations led by U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and European Union representative Lord Leon Brittan.

However, as the US and Europe begin to accept each others' procedures for certifying products, the cost of producing them can be reduced about 10%, said the official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity.

Two summit agreements being signed by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Dutch Foreign Minister Hans van Mierlo would deepen cooperation in combatting customs fraud and the smuggling of chemicals used in drug production.

The agreements come amid soaring two-way trade. Overall trade between the United States and European Union has almost doubled since 1988, reaching some $550 billion a year.

[08] US April durable goods rise by 1.4%, slightly stronger than expected

New factory orders for durables rose to an adjusted $175.56 billion last month, bouncing back from a revised 2.2% decline in March. The March drop was previously reported as 2.6%.

The April increase in durable goods orders was slightly stronger than analysts had expected. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of 21 economists found an average estimated a 1.0% rise in April durable goods orders.

Durable goods data is not adjusted for inflation.

Orders for transportation equipment posted a 4.5% increase, with all categories except railroad equipment rising, Commerce said. It was the fourth straight monthly increase in transportation orders.

Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods orders rose 0.5% in April.

Orders for industrial machinery, which includes computers, rose 2.2%, while orders for primary metals increased 2.8%

Orders for electronic and other electrical equipment fell 5.3%, the second straight drop.

[09] Russia predicts its inflation rate will slow to single-digit figures within 12 months

Prime Minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, says he expects a level of between 5 and 8%. In December, inflation year-on-year was down from 22% to 12%. Mr Chernomyrdin also said he expects gross domestic product growth of 2% next year.

But, he's warning that the economy is still in danger due to non-payments and delays in wage payments which date back months.

However, the generally brighter economic outlook comes as Russia agrees a liason deal with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development that has taken it a step closer to the development of a proper market economy.

The Russian Foreign Minister, Yevgeny Primakov, signed the agreement which will guide the country through the liberalisation reforms it needs before it can be admitted to the OECD.

[10] Allianz sees double digit growth this year

Releasing detailed earnings data at its annual press conference, the company also said it would post a break even in its underwriting account this year. That would follow a 148 million marks ($87 million) loss in 1996, improved from a 685 million ($402.9 million) loss in 1995.

In addition, Allianz foresees 'moderate double digit percentage growth' in its 1997 profit, after posting a net profit of 2.24 billion marks ($1.31 billion) in 1996, up from 2.02 billion marks ($1.18 billion) in 1995.

Meanwhile, the company said it would step up its efforts in the alternative risk transfer business, establishing a separate company to offer insurance for industrial companies seeking protection from market and financial risks.

The company will be located in Zurich, with base capital of 500 million Swiss francs ($357 million).

[11] Thorn posts flat profit, plans $142 million buy-back

However, post-exceptional profit fell 28.5% to £102.9 million from £144 million in the previous year. Thorn's exceptional costs of £50 million comprised of a £32.9 million provision for U.K. property lease costs, and a £17.1 million provision for U.S. litigation costs.

The group said current trading remained difficult and it expected further impact on its overseas earnings from the strength of sterling.

Chairman Sir Colin Southgate said the company had decided to return value to shareholders because of Thorn's investment needs and the strength of its financial position.

'The proposals will enhance earnings per share whilst maintaining prudent financial ratios and the flexibility to finance future growth,' he said.

Finance director Steve Marshall said the share buy-back would enhance earnings per share on a proforma basis by 12% over a 12 month period.

Southgate said the proposed cash return to investors, soon after the annual meeting in July, represented 14.3% of Thorn's market capitalisation. He said for every 7 existing ordinary shares, shareholders will receive 6 new ordinary shares and 7 'B' shares.

'Taking account of Thorn's near-term investment needs and the strength of its financial position, the board has concluded that it is now appropriate to return value to shareholders,' said Southgate. 'The proposals will enhance earnings per share whilst maintaining prudent financial ratios and the flexibility to finance future growth.'

He said the group, which had suffered falling sales in the United States, as well as problems with Radio Rentals in Britain, faced a challenging year.

Thorn has already taken action on a number of fronts, including the closure of 90 Radio Rentals stores in the UK. 'Further intitiatives will be implemented in the period ahead,' the chairman said.

[12] Gazprom says its 1996 pretax profit was $7.8 billion

But there was bad news for foreign investors as a local news agency said that Russian President Boris Yeltsin will soon sign a decree under which foreign investors who bypassed restrictions and bought shares in natural gas giant RAO Gazprom on the local market will be forced to sell those shares within three months.

Tass, quoting an unnamed government source, said the order will apply even to organizations which are formally Russia-based but are owned or otherwise controlled by foreign investors. Until the end of 1999, foreign investors will need the approval of the Federal Commission on Securities in order to buy Gazprom shares on the domestic market.

As for the profit figures the Gazprom spokesman was unable to say to what accounting standards the profit figures were calculated and whether they were calculated on the same basis as 1995 results released by Gazprom, which showed pretax profit to international IAS standards at 19.64 trillion roubles. AK&M securities specialists said on Tuesday Gazprom 1995 pretax profit was 38.37 trillion roubles but did not specify the accounting standards.

[13] Germany's trade surplus widens unexpectedly

The March current account swung to a surplus of 2.3 billion marks from a 1.4 billion marks deficit in February. The deficit was revised from a previously reported 1.5 billion marks. For the first quarter of 1997, Germany's trade surplus was 24.3 billion marks, up from 19.2 billion marks a year ago.

The current account deficit for the quarter was 9.3 billion marks compared with a 1.4 billion mark deficit in the year-ago period, the statistics agency reported. Both the German March trade surplus and current account surplus figures were higher than analysts had expected.

A survey of economists by Dow Jones News Services brought estimates for a March trade surplus of 7.9 billion marks and a current account surplus of 200 million marks.

[14] Ciba Specialty Chemicals first quarter sales rise 19%

In original currencies, sales rose 4%. Sales growth in Swiss francs was supported by favorable exchange rates. Strong volume growth was tempered to some extent by price adjustments in several markets, the company said.

For 1997, Ciba expects a strong improvement in its operating profit before restructuring expenses. Ciba expects a charge of about 250 swiss francs million to 300 million swiss francs this year, related to its spin-off from Novartis. For 1996, Switzerland's Ciba reported an increase in net profit to 311 million swiis francs from 305 million a year earlier.

Operating profit was also slightly higher at 501 million swiss francs compared with 499 million.

As announced previously, restructuring charges of 1.08 million swiss francs were recorded against 1996 results. Including these charges, Ciba posted a net loss of 827 million swiss francs in 1996.

Ciba attributed the low rise in operating profit to a 17% increase in corporate and other expenses allocated to Ciba from Novartis. Upon its independence, however, Ciba significantly restructured and streamlined its corporate organization, the company said.

In the company's additives division, sales in the latest first quarter rose 13% to 587 million swiss francs.

Consumer care sales rose 23% to 289 million swiss francs, sales of performance polymers rose 22% to 386 million swiss francs.

Also, pigment sales posted an increase of 20% to 320 million swiss francs and sales of textile dyes rose 22% to 332 million swiss francs.

[15] French manufacturing strong except in auto industry

The survey, conducted by the national statistics institute found business leaders' personal perspectives on output suggesting a continuation of this trend at individual enterprises in coming months, but their general perspective for industry in coming months was for a slight further decline in industrial output.

The survey found industry executives view order books little changed over recent months, but overall above average. Foreign order books were slightly more full than previously and overall at very high levels, while inventory levels were judged to be below normal.

Perspectives on the potential for price increases improved very slightly, but overall remained mediocre, Insee said.

[16] Fortis posts 30% rise in first quarter net profit

The company also said its recent acquisition of merchant bank MeesPierson, acquired from Dutch bank ABN AMRO Holding had an 'immediate positive contribution' to overall results which was higher than expected.

Regarding the year under progress, Fortis said it expects a 10% to 15% rise in net profit and in earnings per share at Fortis and its two parent companies. Previously the group had said it expected 'higher' results in 1997.

For the first quarter, Fortis said total revenue increased to 5.25 billion ECU, from 4.84 billion ECU in the same period a year earlier. Net profit at Fortis' Dutch parent company, Fortis Amev, was up to 224 million guilders, from 171 million guilders in the first quarter of 1996. This corresponds to 1.23 guilders per share of Fortis Amev, up from 0.94 guilders in the first quarter of 1996.

Net profit at Fortis, the company's Belgian parent, increased to 3.97 billion Belgian francs, from 2.73 billion francs the year earlier. Per share of Fortis AG, this amounts to 95 francs, up from 73 in the first quarter of 1996.

Meanwhile, the results were higher than some analysts expected. In Amsterdam at 0956 GMT, shares of Fortis Amev are trading 1.20 guilders, or 1.5%, higher at 82.70 guilders, whilthe AEX index was up 0.9%.

Shares in Fortis are up 120 francs, or 1.7%, at 7040 francs mid-morning in Europe after touching an earlier high of 7200 francs. Traders said the share is performing well because of the good results and on the back of a surge in European insurance issues.

[17] Corporate and Economic Briefs

Carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen has lowered its estimate for the French car market to 1.85 million sales this year, a 13% fall from 2.13 million in 1996. The market has been weak since the expiry on September 30 of a state new-cars-for-old rebate scheme, which bolstered 1996 sales. The PSA group's previous estimate for the French market for 1997 was 1.87 million car sales.

U.K. utility, Anglian Water unveiled an agreed £19.5 million ($31.8 million) takeover bid for Hartlepool Water, and posted a pretax profit of £208 million. Earnings are down from £238.6 million a year earlier and below expectations for a profit of around £240 million. Hartlepool said Anglian was paying 266 pence cash for each share in the target firm with a loan note alternative. Anglian will offer price cuts of 5% to Hartlepool customers from April 2001.

Williams Holdings, the U.K. security, fire-protection and home improvement concern, said Wednesday first-quarter trading conditions were positive, 'with all divisions showing growth in sales and profits.' It said it has begun the integration of Chubb Security, which was completed April 28, and that its findings 'have confirmed our original judgment on both the quality and potential of the business.'

Bankinter plans to offer a 3-for-1 stock split, a spokesman for the Spanish bank confirmed Wednesday. Bankinter is Spain's sixth largest bank in terms of assets. According to the bank's spokesman, the decision to offer a stock split will be approved at the June 26 shareholders meeting. A Bankinter press release stated that the bank's stock split will lower the nominal value of the stock to 500 pesetas per share. The share's current nominal value stands at 1,500 pesetas.

Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok said Western Europe and its North American allies should join forces to back a new 'Marshall Plan' to support the economic regeneration of Eastern Europe. French Socialist leader _Lionel Jospin and his German counterpart, Social Democrat chief Oskar Lafontaine, urged the creation of a European 'employment pact' to reduce joblessness.

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, hailing the 50th anniversary of the Marshall Plan, said that Washington was keen to see the European Union expand as rapidly and widely as possible.

[18] World News Briefs

The Taleban Islamic militia captured the strategic northeastern opposition-held town of Pul-i-Khumri in Baghlan province, witnesses said. The town, on the main highway from the capital Kabul to northern Afghanistan via the Salang Pass, was first taken by new Taleban recruits from Baghlan. A Taleban convoy rolled into the town later.

A Jerusalem magistrate has convicted a right-wing extremist of incitement for placing a curse of death on Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin two weeks before his assassination. Rabin was shot and killed by Yigal Amir, an ultra- nationalist Jew, during a November 1995 peace rally.

Burundi's military leader Maj. Pierre Buyoya travelled to Rwanda to discuss worsening violence in his country and efforts to hold talks between the Tutsi-led military and Hutu rebels. Before Buyoya left for Kigali in neighboring Rwanda, an independent radio station reported an attack Tuesday by Hutu rebels outside Bujumbura. Quoting military sources, Studio Ijambo said one soldier was killed and another wounded and an unspecified number of rebels killed at Muhuta, 31 kilometres (19 miles) south of Bujumbura.

A Hong Kong TV conglomerate has said it will go to the U.S. Supreme Court if necessary to fight a $125.5 million award handed down against it by a jury in Denver, Colorado. The Denver District Court ruled last month that Wharf Cable reneged on an oral agreement to allow a Denver company to take a 10% stake in it.

Two people were killed and five were wounded when a gasoline tank exploded at a depot in Russia's Ural Mountains region, officials said. One person was missing after the explosion, said the Emergency Situations Ministry branch in the Bashkortostan region, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency.

Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR has reached an agreement giving Iran's OIEC Overseas Ltd a 10% stake in the $2 billion Lenkoran-Talysh Deniz oilfield under the Caspian Sea, a news agency said. Financial details were not released. Interfax also said Germany's Deminex is likely to get a 10% stake in the project, although no deal has been struck. The field has reserves of 700 million barrels of crude oil.

More than 30 people were killed on Tuesday in the Texas town of Jarrell when a single tornado demolished an entire housing estate. At least two other people were killed and many more injured in other parts of the southern U-S state as a series of violent storms ripped through four counties.The twisters tore apart homes, sent cars flying and left a trail of destruction in their wake.

Security blocks remained around the home of Aung San Suu Kyi, the Burmese democracy leader, to stop her party gathering to mark the anniversary of its unrecognised 1990 election win, the military government said.

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