Cyprus PIO: Turkish Cypriot and Turkish Media Review, 15-11-02

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[A] TURKISH CYPRIOT / TURKISH PRESS

[01] AKP makes strong comeback and wins enough seats for a single-party rule

[02] Erdogan evaluated the elections' results: "Turkish vote a reaction to terrorism"

[03] Davutoglu: "This victory is not ours but that of our nation and our citizens"

[04] CHP disappointed after barely increased vote rate

[05] HDP says unfair election conditions, deliberate polarization behind poll result

[06] MHP leader rules out internal turmoil after defeat

[07] Turkish lira surges to 2.78 against US dollar after AK Party victory

[08] "Two different Turkeys in five months"

[09] "How did the EU contribute to authoritarianization in Turkey?"

[10] AKP came first in the occupied area of Cyprus as well

[11] Akinci: November's meetings will focus mainly on the property issue

[12] Akinci is reportedly cautiously optimistic on the Cyprus problem

[13] Turkish daily reportedly writes that the two sides have reached to a "historic agreement on the citizenship issue"

[14] Erhurman: Turkey started developing strategies by which it will dominate over the entire island

[15] Ozgurgun and Tatar will compete for the UBP leadership on a second round

[16] CTP attended the Socialist International meeting in Spain

[17] The occupation regime attends the WTM tourism fair in London

[A] TURKISH CYPRIOT / TURKISH PRESS

[01] AKP makes strong comeback and wins enough seats for a single-party rule

The seats in the national assembly will still be occupied by four parties, but the AKP has seen a sharp rise in its share, raising the chances of it making a constitutional amendment that would pave the way for a transition to a presidential system in line with the ambitions of its founding leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The AKP secured around 49.48% of the vote, giving it 317 seats in the 550-member parliament, according to results with all ballots counted. For a constitutional change at parliament in favour of the presidential system in line with Erdogan's aspirations, the AKP needed to win 367 seats, though 330 seats would be enough to take the issue to a referendum.

The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) encountered a considerable disappointment, as it only managed to slightly improve on its June 7 performance, getting around 25.31% and 134 seats.

Both the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Kurdish problem-focused Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) lost a considerable number of votes. The HDP, which got 13.2% of the votes in June, again managed to cross the 10% election threshold to get representation in parliament, but only by a narrow margin. HDP got 10.75% and 59 seats.

The MHP's loss was even sharper, dropping to 11.9% from 16% in June, apparently losing a sizable chunk of support to the AKP. MHP got only 40 seats in the parliament.

The results of the vote, which also tested the leadership of Prime Minister and AKP head Ahmet Davutoglu, came as a surprise to most people. The election had been expected to produce a knife-edge result that would require the formation of a coalition government, but enough voters discounted widespread concerns over democracy and freedom in Turkey in favour of stability to bring the AKP back to single-party government.

In the months since June 7, conflict between the security forces and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) was renewed and Turkey has witnessed major attacks staged by jihadists from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The Turkish Lira, meanwhile, has dramatically lost value against the U.S. dollar and the euro. Turkey has been ruled by the AKP's interim government since the June 7 polls, following single-party rule since November 2002 held by the AKP.

In the June 7, 2015 election, the AKP dropped to fewer than 276 seats in parliament, the number needed for a legislative majority. It had aimed for the 330 seats it needed in order to change the constitution without input from other parties and thus pave the way for a new presidential system equipped with more power and fewer checks and balances.

According to the Ankara Anatolia news agency (02.10.15) the final results are the following:

Total polls: 183.518

Total voters: 56.965.099

Votes cast: 48.522.149

Valid votes: 47.837.577

Attendance: 85.18%

AKP: 49.48% - 317 Deputies

CHP: 25.31% - 134 Deputies

MHP: 11.90% - 40 Deputies

HDP: 10.75% - 59 Deputies

Others: 2.56% - No Deputies

Turkish daily Cumhuriyet (02.11.15) publishes the following tables comparing the election results of June 7 with the November 1:

June 7 elections

November 1 elections

Total Voters

56.772.753

56.965.099

Votes cast

47.506.009

48.522.149

Valid Votes

46.160.496

47.837.577

Invalid Votes

[01] 345.513

June 7 elections

November 1 elections

AKP votes

[18] 864.864

[23] 669.933

[11] 518.070

[12] 108.801

[07] 519.168

[05] 691.035

[06] 057.506

[05] 144.108

[01] 223.700

November 1 elections

AKP Deputies

258

317

CHP Deputies

132

134

MHP Deputies

80

40

HDP Deputies

80

59

(DPs)

[02] Erdogan evaluated the elections' results: "Turkish vote a reaction to terrorism"

Speaking after the party he co-founded won enough seats to form a government in the rerun of June's election, Erdogan said that the voters had chosen stability "after five months of violence". "The most important message was given, undoubtedly, to the separatist terrorist organization and the structures under its guidance," Erdogan said in a statement released after the AK Party secured 49 % of the vote. "Our nation on Nov. 1 communicated in a clear manner that pressure, threats and bloodshed cannot co-exist with democracy, national will, law and development", he stated.

Referring to the two opposition parties that could not agree to enter into a coalition with the AK Party following June's vote -- the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) -- Erdogan said the election showed their "long-held uncompromising and vindictive attitudes" during coalition talks, "were not approved by our nation".

[03] Davutoglu: "This victory is not ours but that of our nation and our citizens"

"This victory is not ours [AK Party], but that of our nation and our citizens," Davutoglu said in an address in his hometown in Konya hours after preliminary results put the AK Party ahead of all other parties.

In addition, Davutoglu stated that AKP is to pursue Constitutional changes to enhance the role of the President. "It is obvious that the current system does not meet the Turkey's needs. This shirt is too tight for this country," Davutoglu said.

Although it regained its parliamentary majority on Sunday's election, it appears to be 14 seats short of the number needed to push through a referendum on constitutional reform. However, Davutoglu indicated that this would be a priority during the coming parliament.

[04] CHP disappointed after barely increased vote rate

The leader of the party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, said after the announcement of the initial results that the responsibility on the party's shoulders had increased. "Some 400 people died in this period," he said. "This should be evaluated very carefully."

Responding to a question on whether he would resign, Kilicdaroglu said the executive bodies of the party would decide on the matter, praising the CHP for "bringing democracy to the country."

[05] HDP says unfair election conditions, deliberate polarization behind poll result

The HDP was forced to cancel election rallies following two deadly attacks on pro-Kurdish gatherings since July. Television stations gave party representatives little air-time amid government attacks branding the party as the political wing of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

HDP's co-chairman Selahattin Demirtas told reporters that "there wasn't a fair or equal election... We were not able to lead an election campaign. We tried to protect our people against attacks."

Co-chair Figen Yuksekdag said that HDP would analyse in detail the drop in its support since the last parliamentary election in June, but said the fact the party had crossed the 10 % threshold needed to enter parliament was nonetheless a success. She said the HDP has faced the most challenging circumstances during this process and recalled that 258 civilians, including 33 children, lost their lives during the last five months since the June 7 election. "Yet, today's success was achieved by those who walked against attacks," she said.

Following the vote on Sunday, small clashes broke out in Diyarbakir in the Kurdish southeast between protesters and police.

[06] MHP leader rules out internal turmoil after defeat

Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which categorically rejected any coalition with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) after the June 7 elections, argued it was the AKP which avoided engaging in any coalition partnership.

Bahceli, in a written statement implied that the AKP had managed to get a legislative majority by "triggering social fears" and "using threats and blackmail like weapons."

"Rather than a victory by the AKP, there is a sociological structure who is deterred by terror, annoyed by suicide bombers, dissuaded by economic dangers and whose will is impeded by anti-democratic practices," Bahceli said.

The MHP, a casualty of the rise in AKP support seen in the Nov. 1 polls, saw its share of the vote drop to 12 % from 16.5 % in the June 7 parliamentary election.

According to Bahceli, his party had been subject to all kinds of "plots" from June 7 to Nov. 1 aimed at leaving it below the 10 % election threshold needed to enter parliament. "The Nationalist Movement Party will march on its way with resolved and confident steps without giving concessions from its principles and diverting from its values. Nobody, either from inside or from outside, should make calculations in vain and believe that the Nationalist Movement would fall into a cycle of instability," Bahceli said, vowing his party would continue defending the "legal and historical interests" of Turkey.

[07] Turkish lira surges to 2.78 against US dollar after AK Party victory

The Turkish lira was quoted at 2.78 against the dollar in early trade, up 4.4% from Friday's close of 2.9135. It was the strongest level since mid-August.

[08] "Two different Turkeys in five months"

"[?] The question here is what happened in the last five months that brought about such a dramatic reverse on the political landscape? Although the answer is more about sociology and the socio-economic state of the Turkish people, let's try to frame a political explanation for this.

Multiple developments have happened between the two elections to the advantage of the ruling party.

However, before an assessment on these developments, it should be stressed how the Turkish people became annoyed with growing instability in the country in recent months, which prompted a change in their mind to vote for the ruling party. [?] Therefore, the notion of stability prevailed on Sunday's Nov. 1 elections.

One of the most important differences between the June and November polls is that the latter occurred amid much violence and terror attacks, which Turkey has not witnessed for a very long time. Turkey was rocked with two major terrorist attacks in these five months: one in Suruc in July and the other in Ankara in October, as suicide bombers of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) killed dozens of civilians in the most brutal way. It was in this period the government launched military attacks against the ISIL threat that terrorized the entire nation.

Like ISIL, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) resumption of its violent acts against the Turkish army and the police added additional disturbance to Turkish public opinion. The Turkish army's heavy military engagement against the terrorists in the face of PKK attacks that killed hundreds of security personnel in this period has added additional support from the especially nationalist leaning citizens of Turkey.

Both President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's strongly worded accusations against the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) have apparently received positive reactions from nationalist voters. Therefore, the AKP appeared as the sole political structure that could fight against terrorism and bring about comfort to the country.

On the political level, one of the most important reasons why the AKP could boost its votes is the fact that the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli lost almost all his credit among his grassroots because of its never-ending negative political understanding. The MHP's nationalist and conservative grassroots seemingly did not hesitate to vote for the AKP as they have cut their hopes of their leader.[?]

Only months after its historical victory of a 13 % vote, the HDP, this time, only barely made the 10 % threshold, although it has now become the third party in the parliament. For many, this decline is because conservative Kurds have taken back their support from the HDP for the AKP, due to their disturbance with PKK-led efforts to create cantons and self-autonomous regions in the southeastern Anatolia region.

The PKK's increased terrorist activities also upset and angered these circles accompanied by local entrepreneurs and businessmen who have been suffering because of a growing instability in the region.

The social democrat main opposition party preserved its votes and even increased the number of its seats in the parliament but hardly anyone is content with the results. The Republican People's Party (CHP) pursued a positive and constructive election campaign and even cancelled many of their rallies due to the tragic Ankara bombings. It seems the low-profile election campaign of the CHP did not work to the advantage of the party.

Kemal K?l?cdaroglu, the leader of the CHP, is believed to be frustrated with the results and his leadership will be surely challenged at the upcoming party convention later this year.

[?]

Although the June 7 elections were both free and equal, the conditions of Nov. 1 were much poorer than the previous one. In the last five months, the Turkish media was under growing pressure, with physically violent attacks on independent media outlets and journalists by the pro-government figures and newspapers.

Newspapers and television channels were seized by state institutions only days before the elections, while almost all public and private broadcasters only served the ruling party and the president. State means have also been heavily used by the government. It was under these conditions that the AKP could increase its votes to its 2011 level by garnering every other person's vote.

In sum, it could also be said that two different Turkeys voted in the last five months, whose result would perhaps lead to what the government officials have been long willing for the "new Turkey." We will all together see what this new Turkey will look like."

[09] "How did the EU contribute to authoritarianization in Turkey?"

"[?] The authoritarianization of Turkey is a product of many political and sociological factors. However, a special external factor in Turkey's authoritarian turn is, of course, the European Union. If Turkey is seen as a very authoritarian country today, one must acknowledge the EU's role in that.

In brief, authoritarianization has two groups of actors. The first group is the "direct actors," whose policies have brought Turkey to an authoritarian state. The second group is the "indirect actors." Who are they? The indirect actors are those who do nothing despite their possession of the power of leverage that can stop the authoritarianization of a country. Indeed, the EU has strong leverage power in Turkey that could have been used to stop authoritarianization there. But it did nothing. Instead, the EU has spent the last three years making useless statements; similarly, EU diplomats (including the ambassadors of EU countries) have kept on tweeting ultra-symbolic stuff but did nothing else. These "tweeting diplomats" naturally failed to stop authoritarianization in Turkey.

In the past, EU soft power was an important dynamic in Turkey's democratization. Basically, today, the EU's soft stance on Turkey's authoritarian rulers contributes to anti-democratic developments. How does that happen?

[?]

For example, the EU Commission has postponed the release of its annual Turkey report. Of course, this helped President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the eve of a critical election; nobody talked about Turkey's deficiencies before the election. The EU Commission was once the international symbol of human rights and democracy. Today, it is an archaic committee that can do dirty things in exchange for strategic gain. I personally wonder how the EU commissioners legitimized this in philosophical terms. How does a member of the EU Commission accept cheap strategic tactics?

[?]

Thus, the most influential legitimacy ticket for authoritarianization in Turkish leaders' pockets is the European ticket. They know that the EU will do nothing. These leaders know very well that whatever they do will be free of cost to them on the EU account.

It must be a great irony of history that the EU has become a contributor to Turkey's authoritarianization. Worse, Turkey has already crossed the red line. Any possible upcoming European action is unlikely to cause major changes in Turkey. The EU should have been active a year ago at least. The EU should have taken note of the route Turkey is on before all the happenings of today.

[?]

Frankly speaking, it is also good to learn that one can bribe the EU easily. We have witnessed the limits of European democracy. The EU is indeed a democratic organization. However, it can digest, and even be indirectly part of, highly anti-democratic agendas in another country. Let's call it a selfish democracy. It's like a man who is himself a moral being, but keeps silent about bribery among others. Then again, the EU-Turkey relationship is not like a relationship between one man and another man. The EU is supposed to be proactive in a candidate country. Thus, the EU is today more like the metaphorical moral policeman who turns a blind eye to a bribe that, in principle, should not be happening."

[10] AKP came first in the occupied area of Cyprus as well

Meanwhile, after AKP's election victory, enthusiasm was experienced in the streets of the occupied part of Nicosia. AKP supporters came to Nicosia with convoys from various points of the occupied area of Cyprus. They toured the occupied part of the capital holding AKP and Turkish flags and celebrated with dancing and shouting slogans.

(I/Ts.)

[11] Akinci: November's meetings will focus mainly on the property issue

Akinci made the statement upon his return to the occupied area of Cyprus after the leaders talks were concluded on Friday.

Touching upon the meeting with the Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades, Akinci said that the talks had been constructive as the two sides were now able to better understand one another.

Referring to the joint statement read out by the UN Secretary General's Special Adviser for Cyprus Espen Barth Eide, Akinci said that the month of November will see intensified negotiations taking place and added that at the end of the month they will be at a much better position at the talks.

"Hopefully we will progress quickly. Today as leaders, we started working on the criteria of the property issue and throughout the month of November we will concentrate on this issue", he stated.

Upon being asked a question regarding the visit that will be carried out by the US, Germany, Britain and Russia Foreign Ministers to Cyprus next month, Akinci said that his meeting with the Foreign Ministers are nearly determined but a meeting between himself and the Russian Foreign Minister, had for now, not been determined.

[12] Akinci is reportedly cautiously optimistic on the Cyprus problem

Expressing the assumption that Akinci will have closer relations with the Turkish Cypriot press, but he does not intent to "quarrel with the Greek Cypriot side in front of the press", Ozuslu notes that some of his "impressions" from the meeting are the following:

- Akinci still seems optimistic, even though cautiously optimistic and a little bit less optimistic comparing to the period he was elected.

- Akinci relates the criticism against him after his statements to Kibris newspaper on the bi-zonality issue to the stance of some Greek Cypriot "political groups" which allegedly want to "wear him out" and to entering into the pre-election climate for the parliamentary elections to be held in May 2016.

- They have a good dialogue with President Anastasiades, but it could be said that the developments in Turkey and the uncertainty after the 1 November elections has caused confusion to the Greek Cypriot side. The impression that the "honey moon" in the Cyprus negotiations has ended derives from this perception and concern.

- November is very crucial, because the course of the property issue will be clarified. Akinci did not give any details, but it is understood that in the meeting held between the leaders on Friday some progress was achieved, as far as the Turkish Cypriot side is concerned.

- Some obstacles exist on the chapters of power sharing, governance and the EU, but they could be overcome. The "rotating presidency" has not been agreed yet, but it is considered definite that it will be settled in correlation with the "cross voting".

- The Turkish Cypriot leader does not think that a serious problem will come up on the issue of security and guarantees.

- The security issue should be based on a "win-win" mentality to be reached on vital issues such as the gas, the electricity and the water, on which the economic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean coincide and not on a military concept only. Akinci is optimistic that a consensus could be reached on the guarantees.

- Ankara has not created any problem until now to Akinci's negotiating team.

- Akinci believes that November could be decisive. The six meetings between the leaders will be focused on the property issue. The main debate on the property is experienced in the "bi-zonality- derogations axis". The Turkish Cypriot side says that the Turkish Cypriots must be the majority in the area controlled by the "Turkish Cypriot state", while President Anastasiades rejects the derogations and "seeks refuge" in the EU and the human rights. It is understood that a "midway" is searched on this issue.

- There are different estimations as regards the cost of the solution varying between 20 and 60 billion euro. The money will be used both for compensations and for building houses for the people who will be forced to move.

(I/Ts.)

[13] Turkish daily reportedly writes that the two sides have reached to a "historic agreement on the citizenship issue"

Sources close to the paper said that in case the issues of property and territory are solved, then more than 90% of the Cyprus problem would be solved. However, the same source said that at the moment, the two side's positions are far away.

While the Turkish Cypriot side demands mostly for the property issue to be solved throughout the compensation way, the Greek Cypriot side prefers mostly this issue to be solved through return. The responsibility for overpassing this disagreement belongs to the leaders who will intensify their meetings in November.

Meanwhile, as the paper writes, the two sides had also reached to an agreement that after the solution and with the solution of the property issue with compensation, exchange and return, the property and the population majority in the Turkish Cypriot side, will belong to the Turkish Cypriots. However, the issue how this majority will be protected in the course of time has not been defined yet.

Also, sources close to the negotiations said that November and December will be very crucial months since it will be defined whether there will be a solution or a non-solution on the chapters of property and territory.

According to the paper, the goal is for a referendum on the Cyprus problem to take place prior to the Parliamentary Elections which are scheduled to take place on May in the Republic of Cyprus.

Neither the Turkish Cypriot side, nor the Greek Cypriot side and the UN expect for a problem to arise towards the guarantees issue. All sides believe that a formula could be found that could lead to an agreement towards this matter and they consider that Turkey, Greece and the UK will be able to produce a common decision. The sides had also started preparation on the writing of the Federal laws. The Turkish Cypriots have also intensified their preparation for passing to Euro and for their harmonization with the EU.

(AK)

[14] Erhurman: Turkey started developing strategies by which it will dominate over the entire island

Addressing a program organized at the illegal "Near East University" under the title "New Agendas, New Approaches in the Turkish Foreign Policy", Erhurman argued:

"Turkey wants a solution now. In this sense, Turkey started developing strategies by which it could dominate over the whole of Cyprus. On the top of these, the water which came to the island and the electricity which could come afterwards are undoubtedly very important issues. The one who controls the water here controls many things. Of course, thirdly marketing the gas to the world over Turkey is a matter which we are debating now and we will discuss more intensively in the future. Moreover, we should not forget that Turkey is creating very important investments in the TRNC in the field of tourism and education. These are indications that Turkey started thinking big on the Cyprus issue. In spite of all these, the solution in Cyprus could be achieved by the end of 2016 the soonest or in the beginning of 2017 and not in March 2016 as it is expected. Very little progress has been achieved yet on issues such as the economy, the citizenship, the EU, the property and the territory".

Erhurman also referred to the history of the Cyprus problem. He noted that by paying compensation to the Greek Cypriot refugee Titina Loizidou in 2003, Turkey accepted that the properties in the occupied area of the island belong to the Greek Cypriots. "And this has caused the perception primarily in Cyprus and in the international community that Turkey accepted the occupation", argues Erhurman claiming that the issue obtained a different dimension with the establishment of the "Property Compensation Commission". "With the Demopoulos decision taken by the ECHR, it was showed that the property right is a financial right and not a holly right", he claimed.

(I/Ts.)

[15] Ozgurgun and Tatar will compete for the UBP leadership on a second round

Besides current UBP leader Huseyin Ozgurgun, Ersin Tatar, Unal Ustel, Ersan Saner, Zorlu Tore, Nazim Cavusoglu and Oguz Ceyda competed for the party leadership.

Ozgurgun who received 2 thousand 722 votes and Tatar who received 1 thousand 437 of the votes will be competing at the second round next week.

According to the results, Ustel received 708, Saner received 497, Cavusoglu received 382, Tore received 324 and Ceyda received 42 votes.

Since none of the candidates received the absolute majority of the votes a second round will be held between Ozgurgun and Tatar next week.

During the second round of voting absolute majority will not be sought and the candidate who receives the majority of the votes will be elected as the new leader of the UBP.

[16] CTP attended the Socialist International meeting in Spain

According to a statement issued by CTP, the party was represented at the meeting by the member of the central committee of CTP, secretary for foreign relations Muhittim Tolga Ozsaglam.

During the meeting, issues related with the migration crisis in the Mediterranean, the Syrian issue, the Palestinian issue and the Cyprus problem, were discussed amongst others.

In the final declaration which was issued after the end of the meeting, a special reference on the Cyprus problem said the following: "We are closing following the efforts exerted for ending the division in the island. In this framework, and in the framework of our principles and values, we pay importance to the Confidence Building Measures and to the solution of the Cyprus problem within the framework of the decisions of the UN".

Evaluating the three-day meeting of the Mediterranean Committee, Ozsaglam said that the paragraph on the Cyprus problem which was included at the final declaration was a result of their insistence and intensified effort.

Underlining that in spite of the differences of opinion they have with some political parties, again, the CTP achieved to underline the importance of finding a solution on the Cyprus problem based on the UN's decisions and parameters.

(AK)

[17] The occupation regime attends the WTM tourism fair in London

According to the paper, the so-called minister of tourism Faiz Sucuoglu will also attend the fair and have a series of contacts.

The occupation regime will participate in the fair with its own stand under the name: "North Cyprus". Also, the occupation regime's delegation will hold a series of events for the promotion of the "TRNC" and will try to send the message to the British market that "north Cyprus" is an ideal destination for tourists.

According to the paper, more than 5 thousand companies from 186 different countries will participate to the fair this year, while the number of visitors is expected to be more than 50 thousand.

(AK) TURKISH AFFAIRS SECTION

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(CS/ AM)

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