Cyprus PIO: Turkish Press and Other Media, 01-11-06

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From: The Republic of Cyprus Press and Information Office Server at <http://www.pio.gov.cy/>

[A] NEWS ITEMS

[01] NPM against AVRUPA newspaper.

[02] Alvaro de Soto held contacts in Ankara.

[03] Turkish Foreign Ministry Under Secretary is having contacts in occupied Nicosia.

[04] Mehmet Ali Talat criticizes Ecevit/s and Cem/s statements on Cyprus.

[05] PUM and Unions criticize Ecevit/s and Cem/s statements.

[06] Political cauldron is boiling in Ankara.

[07] The Turkish President speaks of common ground before resumption of talks on Cyprus.

[08] Experts assess that Turkey's expectations from the USA are too high.

[B] COMMENTS AND EDITORIALS

[09] Erol Manisali: "Who is Cem threatening? The EU or Turkey?"

[A] NEWS ITEMS

[01] NPM against AVRUPA newspaper

NPM General Coordinator Taner Etkin provided a letter drawn up for this purpose, as well as two file folders containing writings from AVRUPA newspaper, to so-called Chief Prospector Akin Sait.

In a statement he made after receiving the files Akin Sait said that he had a great many files concerning the publications in question and that he was obliged, while carrying out his investigations, to apply both the "constitution and the laws", and that, just as he himself would not seek to make use of any authority not granted him in law, he would also not be able to ask anyone else to do so. Akin Sait spoke as follows:

"Criminal investigations are carried out by the police organization. That must be the focus of any determination of crime. In other words, I will hand the material provided to me today to the General Directorate of Police. We convey things we hear with regard to these newspapers and other allegations of crimes, and the police carry out their investigations. When the investigation has been completed, the file comes to me. If I find evidence (of a crime), then I take it to court. Files that do not contain such evidence do not go to the court".

[02] Alvaro de Soto held contacts in Ankara

The UN official met with Foreign Minister Ismail Cem and Foreign Ministry Under Secretary Ugur Ziyal, and replied to journalists' questions after the meeting. Asked to comment on press reports about Cem's statements that Turkey could integrate with north Cyprus if Cyprus becomes an EU member, de Soto said: " I also read about this in the press. Naturally, I did not discuss newspaper reports. We discussed the matter very briefly. Moreover, this statement is not directed at the United Nations".

Alvaro de Soto explained that he held contacts in Cyprus and Ankara in order to prepare the atmosphere for the resumption of the talks on the island within the framework of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's good offices mission. He added that he will then proceed to Athens. Asked about his view on Cyprus' membership in the EU, de Soto said: "EU Commission Chairman Prodi announced that the EU wants a solution to be found on the island before the accession as much as the United Nations. Now, it is important to launch the talks toward a solution as soon as possible. I hope that the EU will act in this direction".

[03] Turkish Foreign Ministry Under Secretary is having contacts in occupied Nicosia

In his address at the meeting, Denktas expressed his pleasure at seeing Ziyal, who started his service in 1965 and who also served in the occupied areas.

Noting that the statements on Cyprus made by the Turkish officials proved Turkey's determination once again, Denktas added that Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's statements in a newspaper showed Turkey's resolute policies to secure peace.

Recounting that he called on Glavcos Clerides to see the facts and make a correct decision with regard to peace, Denktas alleged that Turkey's policies are along the lines of peace, but, it will protect the right of the Turkish Cypriots until the end.

Denktas further noted that the Cyprus issue will be on the right tract once the Greek Cypriots realize they cannot lift Turkey's guarantorship, which stem from agreements, and colonize the Turkish Cypriots.

Serter, in turn, said that the Cyprus issue is undergoing a very critical period. Noting that the Turkish government officials' statements gave strength and morale to the Turkish Cypriots, Serter added that these statements manifest Turkey's determination once again.

Emphasizing that the Turkish Cypriots are determined to work for the existence of the pseudostate Serter reiterated that an agreement can be secured if it is based on the principle of two states and political equality.

Ziyal, in turn, said that the Cyprus question is going through a difficult period and that the realities have to be seen. Noting that the government officials' statements prove once again that Turkey is always behind the Turkish Cypriots. "We aim at securing an appropriate solution to the Cyprus issue", added Ziyal.

Recalling that Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots have always stood side by side and upright, Ziyal said that joint action should be taken in order to secure an auspicious end to the Cyprus issue. Noting that the statements proved once again the Cyprus realities, Ziyal said: "We started this cause together. We will continue and resolve this cause together".

In reply to a question, Ziyal said that the Turkish officials' statements were addressed to both Turkey and the world. Explaining that the statements did not reflect anger and reaction, Ziyal added: "The statements are an expression of the realities".

[04] Mehmet Ali Talat criticizes Ecevit/s and Cem/s statements on Cyprus

Talat held a news conference today, commenting on Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit and Foreign Minister Ismail Cem's statements on the Cyprus issue as well as on the economic crisis in the occupied areas and its consequences.

In his statement, Talat criticized Ecevit's statement made to a Turkish newspaper a few days ago, and declared that the RTP rejects a solution such as annexation. Talat said that the RTP believes that annexation is extremely dangerous, and it could result in new developments and in Cyprus' becoming the oldest and hottest problem in the world, rather than contribute to its solution.

Talat said: "Those who advocated the eternal perpetuation of the `TRNC/ when it was established are now both proposing and supporting the policy of annexing the `TRNC/ to Turkey".

Pointing out that it is essential to take all the facts into consideration when such stands are displayed, Talat declared that very serious clashes could erupt in the region if the occupied area is annexed to Turkey. Also criticizing Cem's remarks, Talat said that it is necessary to question the kind of political view or achievement that is served by paying a price for the lack of a solution in north Cyprus.

The RTP does not accept a relationship of autonomy with Turkey, Talat announced, defining the statements issued in this regard as the bankruptcy of foreign policy. Talat said that in rejecting annexation, the RTP believes that rather than pay a price for not returning to negotiating table, one must return to the negotiating table and exert efforts for a solution that underlines the political equality of the Turkish Cypriot people.

Pointing out that the Turkish Cypriots should participate in the EU process as an equal side and the talks must be conducted in two channels along a parallel UN process, Talat said that this is the only solution.

Talat also stated that a serious economic crisis was created by spilling the problems in the Turkish economy into Cyprus as well. He charged that the pseudostate has been transformed into a place that exports capital. He noted that the economic crisis is developing in two directions, adding that in addition to the bankruptcies caused by aggravated living conditions, the court cases, the confiscation of property and the unemployment chaos, the Turkish Cypriot people are being forced to immigrate because they are unable to continue living in their own land. In the spirit of social responsibility, the RTP proposes to find a solution for the Cyprus problem, participate in the EU process, open Varosha and the Nicosia international airport, stop the confiscation of property and alleviate the tax burden. Finally, Talat called on pseudostate officials to address the problems of the Turkish Cypriots.

[05] PUM and Unions criticize Ecevit/s and Cem/s statements

A statement signed by PUM General-Secretary Izzet Izcan declared that at a time when a solution is being sought in line with the parameters created under the roof of the United Nations, Turkey is using the Turkish Cypriots as a trump card against the EU, rather than undertake moves to eliminate their concerns. The statement noted that the PUM resistance will continue against any move that will disrupt Cyprus' integrity.

Dev-Is [Federation of Revolutionary Worker Unions] has declared that all sides to the Cyprus problem should undertake initiatives that will bring the sides to the negotiating table for a solution. In a written statement, Dev-Is leader Ali Gulle protested against statements issued on the Cyprus problem without receiving the consent of the Turkish Cypriots. Gulle said that the right to decide on the Cyprus issue belongs to the Turkish Cypriots, proposing that the guarantor countries act accordingly.

On his part in a statement, Ali Seylani, leader of the Turkish Cypriot civil servants unions, said that the Turkish side should make the United Nations and the EU feel that it is the side close to a solution in order not to pay new prices. Seylani noted that changing the course Turkey has set to become integrated into the EU by defying the world will result in its paying serious political prices. Seylani added that efforts must be exerted for a bizonal and bicommunal federation, and subsequently for EU membership.

[06] Political cauldron is boiling in Ankara

With the year-long economic-financial crisis in the country further thickening with the impact of the American-led "war on terrorism," the future of Turkish politics is becoming more and more bleak, triggering an intensification of efforts for new initiatives in parties, both inside and outside Parliament.

As the political cauldron comes closer to boiling point, political instability is getting ground.

The three-way coalition government, which enjoys a 340-seat numeric majority in the 550-member unicameral Parliament, is trying to survive pressures coming from three directions.

The prime problem endangering the longevity of the coalition government stems from doubts regarding the health of ageing Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. The decrease in the performance of Ecevit is worrying his coalition partners as much as it worries the deputies of the veteran social democratic leader's Democratic Left Party (DSP).

The most pressing and perhaps the fundamental problem placing the future of the government at the focal point of discussions, is the economic and financial crisis that has been gripping the country for almost a year.

The crisis, that started last November and further intensified with a second crisis in February, has crippled the government. Although the three-way coalition government abided with all demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, though with some delay, it could not prevent the collapse either in the finance sector or the real sector.

Since the start of the crisis, the Turkish lira was devaluated against most international currencies almost three-fold. Putting aside new investments that could provide new job opportunities for hundreds of thousands of Turks left unemployed by the shrinking economy, the government is facing severe problems in securing funds to pay the salaries of civil servants and pensioners and resorting to more and more domestic borrowing. The domestic debt burden on the budget has been swallowing all revenues, making it unavoidable for the government to seek fresh domestic debts. The growing domestic debt, on the other hand, is making it difficult to obtain fresh domestic loans.

This vicious situation of the economy is crippling the government and exhausting all efforts for a way out from the crisis. The economic crisis, which has brought big domestic capital against the coalition government, is feared to be forcing small and medium sized businessmen and shop owners to take to the streets.

While the government, claiming that there was no alternative to it, is sticking on remaining in power, the unrest is increasing in the ruling three parties.

Another uncertainty facing the government is the growing probability of the spread of the war in Afghanistan to the Middle East. In a war atmosphere, nobody believes this government can remain in office. Since the economy is already in a crisis, no one has any idea how war expenses would be financed. Thus, the government being replaced by a "War Cabinet" won't be a surprise to many in Ankara.

When the uncertainties facing the government are coupled with the never-ending friction between the government and the President and between the president and Parliament, it appears that an early election will soon remain the sole way out from the crisis and the looming atmosphere of overall uncertainty.

.And, as elections appear inevitable and the anticipations gain strength that a poll date won't be far away, deputies are getting more and more nervous. One day they fight amongst themselves, the other day they attack the government and the next day they are at odds with the President.

In the DSP of Ecevit, there is some serious, but so far discreet, activity fuelled by fears that an election might not be that far away. The determining factor of the search in the DSP is the health of Ecevit and what would happen in the post-Ecevit era. DSP deputies are vociferous now regarding what might happen in the post-Ecevit era, a development unaccustomed for that party until now. Not only are they talking on that, until very recently taboo issue, they are also organizing discussion sessions, participated in by many deputies.

So far, it appears that there are three groups within the DSP. Ecevit's right-hand-man Deputy Prime Minister Husamettin Ozkan, partly because of his current status, appears confident that he would be the political heir of Ecevit. Ozkan, with the help of some "friends" in the media, apparently is trying to spread the image that he was also wanted by the military to succeed Ecevit.

Although there are claims that at least half of the existing 131 deputies of the DSP would walk behind Ozkan, some political analysts say when that day comes Ozkan may not be able to find some ten people to follow him. Observers say Rahsan Ecevit will play a decisive role when that day comes.

The second strongest name said that might play a major role in post-Ecevit DSP is Foreign Minister Ismail Cem. Although, with the support of media, Cem appears to have a strong place in the public, he has little support in the party and is not believed to have much weight in a post-Ecevit DSP.

The third group in the DSP is gathered around State Minister Sukru Sina Gurel. This group, despite the anti-propaganda of some media groups, appears to have some real place in the DSP. Observers note that at the elections for parliamentary deputy speaker, despite the name put forward by Ecevit, Gurel's group named their own candidate and despite Ecevit's opposition managed to receive support of 26 of the 131 deputies of the DSP.

Even if Ecevit remains as DSP leader, if an election comes closer, analysts say at least one of these three groups is very likely to leave the DSP and join ranks with a political formation headed by veteran social democratic leader Erdal Inonu.

The unrest in junior coalition partner Motherland Party (ANAP) is also still brewing, as was demonstrated with the resignation on Thursday of heavy gun Agah Oktay Guner. Some 15 ANAP deputies, including former party leader Yildirim Akbulut, are claimed to be on the verge of parting ways with ANAP, meeting from time to time and discussing when to leave the party.

In contrast to the uneasiness in ANAP, the main opposition True Path Party (DYP) appears to have started filling its sails with a fresh wind. Although public opinion polls indicate that popular support for the DYP is still at around 10-15 percent, this rate itself marks a substantial increase, as only two months ago the rating of DYP was only at around 4.5 percent.

With the support of former President Suleyman Demirel, the DYP is struggling to become the largest party of center-right and in a way establish unity of center-right under its banner. Still the public "distrust" in DYP leader Tansu Ciller reduces the chances of this party making a major leap forward in the near future. But, if an early election comes on the agenda of Turkey, the growth in the DYP may become more apparent as many veteran politicians who so far prefer to stay at a distance from Ciller and the DYP are very likely to join that party en masse.

There are some other leading figures who apparently prefer to join the DYP through an indirect way: Establishing their own party and merging it later with the DYP, and thus gaining additional political advantages such as executive posts in party administration and top ranks on electoral candidate lists. Husnu Dogan and Ilhan Kesici are reportedly in this group of prominent personalities.

Very much like the search in center-right, intense efforts are underway in center-left as well. The search in center-left, that is mostly fed by the "distrust" in Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal, is mostly centered around the name of veteran social democratic leader Erdal Inonu.

As the probability of the establishment of a new social democratic party with strong cadres by Inonu is increasing, efforts to tarnish the image of the social democratic leader are gaining speed as well. The news reports against Inonu, however, are evaluated by veteran observers of Turkish politics as an indication of the fear in some influential circles of Turkish politics that the Inonu-led movement may pose a serious challenge in the left spectrum.

Reports that Zekeriya Temizel, the former head of the Banking Regulation and Supervision Board (BDDK) and a former finance minister, will be among the top cadres of Inonu's party, however, is irritating big business in the country. While he was serving as the finance minister, Temizel had introduced a series of tax reforms that were referred to "financial anno domini." Tenmizel's tax reform, however, landed the country in a financial crisis after the ensuing governments scrapped some vital parts of the reform package.

The "national left" party that a group of leftists have been trying to establish under the leadership of Mumtaz Soysal, on the other hand, appears to have been indexed to an early election. The Republican Peoples' Party (CHP), on the other hand, is still believed to be below the ten percent national threshold.

On the political Islam front of Turkish politics, meanwhile, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) continues to be a center of attraction. Still, doubts on the political feature of AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has started to carve out public support for that party. The public support for the AKP which was hovering around 40 percent level when the party was established, is now at around 20 percent. Still, public opinion polls indicate that the AKP is the largest political party in the country.

Political analysts say if an early election is not held, public support for the AKP will be further eroded and the party will eventually be forced to enter competition with Saadet (happiness or contentment) Party (SP). The SP, on the other hand, seeing that the political ban on its behind the scenes leader Necmettin Erbakan will remain until February 2003, has stopped pressing the ruling parties for an early election. Instead, the SP has started using the traditional policies of Erbakan and is trying to become the voice of political Islam.

This boiling atmosphere both in parties represented in Parliament and those outside Parliament is expected to produce some tangible outcome by the end of the year.

Political analysts say if the economic-financial crisis turns into a total economic collapse, or Ecevit leaves the Prime Ministry either for health reasons or for some other reason, or if the "war on terror" expands to include Iraq and comes to Turkey's borders, political steps that appear difficult to be taken now, may become much easier to realize.

And, analysts say the probability of one of the conditions described becoming a reality appear closer than ever.

[07] The Turkish President speaks of common ground before resumption of talks on Cyprus

Meanwhile, responding to questions of journalists about the Cyprus question during the meeting, President Sezer said: ``We have always supported United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan`s good will mission. We will continue to extend support in the future. However, we believe that a joint ground should be created for both the `TRNC/ and the Greek Cypriot side to restart negotiations to find a solution to Cyprus. Also, we believe that Alvaro De Soto, the Special Representative of United Nations Secretary-General Annan to Cyprus, would create this joint ground.``

[08] Experts assess that Turkey/s expectations from the USA are too high

The government, counting on the USA support to be extended to Turkey for the decision to send troops to Afghanistan, has important expectations on foreign policy issues such as the EU, Cyprus and the European Security and Defence Identity. (ESDI).

However, foreign policy experts, reports CUMHURIYET, consider these expectations rather exaggerated. They said that the decision to send troops to Afghanistan would provide, in the short term, economic assistance, and will extend the life of the present government, nothing else.

Prof. Dr Hasan Koni of the Political Sciences Department of Ankara University said that Turkey/s extending support for the Afghanistan operation will not yield any positive result regarding issues concerning Europe. He said that he did not think that there will be important foreign policy changes, except providing short term economic assistance and freeing some restrictions imposed on the US military procurement supplies.

Prof. Dr. Cagri Erhan of the same department of the University said that Turkey's expectations from the USA regarding the Cyprus problem were exaggerated and that the USA "never gave Turkey an open cheque regarding Cyprus". He went on and said: "We think that when we send troops to Afghanistan the USA will extend support to us in Cyprus. But we do not consider the price Washington will pay for this support. The Greek lobby in the USA is still very effective. Will the Bush Administration alienate the Greek Lobby? "I do not think so".

Prof. Erhan also said that the Cyprus problem is EU/s problem and not the USA/s.

As for the ESDI Prof. Erhan said that it was impossible for the EU to accept a non-member in the decision-making process of the European army.

[B] COMMENTS AND EDITORIALS

[09] Erol Manisali: "Who is Cem threatening? The EU or Turkey?"

Ismail Cem, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, says "We could be forced to make concessions on the subject of Cyprus". In this statement, which created reaction, the following is what Cem wanted to say: "We have reached a turning point on the subject of Cyprus as the result of the pressures of the EU. Either we will give Cyprus to the EU (to Greece) or we will challenge the EU. If we challenge the EU, then there will be a cost for this; the EU will not take us in". This is what Cem means by the cost.

"I have some doubts" about this sally of Cem's:

- Is Cem threatening Turkey?

- Or is he defying the EU, it is not very clear. It is as though he says, "we can do everything by defying the EU heroically", however, he is orienting to the domestic pubic opinion as the main address and he means to say, "Look, if we do not do what the EU tells us to do, so that we can protect Turkey's national interests on Cyprus, then the EU will exclude us and the cost of this will be significant". He is threatening "the inside" [Turkey].

In my opinion, he is not threatening "the outside", but the "inside". Cem's "style" also is not appropriate for threatening the outside in such a manner: Up until now, those who wanted Ankara to be moderated have always approached through Cem. Those who prevented the appointment by Demirel of Sukru Gurel as the foreign minister, are the same circles.

One Feels on Wednesday the Advent of Thursday... Since 1990, that is, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was known that the EU would bring the Cyprus disagreement to this point. We should list and look once again at the following:

1. The EU accepted the membership request of the Greek Cypriots in 1993, in violation of the international agreements, and put it into the process. This was the "law of the jungle" of the EU. They said very openly to the TRNC [Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus], "We do recognize the law, this is a political decision of the EU".

2. Prior to 6 March 1995, the EU officially obtained concessions "by tricking" the government in Ankara. The document is the statement the EU made on the subject of Cyprus in the "Chairmanship Notification" dated 24 February 1995. Under the shadow of this document, the Turkish government was made to sign the Customs Union document and this was also done unilaterally. I wrote about this in my book "European Impasse" by setting forth the tragedy of the matter, all the details and the names.

3. The course opened with the Greek Cypriot Administration was developed by basing it on the 24 February document and even in December 1999, when making Turkey a non-functional candidate to the EU, it was stated "as a prerequisite". Did not the EU officials coming from Helsinki to Ankara in the middle of the night speak with Cem and have Ecevit say "yes"? Did Cem not know even from that day that this matter would come to this point?

Did Ecevit, who said, "I am not very happy with it, but I was forced to sign it", not know that the matter would come to the point it reached today?

4. In 2000, when Ankara said yes to the Accession Partnership Document "ratified" by the EU, did it not see in it the Cyprus provision?

5. Or had Minister Ismail Cem seen all of these and while he "accepted" them, thought by saying, "in the future, I can say that the cost of this to Turkey will be very considerable and pass over the subject"?

For us to think that he had not thought so "could lead to a wrong conclusion such as Minister Cem was not able to understand the events I have listed above and in which he himself was directly involved".

Does Cem, at this point, want to get rid of the developments in which he was also involved by saying "the cost will be significant"? The events that he also defended and supported have come to the point that will create this great cost.

Cem's Greatest Mistake! Cem is making the greatest mistake or deviation in the event, which he emphasized as "cost". The EU will also not accept Turkey as a full member in the future. Ismail Cem is in a position to know this the best.

The EU showed in 1995, in 1997, in 1999 when it made Turkey a candidate, in 2000 at the Nice Summit, that it "will not include" Turkey.

Today, everyone in Europe knows this. Turkey will be continuously kept in front of the door by making use of the subjects of Cyprus, the Aegean, Southeastern Anatolia, Armenia, etc. The "unilateral insistence" made to Turkey on the subject of the European Security and Defense Policy is the best proof of this.

For the EU, Turkey "is a country that will be kept connected unilaterally, without being made a full member". There is no Turkey among the "United States of Europe" of the future.

The reason for this, is that for the EU the political, economic and cultural cost of Turkey is unusually high. This is the "cost" that Ismail Cem also confused. The EU, in order not to pay the cost, will also not make Turkey a member in the future. However, it will continuously put off Turkey, as though it would accept Turkey into the EU.

This will continue as long as there are people and groups among us who are prepared to show even the delaying games of the EU as "a cost".

KV/SK

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