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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 154, 01-08-15Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 154, 15 August 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION FORMATION CAMPAIGNS FOR PRESIDENT'S RESIGNATIONThe National Accord Front (AHCh) created in March (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 4, No. 13, 30 March 2001) has collected 20,000 signatures of the 1 million it hopes to amass in a bid to force the resignation of President Robert Kocharian, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 14 August. Vartan Khachatrian, who is a member of the AHCh political council, said the movement hope to collect the remaining 980,000 signatures by the end of September. At the same time, the AHCh has had far greater success in mobilizing opposition to plans by the Armentel telecommunications monopoly to introduce per-minute billing for telephone calls. Khachatrian also told RFE/RL that the AHCh is conducting talks with the opposition Hanrapetutiun party headed by former Prime Minister Aram Sargsian, the People's Party of Armenia, and the National Unity Party on forming a broad opposition alliance. LF[02] GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SEEKS TO EXPEDITE GAS EXPORT DEAL WITH AZERBAIJANIrakli Menagharishvili met in Baku on 14 August with his Azerbaijani counterpart Vilayat Quliev and with a senior official from Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR in an attempt to finalize the terms of the agreement on exports via Georgia of natural gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field, Caucasus Press reported. That agreement is to be signed during a visit to Baku by Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze originally scheduled for 27 July (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 and 10 August 2001). No new date has yet been set for that visit. LF[03] GEORGIA, U.S. EXPRESS CONCERN AT CASPIAN TENSIONSDuring their talks in Baku on 14 August, Menagharishvili told Quliev that the Georgian leadership is worried by the escalation of tensions in the Caspian between Azerbaijan and Iran, ITAR-TASS reported. He proposed that Baku and Tbilisi "mobilize their economic cooperation efforts in order to counterbalance those forces" that have no interest in preserving stability in the region. Also on 14 August, U.S. State Department spokesman Philp Reeker condemned as "provocative" the recent incursions of Iranian aircraft into Azerbaijani airspace. Such actions are "counterproductive to efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution of Caspian boundary disputes," Reeker added. He said the Caspian littoral states should embark on negotiations to resolve such border disputes. LF[04] UN ENVOY MEDIATES ABKHAZ-GEORGIAN AGREEMENT ON HOSTAGE EXCHANGEAt a meeting in western Georgia on 14 August chaired by UN special envoy Dieter Boden, Abkhaz and Georgian government and security officials signed an agreement pledging to secure the release of all persons held hostage in the Abkhaz conflict zone, Caucasus Press and AP reported. They also agreed to crack down on the illicit activities of both Abkhaz and Georgian criminal groups operating in the region, and appealed for the support of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in that effort. The commander of the Russian peacekeeping force, Major General Nikolai Sidorichev, met the previous day with police officials from western Georgia's Zugdidi and Abkhazia's Gali raions to discuss measures to counter the activities of criminal groups. LF[05] TRIAL OPENS IN ABSENTIA OF FORMER KAZAKH PREMIERThe trial in absentia of former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin began in Kazakhstan's Supreme Court in Astana on 15 August, AFP reported. Kazhegeldin is accused of abuse of his official position, extortion, bribe- taking, tax evasion, and illegal possession of weapons. He denies those charges, which he says are politically motivated. LF[06] SUSPECTED CHOLERA CASES IN WESTERN KAZAKHSTANA woman believed to be suffering from cholera has been hospitalized in the city of Atyrau in western Kazakhstan, ITAR-TASS reported on 115 August. So far this year there has been one reported death in Kazakhstan from that disease (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 August 2001). LF[07] CHARGES AGAINST KYRGYZ HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST DROPPEDThe Osh Oblast department of Kyrgyzstan's National Security Service announced on 14 August that it has terminated the case against human rights activist Noomanjan Arkabaev, who was arrested in late June on charges of having called for the overthrow of President Askar Akaev (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 and 19 July 2001). A National Security Service official told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service that he cannot prove Arkabaev's guilt. LF[08] KYRGYZ OFFICIAL CLARIFIES WORLD BANK POSITION ON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGYPresidential administration official Kubat Kanimetov told RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau on 14 August that while the World Bank may finance some infrastructure-related and agricultural projects within the framework of the 10-year Complex Development Framework program, it will not finance the entire program. Kanimetov had suggested the previous day that the bank might not provide any funding for the project (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 August 2001). LF[09] UZBEK COURT SENTENCES SIX FOR 'TERRORISM'A regional court in Uzbekistan's Ferghana valley passed sentence on 14 August on six men charged with terrorism, including the murder of police and government officials, AP and Interfax reported. Two men identified as leaders of a group that recruited young men to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan were sentenced to 18 years imprisonment, while four others received sentences ranging from nine to 12 years. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[10] NATO AMBASSADORS DISCUSS MACEDONIAN MISSIONNATO's 19 ambassadors making up the North Atlantic Council began discussions in Brussels on 15 August regarding the planned arms-collection mission to Macedonia, known as Operation Essential Harvest, dpa reported. Some 3,500 soldiers will participate in the program, which is expected to last about 30 days. The Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Turkey, the U.K., and the U.S. will take part, "The New York Times" reported. The council meeting is expected to end with a proposal to launch the operation by a specific date, AP reported. The proposal will then be sent to member countries. If none objects, the measure is considered approved. NATO's preconditions for involvement are that a political agreement be in place, that NATO have a legal basis for intervening, that the guerrillas agree to disarm, and that a cease-fire be effective. PM[11] CONDITIONS MET FOR NATO ROLE IN MACEDONIAQuoting unnamed Macedonian government sources, "The New York Times" reported on 15 August that NATO has secured the signature of National Liberation Army (UCK) leader Ali Ahmeti on an agreement to disarm. On behalf of the government and without publicity, President Boris Trajkovski offered the rebels an amnesty. The "deal" appears to be that the president and government promise to secure the necessary parliamentary approval for the amnesty, while the UCK agrees to begin disarming before the legislature votes. Dpa reported that NATO envoy Peter Feith and Ahmeti signed the disarmament agreement in Sipkovica near Tetovo. The UCK agreed to surrender all weapons and ammunition, as well as insignias and emblems from their uniforms. The guerrillas will also accept orders from NATO. Ahmeti promised that the UCK will not hinder the movement of Macedonian forces once NATO leaves. The OSCE and EU will monitor developments on the ground. PM[12] BRITAIN TO TAKE LEADING ROLE IN MACEDONIAN MISSIONUnnamed British defense sources told Reuters in London on 15 August that the U.K. will provide up to 1,800 of the soldiers for Essential Harvest. The troops could be ready to depart as early as 16 August. PM[13] NATO COMMANDER IN MACEDONIA CAUTIOUSDanish General Gunnar Lange told a news conference in Skopje on 15 August that plans to start Essential Harvest are contingent on implementation of the cease-fire, Reuters reported. He said that he will be monitoring the situation "over the next few days." Lange added: "The conditions on the ground must also be right before any deployment can occur. The cease-fire must be respected. Our soldiers will not come here to enforce a peace." Elsewhere, the Macedonian Defense Ministry reported some fighting between its forces and the UCK in and near Tetovo during the night of 14-15 August. PM[14] BUSH HAILS MACEDONIAN AGREEMENTPresident George W. Bush said in a statement at Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado on 14 August that Macedonian "President Trajkovski and I agree that [the UCK's] tactics are despicable and their methods undemocratic. The time has come for these armed groups to turn over their weapons to NATO and disband," AP reported. Bush, who had just spoken to Trajkovski by telephone, added: "The settlement promises to strengthen democracy and avert civil war, while protecting Macedonia's territorial integrity and political unity. A political settlement has been signed, and we now need to ensure the peace and put Macedonia back on the road to Europe. The United States offers its strong support to President Trajkovski and to the democratic government of Macedonia as they move forward to achieve this goal." PM[15] KFOR ARRESTS 16 HEADING FOR MACEDONIAPolish and Ukrainian KFOR troops detained 16 UCK fighters heading for the Macedonian border and confiscated their weapons on 13 August, KFOR said in a press release from Camp Bondsteel the next day. Among the confiscated items were seven antipersonnel mines, four antitank mines, 13 60-millimeter mortar rounds, two rocket-propelled grenades, 300 blocks of dynamite, and approximately 100 pounds of medical supplies. PM[16] KOSOVA PROTECTION CORPS REJECTS CHARGES FROM MACEDONIAIn a statement in Prishtina on 13 August, the civilian Kosova Protection Corps (TMK) denied recent charges by some Macedonian politicians that several hundred TMK members have taken an active role in the fighting in Macedonia, Kosova Live news agency reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 August 2001). A TMK spokesman noted that Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski and other, unnamed politicians have long sought to blame others for their own inability to manage their own affairs. PM[17] SERBIAN GOVERNING COALITION TO LOOK INTO MYSTERIOUS MURDERA majority of the parties represented in the governing Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) coalition agreed in Belgrade on 14 August that the group's steering committee, or presidency, should meet soon to discuss the recent murder of security man Momir Gavrilovic (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 and 14 August 2001). Some political leaders and other observers have suggested that there could be a link between Gavrilovic's death and the office of President Vojislav Kostunica. The murder took place just hours after Gavrilovic met with members of Kostunica's staff to present evidence of links between some members of the DOS government and the criminal underworld. "Nedeljni telegraf" wrote on 15 August that the effect of the murder on Serbian politics will be "like an earthquake." PM[18] MONTENEGRIN LEADER DENIES SMUGGLING CHARGESIn a letter to the "Financial Times," of 15 August, President Milo Djukanovic denied recent reports in that daily that Montenegro has become a haven for cigarette smugglers. One of his advisers wrote the daily to object its reports that Djukanovic personally has protected criminals or profited from smuggling (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 August 2001). PM[19] CROATIAN FIRES UNDER CONTROLDpa reported from Zagreb on 15 August that the fires raging from Split and Sibenik to Dubrovnik are now under control (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 August 2001). PM[20] CROATIAN POLICE FIND SLAVONIAN ARMS CACHEPolice found a large hoard of arms and ammunition buried near a house owned by a Serb in Erdut, eastern Slavonia, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 14 August. The illegal cache is believed to have been buried there 10 years ago during the Serbian rebellion. PM[21] BOSNIAN AIRLINE TO END CONTROVERSIAL FLIGHTSAir Bosna has agreed to stop direct flights between Istanbul and Tuzla, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 14 August. The flights were reportedly used by many Turkish citizens for illegal entry into Western Europe (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 August 2001). Air Bosna had justified the flights on the grounds that Tuzla is "an attractive tourist destination." Its main attraction, however, seems to have been that immigration authorities do not have an office at Tuzla airport. PM[22] ROMANIAN ROYAL CASTLE RESTITUTION TO BE SUBMITTED TO PLEBISCITE?Public Administration Minister Octav Cozmanca on 14 August said he is "surprised" that former King Michael's lawyers are demanding the restitution of the Peles castle in Sinaia under the provisions of Law No. 10 approved by the parliament earlier this year, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. He said the stipulations of this law might not apply to the castle, which was nationalized under special legislation passed by the communist parliament in 1948, and the restitution of the castle may therefore require special legislation. Cozmanca said the government will debate the request on 16 August and may decide to submit the special legislation to the parliament, adding that the bill might be submitted to a special referendum at a later date. He also said the state invested large sums in refurbishing the castle and that the yearly expenses for maintaining it as a museum amount to 30 billion lei (some $1 million). MS[23] ROMANIAN MINISTER HINTS AT PRESIDENTIAL PARDON FOR COZMACozmanca also said miners' leader Miron Cozma's sentencing to 18 years in prison in 1999 was "a political act." He said the sentence was "exaggerated" and had been changed from three to 18 years in prison "within two weeks" of an appeal by the prosecutor general, thus indicating that the punishment was due to "inadmissible interference of politics in the realm of the judiciary." Cozmanca said neither the government nor the ruling Social Democratic Party will interfere in the presidential decision on whether to pardon Cozma (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 August 2001). MS[24] ROMANIAN PEASANTISTS ELECT CIORBEA AS CHAIRMANAn extraordinary congress of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) on 14 August elected Victor Ciorbea as the new party chairman, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Of the 439 delegates who cast ballots, 431 backed Ciorbea and eight votes were nullified. Constantin Dudu Ionescu was elected PNTCD secretary-general. The new leadership team also includes 13 party vice chairmen: Serban Bubenek, Ion Caramitru, Gheorghe Ciuhandu, Cornelia Coroianu, Alexandru Herlea, Dorin Mihai, Teodor Morariu, Ioan Muresan, Remus Opris, Irinel Popescu, Nicolae Noica, Radu Sarbu, and Gheorghe Valceanu. PNTCD Honorary Chairman Ion Diaconescu told participants the gathering was "the only [legitimate] congress of the true PNTCD." The rival PNTCD wing headed by former PNTCD Chairman Andrei Marga, former First Deputy Chairman Vasile Lupu, and former PNTCD Secretary General Calin Catalin Chirita will hold its own "PNTCD extraordinary congress" on 17-19 August. MS[25] ROMANIANS FEEL 'MARGINALIZED' IN COVASNA, HARGHITA COUNTIESEthnic Romanians living in Harghita and Covasna counties, which have ethnic Hungarian majorities, complained during debates at Izvorul Muresului Summer University that all Romanian governments in the last 10 years have neglected their problems and that they feel "marginalized" and "discriminated against" by the Hungarian majority, Romanian Radio reported. The Izvorul Muresului Summer University, which closed after two days of debates, is largely a response to the Balvanyos Summer University, where Hungarians from Romania, Hungary, and other countries gather every year. Participants said an attempt should be made to hold the two gatherings jointly and transform them into "a real and honest forum of interethnic communication." Participants from Serbia and Bulgaria complained about discrimination, saying that Belgrade and Sofia refuse to recognize them as "Romanians," considering them "Vlachs" (an indigenous rural people speaking a Romance language) instead. Moldovan Popular Party Christian Democratic leader Iurie Rosca complained about the policies of "de-Romanianization" underway in Moldova. MS[26] TRANSDNIESTER TO ISSUE INTERNAL PASSPORTS...Valerii Litskay, the "foreign minister" of the separatist government, on 14 August said that the breakaway region plans to issue internal passports, dpa reported, citing Infotag. Litskay said the Transdniester "government" has run out of blank passports that it received from the former Soviet Union, but Russia has since destroyed the printing plates and "we have no choice but to issue our own passports." Litskay said tension with Chisinau makes issuing Moldovan passports to residents of the breakaway region "difficult." He said Transdniester residents will still be able to use their old foreign passports, such as Moldovan, Ukrainian, or Russian, for travel abroad and the new "Transdniester passport" will be used as an internal document for identification. MS[27] ...REJECTS VORONIN'S PROPOSAL ON UNIFICATION OF ARMIESTransdniester Supreme Soviet deputy speaker Vladimir Atamanyuk on 14 August said that Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin's recent proposal that Moldova and the separatist region unify their armies is "not well thought through," Infotag reported. Atamanyuk told journalists in Tiraspol that "the world has not yet known a single instance when two states, having many unresolved problems, would begin unifying their armies. This amounts to placing the cart before the horse." On Voronin's proposal that the two armies be reduced by 30 percent, Atamanyuk said "each state has the army it is able to maintain." He accused Chisinau of falsifying figures on the strength of its military forces and said Moldovan forces are numerically "at least six times" what is claimed. MS[28] MOLDOVAN ECONOMY MINISTER SAYS MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION ACHIEVEDEconomy Minister Andrei Cucu on 14 August told journalists that the government headed by Vasile Tarlev succeeded in achieving macroeconomic stabilization in the first half of 2001, Infotag reported. According to figures presented by Cucu, GDP grew by 4 percent compared with the same period last year, budget revenues are up by 13 percent, and industrial output increased by 12 percent. Cucu said that agricultural output also rose by 15 percent, while foreign trade increased by 22 percent to $690.6 million. Cucu also said that the agreement recently concluded with the IMF will allow external financing to be resumed by the end of 2001. Moldova expects a $12 million tranche from a loan agreed upon earlier with the IMF, $20 million from the World Bank for budget stabilization, and a $10 million loan from the Dutch government, he said. MS[29] ROMANIAN PREMIER IN BULGARIA...Adrian Nastase, on a one-day visit to Bulgaria on 14 August, met in the mountain resort of Borovets with his Bulgarian counterpart Simeon Saxecoburggotski, BTA, AP, and Mediafax reported. The talks concentrated on the two countries' quests to join the EU and NATO, which were defined by the premiers as "joint priorities." They agreed to assist each other in achieving these goals and to pursue them "in tandem." The two premiers also agreed to work jointly for the stabilization of the Balkans. Saxecoburggotski and Nastase said after the talks that a joint commission of experts will propose solutions to the problems on which they still differ, such as the closure of the Kozloduy nuclear power plant or the restitution to Bulgaria of the building where a Bulgarian high school operated in Bucharest before World War II. Nastase was also received by President Petar Stoyanov. After the meeting, Nastase said Bucharest will back Sofia's quest for a nonpermanent seat on the UN Security Council as well as Bulgaria's efforts to take over the OSCE chairmanship in 2004. MS[30] ...AS BULGARIAN OPPOSITION CRITICIZES LINK WITH ROMANIA ON JOINING EU, NATOThe opposition Union of Democratic Forces (SDS) criticized the government for agreeing to coordinate "in tandem" with Romania efforts to join Euro- Atlantic structures, BTA Mediafax reported. The SDS said the formula "contravenes Bulgarian interests" and the previous SDS-led government's policies, which stipulated that accession to the EU and NATO is to be judged by each candidate's independent merits and performance. The SDS said that policy had taken Bulgaria off the list of countries whose citizens cannot travel visa-free to the EU, whereas Romania remains on that list. MS[C] END NOTE[31] IN KALMYKIA, THE KHAN IS STILL GUARDING HIS YURTBy Jorunn BrandvollElista, the capital of Kalmykia, can probably claim to be the only city in Russia that has a statue of Ostap Bender, the hero from the classic Soviet novel "Twelve Chairs," and even a street is named after him. Ostap Bender's passion is to play chess, and it is also the passion of the president of Kalmykia, Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, who is also the president of the International Chess Federation. However, what people sometimes forget is that Bender first and foremost is fond of cheating people, and many would claim that this is another trait Kirsan and Ostap have in common. No one has forgotten that Ilyumzhinov promised everyone $100 if he won the first presidential elections in 1993, or how he had promised to turn the republic into a second Kuwait where everyone would be able to afford mobile phones within 10 years. Eight years after he was elected, the republic is among the poorest subjects of the Russian Federation, and the lack of a proper network makes using a mobile phone difficult. And no one has seen the $100 that was promised. The people of Kalmykia were reminded of the broken promises this summer when a documentary on ORT on 29 May put the spotlight on the Kalmyk president -- just one of a series of portraits of erratic republican presidents that has been presented on ORT recently. Never before had a central TV station drawn such a critical picture of the Kalmyk president. On the day the program was aired, the most important regime newspaper, "Izvestiya Kalmykii," printed a denouncement of the program, and many feared that the authorities would shut off ORT temporarily to prevent people from watching, as they have done on previous occasions. Nevertheless, the program was aired, and while most ordinary citizens of Kalmykia were likely not shocked by the facts documented by Yelena Masiuk in the program, the documentary prompted State Duma deputies in Moscow to raise questions about Ilyumzhinov's personality cult. Three weeks later, the federal Audit Commission concluded its search for irregularities in the use of budget funds in Kalmykia between 1998 and 2000. They found that 315.6 million rubles ($10.6 million) from republican and federal budgets and from nonbudget funds had been spent illegally on other purposes, including 57.7 million on the soccer club Uralan. Other millions were spent on the preparations for the World Chess Olympiad in Elista in 1998. The sum spent on the soccer club was 2.5 times more than what the republic spent on education during that period. At the same time, the republic is a net recipient of federal transfers. Furthermore, it allows companies that are registered in the so-called offshore zone in Kalmykia tax reductions that combined are 2.8 times larger than the income of the republic's budget. Nobody knows quite where all the money these 5, 400 companies pay to be registered in Kalmykia ends up, according to the website strana.ru on 22 June. However, it is unlikely that the ORT documentary and the Audit Commission investigation signal the end of Ilyumzhinov's presidency. Around the same time that the program was aired and the Audit Commission's results were publicized, the Russian State Duma passed a law stipulating that Kalmykia was one of 10 regions whose leaders would be allowed to run for a third or even fourth term in office. New elections are coming up next year. Meanwhile, the republican elite seems as united as before, and one can still sense the fear among the common people in Elista of speaking out against the regime. From time to time some people go out on Elista's main square to protest against harsh living conditions, but such demonstrations are normally swiftly suppressed by the police. On 4 July, three women were badly beaten up by police after they attempted to stage a hunger strike on the main square. Too many have lost their livelihoods for criticizing the regime, and the loss of one's job is a serious threat in a region where unemployment is high. A high school director was dismissed after she let her pupils go to school on the president's birthday, which is a holiday in the republic. The only people openly criticizing the regime is a small group of opposition politicians -- about 50 of them in the entire republic -- who mainly represent Yabloko, the Communist Party, and the Union of Rightist Forces (SPS). The 1998 murder of Larisa Yudina, the editor of the opposition newspaper "Sovetskaya Kalmykia segodnya," seems to have brought about a slight improvement in the conditions for the opposition, since it generated a lot of negative publicity about the methods used by the Ilyumzhinov regime to curb the opposition. Since 1997, the opposition has challenged in court a large number of republican laws that violate federal laws. With additional pressure from federal officials, more than 70 such laws have been abolished thus far. However, life in opposition is still not easy. So far the opposition does not have formal representation in the republican parliament. The last elections in Kalmykia were conducted last February, for the city council of Elista. The opposition candidate for the mayor of Elista, Vladimir Kolesnik, was prevented from registering for the election, but eight other opposition candidates participated in the elections for the city council. Only two were elected, Ivan Ryzhkov from Yabloko and Natalya Manzhikova from the SPS, but shortly thereafter the authorities found an excuse to annul the results of the election in Ryzhkov's district. Since then, the opposition has tried to prove through a series of court proceedings against the city authorities that the apparatus of the incumbent mayor of Elista, Radii Burulov, resorted to serious election fraud to prevent opposition candidates from winning in four of the districts. The proceedings have not yet been concluded. While earlier this year the republican prosecutor and Supreme Court showed a certain amount of independence by declaring some republican decrees unconstitutional, this time they have again proved to be on the side of republic and local authorities. Press freedoms have also not improved much in Kalmykia. The newspaper, "Sovetskaya Kalmykia segodnya," is still printed outside the republic, in Stavropol, and is sold on the street in the republic without government permission, as is the Communist newspaper "Leninskii put." As next year's presidential elections draw closer, repression is likely to increase again. The attempt to set fire to an apartment owned by Yabloko member and "Sovetskaya Kalmykia segodnya" journalist Svetlana Ilinskaya on 25 July may be one harbinger of things to come. In the upcoming elections, the opposition is putting its resources behind Kolesnik, who like all other alternative candidates was prevented from participating in the last presidential elections in 1995, but who proved to have quite strong popular support both in the subsequent republican parliament elections in 1998 and the State Duma elections in 1998. However, thus far the most serious competitor to the incumbent president seems to be Aleksandra Burataeva, the former TV news anchorwoman. She will have the advantage of representing Unity. However, a new person in the presidency of the republic may not bring residents a respite from corruption and repression: Many in the republic think that even if Ilyumzhinov is not granted the opportunity to run for a third term, he will nevertheless succeed in finding a loyal replacement to "guard his yurt" in his absence. Jorunn Brandvoll is a graduate student at the University of Oslo and a graduate scholar at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. 15-08-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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