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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 142, 01-07-30

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 5, No. 142, 30 July 2001


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION POLITICIAN ANNOUNCES INTENTION OF IMPEACHING PRESIDENT
  • [02] FORMER ARMENIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE OUSTED AS PARLIAMENT FACTION LEADER
  • [03] ARMENIAN COURT REJECTS PARLIAMENT GUNMAN'S REQUEST FOR PRISON TRANSFER
  • [04] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT SETS NEW TERMS FOR ENERGY PRIVATIZATION
  • [05] IRAN SENDS MIXED SIGNALS IN OIL DISPUTE WITH AZERBAIJAN...
  • [06] ...AS TURKMENISTAN AGAIN PROTESTS AZERBAIJAN'S DEVELOPMENT OF DISPUTED DEPOSITS
  • [07] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTY OUSTED FROM HEADQUARTERS
  • [08] GEORGIAN JOURNALISTS PROTEST COLLEAGUE'S MURDER
  • [09] GEORGIA, RUSSIA CLOSER TO AGREEMENT ON CLOSURE OF GUDAUTA MILITARY BASE?
  • [10] RUSSIA SEEKS TO REASSURE KAZAKHSTAN OVER CPC
  • [11] KYRGYZSTAN'S SOUTHERN BORDER REPORTED QUIET
  • [12] NGOS APPEAL TO KYRGYZ PRESIDENT
  • [13] EBRD WARNS TURKMENISTAN
  • [14] TURKMEN PRESIDENT UNVEILS NEW ECONOMIC PROJECT

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [15] MACEDONIAN TALKS PRODUCING ONLY 'WORDS'...
  • [16] ...OR SOME PROGRESS?
  • [17] ATTACK ON MACEDONIAN MINISTER
  • [18] MORE PROTESTS IN SKOPJE
  • [19] DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN IN MACEDONIA, SERBIA?
  • [20] KOSOVA VOTING REGISTRATION BEGINS IN SERBIA, MONTENEGRO
  • [21] BELGRADE SEEKS TO SET TERMS FOR SERBIAN PARTICIPATION IN KOSOVA VOTE
  • [22] SERBIAN MINISTER VISITS KOSOVA
  • [23] ORBAN, NASTASE AGREE TO DISAGREE ON HUNGARIAN STATUS LAW...
  • [24] ...DISCUSS QUOTAS OF ROMANIAN TEMPORARY WORKERS IN HUNGARY
  • [25] ROMANIAN PREMIER WARNS OF ROMANIAN ECONOMY OVERHEATING
  • [26] MOLDOVAN MINISTERS SACKED
  • [27] MOLDOVAN PRIME MINISTER IN BUCHAREST
  • [28] MOLDOVAN DEPUTY STRIPPED OF PARLIAMENTARY IMMUNITY
  • [29] MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT TURNING AGAINST IMF?
  • [30] BULGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTER TO MAINTAIN EU MEMBERSHIP AS PRIORITY
  • [31] BULGARIANS HAVE RECORD LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN NEW PREMIER

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [32] OPPOSITION HOPES COMMON PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IS BEST OF BOTH WORLDS

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION POLITICIAN ANNOUNCES INTENTION OF IMPEACHING PRESIDENT

    Right and Accord parliamentary bloc leader Artashes Geghamian told a press conference in Yerevan on 26 July that he plans to forge a broad coalition of opposition parties with the aim of launching impeachment proceedings against President Robert Kocharian, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. He argued that as long as Kocharian remains president "there will be no improvement in the situation in Armenia," and that Kocharian's failure to improve the economic situation has undermined Armenia's statehood and thus constitutes "treason," which is an impeachable offense. Geghamian described Kocharian's support base as "a bunch of ministers who have a criminal past and are liable for criminal prosecution." LF

    [02] FORMER ARMENIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE OUSTED AS PARLIAMENT FACTION LEADER

    Three members of the parliament faction of the National Democratic Union (AZhM) voted on 27 July to remove the party's chairman, former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian, as faction leader, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Unlike Manukian, the three advocate closer cooperation with the present Armenian leadership. They are believed to have the backing of the AZhM's sole cabinet minister, David Vartanian. One of the three, Seyran Avakian, told journalists the move against Manukian was intended to strengthen the party's collective leadership, But Manukian's supporters believe the campaign against him is aimed at sabotaging his chances in the presidential election due in 2003. A meeting scheduled for 28 July of the AZhM's 46-person governing council failed to take place for lack of a quorum as those members who favor cooperation with the authorities failed to attend. LF

    [03] ARMENIAN COURT REJECTS PARLIAMENT GUNMAN'S REQUEST FOR PRISON TRANSFER

    The Yerevan court hearing the case of the five gunmen who in October 1999 gunned down eight senior officials in the Armenian parliament building rejected on 27 July a request by one of the gunmen, Karen Hunanian, to be transferred from the Ministry of National Security prison to that of the Interior Ministry, Arminfo and RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Hunanian said that he has overheard guards at the National Security Ministry prison threaten his life and that of his brother Nairi, who masterminded the attack. LF

    [04] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT SETS NEW TERMS FOR ENERGY PRIVATIZATION

    Parliament deputies on 27 July narrowly approved in the second and final reading the government's proposed amended terms for the privatization of four energy distribution networks, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The revised law allows one bidder to buy a controlling stake in all four networks, instead of a maximum of two, and removes the ban on owners of distribution networks also holding more than a 25 percent stake in a power generating company. Some parliament deputies alleged that the vote was illegal, accusing pro-government deputies of voting on behalf of deputies who were not present. The first attempt to privatize the four networks failed earlier this year when none of the four shortlisted Western companies submitted a final bid (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 April 2001). LF

    [05] IRAN SENDS MIXED SIGNALS IN OIL DISPUTE WITH AZERBAIJAN...

    In a statement issued on 27 July, IRNA said Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi welcomes the statements made the previous day by Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliev during a meeting with Iranian Ambassador Ahad Gazai to the effect that Baku hopes to solve all disputes with Tehran on ownership of Caspian oil deposits by means of peaceful negotiations (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 July 2001). On 28 July, Gazai flew to Tehran for what were said to be routine consultations not connected with the Caspian dispute, ITAR-TASS reported. On 29 July, a senior Iranian official warned that Iran might advance territorial claims on parts of Azerbaijan that 150 years ago were ruled by Iran, AP reported. Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said that Azerbaijan's leaders "should govern the country in such a way that Iranians would not demand the return of Azerbaijan to the Motherland." LF

    [06] ...AS TURKMENISTAN AGAIN PROTESTS AZERBAIJAN'S DEVELOPMENT OF DISPUTED DEPOSITS

    The Turkmen Foreign Ministry on 27 July sent a further official note to Baku protesting what it termed the "illegal" exploitation by an international oil consortium of the Azeri and Sharg Caspian oil fields to which Turkmenistan lays claim, Reuters and Interfax reported. The note warned Baku to halt such unilateral activity. Ashgabat issued a similar warning in May (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 and 9 May 2001). Meanwhile, Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Abbas Abbasov met in Ashgabat on 27 July with Turkmen government officials to seek agreement on the rescheduling of Baku's $36 million debt for Turkmen natural gas. LF

    [07] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTY OUSTED FROM HEADQUARTERS

    Officials from Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economic Development on 27 July formally witnessed the handover by the opposition Azerbaijan National Independence Party (AMIP) of the building AMIP has occupied for the past several years, Turan reported. The ministry had issued an ultimatum to AMIP to vacate the building within five days (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 and 20 July 2001). LF

    [08] GEORGIAN JOURNALISTS PROTEST COLLEAGUE'S MURDER

    Some 200 journalists staged a demonstration in Tbilisi on 27 July to protest the murder of Giorgi Sanaya, a journalist with the independent TV station Rustavi-2 who was found shot dead the previous day (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 July 2001), Caucasus Press reported. Several Georgian journalists linked Sanaya's killing with his exposes of corruption. President Eduard Shevardnadze cancelled a visit to Baku planned for 27 July and took personal control of the investigation into Sanaya's death. LF

    [09] GEORGIA, RUSSIA CLOSER TO AGREEMENT ON CLOSURE OF GUDAUTA MILITARY BASE?

    During an eighth round of talks, which took place in Moscow on 27 July, Georgian Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov made some progress toward overcoming the disagreement on the timetable and terms for completion of the Russian withdrawal from the Gudauta military base in Abkhazia. Russia should have vacated that facility by 30 June (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 July 2001). Interfax quoted Klebanov as saying the two sides agreed that Moscow will withdraw all military personnel from the base except for a "security group" that will guard the remaining military hardware until it can be removed. But on 26 July, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov hinted that Moscow will not abandon its request that the facility be turned over to the Russian peacekeeping troops deployed under the CIS aegis along the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia. LF

    [10] RUSSIA SEEKS TO REASSURE KAZAKHSTAN OVER CPC

    Visiting Russian Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko said after meeting in Almaty on 27 July with Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev that Moscow will not create customs barriers to the export of Kazakh crude via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline to Novorossiisk, Interfax reported. Khristenko said he is unaware of the reasons for the postponement, announced the previous day, of the 6 August ceremonial filling of the first tanker with oil from that pipeline (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 July 2001). A Kazakh government press release had blamed the postponement on the "negative attitude" of the Russian side. Russian Premier Mikhail Kasyanov had implied in Moscow in early June after talks with Toqaev that the two sides had resolved the customs dispute that had halted the pumping of oil into the pipeline (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 May and 6 June 2001). LF

    [11] KYRGYZSTAN'S SOUTHERN BORDER REPORTED QUIET

    No further exchanges of fire have been reported on Kyrgyzstan's southern border with Tajikistan since those of 24-25 July, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 28 July, quoting local officials. Tajik Deputy Premier Saidamir Zuhurov and Kyrgyz Security Council Secretary Misir Ashirkulov were scheduled to meet in northeastern Tajikistan on 27 July to discuss joint action against Islamic militants, according to Asia Plus-Blitz on 26 July, but no reports are available of the outcome of that meeting. LF

    [12] NGOS APPEAL TO KYRGYZ PRESIDENT

    The heads of 16 Kyrgyz NGOs on 27 July sent a letter to President Askar Akaev registering their concern at amendments approved by the government on 18 July creating additional formalities with which NGOs must comply, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. They noted that any public organization or mass media outlet may now be classified as criminal, and that any criticism of the authorities may be construed as being directed against the constitutional system. LF

    [13] EBRD WARNS TURKMENISTAN

    Jean Lemierre, the president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said in London on 27 July that the lending organization will review all operations in Turkmenistan unless that country implements economic and democratic reforms, Reuters reported. The bank issued a similar warning last year after President Saparmurat Niyazov refused to meet with a senior visiting EBRD official (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 April 2000). LF

    [14] TURKMEN PRESIDENT UNVEILS NEW ECONOMIC PROJECT

    Niyazov on 23 July announced that a tomato cannery under construction in his native village of Kypchak near Ashgabat will become Turkmenistan's first joint-stock company under his personal control, Interfax reported. That move is intended as the first step toward the economic transformation of three comparatively well-off rural districts just outside the capital. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [15] MACEDONIAN TALKS PRODUCING ONLY 'WORDS'...

    James Pardew, the U.S. envoy participating in the Macedonian peace talks, said in Ohrid that the talks that began 28 July have produced only "words, not more," the BBC's Serbian Service reported on 30 July. Francois Leotard, who is Pardew's EU counterpart, said: "We've been advancing millimeter by millimeter, word by word. They're very tough negotiations because there's a heavy emotional charge, and daily clashes out on the ground... I'm not certain of success and it has to be said frankly. But we do not have the right to abandon this and leave things to the logic of war," Reuters reported. President Boris Trajkovski is hosting the talks at his official home on Lake Ohrid. The participants, in addition to himself and the two envoys, are leaders of the two largest ethnic Macedonian and two largest ethnic Albanian parties. The biggest sticking point appears to be the language issue (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 July 2001). PM

    [16] ...OR SOME PROGRESS?

    Ethnic Macedonian Social Democratic negotiator Georgi Spasov told dpa in Ohrid on 30 July that the talks are making progress. "Macedonian will remain the basic official language in the whole of Macedonia and international relations, but minority groups of more than 20 percent of the local population will be allowed to use their own language... With the language problem resolved, Albanians will get wide opportunities for official use of their own language," he said, adding that progress was also made on local police issues. An unnamed source from the ethnic Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity told Reuters that "yesterday's talks resulted in a feeling that the obstacles concerning the use of the Albanian language have been overcome, which leaves us hopeful that the talks will end successfully." PM

    [17] ATTACK ON MACEDONIAN MINISTER

    Defense Ministry officials reported several breaches of the cease-fire by the ethnic Albanian rebels of the National Liberation Army (UCK) in the Tetovo and Kumanovo areas over the weekend, dpa reported on 29 July. That night on the Skopje-Tetovo highway, gunmen attacked a convoy that included Interior Minister Ljube Boskovski, AP reported. He blamed the UCK and called on the police and army to take urgent measures against the "terrorists." No one was reported injured in the brief firefight. An unnamed "Western diplomat close to the negotiations" told the news agency that "the attack will clearly have a negative impact on the talks, because [Macedonian] nationalists will try to exploit it." PM

    [18] MORE PROTESTS IN SKOPJE

    At a protest meeting in front of the parliament building in Skopje on 28 July, refugees who have been recently expelled from their homes by the UCK demanded a quick military solution of the current crisis, Skopje newspapers reported on 30 July (see also "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 July 2001 and "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 31 July 2001). The refugees also demanded that the UN Security Council send troops to Macedonia, and The Hague-based tribunal prosecute members of the UCK as war criminals. The protesters demanded that both President Trajkovski and Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski should explain their peace plans to the public within the next 48 hours or resign. The meeting was also used as a platform for the World Macedonian Congress (SMK), which called for Trajkovski's resignation. Some protesters carried anti-NATO signs, one of which read: "NATO is trying to Albanianize the country." UB

    [19] DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN IN MACEDONIA, SERBIA?

    Press reports have appeared in Macedonia and elsewhere in the region in recent weeks, suggesting that NATO -- and in particular the U.S. -- is actively helping the UCK in Macedonia. One such report claimed that a KFOR helicopter landed arms for the UCK on Macedonian territory, which brought a protest to NATO from the Macedonian authorities and a swift denial from Secretary-General Lord George Robertson (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 July 2001). The German weekly "Der Spiegel" in its 30 July issue strongly suggests in an article entitled "The Americans' Hidden Agenda" that the U.S. is aiding the UCK. The article adds that this alleged American role in fomenting the conflict in Macedonia is irritating "the Europeans." In yet another twist, the Serbian news agency Beta reported that the U.S. authorities recently approached Serbian officials to request a "99-year lease" on the Camp Bondsteel area in Kosova and on several Yugoslav military facilities. The U.S. Embassy in Belgrade and Yugoslav Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic denied the report, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 30 July (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 23 March 2001). PM

    [20] KOSOVA VOTING REGISTRATION BEGINS IN SERBIA, MONTENEGRO

    Refugees from Kosova living in Serbia and Montenegro began registering to vote for the 17 November Kosova general elections, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 30 July. Those eligible to register include persons who have lived in Kosova for at least five years, persons born in the province, or persons with a least one parent who was born there. PM

    [21] BELGRADE SEEKS TO SET TERMS FOR SERBIAN PARTICIPATION IN KOSOVA VOTE

    Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica said in Belgrade on 28 July that the authorities will "soon" publish a list of measures that they want implemented before Belgrade will approve the participation of Kosova Serbs in the 17 November vote, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 and 27 July 2001). The authorities will issue their final recommendation on the elections in late September. PM

    [22] SERBIAN MINISTER VISITS KOSOVA

    In Gracanica on 28 July, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic said that Kosovar Serbs should register for the elections regardless of what Belgrade's final recommendation will prove to be, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Local Albanians protested his visit to the province, calling it a provocation. They also objected to his being elected head of the management committee of the Trepca metallurgical complex as a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which provided the UN mandate for Kosova in 1999. PM

    [23] ORBAN, NASTASE AGREE TO DISAGREE ON HUNGARIAN STATUS LAW...

    On 28 July, following talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Romanian Premier Adrian Nastase announced that proposed solutions to problems regarding the Status Law will be analyzed by Romanian and Hungarian authorities between now and mid-September, when the Romanian- Hungarian committee established by the bilateral treaty will be convened. Meanwhile, Nastase said the Romanian government's position remains the same: Romanian authorities do not accept the extraterritorial implementation of the law, as the protection of the rights of the minorities is handled by the Romanian state. Nastase also particularly emphasized his concern regarding the selection procedures for the beneficiaries of the law. For his part, Orban said, "We don't have hidden intentions and we are trying to meet the obligation in the Hungarian Constitution according to which the government is responsible for Hungarians abroad." He added that this obligation is particularly important as Hungary will soon join the European Union while some of its neighbors will not. LB

    [24] ...DISCUSS QUOTAS OF ROMANIAN TEMPORARY WORKERS IN HUNGARY

    During the talks, Orban suggested that the quota for Romanian temporary workers in Hungary should increase from 8,000 to 17,000, while his Romanian counterpart claimed that this limitation should be simply eliminated. Nastase said in eliminating this quota a major economic problem addressed by the Status Law would disappear. They also discussed Hungarian assistance in Romania's negotiations with the EU, as well as the ongoing topic of a Budapest-Bucharest highway. Regarding the latter issue, Orban said Hungary could contribute financially only if the highway would cover the northeast of Transylvania. LB

    [25] ROMANIAN PREMIER WARNS OF ROMANIAN ECONOMY OVERHEATING

    Premier Nastase said on 27 July that surprisingly good agricultural output could boost 2001 economic growth beyond initial forecasts, the Mediafax news agency reported. "With good results in agriculture, the gross domestic product growth might exceed 5 percent," Nastase stated during his weekly teleconference with local authorities. He also warned of the need to prevent the economy from overheating, emphasizing the need to keep a tight lid on income policies. The 2001 budget targeted GDP growth at 4.1 percent, to build on last year's 1.6 percent recovery after three years of recession. Romania also hopes to achieve a GDP rise of about 5.2 percent in 2002 and annual growth rates of 4-6 percent through 2005. LB

    [26] MOLDOVAN MINISTERS SACKED

    Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin signed decrees on 27 July dismissing Foreign Affairs Minister Nicolae Cernomaz and Energy Minister Ion Lesanu. Both had been members of the previous government; although neither one of them was a member of the Communist Party, they did support it. In a press release from the Moldovan presidency that was only presented to state television, no reason was given for the action. According to Infotag, Voronin announced a possible government shuffle on 26 July. The news agency also said that the best-placed candidate to be foreign minister, given the stated intention of Moldova to join the Belarus-Russia Union, is the current Moldovan ambassador in Moscow, Valeriu Bobutac. LB

    [27] MOLDOVAN PRIME MINISTER IN BUCHAREST

    Romanian Premier Nastase said during a joint press conference in Bucharest on 27 July with his Moldovan counterpart Vasile Tarlev that Moldova might be involved in the construction operations at the Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant. The proposal is part of an energy package discussed by the two premiers, which also included plans for electricity delivery to Moldova next winter and an aide-memoire regarding Moldovan debts to Romania for past energy deliveries. The two men signed several cooperation agreements. During his one-day visit to Bucharest, Tarlev also met with President Ion Iliescu and discussed common steps the two countries can take regarding border control and international support from Bucharest for Chisinau with international institutions. LB

    [28] MOLDOVAN DEPUTY STRIPPED OF PARLIAMENTARY IMMUNITY

    The Moldovan parliament voted on 27 July to strip Christian-Democrat deputy Nicolae Alexei of his parliamentary immunity. In a session in which only deputies from the Communist Party and the Braghis Alliance participated, the vote was 63 to four. As a top anticorruption official in the previous government, General Alexei had made public a cigarette-, alcohol-, and fuel- smuggling scheme that involved, according to the general, high state officials. The investigation was later blocked and Alexei and his colleagues were accused of illegally filing criminal records, as well as sequestering goods and submitting their value to the state budget. Alexei said that the case against him is "fake." During the parliamentary debate, Alexis was supported by Braghis Alliance deputy Mihai Plamadeala, a former interior minister, who claimed that "in the Republic of Moldova anybody who tries to fight against organized crime gets in the situation that Alexei is in, because the criminal structures have become so connected with state institutions that it is impossible to solve a more serious crime and not bother some of the officials." LB

    [29] MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT TURNING AGAINST IMF?

    Prime Minister Tarlev said on 26 July that Moldova will tell an IMF delegation this week that it wants changes to the Memorandum on Financial and Economic Policies that it agreed to with the IMF. The IMF delegation will be led by Richard Haas, and will be in Moldova for three weeks to assess the fulfilment of the memorandum. Haas said the first week of the visit will focus on collecting information on Moldova's latest economic moves and on reviewing main economic and financial indicators. The rest of the trip will consist of talks with government officials, including the proposed changes. Haas said that the agenda of the mission includes changes to the budget and developments in the farming sector. Haas said Moldova has met many of the commitments in the memorandum or would do so in the near future. However, he added that some unclear situations exist. Meanwhile, Chisinau papers on 26 July quoted President Voronin as having said during a meeting with retirees that Moldova "can exist without the loans used by the international banks to cheat beneficiaries the same way goats are summoned with the help of a cabbage in front of their noses." LB

    [30] BULGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTER TO MAINTAIN EU MEMBERSHIP AS PRIORITY

    Solomon Passi said in Sofia on 30 July that Bulgaria's accession to the EU remains a "long-term and strategic priority," AP reported. Passi, who made his comment after addressing EU ambassadors to Bulgaria, said he hopes "that work on the country's successful Euro-integration will continue and that we will be able to keep up the brisk pace." Belgian Ambassador to Bulgaria Edmond De Wilde said that Bulgaria has achieved considerable progress toward membership in a short time. Bulgaria and the EU have closed 11 of the 31 chapters needed for EU accession. PB

    [31] BULGARIANS HAVE RECORD LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN NEW PREMIER

    A Gallup Poll released on 27 July shows that some 63 percent of respondents have confidence in the abilities of Premier Simeon Saxecoburggotski to live up to his election promises, AFP reported. The percentage is a record for a new premier in office in Bulgaria, and is considerably higher than the 50 percent confidence rating given to him in a similar poll in June. Former Premier Ivan Kostov had a 51 percent confidence level when he took office. Over 1,100 people took part in the poll. PB

    [C] END NOTE

    [32] OPPOSITION HOPES COMMON PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IS BEST OF BOTH WORLDS

    By Jan Maksymiuk

    Four politicians supported by the Belarusian opposition -- Mikhail Chyhir, Syamyon Domash, Syarhey Kalyakin, and Pavel Kazlouski -- said on 21 July that they will withdraw from the presidential race and form a united campaign behind Uladzimir Hancharyk, the head of the Trade Union Federation of Belarus. In this way, the five complied with their previous pledge to propose a single candidate from a broad coalition of democratic and opposition forces in a bid to oust dictatorial President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The Central Election Commission reported last week that only four persons -- incumbent President Lukashenka, Liberal Democratic Party leader Syarhey Haydukevich, Domash, and Hancharyk -- supplied no fewer than the 100,000 signatures required for their registration.

    The choice of Hancharyk came as a surprise to the Coordinating Council of Democratic Forces, which loosely unites major opposition parties and influential NGOs in Belarus. The council would have preferred Domash, the former governor of Hrodna Oblast, as the single democratic candidate. The independent weekly "Nasha Niva" on 23 July disclosed some criteria that were taken into account by those responsible for fielding Hancharyk against Lukashenka.

    According to the weekly, the results of sociological surveys were the basic arguments in favor of Hancharyk. Public opinion polls indicate that one-fourth of Lukashenka's supporters would also be inclined to vote for Hancharyk, and one-fifth for Domash. A small score for Hancharyk. In addition, in Lukashenka's "traditional regions of support" -- Mahileu, Homel, and Brest oblasts -- Hancharyk is viewed less negatively than Domash by voters. The tacit assumption is that the city of Minsk, Hrodna Oblast, as well as the western raions of the Minsk and Vitsebsk oblasts will for the most part vote for anybody except Lukashenka. Another score for Hancharyk. Hancharyk also has a somewhat higher popularity rating than Domash among those older than 50 and with pensioners, and it is assumed that younger generations will opt for "non-Lukashenka" in the presidential ballot. One more score for Hancharyk.

    "Nasha Niva" also suggested that the recently created leftist movement named "For a New Belarus" had an important say in selecting Hancharyk. The movement is led by former Agriculture Minister Vasil Lyavonau and includes such important figures as former Supreme Soviet speakers Stanislau Shushkevich and Mechyslau Hryb, as well as a number of Soviet-era nomenklatura representatives who have been marginalized, shunned, or even persecuted by the Lukashenka regime.

    According to the weekly, "For a New Belarus" believes that only a "revolt" by the current regime's nomenklatura -- which primarily means a refusal to falsify the vote count -- will unseat Lukashenka. And this revolt, Lyavonau's group argues, is more likely to occur when Lukashenka is challenged by Hancharyk, because the 61-year-old Hancharyk is a typical Soviet-era nomenklaturshchik, whom many in the Lukashenka administration allegedly regard as an acceptable successor to the incumbent president.

    Indeed, Hancharyk's Soviet-era career was that of an exemplary Party functionary. Hancharyk graduated from the Belarusian Institute of National Economy (1961) and the Academy of Social Sciences under the Central Committee of the CPSU (1976). In the 1960s, he worked as an economist and a party functionary at the raion level, in the 1970s he advanced to assume oblast-level positions, and in the 1980s he was given a job in the Central Committee of the Belorussian Communist Party. Since 1986, he has been chairman of the Trade Union Federation of Belarus.

    There were virtually no problems for Hancharyk in his trade union post during the Soviet-era or in the pre-Lukashenka period of independent Belarus. Serious troubles appeared in the late 1990s, when Lukashenka -- apparently desiring to gain more control over the industrial working class, which he saw as the biggest threat to his rule -- launched a smear campaign in the media against Hancharyk. Lukashenka's controlling services conducted several thorough inspections of the Trade Union Federation's activities and books in an unsuccessful bid to find something that would discredit Hancharyk. The latest inspection began shortly after Hancharyk on 13 July made public documents implicating top law-enforcement officials (and possibly Lukashenka) in the killing of opposition figures in Belarus.

    The Trade Union Federation of Belarus has between 2 and 3 million members. If all of them (and their families) voted for Hancharyk on 9 September, Lukashenka would face a humiliating defeat. But it seems that Hancharyk's pull among his trade unionists has been considerably eroded by the Lukashenka administration, which has made enormous efforts to organize a rival trade union federation and managed to chip a number of trade union organizations at some factories in Minsk and elsewhere from Hancharyk's monolith. When Hancharyk called last year for a 30,000-strong trade union rally in Minsk to protest the appalling economic situation, only some 3,000 turned up.

    One aspect of the presidential campaign is certainly auspicious for the Belarusian opposition. If in fact Domash withdraws from the race, there will be only three contenders: Lukashenka, Hancharyk, and Haydukevich. This automatically puts Hancharyk in the public spotlight, a development extremely undesirable for Lukashenka who, according to many commentators, wanted to register as many contenders for the presidency as possible in order to confuse the electorate and dissipate democratic votes.

    Of course, there is also Haydukevich, the leader of the local replica of Vladimir Zhirinovsky's infamous party. But few people in Belarus or Russia treat Haydukevich seriously. Belarusian democrats are inclined to believe that Haydukevich is Lukashenka's headache rather than their own, since Haydukevich appeals to the same electorate as the incumbent president. If this is so, then another thing the democrats need is "a revolt of the nomenklatura." Such a revolt seems to be the sine qua non for defeating Lukashenka, because he staffed territorial election commissions (formed at the oblast and raion levels) entirely from his own people and, according to recent reports by RFE/RL's Belarusian Service correspondents, is repeating the trick with voting precinct commissions.

    30-07-01


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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