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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 124, 01-06-29Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 124, 29 June 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIA, RUSSIA REACH AGREEMENT ON DEBTS, NUCLEAR FUELEnergy Minister Karen Galustian told journalists in Yerevan on 28 June that Armenia has paid off part of its gas debt to Russia and Gazprom has agreed to write off the remaining $8.3 million under a debt-swap deal with the Armenian government, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Galustian also said that Russia has dropped its earlier insistence that it will provide further consignments of fuel for the Medzamor nuclear power plant only after Armenia pays $17 million in outstanding debts for earlier shipments of nuclear fuel. The Russian Atomic Energy Ministry will provide the next shipment of fuel on receipt of an advance payment of $4 million; the remaining $9.8 million will be paid over a period of three months, and the earlier $17 million debt between October or November 2001 and June or July 2002, Galustian said. He also pledged that the government will pay by the end of August all wage arrears to Medzamor employees, who last week threatened "unpredictable consequences" if their salaries for the past five months were not paid within two weeks (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 June 2001). LF[02] ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT UNVEILS FINAL STAGE OF PRIVATIZATION PROGRAMState Property Minister David Vartanian on 28 June presented to the parliament the government's plan for privatizing over 900 medium and large enterprises over the next three years, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Enterprises up for sale include four large metallurgical companies engaged in extracting and processing copper and molybdenum ore, and several chemical factories, including the huge Nairit plant in Yerevan. The left- wing opposition opposes the sell-off; the People's Party of Armenia argues that the state should retain a 51 percent stake in all major enterprises. LF[03] FORMER AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER CONCERNED AT RUSSIA'S 'IMPERIAL POLICY'Vafa Guluzade, a former Azerbaijani foreign policy adviser, told Turan on 28 June he is disturbed at the implications of the constitutional law adopted by the Russian State Duma that provides for the admission of new subjects to the Russian Federation (see above). He suggested that following the failure of attempts to use the CIS as a means of restoring the USSR, Moscow has now opted for annexing part or all of the territory of neighboring states. He said the law, which he described as "the direct continuation of the Russian government's imperial policy," is directed in the first instance against Georgia as a means of thwarting construction of the Baku-Ceyhan oil-export pipeline and implementation of the TRACECA transport network. It could also, he added, be adduced to justify the incorporation into the Russian Federation of either Armenia or Tajikistan, both of which he claims are economically dependant on Russia, or of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. LF[04] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION POLITICIANS HOPE MILOSEVIC EXTRADITION MAY SERVE AS PRECEDENTNuraddin Mamedli, a leading member of the opposition Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, told Turan on 29 June that the handing over to The Hague-based international war crimes tribunal of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is the greatest achievement of the international community since World War II, Turan reported. Mamedli expressed regret, however, at what he termed "double standards" that have prevented the analogous extradition of Armenian President Robert Kocharian and other Armenian political figures whom he claims instigated terrorism and separatism in Nagorno-Karabakh and the massacre of Azerbaijanis. Rashad Rzakuliev of the Liberal Party of Azerbaijan and Mirmahmud Miralioglu of the conservative wing of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party also said they hope the present Armenian and Karabakh leaderships will ultimately be sent to The Hague. LF[05] PARLIAMENT SPEAKER REAFFIRMS GEORGIA'S ASPIRATION TO NATO, EU MEMBERSHIPReporting on his recent visit to Brussels at a press conference in Tbilisi on 28 June, Georgian parliament speaker Zurab Zhvania affirmed that President Eduard Shevardnadze's 1999 statement that Georgia "will knock energetically on NATO's doors" by 2005 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 October 1999) was only partially a joke, Caucasus Press reported. "I believe Georgia must fulfill the necessary procedures and apply for full membership in the North Atlantic Alliance," Zhvania said. He added that NATO Secretary- General Lord George Robertson gave a high assessment of the joint NATO exercises held earlier this month in western Georgia. Zhvania similarly termed accession to the EU as one of Georgia's "strategic goals," noting that the EU has made an "unprecedented" decision to provide Georgia with unspecified help in guarding its borders. LF[06] RUSSIAN MILITARY OFFICIAL DENIES PULLOUT FROM ABKHAZ BASE TO BE DELAYEDDefense Ministry spokesman Colonel Nikolai Deryabin on 28 June rejected as untrue media reports earlier that day that unnamed Russian military commanders had asked Chief of General Staff General Anatolii Kvashnin to delay for one month, until 1 August, the final withdrawal of the last Russian forces from the Gudauta military base in Abkhazia, Russian agencies reported. Deryabin said Moscow will abide by its commitment made at the November 1999 OSCE summit in Istanbul to pull out of that base by 1 July. LF[07] KAZAKHSTAN APPOINTS FIRST WOMAN TO UPPER ECHELONS OF DEFENSE MINISTRYPresident Nursultan Nazarbaev on 27 June named First Deputy Economy and Finance Minister Zhanat Ertilesova a deputy defense minister, Interfax and RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported the following day. Ertilesova will be responsible for the financing of the ongoing reforms of Kazakhstan's armed forces. LF[08] UPPER CHAMBER OF KAZAKHSTAN'S PARLIAMENT EXTENDS DEADLINE FOR LEGALIZATION OF SHADOW CAPITALFollowing a lengthy debate, the Senate (the upper chamber of Kazakhstan's parliament) voted on 27 June to prolong for a further 10 days the period during which illegally exported capital may be returned with impunity to Kazakhstan, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. Some senators advocated extending the deadline until September, noting that the $71 million returned so far amounts to only approximately 10 percent of the anticipated sum. The Mazhilis (the lower parliament chamber) failed earlier on 27 June to vote on a proposal by Finance Minister Mazhit Esenbaev to prolong the amnesty period (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 2001). LF[09] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT ADVISES AGAINST USING HIS LYRICS FOR NATIONAL ANTHEMIn a letter addressed to Mazhilis deputies that was read on 28 June, President Nazarbaev asked them to withdraw their proposal to set to music as the country's new anthem a poem whose authorship some attribute to him, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. Other observers say the poem in question was written by a Kazakh poet and published in a literary journal several years ago (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 December 2000 and "RFE/RL Kazakh Report, " 3 May 2001). LF[10] KYRGYZ OFFICIALS AGREE TO DISCUSS CHINESE BORDER ACCORDS WITH NGOSKyrgyz parliament speaker Abdygany Erkebaev, Foreign Minister Muratbek Imanaliev, and senior government official Salamat Alamanov have agreed to meet on 2 July with NGOs to discuss the controversial 1996 and 1999 accords under which Kyrgyzstan cedes some 15,000 hectares of its territory to China, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 28 June, quoting the chairman of the Human Rights Movement of Kyrgyzstan, Tursunbek Akunov. Parliament deputy Azimbek Beknazarov criticized that planned meeting, noting that the government officials have refused for the past month to come to parliament to answer deputies' questions about those accords (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 2001). LF[11] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT UNVEILS PROPOSED ELECTION LAW AMENDMENTSAskar Akaev submitted to the parliament on 28 June proposed amendments to the existing election law that affect local elections and the election on party lists to the national parliament, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 28 June, quoting the presidential press service. Those amendments allow only those parties that have been registered with the Justice Ministry for a minimum of six months prior to the election date to participate in the party-list vote. LF[12] TAJIKISTAN CONFIRMS REBEL LEADERS STILL AT LARGETajik Interior Ministry troops are still trying to locate and neutralize former field commanders Rakhmon Sanginov and Mansur Muakkalov and their remaining followers, who have split up into small groups following the death or capture of dozens of their number earlier this week (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 and 26 June, 2001), ITAR-TASS reported on 28 June. Some of those groups have reportedly retreated to the Ramit gorge northeast of Dushanbe. On 27 June, "Vremya novostei" quoted unidentified commentators in Dushanbe as saying that Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov would have preferred to try to negotiate with Sanginov, but ceded to pressure from other influential Tajik politicians, including Dushanbe mayor Mahmudsaid Ubaidullaev, who advocated the use of force. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[13] YUGOSLAVIA APPEALS FOR HELP AT DONORS CONFERENCEYugoslav Deputy Prime Minister Miroljub Labus told the donors conference in Brussels on 29 June that his country badly needs foreign assistance after more than a decade of misrule by former President Slobodan Milosevic, Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 2001). "We are appealing to donors to share with us the burden of transition," he added. Catherine Day of the European Commission said that the EU and its member states are willing to "put their money where their mouth is." The "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" wrote that the Serbian population has great expectations of the conference. The World Bank estimates that Yugoslavia will need $4 billion over the next four years. Yugoslavia, like several of its neighbors, must deal simultaneously with problems of postcommunist transition, emergence from authoritarian nationalist rule, and postwar reconstruction. PM[14] FORMER SERBIAN LEADER IN THE HAGUEFollowing the decision of the Federal Constitutional Court to suspend the decree permitting extradition of Yugoslav citizens, the Serbian government ruled on 28 June that federal institutions had ceased to function, and that the Serbian government is constitutionally empowered to make its own decisions, RFE/RL reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 2001). The government then decided to extradite Milosevic immediately to The Hague, where he arrived early the next morning via a U.S. SFOR base near Tuzla. Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic said in a nationwide television broadcast on 28 June that Milosevic's extradition was necessary to end Serbia's isolation. Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica, who was not consulted on the move, told a television audience later the same evening that the extradition was "illegal and unconstitutional" (see "End Note" below). Members of the Montenegrin Socialist People's Party (SNP) said that they will end their coalition with the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS). Milosevic is not expected to appear before the tribunal's judges before 2 July. PM[15] SERBIAN PRESIDENT TO TURN HIMSELF IN?Serbian President Milan Milutinovic, who is an indicted war criminal, has decided to turn himself in to The Hague, the BBC reported on 29 June from Belgrade, quoting the Bosnian Serb news agency SRNA. Milutinovic decided to go to the tribunal to testify against Milosevic, with whom he was indicted in 1999 for war crimes in Kosova. Milutinovic reportedly made his decision after several undisclosed meetings with representatives of the tribunal. Milutinovic's office staff refused to confirm or deny the report. PM[16] WORLD LEADERS HAIL EXTRADITION OF SERBIAN DICTATOR...Speaking in Jerusalem on 28 June, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said: "I am pleased that [Milosevic] is being brought to justice to face the international criminal tribunal. I am pleased that American pressure played a considerable role in that... Now that he is in the custody of The Hague authorities, this will make it easier for us to be more forthcoming at the donors conference and in subsequent days and weeks," RFE/RL reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 2001). U.S. President George W. Bush, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, and other leaders from the U.K., France, and the EU hailed the move. Annan said in New York: "I think what has happened today, which few thought was possible -- here we see one of the most powerful men in the Balkans today in the hands of the court at The Hague -- should go to show all leaders who are bound to abuse their power that in today's world, their peoples and the international community will demand accountability and will ensure that impunity is not allowed to stand." PM[17] ...AS DO SOME OF THE NEIGHBORS...Speaking in Zagreb on 28 June, Croatian President Stipe Mesic voiced satisfaction over the handover, saying Milosevic was "the main culprit" responsible for the suffering and wars of the Balkans in the 1990s, RFE/RL reported. Mesic added: "I won't cry for him. Back in 1991 I told him we would meet in court. I am happy about it... He was convinced that he would write history as a victor, but he lost the wars and will now have to face justice for all that he has done. His transfer will enhance mutual trust and cooperation in the region," Reuters reported. Speaking in Sarajevo, Bosnian Foreign Minister Zlatko Lagumdzija called the transfer a decisive step in the destruction of the plan to build ethnically pure states, RFE/RL reported. But Baton Haxhiu, the editor of Kosova's most important daily, "Koha Ditore," said in Prishtina that the Serbian government is "morally bankrupt" because it extradited Milosevic only because of the donors conference, AP reported. PM[18] ...AND THE HAGUEThe chief prosecutor of the UN tribunal, Carla Del Ponte, said in The Hague on 28 June that Milosevic's extradition is an "important milestone for international criminal justice." Del Ponte stressed, however, that the transfer marks only the beginning of a lengthy legal process, and that much work still needs to be done to bring Milosevic's case to justice. Many indicted war criminals remain at large, especially in Serbia and the Republika Srpska. Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Mladen Ivanic said in Banja Luka that Milosevic's extradition creates "a new situation," Deutsche Welle's Bosnian Service reported. PM[19] RUSSIA SLAMS EXTRADITION OF SERBIAN DICTATORIn Moscow on 29 June, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said in a statement: "This will without doubt play into the hands of separatists in Kosovo and Montenegro wanting to leave the [Yugoslav] federation. They will probably not pass up the chance to use the current situation. And if events develop in this way, it is not difficult to imagine what it could lead to," Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 23 March 2001). Ivanov stressed that Serbian democratic institutions are fragile, adding: "Those now trying to use Yugoslavia's economic difficulties to achieve their ends are, of course, taking on very serious responsibility not only for the future of Yugoslavia, but also for the situation throughout the Balkans." PM[20] THREE ADDITIONAL INDICTED SERBS SENT TO HAGUE?Peacekeepers arrested two leaders of the former Croatian Serb para-state and sent them to The Hague for trial for war crimes, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported from Banja Luka on 28 June, quoting Beta. Milan Martic, who is a former civilian leader of the Republika Srpska Krajina, and military commander Mile Mrksic arrived in The Hague from Tuzla. They were joined by fellow indictee Dusan Knezevic from Prijedor. Hina later quoted Florence Hartmann, who is a spokeswoman for Del Ponte, as saying that the men have not arrived in The Hague. PM[21] MACEDONIAN PRESIDENT PRAISES BUSH'S RULINGPresident Boris Trajkovski said in Skopje on 28 June that Bush's move to cut off funds to ethnic Albanian guerrillas and bar their leaders from visiting the U.S. is very serious and concrete, Deutsche Welle's Macedonian Service reported. He called on Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland, which have large ethnic Albanian communities, to follow Bush's example. Trajkovski added: "I honestly hope that the world will recognize the root of the crisis in Macedonia," AP reported. But Peter Feith, who is NATO's special envoy to Macedonia, told the Dutch paper "Allegemine Dagblad" that although Trajkovski is "ready to seek a peaceful solution...many ministers in his government think that a military solution can be imposed... The problem is the Macedonian government," he added (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 2001). PM[22] U.S. PEACEKEEPERS ARREST 30 GUERRILLAS IN KOSOVAKFOR said in a statement on 29 June that U.S. peacekeepers the previous day arrested 30 suspected ethnic Albanian guerrillas in Kosova near the border with Macedonia and the Presevo valley, dpa reported. Three of the Albanians had been wounded. PM[23] VERHEUGEN RECOMMENDS LIFTING VISA REQUIREMENTS ON ROMANIANSGuenter Verheugen, the EU commissioner for enlargement, on 29 June announced that the European Commission has decided to recommend that visa requirements for Romanian citizens be lifted as of 1 January 2002, an RFE/RL correspondent in Brussels reported. EU spokesman Jean Christophe Filori said that, in view of "the progress made by the Romanians in their border-control system and visa-control system," the commission decided to make the recommendation, which must now undergo several further stages before it is put in practice (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 2001). In related news, Romania will enforce passport requirements on Moldovan citizens as of 1 July. Previously, citizens of that country could enter Romania by showing their ID cards. MS[24] ROMANIAN PREMIER REJECTS 'FINANCIAL TIMES' CRITICISM OVER RESITA...Prime Minister Adrian Nastase on 28 June rejected criticism in the "Financial Times" over the decision to nullify the contract for the sale of the Resita steel-producer CSR to the U.S. company Noble Ventures, Romanian radio reported. Nastase said Noble Ventures is unable to even pay $10,000 in lawyers' fees, let alone meet contractual obligations to invest in the plant's modernization or pay salaries. "They had overstretched the rope. It's high time they go home, recruit some capital and look us up when they've learned how to operate." The daily wrote that the Romanian decision sends an alarming signal to the Council of Europe and the IMF regarding Bucharest's readiness to accelerate privatization, on which it already lags behind other EU candidates. Meanwhile, the strikers in Resita on 28 June have decided to continue their hunger strike until all their demands are met. MS[25] ...VISITS EGYPTOn a one-day visit to Egypt on 28 June, Nastase held talks with his Egyptian counterpart Atef Ebeid and with President Hosni Mubarak, Romanian Radio reported. The discussions concentrated on reviving bilateral economic relations, and several preliminary agreements were reached on boosting exports of some 10,000 Romanian-made tractors and importing cotton and rice from Egypt. The sides also discussed the conflict in the Middle East. Nastase said he will pay a visit to Israel shortly and that Bucharest is ready to offer its "good offices" to the conflicting sides if asked to do so by them. MS[26] ROMANIA PRESENTS ANTI-INFLATION VISIONFinance Minister Mihai Tanasescu and National Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu on 28 June presented to journalists their joint program to combat inflation up to 2005, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The program envisages a 30 percent inflation rate in 2001, a rate of 20-22 percent in 2002, and a drastic drop to under 10 percent between 2004-2005. They said the success of the program is conditional on a low budget deficit of between 3 and 3.5 percent; the continuing of privatization; and improving financial discipline, particularly regarding revenue collection. Isarescu said hard- currency reserves have reached "optimal level" and the National Bank will no longer intervene to influence the rate of the leu. But they warned that a continuation in the decline of the euro, or drastic hikes in international oil prices, might negatively impact the program's success. MS[27] MOLDOVA JOINS BALKAN STABILITY PACTMoldova on 28 June formally joined the Balkan Stability Pact, becoming the first former Soviet republic to do so, an RFE/RL correspondent in Brussels reported. President Vladimir Voronin said that Chisinau "realizes that the pact is not a one-way traffic road" and is therefore "prepared to work hard toward democratization, a market economy, and sound social security programs." Voronin said he hopes joining the pact will boost investments in his country but is aware that "no miracles" should be expected and that Moldova must demonstrate willingness to "make the most" out of its pact membership. Voronin also met with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson. MS[28] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT SIGNS AGREEMENT WITH NATOAlso on 28 June, Voronin signed at NATO headquarters an agreement under which the sides will work jointly to destroy Moldova's stock of antipersonnel land mines and surplus munitions, AP reported. The costs of the operation are to be covered by the Partnership for Peace Trust Fund. MS[29] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT AMENDS ADVERTISING LAWThe parliament on 28 June amended the law on advertising, doing away with the provision that obliged commercials to be broadcast in the "state language" in addition to the language of the customer's choice, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The opposition Braghis Alliance and the Popular Party Christian Democratic (PPCD) opposed the amendment. MS[30] MOLDOVAN OPPOSITION LEADER TO LOSE PARLIAMENTARY IMMUNITY?Prosecutor-General Vasile Rusu on 28 June asked the parliament to lift the immunity of PPCD leader Iurie Rosca to allow for his prosecution on charges of having physically attacked a woman employed by a Chisinau print shop, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. Parliamentary speaker Eugenia Ostapciuc passed the request to the Immunity Committee, which is to make its recommendations to the house after studying the case. Rosca said in reaction that Rusu is "demonstrating his loyalty" to Party of Moldovan Communists parliamentary group leader Victor Stepanciuc, who has given the prosecutor-general "direct orders" to launch criminal proceedings against him. Rosca added that public opinion will now witness "what means the communists use to stifle the opposition." MS[31] BULGARIA PROPOSES POOL OF EAST EUROPEAN COMMUNIST-ERA FILESMetodi Andreev, the chairman of the special Bulgarian commission on examining the files of informers of communist secret police, on 28 June told journalists that a joint database on such files should be set up by the former communist countries, Reuters reported. Andreev said his commission intends to forward this proposal to Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania, saying the communist secret services in those countries were all "branches of the KGB." MS[32] BULGARIANS OPTIMISTIC ON POST-ELECTORAL FUTUREA public opinion poll conducted by the MBMD polling institute shows that 56 percent of Bulgarians believe former King Simeon II will be able to produce tangible improvements in the lot of ordinary Bulgarians, AFP reported on 28 June. A significant minority of 28.5 percent expects no change after the elections and 9.4 percent believe living standards will drop. Seventy-four percent of the respondents said they have confidence in Simeon and only 17 percent said they do not trust him. MS[33] BULGARIAN DEFENSE MINISTER SAYS MACEDONIA'S DISINTEGRATION 'POSSIBLE'Outgoing Defense Minister Boiko Noev on 28 June told journalists that he does not exclude the possibility of Macedonia's disintegration, and that "if the international community allows this to happen, the region as a whole will be faced with serious threats," BTA reported. Noev said Bulgaria's government continues to hope that the conflict in Macedonia will be peacefully solved but that "regrettably, things are not developing in that direction." He said Bulgaria is "taking necessary measures to avoid any threat to its national interests and security" but did not specify what those measures are. Asked whether the Macedonian government should hold talks with the ethnic Albanian rebels, Noev said the Bulgarian government "will not give recipes" on how to solve the ongoing conflict. MS[C] END NOTE[34] SERBIA: VIDOVDAN AND THEREAFTERBy Patrick MooreThe Serbian political landscape will be dominated by three important questions following the extradition of former President Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague. How these matters are dealt with could go far to determine the country's long-term as well as more immediate future. Perhaps the most momentous date in Serbian history is 28 June, which is known as Vidovdan, or St. Vitus's day. Vidovdan 1389 witnessed the battle of Kosovo Polje, which ended Serbia's independence for nearly five centuries. In 1914 on that date, the Serbian student Gavrilo Princip assassinated the Habsburg Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, setting off the chain of events that led to World War I. The Yugoslav kingdom got its first constitution on 28 June 1921, which was subsequently known as the Vidovdan Constitution. In 1948, Stalin expelled Yugoslavia from the Soviet bloc on Vidovdan. As of 28 June 2001, Vidovdan will have one additional meaning in Serbian history (see "RFE/RL Newsline," above). And it was not, moreover, just the first time any former head of state was sent to an international tribunal to be tried for war crimes, but the beginning of a process in which a single man will be tried for crimes that many of the victims have been prone to ascribe to the entire Serbian nation. One of the main purposes of the tribunal is precisely to establish individual guilt in place of collective guilt as a first step toward reconciliation and building a joint future in the region. The speed at which the Serbian government decided in favor of extradition and sent Milosevic to The Hague reportedly came as a surprise to virtually all concerned, including the staff at the tribunal. Many details and questions remain unclear. But what is certain is that three issues have emerged to dominate the Serbian political landscape for the foreseeable future. The first is the balance of political forces in Serbia. The governing Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) coalition is very broad-based. It was united only by its desire to end Milosevic's dictatorship and replace it with a more democratic system. Since that goal was achieved at the end of 2000, many observers have predicted that the coalition's break-up is only a matter of time. Such a prospect now seems more realistic than before. The DOS is clearly split in its views over extradition, with the majority apparently siding with Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic against Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica. When the next elections take place -- and most observers agree that early elections are all but a foregone conclusion -- it is conceivable that Kostunica and Djindjic would be the main rivals. Kostunica is far and above the most popular politician in Serbia and is likely to win additional votes from Milosevic supporters. But Djindjic and his allies represent a larger number of political parties than Kostunica does and they will have time to convince the voters that extradition was the right thing to do, especially if participants in the donors conference are generous. Djindjic and his friends will try to persuade the electorate that they are the most competent leaders and that Kostunica, as Djindjic has said, is a link to the past. If they succeed, Djindjic and his allies could be well on the way to remaking Serbia in a way more open to the West and to European norms than would Kostunica, who is more of a traditional nationalist with an attachment to Russia. These issues lead to the second question that will dominate Serbian politics, namely the future of the Yugoslav federation, of which Kostunica is president. In deciding to extradite Milosevic, the Serbian government ruled that federal institutions had ceased to function. Many observers would argue, moreover, that the federation has long been limited to the government in Belgrade and its diplomatic contacts, since the Montenegrin government of President Milo Djukanovic does not recognize the federal government or even its currency. The announcement on Vidovdan by the pro-Milosevic Montenegrin opposition Socialist People's Party (SNP) that it is leaving the coalition with DOS to protest the extradition could thus simply be the final nail in the federation's coffin. Some observers would add that Djindjic and Djukanovic probably agreed between themselves long ago to scuttle the federation and deprive Kostunica of a job. Rumors of such an agreement have never been conclusively proven or disproven. It should nonetheless be recalled that Djindjic fled from Milosevic's police in 1999 by going to Montenegro, where he had ample time to get to know the leadership and political conditions. The third issue that will figure prominently in Serbian politics is that of the extradition or surrender of additional war criminals. Serbian President Milan Milutinovic is only the most prominent of many, including former Defense Minister General Dragoljub Ojdanic. As Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Mladen Ivanic has said, moreover, the extradition of Milosevic opens a new chapter for the Republika Srpska, which has yet to turn over any indicted war criminal to The Hague. Many commentators have already begun to ask whether the extradition of Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic or his commander, General Ratko Mladic, can be far off now that Milosevic is in The Hague. The speed and thoroughness with which the authorities in Serbia (and the Republika Srpska) locate and extradite additional war criminals will go far to affirming the principle of individual guilt over collective guilt. And for the Serbian public itself, extradition marks the start of a break with a political culture that led to four lost wars and the acquisition of an unenviable reputation abroad. 29-06-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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