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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 115, 01-06-18Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 115, 18 June 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] OSCE MISSION IN CHECHNYA RESUMES ACTIVITIESOSCE Chairman in Office Mircea Geoana formally opened the OSCE representation in the northern Chechen town of Znamenskoe on 15 June, Interfax reported. Geoana said the OSCE's work in Chechnya will be "as comprehensive as possible," but the Russian human rights commissioner for Chechnya, Vladimir Kalamanov, whose headquarters are also in Znamenskoe, said at the ceremony, which was also attended by Chechen administration head Akhmed-hadji Kadyrov, that the OSCE should ignore political aspects of the Chechen conflict and concentrate on the humanitarian situation. He added that it should work closely with Kadyrov's administration. Speaking in Moscow on 15 June, a spokesman for the Russian Justice Ministry said the OSCE mission will pay that ministry an annual fee of 13 million rubles (about $450,000) for security that will be provided by the ministry's penitentiary guards. Chechen Prime Minister Stanislav Ilyasov, for his part, said "the mission workers will be provided with safe and unimpeded access to any point in Chechnya" if they notify the republic's leadership about their planned itinerary and destination beforehand, Interfax reported. LF[02] ARMENIAN PRISONERS LAUNCH HUNGER STRIKEThirty inmates of a prison in the eastern Armenian province of Sevan have embarked on a hunger strike to protest their exclusion from the recently proclaimed amnesty to mark the 1,700th anniversary of the adoption of Christianity as Armenia's state religion, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Some 2,100 prisoners are eligible for release under the amnesty (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 June 2001), which does not extend to persons serving time for murder or other serious crimes. LF[03] AZERBAIJANI WAR INVALIDS STAGE DEMOSome 300 members of the society representing Karabakh war invalids staged a protest demonstration in Baku on 16 June to demand the release of several of their fellow invalids detained by police in February following a mass hunger strike to demand an increase in their allowances, Turan reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 February 2001). The protest was sanctioned by the municipal authorities and no incidents were reported. LF[04] MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS SCHEDULE NEW MEETINGAccording to an as yet unconfirmed Interfax report of 16 June, unnamed Russian diplomatic sources said agreement was reached at a meeting in Moscow on 15 June between Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov and the French co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, Philippe de Suremain, that the U.S., French, and Russian Minsk Group representatives will meet in Malta on 22-24 June to discuss ways over surmounting the problems that have arisen in the Karabakh peace process (see "End Note" below). The two men "confirmed their readiness to continue to give full support to the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in their efforts to find a speedy solution to the Karabakh tangle," according to a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry. LF[05] CASPIAN LITTORAL STATES SEEK RAPPROCHEMENTDeputy foreign ministers from Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan met in Baku on 14-15 June to try to reach agreement on a declaration to be formally adopted at the twice-postponed summit of Caspian littoral states, now tentatively scheduled for October. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Quliev said the five states should attempt to overcome their differences gradually, admitting that it would be naive to expect a swift change in the position of either Iran, which argues for dividing the Caspian seabed and waters into five equally sized sectors, or Turkmenistan. Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan advocate dividing the seabed according to the existing boundaries while leaving the waters and surface for shared use. ITAR-TASS on 15 June quoted Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Ahani as saying that any new agreement on the legal status of the Caspian should be based on the Soviet-Iranian treaties of 1921 and 1940. LF[06] GEORGIA DEFIES RUSSIAN FLIGHT BANIn a move that Georgian Civil Aviation Department head Zurab Perishvili termed "groundless" and "unreasonable," the Russian Transportation Ministry on 15 June banned all flights to Russia by Georgian airlines, Caucasus Press reported. The ban was imposed because of Georgian debts of $3.7 million for Russian air-navigation services and in retaliation for Tbilisi's unilateral decision to reduce from seven to five the number weekly flights between the two capitals by three Russian and one Georgian carrier, Interfax reported. A Georgian Airlines plane flew to Moscow and back according to schedule on 16 June despite the prohibition, according to Caucasus Press. LF[07] GEORGIAN EMBASSY IN MOSCOW PROTESTS 'IZVESTIYA' ALLEGATIONSThe Georgian Embassy in Moscow has issued a statement condemning as "a provocation" an article published in "Izvestiya" on 13 June alleging that the naval maneuvers under way off Georgia's Black Sea coast, in which troops from several NATO member states are participating, are intended as preparation for an invasion of Abkhazia, Caucasus Press reported on 15 June. Georgian military officials have already denied that the exercises, about which Abkhaz authorities have expressed concern, herald military action against that breakaway republic (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13, 14, and 15 June 2001). The embassy reiterated that Georgian leadership seeks to resolve the Abkhaz conflict by exclusively peaceful means. Also on 15 June, Giorgi Baramidze, chairman of the Georgian parliament's Defense and Security Committee, similarly condemned the Russian press report as "rumors spread by those who aspire to a new escalation in Abkhazia," Caucasus Press reported. Baramidze, too, stressed that Tbilisi seeks a peaceful solution to the conflict. LF[08] GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY DELEGATION VISITS ARMENIAA Georgian delegation headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Merab Antadze traveled to Yerevan on 15 June for two days of talks on bilateral and multilateral economic and political cooperation, Caucasus Press reported. Particular attention was focussed on preparations for an upcoming session of the Intergovernmental Georgian-Armenia Commission for Economic Cooperation in late June and for President Eduard Shevardnadze's planned visit to Armenia. Meeting with the Georgian delegation on 16 June, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian characterized bilateral relations as "the most important factor for ensuring stability and security" in the South Caucasus, Caucasus Press reported. LF[09] MORE SEAL DEATHS REPORTED IN KAZAKHSTAN'S SECTOR OF CASPIANMass deaths of seals have again occurred in Kazakhstan's sector of the Caspian, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported on 15 June. A local ecology official in Mangystau said the deaths may have been caused by recent storms. No official explanation was ever given for the mass deaths of seals last year, which some experts attributed to pollution from oil-drilling rigs. LF[10] UPPER CHAMBER OF KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT BEGINS SUMMER RECESSThe People's Assembly (the upper chamber of the Kyrgyz legislature) ended its spring session on 15 June without having adopted a resolution on the two most important issues on its agenda, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Those issues are the delimitation of the Kyrgyz-Chinese border and the privatization of the state energy giant Kyrgyzenergo. Also on 15 June, the government unveiled a new five-year program to develop the energy system and make the country more self-sufficient in energy. Energy production has fallen by 55 percent since 1990. LF[11] SECOND TAJIK HOSTAGE-TAKING ENDS WITHOUT BLOODSHEDA group of former Tajik opposition fighters who are currently on the staff of the Emergency Situations Ministry took 15 members of a German famine- relief organization and four Tajik security officials hostage in a village in Tavil-Dara Oblast some 170 kilometers east of Dushanbe on 15 June, dpa reported. The kidnappers were demanding the release of four men arrested in connection with the murder in April of First Deputy Interior Minister Khabib Sanginov (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11, 12 April and 25 May 2001). The kidnappers unconditionally released four captives on 16 June and the remainder on 17 June following talks with Emergency Situations Minister Mirzo Zieev, who is himself a former opposition commander. Meanwhile, a second former opposition commander is still holding hostages whom he seized in Dushanbe last week. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[12] BOSNIAN MUSLIMS DEDICATE MOSQUE DESPITE SERBIAN RIOTERSBosnian Serb police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse "hundreds" of demonstrators in Banja Luka on 18 June, Reuters reported. The protesters sang nationalist songs and chanted anti-Muslim slogans. The rioters want to prevent work on rebuilding the 16th-century Ferhadija mosque, which Bosnian Serb irregulars destroyed during the 1992-1995 war as part of a campaign to remove all physical aspects of Bosnia's Ottoman heritage. Some 100 Muslims, guarded by police, nonetheless succeeded in laying the cornerstone for the mosque, AP reported. Muslim and foreign leaders criticized the Bosnian Serb authorities for not stopping violent protests during an attempt to begin work on Ferhadija in early May (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 and May 2001). This time, however, Banja Luka Mayor Dragoljub Davidovic promised that security will be tough, "Dnevni avaz" reported on 18 June. PM[13] PETRITSCH CALLS FOR NEW ADMINISTRATION IN BOSNIAWolfgang Petritsch, the international community's high representative in Bosnia-Herzegovina, wrote OSCE Chairman Mircea Geoana on 16 June that all international organizations in Bosnia dealing with the implementation of the 1995 Dayton peace agreement should be united, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He specifically mentioned integrating his own mission, that of the UN, and that of the OSCE. Jacques Klein, who heads the UN mission, also said recently that it is counterproductive to have so many actors on the scene, often duplicating each other's work or working at cross-purposes. PM[14] MACEDONIAN ALL-PARTY TALKS SET TO RESUMEArben Xhaferi, the ailing leader of the Democratic Party of the Albanians (PDSH), has called for the creation of the post of vice president in the Macedonian government, dpa reported from Skopje on 18 June. The post would be reserved for a member of the ethnic Albanian community who would have broad powers, including the right to veto government decisions. The news agency reported that Slavic Macedonian political leaders regard the proposal as "extreme" and called for a pause in the talks that were going on over the weekend (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 June 2001). Leaders of parties in the governing coalition were slated to resume talks in the afternoon of 18 June. The agenda centers on President Boris Trajkovski's peace plan that calls for a cease-fire, amnesty for most fighters of the National Liberation Army (UCK) who disarm voluntarily, and a greater role for ethnic Albanians in public life, AP reported. Also under discussion are possible changes to the constitution to make Albanians and their language equal to their Slavic counterparts, and to drop any references to a state religion. PM[15] U.S., ALBANIA CALL ON UCK TO END OCCUPATION OF MACEDONIAN TOWNJames Swigert, a U.S. State Department envoy, said in Tirana on 17 June that the UCK's occupation of the Skopje suburb of Aracinovo "is a potential threat to NATO supply lines" into Kosova, AP reported. His host, Albanian President Rexhep Meidani, also called on the guerrillas to withdraw "to allow political dialogue to continue." PM[16] EU DECIDING ON REPRESENTATIVE TO MACEDONIAMeanwhile, in Goteborg on 16 June, EU officials hailed Trajkovski's efforts at bringing about a settlement and pledged more aid if he succeeds. The EU wants to send a special permanent envoy to Skopje who will report to security policy chief Javier Solana. EU leaders have not, however, decided on an individual for the new job. The "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on 18 June that French President Jacques Chirac has proposed former French Defense Minister Francois Leotard, who also has the backing of German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Some unnamed smaller countries, however, have balked at what they regard as the pushiness of Paris and Berlin. A final decision is expected shortly, the daily added. PM[17] TAIWAN BREAKS RELATIONS WITH MACEDONIAMacedonian Foreign Minister Ilinka Mitreva and her Chinese counterpart Tang Jiaxuan signed a communique in Beijing on 18 June re-establishing diplomatic relations after a break of about two years, Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 and 6 June 2001). The move is expected to pave the way for Chinese support in the UN Security Council for international peacekeepers for Macedonia. Mitreva's Social Democrats always opposed the previous conservative government's decision to switch relations from Beijing to Taipei. Meanwhile, in the Taiwanese capital, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said on 18 June that Taiwan has severed relations with Macedonia, dpa reported. "The government of the Republic of China (ROC) has decided to sever its diplomatic relations with the Republic of Macedonia effective today. The ROC government will close its embassy in the Republic of Macedonia, terminate all the agreements and cooperation projects between the two countries, and withdraw its technical mission." PM[18] PUTIN BACKS SERBIAN LEADERSFollowing his meeting in Slovenia with U.S. President George W. Bush (see Part I), Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a "working visit" to Serbia on 16 and 17 June, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. He met with Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica and Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic in the first visit by a Russian leader since the collapse of former Yugoslavia and the USSR in 1991. Putin's public statements on regional affairs recalled those made by Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in March (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 23 March 2001). Putin criticized KFOR's record on providing security, which serves to embarrass NATO and support Belgrade's plan for a return of Serbian forces to Kosova (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 June 2001). He also called for a regional conference to reaffirm the inviolability of borders, which would preclude independence for Kosova or Montenegro. Moscow backs Belgrade's Balkan political agenda and hence has little, if any, influence with the ethnic Albanians of the region. Before returning to Moscow, Putin paid a brief visit to UN officials and Russian peacekeepers in Kosova on 17 June. PM[19] SLOVENIAN VOTERS OVERTURN LAW ON IN VITRO FERTILIZATIONWith a turnout of some 35 percent of eligible voters, some 72 percent of those casting their ballots voted on 17 June to annul a two-month-old law permitting single women to have in vitro fertilization, AP reported. The vote is binding and was hailed by conservative and Roman Catholic groups. The law was supported by women's rights and lesbian organizations. Gay and lesbian organizations became a visible part of the Slovenian political landscape in the 1980s, when the Alpine republic established itself socially and politically as the most pluralistic region of what was then Yugoslavia. PM[20] ROMANIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY BORN AGAINThe Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) and the Social Democratic Party of Romania (PSDR) merged on 16 June, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The formation, called Social Democratic Party (PSD) -- obviously with an eye to gaining membership in the Socialist International -- elected PDSR leader Adrian Nastase as its chairman and PSDR leader Alexandru Athanasiu as the chairman of the party's National Council. Georgiu Gingaras of the PSDR was elected as one of the PSD's 12 deputy chairmen. Four former leaders of the Democratic Party also joined the PSD. One of them, Simona Marinescu, ran for the Democratic Party's chairmanship only one month earlier. Also among those who joined are seven former Greater Romania Party parliamentarians who recently left that party and two former prominent Alliance for Romania leaders -- Doru Viorel Ursu and Marian Enache. MS[21] PARTIAL ROMANIAN LOCAL ELECTIONS SHOW APATHYPartial local elections conducted in 27 localities in Romania on 17 January were largely ignored by voters, Romanian Radio reported the next day. The ballot must be repeated in 20 out of the 27 localities on 24 June, due to voter turnout of less than 50 percent. The elections were called because the mayors in these localities had either resigned or were dismissed for irregularities. MS[22] ROMANIAN GOVERNMENT TO PROMOTE DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENTSPrime Minister Adrian Nastase was to submit to the parliament on 18 June a draft law aimed at promoting direct foreign investment, Romanian radio reported. The premier chose to submit the draft under a procedure called "governmental assumption of responsibility." Under the procedure, the bill is considered to be approved unless a motion of no-confidence is submitted within three days and approved by the legislature. The bill aims at granting benefits, mostly tax breaks and the right to import duty-free equipment for modernization, to both Romanian and foreign investors who invest more that $1 million, and further extends benefits to those investing $10 million or more. Nastase said the IMF and the World Bank are opposed to the bill, but "we shall explain again and again why we need it." He said other former communist countries grant such benefits and lure prospective capital away from Romania. MS[23] NICHOLSON PRAISES PROGRESS IN ROMANIAN CHILD CAREBaroness Emma Nicholson, the European Parliament rapporteur on Romania, on 15 June met in Bucharest with Premier Nastase and said Romania has "made notable progress" in the last two months in coping with the problem of abandoned children. Nicholson said this will be reflected in the final version of the report she submits to the European Parliament in September, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[24] ROMANIA TELLS MOLDOVA 'TREATY MUST BE REVISED'Ambassador Marcel Dinu, who heads the Romanian government's Office for Relations with Moldova, on 16 June told journalists in Chisinau that Bucharest "insists that changes be introduced" in the basic treaty between the two countries initialed last year by the Moldovan and Romanian foreign ministers, Flux reported. Dinu said Romania wants the text of the treaty to mention that both states are "Romanian" and to condemn the Ribbentrop- Molotov Pact. Dinu also said Romanian companies are interested in participating in the privatization program in Moldova, particularly in the energy sector and the wineries, but added that "for now the climate in Moldova is not friendly" to foreign investment. MS[25] MOLDOVANS RALLY AGAINST 'HISTORY OF MOLDOVA'PPCD Chairman Iurie Rosca on 15 June told a protest rally in Chisinau that the country's intelligentsia may launch mass protests against the intention of the government to replace the teaching in schools and universities of the "History of Romanians" with the "History of Moldova," Infotag reported. He said that "as of today, the struggle has been launched against those who wish to deprive us of our national and democratic achievements... We can tolerate four years of communist rule, but only if Romanian spirituality is left in peace," Rosca said, adding that "otherwise, the communists shall have to quit the political scene earlier." The rally was attended by about 100 people. MS[26] MOLDOVA TO ACCESS BALKAN STABILITY PACT THIS MONTH?Donald Kursch, the deputy coordinator of the Balkan Stability Pact, on 15 June told journalists in Chisinau that "he hopes" Moldova will become a pact member on 28 June, Infotag reported. He said that during the visit of the pact's delegation to Moldova, the country's leadership has "confirmed its European orientation and adherence to democratic values." Asked by journalists whether the program of the ruling Party of Moldovan Communists matches the pact's principles, Special Pact Commissioner Mihai Razvan Ungureanu replied that this is "Moldova's domestic affair." According to a Flux report, Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin said after meeting Kursch and Ungureanu that the pact's readiness to accept Moldova as a member "indicates the pact is also backing the political line" of Moldova's new leadership. MS[27] FORMER BULGARIAN KING WINS ELECTORAL LANDSLIDEWith over 99 percent of ballots cast in the 17 June parliamentary elections counted, the National Movement Simeon II (NDSV) is certain to have won an electoral landslide. The NDSV has 43.5 percent, more than the total of the second- and third-place formations together, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported. The outgoing ruling alliance of the Union of Democratic Forces (ODS) is second, with 18.24 percent, closely followed by the For Bulgaria Coalition, whose main component is the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The ethnic Turk Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) will also be represented in the parliament, having scored 6.75 percent. No other formation passed the 4 percent electoral hurdle. While voter turnout was fairly high (66.7 percent), it was lower than observers had expected. MS[28] BULGARIAN POLITICIANS REACT TO ELECTORAL OUTCOMEFormer King Simeon told journalists on 17 June that the NDSV will seek to form a coalition government with all parties that share its objectives, BTA reported. Outgoing Premier Ivan Kostov hinted he will resign as leader of the Union of Democratic Forces, the main component of the ODS. He told journalists: "I know what I am expected to do [and] I will do it in the right place and at the right time." Kostov said the ODS has had to "carry out some unpopular measures, we made many mistakes, and the Bulgarians had to pay a price they were unwilling to pay." BSP Chairman Georgi Parvanov said his party is ready for talks with the NDSV, on condition that the "preservation of the republic" is safeguarded and that Kostov himself is not a member of the new government. DPS leader Ahmed Dogan said there are no significant differences between the goals pursued by his party and those of the NDSV. MS[29] LIBYAN COURT SETS VERDICT DAY FOR SEPTEMBER IN BULGARIANS' TRIALThe court in Tripoli on 17 June concluded hearings in the trial of six Bulgarian medics -- five nurses and a doctor -- accused of deliberately infecting children in a Benghazi hospital with the HIV virus and set the verdict date for 22 September. The prosecutor demanded the death penalty for the six and for a Palestinian doctor charged in the case, AFP reported, citing Bulgarian television. The lawyer representing the Bulgarians rejected the charges and said they had been "violently ill-treated" during the investigation to make them confess. Both former King Simeon and President Petar Stoyanov expressed concern and the hope that the charges will "not be definitive." MS[C] END NOTE[30] PARTIES, MEDIATORS STILL HOPE FOR KARABAKH BREAKTHROUGHBy Emil DanielyanThings looked too good to be true as a team of international mediators summed up results of Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks that took place in Florida last April. With the conflicting parties said to be close to a deal after years of deadlock, never before had expectations of an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict run so high. But the unusually upbeat mood gave way to renewed uncertainty and even pessimism when senior French, Russian, and U.S. negotiators spearheading the international peace effort cancelled the next and possibly decisive round of negotiations. The meeting between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, due in Geneva in mid-June, was put off indefinitely, ostensibly to give the two leaders more time to drum up domestic support for a compromise solution. Meanwhile, according to an as yet unconfirmed Interfax report of 16 June, unnamed Russian diplomatic sources said agreement was reached at a meeting in Moscow on 15 June between Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov and the French co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, Philippe de Suremain, that the U.S., French, and Russian Minsk Group representatives will meet in Malta on 22-24 June to discuss ways to surmount the problems that have arisen in the Karabakh peace process. But officials in Baku and Yerevan now say that the omens are not really bad, while the mediators assure that a Karabakh settlement remains in the cards, insisting that the postponement of the Geneva summit does not mean that recent months' progress has been rolled back. "There is no reason to believe that we won't get an agreement this year," said one Western diplomat in Yerevan, adding that direct talks between presidents Robert Kocharian and Heidar Aliev will resume "in the near future." Carey Cavanaugh, the chief U.S. negotiator who was particularly optimistic about peace prospects in the wake of the Florida talks, declared earlier this month that the peace process is indeed "getting closer to the end. "It is a mistake to expect that this is a perfectly smooth process. It continues to accelerate, and accelerate to the very end," Cavanaugh told Armenian and Azerbaijani journalists in a televised interview from Washington. His French counterpart, de Suremain, likewise told RFE/RL on 28 May that the parties and the mediating troika are now busy "polishing" details of the Karabakh peace accord. And Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said recently that the process is "still alive," urging the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to remove "complications" that led to the postponement of the Geneva meeting. Those complications apparently emerged during the co-chairs' regular tour of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Karabakh last month. Yet precisely what went wrong is unclear. Some Armenian officials have claimed privately that Aliev unexpectedly backtracked on agreements reached with Kocharian in Paris last March and in Key West a month later. However, Yerevan has avoided directly blaming Baku, saying only that the slowdown was not caused by the Armenian side. Azerbaijani officials, for their part, have blamed the last-minute glitch on a "nonconstructive" Armenian stance. As for the mediators, they are anxious not to blame either of the parties. A Western diplomat familiar with the negotiating process told RFE/RL that Aliev and Kocharian were simply given more time "to do their homework" of selling an impending Karabakh accord to their suspicious publics. After returning home from Key West "both of them became a bit concerned that publics in both countries are not prepared for a mutually acceptable compromise agreement. The publics needed a bit more time to digest and understand what that would mean," the diplomat said. The Karabakh issue is heavily exploited by the more hard-line opponents of Aliev and Kocharian. Both leaders will be vulnerable to opposition attack if they press ahead with major concessions. That a framework agreement on resolving the Karabakh dispute was reached at their Paris meeting mediated by French President Jacques Chirac is almost certain. A source close to the mediators said the "Paris principles" will form the "basis" of a new peace plan the Minsk Group has been working on. Their content is being kept strictly confidential. But in the words of Oskanian, the Paris principles are in line with the three key points of the Armenian position on the issue: Karabakh's "nonsubordination" to Azerbaijan, a land corridor linking the disputed enclave to Armenia, and firm international guarantees for its status. This boils down to placing Azerbaijan and Karabakh under a loose Bosnia-type confederation. It is understood that Baku would in return be guaranteed unfettered communication with its Nakhichevan exclave via Armenia's Meghri district. Whether or not that would require Yerevan to give up some of its sovereignty over the strategic area is not yet clear. The issue is highly sensitive and hotly debated in Armenia, with the opposition warning Kocharian against any concessions on Meghri. For the moment, Armenian leaders are sanguine about what they think they will be offered by the mediators. According to Oskanian, the two presidents have built a "really good basis" after 17 face-to-face meetings in just over two years. Meanwhile, sources say the American, French, and Russian co-chairs will decide "over the next several weeks" and at their 22-24 June meetings in Malta on their next steps. Whether their declared objective to eliminate the main factor of instability in the south Caucasus this year is realistic will become clear shortly afterward. Emil Danielyan is a correspondent in RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau. 18-06-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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