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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 112, 01-06-13Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 112, 13 June 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES AMNESTY BILLDeputies voted unanimously on 12 June at the end of a two-day debate to approve President Robert Kocharian's proposal to declare a general amnesty to mark the 1,700th anniversary of the adoption of Christianity as Armenia's state religion, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The amnesty extends to some 2,100 persons, or one-third of the country's prison population. Of those, almost 1,250 will be released and a further 870 will have their sentences reduced. It is not clear whether the amnesty applies to former Education Minister Ashot Bleyan, who was sentenced last December on corruption charges (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 December 2000 and 21 May 2001). LF[02] ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT OPPOSES PROPOSED PENSION INCREASEMinisters on 12 June rejected as not economically feasible a proposal by the Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun (HHD) to raise state pensions, which currently average $10 per month, by up to 30 percent, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. State Social Security Fund head Frunze Musheghian said the government cannot raise the 13 billion drams ($23.6 million) that he calculated the pension hike would cost. The HHD has challenged that figure, saying it is too high. LF[03] AZERBAIJANI PARLIAMENT RATIFIES OIL CONTRACT...The Milli Mezhlis on 12 June ratified the production-sharing agreement signed in January between the Azerbaijan State Oil Company SOCAR and Russia's LUKoil on rehabilitating the Zykh and Hovsany oil fields, ITAR- TASS and RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 January 2001). Those fields, which have been in exploitation for some 50 years, contain residual reserves estimated at 33.3 million tons. SOCAR President Natik Aliev said that the cost of renewed exploitation of the two deposits is estimated at $225 million. LF[04] ...AS AZERBAIJAN STATE OIL COMPANY SEEKS TAX BREAKS FOR OIL IMPORTSSOCAR has asked the Azerbaijani government to exempt the country's oil refineries from paying import duties and VAT on crude imported for refining in Azerbaijan, Glasnost-North Caucasus reported on 12 June. The company argues that such tax breaks would boost output. Azerbaijani refineries are currently working at only 50 percent of capacity following a recent agreement with Russia's Transneft to increase to 2.5 million tons the amount of oil extracted by SOCAR to be exported this year via the Baku- Novorossiisk pipeline. LF[05] AZERBAIJANI PARLIAMENT PLANS TO FORM 'KARABAKH' FACTIONSeven independent and opposition parliament deputies announced on 12 June their plans to create a new parliament faction named Karabakh, Turan reported. The faction intends to protect the interests of war invalids and internally displaced persons and to ensure that the position adopted by the Azerbaijani leadership toward resolving the Karabakh conflict is "fair." The seven deputies will seek simultaneously both to recruit further members and to persuade fellow legislators to amend the parliament's statutes to lower the current minimum number of deputies required to register a new faction from the present 25. The Azerbaijani parliament has a total of 125 deputies. LF[06] GEORGIAN OPPOSITION STILL OPPOSES PLANNED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTSOpposition parliament deputies on 12 June walked out of a session of the parliament's Legal Issues Committee to demonstrate their rejection of the amendments to the Georgian Constitution proposed by President Eduard Shevardnadze, Caucasus Press reported. Those amendments provide for the introduction of a Cabinet of Ministers headed by a premier (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 4, No. 19, 21 May 2001). The opposition again rejected that model as "unacceptable," saying that it would transform the presidency into a "monarchy." Legal Issues Committee Chairman Zurab Adeishvili said the previous day that no alternative proposals have been tabled except for a draft by the opposition Industrialists' Faction. Meanwhile parliament speaker Zurab Zhvania denied on 12 June that if the amendments are passed he will seek the post of premier, Caucasus Press reported. Georgian media have for several weeks identified Zhvania as the most likely candidate for that post. LF[07] UN ENVOY CALLS FOR RESUMPTION OF GEORGIAN-ABKHAZ TALKSDuring talks in Sukhum on 12 June, Dieter Boden, the UN secretary-general's special envoy for the Abkhaz conflict, urged Abkhaz Prime Minister Anri Djergenia to end the Abkhaz side's boycott of further sessions of the UN- sponsored Coordinating Council and to embark on the implementation of confidence-building measures agreed on during talks in Yalta in March, Caucasus Press reported. In early May, Abkhazia made further participation in the work of the Coordinating Council contingent on measures by Georgia to halt the activities on Abkhaz territory of Georgian guerrillas. Boden expressed concern at the impasse in talks between the two sides, and at the Abkhaz side's rejection of an invitation from the Georgian government to observe the military and naval maneuvers with NATO that got underway on 12 June on the Georgian Black Sea coast south of Abkhazia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 June 2001). LF[08] UIGHUR ACTIVIST FOUND MURDERED IN KAZAKHSTANDilbirim Samsakova, who was reported missing from her home in Almaty late last month (see "RFE Newsline," 8 June 2001) was found dead in the town of Qapshaghay, Almaty Oblast, last weekend, RFE/RL's bureau in the former capital reported on 12 June. She had been hit on the head with a blunt object. Up to 1,000 Uighurs from Almaty and neighboring Kyrgyzstan attended her funeral on 11 June. LF[09] KYRGYZ DEMONSTRATORS CALL ON PRESIDENT TO RESIGNSome 100 supporters of imprisoned former Kyrgyz Vice President Feliks Kulov staged a protest in Bishkek on 12 June to demand his acquittal and release, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The protest was timed to coincide with a Supreme Court session to review Kulov's appeal against his January sentence (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 January 2001), but that session was indefinitely postponed. The protesters marched on the government building calling on President Askar Akaev to resign. Police used force to break up the protest and detained three activists from Kulov's Ar-Namys party. LF[10] BOTH CHAMBERS OF KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT REVIEW BORDER AGREEMENT WITH CHINAThe Legislative Assembly (the lower chamber of Kyrgyzstan's parliament) began on 12 June reviewing the 1996 and 1999 bilateral agreements on the delimitation of the Kyrgyz-Chinese border, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Some deputies have called for the annulment of those agreements, which cede tracts of Kyrgyz territory to China (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 June 2001). Also on 12 June, Prime Minister Kurmanbek Bakiev and Foreign Minister Muratbek Imanaliev briefed the People's Assembly (the upper chamber) on the border agreements, after which the chamber voted to postpone further discussion of the issue until the fall session since the texts of the two agreements are not yet available. The People's Assembly did, however, begin debating a Memorandum of Intent signed in February between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan on a possible exchange of border territories (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 and 27 April 2001). LF[11] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT LOWER HOUSE ELECTS NEW DEPUTY CHAIRMANThe Legislative Assembly on 12 June elected to the post of deputy speaker the former deputy head of the government staff, Bolot Kudaibergenov, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. He replaces Omurbek Tekebaev, who resigned under pressure last month (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 May 2001). LF[12] TAJIK FIELD COMMANDER TAKES POLICE OFFICERS HOSTAGESenior members of the Tajik opposition were engaged on 12 June in negotiations with former Tajik field commander Rakhmon Sanginov in an attempt to persuade him to release seven police officers whom he had taken hostage in eastern Dushanbe the previous day, ITAR-TASS reported. Sanginov told RFE/RL's Tajik Service on 12 June that he took the police officers hostage in order to secure the release of an unspecified number of his followers who were detained last week. He released three hostages on 12 June but still holds four. Earlier on 12 June, Interior Minister Khumdin Sharipov announced the release of all the hostages and termed the incident "a misunderstanding." Sanginov is one of several former opposition field commanders who refused to disarm following the signing of the 1997 peace agreement. LF[13] UZBEKISTAN SENTENCES 73 TAJIKS FOR ABETTING ISLAMIST MILITANTSFour separate courts in Tashkent have handed down prison sentences ranging from three to 18 years on 73 ethnic Tajiks from Uzbekistan's southern Surkhandarya Oblast accused of supporting fighters of the banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who invaded Uzbekistan last summer, Western agencies reported. The accused were charged with terrorism, complicity in murder, and seeking to overthrow the constitutional order. A Tashkent-based human rights activist said the accused confessed to accepting money to help the militants, but that the prosecution failed to prove their direct involvement in the killing by the militants of some 20 Uzbek army troops. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[14] NATO HOLDING 'CRISIS TALKS' ON BALKANSTop NATO leaders, including U.S. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell, were to attend talks in Brussels on 13 June that would go beyond the originally planned focus on Bush's plans for missile defense, the "International Herald Tribune" reported. The "hastily arranged talks" were to deal with how to prevent the conflict in Macedonia from spinning out of control and include "the possibility of the eventual use of NATO peacekeeping troops to stabilize" the situation there (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " "End Note," 12 June 2001 and below). The daily reported that "three [undescribed] teams from [NATO] are already on their way to Macedonia, diplomats said..., to serve as an advance unit of military advisers to the government" (see "RFE/RL South Slavic Report," 7 and 14 June 2001). PM[15] NATO TO HELP WITH MACEDONIAN PEACE PLAN?The "International Herald Tribune" added on 13 June that "the NATO teams, apparently involving only a few dozen men at this stage, also will examine ways in which the alliance could help with security issues if President Boris Trajkovski of Macedonia follows through on a peace plan that his government put forward on [12 June]. That plan includes an amnesty for the rebels and their disarmament with NATO supervision." Trajkovski has invited leaders of the main political parties -- ethnic Macedonian and Albanian alike -- to meet with him at Lake Ohrid later in the week to discuss details of his plan. Reuters reported on 13 June that NATO Secretary- General Lord George Robertson will go to Skopje on 14 June. PM[16] FORMER U.S. AMBASSADORS CALL FOR 'FIRM ACTION' IN THE BALKANSDemocrat Richard Holbrooke and Republican Jeane Kirkpatrick, both former U.S. ambassadors to the UN, wrote in the "International Herald Tribune" of 13 June that "NATO needs to make clear that it will stay the course in Bosnia and Kosovo, and that it will not allow Macedonia to be destroyed -- that it will do what is necessary now to establish a settlement and enforce it -- before conflict in Macedonia threatens not only peace in the Balkans but the transatlantic partnership." The former ambassadors warned that "failure to take firm action now threatens to reverse all that NATO action has gained, prolong the time that NATO troops must stay in the region, and cause political ramifications and human misery that could extend well beyond Balkan boarders." PM[17] GREEK MINISTER SAYS MACEDONIA MAY NEED INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTIONForeign Minister George Papandreou said in Athens on 12 June that "if the political process does not go forward [in Macedonia], the international community will be called on to intervene militarily as well," AP reported. He had just returned from a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. Government spokesman Dimitris Reppas added, however, that the idea of intervention "is just a thought at this stage." But the next day, Papandreou repeated his argument: "The deployment of an international peacekeeping force will be unavoidable in the future. Greece has an immediate interest that peace comes to this region because there are many Greek companies that have invested funds in this country... A peacekeeping mission which has the approval of the Skopje government is something the Greek government would look at positively," dpa reported. For historical reasons, Greece, like Bulgaria, has ruled out any direct role for its troops should the international community intervene in Macedonia. PM[18] MACEDONIAN RELIEF CONVOY MAKES THIRD ATTEMPTReuters reported from Bedinje on 13 June that a relief convoy carrying food and medicine will attempt to reach guerrilla-held villages near Kumanovo after being turned back the two previous days by Macedonian troops. On 12 June, the Macedonian soldiers held back the 26 trucks because journalists were in the convoy. The guerrillas insisted that journalists be present to witness the restoration of water supplies to Kumanovo from a rebel-held reservoir. Meanwhile, Kumanovo has been without normal water supplies for over one week. PM[19] MACEDONIAN GOVERNMENT CHANGES STRATEGYPresumably as a reaction to the ineffectiveness of the security forces against the ethnic Albanian rebels of the National Liberation Army (UCK), the president's counselor for security issues, Nikola Dimitrov, announced on 11 June that the government has adopted a change in strategy. The new concept puts police and military forces under a common command. Future antiguerrilla units will include elite troops of both the police and the army, the Skopje daily "Utrinski vesnik" reported (see "RFE/RL South Slavic Report," 7 and 14 June 2001). According to Dimitrov, the government will also create a Center for Crisis Management in order to better coordinate intelligence and security activities. UB[20] FORMATION OF A COMMON COMMAND BLOCKED BY MACEDONIAN PREMIER?Citing unnamed high-ranking government officials, the Skopje daily "Vest" stated on 12 June that Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski previously blocked attempts to set up a joint command (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 12 June 2001). Trajkovski, who is the commander in chief of the army, will also be in charge of the joint security forces of the interior and the defense ministries. Georgievski will thus lose control over the police forces. UB[21] MACEDONIAN ARMY COMMANDER QUITSGeneral Jovan Andrevski resigned as chief of the army's General Staff on 12 June, "The Times" reported. He cited the "bad morale of his troops" and his sense of responsibility for the deaths of 26 soldiers in the fighting against the UCK. His successor is his deputy, General Jovan Petkavski. PM[22] HAGUE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL MONITORING MACEDONIAN EVENTSFlorence Hartmann, the spokeswoman for chief prosecutor Carla Del Ponte, told AP in The Hague on 13 June that Macedonia "is part of the territory of ex-Yugoslavia and it is [the scene of] an armed conflict. The fact that we have jurisdiction [there] is a warning to all parties... All individuals responsible for crimes under our competency will have to respond before the international tribunal." She added that members of the tribunal staff are "in the field collecting information" and that any reports of offenses will be investigated. PM[23] RUN ON MACEDONIAN BANKS FOR MARKSRecent developments in the Macedonian crisis led to a rising demand for German marks over the past weekend (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 June 2001). The exchange rate on 11 June reached a high of almost 35 denars to the mark in exchange offices after some banks temporarily halted the selling of German currency, while others restricted the amount of German marks that each customer could buy, the Skopje daily "Utrinski vesnik" reported. The German mark has functioned as the unofficial second currency throughout the former Yugoslavia for decades. UB[24] SERBIAN ARMY COMMANDER SLAMS POLICEGeneral Nebojsa Pavkovic, who heads the army's General Staff, said in Belgrade on 12 June that unnamed officials of the Interior Ministry are collecting "compromising" materials about "high-ranking officers, whether in an official capacity or for unofficial, politically motivated reasons," AP reported. He added that the army knows "what's up their sleeves, but that will remain secret for now." The army and police competed for power and funding during the rule of former President Slobodan Milosevic. They are widely believed to be loyal to rival factions within the governing Democratic Opposition of Serbia coalition. PM[25] POLICE COOPERATION BETWEEN FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLICSThe interior ministers of Yugoslavia, Croatia, and Bosnia met in Belgrade on 12 June to discuss cooperation in combating organized crime, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[26] EU STABILITY PACT MEETING OPENS IN CROATIAN CAPITALThe EU's Stability Pact, which acts as a clearing house for projects in a number of reconstruction and development fields, opened a meeting in Zagreb on 13 June, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Coordinator Bodo Hombach reminded participants that the pact does not itself undertake direct measures aimed at promoting military security, although he stressed that he is concerned with developments in Macedonia. Hombach noted that there are 35 new projects underway dealing with security-related issues. He told the daily "Slobodna Dalmacija" that Croatia is the EU's "most important partner" in the former Yugoslav area (presumably excluding Slovenia) because it has taken seriously advice from the EU and shared its experiences and knowledge with its former Yugoslav neighbors. PM[27] SERBIAN PRIME MINISTER SEEKS BETTER TIES TO BOSNIAPrime Minister Zoran Djindjic agreed with top officials of Bosnia- Herzegovina and the federation to set up working groups to deal with practical economic issues, "Danas" reported. These include free trade, visa regulations, taxation, customs, and the easing of formalities for business travelers. PM[28] EU QUESTIONS ROMANIA'S ABILITY TO MEET MEMBERSHIP CONDITIONS...Guenter Verheugen, the EU commissioner for enlargement, on 12 June said after meeting Romania's chief negotiator with the EU, Vasile Puscas, that "Romania has yet to meet the basic conditions for membership," an RFE/RL correspondent in Luxembourg reported. Verheugen said the "state of negotiations with Romania clearly mirrors the state of affairs in the country itself -- a lot of problems, a lot of weaknesses, but also some progress and a lot of hope." Verheugen said the country has yet to become a market economy and that its privatization process "is still in the beginning." The administrative system needs to be "totally reformed" to enable the country to battle corruption, he said. MS[29] ...BUT NICHOLSON REPORT ON ROMANIA MIGHT UNDERGO REVISIONUpon returning from Luxembourg on 12 June, Foreign Minister Mircea Geoana said Baroness Emma Nicholson was among the EU officials he met there and that she will soon return to Romania for a visit, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Geoana said the baroness told him that her preliminary report submitted to a European Parliament commission will be updated to reflect the progress made by Romania in coping with the problem of abandoned children. Verheugen, cited by Radio Bucharest on 13 June, said he was "surprised" to have read in Nicholson's preliminary report her recommendation to suspend accession negotiations with Romania, which, he said, leads to "discouragement." MS[30] ROMANIA HAS 'NO OBJECTIONS' TO U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE PLANSDefense Minister Ioan Mircea Pascu, currently visiting the U.S. for talks with officials there, on 12 June said Romania has "no objections" to U.S. plans to develop a missile defense system, an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington reported. Pascu said the danger coming from "rogue states" and "terrorists" is real and that the U.S. is justified in wishing to preempt that danger. MS[31] ROMANIAN JUSTICE MINISTER HAS 'NO INTENTION' TO GRANT CONTROVERSIAL AMNESTYMeeting members of the association representing victims of the 1990-1991 miners' rampages in Bucharest, Justice Minister Rodica Stanoiu gave assurances that her ministry is not contemplating granting an amnesty to those involved in "social protest movements" since 1989, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The association's representatives requested from Stanoiu that criminal charges be brought against police and Prosecutor-General's Office officials who in 1990 ordered police forces to use violence and arrest protesters on Bucharest's University Square. Stanoiu refused to comment, saying only that she will "examine" the problem. MS[32] VETERAN ROMANIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRAT APPEALS AGAINST PARTY MERGERIn an appeal to members of the Social Democratic Party of Romania (PSDR), the party's honorary chairman, Sergiu Cunescu, said the merger of the PSDR with the Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) at the end of this week "makes an old communist dream come true," Mediafax reported. Cunescu said he will not stay on as honorary chairman of the new party and will not join it. He said the merger is the outcome of a "shameful deal" under which the PDSR, which Cunescu called the "successor Communist Party," offered positions in the parliament and government to the PSDR. Those who "betray the PSDR's social democratic ideas," Cunescu said, "will be viewed as traitors always are." MS[33] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT IS FED UP WITH SMIRNOVVladimir Voronin told journalists on 12 June that Moldova will stop negotiating with Tiraspol if the separatists reject Chisinau's proposals on the special status of the Transdniester. Moldova has made "not concessions, but compromises" in the negotiations, he said, but "everything has a limit that cannot be overstepped," RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. He accused separatist leader Igor Smirnov of "incorrect behavior" after their 16 May meeting, in which they agreed to mutually recognize documents issued by the other side. Only three days later Smirnov issued a decree on instituting passports of the breakaway region. "We did not agree on this, so I am free not to recognize those documents. I cannot imagine a country having two passports," Voronin said. He also said he will unilaterally dismantle the Moldovan checkpoints in the demilitarized zone, since Tiraspol is refusing to do this. MS[34] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT OPENLY BACKS RULING ALLIANCE IN ELECTORAL CONTEST...Petar Stoyanov on 12 June openly backed the ruling United Democratic Forces (SDS) alliance in the parliamentary elections scheduled for 17 June, BTA and Reuters reported. He said that "the line followed by the SDS in the past four years was the right line. What is more -- it was [also] my line." In an allusion to the National Movement Simeon II, which is leading in the polls, Simeon said that "what has been achieved up to now [by Bulgaria's government] should not be easily erased and questioned for the sake of pre- election promises and pre-election expectations." In response to a journalist's question, Stoyanov said the former king is "no doubt...the leader of a new political party seeking its worthy place in the Bulgarian parliament." He called on Simeon to "unambiguously say if the restoration of the monarchy is on his agenda." MS[35] ...DOES NOT EXPECT WAVE OF MACEDONIAN REFUGEESAsked to comment on developments in neighboring Macedonia, Stoyanov told journalists that he is "concerned" and follows developments "on an hourly basis," but that "at this stage" he does not expect a wave of refugees from that country. "Should this happen, however, Bulgaria will not be unprepared, " he added, according to a BTA report. MS[36] SIMEON READY FOR COALITION WITH SDSBulgaria's former king told AFP in Varna on 12 June that even if his National Movement wins an absolute majority, he would prefer to form a coalition, naming "the governing party or the Movement for Rights and Freedoms" as prospective partners. But in an allusion to attacks on his movement by the SDS, Simeon added that the task of post-electoral coalition- forming "is not made easier by exaggerated insults, and hurtful or completely false statements." Simeon also sought to brush aside accusations that his movement is populist, saying that after the elections "one should not have any illusions" and should be "realistic" in coping with problems like poverty and corruption. "We have promised to try to act legally, in a European way... We plan to introduce normal measures, which by themselves could trigger a weakening of corruption," he said. MS[37] SWEDISH FOREIGN MINISTER CONGRATULATES BULGARIA ON EU PROGRESS"Congratulations to Bulgaria and thank-you for your efforts," Swedish Foreign Minister Anna Lindh said in Luxembourg on 11 June, following the latest accession talks round with the Bulgarian delegations, BTA reported, citing Bulgarian television. Lindh said that during the last six months, negotiations were opened with Sofia on six new chapters of the aquis communautaire, and the country has made significant progress in justice and home affairs, which has led to the lifting of visa requirements for Bulgarians traveling in the EU. MS[C] END NOTE[38] MACEDONIA: TIME FOR CONTINGENCY PLANNING?The following is Part II of a two-part series; Part I appeared on 12 June.By Patrick Moore ...Macedonia thus seems to be a country where ethnic tensions are ready to boil over, but where the politicians have their eyes only on the next elections. In a growing realization that this is indeed the case, some Western commentators have recently called for the international community to think about and discuss what it is prepared to do to help prevent a civil war in this strategically important Balkan country. The key lesson that was learned in the previous conflicts in the former Yugoslavia is that the international community can be effective only if it speaks with one voice and only if it is prepared to assemble and use a credible amount of force to back up its views. If civil war breaks out in Macedonia or comes much closer to doing so, it thus will not be sufficient for the international community to send individual envoys into the region without a clear plan and without the potential means to bring recalcitrants or troublemakers into line. Some observers have suggested that the "international community" in the Macedonian case should be the EU for two reasons. First, the EU has become more determined since the Kosova conflict -- in which the Americans dominated the scene -- to show that it can manage crises in its own backyard. Macedonia could give Brussels an opportunity to prove that it can do so. Second, many argue that it is unlikely that the Bush administration would be willing to undertake a new Balkan mission, and that the EU would be best advised not to count on Washington should Brussels contemplate some form of more active involvement in Macedonia. What the Bush administration is or is not willing to do remains to be seen. But what is clear is that, while the EU may be welcome in the Balkans as a source of money, it has yet to establish itself everywhere in the region as a completely credible military or, for some, even political partner. In concrete terms, no international endeavor is likely to win the confidence and cooperation of ethnic Albanians anywhere in the Balkans unless the Americans are involved. That seems to be a fact of life, at least at present. What would be the political program on offer? Most observers agree that it would be basically what OSCE envoy Robert Frowick suggested in his recent dealings with the Albanian parties and the UCK, which is similar to the proposals put forward by the EU's Javier Solana. In essence, this would mean constitutional changes making the Albanians and their language coequal to the Macedonians and their language. A greater role for Albanians would have to be ensured in public service and the economy. There would have to be an amnesty for at least most of the fighters, as was the case in Presevo. In return, the UCK would disarm and end the conflict, returning to civilian life. As in Presevo, the guerrillas would have to be part of the peace process, even if only indirectly. There will be two big practical difficulties for the international community in bringing such a settlement about, according to many familiar with the crisis. The first is how to bring military muscle into play, at least as a deterrent against any brash steps by extremists on either side. Perhaps the international community -- which probably means NATO -- could start out with a basic peacekeeping force -- a revived UNPREDEP -- and expand it as the situation warranted. It is not clear whether it would be beneficial to introduce unarmed monitors into a situation where the potential for conflict remains high, despite some suggestions in the press for the OSCE to do so. A second question regards the nature of the mission. Unless a clear political road map and timetable are set down for the reintegration of a single state, the danger is that a peacekeeping mission to Macedonia could come to resemble that in Cyprus. There is also the danger that Macedonia could come to look like Bosnia, with two essentially independent entities -- each with its own military -- linked by only a few fragile institutions. 13-06-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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