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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 9, 01-01-15Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 9, 15 January 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN TV STATIONS SUSPEND BROADCASTING TO PROTEST NEW MEDIA LAWSome 20 Armenian TV and radio stations, including state-run Armenian National Television, suspended broadcasting for 45 minutes at 8 pm local time on 12 January to protest a new media law which they say could lead to an information blackout, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The law, enacted by the parliament in October 2000, provides for the creation of a national commission charged with monitoring electronic media outlets' compliance with the law and issuing and withdrawing licenses. It also requires them to produce at least 65 percent of their own programming, and to publicize their advertising fees. Many of the 15 independent TV stations broadcasting in the Yerevan area air primarily dubbed foreign soap operas, pornographic and horror movies. Andranik Tevanian, who is executive director of the independent AR TV station, told RFE/RL that broadcasters fear the new commission will restrict the activities of TV companies and enable the authorities to exert pressure on channels considered undesirable. Also on 12 January, the Constitutional Court ruled that several provisions of the law are unconstitutional, AP reported. LF[02] ARMENIA WANTS RAIL TRANSIT FEES THROUGH GEORGIA REDUCEDNewly-appointed Transport and Communications Minister Yervand Zakharian told RFE/RL on 13 January that Armenia will demand that Georgia reduce by 50 percent the current transit fees for rail freight shipped through Georgia, RFE/RL's bureau in the Armenian capital reported. Zakharian said Yerevan is entitled to that discount under a 1996 agreement signed by six Caucasus and Central Asian states within the framework of the EU's TRACECA project. He said he does not know why Georgia does not apply the favorable reduced rate to Armenia. The president of Armenia's largest transportation company told Noyan Tapan late last month that Georgia has reduced the preferential rates for Armenia at six monthly intervals over the past three years, most recently reducing the rebate from 25 percent to 17 percent. On most occasions, he said, the reduction was rescinded after talks between the two countries' governments. LF[03] GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY DENIES RUSSIAN-AZERBAIJANI RAPPROCHEMENT A THREATGeorgian Foreign Ministry spokesman Avtandil Napetvaridze told journalists in Tbilisi on 12 January that the ministry does not share the view of some Georgian political figures that the improvement in Azerbaijani-Russian relations reflected by Russian President Vladimir Putin's 9-10 January visit to Baku may adversely affect Georgian-Azerbaijani relations, Caucasus Press reported. Giorgi Baramidze, who heads the majority Union of Citizens of Georgia parliament faction, had expressed that fear two days earlier (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 January 2001). Napetvaridze added that Azerbaijani diplomats will brief their Georgian counterparts in the near future on the results of Putin's visit. LF[04] FORMER CHECHEN OFFICIAL ARRESTED, RELEASED IN GEORGIAPolice arrested former Chechen Foreign Minister Akhiyat Idigov at the Tbilisi airport on 13 January on the grounds that his name figures on a list of persons wanted by Interpol for suspected terrorism, Russian agencies reported. Idigov was released the same day after Russian officials said he is no longer wanted for questioning in Russia. LF[05] EC WARNS GEORGIA OVER AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIESAgriculture Minister David Kirvalidze told Caucasus Press on 12 January that the European Commission may suspend financial support for the agricultural sector in Georgia if Tbilisi continues to use those funds for other purposes, such as paying pensions and other social allowances. The state budget for 2001 envisages allocating 15.8 million laris ($8 million) for agriculture, of which the EC is to provide 13 million laris. LF[06] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRO-PRESIDENTIAL PARTY SLAMS OPPOSITION ADDRESS TO U.S. CONGRESSRepresentatives of the OTAN party formed two years ago to support President Nursultan Nazarbaev told a press conference on 11 January that the appeal by the Forum of Democratic Forces to the U.S. Congress concerning corruption charges against Nazarbaev's U.S. adviser, James Giffen (see "RFE/RL Kazakh Report," 5 January 2001), is merely the latest move by former Premier Akezhan Kazhegeldin in his ongoing polemic with the Kazakh leadership, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. Ermurat Bapi, editor in chief of the independent newspaper "Sol-Dat," dismissed the OTAN activists' criticism as an attempt to protect Nazarbaev's reputation. LF[07] KAZAKH DEFENSE OFFICIALS DETAIL SPENDING, ARMS EXPORTSMajor General Malik Saparov, who is first deputy chief of the Kazakh Army General Staff, told journalists in Astana on 12 January that as a result of measures taken over the last year, the country's armed forces are prepared to repel attacks by any "bandit groups," regardless of their nationality and strength, Interfax reported. He noted the successful establishment of the Western Military District and said the creation of the Southern Military District is a priority for 2001. Deputy Defense Minister Gosman Amrin told journalists that last year the armed forces received 17 billion tenges ($101.7 million) from the budget instead of the planned 12 billion, and that funding in 2001 is to be no less than 25 billion tenges, or 1 percent of planned GDP. He said Kazakhstan will receive arms from Russia worth some $20 million in 2001 in part payment of Russia's annual lease for the Baikonur cosmodrome, according to ITAR-TASS. The head of Kazakhstan's Kazspetseksport government trading company said that the country exported arms worth 900 million tenges in 2000 and plans to increase that figure to 3 billion this year. LF[08] WOMEN APPEAL TO KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT OVER EMBEZZLED FAMILY ALLOWANCESA group of women from South Kazakhstan Oblast have traveled to Astana to beg an audience with President Nazarbaev, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported on 12 January. The women are demanding payment of family allowances for the past five years. Several officials were arrested and imprisoned last year on charges of embezzling those funds, but the money has not been recovered. LF[09] KYRGYZSTAN'S SUPREME COURT DENIES RECEIVING IMPRISONED OPPOSITION POLITICIAN'S APPEALThe Supreme Court on 13 January denied receiving an appeal by Guild of Prisoners of Conscience founder Topchubek Turgunaliev against the sentence handed down on him in September, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 September 2000). Turgunaliev, who was found guilty of masterminding a plot to assassinate President Askar Akaev, had submitted that appeal on 27 November, and must now resubmit it. He claims the charges against him were fabricated. LF[10] KYRGYZ ENERGY SECTOR SUB-DIVIDEDKyrgyzstan's huge Kyrgyzenergo company was divided into five separate smaller companies on 12 January as a prelude to its privatization, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Prime Minister Kurmanbek Bakiev had announced the planned privatization on 9 January, noting that it would be conducted over a lengthy time period (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 January 2001). Bakiev added that hydroelectric power stations, which are to be regrouped into a single company, and power lines will be exempt from privatization. LF[11] KYRGYZSTAN'S KOREAN COMMUNITY HOLDS CONGRESSSome 200 Koreans representing the estimated 20,000 strong Korean minority in Kyrgyzstan held a congress in Bishkek on 12 January, RFE/RL's bureau in the Kyrgyz capital reported. They re-elected Roman Shin as chairman of the Chinson organization that represents their interests. LF[12] IODINE DEFICIENCY SOARS IN KYRGYZSTANPrime Minister Bakiev on 13 January charged the Ministry of Health with drafting by 1 April a package of emergency measures to counter diseases caused by iodine deficiency, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Of a population of some 4.9 million, 75,500 were found to be suffering from such diseases in 1999, compared with only 18,000 in 1997. LF[13] TAJIKISTAN CREATES NEW ECONOMY AND TRADE MINISTRYTajik President Imomali Rakhmonov on 11 January abolished the Ministry of Economy and Foreign Relations and the State Committee on Trade and Contracts and replaced them with a streamlined Ministry of Economy and Trade, Asia Plus-Blitz reported the following day. Hakim Soliev, who had headed the State Committee on Trade and Contracts, was named to head the new combined ministry. LF[14] IS TURKMENISTAN'S STATE LIBRARY IN DANGER?President Saparmurat Niyazov is planning to liquidate Turkmenistan's state library, which has holdings of over 3 million volumes dating back to the 19th century, RFE/RL's Turkmen Service reported on 12 January, quoting opposition Turkmenistan Foundation Director and former Foreign Minister Avdy Kuliev. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[15] YUGOSLAVIA'S KOSTUNICA MEETS WITH MILOSEVICPresident Vojislav Kostunica met in Belgrade on 13 January for one hour with his predecessor, Slobodan Milosevic, whose Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) requested the meeting the previous day, "Vesti" reported on 15 January. The state-run Tanjug news agency said in a statement that the two men discussed the general situation in the country, the situation in Kosova, and the future of Serbian-Montenegrin relations. An unnamed individual "in Kostunica's office" told AP on 14 January that Kostunica wanted to show that he had broken with Milosevic's policy of not meeting with opposition leaders. Kostunica said that "the president is obliged to talk to party leaders, in this case with the leader of the largest opposition party." SPS spokesman Branislav Ivkovic hailed the meeting, saying that it was "quite normal" for two presidents to discuss affairs of state. Milosevic's own predecessor, Ivan Stambolic, disappeared under mysterious circumstances in August (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 December 2000). He has not been heard from since. PM[16] WHAT DID THE YUGOSLAV LEADERS TALK ABOUT?Speculation is rife as to what the two men actually discussed, "Vesti" and "Die Presse" reported on 15 January. One theory is that indicted war criminal Milosevic wanted assurances from Kostunica that he will not be turned over to the Hague-based war crimes tribunal. Another theory is that Kostunica tried to persuade Milosevic to go to The Hague voluntarily, as former Bosnian Serb leader Biljana Plavsic did the previous week. Kostunica himself told "Glas Javnosti" of 13 January that he considers the tribunal to be a "political rather than legal body." He added that reopening the court's Belgrade office "does not automatically mean accepting all demands of the court." Kostunica noted that Yugoslav law does not allow for extradition of citizens to foreign courts. He acknowledged that the Dayton agreement committed Belgrade to cooperate with the tribunal, but added that the Yugoslav parliament never ratified the document. Kostunica stressed that "we will cooperate to the extent that our laws allow and that [it] does not insult [our] national dignity." PM[17] SERBIAN COALITION ALLIES REBUFF KOSTUNICASerbian Prime Minister-designate Zoran Djindjic said in Belgrade that he learned of the Milosevic-Kostunica meeting from a radio broadcast and wants an explanation. He added that the government should do exactly the opposite of whatever Milosevic advised. Djindjic stressed that he sees no purpose in getting advice on the future of the federation from the man most responsible for alienating Montenegro to begin with, "Vesti" reported on 15 January. Zarko Korac of the Social Democratic Union told RFE/RL's South Slavic Service on 13 January that "Milosevic belongs in jail." Korac added that the former dictator should not be treated like a legitimate politician "with whom one is obliged to consult." Korac argued that the fact that Kostunica is willing to talk to Milosevic about Montenegro is in itself a warning to the citizens of Montenegro. The small Sumadija League said in a statement that "it is unbelievable that anybody, especially the president of Yugoslavia, consults...with the man who brought us all to the brink of bare survival and disgraced us before the whole world." PM[18] HAGUE, OWN MINISTER WARN YUGOSLAV PRESIDENTFlorence Hartmann, who is a spokeswoman for the Hague-based war crimes tribunal, told AP on 14 January that Kostunica "knows that Milosevic is a fugitive and [Kostunica] is aware of the obligation to arrest him." In Belgrade, Justice Minister Momcilo Grubac said that "the Hague tribunal is a UN body, which means that the constitutional ban on extradition does not apply," AP reported on 13 January (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 January 2001). PM[19] SERBIAN POLICE TO BE DOWNSIZEDDusan Mihajlovic, who is tipped to head the police in the new Serbian government, told "Glas Javnosti" of 14 January that he has no idea as to the exact size of the force, estimated at between 60,000 and 100,000. He said he expects to cut it by two-thirds. He stressed that he intends to transform it from an instrument of state terror into a force that protects citizens and their property. Milosevic, who was never fully confident of the army's support, used the well-armed police as his own Praetorian guard. PM[20] SERBIAN COALITION BACKS KOSTUNICA ON MONTENEGROThe governing Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) coalition issued a statement on 14 January endorsing Kostunica's recent proposal on relations with Montenegro, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 January 2001). PM[21] MONTENEGRIN OPPOSITION TO KOSTUNICA PROPOSAL STIFFENSMiodrag Vukovic, who is an aide to President Milo Djukanovic, said in Podgorica on 14 January that Kostunica's proposal is in many ways worse for Montenegro than was Milosevic's constitution of 1992. Vukovic stressed that Kostunica is wrong when he says that Montenegro previously sought union with Serbia, arguing that Montenegro wanted only "equal state relations" with its larger partner, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Djukanovic is slated to meet with Kostunica and Djindjic in Belgrade on 17 January. Montenegro's two largest parties have still not reached an agreement on holding early parliamentary elections and a referendum on independence. PM[22] KFOR ARRESTS GUERRILLAS ON SERBIAN BORDERKFOR troops arrested 11 uniformed and armed members of the Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac as they attempted to cross from Serbia into Kosova, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 13 January. The men were taken to a U.S. military installation at Gjilan for questioning. PM[23] ALBANIA STRESSES KOSOVA ROLE IN BELGRADE TIESForeign Minister Paskal Milo said in Tirana on 13 January that Kosova will be Albania's main concern in pursuing new relations with Serbia. He added that Tirana supports any proposal for resolving the political status of the province that takes into consideration the wishes of the majority of the population there, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The ethnic Albanian majority is interested only in independence (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 22 December 2000). PM[24] NEW KOSOVA ADMINISTRATOR DOUBTFUL ON ELECTIONSFormer Danish Defense Minister Hans Haekkerup, who recently succeeded Bernard Kouchner as chief civilian administrator in Kosova, said in Prishtina on 15 January that his first priority is to "create a legal framework" for general elections. He stressed that he will set a date for the vote only once that framework is in place, AP reported. His views are a departure from those of Kouchner, who stressed the need to keep up political momentum after the recent local elections by going ahead soon with general elections. Haekkerup added that international plans to return several hundred Serbian refugees by the summer might be too hasty. "My job is to create a secure environment so the returns are possible, and that might take some time yet," he said. PM[25] BOSNIAN SERBS GET NEW GOVERNMENTThe parliament in Banja Luka approved the new cabinet of Prime Minister Mladen Ivanic on 12 January. It includes one Muslim and one member of the nationalist Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), which won November's parliamentary vote (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 November 2000). Representatives of the international community have threatened to cut off aid to the Republika Srpska if the SDS is included in the cabinet, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Outgoing Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said that the SDS is responsible for the war in Bosnia and that its leaders belong in The Hague. PM[26] BOSNIAN NON-NATIONALIST PARTIES SIGN PACTRepresentatives of the 10 political parties in the Alliance for Change signed an agreement in Sarajevo on 13 January, calling for a government that excludes the three main nationalist parties, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 January 2001). The previous day, representatives of the Croatian Democratic Community and Muslim Party of Democratic Action criticized the decision by High Representative Wolfgang Petritsch to grant all citizens equal legal status throughout Bosnia regardless of ethnicity. PM[27] SERBIAN GUNNER KILLS SELF IN CROATIASuspected gunman Zivko Korac, who has hid out in the woods of Zrinska Gora since the arrival of Croatian troops in 1995, killed himself on 14 January after being surrounded by Croatian police (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 December 2000). PM[28] UN EXTENDS MANDATE ON CROATIA'S PREVLAKAThe Security Council voted on 12 January to extend its military observer mission on Croatia's Prevlaka peninsula until 15 July, Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 October 2000). PM[29] CONTROVERSIAL ROMANIAN SENATOR TO HEAD INTELLIGENCE SERVICEThe National Supreme Defense Council on 12 January nominated Senator Radu Timofte to be the next director of the Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI), RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The nomination is yet to be approved by the parliament. Timofte was chairman of the senatorial National Defense, Public Order and Security Commission between 1990 and 1996, and a vice chairman of that commission, which oversees the SRI activity, between 1996 and 2000. He is reputed to be close to President Ion Iliescu. In a recently- published book, political scientist George Voicu describes Timofte as being haunted by imaginary conspiracy theories involving alleged threats against Romania by neighbors, national minorities, and international financial circles. Meanwhile, on 10 January, the government decided to place the national news agency Rompres under the supervision of the Ministry of Public Information, ending the agency's independence, AP reported on 12 January. MS[30] IS ROMANIAN PATRIARCH A FORMER IRON GUARD MEMBER?The daily "Monitorul" on 13 January reproduced a document discovered by historian Dorin Dobrincu, according to which Patriarch Teoctist was a member of the fascist Iron Guard and participated in that organization's rebellion against Marshal Ion Antonescu in January 1941. The document is in the Securitate file on Patriarch Teoctist and says the head of the Romanian Orthodox Church took part in the burning of a synagogue in Iasi. A spokesman for the Patriarchate described the document as "pure invention" but the daily says Teoctist's membership in the Iron Guard might have been used by the communist regime to blackmail him into collaboration. Teoctist resigned and retired to a monastery in 1990 to atone for that collaboration, but a few months later was recalled as the head of the Church by its synod. MS[31] PRIVATE HUNGARIAN UNIVERSITY TO BE FORCED TO HAVE ROMANIAN TUITION?The private Hungarian-language university about to be set up in Romania must introduce at least one faculty with Romanian-language tuition in order to be approved by the National Council for Academic Evaluation and Accreditation, Mediafax reported on 12 January, citing council chairman Ioan Mihailescu. The university is financed by the Hungarian government and private donations and is to be located in the Transylvanian town of Miercurea Ciuc. The Hungarian minority has not renounced demands that a state-funded Hungarian-language university be set up, but the government headed by Adrian Nastase has ruled out that possibility. No progress has been made in setting up the "Petofi-Schiller Multicultural University" approved in September 1998 by the Radu Vasile cabinet, and that project appears to have been stalled. MS[32] ROMANIA'S DEMOCRATIC PARTY DISPLAYS LIMITED DEMOCRACYDemocratic Party Vice-Chairman and Bucharest Mayor Traian Basescu on 12 January said he "would not rule out" the possibility that if the party holds an extraordinary National Conference later this year, he will run against Petre Roman for the formation's chairmanship, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Roman said in reaction that he "does not believe this is a real possibility," but Basescu's declaration "demonstrates that there is democracy" in the party. Shortly after, Basescu said he would not run against Roman if that led to a party split and Roman on 14 January said the scenario was "mere speculation by the media and by people interested in disseminating such rumors." MS[33] LUCINSCHI CALLS ON PARTIES TO CONDUCT 'CIVILIZED CAMPAIGN'Moldovan President Petru Lucinschi on 12 January called on political parties participating in the early elections campaign to transform the occasion into a "duel of ideas and proposals about how the country would get out of its present deadlock," rather than display "primitive behavior, use of dirty tricks against opponents, and of bad language...that harm the image of parties and of the country as a whole." The electoral campaign was officially launched on 12 January and the elections will take place on 25 February, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. MS[34] MOLDOVAN PREMIER HEADS CENTRIST ALLIANCE...Prime Minister Dumitru Braghis will run in the elections at the head of a pro-Lucinschi block calling itself "The Braghis Alliance," RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported on 12 January. Braghis said his alliance is likely to win the highest or the second-highest number of mandates, in which case he will stay on as premier. He also said the Braghis Alliance is likely to support Lucinschi for a new presidential mandate. He said the presidential system is more suitable to Moldova than the parliamentary one but as long as the latter system is in force "we must abide by its rules." Commenting on statements made by politicians in Bucharest who speak of "two Romanian states," Braghis said "thus far, the Moldovan republic is not a Romanian state." MS[35] ...AND CONTROVERSIAL GENERAL RUNS ON CENTRIST PARTY TICKETControversial General Nicolae Alexei is a candidate on the lists of the Popular Party Christian Democratic (PPCD), PPCD leader Iurie Rosca told journalists on 12 January. Alexei was dismissed as head of the Interior Ministry's Department for the Struggle Against Organized Crime in 1999 after accusing parliament chairman Dumitru Diacov and other politicians of corruption. He was re-instated to that post and promoted to first deputy interior minister by Braghis, but was suspended from office following several complaints launched by Diacov. MS[36] BULGARIAN SOCIALISTS SIGN AGREEMENT WITH NATIONALIST ORGANIZATIONSocialist party leader Georgi Parvanov and Dobromir Zadgorski, leader of the Committee for the Defense of National Interests (KZNI) "civic" organization, on 12 January signed a cooperation agreement for the upcoming parliamentary and presidential campaigns, and on cooperation in the next four years, Bulgarian Radio, cited by BBC monitoring, reported. The KZNI, which publishes the ultranationalist magazine "Zora," has taken chauvinist positions towards the Turkish minority and has defended the campaigns against this minority by the communist regime of Todor Zhivkov. Also on 12 January, Turkey announced it will send tens of thousands of Turkish- language schoolbooks for the use of the ethnic Turkish minority in Bulgaria, Reuters reported. The donation was organized by Abdulhaluk Cay, a state minister and a member of the far-right Turkish nationalist wing in the coalition government. MS[C] END NOTE[37] Ten Years Ago In Lithuania -- The Shots Heard Round The WorldBy Paul GobleThe date 13 January marks the 10th anniversary of an event that changed the world. On that day in 1991, Soviet troops fired into a crowd surrounding the Vilnius television tower. But they did more than kill 14 Lithuanian demonstrators: They destroyed three assumptions that underlay what many in both Moscow and the West saw as the emerging post-Cold War world. First, this shooting and the reaction of Lithuanians to it suggested something that many had thought impossible: that Lithuania and her two Baltic neighbors Estonia and Latvia were in fact going to be able to escape from Soviet occupation and recover their national independence within a short period of time. Second, the Vilnius shooting pointed to something many had assumed could not happen: that the East European revolutions of 1989, revolutions that ended Soviet domination of that region, could and would spread via a Baltic bridge into the Soviet inner empire, leading to its disintegration and to the appearance of 12 new countries on the map of the world. And third, it demonstrated something many world leaders were unwilling to acknowledge: that Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev was not prepared either to negotiate in good faith with the ever-growing number of popular movements his policies had allowed to emerge or to reimpose order through the massive application of force. None of these developments or conclusions was immediately apparent either in Moscow or in Western capitals, both of which were focused on the imminent start of Operation Desert Storm against Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. But those developments meant that the unthinkable became the conventional wisdom and the impossible was transformed into the achieved. A week before the shootings, on 6 January 1991, Gorbachev had dispatched Soviet security forces into Armenia, Moldavia, western Ukraine and the three Baltic republics nominally to enforce Soviet military draft laws but in fact as a show of force against the pro-independence and anti-Moscow political movements in all six places. Throughout the following week, tensions between these Soviet troops and the populations they had been sent to control continued to rise, nowhere more sharply than in Lithuania. Then on Saturday night, 13 January, the Soviet soldiers fired into the crowd in the Lithuanian capital. And that country's leader, Vytautas Landsbergis, was convinced that Gorbachev planned to kill or imprison his entire government. Soviet documents released later showed that such were in fact Moscow's intentions, but the kind of crackdown Landsbergis feared did not happen. On the one hand, one group of Soviet troops lost their way -- it hadn't been supplied with the necessary maps -- and never made it to the parliament building where the Lithuanian government was rapidly assembling a crowd. Moreover, the presence of Western journalists and diplomats in the parliament building guaranteed that any such action would be reported to the entire world. And on the other hand, the Lithuanians showed a resolve that Soviet commanders were apparently not prepared to challenge, and Western leaders reacted sufficiently forcefully to convince Gorbachev that despite all the understanding these governments had shown to him, they would find it very difficult to deal with Moscow were there to be a Soviet version of Tiananmen Square in the Baltic countries. After the Soviet troops fired on the crowd, it did not disperse as many might have expected. Instead, they began to sing an old Lithuanian hymn, and thousands of Lithuanians rushed to parliament square as a sign to Moscow that it would have to be prepared to kill far more than 14 of Lithuania's citizens if it wanted to block that country's national movement. And even though Western leaders were working closely with Gorbachev in the international alliance against Iraq's Saddam Hussein, most of them were appalled by what the Soviet leader had done or at least was associated with. As he traveled to the Middle East for the last round of pre-war talks, U.S. Secretary of State James Baker spoke for many when he issued from his airplane a tough statement condemning what Moscow had done in Vilnius. Moreover, the events in Vilnius suggested that despite 50 years of Soviet occupation, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania had remained part of Europe and were thus in a position to become the bridge over which the ideas of the 1989 revolutions in Eastern Europe spread into the Soviet Union. A few Soviet officials understood this -- including Gorbachev's reformist advisor Aleksandr Yakovlev -- and hoped to allow the Baltic republics to go their own way much as the East Europeans had. Gorbachev was unwilling to do that lest other Soviet republics follow the Baltic lead, but by trying to hold on to them after they had signaled that they wanted to leave, Gorbachev in fact created a situation in which the Baltic revolution spread to the entire Soviet Union. And perhaps most importantly of all, the killings in Vilnius that January night a decade ago and the killings of five Latvians by the Soviet Black Berets in Riga a week later destroyed much of the faith many Soviet citizens and many Western leaders had in Gorbachev, and ever more of both groups began to ask whether he could in fact succeed in his policy of trying to liberalize the Soviet state. For many in both places, Gorbachev as a result of Vilnius appeared too willing to rely on a show of force rather than engaging in negotiations with his political opponents but more unwilling that his predecessors to use the amount of force that might have been necessary to suppress them totally. Many who reached that conclusion decided that Gorbachev's days in power were now numbered. Those who wanted to move toward a political solution, like the massive crowds of Russians who protested against the Vilnius action in the streets of Moscow, increasingly turned to Russian leader Boris Yeltsin or to the leaders of the non-Russian republics. Those who wanted more force -- including senior officers in the security services -- became the leaders of what was to be the last act of the Soviet system, the failed coup of August 1991. The world of January 2001 was in many respects defined by that night in Vilnius a decade ago, in a confrontation between a frightened leadership and a people whose faith in the rightness of their cause meant that they were prepared to sacrifice themselves in the name of freedom. (The author at the time of these events was special adviser on Soviet nationality problems and Baltic affairs at the U.S. State Department in Washington.) 15-01-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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