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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 233, 00-12-04Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 233, 4 December 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS MEETRobert Kocharian and Heidar Aliev met in Minsk late on 30 November on the sidelines of the CIS summit to discuss the Karabakh conflict, Armenpress and Turan reported. It was their fifth such meeting this year. Aliev termed the talks "constructive," while Kocharian said that agreement was reached "to shift the negotiating process to another format," which, he added, would provide for "more active contacts." He did not elaborate. Kocharian stressed the need to reach a permanent settlement of the conflict before 2003, when presidential elections are due in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. LF[02] OPPOSITION DEPUTIES WALK OUT OF KARABAKH PARLIAMENTThe nine deputies representing the opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation--Dashnaktsutiun on 1 December walked out of the 33-seat parliament of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to protest the passage of legislative amendments increasing the powers of the enclave's president, an RFE/RL Armenian Service correspondent in Stepanakert reported. The opposition deputies accused the majority Democratic Artsakh Union faction of reneging on a pledge to reform the division of powers to increase the role of the legislature. The two parties later agreed to establish a joint commission to seek a solution to the disagreement. LF[03] AZERBAIJAN REJECTS IRANIAN WARNING OF MILITARIZATION OF CASPIANAzerbaijan's National Security Minister Namig Abbasov on 30 November rejected as untrue the claim by Iranian armed forces commander Major- General Mohammad Salimi that the U.S. and Israel are deploying military forces in the Caspian, Turan and Interfax reported. IRNA had quoted Salimi as saying on 26 November in Tehran that those forces could launch an attack on Iran. LF[04] AZERBAIJAN UNABLE TO FUND ITS SHARE OF BAKU-CEYHAN PIPELINE?Ilham Aliev, Vice-President of the Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR, told journalists in Baku on 30 November that Azerbaijan may be constrained to sell part of its 50 percent stake in project to build the Baku-Ceyhan oil export pipeline for Caspian oil, Interfax reported. He said SOCAR may retain a 30 percent stake in the project. Meanwhile the president of Georgia's International Oil Corporation, Giorgi Chanturia, said in Tbilisi on 1 December that British Petroleum, which has a 25.41 percent stake in the Baku-Ceyhan project, has presented to Georgia maps highlighting a10 kilometer wide corridor within which the pipeline will be routed, according to Interfax. LF[05] GEORGIA, RUSSIA TO HOLD NEW DEBT TALKSFollowing a tentative agreement reached on 30 November in Minsk during talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Georgian counterpart Eduard Shevardnadze, a Georgian government delegation headed by Minister of State Gia Arsenishvili flew to Moscow on 4 December to begin talks on the rescheduling of Georgia's debt to Russia and on Russian gas and electricity supplies to Georgia, Caucasus Press reported. Moscow accused Tbilisi two months ago of failing to begin repayment of credits due in February of this year (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 October 2000). Georgia owes Russia some $180 million for energy supplies, but has lodged a counter-claim for a share of the assets of the former USSR estimated at $2.5-3 billion. LF[06] SPANIARDS KIDNAPPED IN GEORGIA 'NOT IN DANGER'President Shevardnadze said on 4 December during his traditional weekly radio broadcast that the two Spanish businessmen abducted in Georgia on 30 November are unharmed and are being held captive in the largely Chechen- populated Pankisi gorge in northern Georgia, Caucasus Press reported. On 3 December, Georgian Interior Minister Kakha Targamadze and National Security Minister Vakhtang Kutateladze met in north Georgia's Akhmeta Raion with village elders who undertook to help secure the Spaniards' release, according to AP. LF[07] RUSSIA PROTESTS GEORGIAN DEMONSTRATIONThe Russian Foreign Ministry on 2 December lodged a protest with Georgia's ambassador, Zurab Abashidze, condemning a demonstration convened three days earlier outside the Russian embassy in Tbilisi to protest the planned introduction of a visa regime for travel between the two countries, ITAR- TASS reported. The Russian protest termed that demonstration, in which some 100 people participated, "an unfriendly act." LF[08] KAZAKHSTAN'S PARLIAMENT APPROVES DRAFT BUDGET IN FIRST READINGA combined session of the upper and lower houses of Kazakhstan's parliament approved on 1 December in the first reading the amended version of the draft budget for 2001 submitted by the cabinet the previous day, Interfax reported. That version did not incorporate demands made by the opposition during the first reading of the bill by the Mazhilis (lower house) to increase revenues (see RFE/RL Newsline," 9 and 13 November 2000). Instead, the new version provides for slightly lower revenues and expenditure, but increases the budget deficit from 2.2 to 2.7 percent of GDP. It also allocates 18.5 billion tenges ($120 million) for servicing the country's foreign debts. Deputy Economics Minister Aleksandr Andryushenko told deputies that GDP growth in 2001 is forecast at 4 percent, and industrial output is set to increase by 8 percent, compared with this year. Annual inflation is predicted at 5.5 percent compared with 8.5 percent in 2000. LF[09] CONFUSION OVER KYRGYZ 'AMNESTY' PERSISTSNone of the six men pardoned last week by Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev has yet been released from jail as the amnesty has not been officially promulgated, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 1 December. The six had been sentenced in September to up to 17 years ' imprisonment on charges of plotting to assassinate Akaev (See "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 September and 1 December 2000). Two of the men may reject the amnesty as they do not consider themselves guilty. They have already petitioned the Supreme Court to acquit them. LF[10] KYRGYZ COURT THROWS OUT LIBEL SUIT AGAINST OPPOSITION PAPERA Bishkek district court on 1 December rejected one of two libel suits brought by Deputy Security Minister Boris Poluektov against the newspaper "Delo Nomer," RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The court has not yet begin hearings in the second case. LF[11] UZBEKISTAN, RUSSIA PLEDGE TO IMPROVE BILATERAL RELATIONSMeeting in Minsk on 1 December on the sidelines of the CIS summit, Russian President Putin and his Uzbek counterpart Islam Karimov pledged to do all in their power to resolve the problems currently bedeviling bilateral relations and to prevent any further such problems arising, ITAR-TASS reported. Two days earlier, Uzbekistan's Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov said in Tashkent that the Uzbek leadership is ready to sign a new agreement with Russia on visa-free travel between the two countries "within days," according to Interfax. Putin and Karimov also held a three-way meeting in Minsk with Tajikistan's President Imomali Rakhmonov at the latter's suggestion, Asia Plus-Blitz reported on 4 December. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[12] YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT URGES RESTRAINT OVER PRESEVO...Vojislav Kostunica said in Belgrade on 3 December that Serbian leaders should use restraint in responding to ethnic tensions in the Presevo valley (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 2000). "I call on all politicians in Yugoslavia who truly care about the preservation of the nation and the state to refrain from making unrestrained statements and war cries," Reuters reported. Kostunica added that it is "dangerous and irresponsible to respond to one extremism with another... This is not time for warmongering but for wise diplomatic action... We count on the international community, not only on its support but [on] its readiness to meet obligations that it has undertaken" in conjunction with preventing ethnic Albanian extremists in Kosova from smuggling arms and fighters into Serbia. Referring to the ethnic Albanian civilians in the Presevo valley, Kostunica expressed sympathy for "our citizens who are also being pushed into war by their [own] extremists," AP reported. It is rare for Serbian leaders to refer to Albanians except as "terrorists and separatists." PM[13] ...AFTER DJINDJIC TALKS TOUGHKostunica's remarks appear to be a response to comments by Serbian opposition leader Zoran Djindjic while in the Presevo region on 3 December. Djindjic said that the area "is a top priority for us. Serbia has the right and the strength to defend its territory. We should react [to ethnic Albanian guerrilla activity] as soon as possible...[namely] one day after the elections" that will take place on 23 December, AP reported. Djindjic stressed that Serbia will "use all legitimate means against the terrorists and certainly not against civilians. We must present a plan to the international community of what we intend to do. If it does not respond, we'll take it as support [for our plan} to react" to the guerrillas' actions. Djindjic recently said that the situation in the Presevo valley could lead to a "real war." It is widely believed that he and Kostunica remain political rivals despite their outward professions of unity. PM[14] KOSOVARS SKEPTICAL OF SERBIAN OVERTURESSpeaking at a conference on Balkan affairs in Athens on 1 December, Serbian Interior Minister Zoran Zivkovic said that "there should be talks as soon as possible" between leading Serbian and Kosovar politicians. He added that "what happened to the ethnic Albanians in the last three or four years is horrendous. But that does not give them the right to blame a whole nation or change [Serbia's] borders." Moderate Kosovar leader Ibrahim Rugova nonetheless refused to appear with Zivkovic in public, AP reported. Leading Kosovar publisher Veton Surroi said of recent Serbian calls for talks: "There was a genocidal war in Kosova to expel or destroy the Albanian population. That war was lost [by the Serbs]. And even if Serbia elects Mother Theresa as its president, the Kosovars won't accept Serbia as their state." PM[15] BRITISH TROOPS TAKE UP POSTS ON KOSOVA-SERBIAN BORDERTwo companies of British troops have taken up positions in the U.S. sector of Kosova near the border village of Dobercan, Reuters reported on 3 December (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 2000). Using special surveillance equipment, the troops monitor possible signs of guerrilla activity in the area. Also on 3 December, unidentified persons fired four mortar shells at a Serbian police patrol in the demilitarized five- kilometer buffer zone. There were no casualties. A Serbian police official blamed "Albanian terrorists" for the breach in the cease-fire between Serbian forces and Albanian guerrillas. In related news, Yugoslav Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic said in Belgrade on 1 December that unspecified "European monitors" should be sent into the buffer zone on the Serbian border with Kosova to help "reduce tensions" in the area, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[16] UN PLEDGES PROTECTION FOR MODERATE KOSOVAR LEADERSUN civilian administration (UNMIK) spokeswoman Claire Trevena said in Prishtina on 1 December that UNMIK will provide increased protection for moderate Kosovar politicians after a recent series of attacks and threats against several of them, Reuters reported. In the latest of such incidents, an unknown telephone caller told Rugova's deputy Kole Berisha on 30 November that he will "be the next to die." The attacks and threats are widely seen as the work of ethnic Albanian extremists, who lost to Rugova's Democratic League of Kosova in the 28 October local elections. PM[17] 'HABEAS CORPUS' IN SERBIAN CAPITALOn 3 December, police in Belgrade found the body of Judge Nebojsa Simeunovic washed up on the banks of the Sava River near where it flows into the Danube, Reuters reported. A police spokesman said that forensic tests are under way, adding that "so far, we have no signs that indicate a violent death." The judge was last seen in a Belgrade restaurant on 6 November and was reported missing four days later. On 3 October, he refused a request by the authorities to issue arrest warrants for two opposition leaders and 11 leaders of a miners' strike. He was helping investigate several politically sensitive cases, including the 1997 killing of police and underworld figure Radovan Stojicic-Bazda and the slaying in February 2000 of Yugoslav Defense Minister Pavle Bulatovic. PM[18] CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER HAILS SERBIAN TIESYugoslav Deputy Prime Minister Miroljub Labus said in Belgrade on 3 December that visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan agreed not to "press" Belgrade to repay the "millions of dollars" it owes Beijing, Reuters reported. Labus added that China wants to "complete" an existing $200 million trade agreement, of which $77 million remains unused. Tang also met with Kostunica, whom he invited to visit China. Speaking at the ruins of the Chinese embassy building accidentally hit by a NATO bomb in 1999, Tang said: "If anyone wants to know what the policy of a big power is, then this is the best proof of that. This is the territory of the People's Republic of China. This was bombed and attacked by the big power from the West." Washington has explained to Beijing repeatedly that the bombing was an accident. It is widely believed that China is trying to extract as much political capital as possible out of the incident to put pressure on the U.S. over other, unrelated issues. PM[19] MONTENEGRO TO OPEN NEW DIPLOMATIC POSTSForeign Minister Branko Lukovac said in a statement on 1 December that his republic plans to open five new diplomatic missions abroad soon, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Montenegro wants to set up offices in Macedonia, Croatia, Germany, the U.K., and France. It plans to expand existing missions in the U.S., Bosnia, and to the EU in Brussels. In recent weeks, President Milo Djukanovic has stressed that Montenegro and Serbia must base their future relations on the "fact" that each republic enjoys international recognition. His government seeks its own seat in the UN. PM[20] CROATIAN PRIME MINISTER RE-ELECTED PARTY LEADERRunning unopposed, Ivica Racan was re-elected head of the Social Democratic Party at its congress in Zagreb on 2 December. He stressed that there can be no normalization of relations with Serbia until Belgrade apologizes for its war against Croatia in 1991, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[21] NEW CROATIAN DAILY APPEARSIvo Pukanic, who publishes the hard-hitting weekly "Nacional," launched his new daily "Republika" on 4 December, AP reported from Zagreb. A lead article accuses four prominent individuals of joining together as early as 1997 in an attempt to dominate the media scene. Among the four is Nino Pavic, who owns a number of newspapers, including the daily "Jutarnji list" and the weekly "Globus." The other three men are Herzegovinian politician Ivic Pasalic, Tudjman-era business kingpin Miroslav Kutle, and Vinko Grubisic, who owns a Zagreb TV station. Kutle is on trial for embezzlement. Pasalic is at the center of several political and business scandals that have emerged since the new government took office less than one year ago. PM[22] TENSIONS MOUNT BETWEEN SLOVENIA, AUSTRIADimitrij Rupel, who is Slovenia's new foreign minister, plans to raise in international forums the question of whether Austria has fulfilled its obligations toward its ethnic Slovenian minority under the terms of the 1955 state treaty unless Vienna stops pressuring Ljubljana to repeal the World War II-era AVNOJ decrees. The AVNOJ decrees are the former Yugoslavia's approximate equivalent of the Czechoslovak Benes decrees. Erhard Busek, who is Austria's chief official dealing with EU expansion, called the Slovenian policy of refusing to repeal the decrees "unfortunately neither wise, nor well thought-out, nor--above all-- beneficial to Slovenia.," the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on 4 December. Two days earlier, Vienna's "Die Presse" reported on growing anger in Ljubljana over persistent Austrian expressions of concern about the safety of Slovenia's Krsko nuclear power plant. PM[23] BULGARIANS REJOICE OVER EU DECISION...Bulgarian deputies cheered on 1 December, after Prime Minister Ivan Kostov announced in the legislature that the Justice and Home Affairs Council of the EU has decided to lift visa restrictions on Bulgarian citizens, BTA reported. The lifting of visas will go into effect by May 2001, after the council's decision is approved by the European Parliament and then separately by each EU member state. Kostov called the decision "the first step toward our integration in Europe" and said what made it possible was that Bulgarians have displayed unity, regardless of political divisions. President Petar Stoyanov said that "for Bulgaria's citizens, the Berlin Wall truly fell [only] today." The council also decided, however, that in Romania's case, the visa requirement will be lifted only after Bucharest demonstrates that it meet criteria on its ability to curb illegal immigration. MS[24] ...WHILE ROMANIANS DIFFER OVER DECISIONRomanian Foreign Minister and Democratic Party leader Petre Roman said the decision of the committee "cannot be viewed as discriminatory," as Bulgaria has passed laws that are still lacking in Romania, such as the law on the status of foreigners and legislation on the protection of personal data. He added that the government has yet to strengthen border controls and introduce passports that cannot be forged. The first deputy chairmen of the Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) and the National Liberal Party (PNL), Adrian Nastase and Valeriu Stoica, criticized the decision as discriminatory against Romania, while PDSR chairman Ion Iliescu said Romanians currently "care less about visa-free travel and more about jobs in their own country." MS[25] ROMANIAN LIBERAL DEPUTY LEADER TO RUN FOR CHAIRMAN...Stoica said at a 2 December meeting of the PNL Permanent Delegation that he intends to run for the position of party chairman at the party's national congress in February 2001. Stoica also said he believes those PNL leadership members whose appeals against rulings by the National Commission for the Study of Securitate Archives are rejected must resign their positions. He said PNL chairman Mircea Ionescu-Quintus, whom the committee named as a Securitate informer, "damaged" the party's chances in the 26 November electoral contest. Ionescu-Quintus rejected the accusation and said he does not intend to renounce his parliamentary seat. MS[26] ...AND PEASANT PARTY REBUKES CHAIRMANOn 3 December, the Transition Leadership Bureau of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) designated deputy chairman Constantin Dudu Ionescu as "coordination chairman" of the bureau. The bureau rejected the proposal of Chairman Ion Diaconescu that he himself occupy that position. On 2 December, the Alliance for Romania (APR) leadership, which like the PNTCD failed to gain parliamentary representation on 26 November, "assumed responsibility" for that failure and resigned collectively. Chairman Teodor Melescanu, who last week announced he will step down, will be in charge of party affairs as head of an interim committee that is to organize the APR national convention in January 2001, Mediafax reported. MS[27] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT FAILS TO ELECT PRESIDENT...The Moldovan parliament on 1 December failed to elect a new president and is meeting on 4 December to decide whether to vote in a second round or nullify the results of the 1 December vote. Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) candidate Vladimir Voronin was supported by 48 votes, while the candidate of the center-left coalition Pavel Barbalat received 37 votes-- both well short of the 61 votes needed for election. Fifteen ballots were invalidated. MS[28] ... MAY START FROM SCRATCHScuffles and shouting matches broke out between the two camps in the parlaiment during the 1 December vote, and the ballot was interrupted, and then resumed, after PCM deputies refused to follow the secret vote procedure and were showing their ballots to fellow-PCM deputies before tossing them into the box. The PCM apparently feared defections, and the PCM Elections Committee Head Vadim Mishin said a "secret vote was a right, not a duty." The parliament later refuse to validate the result, and centrist-right deputies said they will appeal to the Central Electoral Commission to invalidate the vote. The PCM, for its part, said it will ask that parliament Chairman Dumitru Diacov be dismissed for having caused the interruption of the vote (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 2000). MS[C] END NOTE[29] THE 'END OF HISTORY' IN THE BALKANS?By Patrick MooreScarcely a week or even a few days go by as of late without some Western politician or group of politicians waxing eloquent about Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica and his allies from the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS). The Westerners routinely hail the fall of dictatorship in Serbia and birth of democracy there. Some observers even suggest that Serbia and the Balkans have ceased to be an international trouble spot and that the West can best deal with them through "soft" institutions such as the EU's Balkan Stability Pact, rather than through NATO or the UN. Some in the U.S. have added that Washington can safely consign the region to the care of Brussels and concentrate on its own interests in other parts of the globe. Such statements by usually tough and street-wise Western politicians have led many in Croatia, Albania, Kosova, and Bosnia, among others, to shake their heads in disbelief--for two reasons. First, there is the perception that the Westerners are suddenly falling all over themselves to give large sums of money and other aid to Serbia, perhaps at the expense of neighboring countries that tried hard to be helpful to the international community during the 1999 Kosova crisis and at other times. Second, and more important, the Serbs are widely seen in the region as being welcomed into international institutions and into the international community's good books without having had to meet the painstaking prerequisites for democracy, market reforms, human rights, and cooperation with the Hague-based war crimes tribunal that have been required of some of their neighbors. Croatian President Stipe Mesic, for one, has frequently tried to remind Westerners that the changes in Serbia have only just begun and that one should not be so generous or trusting until one better knows with whom and what one is actually dealing. In fact, all that is certain is that former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has been replaced by a man with strong nationalist credentials surrounded by many of the same members of the fractious opposition who failed for years to unite and overthrow the dictator. To be sure, Kostunica has a refreshing devotion to the rule of law and to the peaceful settlement of political disputes. His allies, for their part, appear to have sunk their differences for the good of their country, at least for the present. But the state apparatus and, above all, the means of coercion are still largely in the hands of the people who enjoyed power under Milosevic. General Nebojsa Pavkovic in the General Staff and security chief Rade Markovic are but two examples. And there is no guarantee that the opposition will have the strength and unity of purpose to dislodge such individuals, even if the DOS trounces the former ruling parties in the 23 December Serbian elections. In fact, problems for the DOS may really begin only once those elections are over. If the DOS does marginalize its opponents, it will not only have the satisfaction of victory but also the duty of exercising responsibility in government. For the Bulgarian Union of Democratic Forces and some other anti-communist movements in Eastern Europe in earlier years, ousting the Communists proved a poisoned chalice. This was because the opposition was then obliged to go beyond its usual litany of criticizing and complaining and start drafting and implementing constructive programs. Some seasoned anti-Communists were unable to make the transition from opposition to government, and politicians from the former regime eventually returned to power. If the politicians and parties represented in the DOS revert to large- scale public infighting and start seeking tacit or not-so-tacit alliances with their former enemies against their current allies, a post-Milosevic Serbia could prove a political free-for-all. In time, perhaps a "strong- man" figure from the old regime--or even Milosevic himself--could present himself to the electorate as the "serious man" whom the country needs to restore order and discipline. This scenario would be far removed from the glowing hopes expressed for Kostunica and the DOS in their recent meetings with Western politicians. For now, it is clear that Milosevic has been replaced at the top with "Not- Milosevic" and a group of politicians nominally committed to democracy, the rule of law, and resolving disputes by peaceful means. The DOS leadership is open to "Europe," especially when that means an end to international isolation and the start of generous aid programs. But that is it. As the presidents of Croatia and Albania have both said more than once and in public, neither the new Serbian leadership nor Serbian society as a whole has begun a "catharsis" of the emotions and beliefs that at one point led to the rise of Milosevic and ultimately to four disastrous wars. Nor do most Serbs seem to sense any need to look deeply into themselves and their political culture. In any event, Serbia has experienced a change for the better that is at least skin-deep. But the history of the region suggests that, at present, it would be unwise to conclude anything more than that. 04-12-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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