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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 231, 00-11-30Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 231, 30 November 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT PROPOSES SWEEPING TAX CUTSThe cabinet on 29 November approved changes to existing tax legislation that reduce by 50 percent the tax burden on local businesses, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The amendments entail abolishing the present two- tier scale for corporate tax, which sets a maximum 25 percent tax rate for profits in excess of 7 million drams ($12,700), and replacing it by a 20 percent flat tax rate for all businesses. Companies with an annual turnover of less than 10 million drams will be exempt from the 20 percent value- added tax. The current threshold for paying VAT is 3 million drams. The government also proposed reducing employers' social security contributions from 28 percent to 15 percent of employees' salaries and halving the maximum personal income tax rate from 30 percent to 15 percent. Individuals whose monthly wage is less than 100,000 drams will pay only 5 percent tax. The proposed changes must be approved by the parliament. LF[02] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER FINEDA Baku district court has found "Yeni Musavat," the newspaper of the opposition Musavat Party, guilty of publishing an article insulting the Saatly district electoral commission and fined the newspaper 1 million manats ($20,000), Turan reported. "Yeni Musavat" had claimed that the outcome of the 1995 parliamentary poll in Saatly, in which President Heidar Aliev's brother Djalal was elected, was falsified. The suit against the newspaper was brought by Ragim Azizov, who was appointed Saatly election commission chairman only after the 1995 ballot. LF[03] CONFUSION GROWS OVER INTERCEPTED GEORGIAN SHIPA Georgian-registered vessel intercepted by Turkish coastguards in the Aegean Sea on 22 November was transporting mercenaries to Chechnya via a Georgian Black Sea port, ITAR-TASS reported on 29 November, citing an unnamed Russian Interior Ministry source. ITAR-TASS also claimed that the ship is owned by a private Georgian company. Georgian agencies reported, however, that the ship was sold on 1 October to a Turkish businessman and that it was transporting 70 illegal immigrants from Pakistan, Morocco, Bangladesh, and Palestine to Italy. LF[04] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT SUPPORTS INCREASED SOCIAL SPENDINGNursultan Nazarbaev told journalists in Astana on 29 November that he supports some of the parliament's proposals on increasing social spending, Interfax reported. Nazarbaev said that while it is not possible to raise all pensions, those under 10,000 tenge ($70) will be increased by 450 tenges a month. To that end, spending on pensions in 2001 will be increased by 10 billion tenges, or 12 percent. Nazarbaev also said that the salaries of teachers, medical personnel, policemen, and army servicemen will be raised by 20-30 percent and that an additional 500 million tenges will be allocated to combat TB. Reuters in February quoted a Kazakh health service official as estimating that between 80,000 and 100,000 of the country's 15 million inhabitants suffer from that disease. LF[05] KYRGYZ POLITICAL PARTIES ENUMERATE PRESIDENTIAL POLL VIOLATIONSThe leaders of the Agrarian-Labor, Ata-Meken, Communist, Kairan-El and Republican Parties issued a statement in Bishkek on 29 November listing procedural violations before and during the 29 October presidential poll, which they termed "a setback for democracy in Kyrgyzstan," RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. They noted that the constitution did not allow President Askar Akaev to run for a third term and claimed that the outcome of the ballot was falsified. They also said that the linguistic commission, which barred several would-be candidates on the grounds of their alleged inadequate command of the Kyrgyz language, was unconstitutional. They point out that government media and local election officials favored the incumbent and that Akaev distributed numerous gifts to voters in the runup to the ballot. LF[06] KYRGYZ GOVERNMENT APPROVES DRAFT PRIVATIZATION PROGRAMThe cabinet on 29 November approved and submitted to the parliament a three- year privatization program that provides for the sale of the country's telecommunications network and national airline, Kyrgyzenergo, Kyrgyzneftegez, Kyrgyzgaz, and the Kadamjai antimony complex, Interfax and RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The sale of those enterprises and some 100 smaller ones is expected to bring some 900 million soms ($20 million) to the budget. LF[07] UZBEKISTAN SEEKS MODUS VIVENDI WITH AFGHANISTANUzbekistan's National Security Council secretary Mir-Akbar Rakhmonkulov told journalists in Tashkent on 29 November that Uzbekistan will not allow the U.S. use of its airbases to deliver strikes against international terrorist Osama ben Laden, Interfax reported. Kazakhstan's Foreign Minister Erlan Idrisov had issued a similar statement last week (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 November 2000). Also on 29 November, Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov said in Tashkent that Uzbekistan may open its borders with Afghanistan in the near future provided that doing so does not pose a threat to the country's national security, Interfax reported. At the same time, Komilov stressed that Tashkent will continue to demand that the Taliban extradite members of the banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who maintain permanent bases in Afghanistan. LF[08] UZBEK VILLAGERS CONFIDENT ECONOMIC SITUATION WILL IMPROVE?A poll conducted in various oblasts of Uzbekistan by the country's Public Opinion Center suggests that the rural population is more confident that the economic situation in the country will improve over the coming year than are city-dwellers, RFE/RL's Tashkent bureau reported on 29 November. Only 10 percent of an unspecified number of respondents said they think their personal economic situation will deteriorate over the next 12 months; 60 percent said they believe the country's economic situation will improve over that period. Inhabitants of the Ferghana and Namangan regions, where both population density and unemployment are high, generally professed to be optimistic that the economic situation will improve, while urban dwellers were less upbeat. Independent observers have queried the accuracy of the poll's findings. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] ETHNIC ALBANIAN GUERRILLAS SAY 'RESTRAINT' LIMITEDShaqir Shaqiri, who is a spokesman for the ethnic Albanian Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac (UCPMB), told Reuters by telephone on 29 November that the occupation of the village of Lucane by Serbian police was a violation of the cease-fire agreement between Serbian forces and the UCPMB (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 November 2000). The spokesman added that the UCPMB showed "restraint" by not opposing the Serbs. Shaqiri stressed, however, that if "the positions of the UCPMB are at risk [as a result of future Serbian actions], we will be forced to defend them." Meanwhile in Lucane, an unnamed Serbian police official told the news agency that Serbian forces did not enter the 5-kilometer-wide demilitarized buffer zone when they occupied the village. He called on ethnic Albanian civilians "who ran away to come back since there is no reason any more for them to be scared." PM[10] NATO PLEDGES COOPERATION WITH SERBIAN FORCES AGAINST 'TERRORISTS'...NATO Secretary-General Lord Robertson said in a statement in Brussels on 29 November that the forces of the Atlantic alliance will cooperate with Serbian forces against "terrorist" activities in southwestern Serbia, Reuters reported. Robertson argued that "Albanian extremist activity in the Presevo Valley is in no one's interest and only serves to heighten tensions." He did not mention the UCPMB by name. The news agency reported that the statement reflects NATO's "extreme frustration with Albanian nationalism" in Kosova since the end of the 1999 conflict. The term "terrorists" has been used chiefly by Belgrade and its backers abroad. PM[11] ...PRESENTS SIX-POINT PROGRAMRobertson's statement in Brussels on 29 November included a six-point program for the region, adding that "KFOR and the Yugoslav and Serbian authorities will be able to address these issues directly and pragmatically." NATO pledged an information campaign in Kosova to point out the political problems posed by "extremist" activity in southwestern Serbia. Second, KFOR will "mobilize" Kosovar politicians who may be able to exert a moderating influence on the UCPMB. Third, the alliance will help facilitate contacts between Albanians and Serbian authorities in the Presevo region. Fourth, KFOR will work closely together with Serbian police. Fifth, peacekeepers will step up surveillance operations along the border with the zone. Sixth, "KFOR will also continue to deter and disrupt identified illegal or terrorist-related activity in Kosovo in the vicinity of the eastern boundary." The same day, NATO troops seized an unspecified shipment of arms and UCPMB uniforms in eastern Kosova, Reuters added. PM[12] BRITISH POLITICIAN TURNS DOWN KOSOVA POSTFormer British Liberal leader Paddy Ashdown told UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan by telephone on 29 November that he is not interested in succeeding France's Bernard Kouchner as the chief civilian administrator in Kosova, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Ashdown had been widely tipped for the post, which Kouchner has said he would like to give up (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 November 2000). PM[13] TENSE TIMES IN ALBANIAN CAPITALPolice reinforcements arrived in Tirana and Bajram Curri on 29 November following political violence by supporters of the opposition Democratic Party (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 November 2000). In Tirana, "thousands" of protesters smashed windows in the main government building, AP reported. Deputy Interior Minister Bujan Imci said; "We are determined to protect state institutions with the full force of the law." In Vienna, Austrian Foreign Minister Benita Ferrero-Waldner said on behalf of the OSCE that all sides should show maximum "restraint and avoid any use of force." PM[14] SCHOOL CLASSES RESUME IN ETHNICALLY MIXED BOSNIAN TOWNAfter a break of more than one month, classes resumed at two Brcko high schools on 29 November, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 October 2000). PM[15] ALL THREE BOSNIAN ARMIES AGREEGeneral Novica Simic, who heads the General Staff of the army of the Republika Srpska, said in Banja Luka that he will continue to make the 15 percent cuts in his forces ordered recently by the Bosnian joint presidency. By the end of 2000, the Bosnian Serb forces will consist of 10, 185 professional soldiers, non-commissioned officers, and officers, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Simic stressed, however, that representatives of all three armies in Bosnia have called for an end to further personnel cuts until new jobs can be found for demobilized soldiers. The Republika Srpska, in particular, has a very high unemployment rate, including for young men of military age. PM[16] EU FORCE 'READY FOR BOSNIA'French General Jean-Pierre Kelche said that the EU's planned rapid reaction force is ready to take on its first assignment. "Nothing prevents us tomorrow from saying that we could take [on] responsibility in Bosnia," London's "Financial Times" on 30 November quoted him as saying (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 27 October 2000). The daily points out that unspecified other European commanders are less optimistic about the preparedness of the force. The newspaper also notes that "neither Washington nor NATO has shown any sign of wishing to pull out" of Bosnia. PM[17] UN'S BOSNIA CHIEF REJECTS CHARGES AGAINST POLICEJacques Klein, who is the top UN official in Bosnia, rejected charges of improper behavior made by UN police officials against six unnamed UN police, Reuters reported from Sarajevo on 30 November. Officials of the International Police Task Force (IPTF) said that the six had been suspended from the force, but Klein said that they voluntarily resigned before leaving Bosnia recently. It is not clear what the six men's offense was. A statement from the IPTF suggested that they exceeded their authority on 13 November when they raided "three night clubs in Prijedor," together with local police. The raid allegedly led to the freeing of 33 Romanian, Moldovan, Ukrainian, and Russian women from forced prostitution. One of the night club owners said, however, that the six had been blackmailing him and were frequent, aggressive customers in his establishment, AP reported. PM[18] ROW OVER NEW YUGOSLAV NATIONAL BANK CHIEFYugoslav Prime Minister Zoran Zizic of Montenegro's Socialist People's Party (SNP) said in Podgorica on 29 November that his party will join forces with the rest of former President Slobodan Milosevic's ex-governing coalition to oust new National Bank chief Mladjan Dinkic if he does not name Vuk Ognjanovic of the SNP as his deputy. Dinkic has rejected Ognjanovic, who he says is linked to the Milosevic-era policies of hyperinflation, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Elsewhere in Podgorica, several representatives of the governing coalition stressed that Montenegro does not recognize the authority of the Belgrade-based bank. Miodrag Vukovic, who is an aide to President Milo Djukanovic, called that institution the "National Bank of Serbia" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 November 2000). PM[19] ILIESCU BACKED BY CENTRIST OPPOSITION IN ROMANIAN RUNOFF...The leaderships of the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Party, meeting on 29 November, called upon their supporters to "reject extremism" and back Ion Iliescu in the 10 December runoff. They agreed to coordinate positions on the one year-pact proposed by the Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) and on negotiations with the PDSR about the pact. They said the PDSR will prove its readiness to cooperate with the opposition only if it includes its proposals on "national priorities" in the future minority government's program. The Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR) has postponed making a decision on whether to back Iliescu and said it will decide after consulting its local branches. MS[20] ...RESPONDS TO OPPOSITION'S SUGGESTIONSPDSR chairman Iliescu responded that his party is ready to discuss with the PNL and the Democrats their suggestions for establishing "national priorities" and possibly include those suggestions in the new cabinet's program. Iliescu said the PDSR is not making the same offer to the UDMR, with whom collaboration is possible "only at parliamentary level," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[21] ROMANIAN EXTREMISTS WANT COALITION WITH PDSR...The Steering Committee of the Greater Romanian Party (PRM) said on 29 November that the electorate has "clearly signaled" it wants a coalition between the PDSR and the PRM and that the PRM is ready for this partnership. The PDSR would "assume a great responsibility if it allies itself with political forces that have repeatedly proved their incompetence and inclination toward treason," the committee said. Iliescu responded that the PDSR is ready for a "dialogue" with the PRM but cannot envisage a coalition with it because the two parties' programs are "incompatible." PRM leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor said later on 29 November that if the PDSR "boycots" the PRM after his victory in the presidential runoff, he intends to make use of his "presidential prerogatives" to dissolve the parliament and announce early elections. The constitution does not provide for such presidential prerogatives. MS[22] ...THREATEN JOURNALISTS WITH LABOR CAMPSPRM Iasi deputy Anghel Stanciu on 29 November said that journalists who have "sold out to the West" could be sent to labor camps. In this connection, he mentioned the planned Bucharest-River Danube canal: in the 1950s, many communist regime opponents perished in forced labor camps at the Danube-Black Sea canal. Stanciu later denied making that statement, saying it had been "distorted" and "taken out of context," Mediafax reported. On 28 November, PRM Secretary General Gheorghe Funar said that if the PRM "comes to power," the UDMR will be outlawed. Funar commented that UDMR leaders have "nothing to fear" because they will "benefit from the personal protection" of future President Tudor, who is known to be "a Christian soul who can wrong no one," Mediafax reported, citing the Cluj- based Hungarian language daily "Szabadsag." MS.[23] MOLDOVAN SPEAKER WARNS AGAINST POLITICAL, ECONOMIC 'CHAOS'Parliamentary chairman Dumitru Diacov said in an interview with "Argumenty i fakty-Moldova" published on 29 November that Moldova "risks dissolving into chaos" if the parliament fails to elect a new president on 1 December. Diacov also said that the failure to elect a head of state will also rob Moldova of much-needed credits from international borrowers. He noted that the center-right coalition that supported the candidacy of Constitutional Court chairman Pavel Barbalat is "only seven votes short" of the 61 needed to elect the head of state. Diacov harshly criticized the Party of Moldovan Communists chairman Vladimir Voronin, saying he imposed his presidential candidacy on his party and, if elected president, will run Moldova "the way things are done in other countries ruled by [former communist] party secretary generals, " Infotag reported. MS[24] BULGARIAN PREMIER APPEALS TO FRANCE TO HELP LIFT VISA REQUIREMENTSIn a 29 November letter to French President Jacques Chirac, Prime Minister Ivan Kostov said Sofia is asking Paris to support its efforts to join the EU and NATO and have the visa requirement on Bulgarians traveling to EU countries lifted, AP reported. "I want to believe France is taking into account the efforts and the indisputable success of Bulgaria to become a reliable barrier against the [illegal] immigration pressure on the EU, including pressure from third countries," Kostov wrote. On 30 November, a committee formed by EU interior and justice ministers is to examine how to respond to Bulgaria's request to have the visa requirements lifted. MS[C] END NOTE[25] COUNTING AND ACCOUNTING AFTER THE ROMANIAN ELECTIONBy Michael ShafirOnce the ballots have been counted, the accounting should begin. And it already has in Romania. The entire leadership of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) resigned two days after the 26 November elections, as a result of which that party was eliminated from the parliament. It is doubtful, however, whether introspection will be practiced by all those who contributed to the triumphant return to power of the Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR), to the transformation of the extremist Greater Romania Party (PRM) into Romania's second-strongest parliamentary formation, and to the nightmarish scenario about to be staged: a runoff between PDSR leader Ion Iliescu and PRM leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor for the highest state office--the presidency. Those outgoing coalition parties that gained parliamentary representation-- the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Party (7.5 percent and 7.4 percent respectively in the Senate ballot and 6.8 and 7 percent respectively in the Chamber of Deputies vote)--are unlikely to emulate the PNTCD. Yet their contribution to the debacle was no less, and was perhaps even more, substantial. The two were members of the ever-bickering coalition formed after 1996 by the pro-Western Democratic Convention of Romania (CDR), the Democratic Party, and the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR). The PNL and the Democrats held important portfolios in the coalition, but it was the PNTCD from among whose ranks two out of its three premiers (Victor Ciorbea and Radu Vasile) were nominated. This is one of the reasons why the electorate handed down more severe punishment to the PNTCD, which ran as the main formation of the Democratic Convention 2000 alliance, than to the PNL and the Democrats. The PNL, meanwhile, deserted the CDR, while the Democrats opted long ago to be simultaneously in the ruling coalition and in opposition. Opposition parties never win elections, Winston Churchill is reputed to have once said; rather, it is the government that loses them. Romania is no exception. In 1996, the PDSR was swept out of power owing to disastrous policies that delayed reforms. The CDR came to power promising to implement those reforms and to do so quickly. But it hardly got them started, being more preoccupied with intra- and inter-party skirmishes. Meanwhile, poverty and unemployment grew, the chances of European integration dwindled, and corruption flourished. By 2000, those with short memories or nostalgia for the "protective hand" of the state had forgotten the PDSR's earlier sins. The party--an unreformed "successor party" to the Communists-- was returned to power as the largest in the parliament, receiving 37.1 percent backing in the Senate ballot and 36.6 percent in the Chamber of Deputies vote. But its representation will be stronger owing to the division of the "spoils," namely, the votes cast for parties that did not pass the 5 percent electoral hurdle. In 1996 the PDSR had scored 23.1 and 21.5 percent in the elections for the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. The extent of the outgoing coalition's poor showing becomes apparent only when voter turnout is examined. In 2000, turnout was down some 20 percentage points on 1996. The bulk of those who stayed away were almost certainly former CDR voters, and this gave an advantage to parties that managed to enlist the support of important segments of the electorate. Viewed from this perspective, the PDSR's performance is less impressive than that of the PRM. In 1996, the latter party had scored 4.5 percent in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies elections (a small increase over its 3.9 percent backing in 1992). The increase this year over 1996 was nearly four-fold: 21 percent in the Senate elections and 19.5 in the elections for the chamber. How can one explain the large support for a party that is anti-Hungarian, anti-Roma, anti-Semitic, and overtly populist? First, the PRM benefited from disillusion with both the PDSR and the CDR. Tudor has promoted himself as "righteous" and his party as untainted by Romania's rampant corruption. His promises to solve the country through a "dictatorship of the law" are attractive to an unsophisticated, impoverished, and desperate electorate. Second, Tudor has managed to attract large segments of the younger electorate, for whom his past as a Ceausescu court poet is irrelevant and who sees its future as bleak. His "solutions" are both radical and simplistic, particularly those blaming the current situation on Romania's foreign "enemies"--among whom Tudor counts the IMF , the World Bank, and an undefined, but obviously Jewish-led globalization drive-- and on its domestic "puppets." Third, Tudor did exceptionally well in Transylvania, the country's economically most developed region. This indicates that poverty and other economic grounds do not tell the whole story of the PRM's success. The party benefited from the disintegration in Transylvania of the Party of Romanian National Unity (PUNR), whose former leader, Gheorghe Funar, is now PRM secretary general. Support for the PUNR, which failed to reach parliamentary representation in alliance with another party, has clearly been transferred to the PRM. Furthermore, the PRM received more than double the votes cast for it and for the PUNR together in 1996. This indicates that its appeal has gained ground even among former supporters of the CDR. Perhaps those CDR- supporters among Romania's intellectuals, whose praise for and defense of interwar extreme nationalism and nationalists indirectly legitimized Tudor, would be well advised to start asking themselves some questions. 30-11-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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