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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 189, 00-09-29
RFE/RL NEWSLINE
Vol. 4, No. 189, 29 September 2000
CONTENTS
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT PLEASED WITH RUSSIAN VISIT
[02] ARMENIA NEEDS $50 MILLION FOR REFUGEE HOUSING
[03] A HEALTHY AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT STOPS IN LONDON
[04] GEORGIA, AZERBAIJAN SWAP TERRITORY
[05] RUSSIAN GENERAL THINKS ABKHAZ MANDATE SHOULD BE EXTENDED ANOTHER YEAR
[06] GERMANY PROMISES DROUGHT AID TO GEORGIA
[07] KAZAKHSTAN'S NAZARBAEV IN TURKEY
[08] KAZAKH POLICE KILL FOUR UIGHUR ACTIVISTS
[09] KAZAKH POLICE DEPORT VISA REGIME VIOLATORS
[10] KAZAKH-UZBEK BORDER TALKS CONTINUE
[11] RUSSIAN-TAJIK MANEUVERS TAKE PLACE NEAR AFGHAN BORDER
[12] TURKMEN PRESIDENT RESHUFFLES GOVERNMENT
[13] UZBEK COURT SENTENCES ISLAMIST TO DEATH
[14] OLYMPIC MEDAL COUNT--PART 1 COUNTRIES
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[15] GENERAL STRIKE BEGINS IN SERBIA
[16] MILOSEVIC LAUNCHES CAMPAIGN FOR SECOND ROUND IN YUGOSLAV VOTE
[17] GREECE URGES KOSTUNICA TO CONSIDER SECOND ROUND OF YUGOSLAV VOTE
[18] MONTENEGRIN GOVERNMENT HOPES FOR TALKS WITH SERBIA
[19] U.S. 'PREPARED FOR CONTINGENCIES' IN SERBIA...
[20] ...AS CLINTON CALLS FOR LIFTING SERBIAN SANCTIONS
[21] SKEPTICISM IN CROATIA OVER CALLS FOR LIFTING SANCTIONS
[22] CROATIAN PRESIDENT FIRES SEVEN GENERALS
[23] SLOVENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER TO PRESENT CASE IN WASHINGTON
[24] SLOVENIAN HEALTH WORKERS ANNOUNCE WARNING STRIKE
[25] SWISS SAFE STOLEN IN KOSOVA
[26] ALBANIAN PRESIDENT CALLS FOR PEACEFUL ELECTIONS
[27] AMNESTY APPEALS TO MACEDONIA FOR CONSCIENTIOUS OBJECTORS
[28] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT DECIDES TO COMPENSATE INVESTMENT FUND VICTIMS
[29] ROMANIAN MAVERICK MAYOR ATTACKS HUNGARIAN CONSULATE IN CLUJ
[30] BULGARIAN, ROMANIAN PREMIERS URGE MILOSEVIC TO ADMIT DEFEAT
[31] OLYMPIC MEDAL COUNT--PART 2 COUNTRIES
[C] END NOTE
[32] THE KREMLIN VERSUS THE REPORTER
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT PLEASED WITH RUSSIAN VISIT
On his return to Yerevan on 28 September, Armenian President Robert
Kocharian said he is "satisfied" with his visit to Moscow and Saratov, ITAR-
TASS reported. He said that new agreements signed with Moscow will help to
improve economic conditions in his country, and he added that Yerevan hopes
to expand ties with Armenian diaspora communities inside the Russian
Federation, saying that his visit to Saratov contributed to that process.
PG
[02] ARMENIA NEEDS $50 MILLION FOR REFUGEE HOUSING
An Armenian refugee official told Noyan Tapan on 27 September that Yerevan
needs some $50 million to solve the housing crisis now faced by refugees in
that country. He said that the Armenian government had issued appeals to a
number of international organizations. PG
[03] A HEALTHY AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT STOPS IN LONDON
Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev stopped in London on 28 September to
rest on his way back from the Cleveland Clinic in the U.S., ITAR-TASS
reported. Members of his delegation told the Russian news service that
Aliev is "fit and cheerful." Aliev is scheduled to return to Baku on 29
September. PG
[04] GEORGIA, AZERBAIJAN SWAP TERRITORY
In a move that Georgian Television described as "unprecedented," Georgia
and Azerbaijan have agreed to resolve a border dispute by an equal exchange
of 66.5 hectares of land, Caucasus Press reported on 28 September. The two
countries must still resolve another border dispute, namely at the Red
Bridge: Tbilisi argues that Azerbaijani border guards have moved their
border post there 500 meters into Georgian territory. Meanwhile, Georgian
border guard officials said Tbilisi currently is able to guard less than
half of the country's state borders. PG
[05] RUSSIAN GENERAL THINKS ABKHAZ MANDATE SHOULD BE EXTENDED ANOTHER YEAR
Welcoming Moscow's decision to extend the mandate of CIS forces in Abkhazia
until the end of 2000, General Sergei Korovko, the commander of CIS
peacekeeping forces, said he believes that their mandate should be extended
for yet another year, Interfax reported on 28 September. PG
[06] GERMANY PROMISES DROUGHT AID TO GEORGIA
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder told visiting Georgian President Eduard
Shevardnadze that Berlin will provide DM 2.7 million ($1.2 million) to help
Georgia overcome the effects of drought, Kavkasia-Press agency reported on
28 September. Shevardnadze was in Berlin to take part in the celebrations
of the 10th anniversary of the unification of Germany. Schroeder also
thanked Shevardnadze for both his past contributions and his current
international activities. PG
[07] KAZAKHSTAN'S NAZARBAEV IN TURKEY
In Turkey for a short holiday, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbaev met
briefly with his Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Kazakh radio
reported on 28 September. Nazarbaev said he was pleased with the increasing
volume of trade and other ties between the two countries. PG
[08] KAZAKH POLICE KILL FOUR UIGHUR ACTIVISTS
Kazakhstan's special forces have killed four Chinese citizens of Uighur
nationality, Prime Minister Kasymzhomart Tokaev announced on 28 September,
Khabar TV reported. He said the four, who were part of a group seeking
independence for Eastern Turkestan, had refused to negotiate with the
police and thus had to be killed in a shootout. But the premier stressed
that the four had been killed not because of their nationality but because
they were terrorists. PG
[09] KAZAKH POLICE DEPORT VISA REGIME VIOLATORS
Kazakh Commercial TV reported on 28 September that the police have deported
28 people, mostly Uzbeks and Tajiks, from the northern portion of the
country. The station also reported that some 45 Chechens were detained
during the roundup there. And it noted that almost all of those detained
said they knew nothing about Kazakhstan's visa regime requirements. PG
[10] KAZAKH-UZBEK BORDER TALKS CONTINUE
The third session of border talks between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan began
in Tashkent on 28 September, Kazakh Khabar TV reported. Both sides
reportedly are "satisfied" with the progress thus far. PG
[11] RUSSIAN-TAJIK MANEUVERS TAKE PLACE NEAR AFGHAN BORDER
Russian and Tajik units staged a joint military exercise near the Afghan
border, ITAR-TASS reported on 28 September. The same day, Russian border
guard commanders met with representatives of the anti-Taliban coalition,
the Russian news agency reported. Meanwhile, Aleksandr Markin, the
commander of Russian border guards in Tajikistan, told Interfax that his
forces were "strong enough" to prevent any Taliban incursions. PG
[12] TURKMEN PRESIDENT RESHUFFLES GOVERNMENT
Saparmurat Niyazov has demoted his economics minister, Matkarim Rajapov,
for poor performance and appointed a deputy prime minister, Orasmut
Begmyradov, to fill his post, Turkmen Television's First channel reported
on 28 September. PG
[13] UZBEK COURT SENTENCES ISLAMIST TO DEATH
A Tashkent court sentenced one man to death and another 13 to prison for
their involvement in the Islamist insurgency in Uzbekistan last November,
Uzbek state television reported on 28 September. The court noted that the
14, as well as 11 others who were killed in the fighting, had entered
Uzbekistan from Tajikistan. PG
[14] OLYMPIC MEDAL COUNT--PART 1 COUNTRIES
Through 28 SEPTEMBER
CountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
Russia20192261 Georgia0044
Kazakhstan1102
Armenia0022 Azerbaijan1001
Kyrgyzstan0011 Tajikistan0000
Turkmenistan0000 Uzbekistan0000
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[15] GENERAL STRIKE BEGINS IN SERBIA
In response to a call by opposition leader Zoran Djindjic that "Serbia must
stop in order to go forward," thousands of high school students walked out
of classrooms in Nis, Gornji Milanovic, and several other cities and towns
on 29 September, AP reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 September 2000). In
Cacak, people left shops and offices to take to the streets to demand that
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic step down and yield power to Vojislav
Kostunica. A major rally is planned for the afternoon in Belgrade. Djindjic
has also appealed to the army and to transport workers to join the general
strike, but it is not clear to what extent they have heeded his call. PM
[16] MILOSEVIC LAUNCHES CAMPAIGN FOR SECOND ROUND IN YUGOSLAV VOTE
Milosevic met with top officials of his Socialist Party of Serbia in
Belgrade on 28 September to discuss strategy for the 8 October second round
of the presidential vote. The opposition refuses to accept a second round
on the grounds that it won the race outright in the first one (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 28 September 2000). State-run television footage of Milosevic at
the meeting is the first of him since the 24 September elections, when he
and his wife, Mira Markovic, cast their ballots. Observers note that there
have been persistent rumors in Serbia in recent days that Milosevic has
fled abroad. The television footage may have been shown to counter those
reports. PM
[17] GREECE URGES KOSTUNICA TO CONSIDER SECOND ROUND OF YUGOSLAV VOTE
Reuters reported from Athens on 29 September that Foreign Minister George
Papandreou has telephoned Kostunica from Sydney to urge him to "keep all
possibilities open" and consider participating in the second round,
provided international monitors are present. An unnamed "Greek diplomatic
source" told the news agency: "We see many, many irregularities [in the
first round vote]. Milosevic is politically finished. He is trying to win
time." Observers note that Greek businesses have been very active in
Macedonia and Albania in recent years and stand a good chance of doing well
in Serbia once international sanctions are lifted. PM
[18] MONTENEGRIN GOVERNMENT HOPES FOR TALKS WITH SERBIA
Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic said in Podgorica on 28 September that
Kostunica is the winner of the presidential vote. Vujanovic added that the
Montenegrin government hopes the new government in Belgrade will soon
dissolve the federal parliament and launch talks with Podgorica on
redefining the legal basis of the federation. "Vijesti" on 29 September
quoted President Milo Djukanovic as saying that Podgorica will not accept
any "anti-Montenegrin policy" from Belgrade, be it from a democratic
government or a dictatorial regime. Observers note that during the election
campaign, Kostunica made some disparaging remarks about Montenegro. He
recently accused its leaders of "turning their backs" on the Serbian
opposition (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 September 2000). PM
[19] U.S. 'PREPARED FOR CONTINGENCIES' IN SERBIA...
U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen said on 28 September that Washington
is pleased with the growing momentum in Serbia against the Milosevic regime,
AP reported. Cohen added, however, that U.S. forces in the region are
"prepared for contingencies." He did not elaborate. Speaking recently in
Prague, former NATO Supreme Commander Europe General Wesley Clark said it
is important that the West keep Milosevic guessing as to exactly what NATO
might or might not do were Milosevic to use violence against his opponents
in Montenegro or elsewhere. PM
[20] ...AS CLINTON CALLS FOR LIFTING SERBIAN SANCTIONS
U.S. President Bill Clinton said in Washington on 28 September that "I
think we should all say, in unequivocal terms, as soon as there is
democratic government [in Serbia], the sanctions should be lifted," AP
reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 September 2000). Clinton noted that
"the case the opposition made--based on their actual numbers, poll place by
poll place--was pretty persuasive, especially since it hasn't been refuted
by the national [election] commission... It's time for Mr. Milosevic to
heed the call of the Serb people, step down, and allow a peaceful
democratic transition to take place," Reuters reported. After meeting with
Clinton, Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok said: "A double message should be
very clear. The [Serbian] people said: 'We want to get rid of Milosevic.'
And we say as soon as there is a new leadership, the sanctions will be
over." PM
[21] SKEPTICISM IN CROATIA OVER CALLS FOR LIFTING SANCTIONS
Many Croats feel bitter and skeptical over calls by the EU and the U.S. to
lift sanctions against Serbia, AP reported from Zagreb on 29 September.
Many people argue that Serbia is being offered a reward without having
first to meet tough European standards on political freedoms and ethnic
tolerance. Croatia, those Croats argue, has had to meet rigorous standards
in order to be accepted into Euro-Atlantic institutions but has received
little to show for its efforts. Top Croatian leaders have also warned that
Kostunica is a nationalist and that it is too early to welcome Serbia back
to the international community (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 September 2000).
PM
[22] CROATIAN PRESIDENT FIRES SEVEN GENERALS
Some 12 generals sent an open letter to the state-run Hina news agency on
28 September criticizing recent arrests of war crimes suspects as a
politically-motivated effort by the new government to discredit the 1991-
1995 war of independence (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 29 September 2000).
Deputy Prime Minister Goran Granic rejected the charges, added that
generals on active duty should not make political statements in public,
RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The next day, President Stipe Mesic
ordered seven of the generals--Ante Gotovina, Kresimir Cosic, Damir
Krsticevic, Ivan Kapular, Milenko Filipovic, Davor Domazet-Lose, and Mirko
Norac--into early retirement, Hina reported. Mesic said that his "message
to those who think they can bring down the government with pamphlets is
that they are playing the wrong hand." He added that the army must become
"depoliticized." The 12 generals were all strong supporters of the previous
government. PM
[23] SLOVENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER TO PRESENT CASE IN WASHINGTON
Janez Jansa has left Ljubljana for meetings in Washington with Defense
Secretary Cohen and several other leading officials, including Senators
Joseph Biden and George Voinovich, Hina reported on 29 September. Jansa
will discuss Slovenia's preparations for NATO membership, its support for
international efforts in Bosnia and Kosova, and its backing for democratic
forces in Macedonia, Croatia, and Montenegro. Jansa has warned that
Kostunica is a nationalist and that the West should not be in a hurry to
ease sanctions on Serbia. PM
[24] SLOVENIAN HEALTH WORKERS ANNOUNCE WARNING STRIKE
Medical personnel will stop work for two hours on the morning of 10 October
in conjunction with an ongoing pay dispute, the Ljubljana radio station 24
UR reported on 29 September. PM
[25] SWISS SAFE STOLEN IN KOSOVA
Unidentified burglars took a safe containing more than $600,000 from the
Prishtina offices of the Swiss Kosova Coordination Office on 28 September.
UN spokeswoman Susan Manuel said: "We have had several robberies where the
entire safe disappeared. Unfortunately it is a phenomenon of Kosovo," dpa
reported. PM
[26] ALBANIAN PRESIDENT CALLS FOR PEACEFUL ELECTIONS
Rexhep Meidani said in Tirana on 28 September that "our free vote [in local
elections on 1 October] is important to let the world know that we have a
consolidated democracy in Albania and that we are a civilized European
nation," dpa reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 September 2000). Elsewhere,
national police chief Veli Myftari told Radio Tirana that armed criminal
groups might engage in violence in conjunction with the vote. He added,
however, that "we have taken all the necessary measures to crush them."
Police are on alert throughout Albania, and soldiers are guarding many
public buildings, AP reported. Political life remains highly polarized
despite the efforts of some candidates to conduct their campaigns in a more
professional manner (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 15 and 26 September 2000).
PM
[27] AMNESTY APPEALS TO MACEDONIA FOR CONSCIENTIOUS OBJECTORS
Amnesty International said in a statement from London on 27 September that
it is urging the Macedonian government to amend its legislation to enable
persons to apply for conscientious objector status even after they have
already entered the military or the reserves. New legislation makes
military service compulsory for all men aged between 17 and 55 years. New
conscripts have only 15 days to appeal for conscientious objector status.
The statement cited the cases of three members of the Jehovah's Witnesses
who were imprisoned in recent months for refusing to do military service.
The three had offered to perform alternative civilian service. PM
[28] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT DECIDES TO COMPENSATE INVESTMENT FUND VICTIMS
Lawmakers on 28 September approved a recent recommendation by the special
commission set up to investigate the collapse of the private National
Investment Fund earlier this year, the RFE/RL Bucharest bureau reported.
That recommendation calls on the government to submit its proposals within
15 days for compensating investors in the fraudulent fund. They also said
the government must expand the investigation into the scheme to all
institutions and private individuals who were involved in, or profited from,
the fraud. MS
[29] ROMANIAN MAVERICK MAYOR ATTACKS HUNGARIAN CONSULATE IN CLUJ
Cluj Mayor Gheorghe Funar has addressed a letter to Foreign Minister Petre
Roman claiming that the coat of arms on the Hungarian banner hoisted
outside the consulate in Cluj symbolizes Greater Hungary, Hungarian media
reported on 27 September. It is not the first time that Funar has made such
a claim, but this time he added that the consulate's official seal evokes
the so-called Vienna Dictate (Hungarians call it the "Vienna Award") of
1940, as a result of which Hungary briefly regained and re-incorporated
northern Transylvania. Consul General Laszlo Alfoldi responded that the
issue of the banner has been one of Funar's "idees fixes" for many years.
He noted that Funar fails to distinguish between the one-time coat of arms
of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy and that of modern-day Hungary. As for the
seal, Alfoldi emphasized that it is bilingual, including the town's name in
both Romanian and Hungarian. MS
[30] BULGARIAN, ROMANIAN PREMIERS URGE MILOSEVIC TO ADMIT DEFEAT
Ivan Kostov and his Romanian counterpart, Mugur Isarescu, said in a joint
statement on 28 September that they "request the powers in Belgrade to
respect the will for change of Serbia's population," Reuters and local
media reported. They said the Yugoslav electorate demonstrated through its
vote that President Slobodan Milosevic "no longer represents it." Kostov
and Isarescu met at the Belene military training grounds in Bulgaria, where
they witnessed peacekeeping exercises by a joint Bulgarian-Romanian force.
Bulgarian Defense Minister Boiko Noev said the two countries are "strong
candidates" for NATO membership because they will "complete the region's
security map." In addition, Kostov and Isarescu announced they will jointly
appeal to Ukraine to allow the transit of Russian gas to the Balkans via
its territory. MS
[31] OLYMPIC MEDAL COUNT--PART 2 COUNTRIES
Through 28 SEPTEMBER
CountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
Romania104418 Ukraine37717
Belarus311014 Poland64111
Bulgaria53210
Czech Rep.2237
Hungary3216
Slovakia1315 Lithuania2024
Latvia1113 Estonia1023
Slovenia2002 Croatia1012
Moldova0101 Yugoslavia0101
Albania0000
Bosnia-Herzeg.0000 Macedonia0000
[C] END NOTE
[32] THE KREMLIN VERSUS THE REPORTER
By Julie A. Corwin
Next Monday--2 October--RFE/RL journalist Andrei Babitskii goes on trial
in Makhachkala, Daghestan. After being beaten with a truncheon, locked in
the trunk of a car, and confined to a tiny cell in a detention camp in
Chechnya last winter, Babitskii would seem a more likely plaintiff or
witness in a criminal trial--than a defendant. Officially, his crime is
using a forged passport--a passport, which he says was forced upon him by
men who kept him against his will and transported him to the Russian
border. But the real charge against him--now and then--is quite different:
"unpatriotic journalism."
Russian President Vladimir Putin has already explained the concept himself
in an interview included in a book called "In the First Person" released
shortly before the Russian presidential elections in March of this year.
Putin asserted that Babitskii is not a "Russian journalist," although he
may be a Russian citizen. Babitskii dared to "write that [the Chechens] are
cutting off the heads of our soldiers in order to portray the whole horror
of the war." Putin accuses Babitskii of being sympathetic to the Chechens--
"of justifying the decapitation of people"--a traitorous stance when Russia
is at war.
According to Putin, "Russia's defeat during the first Chechen war was to a
large extent owing to the state of society's morale. Russians did not
understand what ideals our soldiers were fighting for." Noting that during
the second "war," Russian media coverage has been much more favorable,
Putin remarks "this time around, fortunately, it's different. [But]
Babitskii and his ilk were essentially trying to reverse the situation."
The media coverage had changed, but Babitskii, who had covered both wars,
remained the same. This time around, fewer journalists are operating in the
region. And they are not supposed to travel unescorted or report from the
Chechens' side or interview Chechen officials. Babitskii, however,
continued going where other journalists did not: occasionally filing
reports from the side of the Chechen fighters, whom he failed to demonize,
as well as reporting from the federal troops' side of the conflict. He
reported on Chechen commanders he believed were guilty of crimes. He
reported on civilian suffering and instances of indiscriminate bombing. In
short, he reported what he saw and heard.
Then one day--last January--Babitskii's "unpatriotic" activities caught up
with him. Just days after implicitly contradicting a statement by Armed
Forces Chief of the General Staff Anatolii Kvashnin about Russian troops'
territorial gains in Chechnya in a report of both sides' troop movements
and after being sharply criticized by the Russian military, Babitskii was
detained by federal troops in Grozny. They claimed at the time that he did
not have the proper accreditation. Unable to contact his family, his
employers, or a lawyer, he was confined at the Chernokozovo detention
center, where he shared a tiny cell with two other prisoners. They slept
standing up. Although he was exempted from the torture inflicted on
selected prisoners, he did get the usual treatment afforded every newcomer:
several dozen hits on the torso with a nightstick. He and his cellmates
were also treated to occasional canisters of teargas thrown in their
direction.
Approximately two weeks later, after agreeing to be handed over to a known
Chechen field commander Atgeriev in exchange for Russian POWs, Russian
troops handed him over to people they said were Chechen rebels but that
Babitskii insists were working for Moscow. He was then held in a closed
room for two weeks until on 23 February, he was transported in the trunk of
a car from Chechnya to Daghestan, somehow managing to evade all federal
military checkpoints. There, both his Russian and international passports
were taken from him and he was given an Azerbaijani passport and taken to
the Azerbaijan border. He managed to convince his "escort" to take him back
to Makhachkala, where he was arrested for carrying a false passport. After
four days in a jail in Makhachkala, he was put on a plane late one night
heading back to Moscow and released on his on recognizance pending trial.
Six months later, Babitskii is now set to return to North Caucasus, but
not as a reporter--not to continue the work that won him journalistic
recognition from the OSCE and the International Center for Journalists and,
more important, the respect of his fellow reporters in Chechnya--but as a
defendant. At a press conference this week, Babitskii said that he expects
a guilty verdict, if only because he "is well acquainted with the workings
of the Russian justice system." Babitskii and his lawyer have appealed to
the international journalist community to attend the trial so that the
court process takes place in "in the glare of truth and openness." But even
if found guilty, Babitskii is unlikely to go to jail because his case would
fall under an amnesty granted by the Russian State Duma this spring.
But he is equally unlikely to return to Chechnya to cover that conflict in
the near future. And, after hearing of Babitskii's ordeal and witnessing
his being handed over to masked gunmen on national television, how many
other journalists are likely to follow in his footsteps? That there may not
be that many would appear to be the whole point of this latest Kremlin
campaign.
END NOTE (PART II)
WHAT NEXT IN SERBIA?
By Patrick Moore
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic insists on a second round in the
presidential vote, while the opposition demands that Vojislav Kostunica's
victory be recognized. This standoff is unlikely to continue, but what the
unpredictable Milosevic will do is anyone's guess.
Milosevic has made a gross miscalculation. He apparently thought he could
stage a presidential vote on 24 September and win a new term of office
because the opposition would remain divided. To his surprise and that of
many other people, the opposition has united. The opposition leaders who
did not join the united Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) now find
themselves marginalized, while Kostunica has become the standard-bearer of
all important political forces opposed to Milosevic.
Perhaps the dictator is hoping that he can buy time by insisting on a
second round on 8 October. But to what purpose? Does he think that the
opposition, which now senses victory, will fall apart in such a short
period? Or does he believe that with an additional two weeks to prepare, he
can steal the run-off vote?
There are other, less savory scenarios, however, for what Milosevic might
try to do with extra time. One is that he might stage an incident in
Montenegro or in Serbia that would give him the excuse to declare a state
of emergency and annul the election or indefinitely postpone the second
round. A similar scenario suggests that he might seek a pretext for a full-
fledged conflict in Montenegro, thereby provoking the fifth and potentially
bloodiest Balkan war of his career.
A key factor in these scenarios is the loyalty of the army and the police.
Milosevic appears to command the allegiance of the top military commanders,
whom he appointed. But middle-level officers may be asking themselves
whether Milosevic will still be their boss in a few months' time and what
such prospects mean for what they should be doing now. The conscript
soldiers, according to most experts, are unlikely to obey orders from a
defeated dictator to fire on their own people.
This leads to the important question of the police. Milosevic created them
as his praetorian guard because he does not trust the army. The police have
equipment that is similar to that of an army and are, by all accounts,
pampered. But some of them, too, might be asking whether Milosevic will be
their commander much longer and if it is therefore wise to continue to
throw one's lot in with him now. Perhaps the most politically interesting
photo to emerge from Serbia in some time is one published in "Vesti" on 26
September, which showed two uniformed riot police laughing and joking with
a young female opposition supporter. Such a photo would have been difficult,
if not impossible, to imagine just a short time ago.
Meanwhile, calls for Milosevic to respect the election results and to go
quietly have come from many leaders in the Balkans and the West. Russia has
appealed to all Serbs to "respect the law" and show restraint.
The prospect of an armed conflict nonetheless remains, including one that
could involve outside forces. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov hinted
darkly on 27 September that "it is important not to allow destabilization
of the situation, which would play into the hands only of those powers that
are not interested in preserving a single Yugoslavia and restoring its
place in the world arena."
One can only guess at which "powers" he has in mind. Whatever the case,
British Foreign Minister Robin Cook has warned Milosevic "that there is a
very substantial [foreign military] capacity in the region." Turkish
Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu was even more blunt: "If there is a
crisis, there will be an intervention in the same way there was a NATO
intervention in Kosova and Bosnia-Herzegovina in defense of UN values. But
I hope this will not happen." He made his remarks in Koren, Bulgaria, on 27
September.
For now, Milosevic-watchers will be trying to guess the unpredictable
dictator's next moves. As an indicted war criminal, the only place to which
he could in theory flee abroad would be to a so-called rogue state. Some
politicians who know him well--such as Croatian President Stipe Mesic and
Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic--have suggested that Milosevic will
resort to violence rather than give up power. Former NATO commander General
Wesley Clark recently suggested that Milosevic will leave the political
scene only in the same bloody fashion as Romania's Nicolae Ceausescu did.
Local people frequently point out that both of Milosevic's parents
committed suicide and that his wife is believed to have attempted suicide
on more than one occasion.
29-09-00
Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org
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