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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 175, 00-09-11

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 175, 11 September 2000


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION POLITICIAN VOWS TO CAMPAIGN FOR PRE-TERM ELECTIONS
  • [02] INSPECTORS SAY RUSSIAN MILITARY BASE IN ARMENIA CONFORMS WITH CFE REQUIREMENTS
  • [03] ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS REAFFIRM COMMITMENT TO RESOLVE KARABAKH CONFLICT
  • [04] COUNCIL OF EUROPE WARNS AZERBAIJAN OVER JOURNALIST'S ARREST
  • [05] AZERBAIJANI SECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS ARRESTED JOURNALIST SATISFIED WITH JAIL CONDITIONS
  • [06] INTERIOR MINISTER DENIES CHECHENS HAVE TRAINING CAMPS IN AZERBAIJAN
  • [07] RANSOM DEMANDED FOR ABDUCTED GEORGIAN OFFICIAL
  • [08] JEHOVAH'S WITNESSES AGAIN ATACKED IN GEORGIA
  • [09] GEORGIAN SCIENTISTS WARN OF ROCKET FUEL LEAK
  • [10] PENSIONED GEORGIAN POLICE OFFICERS PLAN MASS PROTESTS
  • [11] PROTESTERS BLOCK HIGHWAY IN WESTERN GEORGIA
  • [12] FIRE EXTINGUISHED AT NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN KAZAKHSTAN
  • [13] CIS INTERIOR MINISTER CONCLUDE KYRGYZ MEETING
  • [14] KYRGYZ FORCES REPEL ANOTHER MILITANT ATTACK
  • [15] SEVENTH PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL FAILS KYRGYZ KANGUAGE TEST

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [16] KOSTUNICA DRAWS LARGE CAMPAIGN CROWDS...
  • [17] ...MEETS WITH MONTENEGRIN LEADER
  • [18] ERSTWHILE ALLY WOULD NOT SUPPORT MILOSEVIC IN SECOND ROUND
  • [19] SERBIAN POLICE BEAT STUDENTS, RAID ELECTION OFFICE
  • [20] GREEK FOREIGN MINISTER MAKES STOPS IN KOSOVA, MONTENEGRO...
  • [21] ...IS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR FAIR ELECTIONS
  • [22] CROATIA PRESENTS EVIDENCE AT THE HAGUE
  • [23] MACEDONIA'S OPPOSITION CLAIMING VICTORY
  • [24] BOSNIAN OFFICIALS SACKED FOR OBSTRUCTING RETURNS
  • [25] BOSNIAN PRESIDENT HOSPITALIZED
  • [26] HUNGARIAN POLITICIAN TO RUN IN ROMANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
  • [27] ROMANIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS WITHDRAW FROM RULING COALITION
  • [28] POLICE DETAIN SUSPECTS IN ROMANIAN TRADE UNION LEADER'S MURDER
  • [29] PRIMAKOV SAYS CHISINAU, TIRASPOL ACCEPTED RUSSIAN DRAFT
  • [30] BULGARIA EXPELLS TWO MORE FOREIGNERS

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [31] WILL THE HZDS DITCH MECIAR TO GAIN POWER?

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION POLITICIAN VOWS TO CAMPAIGN FOR PRE-TERM ELECTIONS

    Artashes Geghamian, who heads the nationalist Right and Accord parliamentary bloc, told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau on 8 September that his party plans to collect "hundreds of thousands" of signatures to demand pre- term parliamentary elections. Geghamian claimed that the population no longer trusts the present parliament, elected in May 1999. He said the signature collection campaign will begin as soon as the trial of those accused of the 27 October parliament killings is over. Geghamian held exploratory talks last month on the possibility of cooperation with Stepan Demirchian, chairman of the People's Party of Armenia (HZhK), which is the junior partner in the majority Miasnutiun parliamentary majority faction. But Demirchian subsequently pledged his support for Miasnutiun after Prime Minister Andranik Markarian threatened to strip the HZhK of its remaining goverment posts (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 and 29 August 2000). Geghamian downplayed his failure to establish an alliance with Demirchian, claiming that he nonetheless enjoys the support of "the overwhelming majority of the population." LF

    [02] INSPECTORS SAY RUSSIAN MILITARY BASE IN ARMENIA CONFORMS WITH CFE REQUIREMENTS

    Turkish and German officers who inspected the Russian military base at Giumri in northern Armenia last week said the quantity of military hardware deployed there does not exceed the limits to which Russia is entitled under the revised Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, Noyan Tapan reported on 8 September. LF

    [03] ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS REAFFIRM COMMITMENT TO RESOLVE KARABAKH CONFLICT

    After their meeting in New York on 7 September on the sidelines of the UN Millennium Summit, Robert Kocharian and Heidar Aliev stressed their commitment to a peaceful solution of the Karabakh conflict and underlined the importance to that process of continuing what Kocharian termed the "important and useful dialogue" that they began last year, Noyan Tapan reported. Kocharian conceded that it is premature to speak of concrete results from that dialogue, while Turan quoted Aliev as saying that the talks have yielded no results to date. Kocharian stressed the willingness of both parties to find a solution to the conflict. Aliev, in his address to the summit, argued that it will be impossible to achieve peace and security in the South Caucasus until the "foreign military presence" in the region is withdrawn, meaning the Russian military bases in Georgia and Armenia. LF

    [04] COUNCIL OF EUROPE WARNS AZERBAIJAN OVER JOURNALIST'S ARREST

    Lord Russell Johnston, who is president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, has written to Azerbaijan's parliamentary speaker Murtuz Alesqerov to inform him that the 22 August arrest of Rauf Arifoglu, editor of the opposition newspaper "Yeni Musavat," may delay Azerbaijan's admittance as a full member of the council, Turan and AP reported on 8 and 9 September. Russell Johnston requested clarification of the charges of terrorism and attempted hijacking brought against Arifoglu, noting that "the obligation to guarantee freedom of expression and the independence of the media is a key commitment your country has undertaken to become a member of our Organization." On 7 September, presidential administration official Ali Hasanov said it would not be "a tragedy" if Azerbaijan were not admitted to full membership in the Council. LF

    [05] AZERBAIJANI SECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS ARRESTED JOURNALIST SATISFIED WITH JAIL CONDITIONS

    National Security Ministry press secretary Araz Gurbanov told journalists on 9 September that there is no truth to claims by Arifoglu's lawyer that the detained journalist's rights are being infringed or that an attempt has been made to poison him, Turan reported. Gurbanov said that Arifoglu is allowed to receive books, newspapers, and food brought by his relatives and to hold unlimited meetings with his lawyer, Vidadi Mahmudov. Mahmudov had quoted Arifoglu as saying that he is strip-searched both before and after his meetings with Mahmudov. On 8 September, the committee to defend Arifoglu's rights submitted a request to the Baku municipal authorities to stage protest pickets on 12 and 13 September outside the State Radio and Television building and the Prosecutor-General's Office. LF

    [06] INTERIOR MINISTER DENIES CHECHENS HAVE TRAINING CAMPS IN AZERBAIJAN

    Ramil Usubov told Turan on 9 September that there are no Chechen training camps in Azerbaijan, nor are Chechen fighters undergoing medical treatment in Azerbaijani hospitals. Daghestan's Interior Minister Adilgirey Magomedtagirov had told a cabinet meeting in Makhachkala the previous day that his ministry has determined the names of Azerbaijani doctors who have treated wounded Chechens, according to Interfax. Magomedtagirov had made similar allegations in an interview published in the Azerbaijani independent newspaper "525 gazeti." LF

    [07] RANSOM DEMANDED FOR ABDUCTED GEORGIAN OFFICIAL

    Kidnappers have demanded a $250,000 ransom for Shalva Marchemashvili, a regional official from Georgia's Akhmeta Raion, which borders on Chechnya, Caucasus Press reported on 9 September. Marchemashvili disappeared four months ago. His car was discovered several days later close to a Chechen- populated village whose inhabitants denied any knowledge of his disappearance. LF

    [08] JEHOVAH'S WITNESSES AGAIN ATACKED IN GEORGIA

    Georgian police and security officials fired blank anti-tank shells and used force to disperse an outdoor gathering of Jehovah's Witnesses in the town of Natuliki in northwestern Georgia on 8 September, AP and Caucasus Press reported. A security official told AP the congregation had been warned not to assemble in the town, which lies in the security zone on the internal border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia. LF

    [09] GEORGIAN SCIENTISTS WARN OF ROCKET FUEL LEAK

    Georgian scientists have alerted the government to the threat posed by leakage of rocket fuel stored at former Russian military facilities in Georgia, Caucasus Press reported. According to Institute of Physics and Organic Chemistry director Avtandil Dolidze, there are 120 tons of such fuel stored near the west Georgian town of Khobi and another 480 tons near Kutaisi, "Segodnya" reported on 7 September. Ukrainian officials have suggested that leaks of such fuel are responsible for the mass poisoning in Mykolayiv Oblast (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 September 2000). LF

    [10] PENSIONED GEORGIAN POLICE OFFICERS PLAN MASS PROTESTS

    Some 13,000 former Georgian police officers vowed on 8 September to stage countrywide protests if they do not receive pension arrears for the past 10 months totaling 8 million lari ($4 million), Caucasus Press reported. Also on 8 September, a senior pension fund official told Caucasus Press that total pension arrears amount to 18 million lari and that it is unlikely that arrears for last year will be paid. LF

    [11] PROTESTERS BLOCK HIGHWAY IN WESTERN GEORGIA

    Some 300 people blocked the main east-west highway in Tkibuli, western Georgia, on 11 September to protest electricity cuts and demand that normal power supplies be restored, Caucasus Press reported. LF

    [12] FIRE EXTINGUISHED AT NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN KAZAKHSTAN

    A fire at the Mangyshlak nuclear power plant in western Kazakhstan during the night of 7-8 September was extinguished after two or three hours, Interfax and RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. No damage was reported to the plant's reactor. The cause of the blaze is not known. LF

    [13] CIS INTERIOR MINISTER CONCLUDE KYRGYZ MEETING

    At the end of their annual meeting in Cholpon-Ata, interior ministers from the CIS states signed a joint three-year program of measures to combat terrorism, religious extremism, organized crime, and drug-smuggling, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 8 September. They also agreed to set up an anti-terrorism center in Bishkek, according to AP. LF

    [14] KYRGYZ FORCES REPEL ANOTHER MILITANT ATTACK

    Kyrgyz Defense Minister Esen Topoev told journalists in Bishkek on 9 September that government forces drove back two attempts by Islamic militants to cross the Tajik-Kyrgyz border on the mornings of 8 and 9 September, Interfax reported. He said more than 80 militants and 27 Kyrgyz servicemen have been killed during clashes over the past month. Topoev also said it is not necessary to mount a coordinated large-scale operation by forces from several Central Asian countries in order to neutralize the remaining scattered small groups of militants, according to ITAR-TASS. Meeting with Kyrgyzstan's President Askar Akaev in Bishkek on 8 September following the CIS interior ministers' meeting, Tajik Interior Minister Khumdin Sharipov denied that there are any militants' training camps on Tajik territory or that the militants transit Tajikistan en route from Afghanistan to Kyrgyzstan, ITAR-TASS reported. LF

    [15] SEVENTH PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL FAILS KYRGYZ KANGUAGE TEST

    Businessman and parliamentary deputy Arslan Maliev failed the mandatory Kyrgyz language examination for presidential candidates on 8 September, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. He is the seventh of 19 prospective candidates who has failed to qualify to register for the poll. The previous day, the Central Electoral Commission's Linguistic Commission similarly failed Omurbek Subanaliev, one of two candidates from the opposition Ar- Namys party. The second Ar-Namys candidate, former vice president and Bishkek mayor Feliks Kulov, has not yet sat the examination. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [16] KOSTUNICA DRAWS LARGE CAMPAIGN CROWDS...

    Some 20,000 people turned out in the small western Serbian town of Cacak in a show of support for Vojislav Kostunica, the leading Yugoslav opposition candidate for president, Reuters reported on 8 September. Cacak, with a population of only some 50,000, was the site of the first anti-government rally in July 1999. Kostunica, who has a large lead over Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in opinion polls ahead of the 24 September election, told the crowd that Milosevic's government "insulted you and you need to exact your revenge." He said "not their kind of revenge, but rather in our way--with your pencil and your vote for the truth--not lies." Two days later, leaders of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia, the bloc of parties that nominated Kostunica, continued a 12-day marathon campaign tour of 50 cities and towns by visiting Milosevic's hometown of Pozarevac. Democratic Party head Zoran Djindjic said "we don't accept forbidden cities in Serbia." A crowd of some 300 attended the opposition rally. PB

    [17] ...MEETS WITH MONTENEGRIN LEADER

    Opposition presidential candidate Kostunica met with Montenegrin speaker Svetozar Marovic in Sveti Stefan on 9 September, Reuters reported. Marovic said Montenegro "expects the democratic representatives of Serbia and Montenegro to sit down and arrange all aspects of our union." He said Podgorica is "ready to help the democratic forces in Serbia and Kostunica." Kostunica has criticized the decision by the Montenegrin government to boycott the elections. PB

    [18] ERSTWHILE ALLY WOULD NOT SUPPORT MILOSEVIC IN SECOND ROUND

    Tomislav Nikolic, the ultranationalist candidate for Yugoslav president, said on 8 September that his Radical Party--a coalition partner in President Milosevic's government--would not support the incumbent in a second round of voting for the presidential post, AP reported. Nikolic said the Radicals would support the opposition candidate in such a case. Nikolic also alleged that the government is planning to fix the elections, particularly the vote in Kosova, the Fonet news agency reported. In other news, former Yugoslav President Zoran Lilic confirmed on 8 September that he has resigned from all positions in the government, including that of Milosevic's personal adviser for economic issues. He refused to say why he had resigned, but independent media reported that it is because of his objection to the influence wielded by Milosevic's wife, Mirjana Markovic. Lilic preceded Milosevic as Yugoslav president. PB

    [19] SERBIAN POLICE BEAT STUDENTS, RAID ELECTION OFFICE

    Seven members of the student opposition group Otpor (Resistance) were hospitalized in Vladicin Han on 8 September after being beaten by police, Reuters reported. Aljosa Drazovic of Belgrade's Humanitarian Law Fund said police held the students for questioning after they were detained for posting banners. Shortly after being released, they were taken back to the station and beaten with batons and chains. The ordeal ended after a few hundred people gathered at the station and demanded their release. In Belgrade on 8 September, police raided the offices of the independent Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CESID), removing computers and other materials. According to the CESID's Sobodanka Nedovic, the police said "they were searching for evidence of possible criminal acts." Yugoslav Information Minister Goran Matic said CESID is "an American outpost" and that it "will not be an observer at the elections." He added that no monitors from Western countries considered hostile to Milosevic will be allowed. PB

    [20] GREEK FOREIGN MINISTER MAKES STOPS IN KOSOVA, MONTENEGRO...

    George Papandreou ended a two-day visit to Yugoslavia on 8 September with visits to Kosova and Montenegro, Reuters reported. In Prishtina, Papandreou rejected the idea of independence for the southern Serbian province, saying: "we are not in favor of dividing people but uniting them within a united Europe. We would like to have a multicultural society and we are not in favor of an ethnically-cleansed society." Papandreou met with Kosova's UN administrator, Bernard Kouchner, the commander of the NATO force in Kosova, Lieutenant-General Juan Ortuno, and Serbian and ethnic Albanian leaders. In Podgorica, Papandreou met with Montenegrin Premier Filip Vujanovic, who said the two discussed the situation in Yugoslavia ahead of the election as well as Montenegrin-Greek ties. PB

    [21] ...IS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR FAIR ELECTIONS

    Papandreou warned in Athens on 9 September of "negative effects" if fraud, violence, and other abuses take place during the 24 September presidential and general elections in Yugoslavia, AP reported. Papandreou, who made a controversial visit to Belgrade and spoke with President Milosevic last week (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 September 2000), said: "I can say that the initial messages that we have are not encouraging." PB

    [22] CROATIA PRESENTS EVIDENCE AT THE HAGUE

    A Croatian government delegation visited the war crimes tribunal at The Hague on 8 September to present new evidence in the case of General Tihomir Blaskic, a Croatian commander sentenced by the court to 45 years in prison, AP reported. The delegation, which is headed by Deputy Premier Goran Granic and Justice Minister Stjepan Ivanisevic, met with the tribunal's chief prosecutor, Carla del Ponte, and the tribunal's vice president, Florence Mumba. The delegation's evidence was discovered in the archives of former Croatian President Franjo Tudjman, who died in December. Many believe Blaskic was framed by high- level Croatian officials. The sentence against Blaskic caused outrage in Croatia. It is the longest to be handed down to date by the tribunal. PB

    [23] MACEDONIA'S OPPOSITION CLAIMING VICTORY

    Branko Crvenkovski, the head of the opposition Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, said on 10 September that the opposition is headed for a "great victory" in local elections, dpa reported. Although official results have not yet been made public, Crvenkovski, who is also the head of the opposition bloc For Macedonia Together, claimed that the opposition won the mayoral offices in Skopje, Ohrid, Stip, Kocani, Veles, and Gevgelija. He said he hopes "[Premier Ljubco] Georgievski will fulfill his pledge and call early parliamentary elections." Georgievski had said he would do so if his government coalition lost by more than 10 percentage points to the opposition. Violence was reported in ethnic-Albanian dominated western Macedonia, with eight people injured in clashes between supporters of the ethnic-Albanian opposition Party for Democratic Progress and the coalition partner Democratic Party of Albanians. PB

    [24] BOSNIAN OFFICIALS SACKED FOR OBSTRUCTING RETURNS

    Fifteen Bosnian officials were sacked on 8 September by the international community's high representative in Bosnia- Herzegovina, Wolfgang Petritsch, for obstructing the return of refugees and of seized property, AP reported. A spokeswoman said the 15 "ignored, obstructed, and failed to enforce laws they were tasked to implement, pursuing an extra-legal agenda of abusing their offices." PB

    [25] BOSNIAN PRESIDENT HOSPITALIZED

    Bosnian Muslim leader Alija Izetbegovic was admitted to a New York hospital on 9 September with pneumonia, Reuters reported. Izetbegovic, who currently chairs the country's tripartite presidency, was attending the UN's Millennium Summit. The president, 75, plans to retire next month owing to bad health. PB

    [26] HUNGARIAN POLITICIAN TO RUN IN ROMANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

    Gyorgy Frunda was chosen by the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania's (UDMR) Council of Representatives on 9 September to be its presidential candidate in the elections scheduled for November-December. Frunda was backed by 59 council members, while 34 members voted for UDMR Honorary Chairman Bishop Laszlo Toekes. Toekes's candidacy was proposed by the UDMR's Cluj branch. One day earlier, the bishop announced he was resigning from the Bihor branch and joining the Cluj one. He accused the leadership of the former to have undergone "political and moral decay." For some time, Toekes has been openly challenging the UDMR leadership, headed by Bela Marko. MS

    [27] ROMANIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS WITHDRAW FROM RULING COALITION

    The Social Democratic Party (PSDR) on 8 September announced it is withdrawing from the ruling coalition, following its decision to run on joint lists with the Party of Social Democracy in Romania in the November parliamentary elections and later merge with that party. The National Peasant Party Christian Democratic announced on 9 September it will demand the labor and social affairs portfolio, which will become vacant following Smaranda Dobrescu's resignation from the cabinet last week. But Prime Minster Mugur Isarescu says he has "not yet" accepted Dobrescu's resignation and will discuss it with the leadership of the ruling coalition, Mediafax reported on 10 September. MS

    [28] POLICE DETAIN SUSPECTS IN ROMANIAN TRADE UNION LEADER'S MURDER

    The Iasi police commander on 11 September told workers at the Tepro plant who continue to protest the murder last week of trade union leader Virgil Sahleanu that "the assassins have been identified, questioned, and are under arrest," Mediafax reported. He said the chief suspect was Tepro Director-General Victor Balan and that a total of seven people have been detained. MS

    [29] PRIMAKOV SAYS CHISINAU, TIRASPOL ACCEPTED RUSSIAN DRAFT

    Yevgenii Primakov, chairman of the Russian state commission for the settlement of the Transdniester conflict, told a forum of the Danish Institute for International Relations in Copenhagen on 9 September that the sides involved in the conflict have both accepted the Russian draft as a basis for negotiations, ITAR-TASS reported. Speaking in Chisinau the same day, the Moldovan chairman of the state commission for the settlement of the conflict, Vasile Sturza, said that "considerable progress" has been made in the negotiations. He added that Moldova rejects any "federalization idea" and Tiraspol's claim that the idea is incorporated in the Russian draft is out of touch with reality, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. Sturza said Chisinau insists that the agreement incorporate the 1997 Moscow memorandum stipulating that Moldova is a "sovereign and indivisible state." MS

    [30] BULGARIA EXPELLS TWO MORE FOREIGNERS

    Bulgaria on 8 September expelled another two foreigners. The Interior Ministry said a man from Chechnya and a Georgian citizen were ordered to leave the country. Last week, two Russians accused of involvement in international arms trafficking were deported. MS

    [C] END NOTE

    [31] WILL THE HZDS DITCH MECIAR TO GAIN POWER?

    By Daniel Butora

    Former Slovak Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) is desperately seeking to overcome its isolation on the domestic political scene. In its search for the right partners, it may find some unlikely allies, including Pavol Rusko, who controls the country's main private television station.

    Meciar's personality defined Slovak politics for most of the 1990s and isolated the country internationally (Bratislava failed to receive an invitation to join NATO or to begin "fast-track" negotiations to join the EU). Moreover, his style polarized the country into those forces that supported Meciar and those that opposed him.

    At the same time, Meciar's leadership was a major factor in his party's electoral success. When Meciar announced he was leaving politics late in 1998, the party's popularity was reduced by half. Only after he returned to politics a few months later did it reach its current level of some 25-30 percent. That backing gives the party a clear lead in all national polls, but not enough to win a majority.

    This leaves the party with a dilemma: it cannot remove Meciar, because it depends upon his popularity, but if he remains leader, it cannot put together a coalition government either. Only the radical Slovak National Party, led by Anna Malikova, has openly declared its readiness to revive its alliance with the HZDS.

    The May 1999 presidential elections proved that while Meciar has many supporters in Slovakia, there are many citizens who strongly disapprove of his strong-arm style. Meciar was defeated by Rudolf Schuster in that ballot by a 56 percent to 44 percent margin. Since then, the HZDS has been searching for an arrangement that would allow the party to maintain the popularity it enjoys with Meciar as leader but make it possible for other parties to join the HZDS in a coalition government.

    The HZDS's most likely partner is Smer (Direction) of parliamentary deputy Robert Fico. Once a leading luminary of the postcommunist Party of the Democratic Left (SDL), Fico founded Smer as an alternative to both the HZDS and the four parties in Premier Mikulas Dzurinda's government. Smer quickly became the second most popular party in the country, after the HZDS; and Fico, whom his opponents describe as an indisputable populist, leads in some polls as the country's most respected politician.

    It is interesting that Fico's support comes mainly from those who voted for the current ruling parties but have become disillusioned with Dzurinda's government, although he also receives support from those interest groups that back Meciar, including the nuclear lobby. While such groups would like to see the HZDS and Smer form a government, Fico's supporters would not welcome a deal with Meciar. Fico himself has said he sees no possibility of forming a coalition with Meciar, and he criticizes Meciar as often as he finds fault with the current government.

    In Bratislava's political circles, there has been talk for some time of Meciar's stepping down as head of the HZDS and moving to a position such as party honorary chairman. Such a move could pave the way to a coalition with Smer and possibly other parties in Dzurinda's government. At the same time, such a move would not be without risk. If Meciar were to step down before the elections, the HZDS could lose a significant number of voters.

    Against this background, Pavol Rusko is a potentially key political player. His TV Markiza is the most important entity on the Slovak media scene. It played a crucial role in Meciar's 1998 defeat and remains critical of the HZDS. But that criticism might be directed elsewhere if Rusko were to back Meciar's quitting as head of the HZDS to make room for himself. Rusko is known to be very ambitious, having said he would like to be prime minister one day. In the meantime, he is building his own influential media empire.

    But while some observers believe Rusko might replace Meciar as HZDS chairman, others suggest he might take over as head of one of the smaller parties in the current government, such as the Party of Civic Understanding (SOP), which was established by President Schuster. If Rusko were to become the chairman of the SOP, TV Markiza's positive coverage of the HZDS and Smer might result in a smooth transition of power within the HZDS and the establishment of a new government. As speculative as this may seem, there is already evidence of a warming in relations between Meciar and Rusko.

    The wild card, however, is how the current government parties would react to such a development. Some, including the SDL, might be tempted to join an HZDS-Smer tandem and might even be welcomed into such a grouping. Others, such as Dzurinda's Slovak Democratic and Christian Union, will try to win over Fico to their side.

    The 11 November referendum on early elections, which was organized by the HZDS and recently supported by Fico, will give an indication of the strength of the current coalition. If the necessary 50 percent of the voters fail to turn out to vote, the government will score a political victory and receive the moral support to remain in power for the next two years. If voters cast their ballots in favor of early elections, however, the parliament will have to make a final decision on the elections. In such an event, it will be interesting to see how the various political parties act. But it will be even more interesting to see how TV Markiza covers the story.

    The author works for RFE/RL's Slovak Service.

    11-09-00


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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