RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 105, 00-05-31

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 105, 31 May 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SAYS RUSSIAN BASES CRUCIAL TO REGIONAL

[02] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT SHOOTING SUSPECTS' RELEASE IMMINENT?

[03] ARMENIAN INTERIOR, SECURITY MINISTERS PROMOTED

[04] AZERBAIJAN SEEKS INVESTORS FOR PIPELINE PROJECT

[05] AZERBAIJANI JOURNALISTS PROTEST POLICE AGGRESSION

[06] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT CONFIRMS FOUR MORE MINISTERIAL

[07] RUSSIA CONCERNED AT TERORRISM IN ABKHAZIA...

[08] ...AS ABKHAZ OFFICIAL SAYS CIS PEACEKEEPERS SHOULD STAY

[09] KAZAKHSTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE OIL EXTRACTION...

[10] ...BUILD NUCLEAR REACTOR

[11] ARAB COUNTRIES DENY KAZAKH MEDIA CLAIMS THEY SUPPORT ISLAMIC

[12] PLANNED KYRGYZ ROUNDTABLE IN JEOPARDY

[13] OSCE CHAIRWOMAN VISITS TAJIKISTAN

[14] TURKMEN INTERNET PROVIDER TO DEFY OFFICIAL BAN

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[15] CHIRAC CALLS FOR EU-BALKAN SUMMIT

[16] QUESTIONS REMAIN OPEN ON CHIRAC PROPOSAL

[17] ROBERTSON PRAISES KOSOVA PROTECTION CORPS

[18] SERBS FREE 23 KOSOVARS

[19] SUSPECT ARRESTED IN SHOOTING OF SERBS

[20] MONTENEGRO'S DJUKANOVIC PREDICTS ELECTION VICTORY

[21] BELGRADE CITY GOVERNMENT IN STANDOFF WITH BUS DRIVERS

[22] CROATIA'S MESIC SAYS 'ISOLATION IS OVER'

[23] CROATIAN RIGHT-WINGERS RALLY IN VUKOVAR

[24] ROMANIAN PREMIER SAYS 'FINANCIAL PLOT' BEHIND BANKING

[25] ...AS IMF DEALS ADDITIONAL BLOW

[26] PROSECUTORS QUESTION 'WITNESSES' IN MONEY-LAUNDERING AFFAIR

[27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT COMMENTS ON ELECTIONS, REFERENDUM...

[28] ...MEETS WITH CIS EXECUTIVE SECRETARY

[29] TIMETABLE READY FOR RUSSIAN TRANSDNIESTER WITHDRAWAL?

[C] END NOTE

[30] POLISH COALITION ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SAYS RUSSIAN BASES CRUCIAL TO REGIONAL

In a recent interview with several Russian

journalists broadcast by Armenian National Television,

President Robert Kocharian said the Russian military bases in

Armenia and Georgia have been a crucial guarantee of regional

security and must therefore be incorporated into the planned

South Caucasus security system, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau

reported on 30 May. Kocharian said that system must build on

previous accomplishments in the security sphere and that

Russia should play a major role in it. In late March,

Kocharian had advocated a security system based on the

"3+3+2" format, meaning an agreement between Armenia,

Azerbaijan, and Georgia, with Russia, Iran, and Turkey acting

as guarantors and the U.S. and the EU as sponsors (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 30 March 2000). Earlier this month, the

Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies unveiled an

alternative blueprint under which Russia, the EU, and the

U.S. would affirm their willingness to participate in such a

system, which would be developed by the three South Caucasus

states, together with Turkey and Iran. LF

[02] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT SHOOTING SUSPECTS' RELEASE IMMINENT?

men currently in custody on suspicion of involvement in the

27 October Armenian parliament shootings may be released

shortly, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 30 May. Military

prosecutors on 30 May withdrew their request to a Yerevan

court to prolong the detention of Harutiun Harutiunian, the

deputy director of Armenian National Television, who was

arrested in early January. Parliamentary deputy Mushegh

Movsisian, who was arrested just days after the

assassinations, is also likely to be released. Friends of the

two men say the reason for their imminent release is that the

leader of the five gunmen who carried out the killings, Nairi

Hunanian, has repeatedly failed to provide any testimony

substantiating suspicions of their involvement. According to

unconfirmed reports circulating in Yerevan on 30 May,

Hunanian has retracted much of his earlier testimony. LF

[03] ARMENIAN INTERIOR, SECURITY MINISTERS PROMOTED

Kocharian issued a decree on 29 May promoting Interior

Minister Major General Hayk Harutiunian and Security Minister

Major General Karlos Petrosian to the rank of lieutenant

general, Noyan Tapan reported. Kocharian also promoted to

that rank two deputy defense ministers, Manvel Grigorian and

Yurii Khachaturov. Grigorian is chairman of the Yerkrapah

Union of veterans of the Karabakh war and was appointed

deputy defense minister by Kocharian in March (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 15 March 2000). LF

[04] AZERBAIJAN SEEKS INVESTORS FOR PIPELINE PROJECT

engaged in the Caspian attended a presentation in Baku on 29

May intended to solicit participation in a sponsors' group

that would conduct studies of the optimum route for the

planned Baku-Ceyhan oil export pipeline and seek to identify

investors to fund that project, Interfax and Turan reported.

Addressing the meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem

described the planned pipeline as "one of the most important

elements of the East-West transport corridor." LF

[05] AZERBAIJANI JOURNALISTS PROTEST POLICE AGGRESSION

published condemnations of a police attack on the editorial

office of the newspaper "Bu gun" three days earlier, Turan

reported. Several journalists were beaten during that attack

and a photographer taken into custody for questioning. The

police action was apparently in retaliation for the

journalists' attempt to photograph a scuffle between police

and a group of young men outside a Baku cafe. Two

journalists' organizations and the editors of 17 media

outlets issued a statement on 29 May condemning the police

action and demanding an investigation. LF

[06] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT CONFIRMS FOUR MORE MINISTERIAL

Deputies voted on 30 May to approve the

nomination of David Mirtskhulava, Merab Chkhenkeli, Valeri

Vashakidze, and Mikhail Ukleba as ministers of fuel and

energy. urbanization and construction, refugees and

accommodation, and state property, respectively, Caucasus

Press reported. All four had held those portfolios in the

previous government. The parliament also approved the

nomination by President Eduard Shevardnadze of his former

parliamentary secretary, Sulkhan Molashvili, as chairman of

the parliament Control Chamber. Meanwhile Bakur Gulua, whose

reappointment as minister of agriculture deputies rejected

last week (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 May 2000), told

journalists on 30 May that World Bank representatives plan to

visit Tbilisi in order to clear him of suspicion of having

misappropriated credits allocated by that bank, Caucasus

Press reported. LF

[07] RUSSIA CONCERNED AT TERORRISM IN ABKHAZIA...

Foreign Ministry has issued a statement registering its

concern at the recent increase in terrorist attacks in

southern Abkhazia, Caucasus Press reported on 30 May. Fifteen

Abkhaz police have been killed and four wounded in recent

weeks in such attacks, which the Abkhaz authorities blame on

Georgian guerrillas. The statement said it is essential that

Georgia and Abkhazia sign without delay the draft Agreement

on Peace and the Non-Resumption of Hostilities, which has

been under discussion for almost two years. Also on 30 May,

the Abkhaz parliament in exile rejected the request of its

chairman, Tamaz Nadareishvili, to resign from that post (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 25 May 2000). LF

[08] ...AS ABKHAZ OFFICIAL SAYS CIS PEACEKEEPERS SHOULD STAY

31 May, Caucasus Press quoted Abkhaz presidential aide

Astamur Tania as saying that Sukhum will lobby for the

extension of the CIS peacekeepers' mandate in Abkhazia.

Georgian Minister for Conflict Resolution Malkhaz Kakabadze

had told ITAR-TASS two weeks earlier that Abkhazia wants

those peacekeepers withdrawn, while Tbilisi wants them to

remain (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 May 2000). LF

[09] KAZAKHSTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE OIL EXTRACTION...

plans to quadruple its oil output over the next decade and to

increase that output by 10 percent this year to 33 million

tons, Interfax reported on 29 May, quoting the deputy

president of the Kazakhoil national oil and gas company,

Galiusat Keshubaev. On 30 May, an unnamed spokesman for the

Tengizchevroil joint venture told Interfax that the venture

intends to raise daily production at its huge Tengiz oilfield

to 700,000 barrels per day by 2010. But he added that that

increase is contingent on the timely completion by mid-2001

of the Caspian pipeline from Tengiz to Novorossiisk. LF

[10] ...BUILD NUCLEAR REACTOR

a thermo-nuclear reactor in the town of Kurchatov in East

Kazakhstan Oblast next year, Interfax reported on 30 May. The

project should be completed within three years. LF

[11] ARAB COUNTRIES DENY KAZAKH MEDIA CLAIMS THEY SUPPORT ISLAMIC

The ambassadors of Egypt, Libya, Palestine, and

Saudi Arabia met with Kazakhstan's Prime Minister

Qasymzhomart Toqaev on 27 May to protest Kazakh print media

articles claiming that their countries support "Islamic

extremists," Asia Plus-Blitz reported on 30 May. They

objected specifically to an article in the newspaper

"Karavan" affirming that Saudi Arabia encourages religious

extremism and terrorism. Toqaev undertook to investigate the

issue. LF

[12] PLANNED KYRGYZ ROUNDTABLE IN JEOPARDY

chairman Toktobai Mulkubatov said in Bishkek on 30 May that

his party will not participate in the roundtable scheduled

for 3-4 June between opposition parties, NGOs and the Kyrgyz

government, RFE/RL's bureau in the Kyrgyz capital reported.

He added that there is no point in doing so as participants

do not plan to sign any binding obligations. Communist Party

chairman Absamat Masaliev said the same day that his party

has not yet decided whether to attend the roundtable, but

opposition El (Bei Bechara) party leader Daniyar Usenov vowed

that he will do so. The leadership of the Ar-Namys party

announced last week that it will not attend unless its

detained leaders Feliks Kulov and Emil Aliev are released

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 May 2000). LF

[13] OSCE CHAIRWOMAN VISITS TAJIKISTAN

and OSCE chairwoman in office Benita Ferrero-Waldner told

journalists in Dushanbe on 30 May after talks with President

Imomali Rakhmonov that she believes the OSCE should continue

its post-conflict assistance to Tajikistan, Reuters reported.

ITAR-TASS quoted her as assuring Rakhmonov during those talks

that the multi-party system in Tajikistan is a "positive

factor" that can serve as an example to other states. OSCE

Secretary-General Jan Kubis, a former UN special

representative in Tajikistan, was also present at those

talks. ITAR-TASS quoted presidential spokesman Zafar Saidov

as saying that Rakhmonov expressed the hope that the OSCE

will urge the international community, in particular Russia

and the U.S., to pay greater attention to the Afghan

situation, which, Rakhmonov said, endangers the security of

the Central Asian states. LF

[14] TURKMEN INTERNET PROVIDER TO DEFY OFFICIAL BAN

of Ariana, the leading private telecommunications company in

Turkmenistan, told Reuters on 30 May that he will not comply

with a government order to shut down Internet access to the

company's subscribers. Vagif Zeynalov said that decision is

illegal, pointing out that under recent licensing regulations

it should have been preceded by checks conducted by the

Ministry of Communications. Zeynalov has appealed to the

ministry to revoke the ruling. Meanwhile the Moscow-based

Center for Journalism in Extreme Situations issued a press

release on 29 May saying that the decision to revoke licenses

of private Internet providers was taken without the knowledge

of President Saparmurat Niyazov. This substantiates

observers' impressions that the Turkmen security services are

becoming a law unto themselves (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 May

2000). LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[15] CHIRAC CALLS FOR EU-BALKAN SUMMIT

Chirac said in Paris on 30 May that the EU must adopt a

"decisive strategy for the Balkans." He added that this will

be one of the main themes of the French EU presidency, which

begins on 1 July. The French leader stressed the need to make

Europe "a key player in the world." He argued that "a summit

between the EU and the countries of ex-Yugoslavia that are

most advanced in their democratic evolution would allow us to

clarify objectives and revive a stalling process," Reuters

reported. "The aim would be to support recent developments in

Croatia, welcome the efforts taken by Macedonia, note

progress made in Bosnia, to encourage them to go

further,...and to remind Yugoslavia that the door will be

open to it as well as soon as it joins this movement" toward

democracy and international integration. The president

concluded that "we should tell these countries more clearly

what we expect of them and what we are ready to do to help

them." PM

[16] QUESTIONS REMAIN OPEN ON CHIRAC PROPOSAL

the French president told Reuters in Paris on 30 May that

Montenegrin representatives will be welcome at the summit if

a suitable diplomatic formula can be found to describe their

status there. It is unclear whether Slovenia will be included

or who will represent Kosova. Bernard Kouchner, who is the

UN's chief civilian administrator in Kosova and a former

French cabinet member, has criticized France and several

other countries for failing to supply promised police and

other personnel for the troubled province. It is also unclear

whether non-EU European states or the U.S. will have a role

in Chirac's plans. The "Berliner Zeitung" noted that his

ideas for a joint EU defense projects, including a rapid

reaction force that could be used in the Balkans, "could

easily lead to a stronger distancing" of EU member states

from the U.S. PM

[17] ROBERTSON PRAISES KOSOVA PROTECTION CORPS

General Lord Robertson said in Prishtina on 31 May that he

supports the efforts of the Kosova Protection Corps (KPC) to

promote peace and reconciliation in the province, AP

reported. He made the remarks after meeting with the KPC's

head, General Agim Ceku, who, like most KPC members, is a

veteran of the former Kosova Liberation Army (UCK). Robertson

said: "I will continue to support the KPC, to demand from the

international community the resources that will allow it to

do this valuable civil [defense] job and to support General

Ceku in the role he has of being an influential spokesman for

peace and reconciliation." In response, Ceku argued that the

KPC is not only the main factor in the "reconstruction of

infrastructure but [also in] the reconstruction of society.

We are the only institution in Kosova that is a model for the

future of Kosova," he stressed. PM

[18] SERBS FREE 23 KOSOVARS

on 30 May that Serbian authorities freed 23 ethnic Albanians

from several prisons. The 23 are believed to include six

Kosovars who were sentenced by a Nis court but were freed

because the amount of time they had already served was longer

than the length of their respective sentences, AP reported.

According to the Red Cross, some 1,188 Kosovars remain in

Serbian prisons. PM

[19] SUSPECT ARRESTED IN SHOOTING OF SERBS

unidentified person in the recent drive-by killing of three

Serbs in the village of Cernica (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30

May 2000), a spokesman for the peacekeepers said in Prishtina

on 30 May. He did not elaborate. PM

[20] MONTENEGRO'S DJUKANOVIC PREDICTS ELECTION VICTORY

Milo Djukanovic told an election rally in Podgorica on 30 May

that Montenegro "cannot be run from Belgrade or be happy with

crumbs" from Serbia's table, Reuters reported. He appealed to

voters to support his backers in the 11 June local elections

in Podgorica and Herceg Novi. Referring to his pro-Belgrade

rivals, Djukanovic said: "They are the part of Montenegro

that still allows itself to be manipulated by dictatorial

lies from Dedinje, which imposes the rule of one man and one

woman on the unfortunate nation." Dedinje is the district of

Belgrade where Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and his

wife, Mira Markovic, live. PM

[21] BELGRADE CITY GOVERNMENT IN STANDOFF WITH BUS DRIVERS

Belgrade city government, which is run by Vuk Draskovic's

Serbian Renewal Movement, has revoked the permits for some

300 private bus drivers, "Danas" reported on 31 May. The

municipal authorities argued that the drivers broke their

agreement with the city by launching a strike on 29 May,

forcing thousands of people to walk to work or use taxis. The

drivers want an increase in the price that they are legally

allowed to charge for tickets. The argue that current prices

have not kept pace with inflation. The authorities maintain

that the broader problems of the city's public transportation

system are at least 10 years old and not of the current

government's making. PM

[22] CROATIA'S MESIC SAYS 'ISOLATION IS OVER'

Mesic told the parliament on 30 May that "the isolation of

Croatia is a thing of the past," RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported. He added that Croatia now fully supports

the Hague-based war crimes tribunal as well as "all

activities" of the international community in southeastern

Europe aimed at keeping peace in the region. There is still a

danger to peace from unnamed "dangerous" forces in the

region, he argued. Mesic charged that the previous government

of the late President Franjo Tudjman left a legacy not only

of isolation but also of corruption, dubious privatization

practices, and the theft of public property and wealth. He

called on all citizens to support the government in its

efforts at promoting reform, "Jutarnji list" reported. Mesic

spoke on the Day of Statehood, which marks the opening of

Croatia's first freely elected parliament on 30 May 1990. PM

[23] CROATIAN RIGHT-WINGERS RALLY IN VUKOVAR

wing veterans of the 1990-1995 conflict with Serbian forces

marked the Day of Statehood by holding a rally in Vukovar,

RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Speakers demanded a

general amnesty for all veterans of that conflict from

possible charges of war crimes. Velimir Kvesic, who leads a

veterans' organization and represents the Croatian Party of

[Historic] Rights (HSP) in the parliament, charged that Prime

Minister Ivica Racan wants Serbian refugees to return because

"they are his voters," "Jutarnji list" reported. HSP leader

Anto Djapic commented: "When we come to power, it will be too

bad for the Serbs," "Novi List" reported. PM

[24] ROMANIAN PREMIER SAYS 'FINANCIAL PLOT' BEHIND BANKING

Mugur Isarescu, speaking on Romanian Radio on 30

May, said a "financial plot" by "behind-the-scene

manipulators" is responsible for the current panic among

holders of bank accounts. Isarescu said anonymous phone calls

to depositors at the country's Commercial Bank caused a

"withdrawal panic" that was "unjustified and harmful." He

warned against exchanging savings for dollars, saying that

past experience shows that people find they have made losses

when the exchange rate returned to normalcy. Reports said the

exchange rate has soared from 22,000 lei to $1 to 25,000 lei

and dealers have run out of dollars. Isarescu said that "at

stake is national sovereignty and...economic stability, which

I will defend with all my strength as long as I am

premier...." And he suggested the rumors were started to

dissuade the IMF from approving the resumption of loans to

Romania. MS

[25] ...AS IMF DEALS ADDITIONAL BLOW

suggestion, the IMF announced on 30 May that it is postponing

by two days taking a decision on whether to resume the

disbursement of a $540 million stand-by loan approved last

year and interrupted after the first tranche was released.

IMF spokeswoman Conny Lotze was quoted by Reuters as saying

that the loan, due to expire on 31 May, will be prolonged by

one week. The one-week extension is intended to "allow time

for the Romanian authorities to formulate their policy

response to the recent developments in the financial system,"

according to Lotze. Romania had asked for a nine-month

extension of the loan. Following Isarescu's recent visit to

the U.S. it had been widely assumed that the fund would

approve that request. MS

[26] PROSECUTORS QUESTION 'WITNESSES' IN MONEY-LAUNDERING AFFAIR

laundering affair on 30 May, Party of Social Democracy in

Romania deputy Viorel Hrebenciuc denied being responsible for

a 1992 oil supplies deal signed with a company managed by

Costea. Hrebenciuc said he had not been a cabinet member at

the time, but he admitted having prolonged the contract in

1993, when he was secretary of Nicolae Vacaroiu's cabinet,

"to avoid having Costea suing Romania for the non-fulfillment

of its provisions." Hrebenciuc said trips to France financed

by Costea were aimed at "checking" the number of photo-albums

edited by Costea on the government's behalf. The same day,

Iosif Boda, deputy chairman of Alliance for Romania Party and

manager of Ion Iliescu's 1996 presidential campaign, refused

to tell journalists what he had told investigators about

vacations and hospital treatment in France that Costea had

paid for. MS

[27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT COMMENTS ON ELECTIONS, REFERENDUM...

said he has "no objection" to early presidential and

parliamentary elections taking place at the same time as a

referendum on changing the country's system to a presidential

one. From the legal point of view, however, this would be

possible only if there were an agreement between himself, the

parliament, and "all political forces." Lucinschi said

agreeing on a law on constitutional reform before the

presidential elections is "absolutely necessary" in order for

candidates "to know how they will rule the country after [an

election] victory," Infotag reported. MS

[28] ...MEETS WITH CIS EXECUTIVE SECRETARY

visiting CIS Executive Secretary Yurii Yarov that cooperation

within the organization can improve only if it is

"advantageous for all members," RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau

reported. He added that the first step toward improving

cooperation would be to "define the minimal obligations

binding on all members" and "clarify once and for all the

significance of agreements reached earlier, primarily

economic ones." In this connection, Lucinschi mentioned the

need to implement the agreement on setting up a free trade

zone. Yarov also met with Premier Dumitru Braghis, whom he

informed about the activities of CIS peace keeping units

stationed at the Georgian-Abkhaz border region and about the

differences that still divide CIS members over the Nagorno-

Karabakh conflict. MS

[29] TIMETABLE READY FOR RUSSIAN TRANSDNIESTER WITHDRAWAL?

Romanian Radio on 30 May as saying Russia might present next

week "the final timetable for the withdrawal of its troops

from the Transdniester." In line with the obligations it

undertook at last year's Istanbul OSCE summit, Russia should

have presented that timetable in April. MS

[C] END NOTE

[30] POLISH COALITION ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE

The National Council of the Freedom Union (UW)

voted almost unanimously on 28 May to withdraw its

ministers from the 30-month-old coalition with the

Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS). The following day, UW

leader and Finance Minister Leszek Balcerowicz, Foreign

Minister Bronislaw Geremek, Defense Minister Janusz

Onyszkiewicz, Justice Minister Hanna Suchocka, Transport

Minister Tadeusz Syryjczyk, and four deputy ministers

submitted their resignations to Prime Minister Jerzy

Buzek. In a bid to save the Solidarity-affiliated

coalition, Buzek rejected those resignations, urging the

AWS and the UW "to start talks immediately." Last week,

Buzek had suggested that he is ready to step down.

The pretext for the UW's withdrawal from the

cabinet was Buzek's appointment of a commissioner to run

the Warsaw-Centrum municipality. A candidate supported

by the UW and the opposition Democratic Left Alliance

had won an election for the Warsaw-Centrum mayoralty,

but the provincial governor revoked that election and

asked Buzek to appoint a government administrator, which

Buzek did. The UW accused Buzek of violating the

principles of self-government and of seeking to secure

the AWS's control over Poland's wealthiest municipality.

However, the controversy over the Warsaw-Centrum

commissioner appears to have been the last in a series

of uncoordinated actions in the unhappy UW-AWS

partnership. Some AWS lawmakers have repeatedly sought

to slow down the pace of the painful reforms that the

liberal UW championed in a bid to modernize Poland and

prepare it for EU membership as soon as possible. They

maintain that the AWS is implementing the UW's liberal

economic program while ignoring the electoral pledges

given by Solidarity to workers and farmers in 1989, when

the trade union toppled communism in Poland, and in

1997, when the AWS took over after a leftist government.

Earlier this month, the government lost a

parliamentary vote to introduce a sales tax on farm

products, in line with EU requirements, when two dozen

AWS deputies representing rural constituencies supported

an opposition amendment. "Government decisions were

blocked in the parliament on some essential points while

decisions harmful for the country were forced through,"

Balcerowicz said, explaining his party's loss of

confidence in Buzek as well as in how the coalition has

been run. The UW made clear that the survival of its

coalition with the AWS was dependent on the latter's

designation of a new prime minister, the revoking of the

decision to appoint the commissioner in Warsaw, and

guarantees that the AWS parliamentary caucus would

support coalition positions on which it had agreed

beforehand with the UW.

" We participated in this coalition with the

conviction that it would put Poland in its rightful

place in Europe, promote economic development, and

strengthen democracy and self-government.... These goals

cannot be achieved without ensuring reliable political

support in the parliament," the UW National Council said

in a resolution ordering the party's ministers to pull

out of Buzek's cabinet. But the council also left open

the option of forming a new coalition with the AWS under

a new prime minister if the AWS agreed to negotiations.

Last week, the AWS proposed Bronislaw Grabowski, an

economist without political experience, to head a new

cabinet. Balcerowicz commented that Grabowski is a man

with "strong, clear economic views that are in line with

Poland's needs," but he noted that the AWS must first

ensure parliamentary support for a new premier among its

own lawmakers. On 30 May, however, Grabowski declined

that proposed job, saying that a stronger politician

with the necessary parliamentary support is needed to

steer the coalition out of the current impasse.

Polish commentators generally agree that it is

rather unlikely the current political arrangement will

collapse and early parliamentary elections will be

called, since a presidential ballot is due to take place

this year. But they also point out that the construction

of a new government and the "renewal" of the AWS-UW

coalition would be an extremely difficult task. It

cannot be ruled out that the AWS will have to form a

minority government (the AWS controls 185 seats in the

450-strong lower house). However, such a turn of events

would be very detrimental to the rate at which the

country has been adopting EU-related legislation.

Former Solidarity leader Lech Walesa has urged AWS

leader Marian Krzaklewski to head a new government. On

the one hand, Krzaklewski seems to be a politician

almost certainly capable of uniting the AWS and the UW

around a new cabinet and disciplining those AWS deputies

who vote against the government. On the other hand,

Krzaklewski's possible premiership would almost

certainly rule him out as a contender in the

presidential race. Krzaklewski is thought to have a good

chance of mustering more support from the right wing

than any other candidate.

Tough decisions in the AWS, however, cannot be

avoided. The results of a poll taken in mid-May showed

that the post-communist Democratic Left Alliance, with

41 percent backing, is far ahead of the AWS (14 percent)

and the UW (9 percent). Taking into account that post-

communist incumbent President Aleksander Kwasniewski

enjoys stable support at 60-70 percent, in the coming

months Poland's Solidarity-affiliated forces may lose

much more than simply the opportunity to field a single

and relatively strong right-wing candidate in the

presidential ballot.

31-05-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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