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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 102, 00-05-26Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 102, 26 May 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN NATIONALIST PARTY TURNS AGAINST LEADERSHIPAddressing a congress of his National Accord party on 25 May,chairman Artashes Geghamian criticized the policies of Andranik Markarian's new government, arguing that far greater state involvement is needed to overcome Armenia's current economic crisis, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. "We still don't have a concept of national economic security or a foreign policy doctrine," he complained. But the congress did not discuss whether to vote no confidence in the new government next month. Geghamian had supported the previous government of Aram Sargsian, whose policies Markarian has pledged to continue. Geghamian had been considered a possible successor to Sargsian as premier (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 May 2000). "Azg" reported on 25 May that National Accord's partner in the Right and Accord parliament bloc, the Union for Constitutional Rights, is increasingly unhappy with Geghamian's attacks on the president and government. Right and Accord has seven parliament deputies. LF [02] ARMENIAN RIGHT-WING SEEKS SUPPORT IN SOUTHMembers of therecently created Union of Rightist Forces visited the southern region of Meghri on 23-24 May and appear to have tried to garner support from the local population by suggesting that, contrary to official disclaimers, the Armenian leadership is considering ceding that region to Azerbaijan in exchange for Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenpress and Noyan Tapan reported. Some residents, alarmed by that possibility, have reportedly left Meghri. Democratic Motherland chairman Petros Makeyan claimed that Premier Vazgen Sargsian and parliamentary speaker Karen Demirchian were killed in the 27 October parliament shootings because they opposed such a territorial exchange. A spokesman for President Robert Kocharian denied last week that Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Heidar Aliev, had agreed to such an exchange of territory (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 May 2000). LF [03] U.S. BANK REJECTS ARMENIAN INVESTMENT PROPOSALThe U.S. EximBank has rejected a request by General Motors for a $50 million loan to help finance the production of trucks and minibuses in Armenia, according to "Respublika Armeniya" of 25 May, as cited by Groong. General Motors had committed itself to that project in January1998. Exim Bank cited "economic instability" in Armenia as the reason for its decision. LF [04] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT VISITS GYANJAPresident Aliev traveledon 23-24 May to Gyanja, Azerbaijan's second-largest city, and to Shamkir, where he attended the opening of a hydro-electric power-station partly funded by the EBRD, Turan reported. In Gyanja, only 5,000 of whose 300,000 residents are employed, Aliev discussed social and economic problems with city administrators. Aliev stressed that foreign investment is needed to privatize the city's dormant industrial enterprises, including the aluminum plant, for which he said several foreign bids have been made. LF [05] GEORGIA AGAIN DENIES TALIBAN PRESENCEGeorgian Border GuardCommander Valerii Chkheizde on 25 May rejected as misinformation Russian media claims that Taliban mercenaries are waiting in Georgia to enter Chechnya, Caucasus Press reported. The Georgian Foreign Ministry had issued a similar denial two days earlier (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 May 2000). Speaking in Moscow on 25 May, however, Colonel General Valerii Manilov, who is first deputy chief of the Russian Army General Staff, told journalists that 1,500 men are concentrated in Georgia's largely Chechen-populated Pankisi gorge ready to enter Chechnya, Interfax reported. Manilov added that military defenses are being constructed in the gorge. LF [06] KAZAKH OPPOSITION, PRESS TARGETED FOR REPRISALSIgorPoberezhskii, who is former Kazakh Premier Akezhan Kazhegeldin's press secretary, was stabbed and seriously wounded in Moscow on 25 May, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. On 24 May, film-maker Rashid Nugmanov, a member of Kazhegeldin's Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan, was detained at Almaty airport on his arrival from France, where he has lived for the past seven years, and ordered to report to the Almaty tax police the following day. And on 25 May, police confiscated the entire 26 May print-run (53,000 copies) of the independent weekly "Nachnem s ponedelnika," together with documentation found during a search of the newspaper's Almaty editorial office. LF [07] KYRGYZSTAN DESIGNATES RUSSIAN 'STATE LANGUAGE'TheLegislative Assembly, the lower house of the bicameral parliament, has voted by 43 to two to pass legislation designating Russian an "official language" of the Kyrgyz Republic, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 25 May. The law rules that Russian may be used alongside Kyrgyz, which remains the state language, in all spheres of life. Kyrgyz officials say the legislation is intended to stem the increasing emigration of Russians from Kyrgyzstan, where they currently account for approximately 14 percent of the population (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 May 2000). LF [08] DATE SET FOR KYRGYZ ROUNDTABLEPresidential administrationofficial Arslan Anarbekov told RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau on 25 May that the roundtable discussion between the Kyrgyz leadership and opposition has been scheduled for 3-4 June. He said seven issues are on the agenda, including the results of the February-March parliamentary elections, preparations for the presidential elections to be held later this year, press freedom and human rights, and the role and status of opposition and non-governmental organizations in the political process. LF [09] KYRGYZSTAN'S GUILD OF PRISONERS OF CONSCIENCE REFUSEDREGISTRATIONGuild of Prisoners of Conscience Chairman Topchubek Turgunaliev told RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau on 25 May that the Ministry of Justice has again refused to register that organization. The ministry claimed that no one is persecuted for political motives in Kyrgyzstan and therefore no one can qualify as a prisoner of conscience. The ministry had refused two weeks earlier to register the guild, which was founded in February and has some 100 members, on the grounds that the documentation it submitted contained errors. LF [10] TAJIKISTAN DENIES DIPLOMATS INVOLVED IN KAZAKH DRUGSSMUGGLINGTajik Foreign Ministry official Igor Sattarov told journalists in Dushanbe on 25 May that employees of Tajikistan's Almaty embassy are not involved in drug- smuggling, Reuters reported. He blamed the recent discovery by Kazakh National Security Committee officials of almost 100 kilograms of heroin on the Tajik trade representative in Kazakhstan and a former driver for the Tajik embassy there, neither of whom has diplomatic immunity (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 and 24 May 2000) . LF [11] SECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS TAJIKISTAN COULD REPEL TALIBANTajikSecurity Council Secretary Amirkul Azimov told ITAR-TASS in an exclusive interview on 25 May that his country's armed forces are "ready and capable to rebuff foreign aggression from any state, including Taliban fighters." A Taliban spokesman had threatened on 24 May that any Russian attack on Taliban bases in Afghanistan would trigger reprisals against Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, whose territory Russia would be constrained to use to launch such strikes (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 May 2000). LF [12] UZBEKISTAN DEFINES LIMITS TO MILITARY COOPERATION WITH[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[13] MILOSEVIC SHUTS UNIVERSITIESThe Serbian Education Ministryon 25 May ordered all universities to close the following day, which is one week before the scheduled end of the semester. The ministry's decree added that "students will be allowed to enter schools only on the day of their exams and will not be able to use libraries," Reuters reported. The decree added that "there must be no gatherings or demonstrations at the faculties," AP reported. The opposition Democratic Party said in a statement that the universities have become "forbidden zones." The decree comes on the eve of a planned student strike against the rule of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. Observers suggest the decree indicates that the regime is worried about the growing influence of the Otpor (Resistance) student movement. Unlike the fractious parties of the opposition, Otpor has a broad membership and does not have any highly visible, egotistical leaders. PM [14] PROTESTS CONTINUE IN SERBIASome 2,000 persons attended arally in Belgrade on 25 May, which is the ninth straight day of small protests following the regime's crackdown on non- state electronic media. In Nis, some 2,000 students marched on the police station to protest the government's latest moves against Otpor. PM [15] SERBIA TO ORDER DEATH PENALTY FOR 'TERRORISM'?Serbian DeputyPrime Minister Vojislav Seselj told a Belgrade news conference on 25 May that "anyone carrying out terrorist actions and killing our citizens upon an American order should face death penalty, as well as those who are kidnapping our people," Reuters reported. Yugoslav Deputy Prime Minister Nikola Sainovic, who is an indicted war criminal, called for improved efforts against "terrorism" and noted that a new law to that effect will be ready "within days," "Danas" reported. He added that the law will not apply to Montenegro because the Montenegrin government "openly supports those who carry out terrorism in Serbia," "Blic" reported. The Belgrade regime recently accused Otpor of "terrorism" and routinely calls Kosovar activists "terrorists." PM [16] CLINTON KEEPS SANCTIONS ON BELGRADEU.S. President BillClinton extended for an additional six months the sanctions first imposed on Milosevic's Yugoslavia in April 1999. Clinton said in documents sent to Congress on 25 May: "This situation [presented by Milosevic's policies] continues to pose a continuing and unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy interests, and the economy of the United States," Reuters reported. The sanctions ban the import of Yugoslav goods to the U.S. and export of U.S. goods to that country. Most medicines and agricultural products are excepted. PM [17] HAGUE COURT CALLS SERBIAN LETTER 'PARANOID'Graham Blewitt,who is a deputy prosecutor at the Hague-based war crimes tribunal, said on 25 May that an inflammatory letter from a Serbian minister to Chief Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte "is a sign of paranoia coming out of Belgrade," Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 May 2000). Blewitt added that "the fact the prosecutor has not received the letter, I think, is an indication that it's part of a disinformation campaign, and I expect we'll see more of this in coming weeks and months." PM [18] SERB SENTENCED IN MITROVICASwedish judge ChristerKarphammer sentenced Nebojsa Mutavdzic to six months imprisonment for setting fire to the abandoned house of an ethnic Albanian in 1999. Mutavdzic had pleaded guilty, saying that he was drunk at the time and that three Albanians had provoked him. The judge ordered him released because he has already spent almost 10 months in prison awaiting trial. This is the first trial held in the divided city since NATO took control in 1999. PM [19] DJUKANOVIC WANTS MORE ACTION FROM INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITYMontenegrin President Milo Djukanovic said in Sveti Stefan on25 May that "unlike in Bosnia and [Kosova]...the international community must use preemptive diplomacy and other security measures to prevent another conflict.... As long as Milosevic is in power, we have to be concerned for peace and stability not only in Montenegro but in the region as well," AP reported. Elsewhere, Djukanovic said that he regrets that some unnamed members of the Serbian opposition are not willing to treat Montenegro as an equal partner in the Yugoslav federation, "Vesti" reported. Montenegro's population is roughly one-tenth that of Serbia. PM [20] MESIC: CROATIAN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES TO BE MOREPROFESSIONALCroatian President Stipe Mesic told RFE/RL's South Slavic Service on 25 May that the intelligence services will soon be reorganized (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 May 2000). Their staffs will be reduced and their new managers appointed for their professional qualifications rather than political loyalties. Prime Minister Ivica Racan said that the Croatian Intelligence Service "was a center of political power" under the late President Franjo Tudjman, "Vecernji list" reported. PM [21] TWO CROATIAN NCOS INDICTED FOR ANTI-SERB INCIDENTThedistrict attorney's office in Karlovac on 24 May indicted two of five non-commissioned officers who recently destroyed an anti-fascist World War II monument in the mainly Serbian village of Veljun near Slunj in the Kordun area (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 May 2000). If convicted, the men could face three months in prison or the loss of 100 days' pay. The district attorney ruled that there is not sufficient evidence to indict the other three men. PM [22] COURT INVESTIGATES CROATIAN TYCOONThe Zagreb county courtbegan a criminal investigation on 24 May of Josip Gucic, his son Zvonimir, and five of their associates, AP reported. They are suspected of embezzling some $24 million from the NIK textile company. The elder Gucic owns more than 25 companies in his Gucic Group. He is in Germany, allegedly for medical treatment. Scarcely a day passes in Croatia without new revelations in the media of scandals involving persons close to, or who grew rich during the rule of, the Croatian Democratic Community. PM [23] TWO KILLED, NINE WOUNDED IN CROATIAN GRENADE INCIDENTA 25-year-old veteran of the 1991-1995 independence war pulled the pins on two hand grenades in a post office in Vinkovci on 25 May, killing himself and a postal clerk. Police are investigating the incident. PM [24] PETRITSCH WARNS BOSNIANS: SHAPE UP OR LOSE AIDWolfgangPetritsch, who is the international community's high representative in Bosnia, said in Sarajevo on 25 May that foreign donors' patience is running out with Bosnia because of local officials' failure to enact major reforms. "You need to understand that many people in other countries that are financing [Bosnian reconstruction efforts] have their own problems and they don't want to be bothered with your problems. If they do not see that there is progress in this country then they will put pressure on their politicians to stop the support for Bosnia-Herzegovina," AP reported. Petritsch added that it "is now known all over the world that the politicians here in Bosnia-Herzegovina are doing a lousy job." He stressed that he has not hesitated to use his powers in the past and will not hesitate to do so in the future. He recently sacked 22 officials whom he said were obstructing the implementation of the Dayton peace agreement. PM [25] MUSLIM PARTY STRIPS GANIC OF MEMBERSHIPThe Party ofDemocratic Action (SDA) has expelled from its ranks Ejup Ganic, who has been one of the leading Bosnian Muslim politicians for the past decade. The move comes following Ganic's refusal to resign the post of president of the mainly Muslim and Croatian federation, despite the SDA's recent vote of no confidence in him. Party officials blame him and five other politicians for the SDA's poor showing in the April local elections. PM [26] ROMANIAN PREMIER SEEKS BETTER RATING FOR HIS COUNTRYPrimeMinister Mugur Isarescu met with officials from the Thompson Bank Watch and Standard & Poor's on 25 May to seek an improvement of Romania's country risk status, an RFE/RL correspondent in New York reported. Standard & Poor's officials promised to send a fact-finding team to Romania. Meanwhile, the chairwoman of Sovinvest, the company administering the failing National Investment Fund, , has resigned citing health grounds. Ioana Maria Vlas went into hiding when police opened an investigation into the fund's administration. Also on 26 May, the country's two leading trade unions, the National Sindicate Bloc and Fratia, announced they will set up a joint trade union confederation "of a social democratic orientation." MS [27] ROMANIAN PROSECUTORS QUESTION FORMER OFFICIALSMircea Coseaand Floring Georgescu, former ministers in Nicolae Vacaroiu's cabinet, were questioned on 26 May by Romanian prosecutors about their ties to Adrian Costea in the money-laundering affair, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Cosea, now a deputy chairman of the Union of Rightist Forces, told the prosecutors he knows nothing about either the circumstances of an oil supplies deal cut by companies headed by Costea or the contract under which Costea received money to pay for a photo-album on Romania. Cosea admitted that Costea had paid for three of the former minister's trips to and vacations in France. Georgescu said he "knows nothing" about Costea's commercial affairs and that he was never involved in the deal on oil deliveries. The media speculate that those deliveries were destined for Yugoslavia in violation of the embargo imposed on that country. MS [28] BULGARIA GETS HIGH IMF MARKSIMF First Deputy ManagingDirector Stanley Fischer said in Sofia on 25 May that the fund may soon sign a new stand-by agreement with Bulgaria, AP and Reuters reported. Fischer said that if Bulgaria continues "behaving like an exemplary member of the fund," it is "possible to consider signing a new three-year agreement." In 1998, the IMF approved a $840 million loan for Bulgaria. Fischer said that "serious reforms always take several years to bear fruit" and that since Bulgaria may register a growth of about 4 percent this year, 2000 may be "just that year." MS [29] BULGARIANS REACT DIPLOMATICALLY TO RUSSIAN OBJECTIONS"Bulgaria highly values Russia's respect of its sovereignright to choose the best guarantees for its own national security," Deputy Foreign Minister Marin Raikov told journalists on 25 May. Raikov was responding to a statement by Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Avdeev, who had said in Sofia that his country views "skeptically" the declarations adopted by nine East Central European countries-- among them Bulgaria--in Vilnius last week asking NATO to invite them to become members (see above). Also on 25 May, Gazprom chief Rem Vyakhirev told Prime Minister Ivan Kostov in Sofia that his company rejects Bulgarian demands that the price of gas deliveries be lowered, Reuters reported. MS [C] END NOTE[30] SHIFTING THE BALANCE IN CENTRAL ASIABy Paul GobleIran's new efforts to close its border with Afghanistan appear likely not only to shift the balance of power within and among the countries of Central Asia but also to transform the ties these states have with the Russian Federation and the U.S. If Tehran is successful in blocking the flow of drugs and refugees from Afghanistan into Iran, even more of these two destabilizing forces are likely to flow into the post-Soviet Central Asian states. And such flows are likely to prompt governments there to crack down on their own societies, to tighten security among these states, and to turn to those outside governments ready and willing to help them do so. Those moves, in turn, will transform the geopolitics of the region, especially since both Moscow and Washington have an interest in providing drug interdiction technology--the former in order to expand Russian influence in the region and the latter to prevent the flow of Afghan-produced drugs to Western Europe and the U.S. All three of these converging moves--Iran's decision, Central Asian concerns about border security, and the geopolitical competition between Russia and the U.S.--have been very much on public view so far this year. Last week, the Iranian parliament allocated $116 million to increase security along its border with Afghanistan. The lawmakers took this step both to reduce the number of refugees from the Taliban regime and to block the flow of drugs from Afghanistan into Iran. Tehran has accused Afghanistan of smuggling two- thirds of its annual drug production of 3,000 tons into Iran both to develop an Iranian market and to use that country as a trans-shipment point to Europe. And its politicians have suggested, in the words of one, that this drug trafficking has "driven the eastern Iranian provinces into a state of chaos." Earlier Iranian efforts to block the border have failed because of a shortage of funds and the corruption inevitably accompanying the drug traffic. But Tehran now has more funds available, having received a World Bank loan last week over the objections of the U.S. Moreover, it has compelling domestic and foreign policy reasons for preventing the influx of drugs. Domestically, the Iranian authorities must contend with up to 3 million drug users and the social and medical problems they present. And for foreign policy reasons, an Iran actively fighting drugs is likely to receive more international support, especially in Western Europe. But if Iran is successful, the drugs will still continue to be produced and shipped out, most likely via the still weak states of Central Asia. In recent months and weeks, these countries have begun to step up border security, after a decade in which both regional leaders and major outside powers pressured them to keep the borders as open as possible to promote cooperation. As a result of such pressure, most of the frontiers between these states remain extremely weak. And a new flood of drugs and refugees would almost certainly overwhelm those countries, especially because of the corruption among local officials that would almost certainly follow. That pattern almost certainly will pit each of these countries against the others as they scramble to defend themselves. The most immediate consequence, however, is that the governments there will use the fight against the drug trade and refugees--what some are already calling "Narco-Islam"--to justify ever more repressive policies, an approach that some governments beyond the region may find convincing but one that could leave these regimes even weaker than they are today. During his visit to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin played to the fears of local leaders over Afghanistan to try to win their support for a special Russian role in the region. Arguing that "a threat to Uzbekistan is a threat to Russia," Putin promised to do whatever was necessary to block ideological and criminal influences coming from the south--including unspecified "preventive actions." Putin's remarks were obviously keyed to local concern about the influence of the Taliban. But he also pointedly noted that "there have been attempts to redivide criminal spheres within the post-Soviet space using extremism and international terrorism," terms used to apply to the drug trade and the criminal structures that it supports and spawns. Meanwhile, the U.S. has also demonstrated its interest in combating any expanded flow of drugs northward through Central Asia. In the last two months, Washington has sent the CIA director, the FBI director, and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to the region both to reaffirm U.S. interest in Central Asia and to stress its nervousness about the spillover of Afghan events there. These three actions to combat the Afghan-originated drug trade by Iran, Central Asian governments, Moscow, and Washington simultaneously break down existing alliances and create new ones as all these countries try to figure out how to address the interrelated problems of drugs and crime originating in Afghanistan. At the very least, the fight against the drug trade may, like politics, create some very strange bedfellows. More likely, it will lead to a fundamental rearrangement of the geopolitics of Central Asia and the broader world. 26-05-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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