RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 99, 00-05-23

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 99, 23 May 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PREMIER PLEDGES CONTINUITY

[02] ARMENIA, IRAN DISCUSS REGIONAL SECURITY

[03] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ LEADERS SEEK TO PREVENT ESCALATION

[04] GEORGIAN NGOS CALL FOR PROSECUTOR'S RESIGNATION

[05] NEW KAZAKH ACTING CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF APPOINTED

[06] TAJIK DIPLOMATS IMPLICATED IN DRUG SMUGGLING TO KAZAKHSTAN

[07] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT DEBATES NEW LANGUAGE BILL

[08] NEW KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY ELECTS CHAIRMAN

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] OPPOSITION CALLS BELGRADE RALLY

[10] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO CHANGE FOCUS?

[11] OTPOR SEEKS OFFICIAL REGISTRATION

[12] OSCE: SERBIAN REGIME THREATENS ITS REPRESENTATIVES

[13] SERBIAN JOURNALIST REARRESTED FOR 'ESPIONAGE'

[14] EU HELP FOR MONTENEGRO

[15] THACI: INDEPENDENT KOSOVA STILL THE GOAL

[16] UNHCR SAYS 150,000 NON-SERBS FLED KOSOVA

[17] BELGRADE TURNS BACK MACEDONIANS WITH UNMIK VISAS

[18] CONVICTED BOSNIAN WAR CRIMINAL TESTIFIES AGAINST COMMANDER

[19] COOK SLAMS BOSNIAN LEADERS

[20] YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR BOSNIAN JOINT PREMIER

[21] ROMANIAN PREMIER STARTS U.S. VISIT

[22] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION TO BASIC TREATY WITH MOLDOVA GROWING...

[23] ...WHILE CONDITIONS ARE SET FOR TREATY WITH RUSSIA

[24] ROMANIA TO TEMPORARILY CLOSE POLLUTING PLANT

[25] EBRD DOUBTFUL ABOUT FEASIBILITY OF DANUBE BRIDGE FINANCING

[26] BULGARIAN COALITION OPPOSES INCREASED PRESIDENTIAL POWERS

[C] END NOTE

[27] JAW-JAW OR WAR-WAR?

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PREMIER PLEDGES CONTINUITY

press conference since his 12 May nomination as prime

minister, Andranik Markarian said in Yerevan on 22 May that

the policies pursued by his cabinet will not differ radically

from those of previous governments, Reuters and RFE/RL's

Yerevan bureau reported. Markarian pledged to wage a

merciless struggle against corruption and thefts of state

property and to ensure the "strictest discipline" within the

cabinet as well as close cooperation between the president,

government, and parliament. He also affirmed that "reform

should be the main essence of economic change." LF

[02] ARMENIA, IRAN DISCUSS REGIONAL SECURITY

Foreign Minister Morteza Sarmadi discussed the proposed South

Caucasus security system during a recent meeting in Yerevan

with Armenian President Robert Kocharian, RFE/RL's bureau in

the Armenian capital reported on 22 May. Sarmadi told

journalists on 21 May that Tehran believes that "at the

initial stage," such a system should include only the

countries of the region but that once that system has

developed, other states could join. Kocharian had proposed in

Tbilisi in March that the three South Caucasus states,

together with Russia, Turkey, Iran, the U.S., and the EU,

should be members of such a system (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30

March 2000). Sarmadi added that Kocharian had assured him

that Yerevan will never agree to resolving the Karabakh

conflict by means of an exchange of territory that entailed

ceding its southern district of Meghri, which borders on

Iran. LF

[03] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ LEADERS SEEK TO PREVENT ESCALATION

22 May telephone conversation, Eduard Shevardnadze and

Vladislav Ardzinba assured each other of their shared desire

to avoid a new outbreak of hostilities in southern Abkhazia,

Caucasus Press reported on 23 May. The Georgian newspaper

"Dilis gazeti" on 16 May had quoted the leader of the

Georgia's White Legion guerrilla movement as threatening

reprisals in Abkhazia to mark the 26 May anniversary of

Georgia's 1918 declaration of independence. A representative

of the Abkhaz government in exile, which is composed of

ethnic Georgian officials who fled Abkhazia during the 1992-

1993 war, claimed on 22 May that the Abkhaz authorities had

sent 180 guerrillas to Gali Raion in southern Abkhazia, and

parliament deputy speaker Vakhtang Kolbaya said the same day

that ethnic Georgians are fleeing the district in

anticipation of new fighting. LF

[04] GEORGIAN NGOS CALL FOR PROSECUTOR'S RESIGNATION

representatives of 27 Georgian NGOs staged a demonstration on

22 May outside the state chancellery in Tbilisi to demand the

resignation of Prosecutor-General Djamlet Babilashvili and

his deputy, Anzor Baluashvili, Caucasus Press reported. The

demonstrators accuse the two officials of having warned

television journalist Akaki Gogichaishvili to leave Georgia

or risk being murdered following programs Gogichaishvili

aired on official corruption (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 May

2000). Babilashvili told journalists in Tbilisi on 22 May

that his office has no reason to threaten Gogichaishvili and

that the demands for his resignation are unfounded. Also on

22 May, President Shevardnadze ordered the Interior and

Security Ministries to take all necessary measures to protect

Gogichaishvili and his family. LF

[05] NEW KAZAKH ACTING CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF APPOINTED

Chief of General Staff Malik Saparov has been promoted to

acting chief of General Staff, Interfax reported on 22 May,

citing the Kazakh Defense Ministry. He replaces Bakhytzhan

Ertaev, who was appointed commander of the first army corps

in Semipalatinsk last week. Ertaev had been tried and

acquitted earlier this year on charges of arranging the

illegal sale of 40 decommissioned MiG fighters to North Korea

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 February 2000). LF

[06] TAJIK DIPLOMATS IMPLICATED IN DRUG SMUGGLING TO KAZAKHSTAN

worth some $1 million, together with $54,000 in cash and a

bank check for 1.2 million British pounds ($1.78 million),

from two cars intercepted near Almaty on 21 May, Reuters and

Interfax reported. One of the vehicles belongs to

Tajikistan's Ambassador to Kazakhstan Sadulajan Nigmatov.

Interfax quoted Kazakh security officials as saying that the

heroin was to be delivered to the head of the Tajik trade

mission in Almaty. Five Tajiks have been arrested. ITAR-TASS

on 22 May quoted the Tajik Foreign Ministry as denying any

knowledge of the incident. LF

[07] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT DEBATES NEW LANGUAGE BILL

of the parliament began debating a new state language bill on

22 May, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The new draft

reportedly makes no mention of giving Russian the status of

an official state language, as President Askar Akaev had

proposed to both chambers of parliament last month (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 26 April 2000). But it does stipulate that

no one should be discriminated against for the inability to

speak Kyrgyz, which is currently the sole state language. The

country's language legislation is one of the reasons cited by

ethnic Russians for leaving Kyrgyzstan. LF

[08] NEW KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY ELECTS CHAIRMAN

(Freedom) Party, which split several months ago from the

Erkin Kyrgyzstan (Free Kyrgyzstan) party, held its founding

congress in Bishkek on 21 May and elected as its chairman

Topchubek Turgunaliev, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 8 February 2000). Turgunaliev, who had

founded Erkin Kyrgyzstan in 1990, has served two prison

sentences in recent years on charges of insulting President

Akaev. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] OPPOSITION CALLS BELGRADE RALLY

opposition parties appealed in a statement on 22 May to

people throughout Serbia to attend a rally in Belgrade on 27

May. The meeting's slogan will be: "For Serbia, without

terror and fear--for the freedom of Studio B [Television] and

other media," AP reported. The statement added that the

"resumption of terror against citizens and violence against

media [will] result in a clear radicalization of our

citizens, who increasingly oppose such behavior by the

regime." Elsewhere, lawyer Borivoje Borovic said that a

Belgrade court has sentenced some 31 persons to prison terms

ranging from between 25 to 30 days for their participation in

recent opposition rallies. PM

[10] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO CHANGE FOCUS?

out for a protest rally in Belgrade on 22 May, Reuters

reported. Another 5,000 attended a rally in Cacak, where

Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic spoke against the

tough measures the police use toward demonstrators (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 22 May 2000). Christian Democratic leader

Vladan Batic said in Belgrade that the opposition and the

Otpor (Resistance) student movement are considering changing

the focus of their protests from public rallies to

unspecified forms of civil disobedience. Elsewhere, Vladimir

Goati and Mladjan Dinkic of the G-17 group of economists

charged that the opposition parties have played into the

hands of the regime, which is looking for an excuse to

declare a state of emergency. For that reason, the G-17 will

not participate in protests led by the parties, as opposed to

those led by Otpor, "Danas" reported on 23 May. PM

[11] OTPOR SEEKS OFFICIAL REGISTRATION

Serbian Academy of Sciences and an unspecified number of

other prominent persons from the country's intellectual and

cultural spheres attended a meeting organized by Otpor in

Belgrade on 22 May to sign the "founding charter" of the

student organization. Otpor intends to present the document

to the Justice Ministry shortly as part of the legal

procedure to register that organization. Otpor members feel

that they will deprive the regime of an excuse to ban the

organization if it is legally registered, AP reported.

Several unidentified young men dressed in black attended the

meeting and heckled the participants as "traitors" and

"fascists," which are some of the regime's epithets for its

opponents. PM

[12] OSCE: SERBIAN REGIME THREATENS ITS REPRESENTATIVES

said in a statement in Belgrade on 22 May that Yugoslav

Information Minister Goran Matic recently sent a letter to

Freimut Duve, who is the OSCE's chief representative dealing

with freedom of the media. Matic accused Duve of being an

"accomplice in a crime" by calling for an end to the Belgrade

regime's campaign against the independent media. Matic added

that "support for independent media is defined as 'terrorism

and a crime against a sovereign state.'" He added that "we

have a long memory," AP reported. PM

[13] SERBIAN JOURNALIST REARRESTED FOR 'ESPIONAGE'

court in Nis on 22 May ordered the rearrest of Miroslav

Filipovic for "espionage" and "spreading false information"

because of several articles he wrote for "Danas," AFP, and

the London-based Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR)

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 May 2000). The espionage charge

could carry a stiff penalty and centers on some of

Filipovic's articles for the IWPR. A military prosecutor

asked the court to order Filipovic's return to detention,

from which he was freed on 12 May, Reuters reported. PM

[14] EU HELP FOR MONTENEGRO

Brussels on a $10 million aid package for Montenegro. The

ministers also pledged unspecified future assistance to

promote democracy, freedom of expression, and inter-ethnic

relations in the mountainous republic. Meanwhile in

Podgorica, President Milo Djukanovic said that Bodo Hombach,

who heads the EU's Balkan Stability Pact, recently promised

him that Montenegro will attend the pact's meeting in

Thessaloniki in July as a full participant, RFE/RL's South

Slavic Service reported. Montenegro plans to participate in

some 20 projects that the pact is coordinating, Djukanovic

added. Montenegro, which under international law is part of

federal Yugoslavia and not a sovereign state, has attended

previous meetings of the pact as an observer. PM

[15] THACI: INDEPENDENT KOSOVA STILL THE GOAL

convention of his Democratic Party of Kosova in Prishtina

that independence for the province remains his goal and that

of the party, Vienna's "Die Presse" reported on 23 May (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 22 May 2000). The delegates elected a 61-

member steering committee. "Die Presse" noted that Thaci is

having a difficult time maintaining the support of his former

fighters from the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK). Many more

radical UCK members now back Ramush Hajradani's Alliance for

the Future of Kosova, as do Azem Vllasi and some other former

communist-era leaders. Many moderate UCK supporters and

former backers of Ibrahim Rugova have joined Naim Maloku's

Liberal Center Party. Both Hajradani and Maloku are widely

regarded as heroes of the 1999 conflict. PM

[16] UNHCR SAYS 150,000 NON-SERBS FLED KOSOVA

statistics in Prishtina on 22 May showing that it has

registered some 150,000 Serbs, Roma, and other non-Albanians

who fled the province in 1999. Most left following the end of

the NATO bombing campaign against the Belgrade regime. The

Belgrade authorities put the figure of Serbs who left much

higher and charge that NATO has done little to protect

Kosova's Serbs. Some local Serb and refugee leaders have

accused Belgrade of doing little or nothing to help the

refugees. PM

[17] BELGRADE TURNS BACK MACEDONIANS WITH UNMIK VISAS

authorities have recently denied entry to Macedonian citizens

whose passports contain visas issued for Kosova by the UN

civilian authority in that province (UNMIK). The Macedonians

also received stamps in their passport barring them from

future trips to Serbia. The Belgrade authorities claim that

entering Kosova on a UNMIK visa constitutes illegal entry

into Serbia, dpa reported from Skopje on 22 May. PM

[18] CONVICTED BOSNIAN WAR CRIMINAL TESTIFIES AGAINST COMMANDER

crimes, testified in The Hague on 22 May against former

Bosnian Serb commander General Radislav Krstic. The officer

is charged with ordering the killing of up to 7,500 mainly

Muslim males after the fall of Srebrenica in 1995. Erdemovic

is a Croat married to a Serb. He claims he was forced to take

part in murders or be killed himself. PM

[19] COOK SLAMS BOSNIAN LEADERS

Cook said in Sarajevo on 22 May that Bosnia's "privileged

elites and corrupt political parties" are to blame for the

republic's problems. "I put the blame squarely at the feet of

the leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina," Reuters reported. He

noted that the international community has provided the

republic with more than $5 billion in assistance over the

past five years and sent "hundreds of thousands of

international military and civilian personnel" there. PM

[20] YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR BOSNIAN JOINT PREMIER

joint presidency approved Spasoje Tusevljak as its nominee

for the post of joint prime minister on 22 May. Tusevljak is

an economics professor who owes his nomination to the fact

that he belongs to no political party, "Oslobodjenje"

reported. If the parliament approves him, the next task will

be choosing a joint cabinet (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 April

and 18 May 2000). PM

[21] ROMANIAN PREMIER STARTS U.S. VISIT

a five-day visit to the U.S., has met with U.S. Secretary of

State Madeleine Albright and former Defense Minster William

Perry, who is the joint chairman of the Romania-U.S. Action

Commission, an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington reported on

22 May. Albright praised Romania's contribution to regional

stability. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said

Albright commended Isarescu for his government's

determination to pursue economic reform and congratulated him

on the recent memorandum on reaching an agreement with the

IMF. MS

[22] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION TO BASIC TREATY WITH MOLDOVA GROWING...

that the recently initialed basic treaty with Moldova be

substantially amended, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported.

Earlier the same day, the Civic Alliance Movement distanced

itself from the Moldovan treaty. National Peasant Party

Christian Democratic Senator Ioan Moisin, who initiated the

declaration, said the senators demand that the Molotov-

Ribbentrop Pact be explicitly condemned, that "Bessarabia" be

explicitly recognized in the treaty as being "historical

Romanian territory" whose future fate "can be decided only in

a joint [Romanian-Moldovan] referendum," and that the treaty

be defined as " provisional" and "a stage

[toward]...Moldova's natural unification with the mother

country". MS

[23] ...WHILE CONDITIONS ARE SET FOR TREATY WITH RUSSIA

conditions for a similar basic treaty with Russia, the

signatories to the 22 May declaration are also demanding that

Russia recognize that "Bessarabia" and northern Bukovina are

historic Romanian territories, as are Herta County and the

Serpents Island (all in contemporary Ukraine). They also want

Moscow to return to Romania the treasury held in the Russian

capital since World War I and repatriate to Romania those

people deported from Bessarabia and Bukovina under Soviet

rule. MS

[24] ROMANIA TO TEMPORARILY CLOSE POLLUTING PLANT

Minister Romica Tomescu on 22 May said that the chemical

plant at Turnu Magurele, which has frequently polluted the

Bulgarian town of Nikopol across the Danube River, will be

"temporarily shut down" for repairs. Part of the plant was

closed in November 1999, after ammonia levels in Nikopol

reached 20 times the permitted level, AP reported. MS

[25] EBRD DOUBTFUL ABOUT FEASIBILITY OF DANUBE BRIDGE FINANCING

President Charles Frank, in an interview with RFE/RL on 20

May, said the economic viability of investing in the planned

Vidin-Calafat bridge over the River Danube is "questionable"

and that the EBRD may decide against helping fund the new

bridge, which will link Bulgaria and Romania. But Alexander

Bozhkov, Bulgaria's chief negotiator with the EU, told RFE/RL

that he expects the bank to change its mind after other

backers commit themselves. Both officials were speaking in

Riga, where the EBRD held its annual meeting last weekend. MS

[26] BULGARIAN COALITION OPPOSES INCREASED PRESIDENTIAL POWERS

Petar Stoyanov on 22 May that they are opposed to changing

the status of his largely ceremonial office, AP reported.

Prime Minister Ivan Kostov told journalists after meeting

Stoyanov that "attempts to replace [political] parties" as

the core of Bulgaria's political life are "inadmissible."

Aleksandar Pramatarski, leader of the Democratic Party, said

that the parties constitute "the basic political institution

in Bulgaria" and that his group "vehemently opposes turning

Bulgaria into a presidential republic." Calls for increasing

the presidential prerogatives have come from opposition

politicians and intellectuals. Stoyanov has not made a bid

for more power, but recently he said he lacks the political

instruments for influencing the government's economic

policies and the struggle against corruption. MS

[C] END NOTE

[27] JAW-JAW OR WAR-WAR?

In one of his first statements following his 7 May

inauguration as Russian president, Vladimir Putin said that

the draft law on direct federal rule in Chechnya will be

submitted to the State Duma "in the very near future."

"Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 11 May quoted then acting Justice

Minister Yurii Chaika as saying Putin may issue a federal

decree imposing direct rule even before the Duma passes the

required legislation.

One of the immediate consequences of imposing direct

rule, as the same newspaper pointed out, would be to deprive

Aslan Maskhadov of the status of Chechnya's legitimate leader

and thus obviate the need for any negotiations with him. That

imminent loss of political relevance to Moscow may be one of

the reasons for Maskhadov's recent peace proposals, the

latest of which was unveiled on 8 May. The first phase of

that draft settlement plan, which Maskhadov envisaged being

implemented by 31 May, entails a cessation of hostilities, a

cease-fire, the start of government-level talks, and a broad

amnesty for participants in the fighting. Maskhadov also

proposes that Russian-Chechen military districts be created

and a civilian administration formed. During the second

phase, which would begin six months later, Chechnya would be

demilitarized and control handed back to civilians under the

supervision of the OSCE.

Russian spokesmen, both civilian and military, continue

to insist, however, that the only topic on which talks may be

conducted with Maskhadov are the conditions under which he

and the Chechen fighters whom he claims to control are

prepared to surrender. But there are grounds for suspecting

that Kremlin Chechnya spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembskii's

repeated denials that any such talks are being conducted or

even considered are directed in the first instance at those

Russian generals who are intent on continuing the war until

the last pocket of Chechen resistance is wiped out.

In late April, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" cited the Moscow-

based news agency Svobodnaya Chechnya as reporting that as a

result of direct talks between Maskhadov and the Russian

leadership, a five-point agreement had been reached. Under

that accord, Maskhadov would remain Chechen president; all

Russian servicemen held prisoner in Chechnya would be

released; all Chechen fighters would surrender their weapons,

after which all those who had not participated either in

terrorist acts or hostage-taking would be amnestied; and a

Chechen government would be formed in which Maskhadov's

supporters, the pro-Moscow Chechen diaspora, and

representatives of the Russian population of Chechnya would

be equally represented. But serious disagreements between the

two sides remained, according to Svobodnaya Chechnya, over

Chechnya's future status within the Russian Federation and

the permanent deployment there of Russian troops.

If the information gathered by Svobodnaya Chechnya is

reliable and such an agreement with Maskhadov was indeed

reached, it may have been torpedoed by the two Chechen

ambushes of Russian Defense Ministry forces in Chechnya on 24

and 26 April. And the Russian military will doubtless adduce

the 11 May Chechen attack on a Russian troop column in

Ingushetia to substantiate its argument that the most

effective course of action is to eliminate Chechen resistance

by force, rather than seek a political settlement of the

conflict.

The introduction of direct federal rule has the

advantage of sidelining Maskhadov, whose ability to control

his field commanders is questionable, while allowing the

federal forces to continue their operations to wipe out the

Chechen resistance and permitting Moscow to appoint its own

interim candidate as Chechen leader for the next couple of

years. One of the prospective candidates for that post is

Chechen Mufti Akhmed-hadji Kadyrov, who had proposed the

option of presidential rule for Chechnya to Putin two months

ago. Kadyrov told "Vremya novostei" recently that talks with

Maskhadov are essential in order to persuade the Chechen

president to surrender his powers to the Chechen parliament

elected in early 1997 and "stop hindering [a settlement]." He

said that body includes several dozen deputies with whom

Moscow could embark on negotiations on Chechnya's future

relations with Russia.

Both Kadyrov's logic and that underlining Moscow's

apparent determination to impose direct presidential rule

seems to be based on the assumption that the Chechen military

threat will somehow cease to exist at some point in the near

future. But Moscow's parallel argument that Maskhadov is

incapable of reining in his field commanders undercuts that

assumption. To judge by the recent attack in Ingushetia,

Moscow is more likely to be faced with the threat of

continued Chechen guerrilla attacks not just in Chechnya but

over an increasingly broad geographical area until Chechen

field commanders and their supporters decide that such

tactics are no longer effective. And the sequel is likely to

be that outlined by the Conflict Studies Research Center

Charles Blandy in a superb analysis earlier this year: as

many as three Chechen governments-in-exile, at least one of

which is likely to resort to terrorist attacks against

Russian targets.

23-05-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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