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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 34, 00-02-17Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 34, 17 February 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT EXPECTS CLOSER TIES WITH LEBANONPresident Robert Kocharian said in Beirut on 16 Februarythat he expects his visit will "deepen" the already well- established ties between Armenia and Lebanon, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported. Commenting on military cooperation between Turkey and Israel, Kocharian said Yerevan views it with "certain concerns," and he urged both countries to do more to prove their ties are "not directed against third countries." In other remarks, Kocharian called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. PG [02] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT'S REFERENDUM IDEA DRAWS FIREYerevannewspapers on 16 February attacked President Kocharian's recent suggestion that any peace accord on Nagorno-Karabakh could be put to a referendum, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported. "Haykakan Zhamanak" said this idea "can change the logic of the conflict's settlement," reducing Kocharian's influence on the process. "Aravot," meanwhile, asked why such a vote should be taken in Armenia: "If there is any need for such a referendum, it should be held in Azerbaijan and Karabakh rather than Armenia." PG [03] INCOME GAP WIDENS IN ARMENIAThe average annual income ofthe richest 20 percent of the Armenian population is now 32 times higher than that of the poorest 20 percent, compared with 27 times higher three years ago, according to an Armenian government survey reported by RFE/RL's Armenian Service. But the government noted that these figures do not reflect the large shadow economy or the substantial cash inflows from Armenians abroad. And the government said that despite this widening gap, Armenians are now eating better than they did in 1996, although not yet at the consumption levels of the late Soviet period. PG [04] AZERBAIJAN PLANS TO SELL GAS TO TURKEYAzerbaijani and BPAmoco officials announced on 16 February that Baku plans to sell its own natural gas to Turkey two years from now, Turan and ITAR-TASS reported. The first deliveries from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field are to reach Turkey in the winter of 2002-2003, officials said. PG [05] AZERBAIJAN POLICE ARREST ASSASINATION ATTEMPT SUSPECTBakupolice said on the capital's ANS television station on 16 February that they have arrested Rasim Hasanov, who is suspected of being one of the organizers of the 1995 assassination attempt against President Heidar Aliev. The police said that Hasanov has been in the Russian Federation since 1995. PG [06] RELIGIONS MINISTRY URGED FOR AZERBAIJANYusuf Cunaydin, thedeputy chairman of the pro-government Motherland Party, on 16 February said that various minority religious groups are carrying out "sabotage against Azerbaijan," and he urged that the government create a special ministry for national relations and religions. Other speakers at a conference on religious confessions joined in this recommendation, Azerbaijani Space TV reported, with some noting that the current religious affairs department is "functioning just as it did during the Soviet period. Neither structural nor staff changes have taken place since it was set up." PG [07] GEORGIA CONFIDENT OF RUSSIA'S SUPPORT ON ABKHAZIA AFTERCHECHEN EXPERIENCELevan Aleksidze, President Eduard Shevardnadze's foreign policy adviser, told Interfax on 16 February that "after Chechnya, Russia would not dare to propose at talks that a Georgian-Abkhaz confederate state be created." In other remarks, Aleksidze said that Tbilisi plans a balanced approach in foreign affairs, simultaneously improving ties with Russia and continuing its efforts at integration with Europe. PG [08] OSCE SETS UP OBSERVER MISSION ON GEORGIAN-CHECHEN BORDERUnder the terms of a December 1999 decision, the OSCE issetting up a permanent observer mission on the Georgian- Chechen border, ITAR-TASS reported on 16 February. Georgian President Shevardnadze welcomed the move, saying the presence of such observers will make it possible "to once and for all do away" with suggestions that Islamic militants and weapons are reaching Chechnya via Georgia. PG [09] NAZABAEV SAYS KAZAKHSTAN WON'T JOIN RUSSIA-BELARUS UNION...In a press conference on 16 February, President NursultanNazarbaev said that his country does not intend to join any unions, including the Union of Russia and Belarus, Interfax reported. He said that this is the choice of his nation. In other remarks, Nazarbayev came out against any state interference in the country's banking system and said that the incident concerning the illegal supply of Mig-21s to North Korea is over, the Russian news agency said. PG [10] ...ARGUES KAZAKHSTAN NOT READY FOR LOCAL VOTESAlso on 16February, President Nazarbaev said that his country is not yet ready to elect its local leaders and that those positions will remain appointed ones for the immediate future, Interfax reported. He said that before such elections could occur, Kazakhstan would have to become a law-governed state "where all laws will be effective and court decisions will be unconditionally fulfilled." PG [11] KYRGYZ, UZBEK OFFICIALS DISCUSS 'RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM'Officials from Bishkek and Tashkent have met to discusscooperation in the fight against what they called manifestations of religious freedom, the "Vecherniy Bishkek" website reported on 16 February. One of these officials told the paper that "acts by illegal organizations such as the Hezb-e Tahrir in Fergana or in Adizhan are being repeated in Osh and Bishkek." These sessions are to be followed by a meeting of the special service directors of the two countries. PG [12] BOMB BLAST KILLS DEPUTY MINISTER IN TAJIKISTANA bombexplosion in Dushanbe killed Tajikistan's Deputy Security Minister and parliamentary candidate Shamsullo Dzhabirov on 16 February, Reuters reported. Dushanbe Mayor Makhmadzsaid Ubaidullayev, who was in the same car as Dzhabirov, escaped uninjured. President Imomali Rakhmonov said the bombing attack was "an act of terrorism aimed at destabilizing the socio-political situation before the parliamentary elections," Interfax reported. PG [13] TURKMENBASHI IS COMPUTERIZEDThe COMPAQ computer company,which has provided computers to Turkmenistan's banks, has now given computer software to the country's presidential palace, the Turkmen state news agency reported on 16 February. Meanwhile, President Saparmurat Niyazov pardoned some 1,500 convicted criminals on the occasion of his 60th birthday and the country's Flag Day. Both take place on 19 February. PG [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[14] MONTENEGRO SAYS BELGRADE SETTING UP PARAMILITARIESPresidentMilo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) said in a statement in Podgorica on 16 February that the Yugoslav Army General Staff has transformed a military police unit in Montenegro into a paramilitary one (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 and 15 February 2000). "The Yugoslav Army General Staff is trying to conceal what everybody in Montenegro can see--that the seventh military police battalion is in fact a paramilitary and party formation made up of the staunchest [pro-Belgrade] Socialist People's Party (SNP) structures.... [That unit] has several times more troops than it did during the [1999] NATO air campaign, and it is being trained in skills that could be abused," Reuters reported. Montenegrin government officials have frequently charged that Belgrade has set up paramilitary structures in the mountainous republic in the hope of staging a coup against the Djukanovic leadership. PM [15] FEDERAL AUTHORITIES REOPEN MONTENEGRIN AIRPORTAir trafficofficials reopened Tivat airport on 16 February (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 February 2000). They said in a statement that NATO aircraft had repeatedly entered Yugoslav airspace in the area and endangered the safety of civilian air traffic. PM [16] BELGRADE SETTING UP TELEVISION STATION IN MONTENEGRO?Television transmitting equipment arrived on a militaryaircraft from Belgrade in Podgorica, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 16 February. The daily "Pobjeda" reported that the federal authorities plan to set up their own television station on a military base in northern Montenegro. Information Minister Bozidar Jaredic said that Belgrade has not raised the matter with his government. PM [17] MILOSEVIC PARTY CONGRESS OPENSThe congress of the SocialistParty of Serbia opened in Belgrade on 17 February. Its main purpose is to reshuffle the leadership to present a fresh image ahead of the local elections that are expected in Belgrade and elsewhere later this year. Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic told delegates that the 1999 conflict in Kosova was a victory for Serbia in its "struggle for freedom and independence." Party Secretary-General Gorica Gajevic said that the opposition are traitors. More than 100 buses brought in party faithful from numerous localities across Serbia. The private and independent media were not given accreditation to cover the congress. Several foreign delegations are present, including from Libya and Iraq. Elsewhere, Montenegrin Television reported that several Serbian opposition leaders will attend the inauguration of Croatian President Stipe Mesic in Zagreb on 18 February. PM [18] UCK BLAMES MILOSEVIC FOR KOSOVA VIOLENCEHashim Thaci, theleader of the former Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), said in Prishtina on 16 February that the recent violence in Mitrovica could easily spread to other municipalities in the province. General Agim Ceku, who is the former commander of the UCK and now head of the civilian Kosova Protection Corps, added: "The source of all this violence are Milosevic's gangs. If the international community wants to stop the violence, it has to stop the source as soon as possible," Reuters reported. PM [19] UN APPEALS FOR POLICE FOR KOSOVAAssistant Secretary-GeneralHedi Annabi said in a report that the recent violence in Mitrovica underscores the need for more foreign police in Kosova, AP reported from the UN on 16 February. Only 2,055 police out of a total of 4,718 promised by several countries are currently serving in the province (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 February 2000). Annabi also noted that some 1,600 Kosovars continue to be imprisoned in Serbia. They include several prominent ethnic Albanian activists, such as student leader Albin Kurti. In related news, the UN's Bernard Kouchner said in Mitrovica that another 100 police will arrive in the city by the end of February. Some 27 police arrived there from Peja on 16 February. PM [20] FRENCH MINISTER TO DISCUSS KOSOVA IN U.S.A French DefenseMinistry spokesman said in Paris on 16 February that Defense Minister Alain Richard will travel to Washington within one week to discuss Kosova. The spokesman added that Richard wants to "explain our views to the Americans, who are giving out some information which, from our point of view, is questionable," Reuters reported. He did not elaborate. Elsewhere, Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine said that "France is not at the root of the difficulties that have been encountered [by peacekeepers in Mitrovica].... France has agreed to be on the frontline [by stationing its forces there], which explains why the French are being targeted" by armed Serbs and Albanians. PM [21] ANNAN NAMES NEW BOSNIAN POLICE CHIEFUN Secretary-GeneralKofi Annan appointed France's General Vincent Coeurderoy to head the UN police force in Bosnia. He replaces Detlef Buwitt, who returns to Germany. The 1,900-strong UN force trains and "monitors" local Croatian, Muslim, and Serbian police, AP reported. PM [22] EU OUTLINES TASKS FOR CROATIAForeign Minister Tonino Piculatold "Jutarnji list" of 17 February that the EU wants the government to decide within one month how it will enable ethnic Serbian refugees to return home. EU officials also told him during his recent visit to Brussels that they expect a clear plan from the government on improving relations with Bosnia and on depoliticizing state-run Croatian Television. He said that the EU's support for the new government has been stronger than Zagreb had expected. Picula added that it will take some time to clarify Croatia's legal obligations toward the Hague-based war crimes tribunal. He stressed that the Justice Ministry has many tasks before it. The ministry will have to deal with several unspecified problems before it can tackle the question of relations with The Hague. Picula added, however, that the government will soon begin direct talks with Chief Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte. PM [23] ALBANIA GETS FIRST OMBUDSMANThe parliament on 17 Februaryelected law professor Emir Dobjani as Albania's first-ever ombudsman. The position was provided for in the 1998 constitution at the recommendation of the OSCE. The ombudsman will investigate citizens' complaints against officials in a country where the government is widely regarded as inefficient and corrupt, Reuters reported. PM [24] ROMANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER QUITS DEMOCRATIC PARTYVictorBabiuc on 17 February announced he is resigning from the Democratic Party, of which he was a deputy chairman, because he has felt "more and more isolated within the leadership of a party with whose policies I find it more and more difficult to identify," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Babiuc said he is ready to quit his ministerial post if the party wants him to do so. Democrats' spokesman Dumitru Marinescu said Babiuc's move was a "surprisingly cynical act." Democratic Party Deputy Chairman Traian Basescu said on Romanian Television that Babiuc had the opportunity to resign before the formation of the new cabinet, headed by Mugur Isarescu, and that the move was likely triggered by his realization that he would not be nominated for leadership positions at the party's national conference later this week. Mediafax reported Babiuc may join the National Liberal Party. MS [25] CYANIDE POLLUTION BACK TO ROMANIAThe pollution caused bythe spill into a tributary of the Tisa River has now returned to Romania. Romanian Radio reported on 17 February that water supplies in Drobeta Turnu Severin, on the banks of the River Danube, were halted the previous day, and fishing in the river has been prohibited. Cyanide concentration in the waters of the Danube was some 20 times higher than normal. Meanwhile, police in Baia Mare launched a criminal investigation into the Aurul company, which caused the spill. Foreign Minister Petre Roman, responding to Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban's statement one day earlier (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 February 2000), said he "fails to comprehend the logic behind suing Romania before the joint experts' commission has finalized its investigation." He appealed to Budapest "not to attempt to politicize the issue." MS [26] WORLD BANK, IMF SPECIFY CONDITIONS FOR RESUMING AID TOMOLDOVARoger Grawe, World Bank director for Moldova, told journalists in Chisinau on 16 February that the bank is ready to resume aid to Moldova if an agreement is reached with the IMF and if the privatization process continues, Infotag reported. Richard Haas, who recently headed an IMF mission to Chisinau, said the fund will resume loaning if the government meets the provisions of the memorandum of understanding agreed with Dumitru Barghis's cabinet. He said the parliament must pass legislation for the privatization of the wine and tobacco industries and for the reform of the energy sector. Haas said that "if everything is on track" by 31 March, the IMF will disburse a $35 million tranche in May, Infotag reported. MS [27] BULGARIA EXPECTS TO JOIN EU BEFORE 2007Taking part in theopening of the EU enlargement negotiations in Brussels on 15 February, Foreign Minster Nadezhda Mihailova said her country expects to accede to the EU before the end of 2006. She said that Bulgaria has made "significant progress" in meeting EU membership criteria and that the negotiations with the union are "a strong incentive" for pursuing the membership goal "with even more determination," BTA reported. Mihailova said Bulgaria is ready to start negotiations on 12 chapters of the EU Charter. President Petar Stoyanov said in Botevgrad the same day that following the start of membership negotiations with the EU, the country must "acquire a new frame of mind." "We must meet those criteria that would make Bulgarian goods competitive, first on the European, and then on the global market," he said. MS [C] END NOTE[28] KOCHARIAN'S KARABAKH STRATEGY CHALLENGED BY HARD-LINE RIVALSBy Emil DanielyanTwo years ago, then Armenian President Levon Ter- Petrossian took the public by surprise by announcing his resignation under pressure from key ministers unhappy with his conciliatory line on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Masterminding a behind-the-scene effort to remove him was Robert Kocharian, then prime minister and the current president. Now it looks as though Kocharian may find himself in the same situation as his predecessor, as hard-liners show reluctance to make major concessions to Azerbaijan. The Yerkrapah Union of veterans of the Karabakh war, a group that controls many power structures in Armenia, has warned that no peace solution will work unless the union approves it. At a high-profile meeting on 5 February, Yerkrapah leaders signaled their unwillingness to see most Armenian-occupied territories in Azerbaijan returned to Baku's control--a major condition for peace. Kocharian has moved promptly to dispel Yerkrapah's concerns, promising that he will not make any deals on Karabakh "single-handedly." He even said in televised comments late last week that a possible settlement with Azerbaijan might be put to a nationwide referendum. Yerkrapah, supported by the Armenian government and parliament, may have been reassured by the president for now. However, its warning is a sign of more difficulties ahead in the peace process. For the past year, domestic opposition to a compromise solution to the Karabakh conflict was thought to be far stronger in Azerbaijan than in Armenia. But recent developments suggest that a backlash is no less likely on the Armenian side. A catalyst for Yerkrapah's outburst of anger was speculation in the Armenian press that Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Heidar Aliev, are considering an exchange of territories as a means of ending the dispute. Under such a swap, Yerevan would secure Karabakh's de jure secession from Azerbaijan in return for ceding a stretch of land linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan exclave, sandwiched between Armenia and Iran. This is totally unacceptable to Yerkrapah and most Armenian political parties. Kocharian revealed in his television address last week that such an idea was floated by the OSCE mediators but categorically rejected by him. The unease over that proposal highlighted broader Yerkrapah concerns about future concessions to Azerbaijan and, in particular, the fate of seven Azerbaijani districts around Karabakh that Armenian forces occupied during the 1991-1994 war. The official Armenian position has been that all but one of those districts will be returned, but only if Baku agrees to relations with Karabakh on an equal footing. The Lachin district, which provides the shortest overland connection between Armenia and the disputed enclave, is not up for negotiation, according to Yerevan. For hard-line elements in Armenia and Karabakh, this is too soft a position. They believe the lands "liberated by blood" are vital to national security and should not be traded for peace. The question of the occupied territories was at the heart of differences between Ter-Petrossian and Kocharian in February 1998, when the latter insisted they should be returned only after Karabakh's final status is internationally determined. The ex-president, for his part, backed an international peace plan whereby the handover would precede a decision on the future status of the enclave. In November 1998, the Kocharian administration persuaded the OSCE to put forward new proposals that envisaged a "package" solution to the conflict, as opposed to the previous "step-by-step" strategy. The new plan reportedly upheld Karabakh's de facto independence in a loose "common state" with Azerbaijan. It was largely backed by Armenian leaders, including Vazgen Sargsian, the late prime minister and Yerkrapah's founder, and was obviously the best the Armenians could get from the international community. Sargsian's five months as government head must have been enough for him to acquire first-hand knowledge of the country's enormous socio-economic woes and to understand the potential benefits of peace. And there was no question of Sargsian failing to win the support for that peace deal of his Yerkrapah loyalists, many of them molded by the war, given that his moral authority among them was unquestionable. But things have changed since Sargsian and seven other officials were shot dead in the 27 October attack on the parliament. There now seems to be nobody who could rein in Yerkrapah. Current Prime Minister Aram Sargsian, Vazgen's inexperienced brother, is not considered a political heavyweight, and there is a large question mark over the ability of the Republican Party of Armenia, Yerkrapah's political wing that controls parliament, to act on its own. The parliament attack has weakened Kocharian, who has come under fire from the late premier's allies, some of whom have called for his resignation. On 5 February, Kocharian again felt the chill of Yerkrapah's disapproval. Kocharian's every move on Karabakh will likely be treated with suspicion, at the very least. How Yerkrapah will behave when the time comes to make critical decisions is difficult to say. But it is already clear that the Armenian president no longer has a free hand in deal-making. The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Yerevan. 17-02-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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