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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 28, 00-02-09Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 28, 9 February 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT, POLITICAL PARTIES DISCUSS COUNCIL OFEUROPE MEMBERSHIPAt an 8 February meeting with President Robert Kocharian, the leaders of political parties represented in the Armenian parliament agreed unanimously on amending the country's legislation in order to expedite Armenia's full membership in the Council of Europe, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The proposed amendments will be enacted before a 7 March meeting at which the council's political committee will make a recommendation on whether Armenia qualifies for full membership. On 1 February, citing a positive assessment of Armenia's progress by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Armenian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Hovannes Hovannisian had told deputies that Armenia will be granted full membership in the council before the end of this year. LF [02] ATTACK ON AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTY WIDELY CONDEMNEDMeeting in Baku on 8 February, representatives of 10Azerbaijani opposition parties condemned the attack the previous day on the headquarters of the Musvat Party, blaming the Azerbaijani authorities for the incident, Turan reported, Abulfaz Elchibey, chairman of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, which was not represented at that meeting, similarly condemned the violence as "an act of state terrorism." Turan quoted U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Stanley Escudero as expressing "concern" about the attack after his 8 February meeting with Musavat Party chairman Isa Gambar. LF [03] GEORGIA'S MOST WANTED 'TERRORIST' NOMINATED FOR PRESIDENCY...Former Georgian Security Minister Igor Giorgadze, whom theGeorgian authorities say masterminded for the August 1995 car bomb attack on parliament chairman Eduard Shevardnadze, has been nominated as a candidate for the 9 April presidential poll, Caucasus Press reported on 9 February. In extensive interviews last December with two Russian newspapers, Giorgadze, whose whereabouts have been unknown since he fled Georgia shortly after that attack, claimed that up to 85 percent of the Georgian population reject Shevardnadze's policies and are prepared to vote for Giorgadze. Giorgadze also claimed to have the support of 60 percent of the army and 60-70 percent of Interior Ministry and Security Ministry personnel. LF [04] ...AS ARE THREE OTHER CANDIDATESThree other people haveannounced their intention of contending the 9 April Georgian presidential poll, raising the total number of potential candidates to 10, Caucasus Press reported on 8 February quoting Central Electoral Commission officials. One of them, Gia Chkhikvadze, 43, is a member of the board of the Ilia the Righteous Society and a former supporter of the late Zviad Gamsakhurdia. Chkhikvadze was imprisoned in 1992-1993 after the latter's ouster. The second is Tengiz Asanidze, 56, who is currently serving a prison sentence in Adzharia for misappropriating state funds despite having been pardoned by Shevardnadze. And the third is philologist Gaioz Mamaladze, 36, who is a member of the Union of Georgian Nationalists. LF [05] KAZAKHSTAN'S PREMIER UNDER A CLOUD?An unconfirmed andunsourced report by the Eurasia Analytical Research Center predicts the imminent dismissal of Prime Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev, RFE/RL's Almay bureau reported on 9 February. According to that report, Toqaev engaged in lobbying on behalf of the U.S. Access Industries Company even before his appointment as prime minister in October 1999. The report also claimed that during a visit last month to Moscow, Toqaev agreed to sell a 50 percent stake in the Severnyi Coal Mine in Pavlodar Oblast to Russia's Unified Energy Systems (EES). But "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 21 January offered a totally different perspective, characterizing Toqaev as well thought of by President Nursultan Nazarbaev and as one of a very few politicians in Kazakhstan not constrained by "clan" ties and loyalties. The newspaper also noted the success of Toqaev's cabinet in liquidating pensions arrears and in securing fourth-quarter industrial growth of 6.9 percent. LF [06] KAZAKH OPPOSITION DEMANDS ACCESS TO STATE MEDIAAt a pressconference in Almaty on 8 February, members of the opposition parties aligned in the Forum of Democratic Forces demanded that the opposition be granted one hour of air time on state radio and television on a regular basis, RFE/RL's bureau in the former capital reported. LF [07] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT CALLS FOR EXPEDITING AGRICULTURAL,LAND REFORMAddressing a cabinet session on 8 February, President Nazarbaev criticized declining productivity in the livestock sector and the failure to liquidate bankrupt farms, Interfax reported. In an indication that, after long hesitation and despite public opposition, Kazakhstan may move to privatize land, Nazarbaev also argued in favor of liberalizing legislation to give private farmers the right to use the land they lease as a pledge on the land market. Some 75 percent of agricultural land in Kazakhstan is leased to individual farmers or private farms, "Obshchaya gazeta" reported in September 1999. LF [08] OSCE EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER KYRGYZ ELECTION CAMPAIGN...In astatement issued in Vienna on 8 February, the OSCE has expressed concern that a number of opposition parties and prominent candidates have been barred from contesting the Kyrgyz parliamentary poll scheduled for 20 February, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Austrian capital. The statement in particular deplored the rejection of the party list submitted by the Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan. Mark Stevens, who is spokesman for the OSCE election-observation mission in Bishkek, told RFE/RL that those decisions "restrict the right of political parties to stand in the election on an equal basis and put into question their right to choose their candidates." He said that as a result, the choice available to voters will be narrowed. LF [09] ...AS KYRGYZ PRESIDENT CALLS FOR FAIR POLL...At a meeting inBishkek with local governors and with Constitutional Court Chairwoman Cholpon Bayekova on 8 February, Kyrgyzstan's President Askar Akaev affirmed that the poll must be free and fair, RFE/RL's bureau in the Kyrgyz capital reported. Akaev warned local administrators to stop harassing opposition candidates and called on the Office of the Prosecutor-General to guarantee voters' rights to participate in a fair poll. He added that he has asked law enforcement bodies to review unspecified cases in which political parties or individual politicians were refused registration to contest the election. LF [10] ...AND CENTRAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION DENIES UNFAIR HARASSMENTKyrgyzstan's Central Electoral Commission Chairman SulaimanImanbaev denied in Bishkek on 8 February having created obstacles to the registration of opposition politicians, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Imanbaev said that the refusal to register the party list of the Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan was not a political decision but rather the logical consequence of that party's failure to conduct its most recent congress in accordance with the law (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 February 2000). Meanwhile the leaders of four Kyrgyz NGOs have addressed an appeal, entitled "Give People a Right to Choose!" to the country's leadership and the Central Electoral Commission. The signatories protest the refusal to register opposition candidates for "minor technical reasons." LF [11] TAJIK PRESIDENT CALLS FOR RENEWED EFFORTS TO RESOLVE AFGHANCRISISMeeting with the UN secretary-general's special representative on Afghanistan, Francesc Vendrell, in Dushanbe on 8 February, Imomali Rakhmonov again affirmed that there are no alternatives to a peaceful solution to the civil war in Afghanistan, Asia Plus-Blitz reported. Rakhmonov called for a renewed effort by the countries of the so-called Six Plus Two Group (Russia, the U.S., China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) to broker a peace agreement between the Taleban and the opposition alliance. It is unclear whether Rakhmonov commented on Kyrgyz President Akaev's recent proposal that his country join the Six Plus Two Group (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 February 2000). LF [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[12] SERBIAN OPPOSITION WARNS OF 'ANARCHY'...A spokesman for theopposition Christian Democratic Party said in Belgrade on 8 February that the killing of Defense Minister Pavle Bulatovic shows that Serbia faces "total anarchy and the road to despair," Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 8 February 2000). Munich's "Sueddeutsche Zeitung" wrote that unnamed opposition leaders regard the murder as evidence that "no one is safe" in Serbia any longer. Officials of some opposition parties in Vojvodina said they expect the authorities to use the killing as an excuse to implement martial law, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. There have been at least 15 unsolved killings of prominent persons in Serbia over the past 10 years. Bulatovic was the highest- ranking individual among them. PM [13] ...WHILE REGIME PARTIES SEE WESTERN PLOTA spokesman forVojislav Seselj's Serbian Radical Party said in Belgrade on 8 February that the killing was the work of either U.S., U.K., or French intelligence agents. The United Yugoslav Left, which is led by Mira Markovic, who is the wife of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, called the killing evidence of the "United States terrorist threat" to Serbia. Milosevic's Socialist Party blamed "terrorism." Yugoslav Information Minister Goran Matic told "Danas" that the murder was part of a "terrorist network" aimed at "destabilizing our country." Neither he nor any of the party officials provided any details of their respective claims or offered any evidence to substantiate them. The government has not made an official statement. The regime-controlled daily "Politika" reported that the killer "fired three bursts and vanished into the dark." PM [14] U.S. BLASTS SERBIA...U.S. Undersecretary of State ThomasPickering said in Madrid on 8 February that the killing of Bulatovic suggests Serbia is headed for a "sort of long- knives confrontation," which is an allusion to the bloody power struggle among Germany's Nazi leaders during their first years in power. In Washington, State Department spokesman James Rubin called the murder further evidence that Serbia is run by a clique of "criminals." He added that Serbia is descending into a climate of "fear and violence." PM [15] ...PRAISES CROATIAReferring to Stipe Mesic's election aspresident of Croatia on 7 February, Rubin said: "We believe his victory, combined with Prime Minister [Ivica] Racan's naming a multi-party government last week, will strengthen relations between the United States and Croatia and help Croatia serve as a pillar of stability and democratic development throughout the region." Similar messages praising Mesic's victory and expressing hope for the future of democracy in Croatia came from London, Paris, and Berlin. In Sarajevo, the joint presidency issued a statement expressing hope that Mesic's election will lead to an improvement in relations between the two neighboring former Yugoslav republics. PM [16] MESIC SAYS CROATIA MUST SOLVE DISPUTES WITH NEIGHBORSMesictold "Le Monde" of 8 February that Croatia must clear up its differences with Slovenia over the delimitation of frontiers in the Gulf of Piran as a prerequisite to improving relations with the EU and NATO. He added that Zagreb must also resolve the status of the Prevlaka peninsula. Mesic argued that Croatia should negotiate the matter directly with Montenegro and not with the federal Yugoslav authorities. He praised Montenegro's efforts to distance itself from Serbia and predicted that the mountainous republic will eventually become independent. PM [17] RACAN SAYS NO MORE 'PARALLEL STRUCTURES' IN CROATIAPrimeMinister Ivica Racan's government made it clear in its 33- page program that it will not tolerate any independent sources of power among state institutions, "Vecernji list" reported on 9 February. The document calls for a strengthening of democracy, the rule of law, and the role of elected institutions. The government plans to spend less money on defense and the police and more on education, culture, and research than did its predecessor. Observers note that the intelligence agencies and the military operated virtually as laws unto themselves during the rule of the Croatian Democratic Community from 1990 to January 2000. PM [18] MONTENEGRO, BOSNIAN FEDERATION DRAW CLOSERMontenegrin PrimeMinister Filip Vujanovic and his Bosnian federal counterpart, Edhem Bicakcic, agreed in Sarajevo on 8 February that Montenegro will soon open a commercial information office in the Bosnian capital (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 February 2000). The two prime ministers also agreed to improve cooperation in transportation, commerce, tourism, and electrical energy supplies. PM [19] BOSNIAN SERB PARLIAMENT PASSES KEY LEGISLATIONThe RepublikaSrpska parliament has passed a law regulating the customs service, "Oslobodjenje" reported on 9 February. The legislature also approved measures aimed at setting up an ombudsman's office, thereby meeting a key precondition for Bosnia's admission to the Council of Europe. Prior to the parliamentary session, Nenad Suzic of the Socialist Party agreed to assume the post of deputy prime minister. His appointment appears to end an acrimonious dispute between Prime Minister Milorad Dodik and several Socialist leaders, which had threatened to split the governing coalition. PM [20] KOUCHNER AGAINST 'PARALLEL STRUCTURES' IN KOSOVABernardKouchner, who heads the UN's civilian administration in Kosova, said in Prishtina on 8 February that his is the only authority in the province. He added that he will not tolerate any "parallel structures" established by either the ethnic Albanian majority or the Serbian minority (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 4 February 2000). He specifically warned that Zoran Andjelkovic, who is Milosevic's former governor of the province, may live in Kosova if he chooses but only as "an ordinary citizen." PM [21] ROMA ORGANIZATIONS SUE ROMANIAN JOURNALISTSeveralorganizations representing the Roma minority in Romania have filed charges against journalist Marcel Flueraru from the daily "National" for using racist language in an article published in that daily, AP reported on 8 February. Presenting Roma as "delinquents" is very common in the Romanian media. Flueraru, however, used the term "darkies" and called the Roma "aggressors" who act "as if they had rabies." Also on 8 February, deputy Madalin Voicu, who was elected to the parliament on one of the lists of the Roma minority, announced he is joining the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR), Mediafax reported. He said PDSR chairman Ion Iliescu and Executive Deputy Chairman Adrian Nastase have promised support for his demand that poor Roma families be given 1 hectare of land. MS [C] END NOTE[22] UKRAINE MOVES TOWARD AUTOCRACYby Jan MaksymiukBy choosing Ivan Plyushch as new parliamentary speaker on 1 February, the center-right majority made the standoff in the Ukrainian parliament even worse. A compromise between the two warring factions seems very unlikely, since the leftist minority--composed of the Communist Party, Socialist Party, Progressive Socialist Party, and Peasant Party caucuses--is demanding that the majority revoke all former decisions and submit them to a repeat vote by the entire house. The majority, meanwhile, wants its opponents to accept a fait accompli. The standoff advanced even further down an irreversible path on 4 February when President Leonid Kuchma signed into law two bills passed by the majority three days earlier--one abolishing the holiday commemorating the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, the other renumbering independent Ukraine's legislatures to make the current Supreme Council the third rather than the 14th one. The latter bill is believed to be a ruse on the part of the majority to avoid the dissolution of the parliament should the 16 April constitutional referendum result in a popular vote of no confidence in the Supreme Council. In such a situation, some commentators suggest, the vote will affect only the "old" legislature, that is, the leftist minority. In other words, the president will "dissolve" the leftist faction, leaving the center-rightist one untouched. Whatever Kuchma's true intentions, both factions of the parliament are now fully at the mercy of the president. If they fail to reconcile their differences by mid-February, Kuchma may disband the legislature under the constitutional provision stipulating such a punitive measure if lawmakers are unable to convene a session within 30 days. Even if both factions were to unite for a session, the parliament will still face a dissolution threat in two months, following the April referendum (which many regard as a mere formality in passing a vote of no confidence in the legislature as a whole). This dual threat is sufficient to make the majority deputies approve all bills required by the executive. However, the current parliamentary crisis seems in danger of going far beyond the immediate need to create a docile legislature that can approve a 2000 budget and vote for a number of reforms. Many analysts argue that not the only the current parliament but also the future of parliamentarism in Ukraine may be doomed if the constitutional referendum gives Kuchma the go-ahead to amend the constitution. What is more, collateral damage in the standoff and the referendum may take the form of growing public distrust in independent Ukraine's constitutional system. In fact, that system may be subject to significant reconstruction without having had a chance to secure its foundations. There are even some majority deputies who feel that the resolutions adopted by their faction, including those on the parliamentary leadership, are unconstitutional and unlawful because they were adopted without consent of the legally elected speaker and outside the parliamentary building. If those decisions are enforced by the president in practice, they may spark a crisis of the legislative power's legitimacy similar to that in neighboring Belarus. The only difference will be that whereas Belarus has removed its center-rightist opposition from the political process, Ukraine will seek to do the same with its leftist forces. If Kuchma decides to disband the parliament and call new elections, the country--which is under the immediate threat of financial bankruptcy and social upheaval--will become engaged in yet another turbulent political campaign, meaning that the resolution of urgent socioeconomic problems will once again be postponed, if not dropped altogether. In that case, it will become highly probable that a presidential dictatorship will be introduced in Ukraine. The idea that it is possible to move toward a market economy with the help of a dictatorship is not new, but it has so far not been put to the test in the post-Soviet area. Indeed, the example of Belarus suggests that a post-Soviet dictatorship would serve to push the country backward as far as possible. On the other hand, many in Ukraine, including both political elites and ordinary citizens, may be longing for the rule of a "strongman," especially as Ukraine's "experiments with democracy" over the past nine years have proved so ineffective in the economic sphere. But with Kuchma in Kyiv (like Lukashenka in Minsk) running the country by means of decrees and edicts, Ukraine will put itself at risk of losing the West's material and moral support. Some cynics may argue that since Kuchma's policy of seeking rapprochement with the West is not Lukashenka's "back-to-the-USSR" drive, the West will not abandon Kyiv as quickly as it did official Minsk. Therefore, in the short term, autocracy for Ukraine might not prove as bad as some fear. Unfortunately, the country's problems cannot be resolved in a year or two. And this means that autocracy in Ukraine could become not only an emergency measure but a preferred way of ruling for many years. 09-02-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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